Lessons from the Crisis - Minimal Elements for a Fiscal Union in the Euro Area
|
|
- Jonathan Douglas
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Lessons from the Crisis - Minimal Elements for a Fiscal Union in the Euro Area Discussant Rolf Strauch, Member of the Management Board, Paris, 10 September 2013
2 Lessons from the crisis elements for a fiscal union Key questions: What are the minimal elements of a fiscal union that would reduce the incidence and severity of future crises? What architectural changes towards deeper fiscal integration are needed to close the gaps becoming apparent in the crisis? The paper provides: A thorough and comprehensive analysis Based on deep knowlege of current policy debate in the Euro area Therefore we find a number of agreeable lessons and policy recommendation The paper could be even more convincing, if it would sharpen the analysis in proving the effectiveness and efficiency of larger fiscal capacity at the center for crisis prevention and mitigation. 1
3 Lessons from the Crisis Lessons from the crisis = Causes of the crisis Large county-specific shocks have remained prevalent Member States did not fully accept the policy constraints of being in EMU - Weak fiscal policy Structural rigidities - labour and prices Market failure - mispricing of risk Combination of lack of fiscal discipline and financial weaknesses exacerbated the sovereign-banking link Deeper financial integration lead to stronger contagion after the start of the crisis?? 2
4 Lessons from the Crisis Macro-economic Imbalances Macroeconomic divergence emerged as a consequence of the structural change marked by the inception of EMU and misaligned economic policies. Current account balance as share of GDP Nominal unit labour costs, whole economy (2000=100) 150 Germany Ireland Greece Spain Italy Portugal Source: Eurostat 3
5 Lessons from the Crisis Financial Integration and Contagion The increasing perceived risk among financial institutions was preceded and accompanied by a process of financial disintegration,. 4
6 Lessons from the Crisis and may have been driven by a high degree of uncertainty about bank balance sheets and general concerns about the financial stability of the euro area Cumulative returns on basket of safe assets eurozone banks stocks Source, Bloomberg, ESM calculations Note: cumulative returns of DE/US 10 year yields, Gold, EUR visavis CHR, JPY, NOK, euro area consumer goods visavis the index and high US dividend firms visavis S&P 500 5
7 Minimal Elements of Fiscal Union European Policy Initiatives European Member States have taken a broad set of initiatives to address the causes of the crisis and prevent future incidents or mitigate the impact. - EFSF/ESM (incl DBR Instrument) Euroa area financial / fiscal support - SRF - ECB non-standard MP measures (incl. OMT) Regulation/ Governance - Two Pack; Six Pack; Fiscal Compact - ESIs, ESRB - Bank regulatory strengthening (Basel III, EBA) - SSM - BRRD/SRM - State Aid Regulation Risk reduction / crisis prevention Risk sharing / crisis mitigation 6
8 Minimal Elements of Fiscal Union - What else? - Better governance and more fiscal capacity at the center - EFSF/ESM (incl DBR Instrument) - SRF Euro area financial / fiscal support - ECB non-standard MP measures (incl. OMT) - Rainy day fund - Unemployment insurance - Euro area budget - Two Pack; Six Pack; Fiscal Compact - ESIs, ESRB - BRRD/SRM - State Aid Regulation Regulation/ governance - Bank regulatory strengthening (Basel III, EBA) - SSM - Credible no-bail out rule - Centralized fiscal decision-making Risk reduction / crisis prevention 7 Risk sharing / crisis mitigation
9 Governance Bail-out The financial crises has brought a fundamental change to the financial market view on default risk and bail-out. 10-year government bond yields 35 DE ES IT GR IE FR AT BE NL PT FI Note: Monthly averages Latest observations: August 2013 Source: Bloomberg 8
10 Governance Bail-out Art 125 plus ESM Treaty provisions (ESM sustainability check in line with IMF practice) plus the introduction of CACs provide a credible no bail-out regime. In practice, implementation of PSI/bail-in in Greece and Cyprus support the credibility of a no nobailout claim in the context of a rescue package. Asking for the easing of PSI eg with an automatic regime of debt-equity conversion for sovereigns bonds or very low CAC levels may itself add to market volatility and liquidity shortage. Financial markets have already adjusted to this reality (euro area countries are traded as credit risk), but an underpricing of risk may nonetheless occur due to a hunt for yield and ample liquidity Non-linearities and volatility of future market reactions when uncertainty emerges cannot be excluded. 9
