Daily, Friday, 3/13/15

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Emil Shelton
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2 Daily, Friday, 3/13/15 2

3 Watch List Monday 3/9/ NOAH IBD 50 #23, A bit sloppy but very desirable. Tip, Top No Breakout Fundamentals. 2. FB Leaderboard, C/H, New America 3/9/15 No Breakout 3. AYI Leaderboard, nearly 5-week, tight FB No Breakout 4. LNKD IBD 50 #9, LB, Sector Leader No Breakout No Breakout 5. CELG IBD 50 #19, C/HH No Breakout 6. ORLY IBD 50 #27, FB, RS new high. 7. AFSI IBD 50 #33 I Like The Base Breakout 3

4 IBD 50 3/9/2015 4

5 IBD 50 3/9/2015 5

6 INSIDE THE IBD 50 3/9/2015 6

7 47 Buy or Sell Transactions In 10 Weeks or Just ~5 per week or one per day 7

8 Any Questions? 8

9 To the 11 th Week 9

10 In 11 th Week Sold SWKS At Profit Goal, SR #2 10

11 11

12 Daily Friday, 3/20/

13 11 th Week 9 Stocks Increased IP Size to $40,000 from $36,000 on AFSI that was up from $29,000 initially. 13

14 Watch List Monday 3/16/ NOAH IBD 50 #14, A bit sloppy but very desirable. Tip, Top Fundamentals. EPS Due 2. FB Leaderboard, C/H 3. AYI Leaderboard, nearly 5-week, tight FB 4. LNKD IBD 50 #11, FB 5. CELG IBD 50 #16, C/HH No Breakout 6. ORLY IBD 50 #26, FB, RS new high. Broke Our Just After Earnings Broke out after NOHA It worked to +25% No Breakout In broke out but I preferred NOAH 14

15 Watch List, Monday, 3/16/2015 Earnings Due 3/16/15 AMC 15

16 IBD 50 3/16/15 16

17 Daily Tuesday, 3/17/15 Just after earnings release 17

18 Daily Thurs, 3/19/

19 End of 11 th Week Stocks Bought & Sold 1. ILMN Failed 2. MNST 3. SWKS Profit 4. AMBA Failed 5. SKX 6. CMG Failed 7. NXPI Profit 8. AKRX Failed 9. UVE 10. ULTA 11. PANW 12. AMBA 13. AFSI 14. NOAH 15. CELG Bought 15 Sold 6 4 for a loss 2 of profit Stocks Owned 1. MNST 2. SKX 3. UVE 4. ULTA 5. PANW 6. AMBA 7. AFSI 8. NOAH 9. CELG Portfolio has too many stocks. Need to buy bigger initial positions to $40,000 for about $29,000 19

20 To The 12 th Week 20

21 In 12 th Week Sold UVE Profit Goal, SR #2 CELG Failed Breakout, SR #12 21

22 Sold 8 Stocks So Far 1. ILMN 2. AMBA 3. CMG 4. AKRX 5. NXPI 6. SWKX 7. UVE 8. CELG From $21,762 22

23 Daily Wednesday, 3/25/15 23

24 Daily - Monday, 3/23/15 24

25 The 12 th Week Own X Stocks 1. MNST 2. SKX 3. ULTA 4. PANW 5. AMBA 6. ASFI 7. NOAH 8. ORLY Gains Average $4,580 per week Sold CELG and UVE. Buying ORLY, increased IP to $40,000 25

26 What Has The Market Been Doing? 26

27 Mostly Under Pressure With High Distribution Count 27

28 In this time the portfolio gained $19,533 or $4,883 per week. 28

29 Gains To 3/27/2015 March SKX up 10% UVE up 7% AMBA up 6% 29

30 Gains To 3/27/2015 March March 30

31 What Is Being Done In The Model? Is This Realistic? Picking stocks with top CAN SLIM characteristics, mostly on the IBD 50, mostly near the top of the IBD 50. Picking stocks completing full bases. Buying near the pivot point, not chasing. Being ready to buy, not missing chances. Making proper follow-on buys. Being optimistic in the Bull Market, and being fully invested when the portfolio is working. Following the rules very carefully. 31

32 Study This Pick It Apart Compare the watch lists with yours. When stocks are bought. Study how stocks are bought. How the portfolio is filled. Examine how stocks are managed. When follow-on buys are made. When and how stocks are sold. Compare with your methods and rules Can the methods used here work for you? 32

33 Questions? 33

34 On To End Of Week #13 34

35 The 13 th Week 35

36 On To End Of Week #14 36

37 The 14 th Week Why the big surge up? 37

38 What Is Market Doing 38

39 Daily Friday, 4/10/15 This didn t trigger much selling, just CELG B1, per the rules, no emotions, no guessing, no projecting. So the portfolio was fully invested when the market recovered 39

