Interactive Outlook. Egypt in 2014: You come up with the assumptions, and we run the analysis. An Interactive Macroeconomic Outlook

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Interactive Outlook. Egypt in 2014: You come up with the assumptions, and we run the analysis. An Interactive Macroeconomic Outlook"

Transcription

1 Egypt in 2014: You come up with the assumptions, and we run the analysis An Interactive Macroeconomic Outlook March 2014

2 Introduction: In January 2014, Dcode EFC conducted an online survey to solicit input on the expectations of survey participants on some of the most important variables affecting Egypt s economy in 2014 as well as on the medium term. The responses to the survey formed the base assumptions in conducting an interactive macroeconomic outlook for the country. Dcode EFC incorporated the solicited assumptions about the political economy and international developments into its coherent forecasting model and used sound analytical techniques to provide you with the likely economic implications and forecasts that are consistent with such assumptions. The survey and results were based on tens of responses and were regularly updated on Dcode EFC s website and is presented in the annex section at the end. We thank those who were keen to share with us their inputs and insights and this interactive report attempts to produce consistent economic forecasts along with these precious inputs. Key Assumptions: This interactive report attempts to shed light on Egypt s economic prospects in light of the views and assumptions spelled out earlier in 2014 by a diversified group of professionals and experts in response to an online survey conducted by Dcode EFC. Key political and economic assumptions highlighted and shared by the respondents included the following: Amendments to 2012 constitution will take place as scheduled and will be approved. This would be followed by presidential then parliamentary elections at the end of current transitional phase. The respondents had mixed views with regards to the intensity and scale of demonstrations. The security situation would remain volatile with escalation in violence and terrorist attacks. The government would pursue a more ambitious fiscal consolidation path that includes phasing out of subsidies (fuel and food) along with higher taxes. On the external account, the respondents expect resilient and even higher exceptional Gulf assistance and Suez Canal receipts, yet they have mixed views with regards to remittances inflows. Most respondents believe that the IMF loan will not materialize over the forecast horizon, with the bilateral relation between Egypt and the EU normalizing at a faster pace than with the US. On the international front, most respondents projected higher global prices of commodities and oil as well as a pick-up in global economic activities. Key Macroeconomic Implications: Respondents expects the escalation of violence, attacks and deteriorated security situation which will lead to lower tourism receipts and hence lower exports of goods and services. Also, respondents had mixed views with regard to remittances inflows (views split

3 between an and stabilization). As such, remittance inflows are expected to stabilize rather than which will limit rate of growth of private consumption (main engine of real growth). This would lower projected real economic activities and would translate into higher unemployment rate. Also, the lower tourism receipts and remittance inflows would have negative impact on balance of payments and net international reserves. On the other hand, the surveyed audience supported a higher Gulf inflows path in the form of higher FDIs and lending by bilateral and regional Financial Institutions. These developments would have a positive impact on investments activities and hence on real growth as well as on external accounts. The respondents projected an accelerated (rather than a gradual) phasing out of energy subsidies. This can have a slightly positive impact on projected fiscal aggregates. Dcode EFC does not interpret these assumptions to imply unrealistically a sudden and shocking measures that eliminate subsides schemes but rather a higher pace of gradual streamlining of current subsidies schemes. This would also lead to higher inflation and deflator along with the impact of a continued depreciated Pound over forecast horizon. Accordingly, the higher projected inflation and prices would have negative impact on private consumption that would further act as a brake on real economic activities and real GDP growth path. Key Economic Indicators Forecasts (based on respondents assumptions) 1 : Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to continue to underperform in the short and medium terms. Real GDP growth is expected to average 2.26% in FY2013/14 before gradually rebounding to reach 3.1% and 3.3% in FY 2014/15 and FY 2015/16, respectively. The forecasted growth path reflects still a resilient private consumption despite growing at lower pace that what has been recorded in past years, strong public consumption due to constitutional spending targets and expansionary polices and measures adopted by recent governments, and more importantly a recovery in investment expenditures as confidence levels improve with higher political stability and the implementation of corrective reforms. We project large infrastructure and housing projects to be pursued over the medium-term with more focus on lagging regions (Upper Egypt and frontier governorates). These developments would outbalance the negative contribution of net exports, on average, over the short-term horizon. As such, the unemployment rate is projected to continue to throughout the projection horizon. Downside risks still prevails especially if political and security situations further deteriorate. 1 Dcode EFC standard outlook report includes further analysis and highlights as well as extended forecasting horizon that end in FY 2017/18. Page 3

