Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think?

Transcription

1 Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think? Josh Mitchell and Adam Bee U.S. Census Bureau December 14, 2017 The views expressed in this research, including those related to statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues, are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the Census Bureau. The author accepts responsibility for all errors. This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. This presentation reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Census Bureau staff. It has undergone more limited review than official publications.

2 Motivation Broad concern about well-being of Americans as they near and enter retirement Have people saved enough? Data quality concerns as well Discrepancies between survey income aggregates and other data sources such as National Income and Product Accounts and administrative records (ADREC) By themselves, aggregate discrepancies cannot address questions about the distribution of income 2

3 Contributions Bring unique data sources together to develop new, nationally representative estimates of median household income and poverty for the population 65+ through 2012 Explore which ADREC data sources are most important for our findings Reassess Importance of DB and DC income for current retirees Relative importance of Social Security income Transition to retirement (Retirement Consumption Puzzle) 3

4 Data I: 2013 CPS ASEC Approximately 75,000 households 15,000 households with householder age 65+ Represents civilian noninstitutionalized population Source for official 2012 Income and Poverty Report Uses traditional income questions PVS Process to assign Protected Identification Key (PIK) Logit to estimate inverse probabilities and reweight PIK sample 4

5 Validating Five Types of Income in CPS ASEC Earnings (wages and self-employment) Social Security (OASDI) Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Dividends and Interest Retirement Income (excludes Social Security) Retirement Survivor Disability 5

6 Money Income and the CPS ASEC Stream of regular payments Challenge of changing retirement landscape Shift from Defined Benefit (DB) to Defined Contribution (DC) Treatment of as-needed withdrawals, lump-sums, rollovers 2014 CPS ASEC Redesign Adds specific questions about retirement account withdrawals Address underreporting of asset income Semega and Welniak (2015) Compare traditional and redesigned income questions Find 4.6% increase in median income for householders aged 65+ 6

7 2013 CPS-ASEC Retirement Income Question During 2012 did (you/ anyone in this household) receive any pension or retirement income from a previous employer or union, or any other type of retirement income (other than Social Security/ other than VA benefits/ other than Social Security or VA benefits)? What was the source? 1 Company or union pension (INCLUDE PROFIT SHARING) 2 Federal Government (CIVIL SERVICE) retirement 3 U.S. Military retirement 4 State or Local government pension 5 U.S. Railroad Retirement 6 Regular payments from annuities or paid up insurance policies 7 Regular payments from IRA, KEOGH, 401(k), 403(b), and 457(b) and (f) accounts 8 Other sources or don t know 7

8 Data II: ADREC Data from SSA Earnings Wage and salary earnings from all W-2 jobs Self-employment earnings from Schedule SE OASDI Benefits Includes deductions for Medicare premiums SSI Benefits Federal and state supplements 8

9 Data III: ADREC Data from IRS Form 1040 Total dividend income, taxable and tax-exempt interest income Complications for joint filers and non-filers Form 1099-R Gross distributions from pensions, annuities, retirement or profit-sharing plans, IRAs etc. (DB and DC income) Available even if do not file 1040 INCLUDES Early Distributions Normal Distributions Disability and Death Distributions Roth Distributions EXCLUDES Direct Rollovers Conversions and Recharacterizations Excess Contributions Section 1035 Exchanges 9

10 More on Form 1099-R Our extract has two categories IRA (Roth, traditional, SIMPLE, SEP) Reported on line 15 of Form 1040 Employer Sponsored Reported on line 16 of Form 1040 Alternative income concept When distribution permanently leaves tax-preferred accounts and is available for consumption Short and Skog (2014), Iams and Purcell (2013) May not be able to exclude indirect rollovers Under 3% of aggregate gross for age 55+ (Argento et al., 2015) 10

11 Constructing New Income Variables Merge on PIK to assign ADREC income to CPS at person-level Complication with 1040s (joint returns and non-filers) Replace CPS income amounts with corresponding ADREC amounts Those with PIKs but who do not match to a given ADREC have zero of that type of income Those without PIKs keep CPS values Outside of five sources of validated income just using CPS values Sum up to family and household levels as needed 11

12 CPS Income as Percent of ADREC 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Earnings Social Security SSI Interest Retirement and Income Dividends All Five Sources Age Age 65+ Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 12

13 What are Distributional Implications? Median household income Householders age 65+ Explore subgroups classified by demographic characteristics of householder Poverty Persons age 65+ Compare family income to threshold which varies by family size Three samples in analysis Full CPS sample (N=23,000 persons, 15,000 households) PIK reweighted sample (N=21,000 persons, 13,500 households) ADREC sample (same as PIK sample but replaced with ADREC income) 13

14 Median Household Income (Householder Age 65+) $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $33,848 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 14

15 Median Household Income (Householder Age 65+) $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $33,848 $34,037 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 15

16 Median Household Income (Householder Age 65+) $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $33,848 $34,037 $44,371 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 16

17 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Median Household Income (Householder Age 65-74) $42,343 $42,939 $52,118 $0 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 17

