Q Results. Melanie Kreis, CFO Analyst Presentation London, 11 May 2017

Transcription

1 Q Results Melanie Kreis, CFO Analyst Presentation London, 11 May 2017

2 Q HIGHLIGHTS Strong cash flow performance on steady EBIT development Continued growth in Parcel and Express volumes; Forwarding markets further recovering Topline growth accelerating as organic growth gains pace while FX and fuel headwinds weaken PeP EBIT only slightly up as working day effect partly offset by unusually slow start into the year Strong EBIT performance in Express and Supply Chain DGFF EBIT down despite continued productivity improvements industry growth encouraging although short term-burden Strong Cash Flow development supported by earnings performance and WC management 2017 EBIT guidance confirmed, tax rate expectation lowered to ~15% PAGE 2

3 GROUP P&L Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 13,872 14, % Organic revenue growth accelerating to +6%; FX and fuel effects subside EBIT % t/o PeP % Increase of 6% excl. DSC one-offs in previous year - perfectly on track to deliver on full-year targets Continued growth in German and international Parcel drives topline and EBIT growth working day effect partly offset by unusually slow start into the year t/o DHL % Strong performance in Express and Supply Chain balanced by DGF Financial result % Overall in line with last year Taxes % Tax rate of 15% reflecting new full year expectation Cons. net profit 1) % EBIT increase offset by slightly higher tax and minority charges EPS (in EUR) % 1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders PAGE 3

4 FREE CASH FLOW Q Strong cash flow performance: Seasonal factors still in play, but OCF turns positive, limiting usual Q1 FCF outflow EUR m Q Q Cash from operating activities before changes in Working Capital Changes in Working Capital 853-1, Q1 cash generation as every year affected by annual civil servant pension scheme contribution Strong OCF driven by good operating performance and lower changes in Working Capital reflecting balanced year-end 2016 cash management Net cash from operating activities after changes in Working Capital Net Capex Net M&A Net Interest -5-9 OCF improvement flows through to FCF as yoy slightly lower capex spend is balanced by lower contribution from net M&A reflecting asset sale (King s Cross) in Q Free Cash Flow FFO/Debt at 30.0% (year-end 2016: 30.6%) PAGE 4

5 NET DEBT (-)/LIQUIDITY (+) Net debt increase less pronounced than previous years although seasonal factors still valid (Annual contribution to civil servant pension for FY17: EUR 493m) in EUR m , Net debt (Dec 31, 2016) OCF after change in W/C Net capex Other effects Net debt (Mar 31, 2017) PAGE 5

6 PeP: GROWTH REMAINS DRIVEN BY PARCEL ACTIVITIES Mail Communication revenue Dialogue Marketing revenue Business Highlights m EUR -2.0% 1,724 1,690 Q Q Parcel Germany volumes m units Q % Q Parcel Germany revenue Parcel Europe revenue 1) DHL ecommerce revenue 2) m EUR % +70.3% 315 m EUR m EUR 1, % 1) Parcel Europe excl. Germany; Q restated for Iberia shift from Express (EUR 71m) 2) Parcel outside Europe 1,204 Q Q Q Q m EUR +13.7% 381 Q Q Q Q After unusually slow start into the year, volume development normalizing towards the end of the quarter - Mail Communication: -4.4% (-8.9% / WD) - Dialogue Marketing: +1.6 % (-3.1% / WD) Sustained growth in Parcel Germany. Positive yield development in business and private customer segments offset by product mix changes Parcel Europe now includes UK Mail. Adjusted revenue growth of 18.6% as well as continued strong growth at DHL ecommerce shows that we successfully build out & fill our international Parcel networks PAGE 6

7 PeP DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 4,272 4, % EBIT PeP % German and international Parcel activities drive organic growth of 3.2%, adjusted for UK Mail acquisition Small EBIT increase as German and international Parcel revenue growth was offset by slow start into the year in Germany t/o Germany % t/o International ecommerce - Parcel German EBIT stable as higher number of working days was offset by lower activity at start of year 4 13 >100% Including first-time contribution from UK Mail Operating Cash Flow >100% Mainly reflecting balanced year-end cash management in Q4 16 Capex % Continued growth investment into domestic and international Parcel, including electric vehicle fleet (StreetScooter) PAGE 7

