Nestle India (NEST IN)

Transcription

1 (NEST IN) Rating: ACCUMULATE CMP: Rs9,569 TP: Rs11,129 October 26, 2018 Q3CY18 Result Update Change in Estimates Target Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous CY19E CY20E CY19E CY20E Rating ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE Target Price 11,129 10,996 Sales (Rs. m) 128, , , ,428 % Chng EBITDA (Rs. m) 31,761 35,870 31,567 35,360 % Chng EPS (Rs.) % Chng Key Financials CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E Sales (Rs. bn) EBITDA (Rs. bn) Margin (%) PAT (Rs. bn) EPS (Rs.) Gr. (%) DPS (Rs.) Yield (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PE (x) P/BV (x) Key Data NEST.BO NEST IN 52-W High / Low Rs.11,705 / Rs.6,887 Sensex / Nifty 33,349 / 10,030 Market Cap Rs.923bn/ $ 12,577m Shares Outstanding 96m 3M Avg. Daily Value Rs m Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoter s Foreign Domestic Institution 8.00 Public & Others Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute (1.6) Relative Amnish Aggarwal amnishaggarwal@plindia.com Nishita Doshi nishitadoshi@plindia.com Strategy continues to pay off Nestlé s 3QCY19 nos reinforce our confidence in our recent upgrade (link to recent update) in rating (Hold to Accumulate) with 16.9% sales and 25.6% EBIDTA growth on 1) improved demand growth momentum and upcoming festival season 2) Cluster based strategy to go deeper and increase sales in interiors 3) strong innovation and renovation with high success rates. Although most Agri inputs have been moving up, NEST seems better placed given that 51% of input cost basket (Milk, SMP, Coffee and Cocoa) is benign. This will enable Nestle to neutralize margin pressures on firming up of crude, wheat, sugar and palm oil. We estimate 33% PAT growth in CY18 and 13.9% PAT CAGR over CY18-20 mainly led by double digit sales growth even as we increase our estimates by % for CY We value the stock at 46xCY20 EPS and arrive at target price of Rs Retain Accumulate Net Sales up 16.8%; Adj. PAT up 32.3%: Net sales grew 16.8% to Rs29.2bn led by volume growth across categories. Export sales grew at 7.9%. Gross margins expanded by 290bps to 59.7% due to benign input costs of Milk, SMP, Cocoa and Coffee despite headwinds in Crude prices and INR depreciation. EBITDA grew by 25.6% to Rs 7.42bn. EBITDA margins expanded by 180bps to 25.2% on 40bp decline in staff costs even as other expenses increased by 150bps due to ramp up in ad-spends and higher fuel prices. Adj. PAT increased by 32.3% to Rs 4.6bn aided by 50bps lower tax rate and 55.7% increase in other income despite 20.1% increase in Interest cost. Raw Material cost inflation to remain muted: Input cost tailwind has given 350 bps gross margin gains in 9mCY18. Nestle seem better placed in our FMCG universe as prices of SMP and Milk (40% of RM) are down 3% YoY and up 7.2% QoQ. Cocoa price is down 3.5% YoY and 7.5% QoQ while Coffee prices are still benign YoY. Benign input prices in 51% of RM basket will help Nestle maintain margins in the coming quarters. Cluster based Distribution strategy to provide an edge: Nestle is creating distribution clusters to fill up white spaces in distribution and increase penetration to cater to small towns and interiors. Nestle has divided India into 15 clusters which will enable it to 1) enhance local and regional involvement in decision making 2) enhance efficiency in reaching out to customers 3) rationalize supply chain and optimize resource utilization and 4) realign its NPD planning based on regional tastes and preferences. Innovations to fuel growth: Nestle is strengthening its core chocolate portfolio in wafer and milk products like KitKat Dessert Delight and Milky bar Moosha. It launched MAGGI Special Masala Noodles, MAGGI Dip and Spread, KITKAT Dessert Delight Brownie Kubes, NESCAFE E coffee machine and NESPLUS Breakfast Cereals. Nestle launched 39 new products in the past 2 years out of which 25 have been a success. New launches contributed 3% to the total domestic sales in 1H19 v/s 1.5% 2 years back, showing success of this strategy. Healthy innovation pipeline and high success rate will enable double digit volume growth. October 26,