4 Real GDP Growth Rate Interactive Outlook Fig. 1 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Deteriorated Growth is leading to higher unemployment 2009/ / / / / / / /14 0% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% Unemployment Rate Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and Dcode EFC experts calculations. The fiscal situation is projected to relatively improve in FY 2013/14 relative to the previous year mainly in light of exceptional Gulf grants (cash and in-kind), one-off receipts in the form of transfer of government deposits to the treasury of around EGP 30 billion 2, and lower cost of government borrowing. As such, we project overall deficit to reach around % of GDP in FY 2013/14. This estimate assumes minimal implementation of fiscal reforms imbedded in original FY 2013/14 budget figures with number of key reforms (sale tax reforms and streamlining of fuel subsidies) rolled over to the following years. Dcode EFC, based on respondents assumptions, projects that the fiscal deficit would in FY 2014/15 to hover around 12.3% of GDP due to lower exceptional inflows, ambitious constitutional spending targets, and full implementation of the minimum wage scheme. Over the medium term, a gradual fiscal consolidation path is assumed as economic activities are projected to rebound and as the implementation pace of intended corrective reforms gains some momentum. This would mainly include the introduction of a fullyfledged value added tax and phasing out of energy and food subsidies. Accordingly, the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP would potentially start to decline, albeit modestly, to record almost 11.5% in FY 2015/16. Average Headline inflation is projected to record low double-digit levels in the short term despite economic underperformance (hover around 10.8%), and will stabilize at around 10% in the following two years. It is noteworthy that the forecasted in average inflation rate in FY 2013/14 reflects an accommodative monetary policy by Central Bank of Egypt to stimulate domestic demand, persistence of supply bottlenecks, and continued lagged pass through effect of a weaker currency. Over the medium term, inflationary pressures would emanate from a rebound in economic activities, a weaker pound that would prompt a higher imports bill when denominated in domestic currency, sustained and gradual in fuel and electricity prices, projected in business costs due to higher taxes and streamlining of energy subsidies, and high international fuel prices. 2 The transferred government deposits relate to the utilization of grants transferred to Egypt back in early 1990s due to its participation in the second Gulf war. These grants were deposited as government deposits at CBE. Page 4

5 Fig Recently higher inflation is expected to prevail Dcode EFC, based on the respondents assumptions, projects a continuation in the resilient performance of remittances over the medium-term, albeit growing at muted rates than seen over the past three years. The still strong projected remittances inflows are justified by a favorable economic outlook in most oil-rich Gulf countries which represent a key source of remittances flowing into Egypt, as oil prices are projected to remain at high levels. Source: Central Bank of Egypt and Dcode EFC experts calculations. On the foreign ex front, the Egyptian Pound is expected to continue to depreciate against the USD to record EGP 7.25 by end of FY 2013/14, EGP 7.6 by June 2015 and EGP 7.95 by end of FY 2015/16. Overall, we forecast an improvement in external sector indicators over the short and medium terms on the backdrop of notable Gulf support and sustained depreciation of the Pound that would improve the competitiveness of Egypt s exports and restrain the non-oil imports bill. In the short term, Egyptian authorities will strive to utilize all potential and available external financing vehicles, including bilateral lending and grants, buying oil products from Gulf countries at relatively favorable terms, and tapping regional financial lending institutions. Over the medium term, the government might opt not to sign (or at least postpone) a formal Stand-by agreement with the IMF to avoid any strict conditionality and/or the labeling of corrective policy measures as not home-grown. Instead, it might utilize the IMF policy advisory services and technical support especially on the taxation and revenue mobilization fronts. Tourism receipts, according to the respondents assumptions, are expected to decline remarkably in FY 2013/14 in light of deteriorated security conditions, before gradually rebounding as security conditions partially improve. The projected gradual recovery in the tourism sector reflects slightly higher tourist arrivals and average spending by tourists. On the other hand, concerns over adverse security conditions and poor public safety, particularly in the transportation sector, can hinder prospects of a much stronger rebound that would allow tourism to boom and record exceptionally high growth rates over the medium-term. Source: Dcode EFC experts calculations. 2013/ / /16 minal GDP (EGP bn) 2, , ,621.6 Real Growth Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Overall Deficit (As % of GDP) 11.8% 12.3% 11.5% Annual Inflation Rate (%) EGP per USD (Period Average) Net International Reserves (USD mn, end of period) 17,666 18,279 20,705 Balance of Payment (USD mn) 3, ,503 Page 5