40 To 15 th Week 40

41 The 15 th Week 41

42 To 16 th Week 42

43 In 16 th Week Sold MNST for Profit Sell Rule #2 25% Profit Goal 43

44 Realized Gains Through 16 th Week Sold 9 Stocks So Far 44

45 End of 16 th Week Stocks Bought & Sold 1. ILMN Failed 2. MNST Profit 3. SWKS Profit 4. AMBA Failed 5. SKX 6. CMG Failed 7. NXPI Profit 8. AKRX Failed 9. UVE Profit 10. ULTA 11. PANW 12. AMBA 13. AFSI 14. NOAH 15. CELG 16. ORLY 17. NETS Bought 17 Sold 9 5 Failed 4 Had Good Gains Buy $50,000 initial positions from $40,000 Stocks Owned 1. SKX 2. ULTA 3. PANW 4. AMBA 5. AFSI 6. NOAH 7. ORLY 8. NTES 45

46 Use Sell Rule #10 On Shechers Extend Gains Using 10-day line 46

47 Sell Rule Summary 1. Sell -7% from buy price. (Cut Loss Sell Rule) 2. Take gains +20% to +25% above pivot point, unless within the first 8 weeks. Also See rule #14. (Profit Goal Sell Rule.) 3. When profitable 6%-11% or so use 10%-14.5% cushion. (Decline from the peak sell rule) 4. If -7% failure three times stop buying and study. (Three-Strikes Rule) 5. Sell if it plunges below the 50-day on huge volume. (Pierce 50 on huge volume.) 6. Sell if it gaps down on huge volume. (Big Gap Down on Huge Volume) 7. If market corrects you may sell lagging positions to reduce exposure. 8. If up 20% in 3 weeks hold 8 full weeks. (Certain-teed hold rule) 9. Sell only if written sell rule is triggered. 10. Stocks surging up past the sell goal may be held using the 10-day line as a selling guide. (Short tern gain extension) 11. If portfolio is down 4% for the week (no margin) to 8% (full margin), sell weak stocks to reduce exposure. Generally sell at least one full position to cut risk. 12. Probably sell if a breakout on good volume stalls and goes negative within a day or two. (Failing Breakout sell rule.) 13. Sell all or part of stock if afraid or confused.

48 The 16 th Week 48

49 To The 17 th Week 5/1/2015 No Buys Or Sells 4 Full Months 49

50 The 17 th Week $7,173 per week 50

51 4-Month Gain $121,955 (122%) Using Full Margin Margin Account CAGR about 1,130% $50,800 (51%) Estimated for Cash ($24,000) ($10,000) Estimated Cash Account CAGR about 264% What If We Made A Few Mistakes And Did 1/5 th As Well As This Model 51

52 Margin vs. Cash Models 52

53 The Market Is Bullish > ¾ Of The Time Monthly 30 Years 53

54 IBD 50 Index Daily 1/2/ /4/15 54

55 This pull-in is less than a week IBD 50 Index Daily 1/2/ /4/15 The Disciplined Buys Here By this point the optimists portfolio has a profit cushion. Sell rules manage the relatively short and shallow pull-in The Disciplined Optimist Buys Here The optimists hardly notices this jog. 55

IBD 50 Index Daily 1/2/2015 11/4/15 The Pessimist The Pessimist The Pessimist The pessimist

56 IBD 50 Index Daily 1/2/ /4/15 The Pessimist The Pessimist The Pessimist The pessimist portfolio has no cushion and gets creamed here The pessimist has no cushion takes small losses. 56

57 Model Gain 18 th Week 5/1/

58 Model Gain 18 th Week 5/8/

59 Model Gain 18 th Week 5/14/

60 Model Gains 18 th Week 6/5/

61 Nasdaq Composite 18 th Week 6/5/2015 Market Has Been Okay for CAN SLIM 61

62 Model Gains vs. Nasdaq Comp 18 th Week 6/5/

63 Model Gains 18 th Week 6/5/2015 Up 17% All 8 Stocks Up AMBA Up 14.5% CBM Up 6.7% SKX Up 3.7% NTES Up 3.0% ULTA Up 2.4% PANW Up 2.4% AFSI Up 1.9% ORLY Up 1.1% 63

64 To The Last Week 64

Where Wealth Begins. Learn to Build a Portfolio PRESENTED BY: DENNIS W. WILBORN

Where Wealth Begins. Learn to Build a Portfolio PRESENTED BY: DENNIS W. WILBORN Learn to Build a Portfolio PRESENTED BY: DENNIS W. WILBORN Disclaimer U.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT