Ultratech Cement. Source: Company Data; PL Research

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1 Higher realisations drove the show; Price led recovery still away April 25, 2018 Kamlesh Bagmar Amit Khimesra Rating Accumulate Price Rs4,136 Target Price Rs4,500 Implied Upside 9.4% Sensex 34,501 Nifty 10,571 (Prices as on April 25, 2018) Trading data Market Cap. (Rs bn) 1,127.6 Shares o/s (m) M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) Major shareholders Promoters 62.16% Foreign 22.14% Domestic Inst. 5.55% Public & Other 10.15% Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 4.2 (8.3) (2.8) Relative (1.6) (12.8) (18.0) How we differ from Consensus EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff NA NA Price Perf. (RIC: ULTC.BO, BB: UTCEM IN) (Rs) 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 Apr 17 Jun 17 Source: Bloomberg Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 18 Apr 18 Ultratech (UTCEM) reported Q4FY18 earnings above our expectation on account of better realisations. Acquired plants of JPA (17mtpa) continued to ramp up ahead of schedule with utilisation at 75% in Q4 and exit rate of 84 85%. However, we cut our earnings estimates by 10%/12% for FY19E/FY20E factoring in lower realisations (on account of intense competition and overcapacity). Admittedly, earnings would remain under pressure in near term but given the strong pipeline of capacity addition (11mn tonnes (t) in next two years), smooth merger of JPA plants and quality operations, UTCEM would be well poised to exploit the price led recovery. We maintain Accumulate with TP of Rs4,500, EV/EBITDA of 16x FY20E. Improved region mix and narrowing of gap with peers led higher realisations: Volumes rose 31% YoY at 18.5m (PLe:18.1mn) t on the back of 23%/8% inorganic/organic growth. Driven by increase in share of volumes in central region and reduction in discount to its peers, realisations rose 4% YoY/Rs193 ( 2% QoQ/Rs97) at Rs4,811/t above our estimate of Rs4,733. Cost/t rose 5% YoY/Rs174 to Rs3,954 (PLe:Rs3,968) owing to 17%/6% increase in energy/freight cost. EBITDA/t rose 2% YoY at 857/t (PLe:Rs765/t). Hence, EBITDA rose 34% YoY/ 37% QoQ at Rs15.8bn (PLe:Rs13.8bn). Impacted by increase in depreciation/interest cost, Adjusted PAT fell 3% YoY at Rs6.3bn (PLe:Rs5.3bn). Key highlights of con call: 1) Cost of production of acquired plants higher by Rs125/t v/s own plants; expects to narrow down the gap on the back of change in fuel mix and higher efficiencies 2) East/West/North/Central/South based plants operated at 90%/82%/80%/76%/70% in Q4 3) 2.2mn clinker unit at Dalla (UP)/4mn grinding unit at Bara (UP)/3.5mn cement unit at Pali (Rajasthan) are expected to commission by Sep18/Q1FY20/FY20 4) All India demand grew by 8% YoY in FY18 5) Expecting capacity addition of 20 25mt in FY19 FY20 6) Petcoke cost to increase by 10% QoQ to US$110 in Q1FY19 (Up 20 22% QoQ in Q4) Key financials (Y/e March) E 2020E Revenues (Rs m) 250, , , ,403 Growth (%) EBITDA (Rs m) 49,291 56,295 66,495 80,117 PAT (Rs m) 27,149 25,413 28,564 38,835 EPS (Rs) Growth (%) 9.5 (6.4) Net DPS (Rs) Profitability & Valuation E 2020E EBITDA margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV / EBITDA (x) EV / Tonne ($) PE (x) P / BV (x) Net dividend yield (%) Source: Company Data; PL Research Q4FY18 Result Update Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report

2 Exhibit 1: EPS revised downward by 10%/12% for FY19e/FY20e FY19E FY20E Earlier Post revision % change Earlier Post revision % change Revenue (Rs mn) 380, ,878 (3.0) 438, ,403 (4.3) EBITDA (Rs mn) 72,362 66,495 (8.1) 89,262 80,117 (10.2) PAT (Rs mn) 31,752 28,564 (10.0) 44,110 38,835 (12.0) EPS (Rs) (10.0) (12.0) Volumes (mn tonnes) (2.0) (3.2) Realisation/t 5,026 4,966 (1.2) 5,197 5,128 (1.3) Total Cost/t 4,052 4, ,120 4, EBITDA/t (6.5) 1, (7.6) Source: PL Research Exhibit 2: Q4FY18 Result Overview (Rs m) Factoring in lower realisations and reduced volumes estimates, we revised downward our EPS estimates for FY19e/FY20E by 10%/12%. Our EBITDA estimates stand reduced by 8%/10%. Y/e March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY18 FY18E FY17 YoY gr. (%) Net Sales 88,810 64, ,710 2,93,630 2,36, Raw Material 14,786 11, ,310 46,797 40, % of Net Sales Staff Costs 4,192 3, ,628 17,062 14, % of Net Sales Power & Fuel 18,980 11, ,093 59,595 39, % of Net Sales Freight 22,750 16, ,634 72,816 58, % of Net Sales Other Expenses 12,289 10, ,541 42,798 37, % of Net Sales Total Expenditure 72,997 53, ,207 2,39,068 1,89, EBITDA 15,813 11, ,503 54,562 46, Margin (%) Depreciation 4,806 3, ,744 17,636 12, Other income 2,274 3,397 (33.1) 1,706 9,180 9,399 (2.3) EBIT 13,281 11, ,465 46,106 43, Interest 3,348 1, ,472 11,863 5, PBT 9,934 10,297 (3.5) 4,993 34,243 37,896 (9.6) Extraordinary income/(expense) (2,263) (137) 1,038 (1,225) (137) PBT (After EO) 7,671 10,160 (24.5) 6,031 33,018 37,760 (12.6) Tax 2,791 3,276 (14.8) 1,816 10,706 11,482 (6.8) % PBT Reported PAT 4,880 6,883 (29.1) 4,215 22,313 26,277 (15.1) Adjusted PAT 6,319 6,976 (9.4) 3,489 23,027 26,370 (12.7) Source: Company Data, PL Research April 25,

