ECONOMIC GROWT: OF SINGAPORE IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

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1 >; ' ECONOMIC GROWT: OF SINGAPORE IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY Historical GDP Estimates and Empirical Investigations Ichiro Sugimoto Soka University, Japan I World Scientific NEW JERSEY LONDON SINGAPORE BEIJING ' SHANGHAI" 'HONG KONG TAIPEI;:- GHENNAI

2 Contents Preface Acknowledgments List of Tables List of Figures List of Maps List of Abbreviations vii ix xxiii xxxv xxxix xli Chapter One Introduction Objective of Study Literature Review Literature Review on Economic 3 History of Singapore prior to Independence Literature Review on the Construction of 9 Historical Statistics Literature Review on GDP Concepts 15 and Approaches 1.3 Statistical Sources and Possible Approach 19 for the Construction of GDP of Singapore 1.4 Layout of the Book 22

3 xii < Contents Chapter Two The Construction of Historical 27 Gross Domestic Product Estimates of Singapore, and at Current and Constant Prices 2.1 Introduction Overview on the Methodology 28 Employed for Estimation of Each Component of GDP 2.2 Private Final Consumption Expenditure by 35 Resident Households, and Definition Sources and Methods of Estimation 36 at Current Prices Direct Components Opium Consumption Education and Medical Fees Utility (Gas, Water Supply and 42 Electricity) Indirect Components Estimate of Population and 43 Consumption Standards (STEP 1),_, (I) Estimation of Mid-year 43 Population of Singapore for and (II) Consumption Standards Per-Capita Consumption 50 Expenditure by Standard for Base Year (STEP 2) (I) Pre-World War II Period 52 (a) The European Standard (1930) 52 (b) The Eurasian/Asiatic Clerical 52 Standards(1930) (c) The Indian Labor Standard 52 (1933)

4 Contents 4- xiii (d) The Malay and Chinese Labour Standards(1936) (i) Food (1936) (ii) Tobacco, Clothing and Rent (1936) (II) Post-World War II Period (a) The European, Malay Clerical and Chinese, Indian, Eurasian Clerical Standards (b) Chinese, Malay and Indian Labor Standards for the Year 1949 Construction of Consumer Price Indices and (1914 = 100) (STEP 3) Estimating the Per-Capita Final Consumption Expenditure of Major Objects of Consumption and Standards in 1914 Prices for Selected Years (STEP 4) The Real Wage Indices (STEP 5) Deriving Private Final Consumption Expenditure in Constant and Current Prices, and (STEPS 6-11) Private Consumption Expenditure by Resident Households 2.3 Government Final Consumption Expenditure Definition Source Materials and Methodology for Estimates Colony of Singapore, and

5 xiv Contents The Municipality of Singapore, , and the City Council of Singapore, Rural Boards Education Board Hospital Board Total Government Output of 83 Producers' of Government Services, and Government Final Consumption Expenditure 85 in Current Prices Government Final Consumption Expenditure 85 in 1914 Prices 2.4 Gross Capital Formation Definition Investment in Construction Definition Investment in Construction in 91 Current Prices Investment in Construction in Prices Investment in Transport, Machinery, and 95» Equipment Definition Investment in M&E in Current 98 Prices Investment in M&E in 1914 Prices Cultivated Assets Definition Investment in Cultivated Assets 104 in Current Prices Investment in Cultivated Assets 112 in 1914 Prices

6 Contents xv Change Net Exports of in Stock Definition Methodology for Estimates Change in Stocks in 1914 Prices Goods and Services Definition Merchandize Trade in Current Prices Series and Series Merchandize Trade and Its Adjustment Services Trade, and Observation of Post-1960's Official Data Exports of Bunker Coal and Petroleum to Foreign Ships Sale of Water to Foreign Ships Revenue Collection Using on Services Provided by the Singapore Harbour Board Revenue Collected by the Colony of Singapore Private Final Consumption ' Expenditure by Nonresidents in the Domestic Market External Trade of Goods and Services in Prices Construction of Import and Export 127 Unit Value Indices, and (1914 = 100) Series and Series Deflators for Port Services 137

7 xvi $ Contents Chapter Three The Result of GDP Estimates 139 in Singapore and Overall Patterns of Growth for the Twentieth Century 3.1 Introduction Results of GDP Estimates Assessment of GDP Estimates Consistency Check Unit Root Test Upturns and Downturns of Each Component 155 of GDP and Private Final Consumption 155 Expenditure in Current and 1914 Prices Government Final Consumption 157 Expenditure in Current and 1914 Prices Gross Capital Formation in 158 Current and 1914 Prices Net Exports of Goods and Services 160 in Current and 1914 Prices Exports of Goods and Services 161 ^ Imports of Goods and Services International Comparison Growth Rate of GDP and Its 166 Components Share of Each Component of GDP 174 to GDP 3.4 Overall Pattern of Singapore's GDP during the 174 Twentieth Century Transforming the Base Year from 1914 Prices 177 to 1990 Prices for the Period and Overall Patterns of Growth for the 180 Twentieth Century

8 Contents 4- xvii Growth Rate of GDP and Its 182 Component in the Twentieth Century Share of Each Component of GDP 184 Chapter Four Economic Instability and Economic 191 Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century. _. 4.1 Introduction Literature Review Declining Degree of Real GDP Volatility The Source of Real GDP Volatilities The Effect of Economic Instability to 201 Economic Growth Export Instability Annual Growth Rate of Exports 203 as a Proportion of GDP Terms-of-Trade Volatility Share of Investment to GDP Annual Growth Rate of 204 Government Final Consumption Expenditure as a Proportion *" of GDP Population Growth Gross Domestic Product Per 205 Capita with Time Lag Studies on Singapore Relating to This Issue The Extent of Economic Instability in Singapore Definition and Measurement of Output 212 Volatilities Economic Instability of GDP and 213 Its Components 4.4 Econometric Tests Explanation of Real GDP Volatilities Explanatory Variables Regression Results 225

9 xviii 4- Contents The Effect of Economic Instability on 228 Economic Growth Explanatory Variables Regression Results International Comparison Concluding Remarks 235 Chapter Five Government Fiscal Behavior and 237 Economic Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century 5.1 Introduction Literature Review Features of Colonial Government's Finance 239 Behavior Small Size of the Government Creation of Balanced Budget 242 Structure Weakness of the Colonial 248 Government Macroeconomic Management Summary Previous^Econometric Test on Government 248 ~* Expenditure and Economic Growth 5.3 Historical Transitions of the Government's Finance 257 Behavior of Singapore in the Twentieth Century Government Revenue Growth of Government Revenue Changes in Revenue Structure British Colonial Period ( and ) Self-Government Period 263 ( ) Government Expenditure Growth of Government Expenditure Changes in the Composition of 267 Government Expenditure

10 Contents Budget Surplus/Deficit and Financial Assets Summary Econometric Test Testing Methodology Data Empirical Results Unit Root Test Cointegration Tests Granger Causality Tests Concluding Remarks 4- xix Chapter Six Conclusion Significance of the Construction of Historical GDP Estimates of Singapore Major Findings Overall Patterns of Singapore's GDP for the Twentieth Century Economic Instability and Economic Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century Government Fiscal Behavior and Economic Growth in Singapore in the Twentieth Century 6.3 Limitations of this Study and Future 303 Research Area Appendices Appendix 1 Singapore:; Cost-of-Living Indices by Major Object of Consumption and Consumption Standard, Food Price Indices 2 Tobacco/Tobacco and Beverages Price Indices 3 Clothing Price Indices 4 Rent Price Indices 5 Servant Price Indices 6 Club Price Indices

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