Q results Press presentation Bernard Bot, CFO 1 November 2010

Transcription

1 Q results Press presentation Bernard Bot, CFO 1 November 2010

2 Q3 results highlights Group Operating income 143 million ( 179 million in Q3 20) Underlying* operating income 157 million ( 184 million in Q3 20) Profit attributable to shareholders 75 million ( 99 million in Q3 20) Status Mail union discussions Ultimatum received from unions in relation to Master plan restructuring plans Continuing active engagement with unions Separation process & Vision 2015 Managerial and organisational separation of Mail and Express as per 1 January 2011 on track Intended separation as soon as practicable in 2011 Further update on 2 December 2010 Analysts Meeting, subject to the development of current discussions with Mail unions * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of the restructuring costs related to Mail ( 5m), Express ( 3m) and Group ( 13m separation-related and Vision 2015 one-off costs) in 2010 and the impact of various one-offs charges in 20 2

3 Q3 results highlights Express Underlying* revenues increased by 8.2% to 1,588 million Underlying* operating income 74 million ( 68 million in Q3 20) Strong volume growth; above 2007 levels (core kilos +9.8% versus Q3 20) Continued focus on yield improvement full effect to be realised in 2011 Mail Underlying* revenues increased by 5.6% to 1,010 million Underlying* operating income 83 million ( 114 million in Q3 20); distorting impact of pension costs Underlying* Cash EBITDA 47 million ( 71 million in Q3 20) Addressed mail volumes in the Netherlands declined by 7.7% alongside some yield pressure Parcels continues to grow strongly; announcement of 240 million Parcels investment programme, * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of the restructuring costs related to Mail ( 5m), Express ( 3m) and Group ( 13m separation-related and Vision 2015 one-off costs) in 2010 and the impact of various one-offs charges in 20 3

4 Statement of income Actual Q Underlying * Q Underlying * Q3 20 Actual Q3 20 millions Actual YTD Q Underlying * YTD Q Underlying * YTD Q3 20 Actual YTD Q3 20 2,766 2,662 2,483 2,483 Revenues 8,284 7,888 7,455 7, EBITDA Operating income (EBIT) (35) (37) Net financial (expense) / income (106) (118) (34) (40) Income taxes (119) (124) 31.5% 28.2% Effective tax rate 34.7% 31.8% Profit for the period EPS ( cents) * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of the restructuring costs related to Mail ( 5m), Express ( 3m) and Group ( 13m separation-related and Vision 2015 one-off costs) in 2010 and the impact of various one-offs charges in 20 4

5 impact of one-off charges and fx millions Q Q3 20 YTD Q YTD Q3 20 Express Reported EBIT Restructuring related costs Fx Working days Impairments and other value adjustments Underlying EBIT 78 3 (7) (17) (22) (2) Mail Reported EBIT Restructuring related costs Fx Impairments and other value adjustments Working days Bookgain sale Aspac Underlying EBIT (9) (15) (20) 402 5

6 Express Q3 underlying Volumes and revenue above 2007 levels; yield pressure continues Good cost containment in Europe; relatively less scale outside Europe millions Q * Q3 20 * Organic Acq Total Revenues 1,588 1, % 0.0% 8.2% EBITDA % 0.0% -3.9% Operating income (EBIT) % 0.0% 8.8% Operating margin 4.7% 4.6% * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of the restructuring costs ( 3m) in 2010 and the impact of various one-offs charges in 20 6

7 Express underlying operating income Operating income development millions Volume Underlying Q3 20 impact (cons) Price Cost per con Emerging Platforms* Brazil Comm air linehaul Underlying Q Actions taken Note: indicative only * Excluding Brazil and commercial linehaul Emerging Platforms 7

8 Express 2010 volumes versus prior year and % 10% 5% 0% Core kilos* versus prior year Core cons* versus prior year Core cons* versus 2007 Core kilos* versus % -10% -15% Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 * Average per working day 8