11 Governance Centralized Authority Given the continued limitations entailed in market discipline, sufficient central control to address fiscal weaknesses and macro-imbalances will remain key. Current initiatives are very far-reaching in strengtheing rules and imposing central control if strictly implemented Reinforcing the Stability and Growth Pact Automatic consequences if 3% deficit ceiling is breached More emphasis given to debt criterion Reversed voting in Council eliminates possibility for political interference New Fiscal Compact Annual structural public deficit shall not exceed 0.5% of nominal GDP Balanced budget rule to be introduced in national legal systems Reinforced surveillance and coordination of economic policies European Court of Justice monitors implementation European Semester : yearly cycle of economic and fiscal policy coordination Country-specific recommendations; priorities include growth-friendly fiscal consolidation New focus: avoid spill-overs Better understanding and more experience needed to judge what governance changes are a necessary condition to create the minimum elements for crisis prevention and risk reduction. 10
12 Fiscal capacity Sizeable firepower available for crisis mitigation First Greek support package Adjustment programmes for Ireland and Portugal (EU) Second Greek support package including PSI ESM Commitments from Europe 53 bn 97 bn 144 bn 500 bn Still available - 16 bn 11 bn 456 bn Additional resources provided by Europe to IMF ECB Securities Market Programme Available for disbursement In addition, 182 bn 181 bn 220 bn - 1,196 bn 665 bn ( 7% of GDP ) ECB provides unlimited liquidity to banks ECB may conduct unlimited bond purchases on secondary market (OMT) EFSF can leverage resources if requested 11
13 Fiscal Capacity Crisis prevention The existing capacity has proven to be effective in calming financial markets. Euro area experience raises questions on the additional confidence effect of a stabilisation fund ( % of GDP). Combination of elements: The current OMT arrangement combines in principle unlimited resources with EFSF/ESM financial support and conditionality, while past policy reforms have shown their effect, and the banking union project has been designed and approved Declining long term government bond yields DE ES IT OMT announcement 1 0 Jan.12 Apr.12 Jul.12 Oct.12 Jan.13 Apr.13 Jul.13 12
14 Fiscal capacity - crisis mitigation Using a euro area vehicle to issue bonds in order to stabilize financing costs for member states and secure market access is valuable for crisis resolution. This is in a nutshell the financial role of EFSF/ESM. Low EFSF/ESM lending rates and favourable lending conditions provide sizeable support or implicit grant element to borrowing countries. Support structure Amount (EUR bn) Lending/Borrowing capacity (EU bn) Rating EFSF Guarantees (440) AA+/Aa1/AA+ ESM Capital AAA/Aa1 EU Budget 960 ( ) 1) 60 (EFSM) 50 (BoP) AAA/Aaa/AAA Note: 1) in value of 2011; MFF Source: EFSF, ESM, Moody s 13
15 Fiscal Capacity Crisis prevention and mitigation The efficiency of a fiscal insurance system may vary strongly across types of shock. It is a fairly blunt tool to address causes of the crises related to balance sheets of financial institutions compared to other approaches. Bank capital requirements/bail-in Linked to investment decision and business plan Fiscal Insurance Scheme Enforced on general taxpayer Institution specific Rules based related to bank balance sheet Supporting general government Rules based linked to economic performance Close supervision of needs (technical entity) Subject to political process 14
16 EFSF and ESM: Variable and efficient set of instruments Mission : to safeguard financial stability in Europe by providing financial assistance to euro area Member States Instruments Loans Primary Market Purchases Secondary Market Purchases Precautionary Programme Bank recapitalisations through loans to governments* - EFSF and ESM finance their activity by issuing bonds or other debt instruments - All financial assistance is linked to conditionality * Including in non programme countries 15
17 Fiscal capacity The role of financial integration The potential of financial integration as an insurance mechanism was not sufficiently developed in EMU compared to other fiscal federations. The euro area banking system has remained more fragmented than bond or money markets. The problem during the crisis was the financial disintegration due to uncertainty and possible contagion risks. This was partly reinforced by public authorities Action by national supervisors State aid regulation Regulatory initiatives and banking union is designed to overcome financial weaknesses thereby removing the uncertainty about bank balance sheets. This should help to support sustained financial integration. Sustained financial flows and continued financial integration seem to be the predominant and necessary element to mitigate efficiently future crises. In light of existing federal structures, it may have the largest potential as risk sharing mechanism. 16
18 Minimal Elements of Fiscal Union - Conclusion The paper provides a number of useful insights regarding the causes of the crisis and the role of risk reduction and risk sharing in monetary union. The mutualisation of fiscal responsibility through a fiscal insurance mechanism could add to the general functioning of monetary union if linked to clear policy conditionality to address moral hazard. Building a case for fiscal insurance as a crisis prevention and mitigation mechanism requires more clarity on its economic effectiveness and efficiency in view of existing crisis resolution mechanism. The political priority at this stage should be to focus on the strict application of the improved governance structure and the completion of the banking union project. 17
