Market Bulletin. The LIBOR spike. May 1, In brief. What is LIBOR and why does it matter?
|
|
- Zoe Conley
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Market Bulletin May, 8 The LIBOR spike In brief One of the most important interest rates in global financial markets, U.S. LIBOR, has spiked causing some investors to fear that there is a fundamental problem with the global interest rate market. Rather than rising on fundamental forces, the rise in LIBOR can be attributed to technical factors, including tightening U.S. monetary policy, repatriated overseas corporate profits and increased debt issuance from the U.S. Treasury. LIBOR may seem like a small cog in the financial machine, but the recent rise has potentially wide-ranging implications for investors if not addressed. Rising LIBOR has three important effects on investor portfolios: shifting cash allocations, potentially rising U.S. rates and increased opportunities in global fixed income. Alex Dryden, CFA Global Market Strategist Jordan Jackson Market Analyst What is LIBOR and why does it matter? LIBOR stands for London Inter-bank Overnight Rate, and it is defined as the cost of short-term borrowing between banks. Despite its name, the benchmark series is global in nature with LIBOR quoted in five currencies and serves as an important short-term fixed income benchmark with approximately $5 trillion worth of contracts globally trading off it, over times greater than the total market cap of global equities. As such, it is often a closely watched barometer of the financial health of the banking system - if LIBOR rates begin to rise, it can be a sign of financial stress. LIBOR also matters for mortgage repayments in the U.S. with $. trillion of adjustable rate mortgages tied to the benchmark, roughly % of outstanding housing debt. LIBOR is quoted in U.S. dollars, euros, British pounds (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss francs (CHF). Global LIBOR breakdown: U.S. dollar LIBOR is $5 trillion, Euro LIBOR is $5 trillion, JPY LIBOR is $ trillion, GBP LIBOR is $ trillion, CHF LIBOR is $7 trillion
2 MARKET BULLETIN MAY, 8 EXHIBIT : -month USD LIBOR Bps April 8: 6bps '8 '9 ' ' ' ' ' '5 '6 '7 Source: FactSet, ICE, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of April, 8. What has been happening recently? Since the end of 7, U.S. dollar LIBOR has been rising at an accelerated pace (Exhibit ). With so much of the global debt market linked to LIBOR, some investors are worried that it is a sign of deteriorating fundamentals. However, it appears that this year s increase has been driven by technical factors rather than fundamental fears. These factors are as follows:. Interest rate hikes As a short-term lending rate, LIBOR is sensitive to movements in the Federal funds rate. With the Fed underway with its rate hiking cycle, LIBOR has risen to reflect this. However, the Fed funds rate has risen by about 75 basis points over the past months, yet - month U.S. LIBOR has risen by basis points, meaning that the spike in LIBOR cannot be entirely explained by rate hikes and other factors must be at play.. Treasury issuance In order to partially fund the new tax act, the U.S. Treasury has increased debt issuance in the first quarter of 8, with a record $ billion of net new issuance. This has seen the supply of short-dated bonds increase substantially, driving down prices and forcing yields higher. The yield on a -month U.S. Treasury bill has increased by basis points in the last year, while the Fed funds rate has increased by only 75 basis points over the same time period.. Repatriation Under the new tax law, U.S. companies are set to repatriate some of the roughly $.7 trillion in cash held overseas. Most of that locked-up capital was invested in high-quality liquid investments, many of which are linked to LIBOR. As U.S. firms pull funds back home, the demand for LIBOR-linked products has fallen, resulting in falling prices and higher yields. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) LIBOR will not be around forever. In April 8, U.S. authorities introduced a new short-term rate called SOFR. Whereas LIBOR is calculated based on a survey sent to banks, which leaves it open to manipulation, SOFR is based on actual short-term transactions, making it more reliable. With over $5 trillion worth of contracts tied to U.S. LIBOR, it will take some time to transition all contracts over to the new system. Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. What does a rising LIBOR mean for investors? LIBOR may seem like just a small cog in the big financial machine, but it plays an important part in investors portfolios. There are three important ways in which rising U.S. LIBOR could impact investors.. Cash is back... sort of The increase in LIBOR has helped lift offered yields in short-dated liquidity markets. As shown in Exhibit, a higher LIBOR rate would historically have translated into higher yields on retail Certificates of Deposit (CDs). However, this relationship has broken down recently: banks have been reluctant to pass on higher rates as they seek to maximize profits, potentially helping lift financial earnings in the short-term. Therefore, investors looking to hold cash in their portfolios should consider moving from traditional CDs to more attractively yielding money market products, which are more closely tied to LIBOR. THE LIBOR SPIKE
