me Theory ami Empirics of Exchange Rates
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1 me Theory ami Empirics of Exchange Rates Imad A Moosa Monash University, Australia Razzaque H Bhatti Gulf University for Science and Technology, Kuwait World Scientific NEW JERSEY LONDON SINGAPORE BEIJING SHANGHAI HONG KONG TAIPEI CHENNAI
2 Contents Preface List of Tables List of Figures List of Acronyms Currency Abbreviations vii xix xxi xxv xxvii 1. Why Do We Study Exchange Rates? Introduction The Importance of Exchange Rates The Exchange Rate and Business Operations The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Policy Macroeconomic Linkages Through Exchange Rates Stylized Facts and Figures Stylized Facts: Exchange Rates Only Stylized Facts: Spot Rates, Forward Rates, and Macroeconomic Variables Exchange Rates and Other Financial Prices: The Subprime Crisis as an Example Exchange Rate Regimes Exchange Rate Regime Classification Exchange Rate Regime Verification What Is to Come 22 IX
3 x The Theory and Empirics of Exchange Rates 2. Exchange Rate Determination in the Mundell-Fleming Model Introduction Disequilibrium Systems and Alternative Adjustment Mechanisms Efficacy of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates Dynamic Adjustment Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates.. _ Dynamic Adjustment and the Role of Capital Mobility The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policies Stabilization Policies Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates The Standard Mundell-Fleming Model Fundamental Propositions of the Mundell- Fleming Model The Structure of the Mundell-Fleming Model The Reduced Form Equation of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate The Current Account The Capital Account Stabilization Policies Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes Fixed Exchange Rates, Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policies Flexible Exchange Rates, Capital Mobility, and Stabilization Policies A Critique of Mundell's Results About Stabilization Policies McLeod's Critique of Mundell's Results Niehans's Doubts About the Efficacy of Monetary Policy..., Recapitulation 80
4 Contents xi 3. The Flexible-Price Monetary Model of Exchange Rates Introduction Key Propositions of the Flexible-Price Monetary Model The Specification of the Flexible-Price Monetary Model A Digrammatic Representation of the Flexible-Price Monetary Model ; Some Variants of the Flexible-Price' s Monetary Model The Rational Expectations Monetary Model Frankel's Flexible-Price Monetary Model with a Wealth Effect A General Monetary Model of Exchange Rates Policy Implications of the Flexible-Price Monetary Model Recapitulation The Theory of the Balance of Payments The Price-Specie Flow Mechanism The Elasticities Approach and the J-Curve Effect The Keynesian Multiplier Approach The Income Absorption Approach The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments Fundamental Propositions of the Monetary Approach A Simple Monetary Model of the Balance of Payments A Diagrammatic Representation of the Monetary Approach An Expanded Monetary Model of the Balance of Payments Policy Implications of the Monetary Approach A Comparison of the Monetary and Keynesian Models 143
5 xii The Theory and Empirics of Exchange Rates 4.7. A Synthesis of Monetary and Keynesian Approaches Recapitulation Exchange Rate Determination in the Dornbusch Model Introduction Fundamental Propositions of the Dornbusch Model In Defense of the Mundell-Fleming Model A Restatement of the Mundell-Fleming Model : Exchange Rate Expectations and Adjustment to Monetary Expansion Failure of the Marshall-Lerner Condition Exchange Rate Overshooting and Aggregate Spending Short- and Long-Run Views of Exchange Rates Exchange Rate Determination in the Short Run Exchange Rate Determination in the Long Run Interaction Between Goods and Asset Markets The Overshooting Model of Exchange Rates The Structure of the Dornbusch Model Adjustment to Monetary Expansion The Reduced Form Equation of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate Recapitulation Other Sticky-Price Monetary Models of Exchange Rates Introduction The Real Interest Differential Monetary Model Moderate Inflation and the Exchange Rate Expectations Scheme A More General Model of Exchange Rate Determination Driskell's Generalized Stock-Flow Sticky-Price Model The Dornbusch Model in Discrete Time The Stock-Flow Model 195
