GCC Fixed Income Weekly August 2, 2013

Transcription

1 Sanjeev75 GCC Fixed Income Weekly Summary A spate of better than estimated economic data from EU and US resulted in weakness in the market. Both Cash and CDS closed in red HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai Conv. TR (-.4%) outperformed JPEMBI (-.86%). However, Sukuk (-.21%) did better than Conventional Market breadth was marginally positive in cash with gainers losers ratio of 6:4. ST-MT IG Banking names were the major gainers with IDB, NBAD, CBQ and QNB leading the pack. Qatar Sovereign was the major loser with spreads widening across the space Market continues to remain volatile resulting in preference for short to medium duration CDS market ended in negative with spreads widening across the space. Dubai led the pack with spreads widening by 8bps (+3.76%) followed by Qatar 2bps (+2.19%) and Bahrain 5bps (+2.8%) Table of Contents Market Review 1 Global Credit Markets 2 GCC Sovereign 3 Abu Dhabi Corporate 4 Qatar Corporate 5 Dubai Corporate 6 Other Corporate 7 Banks 8 Comparative 1 Regional Performance 13 CDS Spreads 14

2 Market Review GCC Markets Q Tel Reports Solid 2Q 13 On Back Of Iraqi Operations- Consolidated revenue came in at QAR8,7mn, growing 3.1% Q-o-Q and 4.2% Y-o-Y. Practically all operations saw both Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y top-line improvement, with Qtel Qatar resuming growth after three quarters of flat revenue and Asiacell growing revenue by 2.5% Q-o-Q on high subscriber additions (c3,). Nawras grew its top line by 4.2% Q-o-Q on higher-than-forecast mobile subscriber additions and higher data revenue (mobile + fixed). Qtel s 2Q 13 numbers showed no major operational surprises while lower depreciation and amortisation, and lower taxes and royalties, pushed earnings to QAR923mn (+14% Q-o-Q; +44% Y-o-Y). The main positive highlight of the quarter was the good performance for Asiacell (Iraq), something the market had been watching closely as competition in the Iraqi telecom market (North + Kurdish areas) intensified on increased activity from both Korek Telecom and Zain Iraq. The Kuwaiti operation, however, remains the sore spot with margins under immense pressure. Occupancy Rates In Dubai Hotels Moves Up- Dubai hotels continue to see high occupancy levels as the hotel market saw an 86% occupancy in the 1H 13, according to a report by HotStats. Dubai s hotel market continues to grow from strength to strength,the high levels of demand continue to be driven by the strong economic activity within the city, coupled with its attractiveness as an all-round leisure destination, said Peter Goddard, Managing Director of TRI Hospitality Consulting in Dubai. Average Room Rates (ARR) were up 6.2 % to USD27.49 (Dh761.48), increasing Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) by 11.2% to USD164.22, as per the report. Investcorp Buys Tyrrells - Bahrain based private equity investor Investcorp said that it had acquired premium crisp and snack maker Tyrrells Potato Crisps from Langholm Capital for GBPmn. Last month Investcorp bought a 38% stake in a Saudi oil and gas services company and was expecting to complete up to three more deals through its USD1bn Gulf fund in 213, an executive at the firm said. The investment management group reported on Tuesday a 56% percent rise in full-year net income, helped by strong growth in fee income. Dana Gas 2Q 13 Net Falls - Dana Gas, an energy firm based in the United Arab Emirates, on Sunday posted a 45% drop in 2Q 13 net profit as revenues declined and uncollected receivables for its production in Egypt and Iraq's Kurdistan region went up. GCC Market Performance The Week Gone By A spate of better than estimated economic data from EU and US resulted in weakness in the market. Both Cash and CDS ended down. Market breadth was marginally positive in cash with gainers losers ratio of 6:4. ST-MT IG Banking names were the major gainers with IDB, NBAD, CBQ and QNB leading the pack. Abu Dhabi Quasi Sovereign names namely Mubadala and Taqa also did well. Qatar Sovereign was the major loser with spreads widening across the space. Market continues to remain volatile resulting in preference for short to medium duration. Sukuk (-.21%) performed better than Conventional (-.4%). HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai GCC USD Sukuk/Bond TR Index (GCCB) was marginally down at Spreads widened by 8bps to 1bps, yielding 4.12%. HSBC Nadaq-Dubai USD Sukuk TR Index (SKBI) was down at 145.4, yielding 3.76%, while HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai GCC Conventional USD Bond TR Index (GCBI) traded in a range of HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai Conv. TR (-.4%) outperformed JPEMBI (-.86%). GCC Sovereign-IG: Abu Dhabi 14 and Abu Dhabi 19 were the best performers with MS Spreads tightening by 11bps (-85.1%) and 7bps (-7.3%) respectively. Qatar 14 was the worst performer with spreads widening by 3bps (+12.5%). GCC Corporate-IG: Sabic 13 and Q Tel 14 were the best performers with MS Spreads tightening by 3bps (-34.5%) and 12bps (-14.9%) respectively. Taqa O13 was the worst performer with spreads widening by 17bps (+69.7%). GCC Banks-IG: IDB 17 and IDB 15 were the best performers with MS Spreads tightening by 15bps (-42.2%) and 11bps (-35.6%) respectively. HSBC 16 was the worst performer with spreads widening by 14bps (+1.%). GCC High Volatility: Bahrain 14 and KIPCO 2 were the best performer with spreads tightening by 9bps (-1.5%) and 18bps (-4.3%) respectively. Dubai 15 was the worst performer with spreads widening by 12bps (+6.3%). Stars and Strugglers: Top three weekly performers in terms of MS Spreads were Abu Dhabi 14 (-85.1%), IDB 17 (-42.4%) and IDB 15 (-35.6%). Bottom three strugglers were Taqa O13 (+69.7%), Qatar 14 (+12.5%) and Qatar 19 (+1.3%). GCC Sovereign CDS: Market ended in negative with spreads widening across the space. Dubai led the pack with spreads widening by 8bps (+3.76%) followed by Qatar 2bps (+2.19%) and Bahrain 5bps (+2.8%). 1

