SPX & Europe Near Standstill Nikkei Overshooting

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1 h Equities Sales Trading Commentary Technical Analysis Weekly Comment Global Michael Riesner Marc Müller 17/10/ SPX & Europe Near Standstill Nikkei Overshooting US Trading: With further contracting volatility and the daily trading ranges tightening (in only one of the last 25 sessions we saw a move of more than 0.5% in the SPX), the technical picture in the US has not really changed. Medium-term, the breakout to new all-time highs in the SPX, Russell-2000, and transport are medium-term bullish and confirm our underlying bullish view into Q1. Having said that, our short-term view is unchanged. With an intact number of divergences in our indicator work (momentum, market breadth, volatility side), the SKEW/VIX ratio at record levels, we still see the US market vulnerable for a short pullback into later October before starting its next bounce higher into November. So, although we underestimated the suggested September bounce, we are sticking to our recent call and would rather use weakness to buy instead of chasing the SPX above Last week s marginal extension in the SPX was based on very weak momentum (reflecting increasing selectivity on the sector front), where we continue to see the upper end of the June bull trend channel at 2560/2570 capping the late August rally. Trading support is at 2542, where a break would be short-term negative and imply that a more important tactical top is in place with key support at 2509/2491, which we expect to be tested into late October/early November. On the sector front, we got initial reversals in cyclical themes (BKX, DJT). In DGR, BTK, HGX, QNET and XOI, we have momentum divergences (which is normally toppish), whereas in defensive utilities and staples our suggested oversold bounce is underway. US Strategy: In our cyclical model, the break of the SPX August 8 th top at 2491 triggered a new medium-term long signal in our cyclical model into Q1, but this does not mean that on a short-term basis we will not see tactical pullbacks on the way higher. However, (and as we said over the last 4 weeks) with an intact rotation on the sector front (cyclicals and particularly banks and energy outperforming versus defensive underperforming), the SPX should remain well-supported into potential early Q4 weakness. So, although we continue to see the US market short-term vulnerable for a pullback into later October, and as long as trading above its medium-term pivotal August 21 st low at 2417, we remain underlying bullish into Q1, which was and remains our preferred time window for an important and major market top of the underlying 2016 wave 5 bull cycle, and where ahead of this potential top we should see further increasing selectivity in the US and global equities. European Trading: With the (20-day) average true range at a 12-year low, European markets are close to a standstill. Again, after the stronger than expected September rally (DAX posted its 3 rd strongest September since 1965!!), the move has been clearly losing momentum over the last 2 weeks. In the bigger picture, Europe trades in wave 5 of the 2016 bull cycle, which confirms our underlying bullish bias into Q1. However, on a short-term basis, Europe remains overbought and with the DAX, OMX, CAC and FTSE-100 facing strong resistance we continue to expect a short pullback into late October, before we expect more upside and outperformance into November (where we expect more EUR weakness). Euro Stoxx support is unchanged at 3555 to worst case 3520 into later October, as the setup for the next bounce into November. Inter Market Analysis: On the macro side, our short-term views are unchanged. In FX, we see our suggested wave b pullback in the US dollar into late October/early November before expecting the DXY to start its last rebound wave c into later November. Into Q1 we remain a dollar bear. On the bond side we have with last week s reversal a new pivotal level in place in US yields. As long as US 10-year yield trades below 2.40% we expect more short-term pulling back into late October/early November before expecting yields to start the next move higher towards 2.60% into year-end/q1. On the metals side, gold is on track with our trading buy call into late October/early November, with target $ 1320 and best case a re-test of the early September high at $1356. In the base metal camp copper has hit a new reaction high but together metals such as aluminum and nickel we see copper trading in wave 5, which limits further upside and speaks against chasing base metals too aggressively. Asian Corner: Tracking the pattern in global equities, with the June 2016 bottom, the Nikkei-225 trades in a wave 5 bull market, where strategically, and from a cyclical aspect, we have been underlying bullish into Q (where we have our next major top projection for the Japanese market). However, similar to our US view, timing wise, the September rally surprised us, where the breakout into our suggested later 2017 rally started earlier and from higher levels than expected. Last week, the Nikkei-225 hit a new 17-year high. On a very short-term basis, the Nikkei is overbought and trades in the time window of a multi-week cycle top, so where we actually see the Nikkei due for a pullback into early November before starting another bounce attempt. In this context we would rather buy the dips instead of chasing the current breakout. UBS 1