19 DISCLAIMER IMPORTANT: YOU ARE ADVISED TO READ THE FOLLOWING CAREFULLY BEFORE READING, ACCESSING OR MAKING ANY OTHER USE OF THE MATERIALS THAT FOLLOW. This presentation (the Presentation ) has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of the European Financial Stability Facility (the EFSF ) & the European Stability Mechanism (the "ESM"), and has not been verified, approved or endorsed by any lead auditor, bookrunner or underwriter retained by EFSF or ESM. The Presentation is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute, or form part of, any offer or invitation to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire or dispose of, or any solicitation of any offer to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire or dispose of, any debt or other securities of EFSF or ESM (the Securities ) and is not intended to provide the basis for any credit or any other third party evaluation of Securities. If any such offer or invitation is made, it will be done so pursuant to separate and distinct offering materials (the "Offering Materials") and any decision to purchase or subscribe for any Securities pursuant to such offer or invitation should be made solely on the basis of such Offering Materials and not on the basis of the Presentation. The Presentation should not be considered as a recommendation that any investor should subscribe for or purchase any Securities. Any person who subsequently acquires Securities must rely solely on the final Offering Materials published by EFSF or ESM in connection with such Securities, on the basis of which alone purchases of or subscription for such Securities should be made. In particular, investors should pay special attention to any sections of the final Offering Materials describing any risk factors. The merits or suitability of any Securities or any transaction described in the Presentation to a particular person s situation should be independently determined by such person. Any such determination should involve, inter alia, an assessment of the legal, tax, accounting, regulatory, financial, credit and other related aspects of the Securities or such transaction. The Presentation may contain projections and forward-looking statements. Any such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause EFSF s or ESM s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Any such forward-looking statements will be based on numerous assumptions regarding EFSF s and ESM s present and future strategies and the environment in which the EFSF or ESM will operate in the future. Further, any forward-looking statements will be based upon assumptions of future events which may not prove to be accurate. Any such forward-looking statements in the Presentation will speak only as at the date of the Presentation and EFSF and ESM assume no obligation to update or provide any additional information in relation to such forward-looking statements. The Presentation must not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of EFSF or ESM. The Presentation is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. EFSF (RCS Luxembourg B153414) and ESM, with their registered office and seat respectively at 6a, Circuit de la Foire Internationale, L-1347 Luxembourg 18
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Klaus Regling, CEO of EFSF 40 th Economics Conference OeNB Vienna, 10 May 2012
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis Klaus Regling, CEO of EFSF 40 th Economics Conference OeNB Vienna, 10 May 2012 Eight reasons for sovereign debt crisis Member States did not fully accept
More informationEurope s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Christophe Frankel, CFO of EFSF ICMA Conference, Milan 24 May 2012
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis Christophe Frankel, CFO of EFSF ICMA Conference, Milan 24 May 2012 The reasons for sovereign debt crisis 1 Member States did not fully accept the political
More informationIs the Euro Crisis Over?
Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin 17 January 2014 Europe reacts to the euro crisis at national and EU level A comprehensive
More informationHow Europe is Overcoming the Euro Crisis?
How Europe is Overcoming the Euro Crisis? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM University of Latvia, Riga 3 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did not fully accept
More informationTowards a Stronger EMU: Recent Developments in Monetary Policy and EMU Governance Reform
Towards a Stronger EMU: Recent Developments in Monetary Policy and EMU Governance Reform Gilles Noblet Deputy Director General DG International and European Relations European Central Bank Presentation
More informationIs the Euro Crisis Over?
Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva 25 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did
More informationThe Greek crisis and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Abstract The financial crisis of is considered by many economists to be the
The Greek crisis and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Abstract The financial crisis of 2007 2008 is considered by many economists to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the
More informationFINANCIAL STABILITY SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH
The European sovereign debt crisis and the future of the euro Peter Bekx European Commission i Tokyo, 30 November 2012 1 A Vicious circle FINANCIAL STABILITY SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH 2 Breaking the
More informationThe ECB and its Watchers XIII. Klaus Regling CEO of EFSF Frankfurt, 10 June 2011
The ECB and its Watchers XIII Klaus Regling CEO of EFSF Frankfurt, 10 June 2011 Is the real economy disconnected from financial market developments? 3 Real GDP per capita growth (changes in percent) 2
More informationChronology of European Initiatives in Response to the Crisis 1,2
Chronology of Initiatives in Response to the Crisis 1,2 Michaela Hajek-Rezaei 3 Oct. 6/7, 2008 Oct. 8, 2008 The EU finance ministers agree on a coordinated response to the financial crisis. The Ecofin
More informationThe Greek. Hans-Werner Sinn
CESifo, a Munich-based, globe-spanning economic research and policy advice institution Forum june 215 Special Issue - Update The Greek Tragedy Hans-Werner Sinn This document contains updated graphs and
More information1. Sustainable public finances and structural reforms for growth
Over the last three years, we have taken unprecedented steps to combat the effects of the world-wide financial crisis, both in the European Union as such and within the euro area. The strategy we have
More informationOvercoming the crisis
Overcoming the crisis Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM The Economist Conference: The Big Rethink for Europe The Big Turning Point for Greece Athens, 9 July 2014 EFSF/ESM and Greece: partnership and
More informationEuro Summit Statement (26 October 2011)
Euro Summit Statement (26 October 2011) Caption: At their meeting on 26 October 2011 in Brussels, the Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the euro zone manage, after tough negotiations,
More informationEMU Architecture: Where do we stand? ETLA Conference, Helsinki, 16 /10/2012 Jean Pisani-Ferry
EMU Architecture: Where do we stand? ETLA Conference, Helsinki, 16 /10/2012 Jean Pisani-Ferry Building site.. And then? Outline 1. Known unknowns and unknown unknowns 2. Assessing the policy response 3.
More informationA Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU
A Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU Launching a European Debate Marco Buti Director General DG Economic and Financial Affairs European Commission The European response: Breaking the negative feedback
More informationDiscussion of Marcel Fratzscher s book Die Deutschland-Illusion
Discussion of Marcel Fratzscher s book Die Deutschland-Illusion Klaus Regling, ESM Managing Director Brussels, 30 September 2014 (Please check this statement against delivery) The euro area suffers from
More informationEU: crisis, reactions and the EIB
INTERNATIONAL BANKING FORUM 2013 Brescia, 13-14 June 2013 Markus BERNDT Head of Division, Policy + Strategy, Economics Department European Investment Bank m.berndt@eib.org Economist for Italy: Luca Gattini,
More informationTowards a Reform of E(M)U
Towards a Reform of E(M)U Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Lars P. Feld University of Freiburg and Walter Eucken Institut.ECB Watchers, Frankfurt,14th March 2018 17 18 GCEE proposal Maastricht 2.0 : Necessary elements
More informationA Fiscal Union in Europe: why is it possible/impossible?