3 US Dollar US Bonds TIPS REIT EM Bonds Asia Bonds Global Bonds GCC Bonds Commodities Oil Asia Equities Gold EM Equities GCC Equities Europe Equities US Equities GCC Fixed Income Weekly Global Credit Markets 1M Returns across Asset Classes TR Swap Spreads 7% 6% 5% 4% 15 CS EM EMEA CS EM Asia CS EM Latam CS Europe CS US 3% 2% 1% % -1% 9-2% 85 8 GCC Spreads GCC vs. EM Bond Returns 13 JPM EM Bond Index HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai Conventional TR HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai Basis Spreads Jul13 16Jul13 23Jul13 3Jul13 GCC Bond vs. Sukuk Returns GCC Bond/Sukuk Issuances (USD bn) Sukuk Bonds 99 HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai Sukuk TR HSBC Nasdaq-Dubai Conventional TR YTD 2

4 GCC Sovereign Qatar Sovereign MS Spread Curve Qatar 14 Qatar 15 Qatar 17 Qatar 19 Qatar 2 Qatar 22 Qatar 3 Qatar 4 Qatar 42 Qatar 18 Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Qatar Abu Dhabi Sovereign MS Spread Curve AD 14 AD 19 AD AD Dubai Sovereign MS Spread Curve Dubai 14 Dubai 15 Dubai 2 Dubai 21 Dubai 17 Dubai Dubai Dubai Dubai Dubai Dubai Dubai Bahrain Sovereign MS Spread Curve Bahrain 14 Bahrain 18 Bahrain 2 Bahrain 22 Bahrain Bahrain Bahrain Bahrain

