ABI-CERVED OUTLOOK ON BAD LOANS TO BUSINESSES
|
|
- Randall Fitzgerald
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 1/2 3,6k k 1,5k ABI-CERVED OUTLOOK ON BAD LOANS TO BUSINESSES Estimates and forecasts of the rates of new bad loans owed by non-financial companies, with breakdowns DECEMBER 2015 #2 (2 a+2b) 12,5% 75,5%
2 2 NEW BAD LOAN RATE FALLING NOTICEABLY IN ALL SECTORS SUMMARY For industrial sector, companies and SMEs, rate is expected below pre-crisis level in 2017 The influx of bad loans, as a percentage of Italian banks total lending stock, will go down substantially over the next few months, but will remain well above pre-recession levels. This is, in brief, the scenario captured in the new Outlook on bad loans to businesses, which broadly confirms the figures presented in the April edition of the Outlook for 2015 and 2016, and introduces forecasts for Assuming a gradual improvement in the macroeconomic scenario, the rate of new bad loans is forecast to drop from a peak of 3.9% reached in June 2015 to 2.3% by the end of 2017; the latter would be 0.6 percentage points above the rate. The historical series of new bad loan rates has been reconstructed with a breakdown category and forecasts have also been generated for future rates, thanks to a joint project between the Italian Banking Association (ABI) and Cerved. Our reconstruction and forecasts indicate improvements in all company size categories starting in 2015, with more marked decreases in the new bad loan rate among businesses, while the gap between r and er companies is shrinking. It is estimated that in 2015, the new bad loan rate will decrease in all sectors of the Italian economy except for the construction sector, where a significant drop is not expected until In the industrial sector, the rate is expected to fall below the pre-crisis level in 2017 among both SMEs and companies. A noticeable improvement is also projected to take place in the service sector, where however new bad loan rates will probably remain above levels over the entire forecasting period. Even from a geographical point of view, improvements are expected across the board in 2015, with the most evident decreases in the South and North-West of Italy. New bad loans are forecast to go down further in all areas of the Boot over the next two years, and this should be accompanied by a gradual reduction in the gaps between regions, which widened significantly during the crisis years.
3 3 Estimates and forecasts of new bad loans, 4.1% 3.8% annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to non-financial companies, broken down category all companies 1.1% 0.7% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 1.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.8% and forecasts Despite these encouraging prospects in terms of the influx of new bad loans, the huge pile of non-performing loans that the country s banks accumulated during the recession years is a subject of particular attention. The non-performing loan stock has continued to mount significantly over the course of 2015: according to Bank of Italy figures up to September, gross bad loans held by Italian banks are now above the 200 billion mark, which is about 10% of the total loan amount disbursed. About 143 billion of those bad loans were lent to non-financial companies. Unless measures are taken to help banks unload a significant portion of this bad loan stock, it is bound to keep on rising for at least the next few months.
4 4 ITALIAN BUSINESSES BAD LOANS OWED TO BANKS In 2015, the stock of gross bad loans accumulated by Italian banks rose rapidly despite an improving economic situation. According to the latest Bank of Italy data (up to September 2015), the gross bad loan stock has reached a record-high of 200 billion, more than 10% of all loans to customers. The bad loan amount is 13% higher than it was in and almost five times greater than seven years ago 1 (it was 43 billion in September ). Over 70% of those bad loans ( billion) were loans disbursed to non-financial companies. Among these, the bad loan stock has grown 13.3% year-on-year. Gross non-performing loans of Italian banks in billion euros bn bn others non-financial companies Source: ABI-Cerved illustration of Bank of Italy data dec 07 dec 08 dec 09 dec 10 dec 11 dec 12 dec 13 dec 14 dec 15 The recent influx of new bad loans, although it has slowed down over the course of this year, suggests that the bad loan stock will continue growing over the next few months unless the Italian banks ability to unload non-performing loans in their portfolios, whether by selling the assets or by resolving insolvencies more quickly 2, were to improve significantly. In fact, new bad loans as a percentage of total loans to non-financial companies stopped going up in the second quarter of the year. However, the rate is still well above the historical average, still at a record-high 3.9% of the number of loans; if the calculation is based on loan amounts, then the rate was an even higher 4.4% as of June 2015 (although this is below the historical peak of 4.8% recorded at the end of ). 1. Unlike September data, the numbers reported at the end of did not include data from Cassa Depositi e Prestiti 2. This summer, the Italian Parliament passed a package of measures (in Law no. 132/2015) aiming to stimulate faster disposal of bad loans from banks accounts. Banks could unload their bad loans more rapidly if a Bad Bank is established or if the non-performing loan market were to be backed by government guarantees, something the current administration has indeed been considering recently.
