Homebuilding & Building Products

Transcription

1 Homebuilding & Building Products March 5, 2010 INDUSTRY UPDATE Homebuilding & Building Products Housing Activity: Did Weather Make a Difference? You Decide. Unlike a Builder friend, who likes to say that one will get no weather report here (kudos to him), we are giving readers the opportunity to create their own weather report from all the weather maps below. The recent Housing releases for January turned in fairly dismal results. All industry participants and observers made their own conclusions as to the effect of what is commonly thought to be unusually bad weather. To us, generally speaking, it s not about the weather overall during January, or February for that matter, but the three days around the weekend (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday), as this is when most buyers look at homes. So, we extracted the precipitation maps for just those days in the first two months of the year. The maps make for some interesting arguments, and given that our meteorological skills only rival Punxsutawney Phil s, we do not claim to have a definitive answer. However, after reviewing all these precipitation maps, while remembering much of this precipitation is of the frozen variety, which hangs around, dissuading people from venturing out, we would argue that January was usefully affected by bad weather while February looked a bit more conducive to visiting model homes. We note that all charts to follow are courtesy of the National Weather Service. Stephen East (636) ; seast@ticonsec.com Paul Przybylski (636) ; pprzybylski@ticonsec.com See last page of the report for Ticonderoga Securities LLC disclosures and positions in herein mention issuer New York 520 Madison Avenue, 4th floor NY, Virginia 6802 Paragon Place, Suite 401 Richmond, VA California One Market Street Spear Tower, Suite 3636 San Francisco, CA

2 Friday 1/1/10 Saturday 1/2/10 Sunday 1/3/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 2

3 Friday 1/8/10 Saturday 1/9/10 Sunday 1/10/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 3

4 Friday 1/15/10 Saturday 1/16/10 Sunday 1/17/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 4

5 Friday 1/22/10 Saturday 1/23/10 Sunday 1/24/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 5

6 Friday 1/29/10 Saturday 1/30/10 Sunday 1/31/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 6

7 Friday 2/5/10 Saturday 2/6/10 Sunday 2/7/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 7

8 Friday 2/12/10 Saturday 2/13/10 Sunday 2/14/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 8

9 Friday 2/19/10 Saturday 2/20/10 Sunday 2/21/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 9

10 Friday 2/26/10 Saturday 2/27/10 Sunday 2/28/10 Homebuilding & Building Products 10

11 Important Disclosures General Disclosures This report has been prepared by Ticonderoga Securities LLC, by the specific legal entity named above. Where this report has been approved for distribution in the US, such distribution is by either: (i) Ticonderoga Securities LLC; or (ii) other Ticonderoga Securities LLC companies to US Institutional Investors and Major US Institutional Investors only; or (iii) if the report relates to non-us exchange traded futures, Ticonderoga Securities LLC. Ticonderoga Securities LLC, accepts responsibility for this report in the US. Any US persons wishing to effect a transaction through Ticonderoga Securities LLC (a) in any security mentioned in this report may only do so through Ticonderoga Securities LLC, telephone: (212) ; or (b) in a non-us exchange traded future may only do so through Ticonderoga Securities LLC, telephone: (212) Any forecasts or price targets shown for companies and/or securities discussed in this report may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors including without limitation market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information and/or the subsequent transpiration that underlying assumptions made by Ticonderoga Securities LLC or by other sources relied upon in the report were inapposite. The material herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. It is published for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Prices and opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, and Ticonderoga Securities LLC is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. The relevant research analyst(s) named on this report may not be registered / qualified as research analysts with FINRA if they are not associated persons of the Ticonderoga Securities LLC and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Analyst Certification The relevant research analyst(s), as named on the front cover of this report, certify that (a) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about the securities and companies mentioned in this report; and (b) no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by them contained in this report. Ratings Definition Ticonderoga Securities LLC assigns research equity ratings of Buy, Neutral or Sell. Buy ratings reflect an estimated increase in share price of 15% or more. Neutral ratings reflect a variation in share price between a 15% appreciation and a 15% decline. Sell ratings reflect an estimated underperformance and a decrease in share price of 15% or more. Except where noted, all ratings indicate expected performance over the next 12-months. On October 15, 2009 to better convey the analyst's opinion to our customers, Ticonderoga Securities changed its overall research ratings system from "Buy, Hold, Sell" to "Buy, Neutral, Sell." Definitions of each rating are included in these disclaimers. Buy: 12 months, estimated 15% or more appreciation. Neutral: 12 months, between 15% appreciation and 15% decline expected. Sell: 12 months, estimated 15% or more decline. IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent BUY [BUY] NEUTRAL [NEUTRAL] SELL [SELL] Homebuilding & Building Products 11