Market Value Before and After the Global Financial Crisis
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1 Market Value Before and After the Global Financial Crisis IPDSM Mexico Antanina Garanasvili & Georg von Graevenitz University of Padua Queen Mary, University of London Georg von IPSDM 2017
2 Questions Did the financial crisis change how firms manage IP? Did the financial crisis change how firms use of IP is valued? 2 Georg von IPSDM 2017
3 Literature Trends: Corrado and Hulten (2010) - intangibles matter Arora et al. (2015) - focus on D at expense of R Shock: Bloom (2009), Baker et al. (2016) - extended uncertainty Previous evidence: Nabar and Nicholas (2010) - Great Depression Framework: Hall et al. (2005) - decomposing impact of patents, citations Methods: Bloom et al. (2013) - IV approach to market value regression 3 Georg von IPSDM 2017
4 Literature - Market Value Studies Paper R&D Patents Cit. TM Sample Countries Years Griliches (84) YES USPTO NO NO 1,091 USA Megna and Klock (93) YES USPTO NO NO 11 USA Hall (98) YES USPTO NO NO 5,000 USA Blundell et al. (99) NO USPTO NO NO 340 UK Bloom and Van Reenen (02) NO USPTO YES NO 404 UK Toivanen et al. (02) YES NO NO NO 1,519 UK Hall, Jaffe and Trajtenberg (05) YES USPTO YES NO 1,982 USA Greenhalgh and Rogers (06) YES UK, EPO NO EUIPO 3,227 UK Hall and Oriani (06) YES NO NO NO 2,156 US, UK, FR, IT, DE Hall, Thoma and Torrisi (07) YES USPTO, EPO YES NO 7,168 Europe (21) Sandner and Block (11) YES EPO YES EUIPO 1,216 EU Thoma (15) YES USPTO, EPO NO USPTO 4,780 USA, Europe This study YES EPO YES EUIPO 563 BE, CA, CH, DE, FR, IL, NL, SG, US 4 Georg von IPSDM 2017
5 Did the financial crisis change use of IP? During crisis it was quickly apparent that applications were falling, what about renewals? (Patents lapsing / all patents at risk) by cohort Quarterly filings relative to 1996 peak Share of quarterly filings expiring this quarter Lehman Bros. collapse Patents lapsing year of lapse 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1 quarter Trademarks lapsing 5 Georg von IPSDM 2017
6 Sources of Data Firms: Basis: COR&DIP ( ) Extended: COMPUSTAT & AMADEUS Patents: PATSTAT via Dietmar Harhoff Trademarks: Direct from EUIPO via Nathan Wajsman & Michal Kazimierczak 6 Georg von IPSDM 2017
7 Constructing the data Problems: 1) Matching data (IP and firm information) 2) Selecting the sample What we did: 1) Matching partly solved by COR&DIP, but we expand this backwards using Derwent names (long do file) and manual checks. 2) Included all firms with at least 5 years of data on R&D and operating expenditure before Georg von IPSDM 2017
8 Regression model & analysis steps We estimate a simple Cobb-Douglas version of the market value equation based on Hall et al. (2005): ln V = ln q + (1 α) ln Assets + β R ln R&D Assets + β P ln P atents R&D + β C ln Citations P atents + β O ln Opp.Ex. Assets + β M ln Marks Opp.Ex. + ɛ (1) Estimated by OLS and then IV (GMM) instrumenting P atents R&D and lagging all other ratios apart from Citations P atents. Instruments: Change in focus across technology areas, median age of granted patents, delay 8 Georg von IPSDM 2017
9 Variables R&D stock, operating expenditure constructed using 15% depreciation rate Patent stocks (applied/granted) constructed using information on renewal payments Citation stocks constructed: i) using 15% depreciation rate (Disc. flow) ii) using only patents still upheld (Stock) Our approach to patent and citation stocks differs from Hall et al. (2005) in that we separate applications and grants and we identify patents that are still active. We do not depreciate active patents. 9 Georg von IPSDM 2017
10 Table 1: Descriptive Statistics Variable N Mean Median Min. Max. Std. Dev. Market value (em) 3, 945 9, , , , Book value (em) 3, 945 8, , , , Market-to-book value 3, R&D stock (em) 3, , , , Op. exp. stock (em) 3, , , , , Granted patents 3, , Applied patents 3, , Validated patents 2, 859 2, , 452 8, Trademarks 3, , D (R&D =0) 3, D (Op. exp. =0) 3, R&D/Assets 3, Op. exp./assets 3, Granted p./r&d , Applied p./r&d , Validated p./r&d , Trademarks/Opp. exp , Citations PI (EP)/Patents (app.) 3, Citations (US)/Patents (app.) 2, Citations (EP)/Patents (app.) 2, Citations PI (EP)/Patents (gr.) 3, Citations (US)/Patents (gr.) 2, Citations (EP)/Patents (gr.) 2, Citations PI (EP, app.) 3, , Citations PI (EP, val.) 3, , Citations (EP, app.) 2, Citations (US, app.) 2, , Citations (EP, val.) 2, Citations (US, val.) 2, , Georg von IPSDM 2017
11 Descriptives - observations Market-to-book value same 1.73 as Hall et al. (2005). Before and after 1.69 R&Dstock Marketvalue at mean[median] is 10%[10%] here and 19%[9%] in Hall et al. (2005). We observe > 500 firms between 2006 and We have lost 75% of the original sample due to missing datapoints - we impose requirement that firm variables are observable for at least 5 years before % of the remaining firms are from the US: due to reporting requirements and ownership type. 11 Georg von IPSDM 2017