6 Survey Results: International Assumptions Fig. 1 International Oil Prices Fig. 2 International Commodity Prices 57% 30% decrease 13% 83% 17% Fig. 3 Global Economy Fig. 4 Syria Crises shrink 9% 22% resolve 26% 44% grow 69% escalate 30% Fig. 5 Middle East Peace Process move ahead 26% deterior ate 22% 52%

7 Domestic Political Assumptions Fig. 6 Constitution Referendum Fig. 7 Referendum Result take place as scheduled 100% Majority yes 100% Fig. 8 Opposition's demonstrations Fig. 9 Violence and attacks 30% fade away Stay the same 52% Stay the same decrease 13% Fig. 10 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections Presidentia l will precede parliament ary 78% Parliament ary will take place first 22% Page 7

8 Domestic Economic Assumptions Fig. 11 Gulf Aid Fig. 12 Suez Canal Receipts 57% Stay the same (no new assistance) 43% 57% Stay the same 39% decrease 4% Fig. 13 Remittances Fig. 14 Energy Subsidies decrease 30% Stay the same be lifted 61% 39% Fig. 15 Commodity Subsidies Fig. 16 Taxes 39% 39% be lifted 61% be raised 61% Page 8

9 Economic International Relations Fig. 17 IMF Deal Fig. 18 Relations with the US halt 65% be reached worsen 17% get better 39% 44% Fig. 19 Relations with the EU worsen 13% 26% get better 61% Page 9

10 Disclaimer While the highest professional standards were used to generate the forecasts included in this report, the scenarios and assumptions upon which such forecasts were developed remain subject to significant uncertainty. Dcode Economic and Financial Consulting does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. Dcode Economic and Financial Consulting specifically disclaims all warranties express or implied with respect to the use of this information or any results with respect thereto. In addition, the information/forecasts contained herein shall in no way be construed to constitute a recommendation by Dcode Economic and Financial Consulting with respect to the business decisions of the client.

11 Advice is judged by results not intentions Address: 166 Al-Showayfat St., Bouri Square, New Cairo Website: Page 11

Economic ProjEctions for

Economic ProjEctions for Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010)

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010) April 30, 2010 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2010) The Bank's View 1 The global economy has emerged from the sharp deterioration triggered by the financial crisis and has

More information

Egypt 2018 Macro Update

Egypt 2018 Macro Update An Economic Transformation in Action Egypt 2018 Macro Update December 10, 2017 Suffering from major macroeconomic imbalances over the last five years, the Egyptian government initiated an ambitious wide-scale

More information

Developments in inflation and its determinants

Developments in inflation and its determinants INFLATION REPORT February 2018 Summary Developments in inflation and its determinants The annual CPI inflation rate strengthened its upward trend in the course of 2017 Q4, standing at 3.32 percent in December,

