% Replacement Interface Explanation. Interface What makes interface unique How the interfaces are identical

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1 % Replacement Interface Explanation The Market Adoption Model reflect the mot current data available to u. In thi, the 215 verion of the MAM, we utilize the 214 SATURATION DATA, and 215 EFI program data for and weight. The 'DATA SOURCES AND FORMULA' table (cell A22) ha more complete detail about the ource behind thi intrument. Interface What make interface unique How the interface are identical Delta Watt Calculation allow % Replacement Interface-Uptrm G (Uptream, for the replacement of all le Gro) efficient Bulb Delta Watt Calculation allow % Replacement Interface-Uptrm N (Uptream, for the replacement of all Saving Calculation. Net) bulb. prediction. Delta Watt Calculation allow for the replacement of baeline prediction (until modified by the uer). % Replacement Interface-DI and (Direct Intall, Gro) bulb Uptrm G and Uptrm N baeline and program are identical until changed by the uer. Scenario Logic Scenario Locked Interface year (214 in thi verion) General Logic: Manipulable Year ( ) Treatment of ( ) Treatment of Halogen ( ) Treatment of ( ) Treatment of ( ) Conidiering the EISA legilation phae out (1w-212)(75w-213)(6w & 4w-214) of (though the legilation doe allow a ell through until 22 when all bulb old mut meet an efficacy of no le than 45 lumen/w) we begin to anticipate what conumer will buy to Becaue EISA outlaw the manufacture of traditional, (which are le expenive than either of the more efficient bulb option 4 ) have Reflect lighting atuaration baed on mot recent onite viit replace thee bulb. 1 The bet indicator of future purchae that we have i pat purchae but ince pat purchae have been made under a program cenario we looked to the point of ale data (which how that non-program tate have a higher rate of ale than do program tate) and The Team contructed a prediction of what the lighting market would look like in the helf tocking urvey (which how that of all wattage are till available for purchae) abence of any further program intervention. In thi cenario it i hypotheized that along with aturation tudie (that how that are till being intalled in empty and will remain the baeline until well after EISA ha outlawed them ocket). 2,3,4 Given the evidence of the continued availabilty/purchae/ue of we (long ell through period) and that ale will gradually increae and ale will anticipate that will continued to be ued (in the abence of program intervention) and increae very lowly. will only be phaed out when their availibiliy i diminihed. been becoming more popular among conumer and retailer 3,4. We anticipate that in the abence of program and the declining availabilty of traditional,, which are le expenive than CLF and, will be We ee that there i a greater probability for a to be replaced with a purchaed at a greater rate a EISA continue--conumer' have diplayed and a become le available we expect ale to are depicted a being purchaed at a very low pace--they are expenive and increaed awarene over the pat four year 5. EISA alo tipulate that the ale increae but at a low pace. 3 Retailer who once, but no longer, they do not have prominent helf diplay. 4 In the abence of program upport we of inefficient bulb will ceae in 22 but we have little confidence that thi will participated in program relinquih ome of their helf pace to anticipate that mot conumer will not readily take to a bulb that they know little be enforced (rider bill have tripped funding for EISA enforcement) --o we giving further evidence that ale, in the abence of about and cot 1x a much a an and 5x that of a depite the expect there to be a ell through period for after 22. program, would be leened. 