QUARTERLY CIO LETTER. A gold mine or a minefield? Summary. The scramble for liquidity intensifies. 18 July 2018
|
|
- Shanon Cannon
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 A gold mine or a minefield? Summary Strong U.S. growth is likely to cause spillover effect on the rest of the world, thus sustaining global economic expansion. But the range of possibilities for global economic outlook has widened. On the downside are trade war, protracted Brexit negotiations and overheating risks. On the upside are the Trump stimulus-inspired surprises. Rising U.S. interest rates, hawkish Fed policy and a strengthening U.S. dollar have tightened financial conditions, with spillover effect across markets including Ghana. This has intensified the scramble for liquidity in the local market. Slump in revenue generation could see Ghana introduce new tax measures in its mid-year budget review. In spite of this, Ghana s economic data remains encouraging with 1Q2018 real GDP growth of 6.8% compared with 6.7% in 1Q2017. What was exciting here was that growth in non-oil GDP (15.1% y/y) was stronger than oil GDP (6.1% y/y) despite the ramp up in oil production in the past nine months. However, Ghana s growth target is at risk as growth in private sector credit slows down. Bouts of volatility in 2Q2018 underpin the need for building greater resilience into portfolios. We recommend shortening duration in local currency fixed income, going up-in-quality across equities and credit, going long on currency hedged assets and increasing diversifications. The Investment team Isaac Adomako Boamah, CFA Chief Investment Officer Derrick Asare Mensah Portfolio Manager, Equities & Credit Obed Odenteh Portfolio Manager, Treasuries The tremors that battered financial markets in 2Q2018 have been nerve-wracking, especially given the pace with which bullish sentiments have quickly unwound into cautionary plays. Yields have picked up, the local currency has depreciated faster within this quarter than it has done in the last five combined and Ghanaian equities have surrendered more than half of the gains chalked in 1Q2018. In spite of this we share the view that strong U.S. growth is likely to cause a spillover effect on the rest of the world and thus sustain global economic expansion. However, the range of possibilities for global economic outlook has widened. On the downside are trade war, protracted Brexit negotiation and overheating risks. On the upside are the Trump stimulus-inspired surprises. On the local front a cocktail of elevated uncertainty and pickup in yields has intensified the scramble for liquidity. Thus, the need for building greater resilience into portfolios is much higher now than it was before. The scramble for liquidity intensifies Rising U.S. interest rates, hawkish Fed policy and a strengthening U.S. dollar have tightened financial conditions, with spillover effect across markets including Ghana. Tighter funding conditions in developed markets have played a role in the 2Q2018 pain local currency, and bonds have all shed off significant gains. 1
2 USD Billion GHS' Billions GHS QUARTERLY CIO LETTER Stock market performance in major SSA countries Domestic debt purchased/sold by foreign investors 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% NASI Index-Kenya GSE Index NSE Index Jan'18 Feb'18 Mar'18 Apr'18 May'18 Jun'18 Sold Av. USD/GHS Purchase Linear (Purchase) Source: Ghana Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, ICAMGH Research Eurobond yields for selected SSA markets 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Source: Central Securities Depository While all of this is unsettling for investors, we are unfazed by the turn of events as this was largely expected. In our previous letter, we indicated that markets were overheated and due for a correction. We also hinted at the potential shortfall in government revenue and the impact on government borrowing which could lead to a rerating at the short-end of the curve. Government revenue vs expenditure 3.0% 5.0 Ghana Kenya Nigeria 4.0 Source: Bloomberg 3.0 Further strengthening of the greenback could cause more pain to the local economy and derail the fiscal consolidation efforts of the current managers of the economy. Higher Fed rates mean renewed competition for capital and less need to hunt for yield when dollar based investors can get above-inflation returns in short-term risk-free instruments. This has led to rising risk premia across emerging markets (EM) assets as price correction sets in Q Q Q Q Total Revenue Total Expenditure International Reserves Trade Balance Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Ghana 2