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report III/2018) Meeting with Analysts Karel Musil Prague, 3 August 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

Key Highlights of this Report

Key Highlights of this Report AfDB This report is the second of a series of Economic Quarterly Reviews on Egypt by the African Development Bank s Country Office in Egypt. It covers Egypt s economic performance up to September 2012

More information

Economic Projections For 2014 And 2015

Economic Projections For 2014 And 2015 Economic Projections For 2014 And 2015 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2014:3, pp. 77-81 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2014 AND 2015 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic

More information

Economic Projections :3

Economic Projections :3 Economic Projections 2018-2020 2018:3 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2018-2020 The Central Bank s latest projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to remain

More information

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key 5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key Macroeconomic Indicators for 2016 2018 The BNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators is based on the information published as of 17 June 2016. ECB, EC and

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS ECONOMICS RESEARCH CENTRE. January 2017 SUMMARY. Issue 17/1

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS ECONOMICS RESEARCH CENTRE. January 2017 SUMMARY. Issue 17/1 SUMMARY UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS The expansion of real economic activity in Cyprus is expected to continue in 2017 at rates similar to those registered in 2016. Real GDP is forecasted to have increased by

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014)

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) April 30, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace

More information

Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey

Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the April

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 10 th May Opening Remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 10 th May Opening Remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 10 th May 2018 Opening Remarks by the Governor Three months ago, the MPC said that an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the next few years would be appropriate

More information

Economic Projections :2

Economic Projections :2 Economic Projections 2018-2020 2018:2 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2018-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to

More information

Viet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20

Viet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20 Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and

More information

DECEMBER 2015 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1

DECEMBER 2015 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 DECEMBER 2015 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 1. EURO AREA OUTLOOK: OVERVIEW AND KEY FEATURES The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue. Real GDP is

More information

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Autumn 2017 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria The Autumn macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Finance takes into account better performance of the Bulgarian economy

More information

SOUTH ASIA. Chapter 2. Recent developments

SOUTH ASIA. Chapter 2. Recent developments SOUTH ASIA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS January 2014 Chapter 2 s GDP growth rose to an estimated 4.6 percent in 2013 from 4.2 percent in 2012, but was well below its average in the past decade, reflecting

More information

Executive Directors welcomed the continued

Executive Directors welcomed the continued ANNEX IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD DISCUSSION OF THE OUTLOOK, AUGUST 2006 The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board s discussion of the World Economic Outlook

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014)

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014) October 31, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a

More information

Monetary Policy Committee s Decision 8/2017

Monetary Policy Committee s Decision 8/2017 No. 66/2017 Monetary Policy Committee s Decision 8/2017 Mr. Jaturong Jantarangs, Secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), announced the outcome of the meeting on 20 December 2017 as follows. The

More information

Finland falling further behind euro area growth

Finland falling further behind euro area growth BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,

More information

Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy

Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy 1. Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy The Thai economy expanded by slightly less than the previous projection due to weaker-than-anticipated

More information

Economic Projections for

Economic Projections for Economic Projections for 2015-2017 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:3, pp. 86-91 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2015-2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic projections

More information

Economic projections

Economic projections Economic projections 2017-2020 December 2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The pace of economic activity in Malta has picked up in 2017. The Central Bank s latest economic

More information

Towards Sustainability & Inclusion; To Leave No One Behind

Towards Sustainability & Inclusion; To Leave No One Behind Improving the Concurrent Status & Building-up/ Securing the Future Towards Sustainability & Inclusion; To Leave No One Behind 1 Why Egypt 1. Central Location with strategic Trade Agreements: Egypt has

More information

KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016

KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016 KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016 Introduction Following the success of strong macroeconomic policy adjustments

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2018) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 4 May 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016

SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016 SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016 Higher foreign reserves and lower financing needs following the debt restructuring in 2015 have reduced external vulnerability. In addition,