4. longterm advantage of. 4 Reflect lighting atuaration baed on mot recent onite viit Identical to the tarting baeline until the uer manipulate the value. Identical to the tarting baeline until the uer manipulate the value. Identical to the tarting baeline until the uer manipulate the value. Identical to the tarting baeline until the uer manipulate the value. Identical to the tarting baeline until the uer manipulate the value. Reflect a program that ha trong upport for and beginning upport for The hypothetical program cenario aume a program with aggreive upport until 218 reulting in a fater rate of ale and eventually making the baeline a well a ramping up of upport reulting in aggreive accumulation of ale and making the baeline in the later predicted year. The program cenario depict a hypothetical program that ha intervention ha hown that upporting bulb encourage the ale of continued upport until 218--program upport ha made a efficient program bulb in the place of le efficient option 2 and that in the popular lighting choice among conumer who report that, after intervention ha hown that upporting bulb encourage the ale of efficient program bulb abence of program upport the inventory will likely be replaced by, are the bulb mot likely to be purchaed. 2,5. The in the place of le efficient option and that in the abence of program upport the inventory bulb 2 --from thi we depict a program that continue upport continued upport in thi cenario move toward being the will likely be replaced by bulb--from thi we depict a program that continue upport through 218 and conequently keep ale at a low rate and doe not baeline while and are being purchaed at a through 218 and conequently decreae the rate of ale. 2 allow bulb to become the new lighting baeline. much lower rate. Previou program evaluation ha hown the ucce of the program in getting into conumer home--in thi program cenario we imagine that the program i in the beginning tage of upport and will begin to aggreively uupport around ,3,4,5 A the program begin to ramp up we anticipate ale rate to increae a price go down and viibility increae (a happened with ). Data Source and Formula Input Value Source number of bulb old in 1w, 75w, 6w,4w 214 IRI national lighting ale tracker data--iri data repreent ~25% of the lighting market categorie that all proceeding calcualtion are baed and the final bulb count wa extrapolated. on 44,, Annual population growth.31 American Community Survey reported growth over the pat decade.19 Baed on 215 EFI program data 6 Sale weighting 1w category Sale weighting 75w category.9 Baed on 215 EFI program data Sale weighting 6w category.66 Baed on 215 EFI program data Sale weighting 4w category.7 Baed on 215 EFI program data Sale weighting 1w category.3 Baed on 215 EFI program data Sale weighting 75w category.4 Baed on 215 EFI program data Sale weighting 6w category.69 Baed on 215 EFI program data Sale weighting 4w category.25 Baed on 215 EFI program data Annual hour of ue, Uptream HOU tudy Annual Hour of ue, Direct Intall HOU tudy MA aturation tudie--aving are incorporated into later year o that the intallation rate.77 reache.95. Intallation rate Intallation rate.95 MA aturation tudie calculated number of bulb calculated replacement percentage*total bulb*1+annual growth*ale weighting*intallation rate number of allowed calculated If calculated i greater than the um of the previou year le efficient bulb+.16*previou year, then the max allowed number of will not the um of lat year le effieicnt bulb and.16 of lat year Gro Delta Watt calculated LE wattage-ee wattage*(ee count/le count)+{repeated for all LE wattage} Net Delta Watt calculated LE wattage-ee wattage*(ee count/le count+ee count)+{repeated for all LE wattage} Energy Saving calculated calculated bulb*delta watt/1,,+proportion of lat year aving Retail tocking conidered Shelf tocking urvey Bulb pricing conidered and cot analyi and Manufacturer interview Conumer repone to bulb replacement conidered Conumer lighting urvey Rate of bulb replacement--locked year variable Baed on mot recent aturation tudie (214) Rate of bulb replacement--changeable year variable Baed on the uer interpretation of the lighting market and it' future direction Source 1 EISA ( wnload/eisa Backgrounder FINAL 4-11 EPA.pdf) 2 MA-2c Saturation Stagnation and 3d NTG etimation from POS, MA- 3f Lighting Market Aement On-ite Saturation, MA-5B Lighting Market Aement Shelf Survey and Pricing Analyi, MA-2F Lighting Market Aement Conumer Survey Finding Memo, EFI 215 tracking data

