A Time to Act. Small States Debt and Financing

Transcription

1 A Time to Act Small States Debt and Financing Panel Discussion: UN PrepCom on Small Island Developing States 24 th February 2014 United Nations, New York

2 Commonwealth Level Advocacy Mission I promise that I will take these ideas back to our Board and Team and when we meet next year, I will have an answer for you. The interests and challenges of small states, especially with respect to helping them address the adverse effects of climate change are issues on which I have enormous determination to address. Dr Jim Yong Kim, World Bank President.

3 Small States Challenges and Commonwealth Proposals Options Key Challenges Commonwealth Proposals A. Debt burdens, debt default and need for debt relief B. Fiscal Adjustment, Weak Growth and Threats to Human Development Debt Swaps for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Countercyclical Loans for Mitigation of Debt and Growth Challenges C. Poor Access to Finance Vulnerability as a Criterion for Access to Use IFIs Concessional Resources D. Structural Vulnerability and Continuous Exposure to Shocks Resilience Building as a Policy Condition for IFI Lending

4 Commonwealth Small Developing States - Public Debt to GDP 2012 Jamaica Antigua and Barbuda Maldives Samoa The Gambia Barbados Guyana The Bahamas Tuvalu Trinidad and Tobago Kiribati Swaziland Solomon Islands Lesotho Public Debt to GDP in percent

5 Debt Restructuring Operations, Domestic Creditors External Private Creditors External Official Creditors Antigua and Barbuda (2010) Debt exchange Paris Club Dominica (2004) Debt exchange Debt Exchange Debt rescheduling Belize (2007, 2013) Debt Exchange Grenada (2005) Debt Exchange Debt Exchange Paris Club Jamaica (2010, 2013) Debt Exchange St. Kitts and Nevis (2012) Debt Exchange Debt Exchange Paris Club Seychelles (2010) Debt Exchange Paris Club

6 Commonwealth-7: Public Debt to GDP Pre- and Post-Debt Exchange (Source:IMF) Year 3 year Pre Relief Average Year 3 Year 2 Year 1 Restructuring Year Year+1 Year+2 Year+3 3 year Post Relief Average Commonwealth 7 Antigua and Barbuda Belize Dominica Grenada Jamaica n.a Seychelles n.a St. Kitts and Nevis n.a. n.a. n.a.

7 Small States Challenges and Commonwealth Proposals Options Key Challenges Commonwealth Proposals A. Debt burdens, debt default and need for debt relief B. Fiscal Adjustment, Weak Growth and Threats to Human Development Debt Swaps for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Countercyclical Loans for Mitigation of Debt and Growth Challenges C. Poor Access to Finance Vulnerability as a Criterion for Access to Use IFIs Concessional Resources D. Structural Vulnerability and Continuous Exposure to Shocks Resilience Building as a Policy Condition for IFI Lending

8 A. Debt Swaps for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation St. Kitts and Grenada Barbados Maldives Seychelles St. Vincent and Samoa Tonga Solomon Islands Vanuatu Botswana -Medium -Medium -Medium -Medium -Medium -Medium Public Debt/GDP Ratio 40, , , , , , , , Pledged Deposited Income Approved Disbursed , , Australia Canada Japan United Kingdom 48% 19% 33% Private Bilateral Multilateral 4,872.18

9 B. Counter-cyclical Loans for Mitigation of Growth and Debt Challenges Speed No conditionality Predictable Reduce risk of debt default Facilitate recovery

10 3. B. Counter-cyclical Loans for Mitigation of Growth and Debt Challenges Capital Remaining Due (CRD) 100 Fixed Grace Period Export Shocks Floating Grace Period Loan Maturity 30 years Initial Grace Period 10 years (5+5) Additional Suspensions none Amortization Years

11 C. Vulnerability as a Criterion for Access to Concessional Resources Low Income Countries Criteria for Entry and Graduation from PRGT Eligibility Entry: A Fund member would be added to the list of PRGT-eligible countries if: (i) its annual per capita GNI is below the operational IDA cutoff (as defined); and (ii) the sovereign does not have capacity to access international financial markets on a durable and substantial basis. Graduation: Income Criterion: The country s annual per capita GNI: (a) has been above the IDA operational cutoff for at least the last five years (for which qualifying data are available); (b) has not been on a declining trend over the same period (comparing the first and the last relevant annual data); and (c) is currently at least twice the operational IDA cut-off. Or: Market Access Criterion: The sovereign has the capacity to access international financial markets on a durable and substantial basis. And: Absence of serious short-term vulnerabilities: In addition to meeting at least one of the above two criteria, the country should not face serious short-term vulnerabilities. The assessment of these vulnerabilities will require, in particular, the absence of risks of a sharp decline in income, orofalossofmarketaccess(where relevant), and limited debt vulnerabilities, as indicated by the latest Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), and a confirmation that overall debt vulnerabilities remain limited, taking into account developments and prospects since such analysis From Eligibility to Use the Fund s Facilities for Concessional Financing (2010) and the Decision on Eligibility to Use the Fund s Facilities for Concessional Financing--PRGT-Eligibility Criteria (Decision No (10/3), January 11, 2010.

12 D. Resilience Building as a Policy Condition for IFI Lending Macroeconomic Stability Market Efficiency Social Development Good Governance Good Environmental Management

13 Presented by: Samantha Attridge, Head,International Finance and Capital Markets Tel: +44 (0) th February 2014