Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and the Economy

Transcription

1 Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and the Economy Amonthep Chawla Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) November 8, 21 Prepared for a Presentation at Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, ESCAP

2 Background and Motivation Changes in population age structure Decreasing total fertility and rising life expectancy. Economic lifecycle Extended periods of dependency. Complex and varied intergenerational economic systems Families, firms, markets, the state, and civil society all play a role. Important implications for poverty, economic growth, and generational equity. 2

3 Objectives Develop a system of economic accounts that quantifies intergenerational flows in a comprehensive fashion. Estimate the accounts with historical depth for economies with different cultures, levels of development, economic systems and policies. Analyze and explain variation in the economic lifecycle and the intergenerational economic systems. macroeconomic effects of population aging. Improve policy related to pensions, health care, education, and fertility. 3

4 Importance of National Transfer Accounts Goal: Develop policies that respond effectively to the population age transition Requirement: a comprehensive and deep understanding of the generational economy: Social and economic institutions Economic flows across age groups System of public and private obligations 4

5 Outline I. National Transfer Account II. Basic Concepts Economic Lifecycle Age reallocations Changes in Age Structure and Economic Growth: Demographic Dividends 5

6 I. National Transfer Account

7 National Transfer Accounts Measure economic flows across age groups in a systematic and comprehensive way. Flows are identified by the economic mechanisms and the mediating institutions. Accounts complement the UN System of National Accounts and are constructed in a manner consistent with macroeconomic aggregates. 7

8 The Flow Account Identity Inflows Outflows Labor Income Consumption Asset Income Saving Transfer Received Transfers Paid l a + Y ( a) + Y ( a) + τ ( a) = C( a) + S( a) + τ ( a) Inflows Age Reallocations Outflows l a + Ca ( ) Y( a) = Y ( a) Sa ( ) + τ ( a) τ ( a) Lifecycle Deficit Asset-based Reallocations Net Transfers

9 Data 1. Aggregate Controls of the NT Flow Account are drawn from the National Income of Thailand (NESDB): Age Profiles are estimated, relying on information from the household socio economic survey (SES): NSO. 11 survey years 1981, 1986, 1988, 199, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2, 22 and Data for the population by age are from population estimates and projections by the United Nations (UN):

10 National Income Account of Thailand in 1996 (Billions of Baht) Income Approach Expenditure Approach Compensation of Employees 1,353 Public Consumption Expenditure 47 Operating Surplus 2,41 Education 144 Income from Unincorporated Enterprises 1,65 Health 44 Income from Private Corporations and Property 846 Other 281 Property Income 476 Private Consumption Expenditure 2,48 Less: Interest Payment on Consumer Debt 62 Education 22 Less: Interest Payment on Public Debt 9 Health 164 Saving of Private Corporations 252 Housing 147 Corporate Income Tax 176 Other 2,147 Corporate Transfer Payment 13 Net Saving 1,26 Income from Public Enterprises and Property 13 Households 278 Government Income from Property and Corporations 252 General Government 431 Entrepreneurship Saving of Government Enterprises 65 Government Enterprises 65 Less: Indirect Taxes 573 Subsidies 12 Less: Net Public Current Transfers from ROW 2 Less: Net Private Current Transfers from ROW 18 National Income 66 3,394 National Expenditure 3,394 1

11 Survey Years Micro Data: the Socio-economic Surveys (SES) Age of Head Household Characteristics Consumption (Baht/Month) No. of Education Health Total Households Household Size (persons) (years) , , ,27.6 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Mean , , Survey Years Age of Individuals Individuals Characteristics Income (Baht/Month) Wage Farm Non-farm Property No. of Observations (years) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,317 Mean , ,

12 Population by Age Proportion of population

13 Method: Constructing NTA Private Consumption Education: regression Health: regression and use individual health report of SES 22 Other: equivalence scale Public Consumption Education: enrollment rate & unit cost Health: inpatient of public hospital (to be revised using NHA) Other: per capita 13

14 Method (2) Labor Income (tabulate from SES) Earnings Profits from farm & non farm (2/3) Asset Income (assign to Head tabulate from SES) Profits from farm & non farm (1/3) Property income: rent, dividend, interest Other: proportional to property income 14

