Measuring foreign direct investment in the area of information and communication technology in Egypt

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Measuring foreign direct investment in the area of information and communication technology in Egypt Phase 2, Deliverable #4 - Results and analysis of data collection in FDI in ICT Prepared for the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, Information Centre (MCIT-IC) Geoffrey Robertson (consultant) and Tim Kelly (Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infodev/world Bank) Revised 19 January Vol. 5 1

2 Abbreviations BOP Balance of payments BPCG International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments Compilation Guide, BPM5 International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments Manual fifth edition) BPM6 International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments Manual (draft sixth edition), 2008 CBE Central Bank of Egypt FDI Foreign direct investment FDIE Foreign direct investment enterprise FES Foreign exchange system GAFI General Authority for Investment GAFI EPD GAFI Economic Performance Department GICT Global Information and Communication Technology (World Bank department) ICT Information and Communications Technology IIP International Investment Position ITIDA Information Technology Industry Development Agency MCIT Ministry of Communication and Information Technology MCIT-IC Information Centre of the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology RTA Reimbursable Technical Assistance 2

3 Table of contents Executive summary... 4 Chapter 1. Introduction... 6 Chapter 2. An analysis of the interim results on FDI Why conduct a survey? Anticipated problems Survey form and method Chapter 3. Analysis of the results for FDI in the ICT Sector FDI inflows, Interpreting the results What exactly is direct investment? The cumulative level of Foreign Direct Investment in the ICT Sector Using the survey results Assessing accuracy Chapter 4: Recommendations and next steps Annex: Streamlined survey questionnaire

4 Executive summary This study of the measurement of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector of Egypt s economy forms part of the second amendment to a reimbursable technical assistance (RTA) programme delivered by the Global Information and Communication Technology (GICT) department of the World Bank to the Information Centre of the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology (MCIT-IC) of the government of Egypt. The initial agreement was signed in June 2006 and the second amendment in August The focus of the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology (MCIT) is to promote the development of ICT services (and ICT-enabled services) in Egypt so that Egypt has the best ICT technology available to it. In addition ICT services provide significant export earnings, and provide employment opportunities, particularly for the increasingly well-educated Egyptian community. To achieve the further development of the ICT sector, Egypt aims to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from foreign entities that are ICT specialists. Indeed, attracting FDI is a key pillar of Egypt s ICT Strategy. To understand and monitor the success of this policy, MCIT therefore needs good statistical data on FDI. The World Bank s GICT department has been asked to assist in MCIT s measurement of FDI in the ICT sector by clarifying what are ICT products and services, and what are appropriate measures, based on international best practice, of FDI, and what strategies should be developed to obtain a more accurate measure of FDI. Clarifying the nature of ICT services is the first part of the project and a separate report exists on this (final draft delivered February 2009). In May this year, a draft report covering Part 2 of the project concerned with the appropriate measurement of FDI, and forming the second and final deliverable, was provided (revised report delivered in September 2009). The third deliverable, conducted between June July 2009 by a combined team of World Bank and MCIT-IC staff, resulted in the development of a sampling framework based on some 50 companies present in the ICT Sector in Egypt which were considered to have the potential for having made foreign direct investments in the ICT sector. This was followed by a questionnaire survey conducted by AC Nielsen on behalf of MCIT-IC between August October This report (Deliverable #4) prepared by Mr Robertson and Dr Kelly, was prepared following a second visit to Cairo (November, 8-13). A first version was submitted in mid-november 2009 and this revised version in January 2010, along with the final project report. It has the following structure: Chapter 1, Introduction, sets out the objectives of the project and the overall progess to date. It describes the methodology followed and the challenges encountered. Chapter 2, An analysis of the interim results on FDI, presents the preliminary findings of the work conducted by AC Nielsen, and deals with some of the methodological issues encountered in reconciling this data set with other data sets, such as the financial data derived from company annual reports. Chapter 3, Revised estimates of FDI, presents the revised estimates for FDI in the ICT Sector, once the data has been reviewed and revised. By the end of FY2008, cumulative FDI in the ICT Sector had reached LE 16.6 billion (US$3.06 billion). The annual inflow peaked in FY 2007 at LE11.9 billion (US$2.18 billion), a higher figure than previously estimated. The main cause of this was the sale of the third mobile license to Etisalat in July 2006 (at the start of FY2007), and Etisalat s subsequent investment to start operations. Chapter 4, Recommendations and next steps, offers advice to MCIT-IC and other actors within the Egyptian government on how to continue with the collection of FDI data in future, including refinements to the questionnaire and the use of balance sheet data to supplement and cross-check data derived from the questionnaire. It also identifies possible issues where further work would be justified. 4