12 Sample: R&D and Applications R&D/Assets Applications/R&D Logarithm of R&D/Assets 1.5 Logarithm of Applications/R&D YEAR YEAR 12 Georg von IPSDM 2017
13 Distribution of Change in R&D/Assets (Book Value) 8 6 Percent (R&D/Assets_post-R&D/Assets_pre)/R&D/Assets_pre 13 Georg von IPSDM 2017
14 Sample: Patent Stocks and Citations to these Validations/R&D Citations/Patents granted 5 3 Logarithm of Validations/R&D Logarithm of Citations/Patents granted YEAR YEAR 14 Georg von IPSDM 2017
15 Table 2: Market Value as a function of R&D, Patents, Marks, Citations US cit. EPO cit. US cit. EPO cit. Assets (0.0046) (0.0111) (0.0113) (0.0101) (0.0104) R&D/Assets (0.0583) (0.1387) (0.1428) (0.1081) (0.1083) Patents app./r&d (0.0309) (0.0576) (0.0591) (0.0864) (0.0865) Patents val./r&d (0.0157) (0.0319) (0.0329) (0.0358) (0.0366) Citations app./applied (0.0380) (0.0411) (0.0908) (0.0309) (0.0704) Citations gr./granted (0.0279) (0.0305) (0.0684) (0.0227) (0.0512) Opp. ex. /Assets (0.0199) (0.0469) (0.0467) (0.0440) (0.0440) Marks/Opp. exp (0.0060) (0.0137) (0.0139) (0.0137) (0.0138) Industry dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Country dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Observations Adjusted R Standard errors in parentheses + p < 0.10, p < 0.05, p < 0.01, p < Georg von IPSDM 2017
16 Table 3: Market Value: Comparing Citation Stock Measures (EP) Stock Disc. flow Stock Disc. flow Assets (0.0113) (0.0109) (0.0104) (0.0102) R&D/Assets (0.1428) (0.1398) (0.1083) (0.1101) Patents app./r&d (0.0591) (0.0604) (0.0865) (0.0857) Patents val./r&d (0.0329) (0.0307) (0.0366) (0.0354) Citations app./applied (0.0908) (0.0515) (0.0704) (0.0503) Citations gr./granted (0.0684) (0.0473) (0.0512) (0.0348) Opp. ex. /Assets (0.0467) (0.0454) (0.0440) (0.0437) Marks/Opp. exp (0.0139) (0.0139) (0.0138) (0.0140) Industry dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Year dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Country dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Constant (0.1747) (0.1678) (0.1743) (0.1685) Observations r2_a Standard errors in parentheses + p < 0.10, p < 0.05, p < 0.01, p < Georg von IPSDM 2017
17 Table 4: Market Value: Instrumental Variables - Robustness OLS Lags IV OLS Lags IV Assets (0.0115) (0.0111) (0.0176) (0.0104) (0.0103) (0.0240) R&D/Assets (0.1666) (0.1562) (0.1597) (0.1082) (0.1052) (0.1384) Patents app./r&d (0.0626) (0.0626) (0.2499) (0.0874) (0.0870) (0.4970) Patents val./r&d (0.0348) (0.0347) (0.1469) (0.0366) (0.0368) (0.2663) Citations app./applied (0.0908) (0.0917) (0.1950) (0.0705) (0.0715) (0.2321) Citations gr./granted (0.0697) (0.0694) (0.0912) (0.0523) (0.0530) (0.0965) Opp. ex. /Assets (0.0493) (0.0492) (0.0510) (0.0442) (0.0436) (0.0484) Marks/Opp. exp (0.0143) (0.0137) (0.0144) (0.0137) (0.0136) (0.0146) Industry dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Country dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Constant (0.2189) (0.2093) (0.2127) (0.2088) Observations Likelihood -6.9e e e e e e+02 Kleibergen-Paap rk LM p value Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F Hansen J statistic p value Standard errors in parentheses + p < 0.10, p < 0.05, p < 0.01, p < Georg von IPSDM 2017
18 Conclusion & Questions Results suggest: The financial crisis pushed companies to reduce patent portfolios and to increase R&D investments The financial crisis changed how stock markets value companies - less focus on portfolio size, more on portfolio quality What else can we do to test the robustness of these findings? Further splitting of the data hits limits rather quickly. 18 Georg von IPSDM 2017
19 References Arora, A., S. Belenzon, and A. Patacconi (2015): Killing the golden goose? The decline of science in corporate R&D, Tech. rep., National Bureau of Economic Research. Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis (2016): Measuring economic policy uncertainty, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131, Bloom, N. (2009): The impact of uncertainty shocks, econometrica, 77, Bloom, N., M. Schankerman, and J. Van Reenen (2013): Identifying technology spillovers and product market rivalry, Econometrica, 81, Corrado, C. A. and C. R. Hulten (2010): How Do You Measure a" Technological Revolution? The American Economic Review, Hall, B. H., A. B. Jaffe, and M. Trajtenberg (2005): Market Value and Patent Citations, Rand Journal of Economics, 36, Nabar, M. and T. Nicholas (2010): Uncertainty and Innovation During the Great Depression, Tech. rep., Harvard Business School Working Paper,[online] Available at< hbs. edu/tnicholas/ui. pdf. 19 Georg von IPSDM 2017
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