Brazil Currency Perspectives
|
|
- Joy Lewis
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 , on. November 29 Brazil Currency Perspectives Research Ana Esteves ana.esteves@itaueuropa.pt María Insausti maria.insausti@itaueuropa.pt Bruno Baptista bruno.baptista@itaueuropa.pt Contents: 1. Scenario 2. Roadmap 3. Correlation Matrix 4. Macro Forecasts With emerging markets role in the global economy increasingly determinant and lower risk aversion in financial markets, local currencies are likely to be on the spotlight going forward. In particular, the BRL, the currency of Brazil, a country that remained rather resilient in the whole financial crisis, and which still has attractive real interest rates, has been outperforming most of its peers since the beginning of the year. Brazilian economic growth as it is, boosted by future events such as exploration of the pre-salt oil areas and forthcoming global sport events (World Cup and Olympics) suggests higher investment in the economy which could come in either forms of physical or financial capital. Foreign investors anticipating returns in several business areas, much influenced by the commodity related potential of Brazil and the need for infrastructure investment, are likely to continue to boost foreign direct investment. On the other hand, financial investors, attracted by high interest rates, should also remain prone to invest in local financial markets. Demand for Brazilian products abroad continues rising. What is more, exports growth has been fuelled by other emerging markets such as China, as their economy outperforms the developed world. If exporters sell more, they should need to convert increasing amounts of cash into local currency, pressuring demand for BRL. USD weakness could also be a positive for the Brazilian and other emerging market currencies. Low interest rates in US, for a longer period than the market anticipates, reserve diversification by central banks and higher risk premium for US on the back of high government debt are the key reasons that lead us to believe in a strong BRL in the coming future. Economic momentum gathering pace and domestic demand remaining strong could have a contrarian effect, especially in a longer time horizon. Domestic growth could fuel imports and exert a contrary pressure on the BRL. Foreign investors in Brazil could raise the amount of profits and dividends they send abroad and cash laden Brazilian companies could materialize their internationalization ambitions and increase the amounts invested abroad too, similarly to what Ambev has done. Moreover, long-term interest rate convergence should also weight negatively on the currency. The recently created sovereign wealth fund, could serve as a government instrument to stabilize the currency, i.e., depreciate the currency, as exporters complain about a strong BRL hurting the country s competitiveness. Moreover, foreign investment in Brazil's fixed income and equity markets is now subject to a 2% IOF tax payable upfront, that is, upon conversion into local currency. FDI remains exempted. According to FM Mantega, the objective is to reduce currency appreciation and prevent the development of a bubble in asset prices. Evidence from Brazil and other countries suggests that taxation of inflows is not effective as a tool to permanently alter the exchange rate. In March 28, when this same tax was adopted with the same objective (with a rate of 1.5% on FI flows only), the BRL weakened slightly, only to resume its appreciating trend a few days later. It eventually touched on 1.56 in August, and plummeted back in September in the wake of the Lehman collapse. The tax was discontinued in October. We view currency market intervention as a temporary shock on the currency, as fundamentals are all that matters in the long run. That said, we expect to stand at 1.7 at year-end, and we are projecting a stable exchange rate in real terms going forward, closing 21 at All estimates by Itaú Unibanco Economic Team Please see page 7 of this report for important disclosures.
2 Itaú Europa Brazil Currency Perspectives November Scenario Brazil s economy has recovered faster and stronger than many expected since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The job market has demonstrated remarkable resilience and is already showing consistent signs of recovery. Conditions in credit markets, particularly in the household segment, have improved, as spreads narrowed, average repayment terms increased and, more recently, average credit concessions jumped. Credit quality ceased to deteriorate with NPL/total loans stabilizing at 4.4% since July according to Central Bank s data. Together, those factors should ensure a flat GDP growth in 29 compensating the recession experienced in the first half of the year. Thereafter, we expect the Brazilian economy to outpace the world s average GDP growth by expanding 5.5% in 21 and 4.6% in 211. On a medium term perspective, planned investment in infrastructures for the World Cup and the Olympics and for the pre-salt oil exploration area should add to positive economic momentum. Even in this scenario, we believe that inflation will remain contained in 29 and 21. There are, however, risks that inflation drifts higher in 211. We expect IPCA to stand at 4.3% and 4.1% in 29 and 21, respectively, remaining comfortably lower than the BCB s mid-target at 4.5%, with low risks of upside surprises. In 211, however, consumer inflation should start to reflect current expectations of activity pick-up. The robust growth in demand should become the main driver of inflation pressures in 211. The outlook for faster growth, and inflation upturn starting in 2H1, should persuade the Central Bank to start a tightening cycle already in 21. We expect a total hike of 15bps, pushing the Selic to 