China Cement Weekly. June 22, 2015 Meaningful Progress Emerged in Sector Consolidation; Low PBR Stocks Becoming Rare. China Cement Sector

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1 China Cement Weekly June 22, 2015 Meaningful Progress Emerged in Sector Consolidation; Low PBR Stocks Becoming Rare China Cement Sector Cement prices largely flat last week. Average cement price (nationwide) was flat week-on -week (WoW) to RMB262/tonne last week. Cement prices in Nantong, Suzhou and Mianyang dropped by RMB10~15/tonne, while prices in Liuan and Guangyuan were up by RMB10/tonne. Further downside seems limited for most players, while regions with relatively higher price may still see some downside, including Heilongjiang, Fujian, Hubei and Guangxi. Average inventory level (nation-wide) rose slightly to 77.15% last week. Coal prices continued to remain stable last week. Comprehensive average price index for Bohai-Rim Steam Coal (Q5K) remained flat last week at RMB418/tonne. But the index was 21.1% lower on year-on-year (YoY) basis. Meaningful progress emerged in sector consolidation. Anhui Conch [914.HK; HOLD] has accelerated its consolidation step in Jiangxi province. It recently announced that the board approved the acquisition of cement, clinker production line and related assets of Shengta Group in Jiangxi Province with annual clinker capacity of 4.8mt. The company would set up a JV with Qianzhou investment firm (found by the shareholder of Shengta Group) to complete the acquisition procedure. The JV would have registered capital of RMBm, of which Anhui Conch owns % stake. This would help lift the company s market influence in the region. On the other hand, West China Cement [2233.HK] announced that it would issue 903m new shares (16.67% of enlarged share capital) to Anhui Conch at HK$1.69 per share (about 1.2x PBR and slightly below the price (HK$1.7) before trading suspension). Immediate financial impact may be tiny for Anhui Conch as 16.67% stake is not enough for consolidating results into P&L. But as we have often stressed, investors should pay attention to Asia Cement [743.HK] and Sinoma [1893.HK], as low PBR cement stocks with M&A angle are becoming rare now. TCCI [1136.HK] is also deep below book value but corporate action is unlikely to happen in the near term before its rights issue completion. Nevin Ning Analyst (852) nevinning@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man Head of Research (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk Cement stocks under our coverage down 5.3% last week. The best performer was CNBM [3323.HK; BUY], down 4%. Anhui Conch [914.HK; HOLD] was the weakest one, down 10.9%, largely due to the panic selling of Anhui Conch-A, which lost 15% last week. Valuation Table Sources: Company, Bloomberg, CGIHK Research estimates PER (x) PBR (x) EV/EBITDA(x) Net debt/equity (%) Company Ticker Rating Price (HK$) Market cap (US$m) E 2016E E 2016E E 2016E 2015E Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity HOLD , CNBM 3323 HK Equity BUY , BBMG 9 HK Equity BUY , CR Cement 1313 HK Equity HOLD , Shanshui Cement 691 HK Equity SELL , Simple average Weighted average EPS Growth (%) E PEG(x) ROE (%) Dividend yield (%) Company Ticker 2015E 2016E CAGR (%) 2015E E 2016E E 2016E Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity (14.6) 3.1 (6.2) (2.1) CNBM 3323 HK Equity (5.7) CR Cement 1313 HK Equity (12.5) (3.2) (8.0) (1.0) BBMG 9 HK Equity Shanshui Cement 691 HK Equity Simple average (0.2) Weighted average (4.1) (0.6)

2 Peer Comparison Market cap PER (x) PBR (x) EV/EBITDA(x) Company Ticker Rating Price (LC) (US$m) E 2016E E 2016E E 2016E Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity HOLD , CNBM 3323 HK Equity BUY , BBMG 9 HK Equity BUY , CR Cement 1313 HK Equity HOLD , Shanshui Cement 691 HK Equity SELL , TCC International 1136 HK Equity NR , China National Materials 1893 HK Equity NR , Asia Cement 743 HK Equity NR West China Cement 2233 HK Equity NR Tianrui Cement 1252 HK Equity NR 3. 1, n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. 8.2 n.a. n.a. Simple average Weighted average Sources: Bloomberg, CGIHK Research 1-Year Relative Performance Sources: Capital IQ, CGIHK Research 2

3 Figure 1: Regional Cement Price National Average (P.O. 42.5) Northeast China South Central China North China East China Southwest China Northwest China

4 Figure 2: Cement Prices in Major Cities (1) Beijing 0 Tianjing Shijiazhuang, Hebei Taiyuan, Shanxi Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Shenyang, Liaoning Changchun, Jilin Harbin, Heilongjiang 4

5 Figure 3: Cement Prices in Major Cities (2) Shanghai 0 0 Nanjing, Jiangsu 0 Hangzhou, Zhejiang Hefei, Anhui 0 Fuzhou, Fujian Nanchang, Jiangxi Jinan, Shandong Zhengzhou, Henan 5