2 The ' % Replacement Interface-Gro' tab contribute to '% Replacement Bulb Count', ' % Replacement Delta Watt', and ' % Replacement Prgm Saving' and contain three cenario. The firt cenario i the (red)--thi i not adjutable and reflect NMR gue of how the market will repond to EISA baed on current aturation, cutomer urvey, helf tocking, and upplier interview data. The econd cenario i the (yellow)--the bulb replacement value (colulmn N through S) are adutable o that the uer can manipulate the value to reflect how they anticipate cutomer will purchae bulb to replace EISA category. Delta Watt (column K and L) are calculated baed on the aturation value in the table but are alo adjutable in the event that the uer want to pecify a certain Delta value. The third cenario i the (green)--the bulb replacement value (column Y through AD) are adjutable o that the uer can manipulate the value for the purpoe of program planning and gaging which program change could have the bigget impact. Delta Watt (column AG and AH) are calculated baed on the aturation value in the table but are alo adjutable in the event that the uer want to pecify a certain Delta value. Axi Title 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Induced Saving (MWh): Difference between aving generated by the Scenario and the Scenario 5, : Reference baeline--all cell locked : Value to be updated baed on uer aumption and acce to new data : Value to be adjuted to reflect program/planning aumption 1 Watt 1 Watt inancdece nt 72 Watt (avg (avg Bulb 1 Watt inancdec 72 Watt (avg (avg ent Watt incandec inancdec 72 Watt (avg (avg ent ent % 6% 21% 27% 7% 2% 1% % 6% 21% 27% 7% 2% 1% % 2% 14% 39% 11% 2% 1% % 5% 21% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 5% 21% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 1% 15% 4% 14% 2% 1% % 5% 32% 31% 11% 2% 1% % 5% 32% 31% 11% 2% 1% % 1% 1% 46% 15% 2% 1% % 3% 32% 33% 13% 2% 1% % 3% 32% 33% 13% 2% 1% % % 12% 48% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 34% 35% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 34% 35% 16% 2% 1% % % 14% 42% 26% 2% 1% % % 41% 37% 2% 2% 1% % % 41% 37% 2% 2% 1% % % 21% 44% 33% 2% 1% % % 25% 47% 26% 2% 1% % % 25% 47% 26% 2% 1% % % 21% 44% 33% 2% 1% % % 19% 5% 29% 2% 1% % % 19% 5% 29% 2% 1% % % 15% 44% 39% 2% 1% % % % 59% 39% 2% 1% % % % 59% 39% 2% 1% % % 2% 44% 52% 2% 1% Watt incandec (avg (avg ent Bulb 72 Watt incandec (avg (avg ent incandec ent 72 Watt incandec (avg (avg ent % 4% 5% 15% 25% 4% 2% 1% % 4% 5% 15% 25% 4% 2% 1% % 6% 4% 16% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 16% 27% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 16% 27% 1% 2% 1% % 8% 1% 8% 36% 15% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 17% 29% 15% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 17% 29% 15% 2% 1% % 6% 1% 2% 33% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 31% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 31% 18% 2% 1% % 5% % 22% 33% 2% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 33% 22% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 33% 22% 2% 1% % 4% % 2% 35% 24% 2% 1% % 2% % 16% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 16% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 17% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 15% 45% 36% 2% 1% % 2% % 15% 45% 36% 2% 1% % 1% % 17% 42% 38% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % 16% 44% 38% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % 6% 52% 4% 2% 1% Bulb 13 1 incandec ent % 1% 3% 32% 7% 2% 1% % 1% 3% 32% 7% 2% 1% % 2% 1% 37% 11% 2% 1% % 2% 4% 33% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 4% 33% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 1% 38% 13% 2% 1% % 2% 13% 35% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 13% 35% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 6% 4% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 24% 37% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 24% 37% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 1% 41% 25% 2% 1% % 2% 26% 39% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 26% 39% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 17% 42% 28% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 46% 26% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 46% 26% 2% 1% % 2% 21% 42% 33% 2% 1% % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % 2% 7% 44% 45% 2% 1% % % 4% 54% 4% 2% 1% % % 4% 54% 4% 2% 1% % 1% 4% 43% 5% 2% 1% % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % 5% 4% 53% 2% 1% Watt