3 Jan'17 Feb'17 Mar'17 Apr'17 May'17 Jun'17 Jul'17 Aug'17 Sept'17 Oct'17 Nov'17 Dec'17 Jan'18 Feb'18 Mar'18 Ar'18 QUARTERLY CIO LETTER It is also worth noting that regardless of the noise from the markets, the Ghanaian economy is still performing well and this is likely to continue for the next few quarters. Economic data remains encouraging with 1Q2018 real GDP growth of 6.8% compared with 6.7% in 1Q2017. What was exciting here was that growth in non-oil GDP (15.1% y/y) was stronger than oil GDP (6.1% y/y) despite the ramp up in oil production in the past nine months. Inflation in April also touched its lowest of 9.6% since the CPI was rebased in 2013 before inching up slightly to 10% in June However, this has been achieved on the back of reduced government spending and slow growth in private credit. Monetary sector indicators As at the end of 2Q2018 the yield curve had normalised from an inverted curve in 1Q2018 in spite of the pickup in yields across all tenors. What this means is that the value of all bonds held declined in 2Q2018 with holders of longer tenors worse off. This explains our decision to reduce the average maturity tenor in our portfolio to 3.5 years from 3.8 years. Given pickup in yields, government is likely to pay more at the short end of the curve than at the long end. This could result in an inverted yield curve by the end of 3Q2018. Ghana s yield curve evolution 18.3% 17.8% 17.3% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 16.8% 16.3% 15.8% 15.3% 2-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 2Q18 5.0% 0.0% Private sector credit Total liquidity Inflation Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Ghana Building greater resilience into our portfolios Bouts of volatility in 2Q2018 underpin the need for portfolio resilience. However, building a resilient portfolio in a plain vanilla market is a difficult task to accomplish due to shortage of asset classes. In spite of this challenge we still believe resilience can be built into our portfolios by shortening duration in local currency fixed income, going up-in-quality across equities and credit, going long on currency hedged assets and increasing diversification. In 2Q2018 we reduced our average maturity tenor for treasury securities to 3.5 years from 3.8 years even though our long-term strategy is to have a well laddered bond portfolio post 2020 elections to We held back on this strategy because we believe yields are likely to increase further on the back of tightening financial conditions in the U.S. and other developed markets. At this stage, the primary market is less attractive and thus we intend to avoid primary auctions as better opportunities exist in the secondary market. Source: Bank of Ghana The end of the bull run or an opportunity to buy the dip? While we anticipated a mid-cycle market correction given our view that Ghanaian equities were overvalued, the recent sell-off has been more material than earlier envisaged. In 2Q2018 alone, the Ghana Stock Exchange GSE) saw more than GHS 9bn (USD1.9bn) wiped off its market capitalisation as the index closed the quarter 18.8% worse off than it began. Although some analysts have attributed the recent selloff to investors decision to off-load existing positions in exchange for liquidity for the MTN Ghana IPO, we have a contrarian view. In our earlier letter, we indicated that bullish sentiments were being fuelled by local institutional investors. These locals, who appear to have been late in adjusting for the shift across the yield curve, were merely compensating for the decline in their fixed income positions by seeking alpha on the stock market. However, following the release of 1Q2018 company results, corporate earnings have lagged valuations prompting bearish sentiments. 3
4 In our opinion, there is no correlation between the sell-off and the IPO given that, the local investors causing the selloff are largely private pension funds. As at the time of going to print, these pension funds were yet to receive a waiver from the regulator allowing them to invest in IPOs. Key equity allocations We believe that the broad-based decline in prices has created an attractive entry point for value investors like ourselves. In effect, we see this as an opportunity to pursue our equity agenda which we had alluded to in our 3Q2017 CIO letter. We, therefore, intend to increase our overall allocation to equities to 10% of our assets under management by consolidating our positions in CAL Bank (CAL) and Ecobank Ghana (EGH) as well as three additional counters we have identified. Evolution of CAL & EGH multiples over the period Source: ICAMGH Research 2.2 At the time of going to print, the price of CAL was GHS 1.30 per share. In effect, the stock is trading at a price-to-book ratio (PB) of x compared with a PB of 1.5x at the close of April 2018 when it peaked. This implies that, CAL has become 33.3% cheaper even after adjusting for the bonus issue. Based on our valuation, we believe CAL has an upside in excess of 26.2% from the current price. Similarly, EGH s 24.2% drop on the market from when it peaked at GHS in the month of May means that, the stock has become 28.1% cheaper (i.e. PB down from 3.2x to 2.3x). Apart from valuations, we believe these two banks having already met the minimum capital requirement are insulated from the threat of equity dilution arising from an equity capital raising Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 CAL EGH 2.3 Through a transfer of GHS 250m from FY17 audited profits, an additional GHS 50m transfer in 1Q18 profits and the existing GHS 100m in stated capital, CAL has met the new minimum capital requirement of GHS 400m. Furthermore, we forecast CAL s net profit to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.2% over the next five years, driven by a stronger balance sheet to push loan growth and non-funded income which will be supported largely by off balance sheet transactions. Likewise, EGH through a recent bonus issue, transferred GHS 190m from its retained earnings to stated capital to meet the new minimum capital. In addition, we envisage bottom line to grow by a CAGR of 18.3% over the next five years. As mentioned earlier, we have identified three additional counters we intend to increase our allocation to, one of which is MTN Ghana, subject to regulatory approval. We are keen on MTN Ghana for two key reasons: 1. Still some upside. Despite being valued at 7.1x EV/EBITDA, we believe there is still some upside. In our opinion, management s guidance is conservative given the impact mobile financial services and data have on EBITDA going forward as well as the potential impact 4G could have on enterprise value. From our valuation, FY18 EV/EBITDA stands at 5.2x which implies a potential 12-month total return of 38.4%. 2. Growth from mobile money & data is enormous. While we believe growth from voice has plateaued and could potentially decline, we see significant growth opportunities in data and mobile money. According to the National Communication Authority, data penetration is 80.9% with MTN having 56.5% of market share. We believe data penetration could increase an additional 800bps over the next five years and this will have a positive impact on data ARPU (Average revenue per user). We also see significant traction in fixed line broadband on the back of 4G fiber internet. 4
5 With regards to the outlook on mobile financial services, particularly mobile money, we remain optimistic. Despite the potential drop in MTN Ghana s market share as a result of mobile money interoperability, we think that any material competitive pressure will require significant capital expenditure which will have to be deployed over a period. For portfolio strategy purposes, we will refrain from divulging the other two stocks at this stage. In conclusion, we are confident that our bottom-up process and value-based investing approach will see us successfully build resistance into our portfolio and deliver competitive returns regardless of recent headline news. Isaac Adomako Boamah, CFA Chief Investment Officer 5
QUARTERLY CIO LETTER. How deep is the rabbit hole? Summary. 15 October 2018
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 How deep is the rabbit hole? Summary With the exception of Europe, global economic growth increased over the quarter;
More informationHOW FAR CAN THE BULL RUN? 2018 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
HOW FAR CAN THE BULL RUN? 2018 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK CIO LETTER Safeguarding compelling returns By Isaac Boamah, CFA Isaac is the Chief Investment Officer. He is a CFA Charter holder with over 10 years working
More informationMexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018
Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for
More informationFinancial results presentation Full year 2013
Financial results presentation Full year 2013 1 Contents Presentation of Speakers 2013 Operating Environment & Banking Industry CAL Bank Performance Highlights Income Statement Balance Sheet Share Price
More informationTrends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds
Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds CPPC Conference August 2013 Cathe Tocher CFA, Senior Vice President AGENDA Introduction: Short-term noise pay attention Preparing for the future:
More informationT R U S T F U N D P E N S I O N S P L C
MARKET AND ECONOMIC COMMENTARY NOVEMBER 31, 2014 T R U S T F U N D P E N S I O N S P L C Investment Research MACROS EQUITIES BONDS MONEY MARKET ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS Outline Key Macro Variables Growth
More informationMyanmar Economic Monitor May 2018 Growth Amidst Uncertainty. Hans Anand Beck Lead Economist, Myanmar
Myanmar Economic Monitor May 2018 Growth Amidst Uncertainty Hans Anand Beck Lead Economist, Myanmar May 17, 2018 Key Takeaways The economy performed better in 2017/18 amidst uncertainty. A stronger-than-expected
More informationNESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates
NESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates September 18, 2017 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. For institutional
More informationSeptember 20, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 119 of 132. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
September 2, 26 Authorized for Public Release 119 of 132 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos September 2, 26 Authorized for Public Release 12 of 132 Class II Restricted FR 6. 5.75 5.5 5.25 5..75.5.25
More informationMAINTAIN BULLISHNESS; INCREASE EXPOSURE
First Capital Research MAINTAIN BULLISHNESS; INCREASE EXPOSURE First Capital Fixed Income Recommendation - 12 th OCT 18 Lead Analyst: Secondary Analyst: Atchuthan Srirangan Dimantha Mathew 1.0 New Recommendation
More information2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW
2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW MAY 2017 0 P a g e Overview The performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2017 was on a positive trajectory with annual growth projected to be about 3.9 % from
More informationTerm Deposit Review: January 2019
Fixed Income Markets Credit Research 7 February 2019 Term Deposit Review: January 2019 Simon Fletcher Head of Research (+61) 3 9670 8615 simon.fletcher@bondadviser.com.au Charlie Callan Credit Analyst
More informationRBI s Monetary Policy Q : Expectations
RBI s Monetary Policy Q2 2012-13: Expectations RBI s Monetary Policy for Second Quarter 2012-13 is scheduled to be announced on 30-Oct- 12. The market expectations are once again divided over rate cut
More informationC A L B A N K L I M I T E D G H A N A S T O C K E X C H A N G E - M A Y
C A L B A N K L I M I T E D F I R S T Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 7 F A C T S B E H I N D T H E F I G U R E S P R E S E N T A T I O N G H A N A S T O C K E X C H A N G E - M A Y 2 0 1 7 D i s c l a i m e r This
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report August 2017
IGI Life Funds Performance Report August 2017 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI for the month of Aug-17 clocks in at +3.42%YoY CPI Inflation As per
More informationUK Economic Outlook July 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects UK housing market outlook Nowcasting current GDP growth PwC 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly stronger
More informationMonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017
q ING BANK A.Ş. ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP MonitorING Turkey October 17 Emerging Markets October 17 USD/TRY MonitorING Turkey Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan In 17, accelerated spending and
More informationCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LISTED UGANDAN BANKS
(Members of the NSE since 1954) 10 th Floor, Pension Towers, Loita Street P.O. Box 45396-00100 Nairobi, Kenya Tel: +254-20-3240000 Fax: +254-20-218633 Website: www.dyerandblair.com Bank of Baroda (Uganda)
More informationANOTHER TOUGH WEEK COMMENTARY REASSURANCE KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. October
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY October 29 2018 ANOTHER TOUGH WEEK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT
More informationPerformance and Outlook. December 2015
Performance and Outlook December 2015 Agenda Macro Picture Performance Highlights Q&A 2 Agenda Macro Picture Performance Highlights Fundamentals (IIP) Output conditions Inflation Rates Credit and Deposit
More informationAttachment A Financial Markets & Debt Portfolio Update October 21, 2016 Introduction Public Financial Management Inc. (PFM), financial advisor to the
Attachment A Financial Markets & Debt Portfolio Update October 21, 2016 Introduction Public Financial Management Inc. (PFM), financial advisor to the Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA) has prepared