5 The annexes to the report provide more detail on the actual results derived from the questionnaire and methods used for data reconciliation. 5

6 Chapter 1. Introduction This study comprises the fourth and final deliverable for a project to measure the level of of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector of Egypt s economy. To date a prime focus has been on measuring the financial inflow of FDI into ICT. However, concern has been expressed about the measure of FDI inflow because there is an apparent discrepancy between the measures of FDI inflow produced by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and those of the General Authority for Investment (GAFI). The measure of FDI inflows in ICT shows great volatility from year to year (dropping from $US million in and almost zero in ), and there is a lack of understanding of exactly what is being measured (see Figure 1). Figure 1: Variation in the estimation of FDI in Egypt s ICT sector from official sources GAFI estimates Main line of business Communication Information Technology services of Technology systems Total CBE estimates FDI Value July- December 2006* 1, January- March * 1, , April-June Values in million USD July- September ** Values in million USD July- September The work carried out in phase 1 of the Note: ** Year to Aug project has laid the groundwork for this second phase by reaching consensus on an agreed definition of the ICT sector in Egypt and identifying some 50 or so firms that would be included in the data gathering phase. The report on Part 2 followed the visit of Mr Geoffrey Robertson (World Bank FDI expert consultant) to Cairo in April. That report advised on what are appropriate future measures, based on international best practice, of FDI; assessed the discrepancies in Egyptian statistics on FDI in the ICT sector, and more generally, the adequacy of the statistics; and outlined a plan to obtain a more appropriate measure of FDI. That report was developed in close consultation with officials from MCIT-IC, the Information Technology Industrial Development Agency (ITIDA),the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), which is responsible for the compilation of Egypt s balance of payments (BOP), and various staff of GAFI (General Authority for Investment). The project was conducted under the guidance of Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist at infodev / World Bank. Following the recommendations of that report (deliverable #2), which provided detailed survey design instructions, MCIT-IC staff, with assistance from Carlo Rossotto (Senior ICT Policy Specialist, World Bank) and Tim Kelly, and with the assistance of leading industry experts, selected ICT sector companies with direct investment in Egypt for inclusion in the data sampling framework (Deliverable #3). With help from AC Nielsen, MCIT-IC carried out a pilot survey of these companies, and then conducted a survey measuring, for recent years, FDI in the ICT sector and the contribution that FDI companies make to the Egyptian economy. This report (Deliverable #4), prepared by Mr Robertson and Dr Kelly, was prepared following a second visit to Cairo (November, 8-13). During this visit, the team worked closely with MCIT-IC staff, notably with Dr. Nagwa El-shenawy (Director, MCIT-IC), Ms. Maie Asraf Hamdy, Ms. Eman El Shewy, Ms Heba Youssef (all MCIT-IC). The terms of reference for this second mission also cover a number of sub-deliverables, including developing a platform for data sharing, a sampling framework and data analysis and reporting. 6