incandece nt 29 Watt (avg (avg 9 7 Bulb 43 Watt incandec 29 Watt (avg (avg ent Watt incandec 29 Watt (avg (avg ent % 48% 16% 29% 4% 2% 1% % 48% 16% 29% 4% 2% 1% % 38% 5% 37% 14% 2% 1% % 39% 22% 3% 6% 2% 1% % 39% 22% 3% 6% 2% 1% % 31% 5% 41% 16% 2% 1% % 35% 24% 3% 8% 2% 1% % 35% 24% 3% 8% 2% 1% % 28% 8% 41% 16% 2% 1% % 3% 26% 32% 9% 2% 1% % 3% 26% 32% 9% 2% 1% % 24% 9% 43% 19% 2% 1% % 25% 26% 34% 12% 2% 1% % 25% 26% 34% 12% 2% 1% % 2% 14% 45% 16% 2% 1% % 13% 29% 36% 19% 2% 1% % 13% 29% 36% 19% 2% 1% % 13% 14% 45% 24% 2% 1% % % 28% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 28% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 32% 4% 26% 2% 1% % % 18% 45% 35% 2% 1% % % 18% 45% 35% 2% 1% % % 27% 45% 26% 2% 1% % % 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% % % 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% % % 22% 47% 29% 2% 1% 2 8

3 Intrument Intruction: The ' % Replacement Interface-Net' tab contribute to '% Replacement Bulb Count', ' % Replacement Delta Watt', and ' % Replacement Prgm Saving' and contain three cenario. The firt cenario i the (red)--thi i not adjutable and reflect NMR gue of how the market will repond to EISA baed on current aturation, cutomer urvey, helf tocking, and upplier interview data. The econd cenario i the (yellow)--the bulb replacement value (colulmn N through S) are adutable o that the uer can manipulate the value to reflect how they anticipate cutomer will purchae bulb to replace EISA category. Delta Watt (column K and L) are calculated baed on the aturation value in the table but are alo adjutable in the event that the uer want to pecify a certain Delta value. The third cenario i the (green)--the bulb replacement value (column Y through AD) are adjutable o that the uer can manipulate the value for the purpoe of program planning and gaging which program change could have the bigget impact. Delta Watt (column AG and AH) are calculated baed on the aturation value in the table but are alo adjutable in the event that the uer want to pecify a certain Delta value. Axi Title 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Induced Saving (MWh): Difference between aving generated by the Scenario and the Scenario 2, 1, : Reference baeline--all cell locked : Value to be updated baed on uer aumption and acce to new data : Value to be adjuted to reflect program/planning aumption 1 Watt 1 Watt inancdece nt 72 Watt (avg (avg Bulb 1 Watt inancdec 72 Watt (avg (avg ent Watt incandec inancdec 72 Watt (avg (avg ent ent % 6% 21% 27% 7% 2% 1% % 6% 21% 27% 7% 2% 1% % 2% 14% 39% 11% 2% 1% % 5% 21% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 5% 21% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 1% 15% 4% 13% 2% 99% % 5% 32% 31% 11% 2% 1% % 5% 32% 31% 11% 2% 1% % 1% 1% 46% 15% 2% 1% % 3% 32% 33% 13% 2% 1% % 3% 32% 33% 13% 2% 1% % % 12% 48% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 34% 35% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 34% 35% 16% 2% 1% % % 14% 42% 26% 2% 1% % % 41% 37% 2% 2% 1% % % 41% 37% 2% 2% 1% % % 2% 43% 31% 2% 96% % % 25% 47% 26% 2% 1% % % 25% 47% 26% 2% 1% % % 21% 44% 33% 2% 1% % % 19% 5% 29% 2% 1% % % 19% 5% 29% 2% 1% % % 15% 44% 39% 2% 1% % % % 59% 39% 2% 1% % % % 59% 39% 2% 1% % % 2% 44% 52% 2% 1% Watt incandec ent (avg (avg Bulb 72 Watt incandec ent (avg (avg incandec ent 72 Watt incandec ent (avg (avg % 4% 5% 15% 25% 4% 2% 1% % 4% 5% 15% 25% 4% 2% 1% % 6% 4% 16% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 16% 27% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 16% 27% 1% 2% 1% % 8% 1% 8% 36% 15% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 17% 29% 15% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 17% 29% 15% 2% 1% % 6% 1% 2% 33% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 31% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 31% 18% 2% 1% % 5% % 22% 33% 2% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 33% 22% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 33% 22% 2% 1% % 4% % 2% 35% 24% 2% 1% % 2% % 16% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 16% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 17% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 15% 45% 36% 2% 1% % 2% % 15% 45% 36% 2% 1% % 1% % 17% 42% 38% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% Bulb 