5 5 New bad loan rates among non-financial company borrowers annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans by number of loans by loan amount Source: ABI-Cerved illustration of Bank of Italy data q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q1 q3 q Official Bank of Italy data provide details of new bad loan rates by geographical area, by sector of business and by the amount borrowed, but do not show statistics broken down by company size category. ABI and Cerved have estimated these figures based on individual credit risk scores that Cerved has calculated for Italian companies (see the text box on the next page for details). Our estimates, presented for the first time in the last edition of this Outlook, have now been updated with forecasts to The ABI-Cerved models project that the new bad loan rate will be 3.6% at the end of 2015, two-tenths of a percent lower than last year. The breakdown category shows that the r the business, the lower the default risk on average. However, improvements are foreseen in all size categories from to The biggest decrease is seen among businesses, from 4.1% at the end of to 3.8% at the end of 2015, while the rate is expected to go down by 0.2 percentage points in the other size categories. The gap between businesses and companies, while getting a tenth of a point narrower this year, is still noticeable and much wider than prior to the economic crisis: in, there was a 1.1 percentage point gap in new bad loan rates between -businesses and companies, whereas the projected 2015 gap is 2.1 points. Estimated new bad loans, annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to non-financial companies, broken down by company size category all companies 1.1% 0.7% 4.1% 3.3% 2.7% 3.8% 3.1% 1.7%
6 6 THE ABI-CERVED PROJECT TO ESTIMATE DEFAULT RATES BY BUSINESS SIZE Cerved and the Italian Banking Association (ABI) have started a joint project to estimate and forecast default rates by business size category, in order to help broaden the set of information available to analysts and operators in the field. The project s goal is to estimate new bad loan rates, dating back to 1990, for each macro-sector of the economy, each broad geographical area of the country, and each business size category, resulting in 64 data clusters; the subsequent goal is to analyse the resulting rate trends, in order to develop forecasts and simulations. Default rate estimates are obtained by using Cerved s CeBi-Score4 as a concise indicator of a business s financial risk, then transforming these scores into individual risk indicators or expected individual default rates (EIDR) and re-proportioning these EIDRs based on the historical data series published by the Bank of Italy. Equipped with an indicator on an individual company level that enables, on average, systemwide default rate dynamics to be replicated, we then have a potent way of estimating default rates for each business size cluster. Through such proportioning, the historical series of default rates since 1990 has been reconstructed for the 64 clusters covered in the project. For the purpose of this research project, Cerved and ABI have classified non-financial companies into four size categories, using the same criteria specified by the European Commission: CATEGORISATION OF ITALIAN BUSINESSES BY SIZE Micro-business Small business Mid-sized business Large business Employees < 10 < 50 < and and and or Revenue 2mn 10mn 50mn > 50mn or or or and Assets 2mnl 10mn 43mn > 43mn The default rates obtained feed into a risk assessment model for business loans, where the degree of detail is a function of the intersection between levels of detail by sector, geographical area and size.
7 7 SECTOR TRENDS The prolonged economic crisis that has plagued Italy has had negative repercussions right across the board, but the extent of the impact has varied in different areas of the economy. In terms of bad loans, Bank of Italy figures indicate that gaps have widened significantly in recent years, and estimates suggest this trend is not slowing in New bad loan rates by macro-sector 5.9% 5.9% annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to companies in each sector services construction industry agriculture 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0% 2.4% New bad loan rates in the industrial sector, 3.8% 3.5% annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of the total, broken down by company size category total industrial 2.2% 1.2% 0.8% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% 2.0% In 2015, a year on year comparison indicates that new bad loans are expected to come down considerably in the industrial sector (from 3.4% to 3%), to fall by two tenths of a percentage point in the tertiary sector (from 3.5% to 3.3%) and by one tenth in the agricultural sector (from to 2.4%). The deterioration in the construction industry is forecast to come to a halt in 2015, but the rate should remain at the record levels recorded last year (5.9%). In all areas the rate of new bad loans is forecast to remain well above pre-crisis levels, with the gap between sectors featuring greater or lesser risk profiles expanding from 3 tenths of a percentage point to 3.5 tenths. In industry, the rate of new bad loans to businesses, which had already come down in (from 4.1% in to 3.8%), is forecast to fall further in 2015, to 3.5%. For companies, the rate remained stable at the record level of 2.8% in and : it is expected to drop by three tenths of a percentage point in For mid-sized companies the slight improvement in (from 2.4% in to 2.3%) is expected to consolidate in 2015,
8 8 New bad loan rates in the construction sector, annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of the total, broken down by company size category 6.9% 6.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% 5.7% 5.8% total construction New bad loan rates in the service sector annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of the total, broken down by company size category total services 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 3.7% 3.5% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% with the rate of new bad loans forecast to close the year at 2%. For industrial companies, which suffered a less notable increase in bad loans during the crisis, the rate of new bad loans is forecast at for 2015, 0.6 percentage points above the level. Estimates for the rate of new bad loans in the construction industry represent the exception to the general rule that greater risk is associated with er companies. Indeed, the crisis swelled new bad loan rates for companies of all sizes, but the impact was worse for r companies, with the result that the rate of new bad loans was higher for mid-sized and companies than for companies and businesses. Estimates suggest a marked improvement for companies in 2015 (from 6.9% in to 6.4%), while the rate should improve by 1-2 tenths of a percentage point for SMEs (from 6.8% to 6.6% for mid-sized companies and from 6.3% to 6.2% for companies). The situation for businesses continues to deteriorate, with the rate of new bad loans forecast to reach 5.8% (from 5.7% in ). In the services sector, the rate of new bad loans is set to fall from 3.5% in to 3.3% in 2015, still more than double the level recorded in. A reduction of two tenths of a percentage point is expected across the board, with new bad loan rates set to come to 3.5% in 2015 for businesses, 2.7% for companies, 2.2% for mid-sized companies and for companies.
9 9 GEOGRAPHICAL TRENDS The extended crisis has exacerbated differences in the rate of new bad loans between different geographical areas: in, the gap between the riskiest area (Southern Italy) and the least risky (North-East) was 0.8 percentage points; by this gap had increased threefold estimates indicate that the gap should come down again: the situation is improving across the country, with the positive trends affecting the South (from 5.6% to 5.1%) and the North-West (from 3.4% to 3.1%), whereas the rate is forecast to drop by just one tenth of a percentage point in the Centre (from 4.1% to 4%) and the North-East (from 2.9% to 2.8%). In all areas the rate of new bad loans will still be more than double the level recorded in. New bad loan rates by geographical area annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to companies in each area 5.1% 5.6% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.1% South & Islands Centre North-East North-West 2.2% 2.9% 2.8% Statistics for businesses reflect the geographical trends described for all companies: 2015 is expected to witness an improvement in all areas, with the biggest gains in the South (-0.4 percentage points) and the North-West (-0.2 percentage points), compared to -0.1 percentage points in the Centre and the North-East SMEs based in Southern Italy were hit hardest by the crisis: for companies the rate of new bad loans went from 2.1% in to a peak of 5.3% in (from to 4.9% for mid-sized companies), but is forecast to come down significantly in 2015 Micro-businesses: new bad loan rates by geographical area annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to companies in each area South & Islands Centre North-East North-West 2.3% 5.2% 5.6% 4.2% 4.1% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
10 10 to 4.9% (4.4% for mid-sized companies). The rate of new bad loans to companies in 2015 is set to come down faster in the North-West (-0.3 percentage points) than in the Centre and North-East (-0.1 points). For SMEs the levels of risk in the South (4.9% for companies, 4.4% for mid-sized) and the Centre (3.7% and 3.4%) remain much higher than the estimated figures for the North West (2.6% and 2%) and the North-East (2.3% and ). Despite the trend reversal expected in 2015, the North/South divide remains significant among companies. In the South, the rate of new bad loans for companies was 3.8% in, a higher rate than for businesses in the North and companies in the Centre. The rate is forecast to improve significantly in 2015, to 3.3%. Based on estimates, companies in the North-West are set to overtake those in the North East to offer the lowest risk profile: indeed, the rate of new bad loans is set to drop from to 1.3%, while in the North-East it is forecast to fall from to. For companies in Central Italy, the rate is forecast at in 2015, slightly below the level. Small businesses: new bad loan rates by geographical area 5.3% 4.9% annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to companies in each area South & Islands Centre North-East North-West 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 3.8% 3.7% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% Medium-sized businesses: new bad loan rates by geographical area annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to companies in each area South & Islands Centre North-East North-West 0.9% 0.8% 4.9% 4.4% 3.5% 3.4% 2.3% 2.0%
11 11 Large businesses: new bad loan rates by geographical area 3.8% 3.3% annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to companies in each area 2.6% South & Islands Centre North-East North-West 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.3%
12 12 FORECASTS TO 2017 Based on the macroeconomic scenario outlined by ABI this autumn, growth in the Italian economy will firm up over the next two years, reaching a rate of in All components will contribute to the Italian economic recovery, with the partial exception of public sector consumption, which is expected to continue to slide until Expectations indicate growth of around 1% in household consumption, while exports and investments are forecast to track livelier trends. ABI and Cerved models indicated that, based on this scenario, the rate of new bad loans for non-financial companies is expected to fall sharply, from the 3.8% peak reached in to 2.3% in Despite this notable improvement, the rate is still forecast to remain above pre-crisis levels at the end of the period in question. Forecasts indicate that by 2017 the rate of new bad loans for companies will improve significantly from the peak (from to 0.8%), coming close to the 0.7% recorded in. New bad loans for companies of all sizes are also forecast to come down significantly, with the gap from best to worst set to shrink from 2.2 percentage points () to 1.7 (2017). Forecasts for new bad loan rates, estimates for the annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to non-financial companies, broken down by company size category all companies 3.8% 3.6% 3.1% 1.7% 3.1% 2.9% 1.2% 2.3% 0.8% and forecasts Forecasts for new bad loan rates by macro-sector 5.9% 5.9% estimated annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to companies in each sector 3.5% 3.3% 5.0% 4.1% services construction industry agriculture 3.4% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% and forecasts