15 Method (3) Public Transfers Inflows: in kind & cash ( assign to recipients of benefits) Outflows: taxes (based on income and consumption) Private Transfers Inter household transfers inflows: tabulate from the SES outflows: tabulate from the SES Intra household transfers Inflows: disposable inc < cons outflows: disposable inc > cons 15

16 Example: Public Education Consumption of Thailand in 1996 Formal Education Primary Secondary Higher Informal Education Education Consumption 71,832 41,798 27,172 3,583 (Million Baht) Number of Students 7,935 3,927 1,333 58,465 (Thousands) Unit Cost 9,52 1,644 2, (Baht) 16

17 12, Aggregate Public Education Consumption for Thailand in 1996 (Millions of Baht) Estimated Results 1, Aggregate Control 8, Baht (Million) 6, 4, 2, Public formal education consumption by age is estimated by summing unit cost per student per level weighted by the number of students by age in each level Age 17

18 12, Per capita consumption and labor income, Thailand, 24 The Economic Lifecycle 1, Labor Income 8, Lifecycle surplus Baht 6, Consumption 4, Lifecycle deficit 2, Lifecycle deficit Age 18

19 Per capita lifecycle deficit, Thailand, 24 8, 6, Lifecycle deficit is the difference between consumption and labor production at each age 4, 2, Baht - 2, Lifecycle Surplus Ages: , - 6, Age 19

20 7, Per capita private consumption, Thailand, 24 6, Private Consumption 5, 4, Other Consumption Baht 3, 2, Health 1, Education Housing Age

21 3, Per capita public consumption, Thailand, 24 25, 2, Baht 15, 1, 5, Education Public Consumption Health Other Age 21

22 Classification of Inter age Flows Economic form Asset based Transfers Mediating institution Public flows are mediated by the government Private flows are mediated by households, families, NGOs, private individuals, etc. 22

23 Per capita age reallocations, Thailand, 24 8, 6, Age Reallocations 4, Baht 2, Asset- based Reallocations Transfers , - 4, - 6, Age 23

24 Per capita net transfers received, Thailand, 24 8, 6, Transfers 4, Private 2, Baht Public , - 4, - 6, Age 24

25 6, Per capita net intra household transfers, Thailand, 24 4, Inflows 2, Baht - 2, Net transfers - 4, Outflows - 6, - 8, Age 25

26 3,5 Per capita net intra household education transfers, Thailand, 24 3, 2,5 Inflows 2, 1,5 Baht 1, , Net transfers Outflows - 1,5-2, Age 26

27 8, Per capita net intra household health care transfers, Thailand, 24 6, 4, Baht 2, - 2, Inflows Net - 4, Outflows - 6, Age 27

28 3, Per capita net public transfers, Thailand, 24 2, 1, Inflows Baht , - 2, Outflows Net transfers - 3, Age 28

29 2, Per capita net public education transfers, Thailand, 24 15, 1, Inflows Baht 5, - 5, Net transfers Outflows - 1, Age 29

30 4, Per capita net public health care transfers, Thailand, 24 3, 2, Baht 1, Inflows Net transfers , - 2, Outflows - 3, Age 3

31 Research on NTA and Social Protection NTA can be used to improve understanding on the area of social protection How much children and the elderly consume; what types of consumption Human capital development Mechanisms that children and, particularly, the elderly use to finance their consumption Variation of social protection across countries 31

32 Consumption Finance by the Elderly % Intergenerational transfers are large and important for most countries US 23 Japan 24 Thailand 24 Taiwan 1998 Austria 2 Chile 1997 Finland 24 Hungary 25 Indonesia 22 Mexico 24 Slovenia 24 Uruguay 1994 Public Transfers Familial Transfers Asset-based Reallocations Work 32

33 Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits, Japan,

34 USA, 23 Austria, 2 Sweden, 23 Germany, Japan, 24 Finland, 24 Spain, 2 Slovenia, Taiwan, 1998 Korea, 2 Hungary, 25 Mexico, Chile, 1997 Costa Rica, 24 Uruguay, 1994 Brazil, Thailand, 24 Indonesia, 25 China, 22 Philippines, India, 24 Nigeria, 24 Kenya, YL C CF CG Source: Tung forthcoming. 34