13 1 incandec ent % 1% 3% 32% 7% 2% 1% % 1% 3% 32% 7% 2% 1% % 2% 1% 37% 11% 2% 1% % 2% 4% 33% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 4% 33% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 1% 38% 13% 2% 1% % 2% 13% 35% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 13% 35% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 6% 4% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 24% 37% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 24% 37% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 1% 41% 25% 2% 1% % 2% 26% 39% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 26% 39% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 17% 42% 28% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 46% 26% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 46% 26% 2% 1% % 2% 21% 42% 33% 2% 1% % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % 2% 7% 44% 45% 2% 1% % % 4% 54% 4% 2% 1% % % 4% 54% 4% 2% 1% % 1% 4% 43% 5% 2% 1% % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % 5% 4% 53% 2% 1% Watt incandece nt 29 Watt (avg (avg 9 7 Bulb 43 Watt incandec 29 Watt (avg (avg ent Watt incandec 29 Watt (avg (avg ent % 48% 16% 29% 4% 2% 1% % 48% 16% 29% 4% 2% 1% % 38% 5% 37% 14% 2% 1% % 39% 22% 3% 6% 2% 1% % 39% 22% 3% 6% 2% 1% % 31% 5% 41% 16% 2% 1% % 35% 24% 3% 8% 2% 1% % 35% 24% 3% 8% 2% 1% % 28% 8% 41% 16% 2% 1% % 3% 26% 32% 9% 2% 1% % 3% 26% 32% 9% 2% 1% % 24% 9% 43% 19% 2% 1% % 25% 26% 34% 12% 2% 1% % 25% 26% 34% 12% 2% 1% % 2% 14% 45% 16% 2% 1% % 13% 29% 36% 19% 2% 1% % 13% 29% 36% 19% 2% 1% % 13% 14% 45% 24% 2% 1% % % 28% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 28% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 32% 4% 26% 2% 1% % % 18% 45% 35% 2% 1% % % 18% 45% 35% 2% 1% % % 27% 45% 26% 2% 1% % % 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% % % 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% % % 22% 47% 29% 2% 1% 6 6

4 Intrument Intruction: The ' % Replacement Interface-DI' tab contribute to '% Replacement Bulb Count', ' % Replacement Delta Watt', and ' % Replacement Prgm Saving' and contain three cenario. The firt cenario i the (red)--thi i not adjutable and reflect NMR gue of how the market will repond to EISA baed on current aturation, cutomer urvey, helf tocking, and upplier interview data. The econd cenario i the (yellow)--the bulb replacement value (colulmn N through S) are adutable o that the uer can manipulate the value to reflect how they anticipate cutomer will purchae bulb to replace EISA category. Delta Watt (column K and L) are calculated baed on the aturation value in the table but are alo adjutable in the event that the uer want to pecify a certain Delta value. The third cenario i the (green)--the bulb replacement value (column Y through AD) are adjutable o that the uer can manipulate the value for the purpoe of program planning and gaging which program change could have the bigget impact. Delta Watt (column AG and AH) are calculated baed on the aturation value in the table but are alo adjutable in the event that the uer want to pecify a certain Delta value. Axi Title 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, Induced Saving (MWh): Difference between aving generated by the Scenario and the Scenario 4, 2, : Reference baeline--all cell locked : Value to be updated baed on uer aumption and acce to new data : Value to be adjuted to reflect program/planning aumption 1 Watt 1 Watt inancdece nt 72 Watt (avg (avg Bulb 1 Watt inancdec 72 Watt (avg (avg ent Watt incandec inancdec 72 Watt (avg (avg ent ent % 6% 21% 27% 7% 2% 1% % 6% 21% 27% 7% 2% 1% % 6% 18% 32% 9% 2% 1% % 5% 29% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 5% 29% 29% 9% 2% 1% % 5% 25% 34% 11% 2% 1% % 5% 32% 31% 11% 2% 1% % 5% 32% 31% 11% 2% 1% % 5% 28% 36% 13% 2% 1% % 3% 32% 33% 13% 2% 1% % 3% 32% 33% 13% 2% 1% % 3% 27% 37% 17% 2% 1% % 2% 34% 35% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 34% 35% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 26% 38% 24% 2% 1% % % 41% 37% 2% 2% 1% % % 41% 37% 2% 2% 1% % % 25% 41% 32% 2% 1% % % 25% 47% 26% 2% 1% % % 25% 47% 26% 2% 1% % % 24% 47% 27% 2% 1% % % 19% 5% 29% 2% 1% % % 19% 5% 29% 2% 1% % % 19% 5% 29% 2% 1% % % % 59% 39% 2% 1% % % % 59% 39% 2% 1% % % % 59% 