1.25% by year-end 21. By acting in a preemptive manner, monetary authorities would avert the need for a larger tightening further down the road. Foreign investors should remain interested in the country, bolstering demand for BRL. Both portfolio inflows and FDI should continue to rise, as suggested by the strong IPO pipeline on tap for the next few months and by our expectation of FDI increasing up to 85 bn USD by 212. As a result, we expect the BRL to stand at 1.7/USD at year-end. After that, we are projecting a stable exchange rate in real terms, closing 21 at 1.73/USD. As the local economic growth outpaces the global average, and the BRL remains strong, we estimate an 24.5 bn USD trade surplus in 29, but expect a 2.2 bn USD trade deficit in 21. The currentaccount deficit is on track to reach 1.2% of GDP this year, and in 21, the current account gap should rise to 3.1% of GDP. This deficit should be comfortably financed, either via stronger FDI inflows (we expect a 2.4% increase in 21), and portfolio inflows. In a longer-term perspective, we expect Brazilian real interest rates to converge to those of peers. For example, Mexico (Baa1/BBB+/BBB+) and Peru (Ba1/BBB-/BBB-), which are rated similar to Brazil (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-), have benchmark rates of 4.5% and 1.25%, respectively, and zero or even negative real rates. At year-end 28, benchmark rates were 6.5% in Peru, 8.25% in Mexico and 1% in Brazil, while 28 inflation was 6.5% in Peru and Mexico and 5.9% in Brazil. Do the math and see that the tendency for Brazilian rates should be downwards. That said, although our expectation is for a strong BRL but with limited upside potential from current levels, in the short-term risks are clearly skewed to the upside
3 Itaú Europa Brazil Currency Perspectives November Road Map What could appreciate the BRL? Commodity Prices: Higher commodity prices have been associated with BRL appreciation and USD depreciation: BRL appreciation against the USD and Commodity Prices 1/ 12/ 11/1 1/2 9/3 8/4 7/5 6/6 5/7 4/8 3/ USD and Commodity Prices 1/ 12/ 11/1 1/2 9/3 8/4 7/5 6/6 5/7 4/8 3/ CRB (right reverse order) DXY CRB (right reverse order) Source: Bloomberg, BIE. Commodity Prices: Brazil is mostly a commodity exporter and exports should be positively influenced by high commodity prices. Brazil Export Products 34% 66% Commodity Non commodity Source: Bloomberg, BIE, Itaú Unibanco. Exports: The higher the export volume the higher the demand for BRL, Brazil s export profile has been improving targeting fast growing countries. Main destinations for Brazilian Exports (12-month accumulated / total) vs Monthly Exports 1/ 12/ 11/1 1/2 9/3 8/4 7/5 6/6 5/7 4/8 3/ % 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 12% 11% 8% 5% 4% 3% Monthly Exports (right) Dec-89 Dec-9 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec- Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Dec-7 USA Germany Netherlands Argentina Japan China Dec-8 Source: Bloomberg, BIE, Itaú Unibanco. Mn USD
4 Itaú Europa Brazil Currency Perspectives November 29 FDI: The higher foreign direct investment the higher the demand for BRL. FDI is supportive for the currency compensating possible negative effects coming from current account deficits vs FDI 1/ 12/ 11/1 1/2 9/3 8/4 7/5 6/6 5/7 4/8 3/ Monthly FDI (right) Source: Bloomberg, BIE. Mn USD. Financial Flows: The higher financial investment the higher the demand for BRL. Nevertheless, the volatility of financial flows could be a negative influence over foreign exchange stability vs Financial Investment 1/ 12/ 11/1 1/2 9/3 8/4 7/5 6/6 5/7 4/8 3/ % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% FX Flows YTD Financial Investment Financial Commercial Source: Bloomberg, BIE. Mn USD. Weakness of the USD: In the short term, with a looser monetary policy in place, and in the longer term, with government reserve diversification and high government deficits, the USD could remain under pressure against most of the currencies. 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% Change Between 26 and 21E 2.% 1.%.% USD EUR GBP JPY CHF Other %.% -5.% -1.% USA UK Japan Canada France Germany Italy Budget balance/gdp Net debt/gdp Source: Bloomberg, BIE
5 Itaú Europa Brazil Currency Perspectives November 29 What could depreciate the BRL? Imports: With economic growth on track and a strong currency, domestic demand could pressure imports up. Also companies operating in Brazil could be induced to repatriate profits and dividends. We expect a current account deficit going forward. 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% External Accounts E 21E Current account % GDP Trade balance Current account Source: Bloomberg, BIE, Itaú Unibanco. Bn USD. Brazilian Companies Investing Abroad: Similarly to the move made by Ambev, other Brazilian companies could aim at internationalization, pressuring the currency down Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad Source: Bloomberg, BIE. Negative data means money outflow from Brazil into foreign countries. Mn USD. Real Interest Rates Convergence: As economies develop and market efficiency improves, the cost of capital tends to decrease. Mexico and Peru are other examples, despite not having such a long history as developed countries Real Rates Convergence 1/9 2/91 3/92 4/93 5/94 6/95 7/96 8/97 9/98 1/99 11/ 11/1 11/2 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 US UK EU Source: Bloomberg, BIE. %