3 MARKET BULLETIN MAY, 8 EXHIBIT : USD LIBOR and U.S National -month CD rate % 8% 7% 6% 5% % % % % USD LIBOR -month CD rate % '98 ' ' ' '6 '8 ' ' ' '6 '8 Source: ICE, Federal Reserve, FDIC, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of April, 8. From July to present, certificate of deposit (CD) rates are calculated from FDIC using a simple average of rates paid on jumbo and non-jumbo deposits by all insured depository institutions and branches. Prior to July, -month CD rates are taken from the Federal Reserve Board Secondary Market Rate; a discontinued series found on the H.5 Selected Interest Rates table. Data are as of April, 8.. Overseas investors may not anchor U.S. Treasury yields For much of the last decade, the U.S. -year Treasury bond has been seen as a relatively high yielding government debt instrument. With a yield of.%, it yields more than 9% of other developed market government bonds. In a world starved of yield, many international investors have come to the U.S. seeking a decent return for their fixed income portfolios with relatively little risk. This international demand has put downward pressure on long-dated U.S. Treasury yields. This is one of the reasons why the yield curve has flattened. However, any international investor buying a U.S. Treasury bond for access to stable, dependable yield will likely hedge their currency exposure in order to dampen the day-to-day currency volatility that could damage risk-adjusted returns. Hedging costs are calculated as the difference between the U.S. LIBOR rate and the LIBOR rate in a different region. As shown in Exhibit, the gap between U.S. LIBOR and its international equivalents is widening, driving up the cost of hedging for international investors. As of April 8, for a European investor to hedge their currency exposure they would have to deposit euro at a Euro LIBOR rate of -.% and then borrow at the U.S. dollar rate of.%. The difference between these two rates is.7%, which is the investor s currency hedging costs for the year. Rising hedging costs are a tough obstacle for international investors to overcome, and they reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. Treasury market. The flow of capital from overseas may therefore begin to reverse. This should result in falling bond prices and higher yields, particularly towards the back end of the curve. EXHIBIT : Short-term borrowing rates, LIBOR -month LIBOR yield, % 8 USD LIBOR GBP LIBOR EUR LIBOR - '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 ' ' ' ' ' '5 '6 '7 Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, ICE, Tullet Prebon, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of April, 8.. Global bonds look more attractive While a widening hedging cost spread may be an obstacle for international investors accessing U.S. fixed income, it can help U.S. investor portfolios. Any U.S. investor looking to hedge their global fixed income currency exposure will benefit from that currency hedge. J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT
4 MARKET BULLETIN MAY, 8 As shown in Exhibit, for example, the German - year Bund has a yield of just.6% when held in euros. If a U.S. investor were to buy the bond and hedge their currency exposure, however, they would receive.7% from the hedge alone, resulting in an effective yield of.%. This is higher than the U.S. -year treasury yield, making international fixed income markets much more attractive for U.S. dollar-based investors. EXHIBIT : GLOBAL BOND YIELDS & HEDGING RETURN FOR A U.S. INVESTOR % Total yield 5 Hedge currency yield.5. Domestic currency yield Global bonds now look more attractive for U.S. investors, as rising hedging costs help boost hedged international yields. The rise in U.S. LIBOR does not likely point to an unwillingness among banks to lend to each other. Still, the rise should be monitored, as it calls for an adjustment in how investors should utilize cash vehicles and creates opportunity in global fixed income markets. Source: AFMA, Bloomberg, FactSet, ICE, Tullet Prebon, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Hedge calculation for Canada uses the Canadian Dealer Offered Rate (CDOR). Hedge calculation for Australia uses the -month bank bill swap rate (BBSW). Data are as of April, 8. Investment Implications The rise in LIBOR has been driven by technical factors, including Fed rate hikes, repatriation of overseas profits and increased debt issuance. This rise has implications for investor portfolios: CDs are no longer an optimal strategy for holding cash. Instead, investors should look to the money markets for products more closely tied to LIBOR for any short-term cash holdings. Long-dated U.S. yields could rise as international investors are pushed to return home due to rising hedging costs driven by rising U.S. LIBOR. THE LIBOR SPIKE