2 US Equity Market Update: Chart 1. ) S&P-500 Daily Chart Chart 2. ) S&P-500 with VIX Index Chart 3. ) S&P-500 with 20-Day Average True Range Daily Chart Losing Momentum With the Russell-2000 continuing to move sideways, and the volatility as well as the daily trading ranges further tightening, we have an unchanged technical picture in the US. Medium-term, the breakout to new all-time highs in the SPX, Russell-2000, and transport are still outright bullish and confirm our underlying bullish view into Q1. Having said that, our short-term view is unchanged. On the indicator side, we have a number of intact divergences in our indicator work. In our medium-term momentum indicators (NYSE McClellan) we have a larger non-confirmation forming, which is normally high conviction toppish. Not a big surprise, with last week s initial reversals in key sectors such as BKX and DJT, the number of new highs produced another low high versus last week s marginal extension in the SPX. On the volatility side, we have an intact divergence in the VIX, where last week s new all-time high in the SPX produced another higher reaction low in the VIX index. Together with the SKEW/VIX ratio at record levels, and with the SPX trading in the time window of a 2-month cycle top, we still see the US market vulnerable for a short pullback into later October before starting its next bounce higher into November. Generally, with further deteriorating momentum, the daily trading range in the SPX has continued tightening, which can be measured by the average true range indicator. A very tight trading range and very low volatility is de facto exactly the opposite of market nervousness and high volatility. In this context, we see the 10-year low in the average true range in Europe and the very low reading in the US as just another short-term warning signal that the market is simply too complacent, which is something we normally see ahead of important tactical tops or minimum prior to important tactical tops. So again, although we underestimated the suggested September bounce, we are sticking to our recent call and would use weakness to buy instead of chasing the SPX above Conclusion: Last week s marginal extension in the SPX was based on very weak momentum (reflecting increasing selectivity on the sector front), where we continue to see the upper end of the June bull trend channel at 2560/2570 capping the late August rally. Trading support is at 2542, where a break would be short-term negative and imply that a more important tactical top is in place with key support at 2509/2491, which we expect to be tested into late October/early November. UBS 2

3 US Equity Market Update: Chart 4. ) S&P-500 with NYSE McClellan Oscillator With an intact divergence in our medium-term momentum work and the SKEW/VIX ratio at record levels we continue to see a poor risk/reward ratio for chasing the market on the current elevated levels. Chart 5. ) Dow Jones Transport versus S&P-500 Chart 6. ) S&P-500 with New-52 Week Highs According to the Dow Theory, new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial (which we can also substitute with the SPX) and the early cyclical Dow Jones Transport are underlying bullish, whereas a divergences between both key indices is usually an early warning indicator for moving into a more important overall market top. In this context, we see the last breakout to a new all-time high in transport as a clear confirmation of the October breakout in the SPX, which is bullish and confirms the underlying bullish view we had and continue to have into Q1. However, short-term the DJT is overbought and last Friday we saw a bigger reversal in the DJT. Furthermore, from a wave pattern standpoint we see the DJT trading in wave 5 of its 2016 bull cycle, so that the DJT may not be far from a major top. Again, implicitly we expect the DJT topping out earlier as the SPX and it should therefore be a leading indicator for an overall market top. Not a big surprise, with last week s initial reversals in key sectors such as BKX and DJT, the number of new highs produced another low high versus last week s marginal extension in the SPX. UBS 3