Warsaw 18 th October 2013 A Fiscal Union in Europe: why is it possible/impossible? Daniele Franco Chiara Goretti Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance This talk FROM non-controversial aspects General
More informationThe European Economic Crisis
The European Economic Crisis Patrick Leblond Teaching about the EU in the Classroom Centre for European Studies Carleton University, 25 November 2013 Outline Before the crisis European economic integration
More informationREPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON BORROWING AND LENDING ACTIVITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2014
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 10.7.2015 COM(2015) 327 final REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON BORROWING AND LENDING ACTIVITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2014 EN EN
More informationREPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON BORROWING AND LENDING ACTIVITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2016
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 23.11.2017 COM(2017) 682 final REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON BORROWING AND LENDING ACTIVITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2016 EN EN
More informationThe euro crisis and the new impossible trinity
The euro crisis and the new impossible trinity Moneda y Crédito Symposium, Madrid, 3 November 2011 Jean Pisani-Ferry (Bruegel)* (*) With thanks to Silvia Merler for excellent research assistance Outline
More informationThe economic crisis and the move towards new economic governance of the EU
The economic crisis and the move towards new economic governance of the EU Fritz Breuss JSPS EU-Japan Joint Seminar wiiw Rethinking Regional Integration in the Light of the Current Crisis: East Asia and
More informationCan the euro still be saved? Morning session: the threats
Can the euro still be saved? Morning session: the threats Anton Brender and Florence Pisani Berlin, June 17 1 Fiscal and monetary policies: some problems have not yet been fully fixed! Budget balance Budget
More informationEurozone crisis and its impact on Ukraine
Eurozone crisis and its impact on Ukraine Presentation for Round Table of the European Business Association (EBA) Dr. Ricardo Giucci, German Advisory Group/Berlin Economics Kyiv, 30 August 2012 The Euro
More informationVerso l Unione Bancaria Europea
Verso l Unione Bancaria Europea Ignazio Angeloni Conferenza in onore di Marco Onado Modena, 15 gennaio 2014 1 My idea of a bank before knowing Marco Onado 2 Twenty years later Narrow monetary union: one
More informationEconomic and Financial Affairs Committee. The EMU: challenges and the way forward
Economic and Financial Affairs Committee The EMU: challenges and the way forward May 2013 1 1 Background (1) 2007-2008 U.S. sub-prime crisis: excessive risk-taking including opaque securitization & housing
More informationREPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON BORROWING AND LENDING ACTIVITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2013
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 21.8.2014 COM(2014) 529 final REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON BORROWING AND LENDING ACTIVITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2013 EN EN
More informationEUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKETS
EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Brussels, 14 January 2011 ECFIN/E/E1 EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKETS - RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICY OPTIONS - Note for the attention
More informationECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION IKV BRIEF 2010 THE DEBT CRISIS IN GREECE AND THE EURO ZONE
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION IKV BRIEF 2010 April 2010 Prepared by: Sema Gençay ÇAPANOĞLU (scapanoglu@ikv.org.tr) THE DEBT CRISIS IN GREECE AND THE EURO ZONE Greece is struggling with the most serious
More informationEurozone crisis and its impact on Belarus
Eurozone crisis and its impact on Belarus Seminar at the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus Robert Kirchner Minsk, 8 October 2012 The Euro crisis = An ugly combination of public debt, banking
More informationIndependent Central Banking in times of crisis
Independent Central Banking in times of crisis The Eurosystem CEMLA: XI Meeting of Central Bank Legal Advisers Santiago, Chile Content A.The Eurosystem s response to the crisis B. The Eurosystem Framework
More informationThe ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank
The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank The views expressed herein are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the European
More information34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May 2012 - Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU Plan of the Presentation 1. Fiscal and economic coordination: how did it start? 2. Did it work? 3. Five
More informationSpanish position on strengthening the EMU
Spanish position on strengthening the EMU April 2018 Background The Euro-Summit on 15 December 2017 has created a renewed momentum for discussions on deepening the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) during
More informationLithuania within the Economic Governance cycle of the EU
European Institute of Public Administration - Institut européen d administration publique Lithuania within the Economic Governance cycle of the EU Faculty of Economics University of Vilnius, 16 October
More informationEconomic governace and coordination of economic policies
Economic governace and coordination of economic policies Reform of economic governance! European Semester 1 st edition in 2011 EU27! Integrated surveillance! Six-Pack in force since December 2011 EU27
More informationTHE ROLE OF THE STATE IN ECONOMIC GROWTH PARIS. Idiosyncratic shocks, economic governance of the euro-area and the role of member states
THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN ECONOMIC GROWTH PARIS Idiosyncratic shocks, economic governance of the euro-area and the role of member states A policy brief by Boris Vujčić, Croatian National Bank December 2014
More informationA Decade-Long Economic Crisis: Cyprus vs. Greece
A Decade-Long Economic Crisis: Cyprus vs. Greece Gikas Hardouvelis Professor of Finance & Economics University of Piraeus LSE SU Hellenic and Cypriot Societies Forum London, March 18, 17 TABLE OF CONTENTS
More informationVítor Constâncio ECB Vice-President. Fragmentation and Rebalancing in the euro area