13 13 Industrial sector: forecasts for new bad loan rates estimates for the annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans, broken down by company size category 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% total industrial 2.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% and forecasts For the industrial sector, the only size of company for which the rate of new bad loans will remain above levels is businesses (2.4% vs. 2.2%). For all other categories the rate will fall below pre-crisis levels: indeed, forecasts indicate that at the end of the period, the rate of new bad loans will come to 0.5% for companies (0.8% in ), 0.9% for mid-sized companies (1.2%) and 1.3% for companies (). In the construction sector, in spite of the steep reduction forecast between 2015 and 2017 (from 5.9% to 4.1%), the rate of new bad loans will remain three times higher than in. During 2016 and 2017 the improvement will continue to be driven by companies, which will once again become the least risky. Elsewhere, -sized companies are forecast to suffer a higher rate of new bad loans than companies, which in turn will remain riskier than businesses. Pre-crisis levels remain a distant shore for construction companies of all sizes. Construction sector: forecasts for new bad loan rates estimates for the annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans, broken down category total construction and forecasts
14 14 Service sector: forecasts for new bad loan rates estimates for the annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans, broken down by company size category 3.5% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% total services 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% and forecasts Forecasts for new bad loan rates by geographical area 5.1% estimated annual influx of bad loans expressed as a percentage of total loans to non-financial companies in each area South & Islands Centre North-East North-West 4.0% 3.1% 2.8% 4.3% 3.3% 2.4% 2.3% 3.6% 3.7% and forecasts In 2017, the rate of new bad loans in the services sector will come down to 2% (from 3.3% in 2015), remaining five tenths of a percentage point above levels. None of the categories will see the rate drop below pre-crisis levels, and the gap between businesses and companies will narrow significantly. From a geographical point of view, models indicate a widespread improvement across all parts of the country, with particularly positive trends for companies based in Southern Italy, which will nevertheless remain the riskiest, and for those in the North- West, for which the rate will come close to that recorded in the North-East, the safest area.
15 Interactive graphs are available at know.cerved.com
ABI CERVED OUTLOOK ON BAD LOANS TO BUSINESS
ABI CERVED OUTLOOK ON BAD LOANS TO BUSINESS ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS OF THE RATES OF NEW BAD LOANS OWED BY NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES, WITH BREAKDOWNS BY COMPANY SIZE DEFAULT RATES BY BUSINESS SIZE: THE ABI-CERVED
More informationFragmentation of the European financial market and the cost of bank financing
Fragmentation of the European financial market and the cost of bank financing Joaquín Maudos 1 European market fragmentation following the crisis has resulted in a widening of borrowing costs across Euro
More informationFISCAL COUNCIL OPINION ON THE SUMMER FORECAST 2018 OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE
FISCAL COUNCIL OPINION ON THE SUMMER FORECAST 2018 OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE September 2018 Contents Opinion... 3 Explanatory Report... 4 Opinion on the summer forecast 2018 of the Ministry of Finance...
More informationPostponed recovery. The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 INSEE CONJONCTURE
INSEE CONJONCTURE CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 Postponed recovery The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in Q2. While GDP rebounded in the United States and remained dynamic in the United
More informationFinland falling further behind euro area growth
BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,
More informationMONITOR OF BANKRUPTCIES, INSOLVENCY PROCEEDINGS AND BUSINESS CLOSURES
1. 1/2 3,6k 1k 1,5k MONITOR OF BANKRUPTCIES, INSOLVENCY PROCEEDINGS AND BUSINESS CLOSURES FEBRUARY 215 #22 (2 a+2b) 12,5% 75,5% 1.41421356237 February 215 / n 22 2 RECORD NUMBER OF BANKRUPTCIES - OVER
More information2.10 PROJECTIONS. Macroeconomic scenario for Italy (percentage changes on previous year, unless otherwise indicated)
. PROJECTIONS The projections for growth and inflation presented in this Economic Bulletin point to a strengthening of the economic recovery in Italy (Table ), based on the assumption that the weaker stimulus
More informationStrategic development of the banking sector
II BANKING SECTOR STABILITY AND RISKS Strategic development of the banking sector Estonia s financial system is predominantly bankbased owing to the smallness of the domestic market (see Figure 1). In
More informationBCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015
BCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and
More informationMarch 2014 Number 14. Monitor of Company Payments and Non-Payment Protests
March 2014 Number 14 Monitor of Company Payments and NonPayment Protests Protests, missed payments and arrears all going down Signals of improvement become clearer in the 4th quarter, as both nonpayment
More informationMEDIA RELEASE, Belgrade, March 15, Eurobank EFG Group financial results in 2009