5 Abu Dhabi Corporate Taqa MS Spread Curve Mubadala MS Spread Curve Taqa O13 Taqa 14 Taqa 16 Taqa M17 Taqa O17 Taqa 18 Taqa 19 Taqa 21 Taqa 36 Taqa O Taqa A Taqa Taqa Taqa M Taqa O Taqa Taqa Taqa Taqa Note: Taqa O13 is denominated in EUR Mub 14 Mub 16 Mub 19 Mub 21 Mub Mub Mub Mub IPIC MS Spread Curve 5 IPIC 15 IPIC 16 IPIC 17 IPIC 2 IPIC 21 IPIC 22 IPIC 26 IPIC 41 IPIC IPIC IPIC IPIC IPIC IPIC IPIC IPIC Note: IPIC 16 and IPIC 21 are denominated in EUR; IPIC 26 in GBP Other Corporate MS Spread Curve 35 3 TDIC J14 TDIC O14 Waha 2 Dolphin 19 Dolphin 21 TDIC J TDIC O Waha Dolphin Dolphin

6 Abu Dhabi Qatar Corporate Ras Gas MS Spread Curve 3 5 RasGas 14 RasGas 16 RasGas 19 RasGas 2 RasGas RasGas RasGas RasGas RasGas RasGas RasGas RasGas Qatari Diar MS Spread Curve QDiar QDiar QDiar 15 QDiar 2 6 QTel MS Spread Curve QTel 14 QTel 16 QTel 19 QTel 21 QTel 25 Qtel 23 QTel QTel QTel QTel Qtel QTel

7 Dubai Corporate DEWA MS Spread Curve DEWA 15 DEWA 16 DEWA 2 DEWA DEWA DEWA DEWA DEWA DP World MS Spread Curve DPWorld DPWorld DPWorld 17 DPWorld 37 Real Estate MS Spread Curve Emaar 16 Nakheel 16 Emaar 19 Emaar Nakheel Emaar Note: Nakheel 16 is denominated in AED Other MS Spread Curve EMIRAT DubHold DubHold JAFZA EMIRAT EMIRAT EMIRAT 16 DubHold 14 DubHold 17 JAFZA 19 EMIRAT 25 EMIRAT 23 Note: DubHold 14 is demoninated in EUR; DubHold 17 in GBP 6

8 Other Corporate IDB MS Spread Curve IDB 14 IDB 15 IDB 16 IDB IDB IDB IDB IDB Saudi Industrials MS Spread Curve 5 Sabic 13 Sabic 15 SEC 17 SEC 22 SEC 23 SEC 43 Sabic Sabic SEC SEC SEC SEC Note: Sabic 13 is denominated in EUR Other Sovereign & Quasi-Sovereign MS Spread Curve Mumtalakat 15 RAK Cap 14 RAK Cap 16 Mumtalakat RAK Cap RAK Cap Other Corporate MS Spread Curve 1,775 1,575 1,375 1, Dar Arkan 15 MBPS 15 MAF 17 MAF 19 Dar Arkan MBPS 15 1, MAF MAF

9 Banks - Abu Dhabi NBAD MS Spread Curve NBAD 14 NBAD 15 NBAD 17 NBAD 19 NBAD NBAD NBAD NBAD ADIB MS Spread Curve ADIB 15 ADIB 16 ADIB 49 ADIB ADIB ADIB FGB MS Spread Curve FGB FGB 17J FGB 17O FGB 16 FGB 17J FGB 17O 12 ADCB MS Spread Curve ADCB 14 ADCB N16 ADCB 18 ADCB 23 ADCB ADCB N ADCB ADCB

10 Banks - Other Qatar MS Spread Curve 35 3 QIBC 15 QNB 15 CBQ 14 CBQ 19 QNB 17 Doha 17 CBQ 17 QIB 17 QIIB 17 5 QIBC QNB QNB CBQ CBQ Doha CBQ QIB QIIB Saudi MS Spread Curve 125 SABB 15 BSF 15 BSF 17 SABB BSF BSF UAE (Except Abu Dhabi) MS Spread Curve 35 3 SIB 16 UNB 16 HSBC 16 EIB 17 Tamweel 17 ENBD 17 DIB 17 EIB 18 SIB UNB HSBC EIB Tamweel ENBD DIB EIB Other MS Spread Curve 8 7 Investcorp 17 KIPCO 2 BBK 15 Burgan 2 GIC 17 GIB 17 KIPCO KIPCO KIPCO Burgan BBK Investcorp GIC GIB