5 The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.] For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments andthe income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. This communication is issued by the following entities: in the United Kingdom by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in other European jurisdictions by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l.; in Hong Kong by JF Asset Management Limited, or JPMorgan Funds (Asia) Limited, or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Asia) Limited; in Singapore by JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No K), or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 55E); in Taiwan by JPMorgan Asset Management (Taiwan) Limited; in Japan by JPMorgan Asset Management (Japan) Limited which is a member of the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and the Japan Securities Dealers Association and is regulated by the Financial Services Agency (registration number Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. ); in Korea by JPMorgan Asset Management (Korea) Company Limited; in Australia to wholesale clients only as defined in section 76A and 76G of the Corporations Act (Cth) by JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN 5588) (AFSL 7699); in Brazil by Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.; in Canada for institutional clients use only by JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc., and in the United States by JPMorgan Distribution Services Inc. and J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc., both members of FINRA/SIPC.; and J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. Copyright 8 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. MI-MB_LIBOR 9ca8959
Market Bulletin. 4Q17 earnings update: Let s talk about taxes. January 31, In brief. Safety in earnings
Market Bulletin January 31, 2018 4Q17 earnings update: Let s talk about taxes In brief While higher volatility may be on the horizon, healthy earnings growth should prevent minor pullbacks from becoming
More informationMarket Bulletin. The real story behind wages. February 21, In brief. Wage growth worries
Market Bulletin February 21, 2018 The real story behind wages In brief Nominal wage growth has not accelerated as expected post-crisis, leaving observers concerned. Structural constraints and persistently
More informationSolving for Fixed Income
MARKET INSIGHTS Solving for Fixed Income Using Market Insights to achieve better outcomes Q4 2016 SINCE 2004, J.P. MORGAN HAS PRODUCED MARKET INSIGHTS TO HELP INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS UNDERSTAND AND MAKE THEIR
More informationMarket Bulletin. Trade, taxes and temporary distortions: growth after the second quarter surge. July 31, In brief. The second quarter surge
Market Bulletin July 31, 2018 Trade, taxes and temporary distortions: growth after the second quarter surge In brief The U.S. economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018. This figure was significantly
More informationMarket Bulletin. 1Q18 earnings update: A tailwind from taxes. April 27, In brief. Volatility shows up to the party
Market Bulletin April 27, 2018 1Q18 earnings update: A tailwind from taxes In brief Volatility returned in the first quarter of 2018 as markets struggled to find their footing amidst concerns of inflation,
More informationEARNINGS OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK. EXHIBIT 1: EUROPE EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS) BY SECTOR % change (y/y) Cons. Disc. Care
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin 28 February 2017 European equities: Q4 earnings review and outlook for 2017 IN BRIEF With 72% of companies having reported, we estimate that Q4 2016 earnings per share (EPS)
More informationUsing Market Insights to discuss Principles of successful long-term investing
Using Market Insights to discuss Principles of successful long-term investing Nandini Ramakrishnan Learning objectives Describe the principles of successful long-term investing Give examples of time tested
More informationChina s repo markets. Appendix B: New developments LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS
FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS China s repo markets Appendix B: New developments Since the first edition
More informationMarket Bulletin. 2Q18 earnings update: Tug of war. July 27, In brief. Politics vs. fundamentals
Market Bulletin July 27, 2018 2Q18 earnings update: Tug of war In brief 2018 has seen the stock market struggle to find direction, as political risks and robust earnings growth have offset one another,
More informationMarket Bulletin. July 30, Preparing for Liftoff: The impact of rate hikes on stock returns
July 30, 2014 Preparing for Liftoff: The impact of rate hikes on stock returns James C. Liu, CFA Global Market Strategist J.P. Morgan Funds Anthony M. Wile Global Research Analyst J.P. Morgan Funds Tai
More informationMarket Bulletin. Trade tensions: A fight on many fronts. June 22, In brief
Market Bulletin June 22, 2018 Trade tensions: A fight on many fronts In brief Trade related headlines have been overwhelming over the past few months. It is important for investors to separate tariffs
