How can Pope County continue to provide services for its citizens?

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2 Pope County

3 How can Pope County continue to provide services for its citizens? What factors and trends are impacting county services and funding sources? Which of these can the county control or influence In the short-run? In the long-run? What are anticipated changes that might affect the county s fiscal health? What might the county do to eliminate or minimize the impact of anticipated changes?

4 Population Pope County Population Estimates, ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 The population of Pope County increased 17% from 54,300 in 1999 to 63,800 in Data Source: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

5 Data Source: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau Population Change,

6 Data Source: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau Population Change,

7 Employment Pope County Total Employment Estimates, ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Employment in Pope County increased from 31,400 in 1999 to 35,600 in 2016 or 13%. How will future employment levels impact the county's fiscal situation? Data Source: Employment Estimates, Regional Economic Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis

8 Employment Change, Data Source: Employment Estimates, Regional Economic Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Employment Change, Data Source: Employment Estimates, Regional Economic Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 Pope County

11 Constant 2015 Dollars (Millions) Pope County Total Revenue & Expenditures, $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Total Revenue Total Expenditures *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. Total revenue received by Pope County increased 23% between 1999 and 2015, from $17.2 million to $21.2 million. Expenditures increased from $17 million in 1999 to $19.6 million in 2015 (15%), and spiked to $20.5 million in County revenue exceeded expenditures in 11 of 17 years. Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 Change in Total Revenue, Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 Change in Total Expenditures, Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 Pope County Per Capita Revenue & Expenditures, Constant 2015 Dollars $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Revenue per Capita *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. Expenditures per Capita While per capita revenue and expenditures followed similar trends to the overall measures discussed previously, the per person measures increased at a slower rate than the overall measures. Per capita revenue was $334 in 2015, $26 more than per capita expenditures ($308). Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 Per Capita Total Revenue, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

16 Per Capita Total Expenditures, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

17 Pope County

18 Share of Total Revenue Pope County Revenue Sources as a Percent of Total Revenue, 1999 and % 25% % 15% 10% 5% 0% Intergovernmental Property Tax Sales Tax Officers, Jail & 911 Commissions & Fines, Forfeitures & Other Revenue Revenue Fees Taxes Apportioned Franchise Taxes *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. The share of total revenue from intergovernmental transfers increased from 17% in 1999 to 21% in Pope County property tax revenue as a share of total revenue was 24% in 1999, and less in 2015 (19%). The share of total revenue from sales tax declined slightly, from 21% to 19%. The share of total revenue from officers, jail & 911 fees increased from 22% in 1999 to 27% in Data Source: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

19 Share of Total Revenue Pope County Revenue Sources Compared to State Revenue Sources % Pope County State 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Intergovernmental Property Tax Sales Tax Officers, Jail & 911 Commissions & Fines, Forfeitures & Other Revenue Revenue Fees Taxes Apportioned Franchise Taxes *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. The share of total revenue from sales tax in Pope County in 2015 was 19%, lower than the statewide average (24%). The share of total revenue from property tax was 19% in the county in 2015, less than the statewide average of 23%. The share of total revenue from intergovernmental transfers in the county was 21% in 2015, less than the statewide average (22%). Data Source: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

20 Constant 2015 Dollars (Millions) Pope County Major Sources of Revenue, $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $ Intergovernmental Revenue Property Tax Sales Tax Sales tax revenue in Pope County increased 11%, from $3.7 million in 1999 to $4.1 million in Despite fluctuating, property tax revenue in the county was $4.1 million in 1999 and Pope County's total intergovernmental revenue fluctuated widely but grew 47% overall, from $3 million in 1999 to $4.4 million in Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Pope County Per Capita Major Sources of Revenue, Constant 2015 Dollars $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Intergovernmental Revenue Property Tax Sales Tax Trends in per capita major revenue sources were similar to the overall trends discussed in the previous slide. However, population growth caused the per capita measures to increase at a slower rate/decrease at a faster rate than the overall measures. Intergovernmental revenue per capita was $69 in Pope County in 2015, more than sales tax ($64.3) and property tax ($64.2) revenue per capita. Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 Per Capita Total Intergovernmental Revenue, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

23 Change in per Capita Total Intergovernmental Revenue, Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 Per Capita Property Tax Revenue, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

25 Change in per Capita Property Tax Revenue, Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

26 Per Capita Sales Tax Revenue, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

27 Change in per Capita Sales Tax Revenue, Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

28 Constant 2015 Dollars (Millions) Pope County Minor Sources of Revenue, $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $ Officers, Jail & 911 Fees Fines, Forfeitures & Franchise Taxes Commissions & Taxes Apportioned Other Revenue Officers, Jail and 911 Fees increased greatly in Pope County (50%), from $3.8 million in 1999 to $5.7 million in Commissions and taxes apportioned grew significantly, from $812,700 to $1.2 million or 47%. Fines, forfeitures and franchise taxes increased 20%, from $785,200 in 1999 to $943,400 in Other revenue was $1.1 million in 1999 and $859,500 in 2015, a decline of 19%. Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

29 Pope County Per Capita Minor Sources of Revenue, Constant 2015 Dollars $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Officers, Jail & 911 Fees Fines, Forfeitures & Franchise Taxes Commissions & Taxes Apportioned Other Revenue Trends in per capita minor revenue sources were similar to the overall trends discussed on the previous slide. However, as a result of population growth, the per capita measures increased more slowly/decreased more rapidly than the overall measures. Officers, jail & 911 fees per capita in Pope County were $90 in 2015, more than commissions & taxes apportioned ($19), fines, forfeitures and franchise taxes ($15), and other revenue ($14). Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

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31 Share of Total Expenditures Pope County Expenditures for Services Provided 1999 and % % 30% 20% 10% 0% Law Enforcement Highways & General & Other Health & Social Recreation & Capital Outlay Debt Service & Public Safety Streets Services Culture *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. Law enforcement & public safety was the largest share of Pope County government spending in 1999 and 2015, and increased during the study period, from 38% to 41%. The share of total spending for highways & streets grew from 21% in 1999 to 24% in The share of total spending for general & other expenditures rose slightly, from 13% in 1999 to 14% in Data Source: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

32 Share of Total Expenditures Pope County Expenditure Shares Compared to State Expenditure Shares % Pope County State 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Law Enforcement Highways & General & Other Health & Social Recreation & Capital Outlay Debt Service & Public Safety Streets Services Culture *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. Pope County's share of expenditures from law enforcement and public safety (41%) was slightly more than the statewide share (39%) in Highways and streets spending in the county accounted for about the same size share of total spending as the statewide average (24%). The share of total county expenditures for general and other expenditures was 14%, far less than the statewide average (26%). Data Source: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

33 Constant 2015 Dollars (Millions) Pope County Major Category Expenditures, $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Law Enforcement & Public Safety Highways & Streets General & Other Law enforcement and public safety expenditures in Pope County increased 23%, from $6.5 million in 1999 to $8 million in 2015, reaching a high of $10.9 million in Highways and streets spending increased 34%, from $3.5 million in 1999 to $4.7 million in General and other spending grew considerably, from $2.2 million in 1999 to $2.8 million in 2015 or 27%. Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

34 Pope County Per Capita Major Category Expenditures Constant 2015 Dollars $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Law Enforcement & Public Safety Highways & Streets General & Other Trends in per capita major category expenditures were similar to the overall trends discussed on the previous slide. However, population growth caused the per capita measures to decrease at a slower rate/increase at a faster rate than the overall measures. Law enforcement & public safety per capita spending in Pope County was $126 in 2015, more than highways & streets ($75) and general & other ($44) expenditures. Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 Per Capita Public Safety Expenditures, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

36 Change in per Capita Public Safety Expenditures, Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

37 Per Capita Road Expenditures, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit

38 Change in per Capita Road Expenditures, Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

39 Pope County Road Expenditures Per County Road Mile, Constant 2015 Dollars $6,000 Pope County State $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Road expenditures per county road mile in Pope County were more than the statewide average in 16 of 17 years between 1999 and During the same period, road expenditures per county road mile increased 37% in the county compared to growth of 52% statewide. In 2015, road expenditures per county road mile in the county were $4,100, about $300 more than the statewide average ($3,800). Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; Road & Street Report, Arkansas Highway and Transportation Department