6 Itaú Europa Brazil Currency Perspectives November Correlation Matrix 4- Macroeconomic Forecasts E 21E World Economy World GDP growth USA Euro Area Japan China External Sector & Exchange Rate BRL / USD eop BRL / USD year avg Exports USD bn Imports USD bn Trade balance USD bn Total Trade Flows (exp + imp) % GDP Current Account USD bn Current Account % GDP Foreign Direct Investment USD bn Foreign Direct Investment % GDP International reserves, cash USD bn International reserves % GDP Economic Activity Nominal GDP BRL bn Nominal GDP USD bn Real GDP growth Inflationn IPCA IGP M Interestt Rate Selic eop Selic year avg Real interest rate (Selic/IPCA) - eop Public Finances Primary budget surplus % GDP 2 Nominal budget surplus % GDP 2 Net Debt % GDP 2 5.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.% 11.6% % % % % 2, , % 3.1% 3.8% 1% 15.1% 9.8% 3.4% -3.4% 46.1% 5.2% 2.% 2.7% 2.4% 11.9% % 2.1% % % 2, , % 4.5% 7.8% 11.25% 12.% 6.5% 3.5% -2.7% 43.9% 3.%.4%.7% -.7% 9.% % % % % 2, , % 5.9% 9.8% 1% 12.5% 7.4% 3.7% -2.% 38.8% -1.2% -2.6% -3.7% -5.2% 8.% % % % % 3,15.5 1,511.8.% 4.3% -.8% 8.75% 9.9% 4.3% 1.6% -3.6% 42.9% 3.4% 2.1% 1.% 1.3% 8.5% % % % % 3, , % 4.1% 4.1% 1.25% 9.7% 5.9% 2.4% -2.8% 41.9% Source: Itau Unibanco
7 Itaú Europa Brazil Currency Perspectives November 29 DISCLAIMER RELEVANT INFORMATION For disclosure statements associated with the companies discussed in this report, please contact Banco Itaú Europa S.A. at ( ) or 1. This report has been produced by Banco Itaú Europa, S.A., and/or by one of its branches or subsidiaries (together, referred to as Banco Itaú Europa ), supervised by both Banco de Portugal (Central Bank of Portugal) and CMVM (Securities and Exchange Commission of Portugal) and distributed by Banco Itaú Europa or one of its affiliates (altogether, Itaú Unibanco Group ). Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Itau Unibanco Group entity in the investor s home jurisdiction. 2. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute or should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information herein is believed to be reliable as of the date in which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Itaú Unibanco Group does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the completeness, reliability or accuracy of such information, nor is this report intended to be a complete statement or summary of the investment strategies, markets or developments referred to herein. Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed herein constitute the current judgment of the analyst responsible for the substance of this report as of the date on which it was issued and are therefore subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments are indicative only and subject to change without notice. Banco Itaú Europa has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report and inform the reader accordingly, except when terminating coverage of the issuer of the securities discussed in this report. 3. The analyst responsible for the production of this report hereby certifies that the views expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions about any and all of the subject issuers or securities and were prepared independently and autonomously, including from Banco Itaú Europa. Because personal views of analysts may differ from one another, Banco Itaú Europa, its subsidiaries and affiliates may have issued or may issue reports that are inconsistent with, and/or reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. The analyst responsible for the preparation of this report is not registered and/or qualified as a research analyst with the NYSE or FINRA, and is not associated with Itaú USA Securities Inc. and, therefore, may not be subject to Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. 4. An analyst s compensation is determined based upon total revenues of Banco Itaú Europa, a portion of which is generated through investment banking activities. Like all employees of Banco Itaú Europa, its subsidiaries and affiliates, analysts receive compensation that is linked by overall profitability. For this reason, analyst s compensation can be considered to be indirectly related to this report. However, the analyst responsible for the content of this report hereby certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendation or views contained herein or linked to the pricing of any of the securities discussed herein. The analyst declares that (s)he does not maintain any relationship with any individual who has business of any nature with the companies and does not receive any compensation for services rendered to or have any commercial relationship with the companies or any individual or entity representing the interests of the companies. According to Banco Itaú Europa compliance policy, the analyst(s) and any member of his/her household do not hold, directly or indirectly, any securities issued by the companies analyzed in this report in his/her personal investment portfolio, nor is (s)he personally involved in the acquisition, sale or trading of such securities in the market. Neither the analyst nor any member of the analyst s household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies analyzed in this report. Itau Unibanco Group and the funds, portfolios and securities investment clubs managed by Itaú Unibanco Group may have direct or indirect stake equal to, or higher than, 1% (one percent) of the capital stock of the companies, and may have been involved in the acquisition, sale or trading of such securities in the market. 5. Itaú Unibanco Group may have a position in the financial instruments analyzed in this report from time to time, but does not have any conflict of interest in relation to the companies analyzed herein. 6. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should obtain relevant documents from financial instruments and exchange institutions and confirm its contents. Investors should obtain independent financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision based on the information contained herein. Final decision on investments must be made by you considering various risks, fees and commissions. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor s currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the financial instrument, and the reader of this report assumes any currency risk. Income from financial instruments may vary, and their price or value, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made herein regarding future performances. Itaú-Unibanco Group does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its content. 7. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior written consent of Banco Itaú Europa. Additional information on the financial instruments discussed in this report is available upon request. Additional Note to reports distributed in: (i)u.k. and European: Banco Itaú Europa, S.A., London Branch, that is authorized by Banco de Portugal and authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), is distributing this report to investors who are Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients, pursuant to FSA rules and regulations. If you do not, or cease to, fall within the definition of Eligible Counterparty or Professional Client, you should not rely upon the information contained herein and should notify Banco Itaú Europa S.A. London Branch immediately. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail customers; (ii) U.S.: Itaú USA Securities Inc., a FINRA/SIPC member firm, is distributing this report and accepts responsibility for the content of this report. Any US Person receiving this report and wishing to effect any transaction in any security discussed in this report should do so with Itaú USA Securities Inc. at 54 Madison Avenue, 23rd Floor, New York, NY; (iii) Asia: \This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Itau Asia Securities Limited, which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activity. Itau Asia Securities Limited accepts all regulatory responsibility for the content of this report. In Hong Kong, any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact Itau Asia Securities Limited at 18th Floor, One IFC, Hong Kong, Central; (iv) Japan: This report is distributed in japan by Itau Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch, Registration Number (FIEO) 2154, Director, Kanto Local Finance Bureau, Association: Japan Securities Dealers Association; (v) Middle East: This information has been distributed by Itaú Middle East Securities Limited. Related financial products or services are only available to wholesale clients with liquid assets of over $1 million, and who have sufficient financial experience and understanding, to participate in financial markets in a wholesale jurisdiction. Itaú Middle East Securities Limited is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). In Middle East, any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact Itaú Middle East Securities Limited, at Park Place, 1 th Floor (15), Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; (vi) Brazil: Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., a subsidiary of Banco Itaú S.A authorized by the Central Bank of Brazil and approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil, is distributing this report. If necessary, contact the Client Service Center: * (capital and metropolitan areas) or (other locations) (during business hours, from 9: a.m. to 8: p.m.). If you wish to revaluate the presented solution, after utilizing these channels, talk to Itaú s Corporate Complaints Office: (on business days from 9: a.m. to 6: p.m.) or Caixa Postal 67.6, São Paulo-SP, CEP * Local call cost - 7 -
FX and Capital Markets
FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week November, 1 Domestic and international drivers pressure the BRL Brazilian currency underperformed its peers last week Improved data on the U.S. economy released
More informationFX and Capital Markets
FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week May, 7 BRL outperforms peer currencies during the week BRL remains virtually stable in a week of emerging market currencies depreciation Falling commodity
More informationBrazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week
Brazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week Monday, May 11, 1 International Market Reopens for Brazilian Issuances Brazilian currency appreciated again last week. Notwithstanding some depreciation
More informationFX and Capital Markets
FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week June, 7 Weaker U.S. labor market boosts the BRL Brazilian currency rebounds Weaker figures on the U.S. labor market undermined the dollar against many currencies,
More informationBrazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week
Brazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week Monday, April 7, 1 Currency flow remains positive Brazilian currency maintained the good performance of the previous weeks. The real kept last week
More informationMacro Vision June 13, 2017
Macro Vision June 13, 2017 Country risk: how far can it reach? The global environment has been favorable to emerging markets, despite the recent drop in commodity prices. Better global growth and lower
More informationMacro Vision February 20, 2017
Macro Vision February 20, 2017 Finding MXN equilibrium in more challenging conditions Traditional exchange rate models indicate that the Mexican peso is undervalued. When presenting the results, we are
More informationMacro Vision October 2, 2017
Macro Vision October 2, 2017 How the TLP can impact monetary policy In this report, we estimate that, when fully implemented, the new long-term interest rate (TLP) will allow a reduction of about 2.2 p.p.
More informationReleased last Friday, industrial production came at 3.57% year-on-year in August, weaker than market estimates (3.8) and higher than our call (2.5).