More informationChart 2: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Year-over-year % change, 3MMA. Chart 1: China Real GDP Growth 12% QoQ Annualized 70% 10% Infrastructure 50%
Chart 1: China Real GDP Growth 12% 1 YoY QoQ Annualized 8% 6% 4% 2% 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 Source: NBS, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Chart 2: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Year-over-year % change,
More informationMarket Bulletin. Chinese yuan: Walking on a tight rope. August 16, In brief
Market Bulletin August 16, 2016 Chinese yuan: Walking on a tight rope In brief Recent trends suggest the Chinese authorities are allowing the Chinese yuan to depreciate against a basket of currencies in
More informationMarket Bulletin. Chinese yuan: Walking on a tight rope. 16 August 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin 16 August 2016 Chinese yuan: Walking on a tight rope In brief Recent trends suggest the Chinese authorities are allowing the Chinese yuan to depreciate against a basket
More informationMarket Bulletin. 4Q15 earnings recap: The never-ending story of oil and the dollar. February 16, In brief. Earnings recap
Market Bulletin February 16, 2016 4Q15 earnings recap: The never-ending story of oil and the dollar In brief The 4Q15 earnings season has been disappointing, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to decline
More informationThe role of fixed income and the missing middle J.P. Morgan Asset Management
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION The role of fixed income and the missing middle J.P. Morgan Asset Management Sorca Kelly Scholte Managing Director
More informationMarket Bulletin. A fresh take on UK equities. November In brief HOW TO PROFIT FROM THE UK ECONOMIC RECOVERY? AUTHORS
Market Bulletin November A fresh take on UK equities In brief Domestic equities play a key role in most UK investors portfolios, accounting for of their holdings on average. The UK macro environment is
More informationPrinciples for successful long-term investing
MARKET INSIGHTS Principles for successful long-term investing Using Market Insights to achieve better client outcomes 2Q 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS WAS FOUNDED IN 2004 IN THE WAKE OF THE FALLOUT FROM THE TECH
More informationMoney market reform in China
FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Money market reform in China J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity About J.P. MORGAN GLOBAL LIQUIDITY
More informationUnderstanding Flex Dist Share Classes
Understanding Flex Dist Share Classes Inside Investments for Global Liquidity The Flex Dist share class is designed to operate in both positive and negative yield environments, enabling you to continue
More informationMarket Bulletin. Earnings will set you free. October 20, In brief. The benefits of breadth
Market Bulletin October 20, 2017 Earnings will set you free In brief Healthy gains in global equity markets this year have been driven by a rebound in earnings growth, with the breadth of profit growth
More informationMarket Bulletin. Australian Housing: What s new in macro-pru. May 5, 2017 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin May 5, 2017 Australian Housing: What s new in macro-pru In brief The acceleration in house prices, compared to the more modest growth in the broader economy, has ratcheted
More informationPrinciples for successful long-term investing
MARKET INSIGHTS Principles for successful long-term investing Using Market Insights to achieve better outcomes 2017 MARKET INSIGHTS WAS FOUNDED IN 2004 IN THE WAKE OF THE FALLOUT FROM THE TECH BUBBLE.
More informationMarket Bulletin. The wage puzzle. August 21, In brief. U.S. wages A failure to launch
Market Bulletin August 21, 2015 The wage puzzle In brief Structural, not cyclical, factors are largely responsible for the lack of wage growth in recent years. These factors such as the retirement of baby
More informationMarket Bulletin. China: Still sneezing hard. January 20, 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin January 20, 2016 China: Still sneezing hard In brief Slower 4Q15 GDP growth and soft December data add to concerns about China s economic health. On a more encouraging note,
More informationPrinciples for successful long-term investing
MARKET INSIGHTS Principles for successful long-term investing Using Market Insights to achieve better outcomes 4Q 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS WAS FOUNDED IN 2004 IN THE WAKE OF THE FALLOUT FROM THE TECH BUBBLE.
More informationMarket Bulletin. The UK economic and equity landscape post-brexit. September 2016 MARKET INSIGHTS. In Brief: BREXIT? WHAT BREXIT?
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin September 2016 The UK economic and equity landscape post-brexit In Brief: Despite the surprisingly strong bounce in UK economic data over the summer, we remain fairly downbeat
More informationMarket Bulletin. Asian equities: More room to run? March 1, 2018 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief GREAT PERFORMANCE LAST YEAR, BUT CAN ASIA DO BETTER?