4 US Equity Market Update: Chart 7. ) US Banking Index (BKX) Daily Chart Chart 8. ) Dow Jones Transport Daily Chart Initial Reversal in Cyclicals The underlying trend picture in the US sector landscape is unchanged. From a trend perspective, we have an intact reflation trade, and we clearly expect the underlying outperformance trend of cyclicals versus defensives to continue into later 2017 and into Q However, on a short-term basis, cyclical themes are overbought where last week we saw initial reversals in banks and transport, where in oil stocks the momentum has been clearly deteriorating and also in the recent outperformer such as housing, healthcare and biotech we have momentum divergences forming, which is shortterm toppish. Together with fresh sell signals in banks and transport we still see cyclical themes vulnerable for a short-term pullback into later October/early November before starting its next bigger bounce attempt into November. And again, according to the Dow Theory, we wouldn t be surprised that last week s reversal in the DJT is already part of a bigger top forming, as we continue to expect transport topping out earlier as the overall market. With a re-break below 9764 we would get further increasing evidence that a more important top in transport is forming. Chart 9. ) US Oil Index (XOI) Daily Chart UBS 4

5 US Equity Market Update: Chart 10. ) Dow Jones Utilities Daily Chart On the other hand, we have seen our suggested bounce in defensives themes, where particularly utilities and consumer staples were oversold; and with anticipating a 2- to 3-week lasting pullback in risk, we can see more bouncing in DJU and staples. In utilities, we would keep a close eye on the last reaction low at 720, which is a key support and stop-loss trigger for any kind of bounce scenario. Chart 11. ) US Healthcare (DRG) Daily Chart Healthcare stocks have been the clear outperformer in the defensive camp, and form a pattern standpoint strongly correlated to high beta risk. With divergences forming in our daily trend work and facing strong resistance, we see DRG vulnerable for a short-term pullback and would therefore not chase healthcare stocks. Chart 12. ) S&P-500 Consumer Staples Daily Chart Staples are bouncing, where a break of the early June down trend at around 567 would imply more short-term gains. However, from a trend perspective we continue to see any near-term upside limited as on the macro side our bias towards higher yields into year-end and into Q1 remains intact. UBS 5

6 Inter Market Update: DXY Still in Wave B Gold On Track with $1320 On the macro side, and particularly after last week s reversal in US 10-year Treasury yields, we are on track with our short-term trading calls on rates, the US dollar and on gold, which in all fields we see as tactical moves/counter trend moves and therefore a pause within established underlying medium-term to long-term trends. In FX, after calling an important multi-month cyclical bottom in early September, we see the DXY trading in a corrective a-b-c rebound pattern, which according to our cyclical model, we expect to last into deeper/later November before starting its next major down cycle, as part of the underlying 2017 bear cycle, into year-end and into Q1. Very important, in a new down cycle we expect further US dollar weakness to get much selectively, so where in our view the pressure will come more from heavy weighted key pairs such as the EUR, GBP and SEK, whereas in more and more commodity and/or EM/Asian pairs (CAD, NZD, TRY, INR, SGD, MXN) we think a major US dollar bottom is already in place. On a very short-term basis, and as long as trading below 94.14, we see the DXY trading in wave B, where into late October and into early November we expect to see more corrective pulling back, whereas a break of would be immediately bullish and imply that our suggested wave c rebound wave into deeper/later November is already underway. Chart 13. ) Trade Weighted Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart Chart 15. ) USDMXN Daily Chart Chart 14. ) EURUSD Daily Chart Chart 16. ) USDMXN Weekly Chart UBS 6

