The Economic Outlook: Riding High (for Now)
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1 The Economic Outlook: Riding High (for Now) Karen Dynan Harvard University and Peterson Institute for International Economics Fall 218 Global Economic Prospects Meeting Washington, DC October 4, 218
2 The global outlook: expansion but uneven Real GDP Growth (Y/Y) Global Output Growth (PPP weights) US: fiscal-driven boom Euro Area: risks all around Japan: slower growth UK: prospects depend on Brexit outcome China: very gradual slowing India: back on track Russia: mixed recovery Brazil: held back by election uncertainty Source: International Monetary Fund for 217, PIIE for Annual-average-over-annual-average growth rates. 1
3 The modest upgrade to growth is US-driven Percentage Points Revisions to 218 GDP Growth (Y/Y) since Fall World United States Euro Area Source: Stockton (217); author's calculations. Japan United Kingdom China India Russia Brazil 2
4 Fiscal boost to growth in 218 and should give way to a fiscal drag by 22 Percentage Points Effect of Fiscal Stimulus Measures on GDP Growth Rate (Q4/Q4) Bipartisan Budget Act of Tax Law Total Low High Low High Low High Low High Note: High estimates based on multiplier in CEA (29); low estimates based on CBO as reported in CEA (214). Source: Congressional Budget Office (217; 218); Joint Committee on Taxation (217); Council of Economic Advisers (29, 214); Jason Furman's calculations. 3
5 US growth projected to be higher than potential over 218, 219 Percent Change Real GDP Growth (Q4/Q4) Actual Forecast Potential Output Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 4
6 Yielding a further tightening of labor markets and inflation above target Percent 1 Unemployment Rate (Q4) PCE Price Inflation (Q4/Q4) Headline Core Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 5
7 Household fundamentals are in very good shape Net Worth: Households and Nonprofits Ratio to Disposable Income Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. Percent of Disposable Income 14 Household Debt Service Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Haver Analytics. 6
8 The saving rate is now high by standards of the last 2 years Percent of Disposable Income 14 Personal Saving Rate 12 1 Current Pre-revision Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics. 7
9 We expect higher interest rates to weigh on housing demand but that will probably show up in more in prices than in activity S&P / Case-Shiller National Home Prices Percent Change, Annual Rate month Change 12-month Change 6-month Change Source: Standard & Poor's; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 8
10 Business investment has picked up this year Percent Change, Annual Rate Business Fixed Investment (BFI) Growth BFI 213:Q4 216:Q4 216:Q4 217:Q4 217:Q4 218:Q2 BFI excl. oil and mining equipment and structures Note: BFI excluding oil and mining equipment and structures calculated using Tornqvist approximation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Jason Furman; author's calculations. 9
11 Role of corporate tax cuts unclear as forwardlooking indicators started rising much earlier New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods excluding Aircraft Dollars, Millions 75, December 217 7, 65, 6, ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index Index (5+ = Expanding) December , Jan 15 Sep 15 May 16 Jan 17 Sep 17 May 18 Source: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics. Future Capital Expenditures Diffusion Index Index 45 December Richmond Philadelphia 35 3 Texas Average (Morgan Stanley) New York -5 Kansas City -1 Jan 15 Sep 15 May 16 Jan 17 Sep 17 May 18 Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, Dallas, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Morgan Stanley; Haver Analytics. 4 Jan 15 Sep 15 May 16 Jan 17 Sep 17 May 18 Source: Institute for Supply Management; Haver Analytics. Morgan Stanley Capex Plans Index Index 8 December Jan 15 Sep 15 May 16 Jan 17 Sep 17 May 18 Source: Morgan Stanley. 1
12 The dollar is strong (no surprise); net exports likely to be a small negative in 218, Real Broad Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index Index (March 1973 = 1) 15 Contribution of Net Exports to Q4/Q4 Real GDP Growth Percentage Points 1.2 Actual.8 Forecast Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Haver Analytics Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 11
13 2K+ payroll gains have partly shown up as further declines in unemployment Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands, 6-month Trailing Moving Average 4 Percent of Labor Force 12 Unemployment Rate Consistent with stable ageadjusted employment rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics; author's calculations Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 12
14 ... but also drawing workers in from the sidelines Percent 9 Prime-age Male Employment-Population Ratio Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics. Prime-age Female Employment-Population Ratio Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics. 13
15 Modest overshoot of inflation expected 12-month Percent Change Consumer Price Inflation Headline PCE Target Core PCE Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 14
16 Importantly, inflation expectations in check Percent Inflation Expectations Survey of Professional Forecasters: 1-Year, CPI Inflation Survey of Professional Forecasters: 1-Year, PCE Inflation Expectations 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectations Rate Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 15
17 Gradual normalization of monetary policy Percent 7 Effective Federal Funds Rate Percent 7 1-Year Treasury Yield 6 6 Average, Average, FOMC Median Expectation for Long-Run Federal Funds Rate Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Haver Analytics; author's calculations Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Haver Analytics; author's calculations. 16
18 The current expansion could become the longest on record Years 12 Duration of Economic Expansions since present Source: National Bureau of Economic Research; author's calculations. 17
19 Risks to the outlook A geopolitical event that unsettles markets A trade war that spills over into financial markets Inflation rising more sharply than expected resulting in a sharp Fed move (although the risk of disinflation seem at least as high as the risk of this scenario) A correction in US asset prices most experts think home prices are only a little rich and are not too worried about stock prices but, of course, experts have been wrong before The unexpected; recessions do not always follow a template so would be on the lookout for the unknown unknowns 18
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