Bill McClean President IC Insights, Inc.

Transcription

1 Keynote Speaker G THE DRAMATIC RESTRUCTURING OF THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT INDUSTRY by Bill McClean President IC Insights, Inc. et ready for some really good news as keynote speaker Bill McClean of IC Insights addresses "The Dramatic Restructuring of the Integrated Circuit Industry". In IC Insights opinion, the bottom of the current cycle in the worldwide economy and IC industry was reached in 2012 and 2013 will mark the beginning of the next cyclical upturn one in which the IC industry CAGR will more than triple to 7.4% in the next 5-year period. T ABSTRACT hroughout 2012, the expectations for global economic growth consistently deteriorated and global GDP expanded by only 2.6%. It should be noted that 2.5% or less worldwide GDP growth is typically considered a global recession. However, IC Insights forecast for 2013 worldwide GDP growth is 3.2%, with increasingly better growth expected for the global economy through The IC industry is set to emerge from a difficult 5-year period of minimal growth. From , the IC market grew at an average annual rate of 2.0%. In IC Insights opinion, the bottom of the current cycle in the worldwide economy and IC industry was reached in 2012 and 2013 will mark the beginning of the next cyclical upturn one in which the IC industry CAGR will more than triple to 7.4% in the next 5-year period. Overall, semiconductor industry cycles are becoming increasingly tied to the health of the worldwide economy. While poor semiconductor industry growth has occurred during periods of strong worldwide economic growth, primarily due to semiconductor industry overcapacity and the resulting IC price declines, it is rare to have strong semiconductor industry growth without at least a good worldwide economy to support it. Thus, over the next five years, annual global semiconductor market growth rates are expected to gain significant momentum and closely mirror the performance of worldwide GDP growth. COPYRIGHT NOTICE The paper(s) in this publication comprise the Proceedings of the 2013 BiTS Workshop. The content reflects the opinion of the authors and their respective companies. They are reproduced here as they were presented at the 2013 BiTS Workshop. This version of the papers may differ from the version that was distributed in hardcopy & softcopy form at the 2013 BiTS Workshop. The inclusion of the papers in this publication does not constitute an endorsement by BiTS Workshop, LLC or the workshop s sponsors. There is NO copyright protection claimed on the presentation content by BiTS Workshop, LLC. (Occasionally a Tutorial and/or TechTalk may be copyrighted by the author). However, each presentation is the work of the authors and their respective companies: as such, it is strongly encouraged that any use reflect proper acknowledgement to the appropriate source. Any questions regarding the use of any materials presented should be directed to the author(s) or their companies. The BiTS logo and Burn-in & Test Strategies Workshop are trademarks of BiTS Workshop, LLC. All rights reserved. BiTS Workshop 2013 Archive

2 THE DRAMATIC RESTRUCTURING OF THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT INDUSTRY Bill McClean, President IC Insights Keynote Address Conference Ready 2/18/ BiTS Workshop March 3-6, 2013 Presentation Outline Global Economic Trends and New IC Cycle Model IC Market Trends Capital Spending and Capacity Trends Summary March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 2 1

3 Global Economic Trends March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 3 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 4 2

4 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 5 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 6 3

5 i Correla on Coeffic ent Worldwide GDP and IC Market Growth Correla on Coefficient History and Forecast ( ) Japanese Co's Ramp Produc on 0.44 S. Korean & Taiwanese Co's Ramp Produc on Consolida on Gains Momentum Company Consolida on Begins F 2016F Timeperiod March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 7 Worldwide GDP Breakdown ( F) Country/Region 2011 GDP 2011 GDP GDP 2012 GDP F GDP 2013F GDP 2013F Growth % ($ Trillions) (% of Total) Growth % ($ Trillions) (% of Total) Growth % ($ Trillions) (% of Total) Developed Countries U.S. 1.7% % 2.2% % 2.4% % Eurozone 1.5% % -0.8% % -0.3% % Japan -0.7%* % 1.5% % 1.4% % U.K. 0.7% % -0.1% % 1.3% % Canada 2.4% % 2.1% % 2.3% % Australia/NZ 2.2% % 3.7% % 3.0% % Total Developed 1.3% % 1.0% % 1.3% % Emerging Markets 6.2% % 5.2% % 5.9% % Worldwide Total 3.2% % 2.6% % 3.2% % China** 9.2% % 7.8% % 8.1% % India** 7.1% % 5.6% % 6.2% % *Forecast was 1.5% before the earthquake Source: World Bank, IMF, IC Insights **Included in Emerging Market figures March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 8 4

6 China Market's Impressive Number One Rankings 2010 Market 2011 Market 2012 Market 1, Millions of Units PC* Cellphone Auto Digital TV System *Not including tablet PCs March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 9 China IC Market vs. IC Produc on Trends 150 China IC Market ($B) China IC Produc on ($B) $148 Billions of Dollars $42 IC Produc on Share of China IC Market: 2005: 6.1% 2012: 11.2% 2017F: 13.1% $79 $75 $48 $54 $56 $55 $81 30 $19.4 $2.5 $3.5 $4.6 $4.9 $4.2 $5.9 $8.2 $ F Year March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 10 5