LatAm Talking Points LatAm Talking Points: Mexican Manufacturing Declines in August Talk of the Day Mexico Released last Friday, industrial production came at 3.57% year-on-year in August, weaker than
More informationPublic Sector Posts a Primary Deficit in May
Brazil Monday, June 30, 2014 Public Sector Posts a Primary Deficit in May Highlights The public sector posted a primary deficit of 11.0 billion real in May, the lowest for the month in the series started
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco January 2018 Roadmap Global Economy Goldilocks scenario continues Global growth to remain at 3.8% in 2018. Growth in developed countries
More informationBrazil Review. Depreciation of the Real Sharpens. The Brazilian Economy in March 2015
Brazil Review Wednesday, April 01, 2015 Depreciation of the Real Sharpens The Brazilian Economy in March 2015 GDP growth reached 0.1% in 2014. The latest confidence and employment indicators showed a further
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco December 2017 Roadmap Global Economy Solid global growth and higher interest rates in 2018 We expect global growth to continue at 3.8%
More informationWeakening Fiscal Performance in the 1Q14
Brazil Wednesday, April 30, 2014 Weakening Fiscal Performance in the 1Q14 Highlights The public sector s primary budget surplus was slightly better than expected in March (actual: 3.6 billion real; consensus:
More informationSector Insights. Autos. Sales Performance Remains Strong. Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles
Sector Insights Tuesday, May 28, 2013 Autos Sales Performance Remains Strong Following all-time-high sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2012, which were stimulated by government incentives,
More informationMacro Brazil July 21, 2017
Macro Brazil July 21, 2017 Copom Cockpit: The disinflationary scenario prevails The Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will meet again next week. Recent data pictures an environment
More informationMacro Vision December 12, 2016
Macro Vision December 12, 2016 FAQs: Social Security Reform (PEC 287) The Brazilian government recently sent to Congress a Social Security reform proposal (PEC 287), the next step in the structural fiscal
More informationMacro Vision July 25, 2016
Macro Vision July 25, 2016 Is Brazil coming out of the recession? Leading indicators already show some positive signs for activity. Does this mean that the economy is already coming out of the recession?
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco August 2017 Roadmap Global Economy Positive environment for emerging markets continues Global growth remains solid. We revised our GDP
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2018 Roadmap Global Economy Global growth on track, trade risk to fade Global growth has kept up a good pace, supported by easy
More informationCommodities Monthly Review
Commodities Monthly Review March 9, 2016 We forecast higher oil and lower iron ore prices Iron-ore prices rose to USD 60/ton from USD 40/ton, but fundamentals for the sector still point to the downside,
More informationDaniel Scioli leads the race to the presidency in October, but a runoff with Mauricio Macri in November is likely.
Latam in Depth Wednesday, September 09, 2015 ARGENTINA The day after Daniel Scioli leads the race to the presidency in October, but a runoff with Mauricio Macri in November is likely. The new administration
More informationElectoral Polls: Datafolha
Macro Research Electoral Polls: Datafolha January -, 1 Datafolha Polls Summary 1. Voting Intentions First Round. Rejection Rates First Round. Voting Intentions by region. Voting Intentions by income. Voting
More informationCommodities Monthly Review
Commodities Monthly Review Monday, December 02, 2013 Higher Iron Ore, Lower Crude Oil Prices We are raising our iron ore price forecasts due to stronger-than-expected demand and lower capacity from high-cost
More informationIU-MCI measures the market conditions and is also a good leading indicator of economic growth in the country, as indicated by econometric exercises.
Macro Vision Tuesday, September, 5 Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index We present the Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index IU-MCI for the Brazilian economy. IU-MCI measures the market conditions and
More informationBrazil Review March 1, 2018
Brazil Review March 1, 2018 Central Bank near the end of the easing cycle The Brazilian economy in February 2018 The Central Bank reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25 bps to 6.75% and signaled
More informationScenario Review - Brazil
Scenario Review - Brazil August 8, 2017 Tougher fiscal challenges The tax hike is not enough to meet the primary budget target, which will still require extraordinary revenues and other compensatory measures
More informationMacro Vision June 13, 2017
Macro Vision June 13, 2017 ECB: The tricky road to monetary policy normalization The Euro Area growth has improved, but inflation needs time to catch up. This scenario allows the ECB to recognize that
More informationMarkets Stabilize, GDP Grows 2.3% in 2013
Brazil Review Monday, March 03, 2014 Markets Stabilize, GDP Grows 2.3% in 2013 The Brazilian economy in February 2014 Financial markets have stabilized, with appreciation of the Brazilian real and a decline
More informationRecovery Disappoints, Real Depreciates
Brazil Review Monday, December 03, 2012 Recovery Disappoints, Real Depreciates The Brazilian economy in November 2012 The economic recovery disappointed in the third quarter, increasing the doubts about
More informationScenario Review - Brazil
Scenario Review - Brazil June 9, 2017 A setback for reforms and a more challenging scenario A more turbulent political scene tends to delay reforms in Congress, making fiscal rebalancing more difficult