Vítor Constâncio ECB Vice-President Fragmentation and Rebalancing in the euro area Joint EC-ECB Conference on Financial Integration Brussels, 25 April 2013 Introduction Rubric In the first half of 2012,
More informationThe New Global Economic Order Multilateral Institutions and the New Regionalism
The New Global Economic Order Multilateral Institutions and the New Regionalism India Global Forum, New Delhi, 9 November 2014 Klaus Regling, Managing Director, European Stability Mechanism Over the past
More informationSpanish position on the Future of Europe February Introduction
Spanish position on the Future of Europe February 2017 Introduction Six decades after the signature of the Treaty of Rome, the European Union (EU) has proved to be the most effective solution ever devised
More information1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments The overall macroeconomic environment remains very challenging for the European insurance and pension sector. The yields have been further compressed and are substantially below the
More informationThe OECD Global Economic Outlook
The OECD Global Economic Outlook Nigel Pain OECD Economics Department Edinburgh, 11 July 2013 NCSL Symposium for Legislative Leaders 1 Overview Presentation structure Current situation and prospects. Global
More informationFiscal frameworks in Europe: Striking the right balance between centralisation and decentralisation
Fiscal frameworks in Europe: Striking the right balance between centralisation and decentralisation Marco BUTI Director-General European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs Bruegel, Danmarks
More informationThe Economic and Monetary Union and the European Union s Competence Issues
Working Paper Series L-2016-01 The Economic and Monetary Union and the European Union s Competence Issues Yumiko Nakanishi (Hitotsubashi University) 2016 Yumiko Nakanishi. All rights reserved. Short sections
More informationThe role of ECB in relation to the modified EFSF and the future ESM. Prof. Dr. iur. Dr. rer. pol. Peter Sester
The role of ECB in relation to the modified EFSF and the future ESM Prof. Dr. iur. Dr. rer. pol. Peter Sester A monetary union with a stable euro can only survive if central bank independence is fully
More informationIn 2010, Europe faced a choice
Europe 2020 Ruth Paserman DG Enterprise and Industry Head of Unit Europe 2020 and National Competitiveness Policies Alpeuregio summer school 2014 2 July 2014 In 2010, Europe faced a choice 2010-2020: a
More informationErkki Liikanen: Reforming the structure of the EU banking sector
Erkki Liikanen: Reforming the structure of the EU banking sector Speech by Mr Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland and Chairman of the Highlevel Expert Group on reforming the structure of the
More informationThe Instruments providing Macro-Financial Support to EU Member States
No 2017/06, March 2017 The Instruments providing Macro-Financial Support to EU Member States Cinzia Alcidi, Daniel Gros, Jorge Núñez Ferrer and David Rinaldi Abstract Following the financial crisis, the
More informationEighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference
Eighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference Geneva, 14-16 November 2011 Debt Resolution Mechanisms: Should there be a Statutory Mechanism for Resolving Debt Crises? by Mr. Frank Moss Director General, International
More informationCOMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL. A Roadmap towards a Banking Union
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 12.9.2012 COM(2012) 510 final COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL A Roadmap towards a Banking Union EN EN COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION
More informationIssues Paper on Completing the Economic and Monetary Union
Issues Paper on Completing the Economic and Monetary Union by European Council September 12, 2012 ISSUES PAPER ON COMPLETING THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION Introduction The European Council of 29 June
More informationThe Europe 2020 Strategy. La place des indicateurs d'emploi et sociaux dans la gouvernance économique européenne
The Europe 2020 Strategy La place des indicateurs d'emploi et sociaux dans la gouvernance économique européenne 1.) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation 2.) Sustainable
More informationDeepening Europe s Economic and Monetary Union. Commission Note ahead of the European Council and the Euro Summit of June 2018
Commission Note ahead of the Council and the Euro Summit of 28-29 June 2018 Deepening Europe s Economic and Monetary Union 2 Contribution from the Commission I want to continue with the reform of our Economic
More informationIMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON STATISTICS
IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON STATISTICS Agnes Naarits The global financial crisis of recent years has rattled even the strongest economies and the whole world is closely watching the decisions
More informationImpact of the Great Recession and the Role of Assistance Programmes in EMU Countries
UNIVERSIDADE DE TRÁS-OS-MONTES E ALTO DOURO Impact of the Great Recession and the Role of Assistance Programmes in EMU Countries Leonida Correia and Patrícia Martins Centre for Transdisciplinary Development
More informationCOUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Brussels, 25 November /11 Interinstitutional File: 2011/0385 (COD) ECOFIN 805 UEM 335 CODEC 2112
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 25 November 2011 17230/11 Interinstitutional File: 2011/0385 (COD) ECOFIN 805 UEM 335 CODEC 2112 PROPOSAL from: European Commission dated: 25 November 2011 No Cion
More informationOfficial Journal of the European Union L 140/11
27.5.2013 Official Journal of the European Union L 140/11 REGULATION (EU) No 473/2013 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 21 May 2013 on common provisions for monitoring and assessing draft
More informationTen years after the crisis: lessons learnt and forward risks for the Belgian economy and the financial sector
Ten years after the crisis: lessons learnt and forward risks for the Belgian economy and the financial sector Jean Hilgers Directeur Authors: De Prest, E. Deroose, M. Dresse, L. Schepens, Th. DS.18.9.374
More informationChallenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response. Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank
Challenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank Institut d études politiques, Paris 2 September 212 1 Prime conduit of monetary
More informationCheck against delivery.
