THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF BREXIT IN

Transcription

1 THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF BREXIT IN 2018

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS The most newsworthy word of recent years? What are employers doing about Brexit in 2018? No burning desire to abandon Blighty A lack of confidence in the Government s ability to manage Brexit Should there be a 2nd referendum? Only time will tell what Brexit holds for UK professionals Let us know your thoughts

3 THE MOST NEWSWORTHY WORD OF RECENT YEARS Some months after the 2016 decision to leave the European Union was made, it was agreed that the word Brexit should be added to the Oxford English dictionary. Many believe it to be coined from the word Grexit, which was used to describe the potential withdrawal of Greece from the Eurozone monetary union some years earlier. Who would have thought that over 400 years on from when the dictionary was first invented, its latest 6-letter addition would have such a profound impact on the country, and undoubtedly, British history for years to come. Breakdown of respondents by sector Commerce & Industry 17% Other 21% In the final few months of 2016, Morgan McKinley surveyed a cross section of the working population to assess their thoughts on the decision to leave the EU. Of circa 5,000 individuals who completed the survey, 68% felt that the outcome was not the right one for the UK. Professional Services 26% Fast forward to the present day and Morgan McKinley has completed a follow up survey to gauge the thoughts of the UK working population a year and a half on from the referendum. This time, over 7,000 completed the survey, again encompassing a range of professionals at all levels, from sectors including Banking and Financial Services (36%), Professional Services (26%) and those in Commerce and Industry (17%). The 21% of Others, ranged from the Public Sector, covering areas such as Education, Health, the Civil Service and Charity/NFP, as well as other sectors including Retail and Construction. Banking & Financial 36% Despite a UK wide audience, 64% of respondents live in London or the South East. The majority of the Others (16%) were in fact UK nationals, originally registered with UK addresses, but have since relocated to live and work in the EU. As a result of this, it is no surprise that 69% still feel that it was not the right decision to break up the union with Europe. In fact, 77% of those were year olds, although the percentage fell as the age brackets increased. 01

4 WHAT ARE EMPLOYERS DOING ABOUT BREXIT IN 2018? With only a few months having passed following the 2016 referendum, 48% said at the time that their businesses had no intention of relocating abroad (either in parts or in its entirety). When asked if they themselves would consider relocating, 38% would not consider this at all. Has your employer made any serious adjustments or plans to account for the uncertainty, including relocation of parts of the business? When surveyed in 2018, 50% stated that their employer had not made any adjustments or plans to account for any uncertainty including relocation. Of that group, 25% work in Commerce and Industry, 38% in Banking and Financial Services, 36% in Professional Services and 1% in Other. The largest group to see their businesses already executing contingency plans was within the Banking and Financial Services community, of which 41% said plans were already in play. Not sure 20% Yes 30% 40% 38% 36% 30% 20% 25% 10% 1% No 50% 0% Banking & Financial Services Commerce & Industry Professional Services Other 02

5 NO BURNING DESIRE TO ABANDON BLIGHTY When asked about relocating to other jurisdictions, there was a 3% increase from before in those rejecting this option (41%). Only 37% indicated they would move if asked, with 22% unsure at this stage. As expected, the number of those not willing to move abroad rose as the age groups increased. With regards to specific locations, USA and Dublin ranked highest overall (18% each) in terms of preferable countries to move to. Within the Banking community specifically, USA (18%) was preferred to Dublin (16%). In the Commerce sector, 20% chose Dublin over the USA (17%) whilst within Professional Services, 20% again chose Dublin over the USA (17%). Given the option, and assuming you are able to transfer with new regulations, which international location would be preferable for a move? US 18% Frankfurt 8% It is no secret that a number of European countries have been lobbying UK based corporations to consider transferring their legal entities over. Interestingly, finance specialists selected Luxembourg as their least favorite (5%), with Paris (10%) just edging ahead of Frankfurt (9%), yet both were still behind AsiaPac (11%). Aside from other suggested locations such as Canada, Middle East, Zurich and Italy, 54% of Others simply referenced moving within the UK as their preferred choice over and above relocating abroad. Paris Madrid Luxembourg Amsterdam 3% 7% 9% 10% Dublin 18% Asia-Pacific 10% Other 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 03