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin March 1, 2018 Asian equities: More room to run? In brief Solid global economic and trade growth are crucial tailwinds supporting Asian equities. Valuations are in line with
More informationFocusing on hedge fund volatility
FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Focusing on hedge fund volatility Keeping alpha with the beta November 2016 IN BRIEF Our
More informationFrequently Asked Questions: European Money Market Fund Regulation
Frequently Asked Questions: European Money Market Fund Regulation J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity January 2018 WHAT IS THE IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE? The regulation provides for an 18-month implementation for
More informationMarket Bulletin. Here we go again: U.S.-China trade tensions. July 12, 2018 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin July 12, 2018 Here we go again: U.S.-China trade tensions In brief Continued escalation in the China-U.S. trade conflict has produced a good deal of investor anxiety. Markets
More informationFrequently Asked Questions: European Money Market Fund Regulations
Frequently Asked Questions: European Money Market Fund Regulations J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity September TIMELINE What is the implementation timeline? There are just 3 months until the new regulations
More informationNotes on the Week Ahead
Notes on the Week Ahead January 28, 2019 Dr. David P. Kelly, CFA Chief Global Strategist Labeling the Boxes With age comes wisdom and one bit of wisdom my wife and I have acquired over the years is that,
More informationMarket Bulletin. Investors eye the negotiating table: Rebalancing China-U.S. trade and markets. May 10, 2018 MARKET INSIGHTS.
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin May 10, 2018 Investors eye the negotiating table: Rebalancing China-U.S. trade and markets In brief Trade tensions continue to rise between China and the U.S. Little progress
More informationNot drowning but waving? Summary of findings
Not drowning but waving? Summary of findings UK April 2013 IN BRIEF n The purchasing of Gilts through the Bank of England s Quantitative Easing programme has pushed yields to an even lower level than justified
More informationWe wish you a prosperous 2016, and may a high Sharpe ratio be with you!
The Year Ahead 2016 Monitor these key factors to guide investment decision making in 2016 2016: The highs and lows of the global investment landscape The lows Global growth Economic growth is expected
More informationMarket Bulletin. A brighter outlook for December 18, In brief. Sticking to the dots
Market Bulletin December 18, 2015 A brighter outlook for 2016 In brief 2015 has been a year of waiting, worrying and sideways markets. As we enter 2016, some of the waiting is over and some of the worries
More informationSustainable Investing
FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Sustainable Investing Investment Perspective on Climate Risk February 2017 Clients entrust
More informationEmerging market equities: Bounce or breakout?
FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Emerging market equities: Bounce or breakout? Emerging Market Strategy 2Q 216 IN BRIEF The
More informationMarket Bulletin November 11, 2014
Market Bulletin November 11, 2014 AUTHORS Stephanie Flanders Chief Market Strategist for the UK & Europe Alex Dryden Market Analyst Tai Hui Chief Market Strategist Asia Should investors fear a rising dollar?
More informationMarket Bulletin. Shedding light on trade turmoil. March 12, In brief. 1. Why does trade matter?
Market Bulletin March 12, 2018 Shedding light on trade turmoil In brief Over the past week financial markets have reacted negatively to the President s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, mainly
More information2011 SECURITIES LENDING OUTLOOK
2011 SECURITIES LENDING OUTLOOK February 8, 2011 Host Paul Wilson International Head of Client Management and Sales, Financing and Markets Products, J.P. Morgan Featured Guest Speaker David Mackie Head
More informationMarket Bulletin. International equities: Tourist trap or hidden gem? August 23, In brief. U.S. portfolios should always travel overseas
Market Bulletin August 23, 2017 International equities: Tourist trap or hidden gem? In brief International equities should always be a key component of investors portfolios, as they broaden the opportunity
More informationQuarterly Perspectives Europe 4Q 2017
Quarterly Perspectives Europe Q 7 J.P. Morgan Asset Management is pleased to present the latest edition of Quarterly Perspectives. This piece explores key themes from our Guide to the Markets, providing
More informationAustralian capital is it really safer at home?
HALF IMAGE PLACEMENT HOLDER (HORIZONTAL) Resize image to cover grey box Australian capital is it really safer at home? November 2015 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION Contents 8:28
More informationPrinciples for successful long-term investing
MARKET INSIGHTS RETIRENT INSIGHTS Principles for successful long-term investing Using Insights to achieve better client outcomes U.S. 2018 THE KEY TO SUCCESSFUL INVESTING ISN T PREDICTING THE FUTURE, IT
More informationMarket Bulletin. Oil plunges to $35 as OPEC fails to shift its course. December 18, 2015 MARKET INSIGHTS. In brief
MARKET INSIGHTS Market Bulletin December 18, 2015 Oil plunges to $35 as OPEC fails to shift its course In brief Oil prices reached fresh multi-year lows this week as domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate
More informationMarket Bulletin. 4Q16 earnings update: Follow the earnings. February 3, In brief. From valuations to earnings
Market Bulletin February 3, 2017 4Q16 earnings update: Follow the earnings In brief The earnings recession is behind us, and expectations are for robust yearover-year operating earnings growth in 4Q16.