2 Q2CY18 Results: Adjusted PAT up 32.3%, sales increases 16.9% led by Volume growth across categories Y/e Dec (Rs mn) Q3CY18 Q3CY17 YoY gr. (%) Q2CY18 CY18E CY17 YoY gr. (%) Net Sales 29,394 25, ,984 1,14,025 1,00, Gross Profit 17,552 14, ,094 67,423 56, % of NS Other Expenses 10,132 8, ,447 38,576 34, EBITDA 7,420 5, ,648 28,846 22, Margins (%) Depreciation ,523 3, Interest , Other Income ,523 1, PBT 6,886 5, ,150 26,742 19, Tax 2,257 1, ,003 8,771 6, Effective tax rate (%) Adjusted PAT 4,629 3, ,147 17,971 13, MAGGI enters low fat yogurt based Dip & Spread Segment KitKat Brownie Kubes and Nescafe E coffee machine Source: PL, Company October 26,

3 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Aug-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 (US$ / lbs) Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 (Rs / Quintal) (Rs / MT) Wheat prices has reached peak of Rs2058/Quintal 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,058 2,000 1,765 1,800 1,632 1,600 1,400 1,560 1,200 1,000 Palm oil softening; down 9.3% YoY and 0.8% QoQ 55,000 50,000 45,000 41,550 41,344 40,000 40,932 35,000 36,905 30,000 31,432 25,000 (Rs / Quintal) 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 Sugar prices up 10.9% QoQ 3,235 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 (Rs / Kg) SMP prices to remain benign; down 3% YoY Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Coffee Prices saw a sharp rebound from lows Cocoa prices soften, down 10.5% QoQ October 26,

4 Milk Prod; Volumes up 4.6%, Adj. Sales up 10.8% Beverages: Vol up 9.2%, Adj. Sales up 23.6% Sales Volume ('000 tons) Sales (Rs bn) (RHS) HCY16 1HCY17 1HCY Sales Volume ('000 tons) Sales (Rs bn) (RHS) HCY16 1HCY17 1HCY18 Prepared Dish: Volume up 12.8%, Adj. Sales 15% Chocolates: Volumes up 6.1%, Value 15.3% Sales Volume ('000 tons) Sales (Rs bn) (RHS) Sales Volume ('000 tons) Sales (Rs bn) (RHS) HCY16 1HCY17 1HCY HCY16 1HCY17 1HCY October 26,

5 Maggi sales bounce back sharply, Competition to keep Beverages and Dairy under pressure Y/e March CY15 CY16 CY17E CY18E CY19E CY20E Milk Products Volume (MT) 1,31,980 1,28,751 1,30,796 1,34,720 1,38,761 1,42,924 Volume growth -2.7% -2.4% 1.6% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Sales Value (Rs m) 46,694 46,350 48,196 51,380 55,567 60,096 Growth in Value 2.1% -0.7% 4.0% 6.6% 8.2% 8.1% % of sales 55.4% 49.3% 47.6% 45.3% 43.5% 41.7% Beverages Volume (MT) 22,130 22,092 24,423 26,255 28,224 30,256 Value (Rs m) 13,360 12,861 13,870 15,730 17,789 20,024 Growth in Volume -10.3% -0.2% 10.6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% Growth in Value -0.3% -3.7% 7.8% 13.4% 13.1% 12.6% %Sales 15.8% 13.7% 13.7% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% Prepared Dishes & Cooking Aids Volume (MT) 1,03,138 1,76,871 2,10,427 2,43,043 2,80,229 3,22,824 Value (Rs m) 13,141 23,176 27,071 32,518 38,993 46,717 Growth in Volume -59.5% 71.5% 19.0% 15.5% 15.3% 15.2% Growth in Value -55.6% 76.4% 16.8% 20.1% 19.9% 19.8% %Sales 15.6% 24.6% 26.7% 28.7% 30.5% 32.4% Chocolate & Confectionery Volume (MT) 33,083 35,289 36,803 39,563 42,530 45,933 Value (Rs m) 11,109 12,079 13,227 14,930 16,852 37,311 Growth in Volume -19.5% 6.7% 4.3% 7.5% 7.5% 8.0% Growth in Value -11.4% 8.7% 9.5% 12.9% 12.9% 121.4% %Sales 13.2% 12.8% 13.1% 13.2% 13.2% 25.9% October 26,

