SAFCO N: Weak Q2; Stock bottoming out Buy on further correction in H2
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- Eleanore Dawson
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1 Vol mn RSI10 Petrochemicals Industrial AB: Saudi Arabia US$7.20bn 40% US$2.257mn Market cap Free float Avg. daily volume Target price % over current Current price as at 25/7/2017 Underweight Underweight Neutral Overweight Performance Earnings estimates (SARmn) e 2018e Revenue y-o-y -19.5% -4.6% 15.2% Gross Profit margin 47.1% 45.8% 51.0% Net income y-o-y -51.4% -1.2% 32.9% net margin 36.2% 37.5% 43.2% (SAR) Price Close MAV50 Source: Bloomberg Existing rating MAV10 07/16 10/16 01/17 04/17 Relative to TADAWUL FF (RHS) EPS DPS Payout ratio 101% 102% % P/E (Curr) 25.7x 19.3x P/E (Target) 23.6x 18.1x Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital Research Department Pritish K. Devassy, CFA Tel , devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com N: Weak Q2; Stock bottoming out Buy on further correction in H2 Weak Urea prices (-20% q-o-q), higher cost impact on account of shutdown of III plant and lower equity income from Ibn Al-Baytar pushed Q2 earnings lower by 52% q-o-q to SAR204.3mn. Average Urea prices are now at US$183/t, the lowest level in a decade. We expect no meaningful recovery for Urea price in the near term (average price is already down ~9% q-o-q so far in Q3). On the other hand we also believe there is unlikely to be much downside from the current price. As per our estimates, Q3 and Q4 earnings may remain flattish (relative to Q2) as there are planned shutdowns and urea prices may remain tepid. Our target price for ranged from SAR60-62/share since the start of the year when the stock was trading above SAR 75/share and the stock has gradually declined to SAR63/sh. Post Q2 results, we lower our TP to SAR59/sh (and revise rating from Underweight to Neutral), implying downside of 7% from the current level. We believe the stock may see further correction in 2H, which may present better buying opportunities to position for an improvement in urea prices and increase in dividends. For now, we expect DPS of SAR2.5 for 2017 (yield: 4%) and SAR3 for 2018 (yield: 5.2%). The company is currently trading at a P/E of ~22.5x based on our 12 month forward EPS (19.3x 2018EPS) vs global fertilizer peers of 15.1x (Figure 5). Q2 Key highlights: a) Q2 revenue declined ~20% y-o-y to SAR679.5mn, primarily due to weak urea price and lower sales volume on account of likely shutdown of III plant, b) The company s 2016 board report stated that the company would close down its III plant for 20 days during 1H 2017 for maintenance, which seems to have taken place in Q2. However sale from existing inventories could have limited decline in sales volume, c) Despite only 20% q-o-q decline in top-line, Q2 gross profit slipped 41% q-o-q, impacted by higher cost due to shutdown which could have resulted in higher cost of production per tonne, d) Contribution from Ibn Al-Baytar fell in Q2, likely due to lower urea prices. Overall, lower revenue, higher operating costs and lower equity income from Ibn Al-Baytar pushed net profit 52% q-o-q lower to SAR204mn in Q2, missing our estimate of SAR241mn (consensus: SAR285mn) Why Urea price and spread may be lower in 2H 2017: Given that more that 90% of revenue comes from urea, s share price has been closely tracking product spreads in the past (Figure 1). We expect product-feedstock spread (i.e, primarily Urea minus Methane, weighed by % of revenue), to likely weaken sequentially owing to lower Urea prices this year, while its key feedstock cost, Methane remains fixed. Urea prices (US$183/t) are currently the lowest in a decade, weighed down by unfavourable demand & supply balance on account of new capacity additions and lower plant utilization rates (Figure 2). As per industry sources, global urea capacity is likely to increase by 5% y-o-y and 2.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively, while overall urea demand is expected to grow by 2.5% during the same period, indicating the current oversupply market condition may only marginally tighten in Consequently, we expect Urea prices may remain weak in 2017 but likely to recover in 2018, as higher demand growth could offset the incremental supply next year (Figure 3). Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. Al Rajhi Capital (Al Rajhi) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. Al Rajhi research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. Al Rajhi research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.
