The UK economy in 2012 and beyond
|
|
- Marcus Chapman
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The UK economy in 2012 and beyond Dr Andrew Sentance Senior Economic Adviser, NHF Leaders Forum London, 20 th February 2012
2 Key issues Why has growth been disappointing and uneven? What is the new normal for the economy? Prospects for UK in 2012 and beyond Challenges and opportunities for social housing NHF Leaders Forum Slide 2
3 UK economic growth has disappointed % per annum change in non-oil GDP Previous data Latest data* Trend Note: Average non-oil GDP growth since 2009H1 = 1.7% Source: ONS NHF Leaders Forum Slide 3
4 ...while inflation has been high and volatile % per annum increase in consumer prices index 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Office for National Statistics Inflation Target Ave Slide 4
5 World economic growth below trend % per annum change in GDP in G-13 economies* * EU, US and 11 other economies accounting for 85% of world GDP Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Updates NHF Leaders Forum IMF, June 2011 IMF, Jan 2012 Ave Slide 5
6 ... though a slow start to recovery is not unusual average % per annum change in GDP UK - 80s recovery UK - 90s recovery Advanced economies - 80s Advanced economies - 90s First 3 years 1985/95 onwards* * and average growth rates Source: ONS and IMF. UK figures show non-oil GDP growth NHF Leaders Forum Slide 6
7 Emerging market growth has been strong average % per annum change in GDP over first three years of recovery UK (exc oil&gas) Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies Source: ONS and IMF and 2012 based on latest IMF, OECD and forecasts NHF Leaders Forum Slide 7
8 ... reflecting the rise of Asia Percentage share of world GDP, current market prices & exchange rates 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% US EU-27 Asia-pacific G10* * Includes Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan Province of China and Thailand. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook NHF Leaders Forum Slide 8
9 What is the new normal? UK economic growth in a long-term context Why the old normal won t return Parallels with the 1970s and early 1980s Forces shaping the new normal NHF Leaders Forum Slide 9
10 Long expansions and their aftermath average % per annum change in UK GDP and consumer spending 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% * GDP Consumer spending * Based on current consensus forecasts for 2011/12, and assuming trend (2.1%) growth from 2013 Source: ONS and calculations What is the new normal? Slide 10
11 Forces shaping long expansions Technology and innovation Policy environment Sustained economic growth Private sector expectations Financial regime What is the new normal? Slide 11
12 Forces underpinning the old normal, Financial deregulation and liberalisation, broadening access to debt for consumers and businesses New era of globalisation, as China, India, former Soviet bloc and others embrace the market economy Relatively low energy and commodity prices ( ), reinforced by China effect on manufactured prices US the dominant economic power, while European countries pursue closer economic integration Confidence in ability of policy-makers to support growth and of independent central banks to control inflation Rapid innovation and technological advance in IT and communications What is the new normal? Slide 12
13 The 1970s experience a salutary lesson 25-year long expansion came to an end in the early 1970s The international financial system was seriously disrupted with the end of the Bretton Woods system Energy and commodity prices were high and volatile UK growth averaged less than 1% pa (a lost decade?), inflation was high and economic/financial conditions were volatile Other western economies saw a growth slowdown over this period, with rising unemployment and high inflation 50s/60s full employment policy consensus undermined; lack of confidence and policy errors compounded volatility What is the new normal? Slide 13
14 Forces shaping the new normal The rise of Asia and other emerging market economies, and associated pressure on supplies of energy and other natural resources The legacy of the financial crisis Structural adjustment in western economies following the long expansion which ended in 2007 Breakdown of pre-2007 policy paradigm and lack of confidence in policy responses What is the new normal? Slide 14
15 Two phases of the new normal Phase 1: Continuation (through mid-2010s) of current pattern of disappointing growth in western economies, accompanied by financial volatility and high and fluctuating energy and commodity prices Phase 2: A clearer and more sustained growth dynamic emerges, perhaps starting in the second half of this decade. However, this will be based on a different set of technological, regulatory, geopolitical and financial drivers from the forces driving the long expansion which ended in 2007 Businesses and policy-makers need strategies to manage and survive through Phase 1, while building potential opportunities for Phase 2. What is the new normal? Slide 15
16 UK prospects in 2012 and beyond The global economic environment UK growth and consumer spending Public finances Inflation and interest rate outlook NHF Leaders Forum Slide 16
17 New normal economic climate: Phase 1 Prolonged period of disappointing GDP and consumer spending growth in western economies, lasting into mid-2010s Asia and some other emerging markets continue to perform strongly and are main engine of global growth Periodic bursts of inflation, driven by energy and commodity price movements, adding to growth volatility High prices for energy and other natural resources Policy-makers struggle to address medium term policy challenges Continuing financial market volatility What is the new normal? Slide 17