35 Changes in Economic Lifecycle and Support System Thailand

36 Per Capita Consumption Relative to Yl(3-49) Education Health

37 Per Capita Labor Income Relative to Yl (3-49)

38 Changes in Economic Lifecycle No change in the first crossing age: young adults start to generate lifecycle surplus at around age 25 Gradual change in the second crossing age: individuals turn back to have lifecycle deficit at younger ages (61 in 1981 to 58 in 24) Shorter lifecycle surplus period, declining from 36 years in 1981 to 33 years in 24 38

39 Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits, Thailand Relative to Yl (3-49)

40 Support Systems Three mechanisms used to close the gap between consumption and production Public Transfers Private Transfers Asset based Reallocations Emphasize on Youth and the Elderly 4

41 Public Transfers Public Transfers Inflows less Outflows Children receive significantly larger public education transfers The elderly receive slightly increase public sector heath transfers The working ages pay larger taxes! 41

42 Per Capita Net Public Transfers Received Relative to Yl (3-49)

43 Private Transfers Slightly increase in private transfers to children Largely increase in private transfers to the elderly 43

44 Per Capita Net Private Transfers Received Relative to Yl (3-49)

45 Asset based Reallocations Asset income saving Age profiles of asset income and saving are fluctuated during the past decades Before the economic crisis in 1997 : the elderly rely heavily on asset income to support their consumption After 1997: less reliance on asset income Age profiles are younger during

46 Per Capita Asset Income 12 1 Relative to Yl (3-49)

47 Per Capita Asset Income Relative to Yl (3-49)

48 Per Capita Asset Income 12 1 Relative to Yl (3-49)

49 Per Capita Saving Relative to Yl (3-49)

50 Summary: Child Support Systems In general, children rely more on familial transfers than public transfers Transfers change overtime: children in Thailand rely less on the family and more on the public sector Public education transfers are larger and more important in Thailand 5

51 Summary: Old age Support Systems Reallocations through assets are major source of support for the elderly The elderly rely less on labor income overtime The public sector does not provide much support for the elderly The elderly rely more and more on the family familial support is not deteriorating despite economic development 51

52 II. Changes in Age Structure and Economic Growth: Demographic Dividends

53 Macroeconomic Effects of Demographic Changes Declining fertility leads to a larger share of working age adults More production and higher economic growth Continual decline in fertility and mortality rates leads to population aging Smaller share of labor force, lower production, slower economic growth Population aging may not adversely affect economic growth Need prudent policy to prepare for this coming demographic change 53

54 Demographic Dividends Changes in population age structure interact with the economic lifecycle, affecting economic growth Two demographic dividends Changes in the economic support ratio Changes in lifecycle wealth 54

55 Demographic Dividends (2) Changes in output per effective consumers = Changes in productivity + Changes in the economic support ratio Y(t)/N(t) = Y(t)/L(t) * L(t)/N(t) Second demographic dividend First demographic dividend 55

56 The First Demographic Dividend Change in the economic support ratio or the first demographic dividend is influenced by the economic lifecycle The economic lifecycle begins and ends with the dependency periods when consumption exceeds earnings (lifecycle deficit), requiring economic flows from working age adults (the lifecycle surplus ages) to close the gap. 56

57 Economic Lifecycles relative to mean labor income ages Labor Income, Japan Labor Income, Thailand Consumption, Japan Lifecycle Surplus Consumption, Thailand Lifecycle Deficit Lifecycle Deficit

58 Modeling the First Dividend Given constant productivity, changes in population age structure affects the economic support ratio Nt () = α( apat ) (,) a L() t = γ ( a) P( a,) t a where α(a) and γ(a) are the age profiles of consumption and labor income, and P(a,t) is the population 58

59 Economic Support Ratio Effective workers relative to effective consumers China India Indonesia Thailand Japan Korea 59

60 First Demographic Dividend percent China India Indonesia Thailand Japan Korea Note: Growth rate of the economic support ratio is the first demographic dividend 6

61 Summary of the First Dividend Declining fertility leads to a larger share of effective producers, allowing the economy to grow However, the first dividend is transitory; continual decline in fertility leads to population aging The first dividend in Thailand is depleted in 21, whereas some countries could enjoy the first dividend for several more decades Will population aging unfavorably affect economic growth in the future? 61