39% 2% 1% Watt incandec (avg (avg ent Bulb 72 Watt incandec (avg (avg ent incandec ent 72 Watt incandec (avg (avg ent % 4% 5% 15% 25% 4% 2% 1% % 4% 5% 15% 25% 4% 2% 1% % 4% 5% 12% 27% 7% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 16% 27% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 16% 27% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 1% 31% 12% 2% 98% % 2% 2% 17% 29% 15% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 17% 29% 15% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 1% 37% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 31% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 31% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 1% 41% 2% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 33% 22% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 2% 33% 22% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 1% 43% 24% 2% 1% % 2% % 16% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 16% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 1% 49% 3% 2% 1% % 2% % 15% 45% 36% 2% 1% % 2% % 15% 45% 36% 2% 1% % 2% % 1% 5% 36% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% Bulb 13 1 incandec ent % 1% 3% 32% 7% 2% 1% % 1% 3% 32% 7% 2% 1% % 1% 2% 37% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 4% 34% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 4% 34% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 3% 39% 9% 2% 1% % 2% 13% 35% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 13% 35% 8% 2% 1% % 2% 1% 41% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 24% 37% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 24% 37% 1% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 44% 12% 2% 1% % 2% 26% 39% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 26% 39% 16% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 48% 18% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 46% 26% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 46% 26% 2% 1% % 2% 2% 46% 26% 2% 98% % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % 1% 5% 38% 2% 1% % % 4% 54% 4% 2% 1% % % 4% 54% 4% 2% 1% % % 4% 54% 4% 2% 1% % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% % % % 55% 43% 2% 1% Watt incandece nt 29 Watt (avg (avg 9 7 Bulb 43 Watt incandec 29 Watt (avg (avg ent Watt incandec 29 Watt (avg (avg ent % 48% 16% 29% 4% 2% 1% % 48% 16% 29% 4% 2% 1% % 45% 13% 33% 6% 2% 1% % 39% 22% 3% 6% 2% 1% % 39% 22% 3% 6% 2% 1% % 36% 18% 35% 8% 2% 1% % 35% 24% 3% 8% 2% 1% % 35% 24% 3% 8% 2% 1% % 32% 2% 36% 9% 2% 1% % 3% 26% 32% 9% 2% 1% % 3% 26% 32% 9% 2% 1% % 26% 21% 37% 13% 2% 1% % 25% 26% 34% 12% 2% 1% % 25% 26% 34% 12% 2% 1% % 2% 23% 39% 15% 2% 1% % 13% 29% 36% 19% 2% 1% % 13% 29% 36% 19% 2% 1% % 1% 27% 41% 19% 2% 1% % % 28% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 28% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 28% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % 18% 45% 35% 2% 1% % % 18% 45% 35% 2% 1% % % 18% 45% 35% 2% 1% % % 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% % % 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% % % 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% 2 22

5 Table below are baed on the % Replacement Interface-UptmG Bulb Count: number of bulb that are expected to be purchaed during the prediction period Table below are baed on the % Replacement Interface-UptmN Bulb Count: number of bulb that are expected to be purchaed during the prediction period Table below are baed on the % Replacement Interface-DI Bulb Count: number of bulb that are expected to be purchaed during the prediction period 215 1,471,824 1,471,824 12,71,331 2,623,736 2,623,736 4,985, ,471,824 1,471,824 12,71, ,761 2,623,736 4,985, ,471,824 1,471,824 12,87,359 2,623,736 2,623,736 3,23, ,947,716 1,947,716 13,345,754 3,264,244 3,264,244 5,938, ,947,716 1,947,716 13,345, ,119 3,264,244 5,925, ,174,789 11,174,789 12,881,284 3,264,244 3,264,244 3,828, ,629,927 11,629,927 14,142,267 3,597,797 3,597,797 7,489, ,629,927 11,629,927 14,142,267 1,247,52 3,597,797 7,489, ,629,927 11,629,927 13,717,792 3,597,797 3,597,797 4,334, ,364,548 12,364,548 14,593,767 4,381,744 4,381,744 9,967, ,364,548 12,364,548 14,593,767 1,434,957 4,381,744 9,967, ,364,548 12,364,548 14,659,536 4,381,744 4,381,744 5,483, ,13,413 13,13,413 