More informationFIVE KEYS TO EMERGING MARKET OUTLOOK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We favor emerging market and U.S. equities for tactical asset allocations based primarily on our outlooks for global economic growth and earnings. We
More informationKEY MARKET TRENDS F O R J A N U A R Y 1 7,
KEY MARKET TRENDS F O R 2 0 1 8 J A N U A R Y 1 7, 2 0 1 8 While economic growth has been anemic in this expansion, momentum is picking up 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationAnalyst Meet Presentation Standalone Financial Results, Quarter Ended 30 Sep 2011
Analyst Meet Presentation Standalone Financial Results, Quarter Ended 30 Sep 2011 Agenda Business Environment Key Developments Performance Overview Projects Update Guidance Update 2 Global economy Recovery
More informationKey Trends in the US Economy, the Industrial and the Rail Sectors. Sam Kyei Chief Economist SAK ECONOMICS. December 5, 2018
Key Trends in the US Economy, the Industrial and the Rail Sectors Sam Kyei Chief Economist SAK ECONOMICS December 5, 2018 0 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS There are many exciting NABE events
More informationEconomic Summary. Visit us online at for the most recent market updates, Insights and Perspectives
Economic Summary During the June Meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.%. Encouraged by falling unemployment rates and rising
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationBeginning Date: January 2016 End Date: June Managers in Zephyr: Benchmark: Morningstar Short-Term Bond
Beginning Date: January 2016 End Date: June 2018 Managers in Zephyr: Benchmark: Manager Performance January 2016 - June 2018 (Single Computation) 11200 11000 10800 10600 10400 10200 10000 9800 Dec 2015
More informationTrustfund Pensions Plc
Trustfund Pensions Plc H1 Performance Report Update on the Economies, Markets and Portfolio Performance... Global Economy...Nigeria...Trustfund Pensions Plc Investment Department June 2016 Global Economy
More informationBeginning Date: January 2016 End Date: September Managers in Zephyr: Benchmark: Morningstar Short-Term Bond
Beginning Date: January 2016 End Date: September 2018 Managers in Zephyr: Benchmark: Manager Performance January 2016 - September 2018 (Single Computation) 11400 - Yorktown Funds 11200 11000 10800 10600
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
More informationFor personal use only
AMYF SERIES QUARTERLY UPDATE 1 OCTOBER 2016 31 DECEMBER 2016 SUMMARY AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND SERIES (AMYF SERIES) HIGHLIGHTS AMYF Series announced the following quarterly dividends and capital returns:
More informationMFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa
MFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa Stefan Nalletamby, Coordinator This presentation covers four sections 1. Impact of the financial crisis
More informationMonetary Policy Report I / 2018
Central Bank of Egypt Monetary Policy Report I / 218 Monetary Policy Report I / 218 Central Bank of Egypt Disclaimer The cut-off date for the data included in this report is May 17, 218. Some of the data
More informationCapturing Alpha Opportunities with the Nasdaq Commodity Crude Oil Index
Capturing Alpha Opportunities with the Nasdaq Commodity Crude Oil Index RICHARD LIN, CFA, NASDAQ GLOBAL INFORMATION SERVICES Executive Summary A volatile crude market has created many exciting trading
More informationThailand. Yield Movements. 126 Asia Bond Monitor
126 Asia Bond Monitor Thailand Yield Movements Thailand s local currency (LCY) government bond yields rose across all tenors between 31 August and 15 October (Figure 1). Double-digit increases in yields
More informationCAL BANK LIMITED FIRST QUARTER 2016 FACTS BEHIND THE FIGURES
CAL BANK LIMITED FIRST QUARTER 2016 FACTS BEHIND THE FIGURES Investor & Analyst Presentation Ghana Stock Exchange May 2016 D I S C L A I M E R This report was prepared by CAL to provide background information
More informationNational Economic Conditions. Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby
National Economic Conditions Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby Percent Change Recovery is Technically Underway 8 Quarter-Quarter Growth in Real GDP 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 I II III IV I II III
More informationKEY MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS
January 04, 2019 KEY MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS Inflation Overall inflation increased marginally to 5.7 percent in December 2018 from 5.6 percent in November, but remained within target, mainly