18 Median Household Income (Householder Age 75-84) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $28,517 $28,566 $38,982 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 18

19 Median Household Income (Householder Age 85+) $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $22,800 $22,875 $30,325 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 19

20 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Median Household Income (Family Householder Age 65+) $49,196 $49,375 $62,144 $0 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 20

21 Median Household Income (Non-Family Householder Age 65+) $30,000 $27,196 $25,000 $20,000 $20,856 $20,954 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 21

22 Median Household Income (College Graduate Householder Age 65+) $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $60,083 $60,700 $78,231 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 22

23 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Median Household Income (Some College Householder Age 65+) $36,452 $36,521 $47,137 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 23

24 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Median Household Income (High School Graduate Householder Age 65+) $29,362 $29,514 $37,690 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 24

25 $25,000 $20,000 Median Household Income (Less than High School Householder Age 65+) $19,769 $19,917 $23,381 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 25

26 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Median Household Income (White, Not Hispanic Householder Age 65+) $35,559 $35,789 $46,811 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 26

27 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Median Household Income (Black Householder Age 65+) $25,182 $25,272 $32,224 $0 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 27

28 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Median Household Income (Asian Householder Age 65+) $37,445 $37,855 $47,526 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 28

29 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Median Household Income (Hispanic Householder Age 65+) $24,122 $23,803 $30,016 $0 FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 29

30 Comparison to 2013 SCF Designed to collect detailed wealth information Retirement account withdrawals Same calendar year reference period (2012) More expansive definition of income Capital gains Withdrawals Food stamps Generally shows higher incomes than CPS for population

31 Median Household Income (Householder Age 65-74) $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $42,939 $45,244 $52,118 $0 PIK CPS SCF ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 31

32 Median Household Income (Householder Age 75+) $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $35,908 $26,610 $28,093 PIK CPS SCF ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 32

33 Poverty Rate (Persons Age 65+) FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 33

34 Poverty Rate (Persons Age 65+) FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 34

35 Poverty Rate (Persons Age 65+) FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 35

36 Poverty Rate (Persons Age 65-74) FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 36

37 Poverty Rate (Persons Age 75-84) FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 37

38 Poverty Rate (Persons Age 85+) FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 38

39 Which ADREC Source Is Driving our Results? Examine each percentile of the household income distribution Replace CPS income sources one at a time Rerank households based on modified income Compute percent change for each percentile relative to CPS baseline 39

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46 Potential Issues Quality of ADREC Quality of data linkages Alternative income concepts Treatment of D.C. withdrawals versus D.B. Haig-Simons Taxable income, Disposable Income (NIPA) Federal Reserve Bulletin CPS Redesign 46

47 Correlation Coefficient Correlation of Log ADREC and CPS Income (Persons Age 65+, Intensive Margin) Earnings Social Security SSI Retirement Retirement (No IRA) 47

48 Percent with Any Social Security Income (Persons Age 65+) 100% 80% 84% 85% 86% 60% 40% 20% 0% FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 48

49 Percent with Any Retirement Income (Persons Age 65+) 100% 80% 60% 40% 36% 37% 61% 20% 0% FULL CPS PIK CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 49

50 1099-R Income Receipt (Persons Age 65+) 100% 80% 60% 50% 61% 40% 29% 20% 0% ADREC-Employer ADREC-IRA ADREC-Either Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 50

51 What Explains Retirement Income Underreporting? Demographic variables explain about 5 percent of variation Survey design features another 2 percent American Community Survey shows similar false negative rate Nature of 1099-R income matters the most 14 percent IRA versus Employer-sponsored Amounts Volatility 51

52 Concern about Single Year 1099R Distributions Are these mainly lump-sums or recurring payments? Indirect rollovers or other amounts we would want to exclude? Compare TY 2012 and TY R distributions for those receiving a TY 2012 distribution Look across age distribution Compare results for employer-sponsored and IRAs 52

53 Percent of Persons Any 1099R Employer Income in 2013 (Conditional on Employer Income in 2012) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 95% 98% 97% 85% 52% 32% 21% Age Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 53

54 Percent of Persons Size Distribution of R Employer Change (Conditional on Employer Income in 2012) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 86% 83% 78% 58% Drop > 10% 30% Change <= 10% 3% 7% Increase > 10% Age Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 54

55 Percent of Persons Any 1099R IRA Income in 2013 (Conditional on IRA Income in 2012) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 97% 97% 87% 61% 38% 45% 23% Age Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 55

56 Percent of Persons Size Distribution of R IRA Change (Conditional on IRA Income in 2012) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 62% 53% Drop > 10% 35% Change <= 10% 16% 4% 4% 8% Increase > 10% Age Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 56

57 Underreporting of Defined Benefit Income? Examine Specific Government Retirement Plans Traditional DB plans, satisfy money income concept Examine CPS responses for persons age 65+ who receive 1099-R distribution from: Civil Service Retirement System Military Retirement Fund CALPERS 57