14,582,494 6,596,843 6,596,843 1,734, ,13,413 13,13,413 14,582,494 1,867,678 6,596,843 1,734, ,13,413 13,13,413 15,797,72 6,596,843 6,596,843 7,646, ,152,467 15,152,467 14,915,655 1,522,427 1,522,427 13,32, ,152,467 15,152,467 14,849,487 2,814,287 1,522,427 13,276, ,152,467 15,152,467 15,821,112 1,522,427 1,522,427 1,677, ,38,991 17,38,991 15,362,337 15,488,631 15,488,631 17,264, ,38,991 17,38,991 15,362,337 4,188,912 15,488,631 17,264, ,38,991 17,38,991 17,196,177 15,488,631 15,488,631 15,51, ,495,139 18,495,139 15,362,983 16,745,512 16,745,512 18,885, ,495,139 18,495,139 15,362,983 4,815,37 16,745,512 18,885, ,495,139 18,495,139 18,495,139 16,745,512 16,745,512 16,745, ,664,532 19,664,532 15,15,466 18,451,871 18,451,871 2,368, ,664,532 19,664,532 15,15,466 5,588,454 18,451,871 2,368, ,664,532 19,664,532 19,664,532 18,451,871 18,451,871 18,451,871 Net Attibutable to the Net Attibutable to the Net Attibutable to the Baleline Count Count Net Count Baleline Count Count Net Count Baleline Count Count Net Count 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt Net Count 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt Net Count 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt 23 Watt 18 Watt 13Watt 9 Watt Net Count 215 1,759, ,753 7,244, ,292 2,541, ,233 8,376,87 888, ,43 123,48 1,131,94 192,81 2,229, ,759, ,753 7,244, ,292 2,541, ,233 8,376,87 888, ,43 123,48 1,131,94 192,81 2,229, ,759, ,753 7,244, ,292 2,85, ,493 8,376,87 792, ,851 61,74 1,131,94 96,4 1,615, ,895, ,45 7,493, ,58 2,614,791 1,114,727 8,628,89 987, ,67 278,682 1,135,37 264,92 2,398, ,895, ,45 7,493, ,58 2,614,791 1,114,727 8,628,89 987, ,67 278,682 1,135,37 264,92 2,398, ,895, ,45 7,72, ,58 2,222, ,93 8,855, , , ,859 1,135,37 12,418 1,76, ,32,649 9,715 7,971, ,714 3,16,189 1,24,952 9,11,684 99, ,54 124,237 1,138, ,728 2,512, ,32,649 9,715 7,971, ,714 3,16,189 1,24,952 9,11,684 99, ,54 124,237 1,138, ,728 2,512, ,32,649 9,715 7,971, ,714 2,36,495 1,149,189 9,338, , , ,473 1,366,63 144,943 2,87, ,17, ,764 8,453,31 775,38 3,156,96 1,28,71 9,366,872 1,41, ,533 62,37 913, ,537 2,229, ,17, ,764 8,453,31 775,38 3,156,96 1,28,71 9,366,872 1,41, ,533 62,37 913, ,537 2,229, ,17, ,764 8,453,31 775,38 2,433,448 1,277,31 1,52, , ,75 311,537 1,599, ,153 2,294, ,38,895 1,31,191 8,936, ,341 2,77,674 1,93,687 9,624,446 1,93, ,779 62, ,46 267,346 1,479, ,38,895 1,31,191 8,936, ,341 2,77,674 1,93,687 9,624,446 1,93, ,779 62, ,46 267,346 1,479, ,38,895 1,31,191 8,936, ,341 2,56,8 1,343,673 1,999, , ,95 312,482 2,62, ,521 2,694, ,448,215 1,253,79 1,572, ,596 2,911,391 1,253,79 9,653,56 1,96, ,176 - (919,387) 219,399 (236,812) 22 2,448,215 1,253,79 1,572, ,596 2,845,223 1,253,79 9,653,56 1,96, ,8 - (919,387) 219,399 (32,98) 22 2,448,215 1,253,79 1,572, ,596 2,712,887 1,535,794 1,572, , , ,85-121, , ,119,274 1,414,676 11,526, ,48 2,92,171 1,32,365 1,143, ,48 (199,13) (94,312) (1,383,239) - (1,676,653) 221 3,119,274 1,414,676 11,526, ,48 2,92,171 1,32,365 1,143, ,48 (199,13) (94,312) (1,383,239) - (1,676,653) 221 3,119,274 1,414,676 11,526, ,48 3,119,274 1,571,863 11,526, ,48-157, , ,328,354 1,576,589 12,486,584 1,13,612 2,928,952 1,387,398 9,943,2 1,13,612 (399,43) (189,191) (2,543,563) - (3,132,157) 222 3,328,354 1,576,589 12,486,584 1,13,612 2,928,952 1,387,398 9,943,2 1,13,612 (399,43) (189,191) (2,543,563) - (3,132,157) 222 3,328,354 1,576,589 12,486,584 1,13,612 3,328,354 1,576,589 12,486,584 1,13, ,939,232 1,739,447 12,755,942 1,229,912 2,937,732 1,644,568 9,277,49 1,156,117 (1,1,5) (94,879) (3,478,893) (73,795) (4,649,66) 223 3,939,232 1,739,447 12,755,942 1,229,912 2,937,732 1,644,568 9,277,49 1,156,117 (1,1,5) (94,879) (3,478,893) (73,795) (4,649,66) 223 3,939,232 1,739,447 12,755,942 1,229,912 3,939,232 1,739,447 12,755,942 1,229, Net Attributable to the Net Attributable to the Net Attributable to the Baleline Count Count Net Count Baleline Count Count Net Count Baleline Count Count Net Count 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt Net Count 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt Net Count 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt 13 Watt 9 Watt 8 Watt 5 Watt Net Count ,868 67,79 2,43, , ,65 152,346 3,211,96 1,481,141 5,782 84,637 1,167,986 1,57,958 2,361, ,868 67,79 2,43, , ,65 152,346 3,211,96 48,2 