9 Express yield remains negative % chg YoY (excluding fuel), at comparable rates 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Core RPC Core revenue quality yield Core RPK -6% -8% -10% Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 9

10 Yield improvement programme full impact 2011 Improved customer and product mix General price increase for customers on standardised tariffs Contract-specific price increase Surcharges Target average price increase 1.0% 3.5% 2.0% % revenues affected 100% 30-35% 65-70% The impact on profitability of these indicative figures must be understood in the context of the net of cost inflation and cost efficiencies. Note: Figures indicative only 10

11 Geographic areas to capture high-tech business in China TNT positioned for Domestic and International growth through its best in class HOAU domestic network and rapidly expanding intercontinental capability International consignment growth vs % 20% ~70% of production 10% Chengdu, Chongqing Upcoming area 0% -10% Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Production goes West, originating from East and South Source:China Ministry of Information Industry 11

12 Mail Q3 underlying Addressed Mail volumes -7.7% Price pressure and higher pension costs constrained results Parcels continues to grow strongly millions Q * Q3 20 Org Acq Total Revenues 1, % 0.2% 5.6% EBITDA % 2.1% -22.4% Operating income (EBIT) % 3.5% -27.2% Operating margin 8.2% 11.9% * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of the restructuring costs ( 5m) in

13 Mail underlying operating income Operating income development millions Underlying Q3 20 Volume/ price Other and cost inflation Extra pension Master plan Emerging Mail & Parcels Underlying Q Note: indicative only 13

14 Reconciliation Cash EBIT(DA) Mail Q Q3 20 Underlying EBITDA Changes in pension liabilities (47) (59) Restructuring cash outflow (17) (13) Underlying Cash EBITDA as percentage of revenues 4.7% 7.4% Underlying EBIT Changes in pension liabilities (47) (59) Restructuring cash outflow (17) (13) Underlying Cash EBIT as percentage of revenues 1.9% 4.4% Q3 YTD (151) (44) % 378 (151) (44) % Q3 YTD (146) (36) % 402 (146) (36) % 14

15 Parcels strategic development Express Capitalise on fast-growing e-commerce market Investment 240 million new hybrid sorting-depot locations TNT Post Pakketservice YoY %chg volumes 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Volumes up more than 50% in 5 years YTD Q

16 Pension developments Coverage ratio main defined benefit pension fund: End of % End of % End of % End of Q % By end of September, coverage ratio is below minimum required level Recovery payment in Q Full year P&L cost expected to be around 65 million in 2010 (around 56 million of which in H2 2010), cash contributions increasing slightly to around 290 million Reducing downward risk by use of derivative instruments 16

17 Update Mail unions Chain of events 15 March 2010, social plan and CLA approved by union members Summer 2010, announcement of Master plan III impact on staff 28 October ultimatum presented to TNT by unions Fewer involuntary redundancies Slowing of Master plan III implementation 8 November deadline TNT continues active engagement with unions 17

18 Progress on separation process Process Works councils advice 1 January 2011: managerial and operational separation Full separation as soon as practicable thereafter Considerations Strong balance sheets for both new entities Potential accounting and regulatory issues Balancing stakeholder interests Update on separation New management teams New business plans Analysts Meeting 2 December

19 Outlook 2010 Overall Modest improvement European economy Global economic recovery remains fragile caution is warranted Focus on costs and cash will continue Express Mail Other Volumes and revenues expected to be well above 20 levels H operating margin to be in line with H s Specific yield-management and ongoing cost-containment actions Addressed volume decline in the Netherlands 7-9% Master plan savings of somewhat more than 75 million Mail operating income expected to be below 20 levels Structural cost savings: at least 200 million Capex around 300 million Pensions: cash contributions defined benefit obligations around 290 million Net financial expense: around 140 million Taxes paid: around 300 million Separation-related and Vision 2015 one-off costs million New guidance on further Master plan III restructuring provisions and associated cash outflows will be given once further clarity has been achieved given current union discussions 19

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