Updating Social Protection Spending Data and The Social Protection Atlas

Transcription

1 Global Benchmarking: Updating Social Protection Spending Data and The Social Protection Atlas ODI International Conference on Financing Social Protection in LICs: Finding the Common Ground Philllippe Leite and Ruslan Yemtsov (World Bank) May 26,

2 Outline Motivation and elements of benchmarking Review of the past attempts/existing datasets Current work: SP Atlas Next steps and plans 2

3 Motivation Need to build empirical evidence for social policy in the global world. Benchmark safety protection programsacrossacross countries andacrossacross time. Need to provide regular country wide assessment focusing on the social protection system and its elements programs, their funding, rules, reforms the incidence of programs (coverage, amounts) and impact (!) Provide open and easy to access data for policymakers, civil society, it World ldbank staff tffand other stakeholders. tkhld Provide evidence for the dialogue with data collectors/ statisticaloffices for improvinghousehold data. 3

4 Elements of benchmarking Types of social protection programs Inventory of programs Financing of programs Aggregated spending data Mi Main indicators of performance Sources Comparisons/Benchmarking 4

5 Types of Social Protection Programs Category I Category II Type of program Pensions and other social insurance Labor market programs Social safety net programs Old age Survivors Occupational injury/sickness benefits Disability Unemployment Active labor market programs Cash or near-cash transfers Conditional cash transfers In-kind food transfers Fee waivers and scholarships General subsidies Public works yp p g Old age pension Old age civil servant pension Veteran's old age pension Early retirement pension Survivors pension Survivors civil servant pension Occupational injury benefits/ pension Paid sick leave Disability pension Unemployment compensation Severance pay Early retirement for labor market reasons Labor market training Youth measures Subsided employment Employment measures for disabled Employment service and administration Low income/ Last-resort program Non-contributory/ Social pension Family allowances* Disability benefits Housing allowances Food stamps/ Vouchers Conditional cash transfers Food rations Supplementary feeding School feeding Energency food distribution Fee waivers, education Scholarships Fee waivers, health Food price subsidies Public distribution systems Energy and utility subsidies Public works 5

6 Existing resources ILO: ( / / / ) maintains data on social security coverage by schemes with large gaps for poor countries. The data on LAC produced by CEPAL contain excellent periodicallyupdated data from all countries in the region, but they pertain to CCTs only ( ) Global database of social assistance by International chronic poverty center has many gaps and is not dynamic ( in developing countries database/ss ). UNDP Poverty Center: povertycentre.org maintains i dt data on selected programs and evalautions 6

7 Limitations of existing resources These sources provide primarily program level information Programs are presented regardless of size Different methodologies (not comparable) Do not look at impact on beneficiaries, or on national level outcomes Big gaps in country coverage. No attempt to cover SI/SA and LM equally These attempts t do not look at systems! Very little insight i on synergies/overlaps/gaps Nodata oncoverage as a rule, whencoverage indicators are used: individual, not household perspective (which is the one that matters for welfare outcomes) Little on nothing on private/public /h /charity interactionsi Data access is one of the main limiting factors.

8 Social spending: Review IMF Government Finance Statistics (GFS): Annual statistical data on revenue, expense, transactions in assets and liabilities, and stocks of assets and liabilities of general government and its subsectors as reported by member countries. IFRPI Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED): Public expenditure information for 67 countries in six sectors: agriculture, education, health, defense, social protection, and transportation and communication, from 1980 through public expenditure data now online ILO Global Extension of Social Security (GESS): Statistics and indicators on social security calculated on the basis of administrative data World Bank Weigandand Grosh (2008): Database compiled from individual World Bank country reports Discussion papers/safety Nets DP/0817.pdf xls 8

9 C.WEIGAND AND M. GROSH DATABASE (1) It presents overall level of spending and breakdown by social assistance, social insurance and labor market programs across 87countries (the widest group of countries so far). However, it remains a snapshot pertaining to (latest figures). Italso focused on overall spending levels and has not included all useful institutional details about the actual mix of programs that exist. Mostly based on WB reports and documents (250 documents) Outcome: remains authoritative source of data to date 9

10 C.WEIGAND AND M. GROSH DATABASE (2) Lessons learned: 1. Quantifying spending on social protection is difficult because the conceptual definition does not fit within a single ministry s mandate. 2. GFS by IMF does not have a category that matches the concept of social protection. It lumps much SA with social insurance to come up with a single figure for social security and welfare, other social assistance may fall under the transfers to households and other, some will be reported in the accounts of the ministries. 10

11 Social spending: Recent WB efforts Existing data are useful but must be seen with caution: In most of the cases the Social Protection spending is aggregated SP components not harmonized affecting cross countrycountry comparisons Time series jumps due to inclusion or exclusion of SP components as subsidies Not regularly updated World Bank increased efforts to compile such information: Regional efforts from SPteams in ECA and LAC Anchor recent proposal to : Create an evidence base for a debate about the use of social protection to promote pro poor poor growth Periodically updated Partnership with other institutions Harmonizing interventions Allowing for differentiation of interventions and cross country analysis Map existing social protection systems in LIC to identify parts which can be scaled up in the event of crisis. 11