18 Two-speed global economy to continue % per annum change in GDP Advanced economies Emerging and developing Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2012 update Slide 18
19 How concerned are you about the following potential economic and policy threats to your business growth prospects? Not concerned at all Not very concerned 15 th Annual CEO Survey (Sept-Dec 2011) Somewhat concerned Extremely concerned Pulse Survey (January 2012) Inflation Inflation Protectionist tendencies of national governments Protectionist tendencies of national governments Uncertain or volatile economic growth Uncertain or volatile economic growth Over-regulation Over-regulation Lack of stability in capital markets Lack of stability in capital markets Exchange rate volatility Exchange rate volatility Government response to fiscal deficit and debt burden Government response to fiscal deficit and debt burden Bribery and corruption Bribery and corruption % Eurozone outcomes Source: Global CEO Survey/Pulse Survey: Base: All respondents (1,258; 444) % Slide 19
20 Consumers face a prolonged squeeze % per annum change in GDP and consumer spending ave GDP Consumer spending Source: ONS and latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts Slide 20
21 Reducing the deficit a long haul Public sector net borrowing, as % of GDP /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Mar-11 Nov-11 Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, November 2011 Slide 21
22 Services sector may hold back inflation decline % per annum increase in consumer prices index 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Source: Office for National Statistics Goods Services Slide 22
23 Key issues Why has growth been disappointing and uneven? What is the new normal for the economy? Prospects for UK in 2012 and beyond Challenges and opportunities for social housing NHF Leaders Forum Slide 23
24 Adjusting to the new normal New Normal Economic Climate Policy and regulatory environment Sector-specific market and structural changes Strategy & planning What is the new normal? Slide 24
25 Business challenges and opportunities Finding growth opportunities in a low-growth environment Adapting to changing regulatory/policy frameworks Adjusting to structural changes driven by changing financial and consumer climate and emerging new technologies Managing in a world of high/volatile energy and commodity prices Accessing sources of finance in volatile and risk-averse financial markets Attracting and retaining a loyal and productive workforce, and managing employee expectations NHF Leaders Forum Slide 25
26 Challenges and opportunities for social housing No return to the pre-2008 world for public finances or financial markets Constrained funding and financing environment to remain Upward pressure on demand from difficult social and economic environment Problems for young people and new households accessing the private sector housing market likely to continue Potential to play a larger role in the housing market if new financial structures and models can be developed NHF Leaders Forum Slide 26
27 Thank you for listening. Any questions? This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a limited liability partnership in the United Kingdom) which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity. Design: ML NB
Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth
More informationUK Economic Outlook July 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects UK housing market outlook Nowcasting current GDP growth PwC 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly stronger
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More information4 Does trade hold the key to the UK services productivity puzzle? 1
4 Does trade hold the key to the UK services productivity puzzle? 1 Introduction and summary The UK economy is a highly servicesoriented economy. Services make up over three-quarters of GDP and over 80%
More informationPwC APEC CEO Survey press conference
www.pwc.com APEC CEO Survey press conference Lima, Peru 17th November 2016 Outlook for business growth About the Survey The voice of 1,154 business leaders. Every APEC economy is represented The 21 APEC
More informationPOST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, Barry Bosworth
POST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, 2010 Barry Bosworth I. Economic Rise of Asia Emerging economies of Asia have performed extremely
More information2017 APEC CEO Survey Key Findings
A world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey 2017 APEC CEO Survey Key Findings www.pwc.com/apec Key themes Making of the workforce of the future An operating model for a fluid trade policy environment
More informationWTO lowers forecast after sub-par trade growth in first half of 2014
PRESS RELEASE PRESS/722 26 September 214 (-) WTO lowers forecast after sub-par trade growth in first half of 214 TRADE STATISTICS WTO economists have reduced their forecast for world trade growth in 214
More informationKeeping pace with accelerating change Banking and Capital markets industry summary
www.pwc.com/ceosurvey Keeping pace with accelerating change Banking and Capital markets industry summary Key industry findings from the 14th Annual Global CEO Survey Banking and Capital Markets The global
More informationHighlights and key messages for business and public policy
Highlights and key messages for business and public policy Key projections 2018 2019 Real GDP growth 1.5% 1.6% Consumer spending growth 1.1% 1.3% Inflation (CPI) 2.7% 2.3% Source: PwC main scenario projections
More informationThe Long View How will the global economic order change by 2050?