6 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E 3,226 3,559 3,955 4,455 5,252 4,996 5,060 5,810 6,603 7,546 Gross Margins have likely peaked out Ad-spend is likely to remain elevated Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%) (RHS) Adspends (Rs m) % Sales ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Poor growth post capex depressed return ratios Expect dividend payout to improve gradually ROE (%) ROCE (%) CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E October 26,

7 Financials Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e Dec CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E Net Revenues 100, , , ,981 YoY gr. (%) Cost of Goods Sold 43,269 46,602 53,159 60,006 Gross Profit 56,827 67,423 75,329 84,975 Margin (%) Employee Cost 10,175 11,375 12,848 14,499 Other Expenses 11,993 13,688 15,462 17,608 EBITDA 22,214 28,846 31,761 35,870 YoY gr. (%) Margin (%) Depreciation and Amortization 3,423 3,523 3,711 3,921 Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e Dec CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E Non-Current Assets Gross Block 55,779 57,951 60,835 64,285 Tangibles 55,779 57,951 60,835 64,285 Intangibles Acc: Dep / Amortization 29,618 33,550 37,711 42,127 Tangibles 29,618 33,550 37,711 42,127 Intangibles Net fixed assets 26,162 24,401 23,124 22,158 Tangibles 26,162 24,401 23,124 22,158 Intangibles EBIT 18,791 25,323 28,050 31,948 Margin (%) Net Interest 919 1,103 1,274 1,470 Other Income 1,769 2,523 3,391 4,233 Capital Work In Progress ,038 1,090 Goodwill Non-Current Investments 6,316 6,363 6,396 6,451 Net Deferred tax assets (1,220) (1,746) (2,241) (2,810) Other Non-Current Assets ,061 1,146 Profit Before Tax 19,641 26,742 30,167 34,711 Margin (%) Total Tax 6,141 8,771 9,895 11,385 Effective tax rate (%) Profit after tax 13,500 17,971 20,272 23,326 Minority interest Share Profit from Associate Adjusted PAT 13,500 17,971 20,272 23,326 YoY gr. (%) Margin (%) Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) (1,248) (1,285) (1,414) (1,555) Reported PAT 12,252 16,685 18,858 21,770 YoY gr. (%) Margin (%) Other Comprehensive Income (890) (500) (500) (500) Total Comprehensive Income 11,362 16,185 18,358 21,270 Equity Shares O/s (m) EPS (Rs) Source: Company Data, PL Research Current Assets Investments 28,276 37,963 50,809 62,909 Inventories 9,025 10,055 11,364 12,795 Trade receivables 890 1,088 1,226 1,383 Cash & Bank Balance ,414 1,702 Other Current Assets Total Assets 73,626 83,620 97, ,548 Equity Equity Share Capital Other Equity 33,241 37,474 44,808 50,993 Total Networth 34,206 38,438 45,772 51,957 Non-Current Liabilities Long Term borrowings Provisions 22,916 26,286 30,076 34,337 Other non current liabilities Current Liabilities ST Debt / Current of LT Debt Trade payables 9,846 10,214 11,651 13,152 Other current liabilities 5,081 6,578 7,223 7,935 Total Equity & Liabilities 73,626 83,619 97, ,548 Source: Company Data, PL Research October 26,