58 Reported Receipt Among 1099-R Annuitants (Age 65+, Excludes Imputations) Any ES Fed CSRS Military CalPERS Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 58

59 Relative Importance of Different Income Sources Income of the Aged chartbook for population 65+ Previous edition also based on 2013 CPS-ASEC Focus on aged units How does increase in ADREC retirement income affect relative importance of all income sources? 59

60 Social Security Receipt Rate (Among Aged Units) Overall ADREC Total Income Decile CPS ADREC Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 60

61 Social Security Unconditional Mean Amounts (Among Aged Units) $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 CPS ADREC $ Overall ADREC Total Income Decile Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 61

62 Retirement Income Receipt Rate (Among Aged Units) CPS ADREC Overall ADREC Total Income Decile Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 62

63 ADREC Retirement Income Receipt Rate by Type (Among Aged Units) Total D.B IRA Employer D.C Unknown Overall ADREC Total Income Decile Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 63

64 80,000 ADREC Retirement Income Unconditional Mean Amounts (Among Aged Units) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Total Retirement D.B. IRA Employer D.C. Unknown Overall ADREC Total Income Decile Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 64

65 CPS Income Shares Across Deciles (Among Aged Units) CPS Income Decile Earnings Social Security SSI Int/Div Retirement Other Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 65

66 ADREC Income Shares Across Deciles (Among Aged Units) ADREC Income Decile Earnings Social Security SSI Int/Div Retirement Other Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 66

67 ADREC Retirement Income Shares Across Deciles (Among Aged Units) ADREC Income Decile D.B. IRA Non-IRA D.C. Unknown 67 Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC

68 Percent of Aged Unit Beneficiaries with Social Security at least 50 Percent of Income 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 65% 64% 50% Full CPS Sample CPS PIK Sample Linked CPS-Admin Sample Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 68

69 Percent of Aged Unit Beneficiaries with Social Security at least 90 Percent of Income 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36% 36% 18% Full CPS Sample CPS PIK Sample Linked CPS-Admin Sample Source: 2013 CPS ASEC-ADREC 69

70 Long-run Trends Use archived ADREC to construct consistent measures of income and poverty over time and compare to survey values Income quantiles (1990, 1995, ) CPI-U-RS used to put in 2012 dollars Poverty rates 1990,1995,

71 $90,000 Income Quartiles, Aged 65 and Over $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30, th percentile Median $34,400 Linked SIPP-Admin $44,400 $33,800 Linked CPS-Admin Full ASEC Sample $28,700 $20,000 $10, th percentile $

72 Poverty Rates, Aged 65 and Over 20% 15% 10% 5% Full CPS Sample Linked CPS-Admin Sample 0%

73 Aged 65 and Over 100% 91% Linked SIPP-Admin SS Linked CPS-Admin SS 80% 91% CPS Survey SS 86% 84% 60% 45% Linked SIPP-Admin Retirement 61% Linked CPS-Admin Retirement 40% 40% 36% CPS Survey Retirement 20% 0%

74 Retirement Transition Relative metric How well are pre-retirement living standards maintained? Retirement Consumption Puzzle Absolute metric Do we observe increases in poverty? Synthetic cohort approach (enhanced with ADREC) Compare two income measures Observe living arrangements 74

75 Sample Construction Pool linked CPS-ASEC samples Individual-level analysis First claimed Social Security between Aged 60 to 70 when first claimed Did not claim SSDI Survived at least 5 years after claiming Income treatment of married couples and single individuals 75

76 Median Incomes for Men (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 CPS ASEC $10,000 $0 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 76

77 Median Incomes for Men (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 CPS ASEC ADREC $10,000 $0 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 77

78 Median Incomes for Women (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 CPS ASEC ADREC $10,000 $0 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 78

79 Proportion of Men Below 100% Poverty (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim CPS ASEC ADREC Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 79

80 Proportion of Men Below 200% Poverty (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) CPS ASEC ADREC t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 80

81 Proportion of Men Below 300% Poverty (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim CPS ASEC ADREC Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 81

82 Proportion of Women Below 100% Poverty (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim CPS ASEC ADREC Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 82

83 Proportion of Women Below 200% Poverty (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) CPS ASEC ADREC t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 83

84 Proportion of Women Below 300% Poverty (Years Surrounding Social Security Claim) t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Years from Social Security Claim CPS ASEC ADREC Source: CPS ASEC linked to administrative records 84

85 Summary of Retirement Transition Incomes fall much more in survey than in ADREC Income declines start several years prior to claiming, no abrupt changes at retirement No evidence that poverty rises in either series 200 and 300 percent poverty rises much more in survey than in ADREC Inconsistent with Retirement Consumption Puzzle 85

86 Caveats to Our Overall Findings Only examine incomes of the population aged 65 and over through 2012 Cannot easily extrapolate findings to future retirees Income may not capture all aspects of material wellbeing (rising debt levels) Analysis of retirement transitions cannot answer whether people run out of money many years later 86

87 Thank You and Contact Josh Mitchell C. Adam Bee 87