More informationGlobal Monetary Policy Monitor
Global Monetary Policy Monitor Thursday, December, Brazil and Indonesia are the exception In November, 6 countries announced monetary policy decisions, six of them changing the monetary policy rate. The
More informationMacro Vision December 16, 2016
Macro Vision December 16, 2016 Brazilian states in crisis: diagnosis and solutions The financial crisis in the Brazilian states is structural and was caused by growing expenses, uncoordinated and badly
More informationContents. HSBC Group in the world. HSBC in Brazil. New Economic Scenario / Macroeconomic Forecasts
HSBC GLOBAL & LOCAL STRATEGY IN A NEW ECONOMIC SCENARIO Conrado Engel CEO & President of HSBC Bank Brasil 26 March 2010 The British Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Brazil - São Paulo 0 Contents HSBC
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized
More informationCommodities Monthly Review
Commodities Monthly Review June 2015 Lower agricultural prices despite El Niño Aggregate commodity prices have declined 2.7% since the end of April. We expect a 5.3% increase from current levels by year-end,
More informationEconomic Research Low isn t necessarily bad
a-- 2009 Brazil Outlook January 2009 Ana Esteves + 351 21 381 1090 ana.esteves@itaueuropa.pt Registered with CMVM María Insausti + 351 21 381 1149 maria.insausti@itaueuropa.pt Registered with CMVM Bruno
More informationReal Estate The pace of sales continues to fall in the residential market. The number of launches came down, but inventories remain high.
Brazil Orange Book July 2015 No signs of stabilization With information through July 06, 2015 This report, published six times per year, summarizes anecdotal information on current economic conditions
More informationBrazil Review June 1, 2018
Brazil Review June 1, 2018 Truckers strike on the spotlight The Brazilian economy in May 2018 The government approved several measures to end the truck driver s strike, with negative fiscal impact. GDP
More informationMonthly Outlook. June Summary
Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the
More informationBrazil s economic growth
Brazil s economic growth Real gross domestic product, 1980-2010 Percent change from preceding year 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: International Monetary Fund,
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationMacro Vision June 13, 2018
Macro Vision June 13, 2018 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia : Who has the greatest chances of winning? During the next few weeks, billions will direct their eyes toward Russia, the country hosting the 2018 World
More informationGlobal Monetary Policy Monitor
Global Monetary Policy Monitor January 017 Lower interest rates in South America In January, monetary policy decisions took place in 15 of the 33 countries that we monitor. On the tightening side, Turkey
More informationMacro Vision. Uncertain Recoupling Road for Latin America
Macro Vision Thursday, January 23, 2014 Uncertain Recoupling Road for Latin America From 2010 to 2013, emerging markets (EM) became the main engine of global growth, decoupling from advanced nations. Apparently,
More informationBrazil Review March 1, 2017
Brazil Review March 1, 2017 Congress debates Social Security Reform The Brazilian economy in February 2017 The Lower House Special Committee began its analysis of the Social Security Reform. The government
More informationLabor Market, Production Costs and Prices Faced with low growth, the appetite for hiring is low, and more sectors are announcing forced vacations.
Brazil Orange Book Monday, July 07, 2014 Weak Consumption, Production falls With information through July 3, 2014 This report, published six times per year, summarizes anecdotal information on current
More informationBrazil. Mauricio Oreng Senior Brazil Strategist Aug-17. Macroeconomic outlook. Marketing communication
Mauricio Oreng Senior Brazil Strategist Aug-17 Brazil Macroeconomic outlook Marketing communication Brazil s worst recession on record... 12 10 % real annual growth 8 6 4 2 0 GDP forecast 2017: 0.1% -2
More informationPortugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012
Q1 2012 Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation
More informationTempleton Latin America Fund A (Ydis) USD
Templeton Latin America Fund A (Ydis) USD Franklin Templeton Investment Funds Fund Manager Report Value Equity Product Details 1 Fund Assets $1,050,576,208.81 Fund Inception Date 28/02/1991 Number of Issuers
More informationLatin American Quarterly Outlook JULY 2011
Latin American Quarterly Outlook JULY 2011 LATIN AMERICA Real Estate Outlook Key Economic Themes Almost three years after the peak of the global crisis, Latin America has two contrasting stories: Mexico
More informationMarcopolo. Equity Research. Q1 beat our lowered forecasts; strong exports from Brazil. Brazil Transportation Company Note 04 May 2015
Equity Research Marcopolo Q1 beat our lowered forecasts; strong exports from Brazil Results were weak again, but above our call; EPS fell 37% y/y POMO posted a poor set of Q1 results (albeit better-than-expected),
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More information1- Macroeconomic Scenario
PREVI NOVARTIS MONTHLY REPORT May 15, 2014 1- Macroeconomic Scenario The economic recovery has been consolidating in the United States and Europe. In emerging markets, the momentum is positive but growth
More informationBLACKROCK GLOBAL ETP LANDSCAPE
BLACKROCK GLOBAL ETP LANDSCAPE SEPTEMBER The opinions expressed are as of September 30th and may change as subsequent conditions vary. Summary BlackRock ETP Research A cross-regional team analyzing global
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationPortugal. Lisbon, July 30th 2013
Lisbon, July 30th 2013 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform
More informationFX Swaps and Forwards
Dollar Funding of Second-to-Last Resort September 218 Zach Pandl Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212-92-5699 zach.pandl@gs.com Co-Head of Global FX, Rates and EM Strategy Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business
More informationSaudi Arabian Economy
Saudi Arabian Economy Economic Research Research Department ARC Research Team Tel. +966 11 211 937, research@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabia: Preliminary Govt. estimates for 219 budget point to expansionary
More informationEldorado. Fixed Income Research BTG Pactual Global Research. Weak Q3 on pulp/fx; despite attractive carry, overhangs remain
Fixed Income Research BTG Pactual Global Research Eldorado Brazil Paper Products FixedIncome 25 October 2016 Weak Q3 on pulp/fx; despite attractive carry, overhangs remain EBITDA down 43% y/y on unfavorable
More informationHSBC Brazil 2011 update Presentation to Investors
Wednesday 09 November 2011 HSBC Brazil 2011 update Presentation to Investors Conrado Engel Alvaro Azevedo Chief Executive Officer HSBC Brazil Chief Financial Officer HSBC Brazil Forward-looking statements
More informationSwiss Economy 2018 outlook
Economic and Financial Analysis 15 December 2017 Article 15 December 2017 Swiss Economy 2018 outlook Global Economics The Swiss National Bank will have to wait until late 2019 before the current activity
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationMarket Bulletin. The LIBOR spike. May 1, In brief. What is LIBOR and why does it matter?
Market Bulletin May, 8 The LIBOR spike In brief One of the most important interest rates in global financial markets, U.S. LIBOR, has spiked causing some investors to fear that there is a fundamental problem
More informationFlash Economics. What adjustments are possible when unemployment returns to the structural unemployment level?
June 1 - What adjustments are possible when unemployment returns to the structural unemployment level? It seems clear that unemployment is now close to the structural unemployment rate in the, the euro
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationFLASH NOTE CURRENCIES: USD/JPY A DIFFICULT BALANCE SUMMARY. PICTET WEALTH MANAGEMENT ASSET ALLOCATION & MACRO RESEARCH 17 October 2018.
Author LUC LUYET lluyet@pictet.com SUMMARY While widening interest rate differentials are supportive of the US dollar against the yen, if rates rise too far and too fast, they can help the yen against
More informationSaudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014
Research Department Md. Rahmatullah Khan, Economic analyst Tel: +966 1 211 9319, khanmr@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabian economy Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014 Saudi Arabian
More informationErste Group Bank AG H results presentation 30 July 2010, Vienna
Erste Group Bank AG H1 2010 results presentation, Vienna Andreas Treichl, Chief Executive Officer Manfred Wimmer, Chief Financial Officer Bernhard Spalt, Chief Risk Officer Erste Group business snapshot
More informationGlobal growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections.
Monday January 21st 19 1:05pm International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Senior Economic Analyst (Research & Analytics) ravi.kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com World Economic Outlook: A Weakening Global Expansion
More informationTempleton Latin America Fund A (Ydis) USD
Templeton Latin America Fund A (Ydis) USD Franklin Templeton Investment Funds Fund Manager Report Blend Equity Product Details 1 Fund Assets $1,076,825,961.83 Fund Inception Date 28/02/1991 Number of Issuers
More informationFlash Economics. Could there no longer be any credible reserve currency? 22 March
22 March 217-311 Could there no longer be any credible reserve currency? We consider an extreme situation in which there would no longer be any credible international reserve currency: If Donald Trump's
More informationCVC. Equity Research. Another solid sales showing. Latin America Retailing Company Note 07 April 2015
Equity Research CVC Another solid sales showing Promotional environment drove sales in Q1 Bookings rose 11% y/y to R$1.269bn, supported by 6.4% SSS and the opening of 105 stores (totaling 919 exclusive
More informationSaudi Arabian Economy
Saudi Arabian Economy Economic Research Research Department ARC ResearchTeam, Tel. +966 1 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com IMF hikes Saudi Arabia s 2018 growth forecast The IMF raised Saudi Arabia
More informationFlash Note Switzerland: Q2 GDP growth
FLASH NOTE Flash Note Switzerland: Q2 GDP growth The devil is in the details Pictet Wealth Management - Asset Allocation & Macro Research 7 September 2018 Yes, the Swiss economy is booming. GDP grew by
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January September 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January September 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years
More informationChina and Hong Kong Forex Market Developments One-way appreciation carrying into the new year
China and Hong Kong Forex Market Developments One-way appreciation carrying into the new year January 218 Monthly publication Alicia Garcia Herrero Chief Economist Asia Pacific +852 39-868 alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com
More informationFigure 1 Global Economic Data
Global perspective Economic Research Research Department ARC Research Team Tel: 966 11 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com Global economic data improves, but outlook remains uncertain Medium-term risks
More informationThe USD/CNY Adjustment Is It Complete?