12 Example: Europe and Central lai Asia Social lprotection ti Dtb Database, World ldbank 12

13 Example: Europe and Central lai Asia Social lprotection ti Dtb Database, World ldbank 13

14 Benchmarking performance of SP: past efforts Luxembourg Income Study projects offers all types of capabilities But LIS hosts HH surveys data from 200+ surveys from 36 countries, for some covering the entire period ( Poverty lines use relative poverty line to allow comparisons (% of median) Detailed ldharmonized dlist of social transfers and (and other incomes and taxes) Facility to conduct analysis, produce tables or download key figures using harmonized household data Works with statistical offices to expand the scope of surveys/use data Coverage is limited (only 5 countries in developing world), capacity (3 persons) Archived data are not easily accessible to all (us) No standard techniques/indicators to assess program performance 14

15 SPA: Strengths and Limitations Benchmarks SP programs coverage, impact and performance for 70+ countries Based on standard techniques/indicators to assess program performance and is easily updated Helps to conduct on demand policy analysis or regional products Poverty lines: either absolute or relative poverty line to allow comparisons All values expressed in $PPP But has few limitations. For example: Relies ontheexistent existent Household Surveysinformation Coverage starts in the 2000 s Large set of countries have limited information on benefits from SP programs in the household surveys, and even less collect data on coverage (i.e. health/pension insurance etc.) 15

16 SPA: Country at a glance table Source: SPA 2011, World Bank 16

17 SPA: Country at a glance Source: SPA 2011, World Bank 17

18 SPA: Country at a glance Source: SPA 2011, World Bank 18

19 SPA: Region at a glance Source: SPA 2011, World Bank 19

20 SPA: Region at a glance Source: SPA 2011, World Bank 20

21 SPA: Countries processed AFR Ghana 2005 ECA Macedonia 2005 MNA Egypt 2008 AFR Kenya 2005 ECA Poland 2005 MNA AFR Mauritius 2005 ECA Romania 2008 MNA AFR Malawi 2004 ECA Russia 2007 MNA Jordan Morocco Yemen AFR Nigeria 2004 ECA Serbia 2007 MNA West Bank/Gaza 2007 AFR Rwanda 2005 ECA Turkey 2008 EAP Cambodia 2008 EAP Indonesia 2005 EAP Lao 2008 EAP Malaysia 2008 EAP Mongolia 2007 EAP Philippines 2006 EAP Thailand 2009 EAP Timor Leste 2007 EAP Vietnam 2006 ECA Ukraine 2006 LAC Argentina 2006 LAC Bolivia 2006 LAC Brazil 2006 LAC Chile 2006 LAC Colombia 2003 LAC Costa Rica 2008 LAC Dominican Rep 2007 LAC Ecuador 2008 LAC El Salvador 2005 ECA Armenia 2008 LAC El Salvador 2007 ECA Azerbaijan 2008 LAC Guatemala 2006 ECA Belarus 2008 LAC Honduras 2007 ECA Bosnia 2007 LAC Jamaica 2002 ECA Bulgaria 2007 LAC Mexico 2008 ECA Georgia 2007 LAC Nicaragua 2005 ECA Hungary 2004 LAC Panama 2008 ECA Kazakhstan 2007 LAC Paraguay 2007 ECA Kosovo 2006 LAC Peru 2008 ECA Kyrgyzstan 2006 LAC Suriname 1999 ECA Latvia 2008 LAC Uruguay 2008 ECA Lithuania 2004 LAC Venezuela 2006 SAR Afghanistan 2007 SAR Bangladesh 2004 SAR Bhutan 2007 SAR India 2005 SAR Maldives 2004 SAR Nepal 2003 SAR Pakistan 2005 SAR Pakistan 2008 SAR Sri Lanka Source: SPA 2011, World Bank 21

22 SPA: Web outputs Region at Glance (excel file) Country at Glance (excel file) All ADePT SP indicators for each country INI and DO files for running country specific outcomes (e.g. setting a different poverty line) Aggregated by program Program specific Document explaining the aggregation 22

23 Proposed project Will go over Nov 2011 June 2013 to produce: Tools and templates for harmonizing data collection on Social lprotection ti programs; Data platform on institutional features of key SP programs and spending on them (2005 latest) for LICs and lower middle income countries; Several capacitybuilding workshops in client countries; global knowledge sharing event; Reports and briefs on benchmarking the cost and results achieved in individual SP programs and systems for a selected group of countries. Do be done jointly with you 23

24 Innovations Benchmarking the performance of individual SP programs relating their costs with results by linking to the Social Protection Atlas a new global information system createdby the HD Anchorin cooperation with regional HD SP and PREM poverty teams to benchmark key performance indicators of social protection in terms of inequality and poverty reduction; New systems angle: new SP inventory template will include information on linkages of each program with others (building on work under the new SP&L strategy and in LAC); Expanding the coverage of Sub Saharan countries (Grosh and Weingand database covered only 9 countries on the continent); Simplifying and adjusting templates to allow dynamic rather than static data presentationand and facilitate future update of information. 24

25 Conclusion Long way to go to reach main objectives Build empirical evidence for social protection across countries Provide regular country wide assessment focusing onthesocial protection system and its elements programs, their funding, rules, reforms the incidence of programs (coverage, amounts) and impact (!) Provide open and easy to access data for all. Provide evidence for improving data quality and dialogue with data collectors/ statistical offices for improving household data. Require collaboration/partnership with you 25