6 A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE GOVERNMENT S ABILITY TO MANAGE BREXIT Interestingly, Morgan McKinley s own survey showed that only 13% felt extremely confident, whilst a majority of 87% had little or no confidence that the Government was able to follow through with negotiations that will support a transition in favour of the British people. Lord Kerr, who drafted Article 50, has stated previously that the specifics of the EU treaty would allow the UK to change its mind up to the moment of leaving. Are you confident in the Government s ability to follow through with negotiations that will help the transition? Not sure 19% Yes 13% One individual taking part in the survey quoted the whole run-up to Brexit was rife with outright untruths and manipulation of the public. I feel the UK public is absolutely entitled to another referendum on that basis, but the EU is well within its rights to not accept the outcome. As an EEA national working in the UK, my future position is very unsure, and as a multilingual professional working within a highly international company based in the UK, Brexit could have devastating ramifications for both employees and the future of the business. There are numerous examples of professionals already exiting the UK and returning back to their home nations. Another said I have already relocated due to losing faith in the UK s government to secure a deal that favours us citizens. No 68% The whole run-up to Brexit was rife with outright untruths and manipulation of the public. I feel the UK public is absolutely entitled to another referendum on that basis, but the EU is well within its rights to not accept the outcome. As an EEA national working in the UK, my future position is very unsure, and as a multilingual professional working within a highly international company based in the UK, Brexit could have devastating ramifications for both employees and the future of the business. 04

7 SHOULD THERE BE A 2ND REFERENDUM? When asked if there should be the possibility of a second referendum, 58% voted in favour of this. All age groups indicated that they felt more inclined for another vote to determine the UK s future. One person quoted a second referendum is vital. The first referendum was run like a general election, with all the lies, duplicity and false promises. But general elections come around every few years so wrongs can be righted, or stances can be changed. Brexit is a huge multi-generational decision that will affect Great Britain for the next 50 years. It deserves a final and informed vote by the people. Someone who can set about offering this option is the UK s Prime Minister, Theresa May. Many speculate whether or not a follow up referendum to give voters a final say on the EU exit package is even feasible. But polls already show that a number of voters would prefer the continuation of the EU membership on the basis that their own reasonable expectations for Brexit have not yet been realised. Do you think the UK should be entitled to another referendum? Not sure 9% No 33% Yes 58% 05

8 ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHAT BREXIT HOLDS FOR UK PROFESSIONALS Whatever your stance on Brexit, the results show an even mix of opinions in relation to the future of post-brexit Britain. 45% have concerns about their own future, whilst 46% don t think it will be a problem. This was evident in the comments offered, where there is divided opinion on whether the UK should leave the EU, and how the UK will perform in the global landscape should a hard or soft Brexit be applied. Only a relatively small proportion of of those surveyed were not sure of the outcome (9%). It is evident that 20 months on from the vote, there is still no clear strategy around Brexit. As a result, many businesses are finding it difficult to plan ahead and bring on additional staff in case they overhire or face challenges further down the line by employing EU citizens. Smaller businesses are unified in saying they are very worried as a hard brexit will result in insurmountable additional costs and requirements for firms, which in effect would mean many businesses may fold. Are you concerned for the future of your position or company in post-brexit Britain? Not sure 9% Yes 45% More and more EU residents are also returning to their home nations, which is in turn sparking a brain drain in certain sectors. One respondent added I have accepted a job in the continent to skip uncertainty and to avoid facing recession in UK. I ll move abroad this March as I wanted to be part of the first wave of Brexodus to be able to pick the best opportunity in the continent where the EU economy is growing. Extremely sad to leave my happy life in London, but that was the only wise move to do now. On the flip side, however, others highlight more positive sentiments, believing the country will prosper as the UK economy is far more robust and resilient than many people realise. So in the long term, UK PLC will thrive outside of the EU. Similarly, another wrote the nation voted for Brexit, so we should get on with it. Britain will once again thrive as we will have the ability to trade globally and not stay strangled to a failing, undemocratic European Union. No 46% Either way, we are in for a long and drawn out process that could generate a few more new words for the Oxford English dictionary. 06

9 LET US KNOW YOUR THOUGHTS HAKAN ENVER MANAGING DIRECTOR T: E: SURVEY DETAILS Between and , the survey was completed by 7,398 individuals that live or have lived in the UK. Questions were answered online with an 89% completion rate when the survey was sent via to Morgan McKinley s database that consists of both employers and employees across various professional sectors. 07

10 CONTACT US Morgan McKinley 61 Aldwych London WC2B 4AE +44 (0) morganmckinley.co.uk