7 During the second visit, Mr Robertson and MCIT-IC staff met a number of ICT companies, including Vodafone Egypt, Etisalat, MobiNil, IBM, Microsoft, HP and Cisco, to discuss the nature of their activities, direct foreign investment characteristics, measures of their economic performance and account keeping practices. He reviewed the selection and data gathering procedures from the selected ICT companies, investigated data that had been reported and compiled interim estimates of FDI and measures of economic activity in the ICT sector. The World Bank team discussed and presented the findings with MCIT-IC staff on 11 November A further meeting was held on 23 November with the Central Bank of Egypt. As a result of the analysis, it was possible to review and revise the results obtained from MCIT-IC s work on financial data from the financial reports of operators. Much of the work focussed on reconciling estimates received from different sources, the survey, the interviews and the financial data contained in annual reports. Additional efforts were made to fill some of the gaps left in the original data collection exercise conducted by AC Nielsen. A revised set of estimates were made and are presented in chapter three of the report. Finally, chapter four presents recommendations and other suggested next steps for MCIT-IC and its partner agencies. 7

8 Chapter 2. An analysis of the interim results on FDI 2.1 Why conduct a survey? The second deliverable for this project had identified the need for a survey to establish a new reporting mechanism for FDI data in the ICT sector. Unlike other existing reporting mechanisms, it would focus only on firms identified to be active in the ICT Sector (based on the definition adopted in Deliverable 1: See Table 1) and the results obtained would be treated as confidential, as they touch on the commercial operations of the firms concerned. There are a number of reasons as to why a survey approach is desirable: Foreign exchange statistics are used in many countries to measure Balance of Payments (BoP) transactions, but unless supplemented by direct surveys of FDI enterprises cannot measure FDI flows, or the stock of FDI adequately. This is because many transactions of FDI enterprises are not captured in foreign exchange statistics, for instance because they may be carried out outside the host country. FDI in Egypt s ICT sector is concentrated into a relatively small number of multinational firms. Initially some 50 firms were identified as potential FDI investors but, following detailed deliberations with sector experts, this was reduced to just 16 who account for the majority of investment which The "Big 3" The "Other Reporters" Other companies included in the survey Orascom Telecom Etisalat Cisco ACCM Hitachi Holidings MobiNil East Nets Alcatel-Lucent Huawei Raya Telecom Vodafone Egypt Ericsson BEA Intel SAP HP Convergsys Libertis Telecom SA Satyam IBM Egypt Ditech Networks Link.Net SQS Microsoft EDS Mentor Graphics Europe Stream Nile Online EgyNet Metra Computer Summit Technologies Oracle Egyptian German Telecom Industries Mobiserve Systel Epicor Software Corp NEC Group Telecordia Technologies Fujitsu services Ltd Nokia Siemens Network Teradata Giesecke & Devrient Egypt Nortel Egypt WiPro Global Beam Orange (Equant) Zhone Technologies Orange Business Google Cairo Centre ZTE Figure 3: ICT sector companies considered for inclusion in the survey Based on the sampling framework developed as Deliverable 3 (June/July 2009) were included in the sampling framework (see first two columns in Figure 2). Of these 16, some 11 (69 per cent) responded to the survey. Furthermore, the data is somewhat skewed by the fact that the big three (ie the mobile operators MobiNil, Vodafone Egypt and Etisalat) constitute a high percentage of the total. In this Deliverable, the focus has been placed on the Big three (telecom sector) plus eight Other reporters (mainly in the IT sector) and the long tail of the remaining 39 companies, which are considered to be representative of the rest of the industry. The Benchmarking Exercise carried out for this study (see Annex B) provides a reasonable set of estimates for the percentage of total FDI that can be attributed to the big three (estimated at 96.6 per cent), the other reporters (2.9 per cent) and the long tail (0.5 per cent). This means that a relatively high level of accuracy can be obtained cost-effectively by focussing data resources on a number of firms that is smaller than the entire population. The data required to measure FDI can be taken readily from the balance sheet and profit and loss statements of FDI enterprises. It should be emphasized though that the financial data provides an important sanity check to the number obtained from the survey. 8

