Economic Survey Key highlights

Transcription

1 Economic Survey Key highlights Flash news 29 January 2018 KPMG.com/in 1

2 The Hon ble Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, presented the Economic Survey in the Parliament on 29 January This annual document contains the developments in the Indian economy during the financial year ; summarises the performance of major developmental initiatives; highlights the steps taken by the government; and, the prospects of the economy in the short-to-medium term. Following are some of the key highlights of the survey: The state of the Indian economy Performance during and During FY15 18, India s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has averaged to 7.3 per cent, highest amongst the major economies of the world. The growth has been achieved in an environment of low inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction in the fiscal deficit-to-gdp ratio, which makes it more creditable After registering GDP growth of over 7 per cent for the third year in succession in FY17, the Indian economy is headed for a slower growth, projected at per cent in FY18. The slowdown in growth rate could be credited to the subdued growth in agriculture and allied and industry sectors, coupled with temporary disruptions caused by the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST). Growth rate of GDP and its components GDP indicators a b GDP (constant prices) (INR lakh crore) Growth (in per cent) GVA at basic prices ( prices) (INR crore) Growth (in per cent) a: provisional estimates; b: first advance estimates GDP performance in from the demand side (comprising consumption, investment and net exports) In FY18, the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively vis-à-vis 8.0 per cent and 18.9 per cent in FY172 The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant prices, an indicator of investments across the country, is expected to increase 4.5 per cent in FY18, reversing the downward trend that it has been following since 2011 The share of net exports of goods and services in GDP is expected to decline from -0.7 per cent in FY17 to -1.8 per cent in FY18 as the growth in imports is expected to outpace the growth in exports. Inflation and monetary policy 1 Economic Survey , Ministry of Finance, 29 Januaty First Advance Estimate of National Income , Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, 5 January

3 India s Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation increased to 2.9 per cent in FY18 (April December) as against 0.7 per cent in FY17 (April December) owing to the surge in global crude oil prices coupled with rising food prices. The inflation stood at 3.6 per cent as of December 2017 The Consumer Price Index - Combined (CPI-C)-based inflation declined to 3.3 per cent in FY18 (April December) from 4.8 per cent in the corresponding period of FY17. Inflation for all the major subgroups of CPI-C, except housing, and fuel and light groups, declined in (April December) over (April December). GDP outlook for Favourable indicators such as moderate levels of inflation, anticipated growth of the industrial sector, expectation of greater stability in GST, expected recovery in investment levels, and ongoing structural reforms could propel India s economy to grow at an accelerated pace Furthermore, the expected growth in global economy in 2018 could also provide an impetus to India s exports, which has already shown acceleration in the current financial year However, the country s growth could be impacted by the increase in crude oil prices along with protectionist tendencies in some of the countries Considering the growth potential and downside risks, the government expects India s GDP to expand at a growth rate between per cent during Public finance The fiscal policy for reiterated the government s commitment to cut down the fiscal deficit to 3.2 per cent of GDP, and further contribute towards fiscal consolidation. Considerable improvement in direct and indirect tax collections could lead to better fiscal numbers. Non-debt receipts of the union government (April November 2017) Particulars Central government s receipts (in INR lakh crore) Percentage change over previous year Gross tax revenue Tax (net to Centre) Non-tax revenue Revenue receipts Non-debt capital receipts Non-debt receipts During April November 2017, the Gross Tax Revenue (GTR) stood at INR10.87 lakh crore, registering a Y-o-Y growth rate of 16.5 per cent, in line with the ambitious budget estimates for FY18

4 The growth in direct tax collections of the government kept pace with the previous year, and is expected to meet the Budget estimates for FY18, considering that more than half of the direct tax collections are normally realised during the last four months of the financial year During April November 2017, the non-debt capital receipts grew at Y-o-Y rate of 89.9 per cent owing to minority stake sale in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) and listing of insurance companies The revenue deficit and fiscal deficit grew at an accelerated pace of 40.8 per cent and 33.6 per cent, respectively, on account of reduced non-debt receipts and increased total expenditure by the government Advancing of the Budget cycle and processes by almost a month has also partly contributed to the greater deficits in FY18, compared to the corresponding periods in FY17 In FY18 (April November), the revenue expenditure grew at a Y-o-Y rate of 13.1 per cent on account of increase in interest payment liabilities, petroleum subsidies and pensions under the Seventh Pay Commission. Monetary management and financial intermediation The monetary policy during was conducted under the revised statutory framework, which became effective on 5 August 2016 During (till January 2018), the monetary policy remained steady with only one policy rate cut in August The Policy Repo Rate was reduced 25 basis points to 6.0 per cent The Reserve Bank of India scaled up its liquidity absorption operations (using LAF, Treasury Bills (TBs) and OMO operations), post demonitisation. As a consequence of these measures, net liquidity declined from an excess of INR3.1 lakh crore as on 31 March 2017 to INR47.8 thousand crore as on 11 January 2018, holding inflation in check The performance of the banking sector, especially the Public Sector Banks (PSBs), continued to remain subdued in the current financial year. The Gross Non-Performing Advances (GNPA) ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) increased from 9.6 per cent to 10.2 per cent between March 2017 and September During the same period, GNPA ratio of PSBs increased from 12.5 per cent to 13.5 per cent Non-Food Credit (NFC) grew 8.85 per cent y-o-y in November 2017 as compared to 4.75 per cent in November 2016, driven by growth in lending to Services and Personal Loans (PL) segments The industrial sector credit growth picked up in November 2017 after remaining persistently negative from October 2016 to October However, the growth of credit to medium scale industries has remained negative since June 2015 The Reserve Bank of India has introduced a new category of Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC) called NBFC-P2P (NBFC- Peer to Peer Lending Platform) to widen the scope of financial inclusion through direct interaction between small lenders and small borrowers The NBFC sector, as a whole, accounted for 17 per cent of bank assets and 0.26 per cent of bank deposits as on 30 September Loans and advances of NBFCs registered a growth of 6.6 per cent during the first half of , which was 12.7 per cent during