3 Exhibit 3: Operating Metrics Y/e March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY18 FY18E FY17 YoY gr. (%) Volume (m te) Net Blended Realisations (Rs/te) 4,811 4, ,714 4,843 4, EBITDA/ te (Rs/te) (3.7) Source: Company Data, PL Research April 25,

4 Income Statement (Rs m) Net Revenue 250, , , ,403 Raw Material Expenses 44,926 54,052 63,918 72,698 Gross Profit 205, , , ,705 Employee Cost 15,223 17,990 19,696 21,573 Other Expenses 141, , , ,015 EBITDA 49,291 56,295 66,495 80,117 Depr. & Amortization 13,484 18,207 20,393 21,509 Net Interest 6,401 12,490 13,761 12,561 Other Income 9,314 10,807 8,512 9,420 Profit before Tax 38,721 36,405 40,853 55,467 Total Tax 11,586 10,876 12,172 16,515 Profit after Tax 27,135 25,529 28,680 38,951 Ex Od items / Min. Int. (14) Adj. PAT 27,149 25,413 28,564 38,835 Avg. Shares O/S (m) EPS (Rs.) Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) C/F from Operations 49,935 38,898 53,879 66,172 C/F from Investing (24,685) (47,913) (22,244) (20,030) C/F from Financing (25,350) (31,460) (32,897) (31,862) Inc. / Dec. in Cash (100) (40,476) (1,262) 14,280 Opening Cash (39,742) (41,004) Closing Cash 734 (39,742) (41,004) (26,724) FCFF 29,895 (141,981) 28,627 17,804 FCFE 8,479 (30,684) 13,127 2,304 Key Financial Metrics Growth Revenue (%) EBITDA (%) PAT (%) 9.6 (6.4) EPS (%) 9.5 (6.4) Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (272) (171) (128) (101) Valuation PER (x) P / B (x) EV / EBITDA (x) EV / Sales (x) Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate Other Inc / PBT Eff. Depr. Rate (%) FCFE / PAT 31.2 (120.7) Source: Company Data, PL Research. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Shareholder's Funds 243, , , ,319 Total Debt 84, , , ,042 Other Liabilities 27,921 31,635 35,756 41,297 Total Liabilities 356, , , ,658 Net Fixed Assets 260, , , ,658 Goodwill 10,851 10,851 10,851 10,851 Investments 66,905 66,905 66,905 66,905 Net Current Assets 18,335 (8,938) (2,271) 18,648 Cash & Equivalents 22,488 (17,988) (19,250) (4,971) Other Current Assets 61,452 78,838 91, ,328 Current Liabilities 65,605 69,788 74,841 78,709 Other Assets Total Assets 356, , , ,162 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Net Revenue 64,780 74,710 88,810 EBITDA 12,580 11,503 15,813 % of revenue Depr. & Amortization 4,988 4,744 4,806 Net Interest 3,759 3,472 3,348 Other Income 2,614 1,706 2,274 Profit before Tax 6,447 6,031 7,671 Total Tax 2,135 1,816 2,791 Profit after Tax 4,312 3,177 7,142 Adj. PAT 4,312 4,215 4,880 Key Operating Metrics Grey Cement Vol. (mn te) White Cement Vol. (mn te) Clinker Sales Vol. (mn te) Grey Cement Real. (Rs/te) 4, , , ,605.4 White Cement Real. (Rs/te) 10, , , ,231.1 Clinker Real. (Rs/te) 2, , , ,105.4 Blended EBITDA/tonne (Rs) ,005.6 RM cost (Rs/ te) Power, Oil & Fuel (Rs/ te) , ,031.4 Freight Chrgs. (Rs/ te) 1, , , ,055.6 Source: Company Data, PL Research. April 25,

5 Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai , India Tel: (91 22) Fax: (91 22) Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL s Recommendation Nomenclature % of Total Coverage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 45.0% 44.2% 10.9% 0.0% BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1 month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1 month Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION We/I, Mr. Kamlesh Bagmar (CA), Mr. Amit Khimesra (MBA), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. 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PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report. PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. PL or its associates might have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have managed or co managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months or mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months PL or its associates might have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. PL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. PL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject Company or third party in connection with the preparation of the research report. PL or its Research Analysts do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Mr. Kamlesh Bagmar (CA), Mr. Amit Khimesra (MBA), Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. 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PL and its associates, their directors and employees may (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the subject company or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to the subject company or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. 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