8 Cash Flow (Rs m) Y/e Dec CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E Key Financial Metrics Year Y/e Dec CY17 CY18E CY19E CY20E PBT 19,641 26,742 30,167 34,711 Per Share(Rs) Add. Depreciation 3,423 3,523 3,711 3,921 EPS Add. Interest 919 1,103 1,274 1,470 CEPS Less Financial Other Income 1,769 2,523 3,391 4,233 BVPS Add. Other (1,011) (534) (1,143) (1,598) FCF Op. profit before WC changes 22,972 30,835 34,009 38,504 DPS Net Changes-WC (5,387) (9,063) (12,202) (11,500) Return Ratio(%) Direct tax (6,141) (8,771) (9,895) (11,385) RoCE Net cash from Op. activities 11,444 13,001 11,912 15,619 ROIC Capital expenditures (1,343) (1,809) (2,484) (3,007) RoE Interest / Dividend Income 1,769 2,523 3,391 4,233 Balance Sheet Others (1,110) Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.8) (1.0) (1.1) (1.2) Net Cash from Invt. activities (683) ,226 Net Working Capital (Days) Issue of share cap. / premium Valuation(x) Debt changes PER Dividend paid (9,980) (11,952) (11,024) (15,086) P/B Interest paid (919) (1,103) (1,274) (1,470) P/CEPS Others EV/EBITDA Net cash from Fin. activities (10,861) (13,056) (12,298) (16,556) EV/Sales Net change in cash (101) Dividend Yield (%) Free Cash Flow 10,101 11,191 9,428 12,612 Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e Dec Q4CY17 Q1CY18 Q2CY18 Q3CY18 Net Revenue 26,015 27,572 26,984 29,394 YoY gr. (%) Raw Material Expenses 10,693 11,277 10,890 11,841 Gross Profit 15,322 16,296 16,094 17,552 Margin (%) EBITDA 6,449 7,119 6,648 7,420 YoY gr. (%) (6.6) 11.6 Margin (%) Depreciation / Depletion EBIT 5,612 6,294 5,830 6,490 Margin (%) Net Interest Other Income Profit before Tax 5,889 6,547 6,150 6,886 Margin (%) Total Tax 1,656 2,157 2,003 2,257 Effective tax rate (%) Profit after Tax 4,233 4,391 4,147 4,629 Minority interest Share Profit from Associates Adjusted PAT 4,233 4,391 4,147 4,629 YoY gr. (%) Margin (%) Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) (1,114) (151) (197) (168) Reported PAT 3,118 4,240 3,950 4,461 YoY gr. (%) Margin (%) Other Comprehensive Income (436) (182) (67) (61) Total Comprehensive Income 2,683 4,059 3,884 4,400 Avg. Shares O/s (m) EPS (Rs) Source: Company Data, PL Research October 26,

9 Price Chart Recommendation History (Rs) Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.) 1 10-Nov-17 Reduce 6,250 7, Jan-18 Reduce 6,250 7, Feb-18 UR - 7, Apr-18 UR - 8, Jul-18 UR 8,893 9, Aug-18 Hold 10,996 11, Oct-18 Hold 10,996 9, Oct-18 Accumulate 10,996 9,609 Analyst Coverage Universe Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs) 1 Asian Paints Accumulate 1,300 1,138 2 Avenue Supermarts Reduce 1,286 1,412 3 Britannia Industries Accumulate 6,588 5,625 4 Colgate Palmolive Reduce 1,084 1,069 5 Dabur India Hold Emami Accumulate Future Retail BUY GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Hold 7,382 6,552 9 Hindustan Unilever Hold 1,703 1, ITC BUY Jubilant FoodWorks Accumulate 1,395 1, Kansai Nerolac Paints Accumulate Marico Hold Accumulate 10,996 9, Pidilite Industries Accumulate 1, Titan Company BUY 1, Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Accumulate PL s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance) Buy : > 15% Accumulate : 5% to 15% Hold : +5% to -5% Reduce : -5% to -15% Sell : < -15% Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly October 26,

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