More informationMarket Bulletin. Oil plunges to $35 as OPEC fails to shift its course. 18 December In brief
Market Bulletin 18 December 2015 Oil plunges to $35 as OPEC fails to shift its course In brief Oil prices reached fresh multi-year lows this week as domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
More informationMonthly Outlook. June Summary
Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the
More informationGlobal Bond Outlook. Full circle, but which direction? December 2011 IN BRIEF
INSIGHTS Global Bond Outlook Full circle, but which direction? December 211 PLEASE VISIT jpmorgan.com/institutional for access to all of our Insights publications. IN BRIEF Low levels of economic growth
More informationMarket Bulletin. Get invested, stay invested: Preparing for market volatility. January 27, In brief. A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor
Market Bulletin January 27, 207 Get invested, stay invested: Preparing for market volatility In brief Though it is impossible to predict the future, expecting volatility in the coming years is a safe bet.
More informationQuarterly Perspectives UK Q1 2016
Quarterly Perspectives UK Q1 216 J.P. Morgan Asset Management is pleased to present the latest edition of Quarterly Perspectives. This piece explores key themes from our Guide to the Markets, providing
More informationQuarterly Perspectives Europe 2Q 2018
Quarterly Perspectives Europe 2Q 2018 J.P. Morgan Asset Management is pleased to present the latest edition of Quarterly Perspectives. This piece explores key themes from our Guide to the Markets, providing
More informationMarket Bulletin. A case for Europe. February In brief
Market Bulletin February 216 A case for Europe In brief Market confidence has been badly hurt in the opening weeks of the year as investors worry about the possibility of a global recession. We believe
More informationJ.P. Morgan Global Liquidity
J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION 2 Introducing J.P.Morgan Global Liquidity YOUR PARTNER: One of the world s largest liquidity
More informationBeyond the usual suspects: Diversified sources of income
J.P. Morgan Asset Management Research Summit 2011 Passport to opportunity Beyond the usual suspects: Diversified sources of income Mariana Connolly, CFA Client Portfolio Manager, U.S. Equity Group Anne
More informationTaking measure of the cycle
PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS Taking measure of the cycle Emerging markets strategy November 2017 IN BRIEF After 20 months of strong absolute and relative performance, we believe emerging market (EM) equities are
More informationInvesco Fixed Income Investment Insights What may LIBOR s phase-out mean for investors?
Invesco Fixed Income Investment Insights What may LIBOR s phase-out mean for investors? October 2018 Key takeaways With the phasing out of the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), a new, more transparent
More informationFX Swaps and Forwards
Dollar Funding of Second-to-Last Resort September 218 Zach Pandl Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212-92-5699 zach.pandl@gs.com Co-Head of Global FX, Rates and EM Strategy Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business
More informationBONDS MAY FEEL CONTINUED PRESSURE
LPL RESEARCH B O N D MARKET PERSPECTIVES July 17 2018 BONDS MAY FEEL CONTINUED PRESSURE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Colin Allen, CFA Assistant Vice President, LPL Financial KEY
More informationMonthly Market Review Asia Pacific January 2017
Monthly Market Review Asia Pacific January 2017 Global economy: The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25bps, to 0.5%-0.75%, in its December FOMC meeting, as expected. Its updated projection expects
More informationMarket Bulletin. The investment implications of tax reform. December 20, In brief
Market Bulletin December 20, 2017 The investment implications of tax reform In brief The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should soon be signed into law. While much of the motivation for U.S. tax reform has
More informationThe infrastructure moment
The infrastructure moment Core infrastructure s growing role in institutional portfolios January 2017 IN BRIEF As a new asset class, infrastructure has proved itself over the last decade, establishing
More informationEQUITY RESEARCH. OSFI releases draft of revisions to B-20 mortgage guidelines. For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 3.
EQUITY RESEARCH July 7, 2017 Canadian Mortgage Industry OSFI releases draft of revisions to B-20 mortgage guidelines RBC Global Equity Team Click here for contributing analysts' contact information OSFI
More informationJ.P. Morgan Asset Management Currency-hedged share classes: A guide for investors
J.P. Morgan Asset Management Currency-hedged share classes: A guide for investors January 2018 WHY HEDGE CURRENCIES? As an investor, exchange rates can have a significant impact on your returns - for better
More informationBLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX 2018 REBALANCE
BLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX 2018 REBALANCE 2018 REBALANCE HIGHLIGHTS Euro maintains largest weight 2018 BBDXY WEIGHTS Euro Canadian dollar largest percentage weight decrease Swiss franc has largest percentage
More informationMarket Bulletin. Brexit: What investors should consider. 2 June In brief BRITAIN S PLACE IN THE EU AND THE PRE-REFERENDUM LANDSCAPE AUTHOR
Market Bulletin 2 June 2016 Brexit: What investors should consider In brief Though we anticipate a vote in favour of remaining in the European Union (EU), a leave vote in the coming UK referendum is a
More informationMonetary and Economic Department Triennial and semiannual surveys on positions in global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets at end-june 2007
Monetary and Economic Department Triennial and semiannual surveys on positions in global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets at end-e 27 November 27 Queries concerning this release should be addressed
More informationPresentation Global private equity trends
Presentation Global private equity trends Alex Scott Partner Pantheon Ventures Global Private Equity Trends Alex Scott July 2018 Hitting the headlines IPOS ARE DWINDLING, SO IS THE NUMBER OF PUBLIC COMPANIES
More informationVIX to Fall; Stocks to Rise; Small to Outperform
RBC Capital Markets, LLC October 14, 2014 VIX to Fall; Stocks to Rise; Small to Outperform Market Delivers Above-Average Returns Following Volatility Spikes Investor concerns regarding global growth have
More informationMonthly Bulletin May J.P. Morgan Luxembourg based fund ranges
Monthly Bulletin May 2018 J.P. Morgan Luxembourg based fund ranges Performance summary for Equity Fund Range EQUITY US A (dist) - USD 2.1-5.3 14.9 33.1 79.9 14.6 15.7-1.0 8.2 25.2 JPM America Equity A
More informationUS Economics. RBC Capital Markets, LLC Jacob Oubina Director, Senior US Economist (212) ; ECONOMICS I RESEARCH
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH US Economics October 2015, LLC Jacob Oubina Director, Senior US Economist (212) 618-7795; jacob.oubina@rbccm.com For Required Conflicts Disclosures, please see the back of this document.
More informationTREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS July September 2010 During the third quarter of 2010, the U.S. dollar s trade-weighted exchange value declined 6.7 percent, as measured by the Federal
More informationMonthly Market Review
Monthly Market Review Global economy: The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged in April, as expected. However, it did not provide a clear direction on the timing of the next hike. While
More informationBond Opportunities in 2009
2008: a year in review for credit and inflation linked-bonds The year was characterised by the financial and liquidity crisis, deleveraging of the economy, worldwide economic downturn and very high levels
More informationHoning in on China: more about companies, less about the economy
Emerging Markets & Asia Pacific (EMAP) Equities December 218 AUTHORS Shumin Huang Head of Research for Greater China Equities I N BRIEF China s economic revolution continues to be one of the defining stories
More informationInternational Finance multiple-choice questions
International Finance multiple-choice questions 1. Spears Co. will receive SF1,000,000 in 30 days. Use the following information to determine the total dollar amount received (after accounting for the
More informationJ.P. Morgan Global Liquidity Investment PeerView SM 2013
$ $ J.P. Morgan Asset Management J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity Investment PeerView SM 2013 FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION 2 J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity
More informationEuropean bank performance 10 years after the crisis
European bank performance 1 years after the crisis London, European banks have become more profitable, but revenue gap to US peers widened further in last few years Net income USD / EUR bn, up to Q4 17
More informationJPMorgan Diversified Return International Currency Hedged ETF Schedule of Portfolio Investments as of July 31, (Unaudited)
Schedule of Portfolio Investments as of July 31, 2017 (Unaudited) THE UNAUDITED CERTIFIED MUTUAL FUNDS HOLDINGS LIST ( the List ) IS TO BE USED FOR REPORTING PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED FOR
More informationFlash Note US ten-year Treasury update
FLASH NOTE Flash Note US ten-year Treasury update Target hit but beware a further rise! Pictet Wealth Management - Asset Allocation & Macro Research 1 May 2018 The ten-year Treasury yield broke through
More informationUS Rates Outlook: The Fed s Third Mandate
US Rates Outlook: The Fed s Third Mandate April 2016 Gennadiy Goldberg US Rates Strategist gennadiy.goldberg@tdsecurities.com 1 (212) 827-7180 Lopsided employment picture rapidly improving 2 Wage inflation:
More informationTempleton Global Macro. Franklin Templeton Investment Funds Templeton Global Bond Fund - A (Mdis) USD. Data as of March 31, 2018
Templeton Global Macro Data as of March 31, 2018 Franklin Templeton Investment Funds - A (Mdis) USD Table of Contents Summary...3 Historical Performance...4 Calendar Year Returns...5 Performance Risk Statistics...