11 Comparatives 1Y Sovereign (Rebased MS Spread) 5Y Sovereign (Rebased MS Spread) Qatar 23 AD 19 Dubai 23 Bahrain Qatar 18 AD 19 Dubai 17 Bahrain Y AD Corp (Rebased MS Spread) 5Y AD Corp (Rebased MS Spread) 16 Mub 21 Waha 2 IPIC 21 Taqa Mub 16 IPIC 15 IPIC 16 Taqa Y Qatar Corp (Rebased MS Spread) 5Y Qatar Corp (Rebased MS Spread) QDiar 15 RasGas 14 RasGas 16 QTel 14 QTel 16 Aldar QDiar 2 RasGas 2 QTel 19 QTel

12 Comparatives 1Y Dubai Corp (Rebased MS Spread) 5Y Dubai Corp (Rebased MS Spread) DEWA 2 DPWorld 17 DubHold 17 DEWA 15 DEWA 16 Nakheel 16 Emaar 16 1Y Other Corp (Rebased MS Spread) 5Y AD Banks (Rebased MS Spread) IDB 15 IDB 16 Mumtalakat 15 RAK Cap 16 Sabic NBAD 15 ADIB 16 ADIB 15 FGB 16 ADCB N16 UNB Y Banks Others (Rebased MS Spread) QIBC 15 QNB 15 SABB 15 BSF 15 BBK 15 SIB 16 HSBC 16 KIPCO

13 Comparatives Qatar 5Y Sov vs. Quasi Sov (Rebased MS Spread) Qatar 1Y Sov vs. Quasi Sov (Rebased MS Spread) Qatar 19 Qatar 2 QDiar 2 QTel 21 RasGas 2 RasGas Qatar 15 Qatar 17 QDiar 15 RasGas 16 QTel Abu Dhabi 5Y Sov vs. Quasi Sov (Rebased MS Spread) Abu Dhabi 1Y Sov vs. Quasi Sov (Rebased MS Spread) AD 19 Taqa 19 Mub 19 IPIC 2 Waha 2 UNB Taqa 16 Mub 16 IPIC 16 TDIC O Dubai 5Y Sov vs. Quasi Sov (Rebased MS Spread) Dubai 15 DEWA 15 EMIRAT 16 Dubai 1Y Sov vs. Quasi Sov (Rebased MS Spread) Dubai 2 Dubai 21 DEWA 2 12

14 Regional Performance Top 15 Performers (based on MS Spreads) Spread Chg-1W (%) Chg-1W (bps) Chg-1M (%) Chg-1M (bps) 52W Hi 52W Lo AD % % IDB % % IDB % % Sabic % % Mub % % IDB % % NBAD % % QTel % % Bahrain % % NBAD % % TDIC J % % NBAD % % CBQ % % Taqa % % AD % % Bottom 15 Performers (based on MS Spreads) Spread Chg-1W (%) Chg-1W (bps) Chg-1M (%) Chg-1M (bps) 52W Hi 52W Lo Taqa O % % Qatar % % Qatar % % HSBC % % Qatar % % SEC % % ADCB % % Dubai % % Nakheel % % Qatar % % Qatar % % Dolphin % % Qatar % % IPIC % % Dubai % %

15 CDS Spreads GCC CDS Spreads Dubai CDS Spreads DU AD QA SA BH Jul13 9Jul13 15Jul13 21Jul13 27Jul13 2Aug13 3Jul13 9Jul13 15Jul13 21Jul13 27Jul13 2Aug13 Saudi CDS Spreads 8 Abu Dhabi CDS Spreads Jul13 9Jul13 15Jul13 21Jul13 27Jul13 2Aug13 5 3Jul13 9Jul13 15Jul13 21Jul13 27Jul13 2Aug13 Qatar CDS Spreads Jul13 9Jul13 15Jul13 21Jul13 27Jul13 2Aug13 Bahrain CDS Spreads Jul13 9Jul13 15Jul13 21Jul13 27Jul13 2Aug13 Source: Reuters 14

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