9 Broad category Corresponding ISIC Rev 4 sector ISIC Rev. 4 code 1. Telecoms Hardware, manufacture, wholesale and repair Manufacture of communication equipment 2630 Manufacture of magnetic and optical media 2680 Wholesale of electronic and telecommunications equipment and parts 4652 Repair of communication equipment Telecom services Wired telecommunications activities Computer hardware and consumer electronic, manufacture, wholesale and repair Wireless telecommunications activities 6120 Satellite telecommunications activities 6130 Other telecommunications activities 6190 Manufacture of electronic components and boards 2610 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment 2620 Manufacture of consumer electronics 2640 Wholesale of computers, computer peripheral equipment and software 4651 Repair of computers and peripheral equipment Networking Computer consultancy and computer facilities management activities 5. Software development and computer services 6. IT-enabled services, business process outsourcing and call centres 7. Advanced media services and digital content 8. E-commerce, e- transactions and services that support e-transactions 6202 Publishing of computer games 5820 Other software publishing 5820 Computer programming activities 6201 Data processing, hosting and related activities 6311 Other information technology and computer service activities [Part of] Television programming and broadcasting activities [Part of] Motion picture, video and television programme distribution activities Web portals 6312 Table 1: Definition of the ICT Sector based on industrial groupings used in Egypt and their derivation in ISIC Rev. 4 Source: Table 15 from Deliverable #1 9

10 There is a close contact and mutual respect between ICT businesses and MCIT-IC. This is essential in obtaining commercially sensitive data MCIT-IC already measures the national accounts of the ICT sector in Egypt, and therefore the additional effort to measure FDI flows represents an incremental effort. MCIT-IC is thus better placed to collect this data than other agencies of the Egyptian government. In addition to the 50 companies that were included in the survey, there is a much larger number of firms that were considered for inclusion (for instance, the ITIDA database lists over firms, many of which are only involved in retail services). But these were not included in the survey either because: They are not covered by the definition of the ICT sector adopted in Deliverable 1. Examples of firms that were considered but ultimately excluded from the survey include Valeo, ITS, HSBC Regional Centre, Xerox, Teleperformance and EMC. Companies that may fit within the sector, but which were excluded because they are very small (such as self-employed individuals, or companies, like retailers, that may have a small percentage of their activities relevant to the sector. These companies are indirectly included through the scaling up technique which takes the estimate of FDI derived from the Big 3 and other reporters and multiplies is up to cover the sector as a whole. 2.2 Anticipated problems Carrying out a survey like this for the first time is never easy. As a result, it is possible to anticipate a number of problems: Companies are not required to provide data to MCIT-IT, although there is a requirement that they provide copies of audited accounts to GAFI and ITIDA. The nature of this requirement needs to be clarified, but it is certainly a potential source of data, if the data collected by GAFI and ITIDA could be amended to better reflect the data required for the FDI survey Measuring FDI requires understanding complex concepts associated with FDI and accounting records of companies not an easy challenge. FDI enterprises are large and complex structures. Points of contact in the firms surveyed are likely to be with sales and ICT Box 1: Survey Design principles In order to maximise the number of useable responses, a number of design principles were adopted in the questionnaire survey: Adopt a rigorous definition of which businesses are in scope (50 FDI enterprises in the ICT sector were selected: see Figure 3) Collect data items, based on balance sheet and profit and loss statements, that measure: FDI flows FDI stock Economic activity of FDI enterprises and impact on economy. Adopt measures and procedures based on world s best practice. Measures and survey design comply closely with the IMF Balance of Payments and International Investment Statistics Manual sixth edition, and Balance of Payments Compilation Guide, and Follow survey method adopted 10 In many counties to collect BOP and IIP measures of FDI In Australia and elsewhere to measure economic activity of FDI enterprises. Maintain close contact with companies. Combine data from different sources, if appropriate, and at a minimum focus on getting data from the larger companies (Big 3) right. Use estimation if required.