More information

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 27.7.2016 SWD(2016) 263 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Analysis by the Commission services of the budgetary situation in Spain following the adoption of the COUNCIL

More information

Why Devaluation is Not Going to Solve it All

Why Devaluation is Not Going to Solve it All Why Devaluation is Not Going to Solve it All Beyond the imminent EGP/USD adjustment According to government officials, Egypt has secured the USD6 billion required by the IMF to close the funding gap in

More information

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected

More information

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS. Risk of external debt distress:

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS. Risk of external debt distress: May 24, 218 STAFF REPORT FOR THE 218 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Risk of external debt distress: Augmented by significant risks stemming from domestic public and/or private external

More information

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014 OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report I/2018) Meeting with Analysts Tomáš Holub Prague, 2 February 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

Economic outlook 1. May 2017

Economic outlook 1. May 2017 Economic outlook 1 May 2017 1 This document includes forecasts that represent assumptions and expectations of the Centrale Bank van Aruba (CBA) in light of currently available information. These forecasts

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS ECONOMICS RESEARCH CENTRE. October Issue 15/4

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS ECONOMICS RESEARCH CENTRE. October Issue 15/4 SUMMARY UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS ISSN 1986-1001 The recovery of economic activity in Cyprus is forecasted to continue in the following quarters. Real GDP growth for 2015 is projected at 1.3%. Real output is

More information

Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)

Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) Ministry of Finance The purpose of this document is to identify the optimal medium term debt management strategy for the Fiscal Years (FY) 2015-16 through 2017-18

More information

Market volatility to continue

Market volatility to continue How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?

More information

Egypt in 2017: The Second Year on the Road of Reform

Egypt in 2017: The Second Year on the Road of Reform BLOMINVEST BANK January 23, 2018 Contact Information Head of Research: Marwan Mikhael Research Analyst: Riwa Daou Junior Analyst: Rouba Chbeir Research Assistant: Dina Antonios The Egyptian economy witnessed

More information

Medium Term Macroeconomic Framework, Fiscal Strategy and Debt Management Strategy - continued

Medium Term Macroeconomic Framework, Fiscal Strategy and Debt Management Strategy - continued MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK The Macroeconomic Framework has been formulated taking into account the objective of Government to usher in a new phase of high economic growth with shared prosperity and enhanced

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Projections for the Portuguese Economy:

Projections for the Portuguese Economy: Projections for the Portuguese Economy: 2018-2020 March 2018 BANCO DE PORTUGAL E U R O S Y S T E M BANCO DE EUROSYSTEM PORTUGAL Projections for the portuguese economy: 2018-20 Continued expansion of economic

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Third Meeting April 16, 2016 IMFC Statement by Angel Gurría Secretary-General The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) IMF

More information

Mauritius Economy Update January 2015

Mauritius Economy Update January 2015 January 19, 2015 Economics Mauritius Economy Update January 2015 Overview - Mauritian economy has been witnessing a persistent moderation in growth since 2010 due to weak economic activity in Euro Zone,

More information

Governor's Statement No. 7 October 13, Statement by the Hon. AHMED NASEER,

Governor's Statement No. 7 October 13, Statement by the Hon. AHMED NASEER, Governor's Statement No. 7 October 13, 2017 Statement by the Hon. AHMED NASEER, Governor of the Fund for MALDIVES Statement by the Hon. Ahmed Naseer, Governor of the Fund for Maldives Mr. Chairman, Mr.