www.pwc.com The World in 2050 Summary report The Long View How will the global economic order change by 2050? February 2017 Emerging markets will dominate the world s top 10 economies in 2050 (GDP at PPPs)
More informationBrexit - Economic Impact for Switzerland
Brexit - Economic Impact for Switzerland 4 July 2016 Few things are certain in the wake of the referendum held on Thursday 23 June. True, Brexit won with a majority, but exit has not yet been formally
More informationA world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November APEC CEO Survey. Australia s findings.
A world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November 2017 2017 APEC CEO Survey Australia s findings www.pwc.com/apec Key themes Making of the workforce of the future An operating model for a fluid
More informationA world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November APEC CEO Survey. The Philippines findings.
A world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November 2017 2017 APEC CEO Survey The Philippines findings www.pwc.com/apec Key themes Making of the workforce of the future An operating model for a
More informationGlobal/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June
Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial
More informationPensions Support Index
www.pwc.co.uk Pensions Support Index What is the new normal for pension funds? PwC s FTSE 350 Pensions Support Index November 2012 2 Pension Support Index Pension Support Index 3 Contents Executive summary
More informationAdvanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery
Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan
More informationTable 3: The Growth of Macro Economy in Asian Countries in 2005 and the estimation of 2006
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Asia remain to be the center of the world economic growth, particularly Southeast Asia and East Asia, which held 7.5% growth in 2005, compared to the economic growth in developed
More informationChief Executive Perspectives: 2009
Chief Executive Perspectives: 2009 Results from the 2009 Annual Member Survey Asia Business Council September 2009 The Asia Business Council Independent association of CEOs from leading Asian and MNC firms
More informationContents. Global outlook. UK economic prospects. What might be the impact of lower EU migration to UK after Brexit?
Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic prospects What might be the impact of lower EU migration to UK after Brexit? Twin puzzles UK productivity and export growth since the crisis UK Economic Outlook
More informationA world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November APEC CEO Survey. The United States findings.
A world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November 2017 2017 APEC CEO Survey The United States findings www.pwc.com/apec Key themes Making of the workforce of the future An operating model for
More informationPART 1. recent trends and developments
PART 1 recent trends and developments 1 REGIONAL OVERVIEW OF MERCHANDISE TRADE A. A RETURN TO TRADE CONTRACTION The sluggish growth in developed economies and uncertainty linked to the European economic
More informationFY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged -
REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Oct-Dec Qtr of 2017 FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged - March 8, 2018 Copyright
More informationHow Serious of a Threat Is Global Deflation?
How Serious of a Threat Is Global Deflation? Nariman Behravesh Farid Abolfathi John Mothersole Dan Ryan Todd Lee Howard Archer Global Insight Teleconference December 17, 22 199s: A Deflationary Wave The
More informationA world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November APEC CEO Survey. Malaysia s findings.
A world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November 2017 2017 APEC CEO Survey Malaysia s findings www.pwc.com/apec Key themes Making of the workforce of the future An operating model for a fluid
More informationPower. Schroder Asian Income. your way to higher yields. p.a.
Schroder Asian Income POTENTIAL PAYOUTS 6% PAID MONT HLY* p.a. Power your way to higher yields * It is Schroder Investment Management (Singapore) Ltd s (the Manager s ) current intention to declare distributions
More informationGlobal Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute
Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute PECC 18 th General Meeting Economic Crisis and Recovery: Roles for the Asia-Pacific Economies Washington,
More informationFY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -
REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationEdmonton Real Estate Forum. Ron Gilbertson President and CEO Edmonton Economic Development Corporation
Edmonton Real Estate Forum Ron Gilbertson President and CEO Edmonton Economic Development Corporation The Latest Economic News Depression Economic Downturn The Economy What s Going On? Edmonton and Alberta
More information10 th Annual Global CEO Survey Willem Bröcker Porto, 18 de Abril 2007
10 th Annual Global CEO Survey Willem Bröcker Porto, 18 de Abril 2007 *connectedthinking PwC 10 th Annual Global CEO Survey Position for graphic or image Business Confidence CEOs are generally confident
More informationGlobal MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?
Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the
More informationHighlights and key messages for business and public policy
Highlights and key messages for business and public policy Key projections 2017 2018 Real GDP growth 1.5% 1.4% Consumer spending growth 1.6% 1.1% Inflation (CPI) 2.7% 2.7% Source: PwC main scenario projections
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationUK Economic Outlook March 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects Consumer spending prospects after Brexit Will robots steal our jobs? 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly
More informationInvestment Management Association of Singapore. Annual Conference 2015
www.pwc.com/assetmanagement Investment Management Association of Singapore Annual Conference 2015 26 March 2015 Panel Discussion: The Rise of Regional Passporting Schemes in Asia Your Panel Today Panel
More informationCEOs Less Optimistic about Global Economy for 2015
Press Release Date 22 January 2014 Contact Vu Thi Thu Nguyet Tel: (04) 3946 2246, Ext. 4690; Mobile: 0947 093 998 E-mail: vu.thi.thu.nguyet@vn.pwc.com Pages 6 CEOs Less Optimistic about Global Economy
More informationPURSUING SHARED PROSPERITY IN AN ERA OF TURBULENCE AND HIGH COMMODITY PRICES
2012 Key messages Asia-Pacific growth to slow in 2012 amidst global turbulence: Spillovers of the euro zone turmoil Global oil price hikes Excess liquidity and volatile capital flows Key long-term challenge:
More informationCEOs confidence rises for 2014
News release Date 21 January, 2014 Contact Jonathan Hicks, PwC Tel: 1-441-299-7182/1-441-505-6050 e-mail: jonathan.p.hicks@bm.pwc.com Pages 5 Marina Mello, PwC Tel: 1-441-299-7184/1-441-505-3127 e-mail:
More informationMulti-Asset Outlook 2017: More Growth, More Inflation, More Politics
Multi-Asset Outlook 2017: More Growth, More Inflation, More Politics January 11, 2017 by Paul O Connor of Henderson Global Investors Paul O Connor, Head of Multi-Asset, reviews 2016 s lessons, and details
More informationThe Bursting of the Asian Housing Bubble*
The Bursting of the Asian Housing Bubble* C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh Everyone knows the role played by housing bubbles in the pre-crisis booms that ended in spectacular crashes in the United States
More informationASIA EX JAPAN: NEITHER BOOM NOR DOOM
2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing ASIA EX JAPAN: NEITHER BOOM NOR DOOM Anh Lu Portfolio Manager (Asia ex Japan Equity Strategy) The Good news, the Bad News, Our Outlook The Good News Not a crisis
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationNeoliberalism, Investment and Growth in Latin America
Neoliberalism, Investment and Growth in Latin America Jayati Ghosh and C.P. Chandrasekhar Despite the relatively poor growth record of the era of corporate globalisation, there are many who continue to
More informationComparison Of GST Rates And Revenue From GST In Selected Asian Countries. Initial Standard Rate (%)
The Impact Of GST It took 1 years from when the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was first mooted in Malaysia to its implementation on April 1,1. The move was announced at Budget 1 to replace the existing
More informationGreece. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Delay in agreeing reform agenda has undermined the recovery Published in collaboration with Highlights The immediate economic outlook for continues
More informationThe Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationAsian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016
Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.
More informationPRESENTATION ON Fiscal Policy for Development and Budgetary Implications: Experience in Other Parts of Asia
PRESENTATION ON Fiscal Policy for Development and Budgetary Implications: Experience in Other Parts of Asia By Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan Principal NUST Business School National University of Sciences & Technology,
More information2017 Investor Pulse. Switzerland MKTG0817E
2017 Investor Pulse Switzerland What s on the mind of Switzerland s wealthy investors? Welcome to the latest edition of Investor Pulse, the world s most extensive survey of behaviour among investors. In
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationBTMU ASEAN TOPICS. YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE 23 JANUARY 2018
BTMU ASEAN TOPICS YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp 23 JANUARY 218 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON 28 DECEMBER 217) The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.