11 technical staff, not accounting staff, who are often located abroad. The data required are considered highly sensitive and commercially confidential. Only a short timeframe is available to achieve a result. The sampling framework was finalized in July 2009 and the survey was launched, under contract by AC Nielsen, with results expected by September. Because problems were anticipated with the data collection phase, as noted above, it was necessary to design the survey carefully to maximise the number of useable responses. A number of design principles were adopted (see Box 1). 2.3 Survey form and method To implement the safeguards outlined in Box 1, much care and attention was taken to get the survey form design right. In particular: Designing survey form and procedures is an art to ensure form gets to the right person, is accepted as legitimate, is understood, and is easy to complete. For more background see BOP Compilation Guide. The key data items cover: Shareholders (are shareholders direct investors or direct investment enterprises?) Percentage of shares held is used in some calculations. Balance sheet items (on shareholders funds and financial claims/liabilities with related enterprises are used to measure the stock and flow of direct investment). Income and expense items are used to measure the level of economic activity and BOP components FDI flow (reinvested earnings) and FDI investment income (e.g. dividends and reinvested earnings). Other items measure employment and gross fixed capital formation during the year. The survey method was also optimized to ensure the results were useable. This was done by: Using a Survey register for tracking contact with each business and quality of reporting. Employing a Compilation system with: Data entry form for each business - shows reported data, calculations, data from other sources, and data checks. Data entry form for benchmarking and other sources. Collation table(s) to allow survey aggregates to be studied by contributors. Publication or output tables show summary results. Transparency, connectivity and documentation. Despite all these efforts, the survey response rate was poor. In some cases this was because the questionnaire may not have been fully understood, and clarifications were provided by the World Bank team at several stages during the data collection. The deadline was also extended from September to November Nevertheless, only two of the big three responded and eight other companies (the other reporters ). This response rate (69 per cent) was lower than expected, and the responses contained many errors and misunderstandings. As a result, the World Bank/MCIT-IC team needed to make an unexpectedly high level of effort to collect additional data (through interviews with the largest firms), to eliminate errors from the data reporting, to reconcile the data with other sources through back-checks (e.g., annual reports) and to work alongside MCIT-IC staff to 11

12 provide training on how to assess and modify the responses. Much of the required data is publicly available in annual reports and in at least one case, a missing data response was created from scratch in the absence of a response to the questionnaire. As an example of the data cleaning that was required, Annex A provides an example of the differences between the sets of figures. Better data collection would require some sort of legislative obligation to report. 12

13 Chapter 3. Analysis of the results for FDI in the ICT Sector 3.1 FDI inflows, As a result of the work done by the World Bank and MCIT-IC team it has been possible to come up with an estimate of the value of FDI inflows, as shown below, and summarized in Figure 3: FDI inflows (LE million) US$m FY LE US$2 260 FY LE US$ 262 Source: Revised responses to MCIT-IC questionnaire. The results show, as expected, a spike in FDI inflows in the FY , associated with the entry of Etisalat (UAE) as the third mobile operator in Egypt, notably for the costs of acquiring the license. The figure obtained (US$2 195 million) appears to be higher than previous estimates, probably because a wider number of companies are included in this estimate. Equally, the decline in the following year, to US$262m), although only a fraction of the inflow in the previous year, is nevertheless much higher than had been estimated by other sources. Figure 3: Cumulative stock and inflow of FDI, in LE million Cumulative stock of FDI (in LE million) 18'000 16'847 15'616 16'000 14'000 12'000 10'000 8'000 6'000 4'000 3'235 2' Inflow of FDI (in LE million) 14'000 12'339 12'000 10'000 8'000 6'000 4'000 2'000 1' Source: World Bank estimates, based on results of project research. 3.2 Interpreting the results In order to make sense of these results, it is necessary to revisit some of the work done in Deliverable #2 on the theory behind FDI analysis. The FDI inflow has four components: New issues (less redemptions) of shares purchased by the Direct Investor (DI). Reinvested earnings of the Direct Investment Enterprise (DIE). Changes in claims on and liabilities to the DI (and related/associate companies). Purchase or sales of existing shares by DI s (takeovers). 13