More information

Decoding the Egyptian Economy 1 August 2013 Edition. August 2013

Decoding the Egyptian Economy 1 August 2013 Edition. August 2013 August 2013 Decoding the Egyptian Economy 1 Preface The profound and rapid developments in Egypt since the January 25 th revolution and the uncertainty of the new political landscape have triggered a need

More information

EGYPT Affordable Mortgage Finance Program Development Policy Loan (Loan No EG) Release of the Second Tranche Full Compliance

EGYPT Affordable Mortgage Finance Program Development Policy Loan (Loan No EG) Release of the Second Tranche Full Compliance Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized EGYPT Affordable Mortgage Finance Program Development Policy Loan (Loan No. 7747-EG)

More information

Jordan Country Brief 2011

Jordan Country Brief 2011 Jordan Country Brief 2011 CONTEXT The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is an upper middle income country with a population of 6 million and a per-capita GNI of US $4,390. Jordan s natural resources are potash

More information

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST Q2 2010 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1 813 25 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: Monetary Policy Department +421 2 5787 2611 +421

More information

I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T

I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T M A R C H 1 ... wise is the man who can put purpose to his desires. Miklós Zrínyi: The Life of Matthias Corvinus I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T M A R C H 1 Published by the

More information

Assessment of the 2017 convergence programme for. Bulgaria

Assessment of the 2017 convergence programme for. Bulgaria EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Brussels, 23 May 2017 Assessment of the 2017 convergence programme for Bulgaria (Note prepared by DG ECFIN staff) 1 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION...

More information

Egypt's Economy: The Agony Continues

Egypt's Economy: The Agony Continues Editors: Paul Rivlin and Brandon Friedman Vol. 6, No. 7 July 31, 2016 Egypt's Economy: The Agony Continues Paul Rivlin With the expansion of the Suez Canal in August 2015, and the discovery of large reserves

More information

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Spring 17 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria Bulgarian economy is expected to expand by 3% in 17 driven by domestic demand. As compared to 16, the external sector will

More information

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND SECOND REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY SUPPORT INSTRUMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND SECOND REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY SUPPORT INSTRUMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS November 19, 214 RWANDA STAFF REPORT FOR THE 214 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND SECOND REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY SUPPORT INSTRUMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Approved By Roger Nord and Dan Ghura (IMF) and

More information

December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1

December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 Real GDP growth weakened unexpectedly in the third quarter of 2018, partly reflecting temporary production bottlenecks experienced

More information

Economic activity gathers pace

Economic activity gathers pace Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to

More information

THE WEEKLY ISSUE TH DECEMBER 2017 THE IMF COMPLETES THE SECOND REVIEW OF EGYPT S REFORM PROGRAM IN THIS ISSUE

THE WEEKLY ISSUE TH DECEMBER 2017 THE IMF COMPLETES THE SECOND REVIEW OF EGYPT S REFORM PROGRAM IN THIS ISSUE THE IMF COMPLETES THE SECOND REVIEW OF EGYPT S REFORM PROGRAM The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second review of Egypt s reform program. The completion of the review allows the authorities

More information

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 6 July 2016

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 6 July 2016 Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 6 July 2016 At the meeting, members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of macroeconomic

More information

MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS

MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS MUFG LATIN AMERICA TOPICS Mexico s Macroeconomic Performance: Q 217 GDP and Current Economic Indicators 1 APRIL 21 MUFG UNION BANK, N.A. ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NEW YORK) KAREN MARTINEZ Latin America Economist

More information

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NEPAL. Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NEPAL. Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NEPAL Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis

More information

CENTRAL BANK OF EGYPT

CENTRAL BANK OF EGYPT CENTRAL BANK OF EGYPT ECONOMIC REVIEW Vol. 46 No. 1 2005/2006 Research, Development and Publishing Sector This Review, issued in Arabic and English by the Research, Development and Publishing Sector, focuses

More information

Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014

Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014 Research Department Md. Rahmatullah Khan, Economic analyst Tel: +966 1 211 9319, khanmr@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabian economy Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014 Saudi Arabian

More information

Economic Projections :1

Economic Projections :1 Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to

More information

Revision of macroeconomic forecasts - November Dimitar Bogov Governor

Revision of macroeconomic forecasts - November Dimitar Bogov Governor Revision of macroeconomic forecasts - November 2017 - Dimitar Bogov Governor 2 November 2017 Contents : Change in risks between the two forecasts External assumptions Macroeconomic scenario for 2017-2019

More information

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key 5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key Macroeconomic Indicators for 2018 2020 The BNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators is based on data published as of 15 June 2018. ECB, EC and IMF assumptions

More information

Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016.

Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016. PRICE POINT February 2016 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Kenneth Orchard Portfolio

More information

QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW

QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW During 13 the Spanish economy moved on a gradually improving path that enabled it to exit the contractionary phase dating back to early 11. This came about

More information

Latest Macroeconomic Projections - May Vice-Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezhoska

Latest Macroeconomic Projections - May Vice-Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezhoska Latest Macroeconomic Projections - May 2018 - Vice-Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezhoska May, 4 2018 Contents Key assumptions on external and domestic environment Macroeconomic scenario 2018-2019 Comparison

More information

2016~17 Outlook for the Korean Economy

2016~17 Outlook for the Korean Economy 2016~17 Outlook for the Korean Economy October 2016 CHON, Sora (sora@kdi.re.kr) Korea Development Institute This report was prepared for the LINK meeting in fall 2016. The views expressed in this report

More information

PROGRAM-FOR-RESULTS INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) CONCEPT STAGE Report No.:

PROGRAM-FOR-RESULTS INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) CONCEPT STAGE Report No.: Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized PROGRAM-FOR-RESULTS INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) CONCEPT STAGE Report No.: 113653 Program

More information

Monthly Economic Insight

Monthly Economic Insight Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.

More information

JUNE 2014 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1

JUNE 2014 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 ARTICLE JUNE 2014 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 The economic recovery in the euro area is projected to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by increases

More information

Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis Update

Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis Update INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND DOMINICA Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis -218 Update Prepared by the staffs of the International

More information

Insolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017

Insolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017 Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.

More information

Outlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007

Outlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007 VOL2.NO.2 January 2007 Outlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007 Economic recovery surpasses Izanagi in length The economy is continuing its longest post-war economic recovery. Nearly five years have passed

More information

Country Risk Analysis

Country Risk Analysis SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS December 11, 2014 Analyst: Martin Carlens. Tel: +46-8-7639605. E-mail: martin.carlens@seb.se Economic growth has bottomed, sentiment is rising following the elections

More information

2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific

2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific 2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific REAL ASSETS REAL ESTATE INVESTING TEAM INVESTMENT INSIGHT 2017 The global macroeconomic landscape continues its shift away from highly accommodative

More information

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS May 1, 218 BANGLADESH STAFF REPORT FOR THE 218 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Approved By Kenneth Kang and Kevin Fletcher (IMF) and John Panzer (IDA) Prepared by International Monetary

More information

Statement by Olli-Pekka Lehmussaari, Executive Director for the Republic of Estonia June 30, 2000

Statement by Olli-Pekka Lehmussaari, Executive Director for the Republic of Estonia June 30, 2000 Statement by Olli-Pekka Lehmussaari, Executive Director for the Republic of Estonia June 30, 2000 Let me start by thanking the staff on behalf of my Estonian authorities and myself for their dedication

More information

Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis February 15, 2012

Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis February 15, 2012 Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis February 15, 2012 Since the fifth review, a number of developments have pointed to a need to revise the DSA. The 2011 outturn was worse than expected, both

More information

Czech monetary policy: On a way to neutral interest rates

Czech monetary policy: On a way to neutral interest rates Czech monetary policy: On a way to neutral interest rates Petr Král Deputy Executive Director Monetary Department Czech & Hungary Investor Day London, 14 November 2018 Current economic situation 2 Structure

More information

PRE BUDGET OUTLOOK. Ottawa, Canada 17 April 2015 [Revised 24 April 2015] dpb.gc.ca

PRE BUDGET OUTLOOK. Ottawa, Canada 17 April 2015 [Revised 24 April 2015]  dpb.gc.ca Ottawa, Canada 17 April 2015 [Revised 24 April 2015] www.pbo dpb.gc.ca The mandate of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) is to provide independent analysis to Parliament on the state of the nation