40 Constant 2015 Dollars (Millions) Pope County Minor Category Expenditures, $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $ Health & Social Services Recreation & Culture Capital Outlay Debt Service Health & social services expenditures in Pope County increased significantly, from $80,702 in 1999 to $2.6 million in Recreation & culture spending in the county increased significantly (28%), from $1.1 million to $1.4 million. Capital outlay expenditures decreased from a high of $5.2 million in 2000 to $0 in Debt service spending in Pope County decreased 97%, from $763,300 in 1999 to $21,800 in Data Sources: Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

41 Pope County Per Capita Minor Category Expenditures Constant 2015 Dollars $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Health & Social Services Recreation & Culture Capital Outlay Debt Service Trends in minor expenditures per capita were similar to the overall trends on the previous slide. However, population growth in Pope County cause the per capita measure to grow at a slower rate/decrease at a faster rate than the overall measures. Health & social service per capita expenditures were $42 in 2015, more than recreation & culture ($22), debt service ($0.3), and capital outlays ($0). Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Revenue and Expenditure Statements, Arkansas Legislative Audit; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

42 Pope County

43 Constant 2015 Dollars (Billions) Pope County Total Property Assessments, Property assessments in Pope County increased 28%, from $903.6 million in 1999 to $1.2 billion in Data Sources: Assessed Values, Arkansas Assessment Coordination Department; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

44 Constant 2015 Dollars Pope County Per Capita Property Assessments, $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Pope County State Per capita property assessments in the county exceeded the statewide average every year between 1999 and Trends in per capita property assessments were similar to the overall trends discussed on the previous slide, but population growth caused the per capita measures to increase at a slower rate/decrease at a quicker rate than the overall measures. Per capita property assessments in the county were $18,300 in 2015, about $2,400 more than the statewide average ($15,900). Data Sources: Assessed Values, Arkansas Assessment Coordination Department; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

45 Constant 2015 Dollars (Billions) Pope County Total Retail Sales, *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. Retail sales in Pope County increased 153%, from $343.4 million in 1972 to $869.4 million in Retail sales reached a high of $1 billion prior to the Great Recession in Data Sources: Census of Retail Sales, U.S. Census Bureau; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

46 Constant 2012 Dollars Pope County Per Capita Retail Sales, $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ Pope County *Due to rounding, bars may appear slightly higher or lower than the values stated on this slide. Per capita retail sales in the county exceeded the statewide average every year between 1972 and Trends in per capita retail sales were similar to the overall trends discussed on the previous slide, but population growth caused the per capita measures to increase at a slower rate/decrease at a quicker rate than the overall measures. Per capita retail sales in the county were $13,900 in 2012, about $1,400 more than the statewide average ($12,500). Data Sources: Census of Retail Sales, U.S. Census Bureau; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau State

47 Capacity: Capacity and Effort The maximum amount that can be produced when all the resources in an economy are employed as fully as possible. Capacity constraints can be caused by lack of investment and skills shortages. Spare capacity can be caused by lack of demand. Effort: The amount to which a county utilizes its ability to generate revenue through taxation.

48 Capacity: Property Tax Capacity and Effort High capacity = County s per capita property assessments were above the state average. Low capacity = County s per capita property assessments were below the state average. Effort: High effort = County s millage rate was above the average of Arkansas counties. Low effort = County s millage rate was below the average of Arkansas counties.

49 Property Tax Capacity & Effort, 2015 Data Sources: Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; Property Assessments and Millage Rates, the Arkansas Assessment Coordination Department

50 Capacity: Sales Tax Capacity and Effort High capacity = County s per capita retail sales were above the state average. Low capacity = County s per capita retail sales were below the state average. Effort: High effort = County s sales tax rate was above the average of Arkansas counties. Low effort = County s sales tax rate was below the average of Arkansas counties.

51 Sales Tax Capacity & Effort, 2012 Data Sources: Census of Retail Sales and Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau; South Urban CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Sales Tax Rates, Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration

52 Options for Providing Services to Pope County Residents Increase cost effectiveness Improve management and productivity Explore possibility of privatizing services Consider intergovernmental agreements to offer shared services Increase revenue Alternative (new) revenue sources User charges, shift tax burden to non-residents Expand the tax base Increase tax rates Reduce Services

53 Contact For more information and assistance on county government finance options, contact: Phil Sims, CEA - Staff Chair 105 West B St. Russellville, AR Tel: , Fax: Visit Our Website: The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.