7 5 Year Average Annual Worldwide GDP Growth Rates 4.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% Global Recession Threshold (2.5%) Percent 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Year Timeperiod March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address Worldwide GDP vs. IC Market Growth Scenarios 2013 Worldwide GDP Growth 2013 Worldwide IC Market Growth %* <3% % 3-7% % 8-12% 3.8% >12% * 2.5% = Global Recession March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 12 6

8 IC Market Trends March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 13 5 year Rolling IC Market ($) CAGR Trends Percent 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 14.0% 19.8% 16.7% 17.1% 14.1% 12.7% 25.0% 20.8% 19.1% 10.6% 84/89 85/90 86/91 87/92 88/93 89/94 90/95 91/96 92/97 93/98 94/ % AVG. 8.1% 6.9% 0.6% 0.2% 95/00 96/01 97/02 Timeperiod 6.6% 5.1% March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address % 12.7% 12.1% 8.0% 98/03 99/04 00/05 01/06 02/07 03/08 0.7% 4.9% 3.3% 2.1% 04/09 05/10 06/11 07/12 7

9 5 year Rolling IC Unit CAGR Trends Percent 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 7.2% 13.4% 10.5% 8.0% 7.2% 7.1% 7.7% 6.8% 12.0% 9.2% 10.9% 12.9% 84/89 85/90 86/91 87/92 88/93 89/94 90/95 91/96 92/97 93/98 94/99 95/00 9.1% AVG. 7.4% 9.0% 9.1% 6.2% Timeperiod March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address % 14.9% 14.0% 11.3% 6.3% 9.6% 6.4% 4.3% 96/01 97/02 98/03 99/04 00/05 01/06 02/07 03/08 04/09 05/10 06/11 07/ Quarterly IC Unit Volume Shipment Trend Billions of Units Q00 24% Above Trend 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 Source: WSTS, IC Insights 9.5% Annual Trend Line (99 04) 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 14% Annual Trend Line (05 07) 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 Quarter 1Q07 3Q08 15% Above Trend 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q10 13% Above Trend 3Q09 1Q10 6.0% Trend Line Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 16 8

10 Capital Spending and Capacity Trends March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 17 Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending Trends ( ) Capital Spending Percent Change % 106% 100% Billions of Dollars % % 37% 52% % % 6% % % % % F Year 75% 50% 25% 2% 0% 25% 50% Annual Change March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 18 9

11 Semiconductor Capital Spending as a Percent of Semiconductor Sales Capital Spending % of Semi Sales Capital Spending Change 35% 130% Capital Spending % of Semi Sales 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 31% 8% 11% 26% 25% 22% = Capital Spending as a % of Sales Trendline 85% 28% 21% 14% 26% 14% 18% 37% 29% 18% 52% 21% 20% 1% 22% 19% 6% 22% 17% 29% 40% 106% 20% 30% 22% 19% 18% 10% 11% 17% 10% F Year 2% 110% 90% 70% 50% 10% 30% 50% Capital Spending Change March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address Capital Spending as a Percent of Sales Comparison 40% 34.8% Capital Spending as a % of Sales 30% 20% 10% 18.6% 10.0% 0% Top 5 Spenders* Industry Average Non Top 5 Spenders *Samsung, Intel, TSMC, SK Hynix, and GlobalFoundries March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 20 10

12 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address F Capital Spending Leaders' Shares of Total WW Semiconductor Industry Spending ($59.8) Top 5 Leaders Top 10 Leaders Top 15 Leaders Top 25 Leaders 89% 84% 80% 67% 2005 Share Top 5 = 40% Top 10 = 55% Top 15 = 67% Top 25 = 82% March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 22 11

13 Worldwide IC Wafer Capacity Changes (200mm Equivalents) Wafer Capacity Change (M) % Increase over Previous Year Millions of Wafers % 19% 16% 10% % % 21% % % CAGR 2.7 3% 1.5 2% 9% % % 16% % CAGR 10% 8.9 5% % 8.5 8% % 20% 15% 10% 5% 5% 4% 0% 5% Year/Year Increase F Source: SIA, IC Insights Year 10% March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 23 IC Units Shipped per Wafer CAGR Trends* 2.0% 1.7% IC Units Shipped per Wafer CAGR 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 2.0% F Source: SIA, IC Insights Quarter *200mm equivalents March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 24 12

14 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 25 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 26 13

15 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 27 Summary March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 28 14

16 March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address Quarterly IC ASP Trends $3.00 1Q92 4Q95 Trend 1Q96 1Q98 Trend $2.50 Dollars 2Q98 2Q01 Trend $2.00 3Q01 1Q05 Trend 2Q05 1Q09 Trend 2Q09 4Q12 Trend $1.50 $1.42 $1.45 $1.37 $1.29 $1.00 Source: WSTS, IC Insights Quarter March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 30 15

17 Year IC Market to Show Better Growth IC Unit Shipments (B) IC Average Selling Price (ASP) IC Market (B) $2.12 $ $1.35 $ CAGR 8.1% 3.0% 4.8% $1.35 $ F $1.62 $ F CAGR 6.0% 1.8% 8.0% IC ASP 0.5% CAGR March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 31 Your Trusted Source for Semiconductor Market Research Analysis Receive FREE Research Bulletins (about 30 per year) of important findings from our reports/services by giving me your business card March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 32 16

18 Thank you for your attention! Additional information March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address 33 17