6 Figure 4: Cement Prices in Major Cities (3) Wuhan, Hubei Changsha, Hunan Guangzhou, Guangdong Nanning, Guangxi Haikou, Hainan 0 Chengdu, Sichuan Chongqing Guiyang, Guizhou

7 Figure 5: Cement Prices in Major Cities (4) Kunming, Yunnan Xi'an, Shaanxi Lanzhou, Gansu Xining, Qinghai Yinchuan, Ningxia Ü rümchi, Xinjiang 0 0 7

8 Figure 6: Cement Prices (June 19) (RMB/Tonne) 8

9 9 Figure 7: Cement Inventory Level (%) National Average 85 North China Northeast China East China South Central China 85 Southwest China 85 Northwest China

10 Figure 8: Clinker Capacity Breakdown by Region (2014) Anhui Conch CNBM CR Cement Shanshui BBMG TCCI Asia Cement WCC Sinoma Group Jidong Huaxin 0914.HK 3323.HK 1313.HK 0691.HK 9.HK 1136.HK 0743.HK 2233.HK CH 01.CH East China Anhui 39.3% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% Fujian 0.0% 1.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jiangsu 2.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Jiangxi 2.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% Shandong 0.9% 11.4% 0.0% 53.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% Zhejiang 1.7% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Shanghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 46.6% 42.4% 11.9% 53.7% 0.0% 8.7% 43.0% 0.0% 14.0% 3.2% 0.0% South Central China Guangdong 6.2% 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 3.5% Guangxi 8.8% 1.5% 42.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hainan 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hunan 10.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 2.2% 16.5% Hubei 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.5% Henan 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 2.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% Total 25.7% 14.4%.9% 2.4% 4.8% 49.0% 23.3% 0.0% 12.3% 2.2%.0% North China Beijing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tianjin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hebei 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 61.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.4% 0.0% Shanxi 0.0% 0.8% 7.9% 15.9% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Inner Mongolia 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 10.3% 0.0% Total 0.0% 5.3% 7.9% 25.3% 92.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3%.8% 0.0% Northeast China Heilongjiang 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jilin 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% Liaoning 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% Total 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 15.8% 2.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Southwest China Chongqing 2.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 3.5% Sichuan 4.8% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 33.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% Guizhou 7.9% 7.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Yunnan 3.3% 6.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% Tibet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% Total 18.6% 30.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 38.9% 33.7% 4.4% 0.0% 7.2% 20.0% Northwest China Gansu 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 0.0% 0.0% Shaanxi 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 78.8% 1.8% 18.1% 0.0% Qinghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% Ningxia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% Xinjiang 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% Total 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95.6% 68.4% 18.1% 0.0% Grand Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Note: The largest regional exposure of each company is highlighted in yellow. Sources: Digital Cement, China Cement Association, CGIHK Research 10

11 Figure 9: Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2014) 2014 Anhui Conch CNBM CR Cement Shanshui BBMG TCCI Asia Cement WCC Sinoma Group Jidong Huaxin 0914.HK 3323.HK 1313.HK 0691.HK 9.HK 1136.HK 0743.HK 2233.HK CH 01.CH East China Anhui 51.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% Fujian 0.0% 6.2% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jiangsu 5.3% 26.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Jiangxi 7.3% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% Shandong 1.4% 32.0% 0.0% 28.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% Zhejiang 4.3%.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Shanghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 16.6% 25.7% 1.4% 6.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% South Central China Guangdong 13.2% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 1.9% Guangxi 23.1% 6.9% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hainan 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hunan 26.1% 30.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 2.1% 9.8% Hubei 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.6% Henan 0.0% 17.2% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% Total 11.6% 11.0% 10.5% 0.4% 0.4% 5.6% 1.2% 0.0% 2.7% 0.4% 8.9% North China Beijing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tianjin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hebei 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.4% 0.0% Shanxi 0.0% 3.7% 7.3% 14.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Inner Mongolia 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 10.9% 0.0% Total 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 6.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 18.7% 0.0% Northeast China Heilongjiang 0.0% 57.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jilin 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% Liaoning 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% 19.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% Total 0.0% 22.7% 0.0% 9.3% 0.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% Southwest China Chongqing 8.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 2.8% Sichuan 7.7% 36.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% Guizhou 17.3% 26.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Yunnan 6.6% 21.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% Tibet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% Total 9.7% 27.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 2.6% Northwest China Gansu 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.3% 0.0% 0.0% Shaanxi 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 2.6% 21.5% 0.0% Qinghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% Ningxia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.5% 0.0% 0.0% Xinjiang 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 32.8% 0.0% 0.0% Total 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 28.8% 6.1% 0.0% Grand Total 10.1% 17.1% 3.3% 3.2% 1.8% 2.6% 1.2% 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.5% Note: Market leader in each province is highlighted in yellow. Market leader is each region in highlighted in red. Sources: Digital Cement, China Cement Association, CGIHK Research 11

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