6 Contents xiii 6.4. The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Monetary Model The Expectation Mechanism and Exchange Rate Determination The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate /and Current Account The Reduced-Form Equation of Exchange Rate Determination The Impact of the Risk Premium on the Exchange Rate The Buiter-Miller Model with Core Inflation Rate Frankel's Sticky-Price Model with a Wealth Effect Recapitulation The Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Introduction The Exchange Market Pressure Model of Exchange Rates Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Independence A Simple Version of the Girton-Roper Market Pressure Model An Expanded Version of the Girton-Roper Market Pressure Model Recapitulation The Portfolio Balance Model of Exchange Rates Introduction The Portfolio Balance Effect of Wealth and the Exchange Rate The Current Account in the Portfolio Balance Model The Structure of the Portfolio Balance Model Short-Run Properties of the Portfolio Balance Model Stable Portfolio Balance and Short-Run Exchange Rate Determination Monetary Policy Effects on Exchange and Interest Rates Monetary Expansion via Open Market Purchases of Domestic Bonds 235
7 xiv The Theory and Empirics of Exchange Rates Monetary Expansion via Open Market Purchases of Foreign Bonds Sterilized Open Market Foreign Exchange Operations A Rise in Wealth via Accumulation * of Foreign Assets Fiscal Policy Effects on Exchange and Interest Rates Money-Financed Government Budget Deficit.' Bond-Financed Government Budget Deficit Alternative Specifications of the Portfolio Balance Model A Synthesis of the Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models The Portfolio Balance Model with a Banking Sector The Model The Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange and Lending Rates The Portfolio Balance Model with Bank Lending Recapitulation The Currency Substitution Model of Exchange Rates Introduction Currency Substitution and Dollarization Implications of Currency Substitution Determinants of Currency Substitution Exchange Rate Determination Under Currency Substitution The Calvo-Rodriguez Overshooting Currency Substitution Model Assumptions of the Model The Asset Market The Goods Market A Diagrammatic Illustration of the Currency Substitution Model The Importance of Currency Substitution in a Regional Setting 281
8 Contents xv 9.8. Some Policy and Analytical Issues Related to Currency Substitution Should Currency Substitution be Encouraged? Discouraging the Use of Foreign ' Currencies Currency Substitution and Nominal Anchors Monetary Expansion and the_real Exchange Rate Inflationary Finance under Currency Substitution Recapitulation ; The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates Macroeconomic Models: Failure and Alternatives The Microstructure Models of Exchange Rates Assumptions of Microstructure Models Exchange Rate Determination in Microstructure Models Information Models versus Inventory Models Factors Affecting Exchange Rates in Microstructure Models Order Flow The Bid-Offer Spread The Microstructure Solution to the Determination Puzzle The Microstructure Solution to the Excess Volatility Puzzle The Microstructure Solution to the Forward Bias Puzzle The Statistician's Perspective on Forward Bias The Economist's Perspective on Forward Bias The Practitioner's Perspective: Limits to Speculation 318
9 xvi The Theory and Empirics of Exchange Rates A Simple Explanation: Model Misspecification Recapitulation The News Model of Exchange Rates Intrqduction The Role of News in Macroeconomic Models of Exchange Rates The News Framework of the Flow Model The News Framework of the Monetary Models The News Framework of the Portfolio Balance Models The Role of News in the Microstructure Models of Exchange Rates The Link Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Exchange Rates The Link Between Order Flow and Macroeconomic News Recapitulation Empirical Evidence on the Macroeconomic Models of Exchange Rates Evidence on the Mundell-Fleming Model Evidence on the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates Evidence Based on Conventional Econometric Methods Out-of-Sample Forecasting Cointegration-Based Dynamic Models Simultaneous Equation Models Evidence on the Monetary Model Under Rational Expectations Evidence on the Monetary Model Allowing for Currency Substitution Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Model Evidence on the Role of News Evidence on the Exchange Market Pressure Model Recapitulation 377
10 Contents xvii 13. Empirical Evidence on the Microstructure Models of Exchange Rates Introduction The Explanatory Power of Order Flow Order Flow and Other Characteristics of Exchange Rates The Forecasting Power of Order Flow The Micro Impact of Macroeconomic News on Exchange Rates > Macroeconomic Fundamentals-Related News and Exchange Rate Changes Macroeconomic Announcements and Exchange Rates Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rate Mean and Variance Macroeconomic Announcements, Order Flow, and Exchange Rates A Microstructure Test of International Financial Integration Recapitulation Concluding Thoughts and Remarks Where Do We Stand? Rational Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market Exchange Rate Peculiarities Pitfalls in Exchange Rate Economics Alternative Approaches to Exchange Rates The Post-Keynesian Approach The Behavioral Finance Approach to Exchange Rates Chaos Theory Do Macroeconomic Fundamentals Matter? Concluding Remarks 442 References 443 Index 477
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