7 Inter Market Update: Chart 17. ) US 10-Year Treasury Yield Daily Chart Chart 18. ) Gold Daily Chart Pivotal high in place in yields! On track with our short-term scenario/call, we got last week a bigger reversal in US 10-year Treasury yields, which is important since this represents a 2-month cycle top in our cyclical model and therefore a new pivotal point/resistance. Consequently, as long as the US 10-year yield trades below 2.40%, we expect more short-term pulling back into late October and ultimately into early November before we anticipate yields to start its next move higher towards 2.60% to 2.80% into year-end/q1. Generally, regardless of any short-term timing and/or scenarios, from a trend perspective we remain bearish bonds, where a break of the last reaction high at 2.40% would be a very bearish trigger, and which in this case we would expect to be the trigger for significant higher cross asset volatility in financial markets. Gold bouncing into early November On the metals side, and despite the pullback of the last 2 sessions, we see gold on track with our trading buy call into late October/early November, with target $ 1320 and best case a re-test of the early September high at $1356. Our medium-term view is unchanged. Although we see gold in a bull market and we therefore remain underlying bullish gold into initially 2018, we are sticking to our call of the last few months that in 2017 gold will remain more a trading theme. On the one hand further US dollar weakness later this year should help and trigger a bounce, whereas a latent trend of rising yields will remain a capping factor if not even be the trigger for a temporary undershooting, which we do not rule out from our suggested early November top into later November. Chart 19. ) Copper Daily Chart Copper in wave 5 don t chase! On the commodity side, we had a clear bullish bias in 2017, where it was in particularly the constructive Q1 bull flag pattern in copper, which left us in the bull camp and where we expected a new breakout/rally as the continuation of the underlying 2016 reflation cycle. On a short-term basis, after the September pullback, copper hit a new reaction high yesterday. Generally, with a bigger none confirmation forming in our trend work, speculative positioning hitting extreme levels, and with reaching our next major target at $3.27 (50% retracement of the 2011/2016 bear cycle) we see copper trading in wave 5, which means the 2016 bull cycle is in its final innings, similar to the outperformer aluminum and zinc. Consequently, although on a short-term basis we can still see more strength, we see further upside limited so would not chase copper on current levels! UBS 7

8 Asian Corner Update: Chart 20. ) Nikkei-225 Daily Chart Chart 21. ) Nikkei-225 Weekly Chart Chart 22. ) USDJPY versus US 10-Year Treasury Yield Nikkei-225 bullish but overbought Strategically, and tracking the pattern in global equities, with the June 2016 bottom, the Nikkei-225 trades in a wave 5 bull market, where strategically, and from a cyclical aspect, we have been underlying bullish into Q where we have our next major top projection for the Japanese market. However, tactically, in our last update on Japan (September 5 th weekly report), we highlighted the Nikkei- 225 sitting in a technical make or break set up, with gold testing its 2011 down trend, the USDJPY sitting at its 108 key support and the Nikkei testing its 2016 bull trend support. In early September we said, that (as long as the Nikkei-225 trades below 19730) we cannot rule out a temporary negative surprise into later Q3 before starting another significant rally into year-end, which from a macro standpoint should be triggered by another up-leg in US yields. In early September we also said that from a macro correlation standpoint, only a bearish reversal in gold can avoid a September sell-off or be a bullish game changer for Japan. With the early September reversal in gold and the low in US yields we saw a big bullish reversal in the Nikkei-225, and with breaking our highlighted risk level at 19730, we got a tactical buy signal in the Nikkei. Nonetheless, similar as in the US, the momentum of the September rally clearly surprised us, where at the end of the day, the breakout into our suggested later 2017 rally started earlier and from higher levels than expected. Last week, the Nikkei-225 hit a new 17-year high, so where do we stand now in the Nikkei? On a very shortterm basis, the Nikkei is obviously overbought and trades in the time window of a multi-week cycle top, so where we actually see the Nikkei due for a pullback into early November before starting another bounce attempt. Having said that, the most important message is that from a wave perspective the high momentum rally of the last few week s suggests an impulsive extension of the 2016 wave 5 bull cycle. So together with our expectation of further rising rates in the US (bullish USDJPY) and our (unchanged) cyclical projection of a major top projection in later Q1, we can expect the Nikkei- 225 to further outperform into year-end and into Q1. So although on a very short-term basis we would rather buy the dips instead of chasing the current breakout, we remain underlying bullish and expect more gains with a Nikkei- 225 target of into later Q1. UBS 8