14 For non-accountants and non-financial economists, this way of measuring FDI may seem a little strange. Investment is normally considered to build up the assets (resources) of a business. These may be financial assets (bank accounts, loans, shares), stocks of goods held, land and buildings, capital equipment, communication licences and possibly R&D expenditure if capitalised. Investment is normally considered to be expenditure on items that will not be consumed in the immediate (twelve months) future. Social capital (training) is not however included on balance sheets as assets. Direct investment (influx of cash or resources) may be the source of building up the assets. However, if financed by borrowing from other parties, it is not necessarily Direct Investment (DI). Hopefully this explains why we measure DI as we do. 3.3 What exactly is direct investment? The issue of how foreign direct investment is defined is covered in Deliverable #2. Here it is sufficient to remember that a direct investor (DI) is a resident of foreign economy that establishes, or helps to establish, or purchases (or partly purchases) a business in Egypt. The business in Egypt is then regarded as a direct investment enterprise (DIE). The DIE may be a branch (ie managed from the foreign site) or subsidiary (ie a company with some level of local management, but with overall control vested elsewhere) of a foreign company, or any company in which the DI has a shareholding of ten percent or more of the issued shares. The DI is considered to control (when holding more than 50% of the ownership of the business) or to influence the management of the DIE. Direct investment therefore is investment (providing finance or resources) by the DI to the DIE. Knowledge or knowhow is often provided by the DI, but this is difficult to measure except by looking at the performance of the DIE. 3.4 The cumulative level of Foreign Direct Investment in the ICT Sector In addition to calculating the net inflows of FDI in any particular year, it is also important to estimate the cumulative level of FDI in the sector, as this gives a better idea of the overall level of foreign commitment to the sector. The dataset is also less prone to sudden swings than the net inflows. The table below summarises the revised results obtained from the survey. Cumulative level of FDI (LE million) US$m 30 June 2006 LE US$ June 2007 LE US$ June 2008 LE US$3 097 Source: Revised responses to MCIT-IC questionnaire. At the start of FY , the cumulative level of FDI in the ICT Sector crossed the US$3 billion mark, which is a higher figure than previously estimated. Although FY stands out as the stellar year because of the entry of Etisalat and the sale of 3G licences, nevertheless the upwards growth has been sustained, albeit at a lower rate. The results are also summarised graphically in Figure 3. It should be noted that it is not necessarily the case that the cumulative level in Year 2 equals the cumulative total in Year 1 plus the net-inflow during that year. That is because a number of factors impact the equation (such as depreciation, dividends etc). The level of investment is the accumulation of investment (new investment, reinvested earnings, and other claims and liabilities with related companies) plus revaluation of assets and liabilities that may have occurred. The level of investment at the end of a year equals: Level of investment at beginning of year 14

15 Plus new investment Plus reinvested earnings Plus revaluation of balance sheet items. The survey data may also be used in calculating the Balance of Payments (BOP) and the International Investment Position (IIP). The relevant results include: Direct investment inflow: LE 1,431m IIP direct investment in Egypt: LE 16,847m at end June 2008 Direct investment dividends: LE 2 582m Direct investment, reinvested earnings (included in both direct investment income and direct investment inflow): LE m (Note: the negative figure suggests that some profits may be retained in the home country). 3.5 Using the survey results The survey should bring three main benefits for MCIT-IC, and more broadly for the Egyptian government: Firstly, they should provide a more informed understanding of size and nature of direct foreign investment and its impacts in the ICT sector. Secondly, they should assist many different types of stakeholders including: Policy analysts in MCIT and associated agencies; ICT sector industry; Those more broadly concerned with Egyptian economic management; Education institutions and international organisations studying the Egyptian economy. Thirdly, the survey data should provide better data to measure BOP/IIP and national account statistics. However, in putting the results to practical use, it is necessary to take into account a number of treatment issues. Often, these can be resolved by referring to a previous year s report. For example: An Egyptian resident company A is owned by B, a foreign resident company, with a 40% holding, and a resident company C, with holding of 60%. However, C is a DIE, with 80% of its shares owned by non resident company. For issued capital and dividends, 40% are attributable to DI. However for reinvested earnings and shareholders equity other than issues shares, 88% is attributable to DI (i.e. 40% + (60%x80%)). Account should be taken of costs for research and development (R&D), training, and other free services intended for social objectives (ie corporate social responsibility initiatives). The value of this work should be included in revenue with an offset in other expenses, a lower dividend or reduction in reinvested earnings depending on circumstances. Employment of contract workers, where these work alongside normal staff, should be counted as employees and included in employment costs. 3.6 Assessing accuracy In view of the fact that this is the first year the survey has been conducted, and because of the difficulties encountered in data collection, it is necessary to bear in mind a few caveats in assessing the accuracy of the data. The dataset involves estimation, through benchmarking for the large 15