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report January IGI Life Insurance Limited
IGI Life Funds Performance Report January 2019 IGI Life Insurance Limited July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: Headline inflation at +7.2% above market consensus CPI Inflation On the domestic macroeconomic
More informationMexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document
More informationOn 13 November 2018 you made a request to the Reserve Bank under section 12 of the Official Information Act (the OIA) seeking:
December Via email: Dear On 3 November you made a request to the Reserve Bank under section of the Official Information Act (the OIA) seeking: all Reserve Bank Financial System Roundups released for October
More informationEconomics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time
Economics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time DBS Group Research 14 June 2017 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been focusing on yield curve control after reforming its policy framework in Sep16 The recent decline
More informationINVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018
INVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018 OVERVIEW Surveys and hard data show the global economy growing at a healthy pace with minimal inflation risk. Activity accelerated in Q2 and our expectation of 3.4% GDP growth
More informationCAPITAL MARKETS AND FOREX OVERVIEW JULY 2016 REPORT
CAPITAL MARKETS AND FOREX OVERVIEW JULY 2016 REPORT NON-DISCLOSURE CLAUSE Union Capital Limited has prepared this material. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this
More informationInvestment Barometer November 2012 VTB Capital Investment Management Research Department
www.vtbcapital-im.com Investment Barometer November 212 VTB Capital Investment Management Research Department Contents Investment Outlook Market at a glance Methodology Contacts 2 Investment Outlook In
More informationMacro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 2018
Macro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 18 Investing in a mature cycle Erin Browne Head of Asset Allocation Evan Brown, CFA Director, Asset Allocation Roland Czerniawski, CFA Associate Director, Asset
More informationPBT growth slightly ahead of FY guidance. 9th November 2015 EQUITY RESEARCH THE COOPERATIVE BANK 3Q15 RESULTS REVIEW
PBT growth slightly ahead of FY guidance COOP s PBT increased by 33% y/y to KES 12.2bn, slightly ahead of management s full year guidance of 30%. The beat can be ascribed to a lower base as 9M14 s PBT
More informationCommodities Observing the fundamentals Written by: Dwayne Dippenaar, Research Analyst at Laurium Capital
FUNDS ON FRIDAY b y G l a c i e r R e s e a r c h 24 J u n e 2 0 1 6 V o l u m e 8 6 7 Commodities Observing the fundamentals Written by: Dwayne Dippenaar, Research Analyst at Laurium Capital The South
More informationEconomic & Revenue Forecast Tracking
Economic & Revenue Forecast Tracking April 2011 Employment and Financial Statement Data through 03/11 503-378-3455 OEA.info@state.or.us http://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/index.shtml A. Macroeconomic Environment
More informationAuction of DGB Opening auction of new 10Y DGB on Wednesday 25 January. Frederik Nordsborg. Maria Holm Rasmussen 20 January 2017
1 Auction of DGB 227 Opening auction of new 1Y DGB on Wednesday 2 January Frederik Nordsborg Maria Holm Rasmussen 2 January 217 DGB 227: Main arguments and pricing Pros (tight pricing) DKK callable covered
More informationBNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook
7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,
More informationStrategy Report 2017
Dimantha Mathew Head of Research Strategy Report 2017 SRI LANKA Uncertainty provides volatility; Hope in 2H2017 Table of Contents 2 1.0 Track Record 3 2.0 GDP Growth Outlook 2017... 8 3.0 Factors to Consider
More informationThe labor market has continued to strengthen and economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace this year.
Current Economic Climate Overview The Federal Reserve publishes a report (known as the Beige Book) eight times per year that summarizes current economic conditions throughout the twelve Federal Reserve
More informationMAY 2018 Capital Markets Update
MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were
More information14:45 16:00 - STREAM 1- Marly. Are Euro Debt Capital Markets a Sustainable Option to Fulfill Funding Requirements in the Current Financial Crisis?