The USD/CNY Adjustment Is It Complete? Derek Halpenny European Head of Global Currency Research European Central Bank June 29 1 Substantial REER Appreciation 1 USD/CNY vs Renminbi REER 9 8 7 6 5 12 11
More informationThe Greek Bond Market in 2007
The Greek Bond Market in 2007 15 YEAR BENCHMARK ISSUE MAY 2007 MARKET ANALYSIS +30 210 326 2070, marketanalysis@alpha.gr Financial Markets Group Planning Department Please refer to important Disclaimer
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationGrupo Sura. Equity Research. 4Q14: FX distorts a continuation of good operating trends
Equity Research Grupo Sura 4Q14: FX distorts a continuation of good operating trends Operating lines beat us (again), but FX losses hit bottom line (as expected) Sura s 4Q14 insurance and asset management
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting
More informationVIX to Fall; Stocks to Rise; Small to Outperform
RBC Capital Markets, LLC October 14, 2014 VIX to Fall; Stocks to Rise; Small to Outperform Market Delivers Above-Average Returns Following Volatility Spikes Investor concerns regarding global growth have
More informationQualicorp. Equity Research. Bahia state court ruling suspends price hike for SULA plans
Equity Research BTG Pactual Affiliate Research Banco BTG Pactual S.A. Latin America Health Care SectorNote 04 July 2016 Bahia state court ruling suspends price hike for SULA plans Negative news, but with
More informationMay *EU Periphery Sovereigns include bonds from countries such as Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.
May 2014 Rates are stuck in a holding pattern - US and UK 10-year yields have been range bound since late January, while euro-area rates have drifted lower. While technical factors may have contributed
More informationFLASH NOTE CHINA: SHIFTING BALANCE OF PAYMENT CONSISTENT CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IS BEHIND US SUMMARY
CONSISTENT CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IS BEHIND US Author DONG CHEN dochen@pictet.com SUMMARY In the first three quarters of the year, China ran a current account deficit of USD12.8 billion. It looks likely
More informationCountry Risk Analytics
Emerging Markets Country Risk Analytics MacroFinance Research Quarterly - 2018 Q2 www.taceconomics.com www.taceconomics.com 2 Country Risk Analytics EM Quarterly MacroFinance Research 2018 Q2 Description
More informationFlash Note Currencies: EUR/USD
FLASH NOTE Flash Note Currencies: EUR/USD Short-term hurdles to euro strength Pictet Wealth Management - Asset Allocation & Macro Research 18 June 2018 The ECB s commitment on rates announced at its June
More informationMarket Bulletin. 4Q17 earnings update: Let s talk about taxes. January 31, In brief. Safety in earnings
Market Bulletin January 31, 2018 4Q17 earnings update: Let s talk about taxes In brief While higher volatility may be on the horizon, healthy earnings growth should prevent minor pullbacks from becoming
More informationMIXED MESSAGES. KEY POINTS The ANZ Truckometer indexes lifted in August.
ANZ RESEARCH 11 September 18 CONTACT: Sharon Zollner Chief Economist Telephone: +6 9 357 9 Email: Sharon.Zollner@anz.com The next issue of the ANZ Truckometer is scheduled for release on 9 October 18 at
More informationThe role of fixed income and the missing middle J.P. Morgan Asset Management
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION The role of fixed income and the missing middle J.P. Morgan Asset Management Sorca Kelly Scholte Managing Director
More informationKorea and Australia in a globalised world
Korea and Australia in a globalised world November 7 Amy Auster Head of International Economics Economics@ANZ Globalisation is the structural change of our time 7,, 5,, 3,, 1, Global merchandise trade
More informationY qué está pasando en Brasil?
Y qué está pasando en Brasil? Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist and Partner, Itaú Unibanco August, 2013 Summary Why has the Brazilian economy decelerated? The low growth and full employment paradox (new middle
More informationQuarterly Update on Valuation Metrics in Emerging Debt
Quarterly Update on Valuation Metrics in Emerging Debt September 2018 Carl Ross and Victoria Courmes The punch line: Due to the 26-bp spread tightening in the third quarter (to 362 bps), USD external debt
More informationGold - key charts, price outlook
13 October, 2017 www.icbcstandard.com This is a marketing communication which has been prepared by a trader, sales person or analyst of ICBC Standard Bank Plc, or its affiliates ( ICBCS ) and is provided
More information