16 number of smaller companies and even for the larger companies that were included, some estimation was involved 1. Many companies did not provide actual data because of company policy on release of data but provided assistance with estimation. To compensate for these shortcomings, data were tracked down from many additional sources (e.g., financial reports) and sometimes this was used to revise reported data. As such, the data presented here should be regarded as preliminary, but they nevertheless provide a reasonably sound account of the level of FDI in ICT Egypt. During the review process, it was necessary to make certain assumptions in order to complete the project in the available timeframe. These assumptions may need to be reviewed when more time is available. Specifically: The FDI inflow in may be estimated too high. It may also be negative, if profits have been retained in the home country. It is assumed that the losses sustained by DI Enterprises are financed by borrowing. The FDI level in may represent a dip, but it is more likely that the figures for the year earlier were exceptionally high and is closer to the norm. It is also possible that the estimates provided by the companies, or by the estimation methodology, produced results that were lower than actually prevailed. The estimates made for dividends and reinvested earnings are largely guesswork at present. This requires further investigation by a trained accountant and with the cooperation of the companies concerned. The employment numbers are estimated and more reliable figures may be available from other sources. It was decided to exclude Orascom Telecom Holdings because of the danger of double counting of MobiNil and because most of its holdings are outside Egypt. As a result, this may understate levels and flows of FDI. This decision may be reviewed following discussion with the MCIT team. There remain some reliability issues with the data reported by Etisalat and Vodafone. For Etisalat, no balance sheet information was received while for Vodafone the latest FY2008 report has not yet been received. Chapter Four: Recommendations and next steps This project has provided an opportunity for the MCIT-IC team to work alongside an international team of experts in together tackling a complex set of problems. The MCIT-IT staff members are to be congratulated for achieving a remarkable outcome in a very short timeframe. The experienced gained, both by MCIT-IC and the respondents, will facilitate better data collection in future. Recommendation 1: The momentum gained during the study should be continued as a full data collection is commenced on a regular reporting cycle. A timeline for the next phase of this work was established in the revised Deliverable 2. Although the schedule has been slightly delayed because of data collection problems, the next phase of regular data collection and report should be launched upon the completion of this project. Recommendation 2: The study results should be published with confidential information removed. This should encourage companies both to appreciate the study and to cooperate more 1 The research process did provide estimates of FDI for individual firms. These have been made available to the client. However, company-level data is not included in this report for reasons of commercial confidentiality. 16

17 fully in future data collection. Furthermore publication will assist in encouraging companies to revised and improve their own internal data collection and reporting. Reporting the results will also act as a showcase for Egypt s achievements in the field of ICT and in attracting further investment. The headline figure of US$3billion in cumulative FDI can be a powerful sales tool for promoting the benefits of ICTs in economic growth in discussion with other agencies. Recommendation 3: Data collection would be more effective if the requirement to report were made a legal obligation. Already companies have some obligations in reporting to GAFI and ITIDA. These requirements should be codified and, as appropriate, extended to the necessary FDI data. Recommendation 4: The survey questionnaire should be further improved and streamlined. The original questionnaire proposed in Deliverable 2 was simplified because companies were resistant to answering too many complex question. The streamlined version is enclosed as annex 3. Based on the experience of this project, it should be possible to further improve and streamline the questionnaire for the phase of full data collection. Recommendation 5: FDI estimates should be presented as an annualised figure. The calculation is complicated by the fact that different companies have differing year-ends (e.g., in December, in March or in June. It will be necessary to present a consolidated figure so that changes over time can be compared on a like-with-like basis. 17

18 Annex: Streamlined survey questionnaire The revised questionnaire is shown in the enclosed file. Streamlined questionnaire survey. 18

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