MEDIA RELEASE, Belgrade, March 15, 2010 Eurobank EFG Group financial results in 2009 Group net income at 362m 1 in 2009 4Q09 net income at 82m or 25m after the one-off tax charge of 57m Resilient pre provision
More informationEXPERIAN BUSINESS DEBT INDEX (BDI) RESULTS FOR Q2 2017
EXPERIAN BUSINESS DEBT INDEX (BDI) RESULTS FOR Q2 2017 Business debt conditions still holding up despite recession The Experian Business Debt Index (BDI) rose moderately in the second quarter of 2017 compared
More informationOECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
More informationDefining prime, secondary and tertiary property
September 1 For professional investors and advisers only. Not suitable for retail clients Schroder Property How resilient is secondary property? Introduction Mark Callender, Head of Property Research The
More informationCorporate and Household Sectors in Austria: Subdued Growth of Indebtedness
Corporate and Household Sectors in Austria: Subdued Growth of Indebtedness Stabilization of Corporate Sector Risk Indicators The Austrian Economy Slows Down Against the background of the renewed recession
More informationThe main assumptions underlying the scenario are as follows (see the table):
. PROJECTIONS The projections for the Italian economy presented in this Economic Bulletin update those prepared as part of the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, which were based on information
More informationEconomic Projections :1
Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to
More informationMonetary and financial trends in the fourth quarter of 2014
Monetary and financial trends in the fourth quarter of 2014 Oil prices have significantly contracted in the third and fourth quarters of 2014, in an international economic environment marked by fragile
More informationThe Icelandic Economy
The Icelandic Economy Spring 2006 Macroeconomic forecast 2006 2010 Summary edition on April 25th 2006 M inistry of Finance The Icelandic Economy Spring 2006 25 April, 2006 This issue is published on the
More informationRic Battellino: Recent financial developments
Ric Battellino: Recent financial developments Address by Mr Ric Battellino, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Annual Stockbrokers Conference, Sydney, 26 May 2011. * * * Introduction
More informationDecember 2017 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR SPAIN 2018
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR SPAIN 2018 1 Contents RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE SPANISH ECONOMY... 4 FORECASTS 2017-2018... 6 MAIN RISKS... 7 CONCLUSIONS:... 8 ANNEXES:... 9 2 The following executive report deals
More informationInvestment assets totalled EUR billion at the end of 2016 return for the past 20 years 4.3 per cent in real terms
1/13 Investment assets totalled EUR 188.5 billion at the end of 2016 return for the past 20 years 4.3 per cent in real terms At the end of 2016, the total net amount of assets put into funds by earnings-related
More information1 World Economy. about 0.5% for the full year Its GDP in 2012 is forecast to grow by 2 3%.
1 World Economy The short-term outlook on the Finnish forest industry s exports markets is overshadowed by uncertainty and a new setback for growth in the world economy. GDP growth in the world economy
More informationQuarterly Spanish National Accounts. Base 2000
May 19 2010 Quarterly Spanish National Accounts. Base 2000 First quarter of 2010 Quarterly National Accounts (GDP) Latest data Year-on-year growth rate Quarter-on-quarter growth rate First quarter of 2010-1.3
More informationCOMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES. Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION
EN EN EN COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 30 January 2008 SEC(2008) 107 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION in accordance with the third paragraph of Article 5 of Council Regulation
More informationLETTER. economic COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 2015? JANUARY Canada. United States. Interest rates. Oil price. Canadian dollar.
economic LETTER JANUARY 215 COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 215? For six years now, that is, since the financial crisis that shook the world in 28, Canadian interest rates have stayed low. The key interest
More informationThe euro area bank lending survey. Fourth quarter of 2017
The euro area bank lending survey Fourth quarter of 217 January 218 Contents Introduction 2 1 Overview of the results 3 Box 1 General notes 4 2 Developments in credit standards, terms and conditions, and
More informationEconomic and monetary. developments. The results of the euro area bank lending survey for the second quarter of 2014
Economic and monetary Monetary and financial Box 2 The results of the euro area bank lending survey for the second quarter of 214 This box summarises the main results of the euro area bank lending survey
More informationThe Economic Situation of the European Union and the Outlook for
The Economic Situation of the European Union and the Outlook for 2001-2002 A Report by the EUROFRAME group of Research Institutes for the European Parliament The Institutes involved are Wifo in Austria,
More informationIn January 2017 UK Public sector net debt is 1,682.8 billion equivalent to 85.3% of GDP
UK National Debt Budget deficit annual borrowing... 2 UK net borrowing... 3 UK net borrowing as % of GDP... 3 Deficit down but debt up?... 4 Debt as % of GDP... 4 Recent history of UK National Debt...