9 European Equity Market Update: Standstill in Europe and Still Due for Pullback With the (20-day) average true range at a 12-year low, European markets are close to a standstill. Again, after the stronger than expected September rally (DAX posted its 3 rd strongest September since 1965!!), the move has been clearly losing momentum over the last 2 weeks. In the bigger picture, Europe trades in wave 5 of the 2016 bull cycle, which confirms our underlying bullish bias into Q1. However, on a short-term basis, Europe remains overbought and with the DAX, OMX, CAC and FTSE-100 facing strong resistance we continue to expect a short pullback into late October, before we expect more upside and outperformance into November (where we expect more EUR weakness). Euro Stoxx support is unchanged at 3555 to worst case 3520 into later October, as the setup for the next bounce into November. Chart 23. ) Euro Stoxx 50 Daily Chart Euro Stoxx 50: Thanks to an ongoing sector rotation, the current consolidation on the index front continued last week to unfold in a sideways manner. With most cyclical sectors (and selective defensives such as food after a 3- week rally) still in a short-term overbought position, the consolidation on the index front still looks unfinished. Our fast momentum work has reached neutral territory and leaves the door open for more short-term down tests, where we continue to see the market vulnerable for more near-term consolidation into later October and worst case early November. Minor trading support at 3585 is defined by the current trading range and a break would trigger risk of extension towards 3555/3520 as a setup for the next bounce into November. Chart 24. ) Weekly MACD Buy Signals STOXX Sectors Weekly MACD Buy Signals STOXX Sectors: Although the short-term situation on the index front is clearly overbought and a pullback is overdue, it is definitely too early to get really worried or bearish on the market medium-term. In our sector breadth work we are tracking the number of weekly MACD buy signals in the 19 STOXX key sectors. After being oversold in August and turning long, this indicator has just reached neutral territory so where just half of the 19 key sectors have an intact weekly MACD buy signal, which is still far from being overbought let alone that a major divergences is missing. Consequently, after a short-term pullback we can expect further gains in Europe and more likely a break of the May reaction high, which would open a test of the 2015 all-time high in the Euro Stoxx into year-end and into Q1. UBS 9

10 European Equity Market Update: Chart 25. ) FTSE-100 Daily Chart FTSE-100: With the GBP bouncing, the current bounce of the FTSE is losing momentum below the overhead resistance at Last week's small reversal triggered a sell signal in our fast momentum work, which continues to support our ongoing corrective scenario within the multi-month trading range. Another pullback starting below 7600 is probably required to work off the short-term overbought situation, before starting a breakout attempt at 7600 later in Q4. Minor supports are 7440 and the 200-day moving average at Chart 26. ) DAX-30 Daily Chart DAX-30: Despite five consecutive doji candles last week, the DAX managed to produce a marginal new all-time high. In other words, the extension was based on very low momentum and the index is struggling to overcome the round number at decisively. Following the deteriorating index momentum, a failure to overcome or a re-break would be a technical trigger to start a pullback. Given the impulsive style of the previous rally, retracing the last wave towards 12600/12500 remains a scenario into deeper October before the real breakout attempt becomes more realistic later in Q4. Chart 27. ) Swiss Market Index Daily Chart Swiss Market Index: Similar to several other headline indices in Europe, last week the SMI produced a new high based on low momentum. Pattern-wise, we continue to see the SMI trading in a wave 5 of a lower degree, which should complete the impulsive rally off from the late August trading low. With the daily indicator at elevated levels and many cyclical single stocks already showing initial signs of consolidation, we continue to favor a wave 5 retracement move towards 9070, whereas the former reaction high at 9200 represents a minor support. We furthermore expect a pullback to unfold in a corrective manner following the previous impulsive move. UBS 10