Bullet Points for intervention delivered at the OECD-IMF Conference on structural reforms by Jürgen Stark Member of the Executive Board and the Governing Council of the European Central Bank 17 March 2008
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Twenty-Eighth Meeting October 12, 2013 Statement by Olli Rehn, Vice-President, European Commission On behalf of the European Commission Statement by Vice-President
More informationTOWARDS A MORE INTEGRATED AND STABLE EUROPE? National Bank of Poland
TOWARDS A MORE INTEGRATED AND STABLE EUROPE? National Bank of Poland by Daniel Gros Warsaw; October 2011 Key points 1. Background: global credit boom and excess leverage. 2. EMU system not designed to
More information74 ECB THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE
Box 7 THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE This year s European Semester (i.e. the framework for EU policy coordination introduced in 2011) includes, for the first time, the implementation of the
More informationFinancial Assistance in the Euro Area: An Early Evaluation
Financial Assistance in the Euro Area: An Early Evaluation Presentation at Peterson Institute Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Guntram B. Wolff April 2013 This study Two innovations in major financial assistance
More informationJosef Bonnici: The changing nature of economic and financial governance following the euro area crisis
Josef Bonnici: The changing nature of economic and financial governance following the euro area crisis Introductory remarks by Professor Josef Bonnici, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the Malta
More informationCOMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION. A blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union Launching a European Debate
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 28.11.2012 COM(2012) 777 final COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION A blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union Launching a European Debate EN EN A BLUEPRINT
More informationSummary of the June 2010 Financial Stability RevieW
Summary of the June 21 Financial Stability RevieW The primary objective of the s Financial Stability Review (FSR) is to identify the main sources of risk to the stability of the euro area financial system
More informationThe euro area economy: an update Eurochallenge November 2013
The euro area economy: an update Eurochallenge November 2013 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover Update on the economic situation
More informationCapital Flows in the Euro Area: Some lessons from the last boom-bust cycle. Angel Gavilan, Martin Hillebrand December 2017
Capital Flows in the Euro Area: Some lessons from the last boom-bust cycle Angel Gavilan, Martin Hillebrand December 217 The last boom in capital flows was largely a global phenomenon Sum of current account
More informationThe Coordination of Fiscal Policies in Europe
Gian Paolo Ruggiero Ministry of the Economy and Finance Department of the Treasury The Coordination of Fiscal Policies in Europe Warsaw 21 November 2003 04/12/2003 1 1. A European monetary policy and 12
More informationThe Euro Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis: Testing the Limits of Solidarity. Presentation to the IA BE
IA BE The Euro Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis: Testing the Limits of Solidarity Presentation to the IA BE Jean Deboutte 14 June 2011 Table of Contents Section 1 Introduction Section 2 Diagnosis Section 3 Remedies
More informationECB opinion on a draft Decision amending Article 136 of the TFEU with regard to the ESM (17 March 2011)
ECB opinion on a draft Decision amending Article 136 of the TFEU with regard to the ESM (17 March 2011) Caption: On 17 March 2011, following a request from the European Council, the European Central Bank
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More information1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public
More informationThe crisis response in the euro area. Peter Praet Pioneer Investment s Colloquia Series Beijing, 17 April 2013
The crisis response in the euro area Peter Praet Pioneer Investment s Colloquia Series Beijing, 17 April 213 Outline A. How the crisis developed B. Monetary policy response C. Structural adjustment underway
More information2016 Country Specific Recommendations for the Euro Area
IPOL EGOV DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE SUPPORT UNIT B R IE F IN G 2016 Country Specific Recommendations for the Euro Area A comparison of Commission and Council texts "comply
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Twenty-Ninth Meeting April 12, 2014 Statement by Siim Kallas, Vice-President of the European Commission On behalf of the European Commission Statement of
More informationThe Eurozone Crisis and the Limits of Economic Integration
The Eurozone Crisis and the Limits of Economic Integration Dr Alicia Hinarejos Structure Background: 1. The euro crisis 2. The Economic and Monetary Union A spectrum of further fiscal integration The measures
More informationOverview of the European financial assistance programmes (as of: 31 January 2016)