More informationBUDGET Quebecers and Their Disposable Income. Greater Wealth
BUDGET 2012-2013 Quebecers and Their Disposable Income Greater Wealth for All Paper inside pages 100% This document is printed on completely recycled paper, made in Québec, contaning 100% post-consumer
More informationNote de conjuncture n
Note de conjuncture n 1-2005 Growth accelerates in 2004, expected to slow down in 2005 STATEC has just published Note de Conjoncture No. 1-2005. The first issue of the year serves as an "Annual Economic
More informationConsumer Vulnerability Index
www.quantec.co.za September 2011 Consumer Vulnerability Index CONSUMER VULNERABILITY IMPROVEMENT HALTED Quantec s Consumer Vulnerability Index (CVI) has shown consistent improvement since reaching dangerously
More informationREVIEW OF THE SURVEY OF THE FINANCIAL BEHAVIOUR OF HOUSEHOLDS SURVEY REVIEW OF THE BANK LENDING
REVIEW OF THE SURVEY OF THE FINANCIAL BEHAVIOUR 14 13 Q1 OF HOUSEHOLDS REVIEW OF THE BANK LENDING SURVEY ISSN 2335-841 (ONLINE) REVIEW OF THE BANK LENDING SURVEY 14/2 The lending survey of commercial banks
More informationEconomic Projections :3
Economic Projections 2018-2020 2018:3 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2018-2020 The Central Bank s latest projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to remain
More informationCOMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES. Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION
EN EN EN COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 19.02.2008 SEC(2008) 221 Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION in accordance with the third paragraph of Article 5 of Council Regulation (EC) No
More informationSurvey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area. April to September 2017
Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area April to September 217 November 217 Contents Introduction 2 1 Overview of the results 3 2 The financial situation of SMEs in the euro area
More informationPortuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2018
Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 2 nd quarter 218 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 26 th September of 218. Macroeconomic indicators and banking system data
More informationBUDGET. Budget Plan. November 1, 2001
2002-2003 BUDGET Budget Plan November 1, 2001 2002-2003 Budget The Budget Plan 2002-2003 Section 1 Economic Situation Since the Beginning of 2001 and Revised Outlook for 2001 and 2002 Section 2 The Government
More informationConsumer Debt and Money Report Q making business sense
Consumer Debt and Money Report Q3 2012 3 making business sense Executive summary & commentary The StepChange Debt Charity Consumer Debt and Money Report Q3 2012 expands on previous reports to build a nuanced
More informationThe euro area bank lending survey. Second quarter of 2018
The euro area bank lending survey Second quarter of 218 July 218 Contents Introduction 2 1 Overview of the results 3 Box 1 General notes 5 2 Developments in credit standards, terms and conditions, and
More informationSME Monitor Q aldermore.co.uk
SME Monitor Q1 2014 aldermore.co.uk aldermore.co.uk Contents Executive summary UK economic overview SME inflation index one year review SME cost inflation trends SME business confidence SME credit conditions
More informationImpact of US real estate crisis and financial market turbulence on the economy
Allianz Dresdner Economic Research Working Paper No.: 91, 18. September 2007 Authors: Thomas Hofmann, Dr. Rolf Schneider Impact of US real estate crisis and financial market turbulence on the economy What
More information7 January Affordability of housing
7 January 2015 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST FNB HOME LOANS 011-6490125 john.loos@fnb.co.za THEO SWANEPOEL: PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST
More informationPortugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012
Q1 2012 Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation
More informationSurvey on the access to finance of enterprises in the euro area. October 2014 to March 2015
Survey on the access to finance of enterprises in the euro area October 2014 to March 2015 June 2015 Contents 1 The financial situation of SMEs in the euro area 1 2 External sources of financing and needs
More informationAPPENDIX: Country analyses
APPENDIX: Country analyses Appendix A Germany: Low economic momentum The economic situation in Germany continues to be lackluster in 2014. Strong growth in the first quarter was followed by a decline
More informationProject Link Meeting, New York
Project Link Meeting, New York October 22-24, 2012 Country Report: Italy from Rapporto di Previsione Ottobre 2012 (Economic Outlook, October 2012); Prometeia Associazione per le Previsioni Econometriche
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report III/2018) Meeting with Analysts Karel Musil Prague, 3 August 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous
More informationPost-restructuring challenges for the Spanish banking sector
Post-restructuring challenges for the Spanish banking sector Joaquín Maudos 1 In the wake of the crisis, Spanish banks have become more solvent and returned to profitability. However, unique macroeconomic
More informationMacroeconomic Outlook: Implications for Agriculture. It has been 26 years since we have experienced a significant recession
Macroeconomic Outlook: Implications for Agriculture John B. Penson, Jr. Regents Professor and Stiles Professor of Agriculture Texas A&M University Our Recession History September 1902 August1904 23 May
More informationPublic sector pay: still time for restraint?
Public sector pay: still time for restraint? IFS Briefing Note BN216 Jonathan Cribb Public sector pay: still time for restraint? Jonathan Cribb Copy-edited by Judith Payne Published by The Institute for
More informationOur expanded China Momentum Indicator shows growth rebounding for now
China Our expanded China Momentum Indicator shows growth rebounding for now 25 July 2017 Jess Baker We have long been sceptical of official Chinese GDP statistics. To gain a better insight into economic
More informationThe main assumptions underlying the scenario are as follows (see the table):
. PROJECTIONS The projections for the Italian economy presented in this Economic Bulletin update those prepared for December s Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections to take account of subsequent developments.
More informationCOMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT. Analysis of the Draft Budgetary Plan of Latvia. Accompanying the document COMMISSION OPINION
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 21.11.2018 SWD(2018) 522 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Analysis of the Draft Budgetary Plan of Latvia Accompanying the document COMMISSION OPINION on the Draft Budgetary
More informationEFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2018 and Winter 2017/18
EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2018 and 2019 Winter 2017/18 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationIn 2011, economic activity remained sustained in most Franc Zone countries, in line with the strong growth (5.2%)
* In 011, economic activity remained sustained in most Franc Zone countries, in line with the strong growth (5.%) seen in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Franc Zone countries benefited in particular from continued
More informationCyprus. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Renewed external funding to support growth, but is a worry Published in collaboration with Highlights The ending of capital controls and the approval
More informationMacroeconomic overview
Macroeconomic overview APRIL 2009 Analyst: Ruta Arumäe, SEB Estonia Phone: +372 665 5578 E-mail: ruta.arumae@seb.ee KEY ECONOMIC NEWS Industrial production 1Q -26% Retail sales 1Q -14.6%, export ca -27%
More informationLabour. Overview Latin America and the Caribbean. Executive Summary. ILO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean
2017 Labour Overview Latin America and the Caribbean Executive Summary ILO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean Executive Summary ILO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Modest
More informationThe Icelandic Economy
The Icelandic Economy Summer 26 Revised macroeconomic forecast 26-28 M inistry of Finance Contents Main conclusions...3 Summary of the forecast...3 Developments in 26...3 Economic prospects for 27...5
More informationEconomic Projections for
Economic Projections for 2015-2017 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:3, pp. 86-91 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2015-2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic projections
More informationTo understand where the U.S. Economy is going, we need to understand where we have been
To understand where the U.S. Economy is going, we need to understand where we have been From 2008:1-2009:2, the worst recession since Great Depression, with a slow recovery from 2009:3-2013:1. Historical
More informationAnalysis of the first phase of the Funding for Growth Scheme
Analysis of the first phase of the Funding for Growth Scheme Summary The Magyar Nemzeti Bank announced the Funding for Growth Scheme (FGS) in April 2013. The first two pillars of the three-pillar Scheme
More informationWorld trade rises 5.3% in Q1 2010
June 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS World trade rises 5.3% in Q1 2010 1 Highlights 2 The Canadian economy 2 The U.S. economy 3 Oil prices tumble after US jobs report 4 Flight to quality hits Canadian dollar 4
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 16 th October 2018 Euro-zone competitiveness imbalances In the run up to the global financial crisis differing competitiveness levels across the euro-zone contributed
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Third Meeting April 16, 2016 IMFC Statement by Guy Ryder Director-General International Labour Organization Urgent Action Needed to Break Out of Slow
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationBANK OF FINLAND ARTICLES ON THE ECONOMY
BANK OF FINLAND ARTICLES ON THE ECONOMY Table of Contents Finland struggling to defend its market share on rapidly expanding markets 3 Finland struggling to defend its market share on rapidly expanding
More informationBusiness in Britain. A survey of opinions and trends 48th edition September For your next step
Business in Britain A survey of opinions and trends 48th edition September 16 For your next step BUSINESS IN BRITAIN REPORT OUR CONTRIBUTORS CONTENTS 3 4 Hann-Ju Ho Senior Economist Economic Research Lloyds
More informationNordic Companies in China less optimistic - But they continue to expand their presence
Nordic Companies in China less optimistic - But they continue to expand their presence THE SEB CHINA FINANCIAL INDEX AT 63.4, down from 70 in March. All indicators are falling in the September survey.