More informationNew Zealand s Economic & Fiscal Outlook, Treasury s Long-Term Fiscal Statement, and Treasury s Living Standards Framework October 2013.
New Zealand s Economic & Fiscal Outlook, Treasury s Long-Term Fiscal Statement, and Treasury s Living Standards Framework October 2013 Short-Term (next five years) Economic and Fiscal Outlook Five Key
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Outlook for Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles Published in collaboration with Highlights GDP growth With the Finnish economy still struggling to
More informationAsian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms
Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms One of the commonalities between most Asian governments is the dedicated commitment they have in using policies and initiatives
More informationImproved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year
ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by
More informationFinding growth in an uncertain world. The growth outlook from PwC s 21st CEO Survey
Finding growth in an uncertain world The growth outlook from PwC s 21st CEO Survey pwc.co.nz/ceosurvey2018 2 PwC s 21st CEO Survey Executive summary It s been an eventful start to 2018. Many of us are
More information26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Liang Shibin
Analyst Liang Shibin +6565311516 liangsb@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary Outperformance during Recovery Phase Small caps tend to outperform during economic recovery, attributed to the factor of nimbleness
More information29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Roger Bootle Wednesday 8 November
29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Roger Bootle Wednesday 8 November 1. Agenda The global recovery and future risks. The US and Trump. Economic recovery and political risk
More informationBNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook
7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,
More informationWorld Steel Industry Development and Market Prospects 13 th International Market and Trade Conference
World Steel Industry Development and Market Prospects 13 th International Market and Trade Conference Global Steel Industry in the post-crisis Period Global economic recovery continues to disappoint The
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationUnprecedented Change. Investment opportunities in an ageing world JUNE 2010 FOR PROFESSIONAL ADVISERS ONLY
Unprecedented Change Investment opportunities in an ageing world Baring Asset Management Limited 155 Bishopsgate London EC2M 2XY Tel: +44 (0)20 7628 6000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7638 7928 www.barings.com JUNE 2010
More informationBusiness Outlook for ASEAN Country 2017 Thailand Insurance Symposium December 2016 Bangkok, Thailand. Clarence Wong Chief Economist Asia
Business Outlook for ASEAN Country 2017 Thailand Insurance Symposium 2016 19 December 2016 Bangkok, Thailand Clarence Wong Chief Economist Asia Agenda What are our top economic concerns? What does this
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationTHE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL TURMOIL ON THE WORLD COTTON AND TEXTILE MARKET
THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL TURMOIL ON THE WORLD COTTON AND TEXTILE MARKET Presented by Paul Morris Chairman of the Standing Committee INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE 1999 China International Cotton
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationMalaysia Economic Monitor The Quest for Productivity Growth
Malaysia Economic Monitor The Quest for Productivity Growth 1 Contents RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK External environment Domestic economic developments Outlook THE QUEST FOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More information2013 China Development Forum survey report. Choosing China: Insights from multinationals on the investment environment
2013 China Development Forum survey report Choosing China: Insights from multinationals on the investment environment Target growth markets Which three of these key markets would you invest in? Source:
More informationThe effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues. By Julian Jessop
The effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues By Julian Jessop 1. Plan of My Talk The outlook for advanced economies. Impact on developing countries. Some losers and
More informationThe Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.
Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19th Floor Edinburgh Tower 15 Queen s Road Central Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2841 1411 Fax: (852) 2868 411 The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Investment Outlook & Strategy www.asiapacificfund.com
More information2015 AUSTRALIAN INVESTMENT MANAGERS CROSS-BORDER FLOWS REPORT. Financial Services Council and Perpetual
2015 AUSTRALIAN INVESTMENT MANAGERS CROSS-BORDER FLOWS REPORT Financial Services Council and Perpetual 2015 AUSTRALIAN INVESTMENT MANAGERS CROSS-BORDER FLOWS REPORT INTRODUCTIONS FROM THE FINANCIAL SERVICES
More informationFinancial wealth of private households worldwide
Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate
More informationAsia Business Council Annual Survey 2011
Asia Business Council Annual Survey 2011 Executive Summary September 2011 Survey Overview Survey was conducted in July-August 2011 Response rate of 76% (49 of 64 members) Members were asked about their
More information3. CONTAINER TRADE GROWTH
3. CONTAINER TRADE GROWTH 3.1 Economic assumptions Growth in container trade is ultimately driven by economic growth. An underlying assumption of this study is that, for the next decade at least, the structural
More informationThe Asian Face of the Global Recession
The Asian Face of the Global Recession C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh Delegates to the World Economic Forum at Davos this year came despondent and left in despair. Both the discussions and the new evidence
More informationAAPA Shifting Trade Patterns The Changing Asia Market
AAPA Shifting Trade Patterns The Changing Asia Market Today s objective Provide a 30,000 perspective on the Asian economy and its short-term outlook Focus on three topics 1. Economic growth 2. Trade growth
More informationEurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain
More informationANZ Submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade White Paper Public Consultation
ANZ Submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade White Paper Public Consultation February 2017 A. INTRODUCTION 1. ANZ welcomes the opportunity to contribute to the Department of Foreign Affairs
More information2014 AUSTRALIAN INVESTMENT MANAGERS CROSS-BORDER FLOWS REPORT. Financial Services Council and Perpetual
2014 AUSTRALIAN INVESTMENT MANAGERS CROSS-BORDER FLOWS REPORT Financial Services Council and Perpetual The Australian Investment Managers Cross-Border Flows Report was first commissioned in 2012 to determine
More information2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook:
217 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Preparing for Choppy Seas Ranil Salgado International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department May 12, 217 OAP Seminar Key messages and roadmap The near-term
More informationYen and Yuan. The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Asian Economies. C. H. Kwan RIETI
Yen and Yuan The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Asian Economies C. H. Kwan RIETI November 21 The Yen-dollar Rate as the Major Determinant of Asian Economic Growth -4-3 -2 Stronger Yen Yen
More informationHow the emerging markets slowdown will impact listed Spanish companies
How the emerging markets slowdown will impact listed Spanish companies Nereida González, Pablo Guijarro and Diego Mendoza 1 Despite the favourable impact of recent international expansion by Spanish companies,
More informationInvestment Theme 3Q18. Ageing Population. Source: AFP Photo
Investment Theme 3Q18 Ageing Population Source: AFP Photo 91 Investment Theme III: Ageing Population Jason Low, CFA Strategist The global population is growing older and people are living longer. Demographics
More informationKeeping pace with accelerating change Banking and Capital Markets
www.pwc.com/ceosurvey Keeping pace with accelerating change Banking and Capital Markets Key industry findings from 14th Annual Global CEO Survey Banking and Capital Markets The global economy is still
More informationPower of Travel Promotion Evolution
Power of Travel Promotion Evolution Promotion More Important than Ever Power of Promotion $7 million Median state = marketing budget FY 2014-15 OR 45 seconds worth of Super Bowl ads $100 million = Presidential
More informationIndonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic
More informationThemes in bond investing
For professional investors only Not for public distribution Themes in bond investing June Asia 2011 2009 outlook Introduction Asian markets enjoyed a Goldilocks economic scenario in 2010 that helped them
More informationSada Reddy: Fiji s economy
Sada Reddy: Fiji s economy Presentation by Mr Sada Reddy, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji, to the FIJI NZ Business Council, Suva, 3 October 2008. * * * Outline The outline of my presentation
More informationSpanish economic outlook. June 2017
Spanish economic outlook June 2017 1 2 3 Spanish economy a pleasant surprise Growth drivers Forecasts once again bright One of the most dynamic economies in Europe Spain growing at a faster rate than EMU
More information2016 AUSTRALIAN INVESTMENT MANAGERS CROSS-BORDER FLOWS REPORT
2016 AUSTRALIAN INVESTMENT MANAGERS CROSS-BORDER FLOWS REPORT Financial Services Council and Perpetual CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 METHODOLOGY 4 KEY FINDINGS 5 RESULTS 6 CONCLUSIONS 13
More informationRecent developments in the Global and South African economies
Day Month Year Recent developments in the Global and South African economies Presented by: Nico Kelder Senior Economist Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa 2010 Growth, Development and Investment
More informationThe global economy in Grant Thornton International Business Report
Grant Thornton International Business Report 2014 in numbers Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International
More informationSustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth
1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack
More informationThe Asian growth story: how investors can participate
The Asian growth story: how investors can participate King Fuei Lee, Head of Asia Equities, Singapore January 2013 Even as the US struggles with its debt burdens and Europe battles its sovereign debt crisis,
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationCosa ci riserva il 2008?
Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents
More information