CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK Dr. Justin Ram Director of Economics Caribbean Development Bank Conference Centre February 7, 2018

2 Agenda 01 The global picture 02 Caribbean economic review and outlook 03 Framework for a more resilient caribbean

3 The global picture

4 Global outlook is more positive with the LAC region improving, but still lagging behind Real GDP Growth (%), World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Latin America and The Caribbean Source: IMF WEO Update January

5 Risks and opportunities RISKS Continued uncertainty in U.S. Policy Weakening U.S. Dollar Geopolitical risks BREXIT China rebalancing Global tightening Non-inclusive growth Natural disasters and extreme weather OPPORTUNITIES Rising commodity prices U.S. fiscal stimulus Continued China stimulus Rapid advancement of AI Strengthening pound Recovery in Brazil and Latin America

6 Caribbean economic review and outlook

7 Last year s growth rates ranged from -6.9% to 4.5% Estimated 2017 GDP Growth % 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 4.5% BMC Average = 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 1.7% DOM ANG BVI SUR TT SVG BZE BAH BAR HAI MON JAM CAY SKN GUY SLU ANT TCI GRE -1.2% -1.0% -3.5% -2.7% -6.9% Source: IMF WEO, Central Banks, CDB

8 Average BMC growth is consistently lower than other small and developing states 8 Real GDP Growth (%), Emerging market and developing economies Other Small Developing States World Advanced economies CDB Borrowing Member Countries -2-4 Source: IMF, WEO, CDB

9 Commodity prices still relatively low & visitors arrivals have recovered Gold Index Jan Dec 2017 Crude Oil (US$/bbl) Jan 2014 Dec 2017 Visitor Arrivals % % +1% Sources: IMF, CTO

10 Many BMCs have had double-digit rates of unemployment for more than a decade Unemployment Rate (%) 2017 estimate unless otherwise noted SVG (2015) GRE SLU ANT (2015) DOM JAM BAR BAH BEL SUR TT CAY Sources: IMF, Statistical Offices, CDB

11 Regional rankings: World Bank Doing Business Reports positive reforms ( ) 10. Enforcing Contracts 11. Resolving Insolvency 1. Ease of Doing Business Rank Starting a Business 3. Dealing with Constructio n Permits Best Performer: Jamaica (70 th ) 11 negative reforms ( ) 9. Trading Across Borders 1 4. Getting Electricity Most Reforms: Jamaica (11) Source: World Bank 8. Paying Taxes 7. Protecting Investors 6. Getting Credit 5. Registering Property 2017/ / /2016

12 Regional debt levels are still unsustainably high Change in % BAR JAM BZE ANT SVG DOM BAH SLU GRE SKN Change in % SUR TT ANG GUY HAI BVI CAY TCI MON Source: Central Banks

13 Some foreign currency reserves are below the global benchmark Pacific Island Small States 5.9 Venezuela 5.9 Dominican Republic 3.0 LAC Latest Available 12 Barbados As at end of The Bahamas Suriname 3.6 Guyana Antigua and Barbuda Trinidad and Tobago Belize Source: Central Banks 8.5 Dominica 7.8 St. Kitts & Nevis Haiti Saint Lucia Grenada Jamaica

14 CDB estimates that the region will grow at 2% in Forecast 2017 Estimate 6.4% 7.0% 5.3% BMC average = 2% 4.5% 4.4% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.8% 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% BAR TT SUR BZE SVG BAH MON JAM HAI BVI SLU SKN CAY GUY GRE TCI ANT DOM ANG -1.0% -1.2% -2.7% -3.5% Source: CDB -6.9%

15 A framework for a more resilient Caribbean

16 Regional Challenges Macroeconomic Low growth average 0.4% over a decade High debt regional median 65% of GDP Low commodity prices and declining reserves Low Productivity & Competitiveness Jamaica is the 70 th country in the WB Ease of Doing Business Index highest BMC Large infrastructure gaps Weak governance Inefficient and costly transport links and high energy costs Poor Human Development High poverty (43.7%) and youth unemployment (18-47%) Poor education outcomes, skills mismatch and brain drain High crime and citizen insecurity Environmental Threats High annual natural disaster costs Low insurance payouts Insufficient building codes Poor climate change adaptation tools

17 A Caribbean blueprint Macroeconomic Economic growth and diversification Strong / resilient financial sector Fiscal rules, e.g., Debt-to-GDP limits Productivity & Competitiveness Private sector-led growth Opening new trade markets Regional payments facility (Fintech) First class and costeffective infrastructure Human Development Good quality education for all Workforce skills training based on employers needs Conditional cash transfers to the most vulnerable Regional Integration Sustainable Society Environmental Preparedness Strict building code compliance CCRIF, indemnity insurance, resiliency funds Environmental tools Climate change adaptation tools Microcredit for recovery lending Gender Equality

18 Thank you