2 US$/t Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Spread ($/MT) Share Price (SAR) Figure 1 share price and weighted average product spread Spread Share Price Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital, Bloomberg Figure 2 Urea market to remain oversupplied Figure 3 Urea demand growth to improve from % 8.0% % 84.0% 82.0% 6.0% 4.0% % 78.0% 76.0% 74.0% 72.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% E 2018E 2019E 2020E 70.0% -6.0% E 2018E 2019E 2020E - Urea capacity (name plate) Urea demand Avg. Utilization Source:Greenmarkets, Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital Urea capacity growth (%) Urea demand growth (%) Avg. Urea prices (RHS)* Source: Greenmarkets,Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital. * Our estimates for Urea prices. Expect no recovery in Q3 as well: We believe s earnings could remain under pressure sequentially in Q3 on account of weak Urea prices coupled with lower sales volume, following planned shutdown of IV (84 days) and V (25 days) plants in H While dates of shutdown are not announced, we have assumed V plant to halt operation in Q3. IV s shutdown could take place across Q3 and Q4. Figure 4 : Summary of Q results (SAR mn) Q Q Q % chg y-o-y % chg q-o-q ARC est Revenue % -19.7% Gross profit % -41.5% Gross profit margin 46.4% 58.3% 42.5% 55.0% Operating profit % -52.5% Net profit % -51.7% Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 2
3 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Valuation: We revise our TP to SAR59/share based on equal mix of DCF and relative valuation (PE of 18x is above historical average as earnings growth is expected to pick up from a low base and urea prices are around its trough levels). However, we have revised our earlier Underweight rating to Neutral for after the stock declined ~8% since Q1 (~- 14% YTD). The stock is currently trading at a 12 month forward P/E of 22.5x. vs 15.1x ( global fertilizer peer average). We use only global fertilizer peers as it is not right to compare with Saudi petchem companies valuation multiples. Risks: Key upside risks to our price may arise from major shutdowns of Urea plants globally, delay or suspension of construction of newer Urea plants worldwide, sharp pick-up in demand which may be because of change in regulations across Asian countries (import tax in China, fertilizer import quota in India etc.) all of which could tilt the supply-demand balance in favour of suppliers. Other upside risks relate to increase in dividends, increase in stake of associates/subsidiaries which could help bring in some efficiencies. Downside risks may arise from further decline in Urea price and acquisition of associates/subsidiaries at expensive valuations. Figure 5 1Y Forward P/E trend 30.0x 25.0x 20.0x 15.0x 10.0x 5.0x Source: Bloomberg, Al Rajhi Capital 1Y Fwd P/E Average Max Min Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 3
4 Figure 6 Margins and Valuation Metrics - vs. global peers Saudi Arabia Market Cap (US$ 'mn) TTM OPM (%) TTM NPM (%) 2017E PE 2018E PE 2017E EV/EBITDA 2018E EV/EBITDA 7, x 19.3x 16.2x 14.4x MENA (ex-saudi Arabia) Israel Chemicals 6, x 12.6x 8.5x 7.6x Jordan Phosphate Mines NA NA NA NA Abou Kir Ferti. & Chim Ind. 1, NA NA NA NA Arab Potash/The 2, NA NA NA NA Europe K+S 5, x 14.4x 9.6x 7.0x Yara International 10, x 13.5x 8.1x 6.6x North America CF Industries 7, NA NA 14.1x 11.1x Mosaic 8, x 19.0x 10.5x 8.4x Potash Corp 15, x 25.8x 13.3x 11.9x Agrium 13, x 16.8x 10.3x 9.2x Latin America Sociedad Quimica y Minera de 9, x 25.5x 12.2x 11.6x Fertilizantes Heringer SA NA NA 4.7x 4.5x Asia China XLX Fertilizer x 5.0x 6.4x 5.7x Coromandel International 1, x 18.0x 13.4x 11.9x Engro Fertilizers x 6.6x 4.7x 4.5x National Fertilizers NA NA NA NA Phosagro 5, x 9.4x 6.7x 6.3x Taiwan Fertilizer Co Ltd 1, NA NA NA NA Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd x 9.3x 36.3x 17.4x Hubei Yihua Chemical Ind NA NA NA NA Acron PJSC 2, x 7.2x 6.7x 6.5x Luxi Chemical Group Co Ltd 1, x 11.7x 8.9x 8.1x PhosAgro PJSC 5, x 8.9x 6.5x 6.1x Dorogobuzh PJSC NA NA NA NA Median x 13.1x 9.3x 7.9x Average x 13.6x 10.9x 8.8x Source: Blooomberg, Al Rajhi Capital Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report. 4
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Figure 1 SAFCO Q1 results Q Q Q (SAR mn) Operating profit % 375.6% 347. Operating margin 47% 8% 30% 40%
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