BUILDING AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS Capacity Building Seminar 10 to 12 September 2014

Transcription

1 BUILDING AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS 2014 Capacity Building Seminar 10 to 12 September 2014 SESSION NAME The building blocks of a commodity derivatives exchange SESSION DATE AND TIME 12 September, 11:00 SPEAKER(S) Speaker: Mr. Rod Gravelet-Blondin (Consultant: Capital Markets) OVERVIEW OF KEY THEMES Be clear about the purpose and objective you have in mind when setting up a commodities exchange. A commodities exchange is a means to an end and not an end in itself. Make sure all the necessary building blocks are in place before you start setting up a commodities exchange. If you start setting the exchange up to soon it is more likely to fail. Consult with all stakeholders before you set up a commodities exchange. Use the matrix provided in the session to assess whether it is feasible to set up a commodities exchange in your country and commodity market. SUMMARY OF SPEAKER POINTS The building blocks of a commodities exchange What are the building blocks of a commodities exchange? These blocks are the things which are necessary to develop a sustainable commodity derivatives market for your country. They may not be in place at present, but exchanges need to evaluate whether it would be feasible for the country to develop these blocks. The success of a commodities exchange depends on how effectively these building blocks are put in place. Many countries or exchanges see having a commodities exchange as an end in itself and believe that once the exchange is in place in place commodity prices will climb and development will take place. A commodities exchange is a means to an end and not the end itself and it is not enough to set up a commodities exchange in name alone. The correct building blocks need to be in place first for the exchange to function properly and really impact the commodity market. Physical vs derivatives exchange Some exchanges in Africa are investigating whether they should you move directly to creating a derivatives exchange or start with a physical exchange first from which the derivatives exchange can be developed. The building blocks for a physical and a derivatives exchange are very similar and developing 1

2 a physical market can ultimately help to develop the building blocks that are necessary for a derivatives market. In the case of a physical exchange the actual commodity is traded. The product is trading for the present buyers need the product now, for example to use in a mill. Traders in the futures market are not trading the actual product, they are trading an obligation. They have an obligation to deliver or receive the product at a certain date they are trading for the future. A derivatives market can move to delivery in the expiry month of the futures contract. In a young derivatives market beginning there is often a high percentage of contracts which move to delivery and are traded for eventual usage of the product. However, as the market develops and becomes more liquid this becomes percentage less and less until in a mature market only about 2% of the derivatives contracts traded end in physical delivery. This is because the objective of a derivatives exchange is fundamentally to manage price risk. The objective of a physical/spot exchange is having a price discovery mechanism so farmers in the region know what the price is. A physical exchange should also provide a means of secure settlement to ensure that farmers and buyers get what they are promised. This is an issue that many African countries need to address. A evaluation tool Rod Gravelet-Blondin facilitated the process set out below as a means to evaluate whether setting up a commodities exchange is feasible in a country and/or commodity market. This process of evaluation is meant to serve as tool exchanges can use to determine whether the buildings blocks needed to create a commodities exchange are in place firmly enough to begin setting up the exchange. The matrix included below serves as an example and was completed during the session. It summarises the views of the group of delegates who take part in the session. STEP 1: Identify the five most important building blocks of setting up either a physical commodities exchange or a derivatives exchange. These are the things you believe are necessary to be able to create a commodities exchange. They are things that a commodity exchange cannot do without. Examples identified during the group session included things like products to trade, market participants, policy, infrastructure and systems. STEP 2: Weight the five building blocks you have identified according to how you view their importance. Assign the weights by dividing 100 marks between the five blocks. For example, something you feel is very important can be assigned 40 marks and something not very important 10 marks. The marks assigned to each building block should add up to 100. STEP 3: Now that you have identified the importance of each building block, it can be unpacked further. This is done by asking four questions about each building block to clarify what it means. The questions 2

3 should identify the most important aspects needed to put this building block in place. For example, one of the building blocks identified may be market participants. Some of the questions about market participants may include: Are there willing sellers in the market? Are there willing buyers? Is there an institution willing to act as a market maker? Are there intermediaries? STEP 4: Once you have identified each of the four questions/requirements needed for every building block, weight each question according to its importance. When these weights are added together, they should total the weight you assigned to the building block in STEP 2. For example, if you assigned a weight of 20 out of a 100 to market participants as building block, the weights assigned to each question/requirement for market participants should total 20. STEP 5: Now you have a matrix with which to assess the readiness of your country to create a commodities exchange. Take this matrix to market participants, policy makers and other stakeholders across the entire spectrum of the agricultural or mining sector and gather their views. Ask each stakeholder to rate the current state of each of the four requirements that constitute your five building blocks. The rating should be given as a mark out of the weight you have assigned to that requirement. For example, you have identified market participants as a building block for a commodities exchange and assigned it a mark of 20 out of 100 to signify its importance. When you unpacked market participants you assigned the presence of intermediaries a mark of 5 out of 20 to signify its importance. This means that each stakeholder you consult should rate the current presence and efficiency of intermediaries in the market out of 5. Add up all of these individual ratings to get a mark out of 100 for each stakeholder. STEP 6: Finally, add the total scores (marks out 100) of all stakeholders and divide this total by number of stakeholders consulted to get an average mark out of a 100. If this final score is below 65 the country and market is not ready to set up a commodities exchange yet. Some of the building blocks need to be put in place or improved before the process of setting up the exchange can begin. For example, good infrastructure is a building block you can work and if policy is holding back the development of the exchange you start sensitizing policymakers to the operation of the exchange. Beware of starting a commodities exchange too early before the necessary building blocks are in place. Once you have worked on the building blocks you can re-evaluate using the same process as before. SUMMARY OF Q&A SESSION The importance of warehouses Warehouses are crucial to the functioning of a commodity exchange. It is not just the physical warehouses which are important but the management of the stock in the warehouses. A lot of stock is placed in warehouses only to be left to rot. This will help to solve the huge problem Africa has with post-harvest loss. 3

4 Political will There is a valuable role for government to make sure that the regulation of a commodities exchange is in place, but then it should step back. Politicians and policy makers should also be clear about what the purpose of a commodities exchange is. A commodities exchange cannot be created merely as an image building exercise. There is a lot of unfortunate political interference in commodity markets in many African countries. Politicians need to understand what a commercial commodities exchange can bring to the market. There are a lot of misconceptions about this. 4

5 BUILDING BLOCKS The Building Blocks of a Commodity Derivatives Exchange (Matrix as Determined by the Group Participation) Weighting Building Block A: PRODUCTS 30 of BB Weighting of Question 1. Availability Demand 7 3. Quality 5 4. Accessibility / Insurance 5 Building Block B: PARTICIPANTS Sellers 7,5 2. Buyers 7,5 3. Intermediaries 4,5 4. Knowledge 3 Building Block C: POLICY Legislation in place 4,5 2. Contractual obligations / enforcement 2,5 3. Government Support 3 4. Regulator 2,5 Building Block D: SYSTEMS Availability (settlement) 6 2. Efficiency 4,5 3. Transparency 2,25 4. Information dissemination 2,25 Building Block E: INFRASTRUCTURE Transport 6 2. Storage facilities 8 3. Storage management 4 5

6 4. Logistical support 2 Total