More informationStructural Changes in the Maltese Economy
Structural Changes in the Maltese Economy Dr. Aaron George Grech Modelling and Research Department, Central Bank of Malta, Castille Place, Valletta, Malta Email: grechga@centralbankmalta.org Doi:10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n5p423
More informationResearch Report on Belarus
Research Report on Belarus 18 January 219 Responsible Expert: Vladimir Gorchakov Rating Associate For further information contact: Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH Walter-Kolb-Strasse 9-11, 694 Frankfurt
More informationAntonio Fazio: Overview of global economic and financial developments in first half 2004
Antonio Fazio: Overview of global economic and financial developments in first half 2004 Address by Mr Antonio Fazio, Governor of the Bank of Italy, to the ACRI (Association of Italian Savings Banks),
More informationViet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20
Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and
More informationLETTER. economic. Explaining price variances between Canada and the United States MARCH bdc.ca
economic LETTER MARCH 212 Explaining price variances between Canada and the United States With an exchange rate at par with the U.S. dollar, it s easy for Canadian consumers to compare prices for similar
More informationSURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA APRIL TO SEPTEMBER 2012
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA APRIL TO SEPTEMBER 2012 NOVEMBER 2012 European Central Bank, 2012 Address Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main,
More informationRISK DASHBOARD. April
RISK DASHBOARD April 2017 1 Risks Level Trend 1. Macro risks High 2. Credit risks Medium 3. Market risks Medium 4. Liquidity and funding risks Medium 5. Profitability and solvency Medium 6. Interlinkages
More informationConsumer Vulnerability Index
www.quantec.co.za December 211 Consumer Vulnerability Index CONSUMER VULNERABILITY REMAIN AT LOWER LEVELS Quantec s Consumer Vulnerability Index (CVI) has recorded a stable pattern since the fourth quarter
More informationThe euro area bank lending survey. Third quarter of 2016
The euro area bank lending survey Third quarter of 216 October 216 Contents Introduction 2 1 Overview of the results 3 Box 1 General notes 4 2 Developments in credit standards, terms and conditions, and
More informationNI Employment rises in Q & unemployment still rising
Group Economics Group Economics Employment Falls in Q4 21 & unemployment still rising NI Employment rises in 212 & unemployment still rising Contact: Richard Ramsey Chief Economist, Northern Ireland 289
More informationLabour. Overview Latin America and the Caribbean EXECUT I V E S U M M A R Y
2016 Labour Overview Latin America and the Caribbean EXECUT I V E S U M M A R Y ILO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean 3 ILO / Latin America and the Caribbean Foreword FOREWORD This 2016
More informationStructural changes in the Maltese economy
Structural changes in the Maltese economy Article published in the Annual Report 2014, pp. 72-76 BOX 4: STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE MALTESE ECONOMY 1 Since the global recession that took hold around the
More informationGERMANY REVIEW OF PROGRESS ON POLICY MEASURES RELEVANT FOR THE
EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Brussels, December 2016 GERMANY REVIEW OF PROGRESS ON POLICY MEASURES RELEVANT FOR THE CORRECTION OF MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES Table
More informationErdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the April
More informationSPECIAL REPORT. TD Economics ASSESSING CHINA S QUEST FOR ECONOMIC REBALANCING
SPECIAL REPORT TD Economics ASSESSING CHINA S QUEST FOR ECONOMIC REBALANCING Highlights Chinese spending on fixed investments have climbed to 8% of GDP from roughly % a decade ago. This has come at the
More informationFinancing. of the. Economy
CONTENT SUMMARY... 3 1. LOAN GROWTH IN THE EURO AREA AND IN ESTONIA'S NEIGHBOURS... 5 2. FINANCING OF COMPANIES... 9 2.1. The impact economic environment and investment activity on corporate financing...
More informationIncomes and inequality: the last decade and the next parliament
Incomes and inequality: the last decade and the next parliament IFS Briefing Note BN202 Andrew Hood and Tom Waters Incomes and inequality: the last decade and the next parliament Andrew Hood and Tom Waters
More informationWill Fiscal Stimulus Packages Be Effective in Turning Around the European Economies?
Will Fiscal Stimulus Packages Be Effective in Turning Around the European Economies? Presented by: Howard Archer Chief European & U.K. Economist IHS Global Insight European Fiscal Stimulus Limited? Europeans
More informationCOMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT. Analysis of the 2016 Draft Budgetary Plan of GERMANY. Accompanying the document COMMISSION OPINION
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 16.11.2015 SWD(2015) 601 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Analysis of the 2016 Draft Budgetary Plan of GERMANY Accompanying the document COMMISSION OPINION on the Draft
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Outlook for Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles Published in collaboration with Highlights GDP growth With the Finnish economy still struggling to
More informationto 4 per cent annual growth in the US.
A nation s economic growth is determined by the rate of utilisation of the factors of production capital and labour and the efficiency of their use. Traditionally, economic growth in Europe has been characterised
More informationLegal services sector forecasts
www.lawsociety.org.uk Legal services sector forecasts 2017-2025 August 2018 Legal services sector forecasts 2017-2025 2 The Law Society of England and Wales August 2018 CONTENTS SUMMARY OF FORECASTS 4
More informationMind The Funding Gap. The financial challenges facing small and medium-sized housebuilders
1 Mind The Funding Gap The financial challenges facing small and medium-sized housebuilders 2 Summary Small and medium-sized (SME) housebuilders play an important role in delivering new housing but the
More information2018 World Savings Day
ACRI Association of Italian Savings Banks 2018 World Savings Day Address by the Governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco Rome, 31 October 2018 The protection of savings calls, in the first place, for
More informationOVERVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN ICT INVESTMENT IN CANADA, 2011
September 212 151 Slater Street, Suite 71 Ottawa, Ontario K1P 5H3 613-233-8891, Fax 613-233-825 csls@csls.ca CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF LIVING STANDARDS OVERVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN ICT INVESTMENT IN CANADA,
More informationThe impact of interest rates and the housing market on the UK economy
The impact of interest and the housing market on the UK economy....... The Chancellor has asked Professor David Miles to examine the UK market for longer-term fixed rate mortgages. This paper by Adrian
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010)
April 30, 2010 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010) The Bank's View 1 The global economy has emerged from the sharp deterioration triggered by the financial crisis and has
More information