Overview of the European financial assistance programmes (as of: 31 January 2016) Overview of the most important figures on European financial assistance under the European Financial Stability Facility
More informationTHE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS
I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D THE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS Jeffrey Franks Director, IMF Europe Office International Monetary Fund February 2, 2017 1 MONETARY UNION HAS IMPORTANT ACHIEVEMENTS
More informationFrench German roadmap for the Euro Area
French German roadmap for the Euro Area To ensure a strong economy, the European Union needs a strong currency union. This currency is the Euro, which is open to all Member States and which nearly all
More information1. THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 16 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 16 1. THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 1.1. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT According to the most recent IMF estimates, world economic activity grew by 3.1%
More informationThe euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective
The euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist, Member of the Management Board 3 rd Annual BBVA European Debt Conference New York, 4 October 217 The euro area:
More informationII. Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account deficits
II. Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account deficits Macroeconomic imbalances, including housing and credit bubbles, contributed to significant current account deficits in
More informationPortugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012
Q1 2012 Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation
More informationRecent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy
Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy Carlos Name da Job Silva Costa Governor 13 January 214 Seminar National Seminar Bank name of Poland 19 June 215 Outline 1. Growing imbalances
More informationConclusion of EFSF financial assistance programme for Portugal: an overview. 18 May 2014
Conclusion of EFSF financial assistance programme for Portugal: an overview 18 May 2014 Portugal s clean exit results from adequate crisis response Three years of sound policies and international support
More information46 ECB FISCAL CHALLENGES FROM POPULATION AGEING: NEW EVIDENCE FOR THE EURO AREA
Box 4 FISCAL CHALLENGES FROM POPULATION AGEING: NEW EVIDENCE FOR THE EURO AREA Ensuring the long-term sustainability of public finances in the euro area and its member countries is a prerequisite for the
More informationEurope in crisis. George Gelauff. ECU 92 Lustrum Conference Utrecht. 23 February 2012
Europe in crisis George Gelauff ECU 92 Lustrum Conference Utrecht Menu Costs and benefits of Europe Banks and governments Monetary Union and debts Germany Conclusion 2 Europe in crisis Europe largest export
More informationThe Turbulent EMS in the 1990s: What Lessons for Today? Professor of Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles Senior Fellow, Bruegel
The Turbulent in the 1990s: What Lessons for Today? André Sapir Professor of Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles Senior Fellow, Bruegel 2 The turbulent 1990s: the incompatible trio July 1990: Full
More informationUma Ramakrishnan. Regional mechanisms and international financial architecture November 16, 2010 New York
Uma Ramakrishnan Regional mechanisms and international financial architecture November 16, 2010 New York Why do we need a Global Financial Safety Net? Capital flows volatility Financial interconnectedness
More informationMember of
Making Europe Safer Prof. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Member of www.euro-nomics.com New York University Stern School of Business National Bank of Belgium, December 22, 2011 Agenda Diagnosis of design issues
More informationLetter to President van Rompuy
Letter to President van Rompuy The Euro is the basis of our economic success and symbol for the political unification of our continent. It stands for the will of Europe to consolidate its internal development
More informationConclusions of the Brussels European Council (16 and 17 December 2010)
Conclusions of the Brussels European Council (16 and 17 December 2010) Caption: Meeting in Brussels on 16 and 17 December 2010, the Heads of State or Government agree that the Treaty on the Functioning
More informationThe EU is running out of choices to tame the crisis
PABLO DE OLAVIDE UNIVERSITY, Sevilla, SPAIN Conference: «Addressing the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Euro Area» Wednesday, 18 May 2011 The EU is running out of choices to tame the crisis Panayotis GLAVINIS
More informationCompleting EMU: Arguments and proposals for the next term of office of the European Parliament and the European Commission
Completing EMU: Arguments and proposals for the next term of office of the European Parliament and the European Commission Public Hearing, European Economic and Social Committee, 5 December 2013 Taneli
More information