More informationCLIENT USE ONLY - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC.
LIBOR Transition 2018 Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. Please note that these materials are for informational purposes only and do not provide any recommendation to buy or
More informationBank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Turnover for April, 2010 and Amounts
Bank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Turnover for April, 2010 and Amounts Outstanding as at June 30, 2010 December 20, 2010 Table
More informationQuarterly Market Review
Quarterly Market Review THEMES FOR THE QUARTER Emerging Markets the Standout in Mixed Q1 Global Equity Returns Developed Markets Positive; Australia and NZ Negative Value Premium Positive in Emerging Markets;
More informationTempleton Global Macro Group. Franklin Templeton Investment Funds Templeton Global Bond Fund - I (acc) USD. Data as of 28 February 2019
Templeton Global Macro Group Data as of 28 February 2019 Franklin Templeton Investment Funds - I (acc) USD Table of Contents Summary...3 What are the Key Risks?...4 Discrete Performance... 5 Historical
More informationWhat Does a Yield Curve Inversion Mean for Investors?
Professional Use RESEARCH MATTERS Wes Crill, PhD Vice President Dimensional Fund Advisors August 2018 What Does a Yield Curve Inversion Mean for Investors? Historically, the US Treasury yield curve has
More informationGlobal Fixed Income Weekly
Global Fixed Income Weekly Executive Summary US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 103,000 in March, falling short of consensus expectations by 82,000; the undershoot is likely due to weather effects and
More informationU.S. Treasury Market
U.S. Treasury Market David Beker Presentation prepared by Joseph Shatz and Catherina Wijaya Refer to important disclosures on page 29 Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered
More informationUBS Investor Day 2004 Fixed Income, Rates & Currencies. Michael Hutchins, Global Head of FIRC
UBS Investor Day 24 Fixed Income, Rates & Currencies Michael Hutchins, Global Head of FIRC Diversified group of businesses Fixed Income, Rates & Currencies Fixed Income Rates FX, Cash & Collateral Trading
More informationAppendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
Presentation Materials (586 KB PDF) Pages 78 to 87 of Transcript Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Page 1 Title: Current Deposit Rates and Rates Implied by Traded Forward Rate Agreements Series: U.S.
More informationThemes in bond investing June 2009
For professional investors only Not for public distribution May 2011 Themes in bond investing June 2009 China: an update on the market and government policy Introduction After disappointing performance
More informationPerspectives July. Liability-Driven Perspectives. A Tale of Two Recessions. Liabilities Do Not Have Downgrade Risk, Bonds Do
PGIM FIXED INCOME Perspectives July 2015 Liability-Driven Perspectives A Tale of Two Recessions The Effect of Credit Migration on Liability-Driven Investment Portfolios Tom McCartan Vice President, Liability-Driven
More informationAlternative Reference Rate for. Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) - Consultation with. Industry Stakeholders. Treasury Markets Association
Alternative Reference Rate for Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) - Consultation with Industry Stakeholders Treasury Markets Association April 2019 About this document 1. This paper is published
More informationMarket Outlook November 2014 More Economic Divergences, More Volatility
2 Market Outlook November 2014 More Economic Divergences, More Volatility Equities Markets Feature As global markets hover between price peaks and volatility lows, global investors are dealing with a cacophony
More informationAddressing the benchmarking challenge
FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Addressing the benchmarking challenge Private equity June 2018 PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS IN BRIEF
More informationAudited Annual Report 30 June 2018
Audited Annual Report 30 June 2018 Contents Page Statement of Responsibilities of the Manager and the Trustee 1 Report of the Trustee to the Unitholders 2 Independent Auditor s Report to the Unitholders
More informationWeekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 GBP/USD 03 USD/JPY 04 Weekly FX Focus 02 NZD/USD
More information