More information

THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND PLANNING

THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND PLANNING THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND PLANNING MEDIUM TERM DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY DECEMBER, 2017 1 Table of Contents List of Charts... 3 List of Tables... 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION... 4 2.0

More information

The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016

The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover A. Update on the economic situation

More information

MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Directorate of Debt Management and Economic Cooperation

MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Directorate of Debt Management and Economic Cooperation MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS A S D DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS 2015 Directorate of Debt Management and Economic Cooperation Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES... 2 LIST OF FIGURES... 2 LIST

More information

Equity Research - Lebanese Banks - Q3/15 Preview

Equity Research - Lebanese Banks - Q3/15 Preview EQUITY RESEARCH LEBANESE BANKS - October Q3/15 PREVIEW 13, 2015 1 Equity Research - Lebanese Banks - Q3/15 Preview Domestic banking sector deposits grew +5% YoY in July 2015 supported by non-residents

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany Strong

More information

Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts

Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts 2017 Quarter 1 Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Forecast summary The Northern Ireland economy enjoyed a solid performance in 2016 with overall growth of 1.5%, the strongest rate of growth

More information

KENYA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE: JULY 2016

KENYA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE: JULY 2016 KENYA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE: JULY 2016 18 th July 2016 OUTLOOK: POSITIVE GROWTH EXPECTATIONS DESPITE VOLATILE EXOGENOUS SHOCKS Building on our previous report, Kenya Macroeconomic Outlook: 2016, we maintain

More information

REMARKS BY JAVIER GUZMÁN CALAFELL, DEPUTY GOVERNOR AT THE BANCO DE MÉXICO, ON MEXICO S MONETARY POLICY AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.

REMARKS BY JAVIER GUZMÁN CALAFELL, DEPUTY GOVERNOR AT THE BANCO DE MÉXICO, ON MEXICO S MONETARY POLICY AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. REMARKS BY JAVIER GUZMÁN CALAFELL, DEPUTY GOVERNOR AT THE BANCO DE MÉXICO, ON MEXICO S MONETARY POLICY AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. THE UNITED STATES-MEXICO CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, NORTHEAST CHAPTER. February 15-16,

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

Czech Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook

Czech Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook IMF/WB Annual Meetings 17 Czech Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook Vladimir TOMSIK Vice-Governor Czech National Bank Bank of America Merril Lynch Symposium and JPMorgan Investor Seminar 13 1 October

More information

CÔTE D'IVOIRE. Approved by Dominique Desruelle and Daria Zakharova (IMF); and Paloma Anos-Casero (IDA) November 21, 2017

CÔTE D'IVOIRE. Approved by Dominique Desruelle and Daria Zakharova (IMF); and Paloma Anos-Casero (IDA) November 21, 2017 CÔTE D'IVOIRE November 21, 217 SECOND REVIEWS UNDER AN ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY AND THE EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED FUND FACILITY DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Approved

More information

INFLATION REPORT / I 015 2

INFLATION REPORT / I 015 2 INFLATION REPORT / I 5 INFLATION REPORT / I FOREWORD In 998, the Czech National Bank switched to inflation targeting. In the inflation targeting regime, the central bank s communication with the public

More information

Governor's Statement No. 33 October 10, Statement by the Hon. MAREK BELKA, Governor of the Bank for THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND

Governor's Statement No. 33 October 10, Statement by the Hon. MAREK BELKA, Governor of the Bank for THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND Governor's Statement No. 33 October 10, 2014 Statement by the Hon. MAREK BELKA, Governor of the Bank for THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND 2014 Annual Meetings Statement by the Hon. Marek Belka Governor of the Bank

More information

Slovenia. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands

Slovenia. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Activity to remain solid this year, after growing 2.4% in 214 Published in collaboration with Highlights n GDP grew by 2.4% in 214 and 3% in Q1 215,

More information