11 STOXX Europe 600 Index Sector Overview: UBS 11

12 Weekly Technical Indicators: (Source: Pinnacle Data, Datastream) Charts: Tradesignal S&P 500 with AAII Bullish Consensus (%) S&P 500 with AAII Bearish Consensus (%) S&P 500 with INVI Advisors Sentiment Bullish (%) S&P 500 with NAAIM Exposure Index S&P 500 with CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio S&P 500 with CBOE SKEW/VIX Ratio UBS 12

13 Weekly Technical Indicators: (Source: Pinnacle Data, Datastream) Charts: Tradesignal S&P 500 Stocks above 20 day moving average S&P 500 Stocks above 200 day moving average STOXX Europe 600 Stocks above 20 day moving average STOXX Europe 600 Stocks above 200 day moving average MSCI World and MSCI World Markets with Golden Cross (%) MSCI World Markets New 52-Week Highs UBS 13

14 Weekly Technical Indicators: (Source: Pinnacle Data, Datastream) Charts: Tradesignal S&P 500 with Break-Even Inflation Rate Gold with Break-Even Inflation Rate US Yield Curve versus US Bank Index (BKX)/S&P 500 Yield Difference Germany vs USA and EURUSD Relative Chart STOXX Europe 600 versus S&P 500 Relative Chart Nikkei 225 versus S&P 500 UBS 14

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Korea Distributed in Korea by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Seoul Branch. This document may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Seoul Branch. India Prepared by UBS Securities India Private Ltd. (Corporate Identity Number U67120MH1996PTC097299) 2/F, 2 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai (India) Phone: SEBI Registration Numbers: NSE (Capital Market Segment): INB , NSE (F&O Segment) INF , BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB Dubai These materials are distributed by UBS AG Dubai Branch (regulated by the DFSA) and are intended for Professional Clients only and are not for further distribution within the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia These materials have been issued by UBS AG (and/or any of its subsidiaries, branches or affiliates), a public company limited by shares, incorporated in Switzerland with its registered offices at Aeschenvorstadt 1, CH-4051 Basel and Bahnhofstrasse 45, CH-8001 Zurich. This publication has been approved by UBS Saudi Arabia (a subsidiary of UBS AG), a Saudi closed joint stock company incorporated in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under commercial register number having its registered office at Tatweer Towers, P.O. Box 75724, Riyadh 11588, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. UBS Saudi Arabia is authorized and regulated by the Capital Market Authority to conduct securities business under license number Singapore These materials are distributed in Singapore by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd or UBS AG Singapore Branch to institutional investors or accredited investors. Asian jurisdictions (excluding HK, Singapore & Japan) This material is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or services. Please also note that the products have not be intended for marketing to the public. Malaysia These materials are authorized to be distributed in Malaysia by UBS Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd ( x). Brazil Except as otherwise specified herein, this material is prepared by UBS Brasil CCTVM S.A. to persons who are eligible investors residing in Brazil, which are considered to be: (i) financial institutions, (ii) insurance firms and investment capital companies, (iii) supplementary pension entities, (iv) entities that hold financial investments higher than R$300, and that confirm the status of qualified investors in written, (v) investment funds, (vi) securities portfolio managers and securities consultants duly authorized by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), regarding their own investments, and (vii) social security systems created by the Federal Government, States, and Municipalities Israel UBS AG and its affiliates incorporated outside Israel are not licensed under the Investment Advice Law. These materials are being issued only to and/or is directed only at persons who are Sophisticated Investors within the meaning of the Israeli Securities Law and these materials must not be relied or acted upon by any other persons. Any securities mentioned herein that have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933 may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exception from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws and in such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. UBS specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the prior written permission of UBS and UBS accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. UBS All rights reserved. UBS 16