5,782 84,637 1,167,986 (375,163) 928, ,868 67,79 2,43, , , ,491 2,335, ,775 25,391 5, , , , ,69 169,792 2,343, , , ,687 3,87,577 1,697,916 63,672 84,896 1,464,453 1,61,198 2,674, ,69 169,792 2,343, , , ,687 3,87,577 48,167 5,937 84,896 1,464,453 (588,551) 1,11, ,69 169,792 2,343, ,719 14,78 23,75 2,636,15 848,958 25,469 33, , ,24 564, ,56 255,465 2,35, ,55 191,599 36,558 5,288,123 1,73,99 51,93 51,93 2,937, ,55 3,891, ,56 255,465 2,35, ,55 191,599 36,558 5,288,123 48,314 51,93 51,93 2,937,846 (83,235) 2,236, ,56 255,465 2,35, ,55 166,52 272,496 2,937, ,993 25,546 17,31 587,569 16, , ,558 37,491 2,946,787 96,99 23, ,656 7,366,968 2,28,585 64,61 34,166 4,42,181 1,67,677 5,586, ,558 37,491 2,946,787 96,99 23, ,656 7,366,968 48,461 64,61 34,166 4,42,181 (912,448) 3,65, ,558 37,491 2,946,787 96,99 217,86 341,656 3,536,145 1,387,979 51,248 34, , ,71 1,11, , ,962 4,729,165 1,285,99 334, ,232 8,276,39 1,713, ,51 34,269 3,546, ,366 4,138, , ,962 4,729,165 1,285,99 334, ,232 8,276,39 48,68 128,51 34,269 3,546,874 (1,236,491) 2,473, , ,962 4,729,165 1,285,99 38, ,232 5,32,311 1,66,374 12,88 34, , ,275 1,49, , ,595 7,78,14 2,4, , ,595 9,783,48 2,577, ,568-2,75, ,78 2,779, , ,595 7,78,14 2,4, , ,595 9,783,48 48, ,789-2,75,268 (1,992,14) 224, , ,595 7,78,14 2,4, , ,595 7,78,14 2,4, , , ,147 62,58 11,299,719 3,232, , ,56 13,381,246 2,81,227 9,51 34,477 2,81,527 (43,958) 1,775, ,147 62,58 11,299,719 3,232, , ,56 13,381,246 48,92 9,51 34,477 2,81,527 (3,183,283) (976,778) ,147 62,58 11,299,719 3,232, ,76 62,58 11,299,719 3,232,185 12, , ,61 657,26 11,93,25 3,782,221 55, ,26 14,912,756 2,89,65 129,676-2,982,551 (972,571) 2,139, ,61 657,26 11,93,25 3,782,221 55, ,26 14,912,756 49,49 129,676-2,982,551 (3,733,171) (62,944) ,61 657,26 11,93,25 3,782, ,61 657,26 11,93,25 3,782, , ,75 12,863,417 4,335, , ,679 15,854,99 3,143, ,84 (52,26) 2,991,492 (1,192,261) 1,916, , ,75 12,863,417 4,335, , ,679 15,854,99 49, ,84 (52,26) 2,991,492 (4,286,3) (1,177,749) , ,75 12,863,417 4,335,496 57, ,75 12,863,417 4,335, ,, Net Bulb Attributable to the 5,, Net Bulb Attributable to the 3,, Net Bulb Attributable to the 6,, 4,, 3,, 2,5, Bulb Count 4,, 2,, - (2,,) Net Count Net Count Bulb Count 2,, 1,, - (1,,) (2,,) (3,,) Net Count Net Count Bulb Count 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Net Count Net Count (4,,) (6,,) (4,,) (5,,) (6,,)

6 Baed on the % Replacement Interface-UptmG Delta Watt: Average Delta Watt baed on four replacement categorie (weighted by ale weighting) Baed on the % Replacement Interface-UptmN Delta Watt: Average Delta Watt baed on four replacement categorie (weighted by ale weighting) Baed on the % Replacement Interface-DI Delta Watt: Average Delta Watt baed on four replacement categorie (weighted by Direct Intall program ale weighting)

7 Baed on the % Replacement Interface-UptmG Induced Saving (MWh): Difference between Impact and ,64 53, , ,465 4,917 68, ,173 28,587 19, ,3 66, , ,92 48,475 85, ,79 36, , ,254 88, , ,713 61,584 72, ,25 55, , ,29 18, , ,24 66, ,875 69,38 176, ,62 59,992 86, ,794 25, ,446 66, , ,998 29, ,395 6, ,219 22, ,27 26, ,117 6, ,515 11, ,415 41, ,993 14, , 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Annual Gro Energy Saving: Annual MWh aving baed on cenario repone to EISA Induced Saving (MWh) Baed on the % Replacement Interface-UptmN Induced Saving (MWh): Difference between Impact and 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Annual Gro Energy Saving: Annual MWh aving baed on cenario repone to EISA Induced Saving (MWh) ,34 618,34 751, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,68 196, , , , ,27 149, , , , , , , , , , , ,13 22,52 22,52 256, , , ,9 149,48 149,48 237, ,133 41, , , , , , , ,98 226, , , , , , ,65 157,65 266, , ,796 34, , ,692 24, , , , ,49 249,49 318, , , ,46 194, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,32 216, , , , , , ,95 163,95 169, , , ,683 47,822 47, , , , ,77 186,6 186,6 212, ,59 14,59 86, ,62 122,62 128, , , ,471 66,932 66, , ,52 269,52 259, , , , ,996 48,996 46,862 88,37 88,37 13, ,916 25, , , , ,174 Baed on the % Replacement Interface-DI Induced Saving (MWh): Difference between Impact and 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Annual Gro Energy Saving: Annual MWh aving baed on cenario repone to EISA Induced Saving (MWh)