62 Preparation for Population Aging In order to avoid the adverse effect of population aging on economic growth, two approaches can be applied: Physical capital accumulation (the second demographic Dividend) Human capital accumulation (Raising productivity of the future labor force) 62

63 The Second Demographic Dividend Definition: The growth in productivity induced by an increase in the demand for lifecycle wealth. Compositional effect: population is concentrated at older, high wealth ages Behavioral effect: increase in duration of life and retirement lead to greater accumulation of wealth 63

64 Modeling the Second Demographic Dividend Demand for capital is proportional to lifecycle wealth of those 5+ Lifecycle wealth of those 5+ W(5+) = PV[C(5+)] PV[Yl(5+)] Cross sectional age profiles of consumption and production shift proportionately over time Productivity growth is constant Assumptions: interest rate: 3%; productivity growth: 1.5%; elasticity of output wrt capital:.33 64

65 Wealth Ratio 8 7 wealth relative to labor China India Indonesia Thailand Japan Korea 65

66 Second Demographic Dividend percent China India Indonesia Thailand Japan Korea Note: growth rate of lifecycle wealth influences the second demographic dividend 66

67 Summary of the Second Demographic Dividend The second demographic dividend is larger and more important to the economic growth than the first dividend in several countries The second dividend is not automatic; it requires policy that encourages capital accumulation rather than relies on pension wealth to finance consumption during retirement ages Population aging could benefit economic growth if capital accumulation is encouraged rather than PAYGO pension program 67

68 Effects of demographic changes on economic growth (197 2) Demographic Dividends First Second Total Actual growth in Actual Dividend GDP/N China India Indonesia Iran Japan Korea Mongolia Philippine Singapore Thailand Vietnam Notes: based on method by Mason (25) 68

69 Summary Intergenerational flows are large Magnitude and direction of IG flows are changing in unprecedented ways IG systems vary widely and are changing Important implications for Generational equity Standards of living Investment in human and physical capital Fiscal sustainability 69

70 Summary Inter age flows are an inevitable consequence of the economic lifecycle Flows constraint provides an organizing principle Transfers Asset based reallocations Complete accounting by sector Public (education, health, pensions, public debt) Private (especially family) Rest of the world (remittances, international capital flows) Complete NTA Relationship between stocks and flows Asset transfers, asset revaluations, and other net changes in assets 7

71 Further Reading Conceptual Foundations Lee, R. (23). Demographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global Overview. GENUS LIX(3 4): Lee, R. D. (1994). The Formal Demography of Population Aging, Transfers, and the Economic Life Cycle. Demography of Aging. L. G. Martin and S. H. Preston. Washington, D.C., National Academy Press: Willis, R. J. (1988). Life cycles, institutions and population growth: A theory of the equilibrium interest rate in an overlapping generations model. Economics of Changing Age Distributions in Developed Countries. R. D. Lee, W. B. Arthur and G. Rodgers. Oxford, Oxford University Press Empirical Studies Bloom, D. E. and J. G. Williamson (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review 12(3): Bloom, D. E. and D. Canning (21). Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth, and the Demographic Transition. Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley and S. W. Sinding. Oxford, Oxford University Press: Kelley, A. C. and R. M. Schmidt (27). Evolution of Recent Economic Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis. Population Change, Labor Markets and Sustainable Growth: Towards a New Economic Paradigm. A. Mason and M. Yamaguchi. Amsterdam, Elsevier:

72 Further Reading (Cont) Simulation Studies Cutler, D. M., J. M. Poterba, et al. (199). An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 199(1): Lee, R., A. Mason, et al. (23). From Transfers to Individual Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Taiwan and the United States. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 15(3): Mason, A. and R. Lee (26). Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend. GENUS LXII(2): NTA Fundamentals Mason, A., R. Lee, et al. (forthcoming). Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts. Developments in the Economics of Aging. D. Wise. Chicago, NBER and University of Chicago Press. Lee, R., S. H. Lee, A. Mason (28). Charting the Economic Lifecycle. Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth, a supplement to Population and Development Review 33. A. Prskawetz, D. E. Bloom and W. Lutz. New York, Population Council:

73 Support for this project has been provided by: National Institute on Aging: R37-AG25488 and R1-AG25247 NUPRI MEXT Academic Frontier Project, Government of Japan John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation International Development Research Center (IDRC) United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

74 Research Teams for 3 Economies 74

75 Contributing Researchers

76 The National Transfer Accounts project is a collaborative effort of East-West Center, Honolulu and Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California - Berkeley Lee, Ronald, Co-Director Mason, Andrew, Co-Director Auerbach, Alan Miller, Tim Lee, Sang-Hyop Donehower, Gretchen Ebenstein, Avi Wongkaren, Turro Takayesu, Ann Boe, Carl Comelatto, Pablo Sumida, Comfort Schiff, Eric Stojanovic, Diana Langer, Ellen Chawla, Amonthep Pajaron, Marjorie Cinco 76

77 Japan Key Institutions: Nihon University Population Research Institute and the Statistics Bureau of Japan, Tokyo, Japan. Ogawa, Naohiro, Country Leader Matsukura, Rikiya Maliki Chawla, Amonthep Obayashi, Senichi Kondo, Makoto Fukui, Takehiro Ihara, Hajime Suzuki, Kosuke Akasaka, Katsuya Moriki, Yoshie Makabe, Naomi Ogawa, Maki 77

78 Australia Key Institution: Australia National University Jeromey Temple, Country Leader Brazil Turra, Cassio, Country Leader Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo Renteria, Elisenda Perez Chile Key Institution: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Carribean, Santiago, Chile Bravo, Jorge Mauricio Holz 78

79 China Key Institution: China Center for Economic Research, Beijing, China. Ling, Li, Country Leader Chen, Quilin Jiang, Yu Taiwan Key Institution: The Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. Tung, An-Chi, Country Leader Lai, Mun Sim (Nicole) Liu, Paul K.C. Andrew Mason 79

80 France Wolff, Francois-Charles, Country Leader Bommier, Antoine Thailand Key Institution: Economics Department, Thammasat University. Phananiramai, Mathana, Country Leader Chawla, Amonthep (Beet) Soonthornchawakan, Nongnuch Inthornon, Suntichai India Key Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore Narayana, M.R., Country Leader Ladusingh, L. Mexico Key Institution: Consejo Nacional de Población Partida, Virgilio, Country Leader Mejía-Guevara, Iván 8

81 Indonesia Key Institution: Lembaga Demografi, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia. Maliki, Country Leader Wiyono, Nur Hadi Nazara, Suahasil Chotib Philippines Key Institution: Philippine Institute for Development Studies. Racelis, Rachel H., Country Leader Salas, John Michael Ian S. Pajaron, Marjorie Cinco Sweden Key Institution: Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm, Sweden. Lindh, Thomas, Country Leader Johansson, Mats Forsell, Charlotte 81

82 Uruguay Bucheli, Marisa, Country Leader Furtado, Magdalena Rodrigo Ceni Cecilia Rodriguez South Korea An, Chong-Bum, Country Leader Chun, Young-Jun Lim, Byung-In Kim, Cheol-Hee Jeon, Seung-Hoon Gim, Eul-Sik Seok, Sang-Hun Kim, Jae-Ho 82

83 Austria Key Institution: Vienna Institute of Demography Fuernkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia, Country Leader Sambt, Joze Costa Rica Key Institution: CCP, Universidad de Costa Rica Rosero-Bixby, Luis, Country Leader Maria Paola Zuniga Slovenia Sambt, Joze, Country Leader Hungary Key Institution: TARKI Social Research Institute Gal, Robert Medgyesi, Marton Finland Key institutions: The Finnish Center for Pensions And the Finnish Pension Alliance Vanne, Reijo Gröhn, Jukka Vaittinen, Risto 83

84 United States Key Institution: Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging Lee, Ronald, Country Leader Miller, Tim Ebenstein, Avi Boe, Carl Comelatto, Pablo Donehower, Gretchen Schiff, Eric Langer, Ellen 84

85 Kenya Mwabu, Germano Nigeria Soyibo, Adedoyin Germany Kluge, Fanny Annemarie Spain Patxot, Concepció, Country Leader Renteria, Elisenda Perez 85

86 Thank you