8 EXPRESS: CONTINUED STRONG VOLUME AND YIELD DEVELOPMENT Time Definite International (TDI) 1) Revenues per day in EUR m 39.4 Q Time Definite International (TDI) Shipments per day 000s 763 Q % +8.0% 43.2 Q Q Business Highlights Unchanged strong growth with TDI shipment/day up +8.0% led by Europe (+12.7%), MEA (+11.5%), and Americas (+8.2%) Asia/Pacific volume growth of +1.7% reflects customer mix effects and yield management: APAC revenue/day actually up 6% excl. FX & fuel Fuel surcharge effect turned positive yoy, driving higher reported sales growth Unchanged strong focus on yield management Growth investments into network and service quality continue in ) Currency translation impacts are eliminated. Data aggregated with same currency rate PAGE 8

9 EXPRESS DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 3,181 3, % EBIT % Organic growth of +12.3% driven by strong TDI volume growth, yield management as well as positive contribution from fuel turnaround Continued strong EBIT performance. EBIT margin reduction is entirely due to passthrough of fuel price changes Operating Cash Flow % Operating cash flow development reflects strong business performance Capex % Capex decline reflects phasing effects, full-year expectation unchanged PAGE 9

10 GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT: STRONG VOLUMES AT WEAK GP AS MARKETS FURTHER RECOVER Air freight 000s Tons Air freight gross profit Business Highlights +13.9% -1.4% m EUR Q Q Q Q Ocean freight 000s TEU 1) Ocean freight gross profit +6.4% -0.6% m EUR Q Q Q Q Market recovery confirmed with significant growth in AFR and OFR volumes and DGF participating strongly Industry-wide GP pressure continued as a result of capacity constraints and price hikes during market turnaround: AFR GP/ton % and OFR GP/TEU -6.6% Internal productivity improvement making further progress with increase in units and files per FTE however not enough to offset temporary higher purchasing rate pressure IT renewal further advancing according to plan 1) Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit PAGE 10

11 GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 3,327 3, % Organic growth acceleration to +5.7%, reflecting strong volume development Gross Profit % Stable total GP as volume increase offset by lower GP/unit due to higher buying rates EBIT % EBIT down despite continued operational productivity improvement as additional costs to transact volume growth are not covered by GP development Operating Cash Flow % Strong improvement driven by WC movements, despite significantly higher volumes, a.o. reflecting less pronounced year-end cash management Capex % Usual low asset intensity PAGE 11

12 SUPPLY CHAIN: UNCHANGED SELECTIVE APPROACH PAYING OFF New signings, EUR m 1) Business Highlights 1) Annualized revenue 276 Revenue by sector Q Q Q Financial Services Engineering & Manufacturing Technology Automotive 12% 14% Others 3% 6% 5% 11% 24% 25% Retail Consumer Slower start to the year in terms of order intake after strong series of contract signatures before year-end Organic growth accelerating reflecting new business start-ups as well as overall business improvement Dynamic business development in all regions with highest growth rate in Asia Strongest sector growth contributions from Life Sciences & Healthcare and Technology Life Sciences & Healthcare PAGE 12

13 SUPPLY CHAIN DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 3,393 3, % Organic growth accelerated to +4.1% reflecting new business start-ups as well as dynamic business activity in all regions. FX remains slight headwind EBIT % EBIT up 11.2% adjusted for net effects of Q asset sale (EUR 63m) and restructuring (EUR -25m). Strong quarterly performance driven by restructuring benefits and business growth Operating Cash Flow % Improvement in line with good operating performance, supported by WC management Capex % Low asset intensity, yoy changes impacted by project timing PAGE 13

14 EBIT GUIDANCE CONFIRMED FOR 2017/20; 2017 TAX RATE LOWERED EBIT, EUR bn 2017 (confirmed) 2020 (confirmed) PeP ~1.5 ~ 3% CAGR DHL ~2.6 ~ 10% CAGR CC/Other ~ < 0.5% of group revenue Group ~3.75 > 8% CAGR FY 2017: Free Cash Flow: > EUR 1.4bn Tax rate: ~15% (from ~19%) Gross Capex: ~ EUR 2.3bn PAGE 14

15 WRAP UP Q puts us on track to deliver on 2017 targets Organic growth accelerating as we leverage opportunities through disciplined and targeted investments, notably across the full e-commerce logistics value chain EBIT performance confirms positive Divisional operational momentum although Forwarding markets remain in a turnaround phase Strong cash flow driven by good operating performance and focused WC management while generating attractive cash flow and investing significantly into the execution of our long-term strategic agenda We are in a strong position to deliver on Strategy 2020 PAGE 15