14:45 16:00 - STREAM 1- Marly 1 Are Euro Debt Capital Markets a Sustainable Option to Fulfill Funding Requirements in the Current Financial Crisis? 2 Are Euro Debt Capital Markets a Sustainable Option
More informationRBI s Q Monetary Policy: Expectations
Amol Agrawal amol@stcipd.com +91-22-66202234 RBI s Q2 2011-12 Monetary Policy: Expectations RBI is scheduled to announce its second quarter 2011-12 monetary policy review on October 25, 2011. We expect
More informationJanuary 25, 2017 Financial Markets & Debt Portfolio Update Contra Costa Transportation Authority Introduction Public Financial Management Inc. (PFM),
January 25, 2017 Introduction Public Financial Management Inc. (PFM), financial advisor to the (CCTA) has prepared the following report as an update of market conditions through December 30, 2016. The
More informationANNUAL REPORT AND AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 APRIL
Nomura i-cash Fund ANNUAL REPORT AND AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 APRIL 2017 MANAGER: NOMURA ISLAMIC ASSET MANAGEMENT SDN. BHD. Business Registration No.: 838564-T TRUSTEE:
More informationACCESS BANK RIGHTS ISSUE
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Primary Market Watch Capitalising to push strategic growth plan Capital is key to achieving medium term strategic plan:
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report August 2017
IGI Life Funds Performance Report August 2017 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI for the month of Aug-17 clocks in at +3.42%YoY CPI Inflation As per
More informationImplementing Monetary Policy: Transition Tools
Implementing Monetary Policy: Transition Tools Julie Remache Central Banking Seminar Oct 6, 2015 The views expressed in this presentation reflect the author s and do not necessarily reflect that of the
More informationThe Wage Conundrum. coming months but likely fade as the year comes to a close. Chart 1. U.S., Eurozone and Japanese Core Inflation Remains Subdued
Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS The Wage Conundrum September, 17 Key Takeaways» Some market participants have taken the recent rebound in
More informationSIEMENS INDIA LIMITED RESEARCH
RESULTS REVIEW Siemens India Limited Hold Share Data Market Cap Rs. 196.1 bn Price Rs. 581.6 BSE Sensex 14,961.07 Reuters Bloomberg Avg. Volume (52 Week) SIEM.BO SIEM IN 0.2 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs. 1,142.5
More informationU.S. Wage Growth: Highest Since Dec-10 Jul-11. Jan-08 Jul-08. Jul-11 Jan-12. Jan-13. Jan-15. Jan-16. Jan-18. Jan-17. Jul-13. Jul-12.
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Surprise! Inflation? March 6, 2018 Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst Key takeaways» Last month s sell-off in global equities was arguably triggered
More informationAFFIN HWANG INCOME FOCUS FUND 3
AFFIN HWANG INCOME FOCUS FUND 3 Quarterly Report and Financial Statements As at 31 January 2019 Contents Page QUARTERLY REPORT... 2 STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME... 6 STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION...
More informationAfter the Rate Increase, What Then?
After the Rate Increase, What Then? Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist Bob.Eisenbeis@Cumber.com What the FOMC Did At Dec Meeting The Fed made the first step towards normalization
More informationFIXED INCOME UPDATE AUGUST 17
1 FIXED INCOME UPDATE AUGUST 17 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
More informationMARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018
MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK February 2018 1.0 Fixed Income Economics During the month, Malaysia s 4Q2017 GDP was released. Real Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) grew 5.9% YoY, slightly slower than the 6.2% recorded
More informationPUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT QUARTERLY REPORT JANUARY-MARCH 2018
PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT QUARTERLY REPORT JANUARY-MARCH 2018 GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE BUDGET DIVISION DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS JUNE 2018 www.dea.gov.in ii CONTENTS Section Page No. Introduction
More informationEconomic and market snapshot for January 2016
From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United
More information1 RED June/July 2018 JUNE/JULY 2018
1 RED June/July 20 JUNE/JULY 20 2 RED June/July 20 MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS Headline consumer inflation grew by 4.9 per cent in June 20 compared to 4.8 per cent recorded in May 20 Inflation rate (% y/y) 4.9 (June)
More informationMarkets at a Glance. India Q2 CY For Distributors use only
Markets at a Glance India Q CY 17 For Distributors use only India Macro Economy Trade Inflation Monetary Sector Valuations Liquidity Macro Economy GDP Emerging vs Developed (In % YoY) Credit Growth vs
More informationEconomic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months
Economic Outlook DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months GDP growth will be modest at approximately 2.5%, but the economy will experience periods of unstable growth. Consumer confidence will improve as
More informationRisk Insight. Does a flattening yield curve signal pain for the dollar? What are the chances... Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017.
Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 Does a flattening
More informationQatar Banking. Qatar Banks - Result Update 3Q11. Global Research Sector - Banking Equities - Qatar December 7, 2011
Qatar Banking Global Research Sector - Banking Equities - Qatar December 7, 2011 Qatar Banks - Result Update 3Q11 Profitability jumps by 17%YoY and 3% QoQ in 3Q11 Top-line grows on account of volume growth
More informationGrowing for nearly a decade. 114 months and counting, through December Will become longest Post-War expansion if it lasts through July
Economic Update Closing in on Expansion Record Byron Gangnes Professor of Economics Senior Research Fellow, UHERO University of Hawaii at Manoa VLI February 219 Hawaii Island Growing for nearly a decade
More informationGlobal Economic Watch
BBVA Research Global Economic Watch July 2018 / 1 Global Economic Watch July 2018 Steady global growth, but risks intensify Our BBVA-GAIN model projects that global growth could remain slightly above 1%
More informationSource: BI, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research
Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note Indonesia: Portfolio Capital Flows Ahead Of Fed s 18 Rate Outlook Tuesday, 1 November
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More informationWeekly Statistical Bulletin
1 / Central Bank of Kenya Statistical Bulletin Weekly Statistical Bulletin Key Monetary and Financial Indicators January 22, 2018 September 28, 2018 Inflation Overall inflation rose to 5.7 percent in September
More informationManaging Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia
Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Dr. Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor IIF Asian Regional Economic Forum Singapore, March 5, 2009 Outline 2 1. Crisis highlights 2. Macroconomic Condition
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 22 nd November, 2017
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2017 Governor s Presentation to the Media 22 nd November, 2017 INTRODUCTION 2 The presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary
More informationHighlights. Contact. The key data in review. Date Country Release/event Period Actual Prior
1 April 216 Contact Mamello Matikinca Economist 87 33 1678 Mamello.matikinca@fnb.co.za Jason Muscat Industry Analyst 87 33 189 Jason.Muscat@fnb.co.za Jarred Sullivan Economist 87 328 622 Jarred Sullivan@fnb.co.za
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2017)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2017) October 31, 2017 Bank of Japan The Bank's View 1 Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue expanding on the back of highly accommodative financial
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationQ MARKET PERSPECTIVES. Matthew F. Beaudry, CPA, CIMA, CMFC, CRPC, AAMS Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets
Q1 2018 MARKET PERSPECTIVES Matthew F. Beaudry, CPA, CIMA, CMFC, CRPC, AAMS Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Table of contents Accelerating global growth: Odds of a U.S. and global economic
More informationTerm Deposits. Deposit Review May Background on Term Deposits
Deposit Review May Term Deposits Simon Fletcher Head of Research (+61) 3 9670 8615 simon.fletcher@bondadviser.com.au Ethan Xing Quantitative Analyst (+61) 3 9670 8615 ethan.xing@bondadviser.com.au With
More informationWILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationPerspectives JAN Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities
Perspectives JAN 2018 2018 Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities SUSTAINED STRENGTH OR ONE HIT WONDER? Non-U.S. equity investors patience was finally rewarded with a banner year in 2017, as both strong economic
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report December IGI Life Insurance Limited
IGI Life Funds Performance Report December 2018 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI for the month of Dec-18 up by 6.16%YoY: CPI Inflation For the month
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook: recent developments
U.S. Economic Outlook Recent developments Washington, D.C., 6 February 2018 This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, under the supervision of Inés Bustillo, Director, ECLAC
More informationMACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY REPORT OCTOBER 2018 MACROECONOMIC POLICY DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT www.finance.go.ug TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES... ii LIST OF FIGURES...
More informationStandard Bank Group : J' :ź? WN ī 5' :Tź :TJ' ī ' 'T 55i : 5 ':T J T ': : ' 5 N?5WT'?:N HJ?b' J Ąā 1W: ăāăĉ
Standard Bank Group OVERVIEW OF STANDARD BANK GROUP AFRICA IS OUR HOME, WE DRIVE HER GROWTH ON-THE-GROUND PRESENCE IN 2 SUB-SAHARAN COUNTRIES OFFICES IN SIX KEY CENTRES 1 216 Branches 9 173 ATMs South
More informationTo us the 2 most important investment rules are: 1. Strive to never lose money 2. Never forget Rule 1!
To us the 2 most important investment rules are: 1. Strive to never lose money 2. Never forget Rule 1! This adage, made famous by Warren Buffet is our guiding light and we strive to ensure Capital preservation.
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More information