5 The Indian mutual fund industry registered a robust growth during April 2016 October The AUM of mutual funds industry witnessed a constant growth in terms of new investment and increase in value of the existing investments as result of overall good market conditions. The insurance penetration, which was 2.71 per cent in 2001, increased to 3.49 per cent in 2016 (life insurance 2.72 per cent and general insurance 0.77 per cent). The insurance density in India, which was USD11.5 in 2001, has increased to USD59.7 in 2016 (life insurance 46.5 per cent and general insurance 13.2 per cent) Riding on the positive sentiments about the growth in the Indian economy, the S&P BSE Sensex closed at 34,433 points on 10 January 2018, witnessing a gain of 16.5 per cent from its closing of 29,621 points on 31 March External sector India s current account deficit (CAD) increased from 0.4 per cent of GDP in 1H17, i.e., April to September 2016, to 1.8 per cent of GDP in 1H18. The widening of the CAD was primarily on account of a higher trade deficit (USD74.8 billion) brought about by a larger increase in merchandise imports relative to exports India s trade deficit (on custom basis) widened to USD74.5 billion in 1H18 from USD43.4 billion in 1H17. Balance of payments: Summary (USD billion) Particulars FY17 1H (April September 2016) Revised In 1H18, merchandise imports (on Balance of Payments basis) grew 22.1 per cent and exports by 11.3 per cent The surge in imports owed to the sharp rise in imports of gold purchases (front loading) by jewellers in 1Q18, anticipating the GST implementation. This, coupled with the rise in crude oil prices, led to the increase in import bill. Import performance of some important sectors (growth in %) FY18 1H (April September 2017) Provisional Current account balance (3.9) (22.2) Capital account balance Overall balance Sectors (April November 2017) Gems and jewellery 53.6 Ores and minerals 55.6 Electronic goods 29.7 Growth indication Positive growth Petroleum Oil and Lubricants (POL) 21.9 In (April December), the exports grew 12.1 per cent, with POL and non-pol growth at 18.5 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively. In (April November), amongst the

6 major sectors, export growth was significant in engineering goods and crude petroleum products; moderate growth in chemicals and related products, and textiles and allied products; however, negative growth in gems and jewellery. Two important developments on the trade policy front during the year relate to the mid-term review of Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) and the recent multilateral negotiations of the WTO in December 2017 Improved logistics have significant implications on increasing exports, as a 10 per cent decrease in indirect logistics cost can contribute to about 5 8 per cent of extra exports. India has improved its ranking in the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) from 54 in 2014 to 35 in However, compared to countries like Singapore (rank 5), South Africa (20), Taiwan (25) and China (27), India still lags and needs to take proactive steps to improve its ranking. Sector-wise performance of GDP Agriculture and food management The growth, in GVA, in agriculture and allied sectors at prices for is 4.9 per cent (provisional estimates), which is significant improvement from 0.7 per cent in The share of agriculture and allied sectors in total GVA at current prices is 17.4 per cent (PE) in , as against 17.5 per cent in The Gross Capital Formation (GCF) in agriculture and allied sectors, relative to GVA in this sector, witnessed a fluctuating trend i.e., from 18.2 per cent in to 16.4 per cent in As per the Fourth Advance Estimates for released by the Department of Agriculture, India achieved a record production of food grains, estimated at crore tonne, which is 10.6 million tonne higher than the previous recorded production of food grains in The production of rice is estimated at million tonne during , which would be a new record. Similarly, the production of wheat, estimated at 98.4 million tonne, is higher by 2.6 per cent compared to the previous recorded production achieved during This increase in production of food grains and other crops was mainly achieved on account of good rainfall during the monsoons of apart from several policy initiatives taken up by the government The sector has been witnessing a gradual structural change over the years. The share of livestock, in GVA terms, in agriculture has been rising steadily, while the share of the crop sector, in GVA terms, has been on a decline from 65 per cent in to 60 per cent in During the year , the total production of quality seed was 620,743 quintals against the target of 462,404 quintals The all-india percentage of net irrigated area to total cropped area was 34.5 per cent, which makes a large area of cultivation dependent on seasonal rainfall During , the target of 30 per cent of the Gross Cropped Area (GCA) in the country for Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) was achieved. In , for a gross premium of INR22,004 crore, the overall coverage stood at 571 lakh farmer applications

7 A sum of INR20,339 crore has been approved by the Government of India in to meet various obligations arising from interest subvention being provided to farmers on short-term crop loans During the current year ( ), 45 patent applications were filed at the Indian Patent Office (IPO) in agriculture research and education, taking the total number of patent applications to 1,025 The government has initiated reforms in the field of agricultural marketing, and has given a big push to the use of technology in agriculture, and also adopted Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) mode for timely delivery of extension services, credit and other inputs to small and marginal farmers. The priority of the government in 2018 is to provide opportunities to farmers, allowing them to diversify their income-generating opportunities and mitigate various risks by facilitating the development of agricultural sub-sectors, such as livestock and fisheries. Industrial, corporate and infrastructure performance The industrial sector, which constitutes mining, manufacturing, electricity and construction, holds a 31.2 per cent share in GVA. The industry grew at 5.8 per cent in 2Q18, compared to 1.6 per cent in 1Q18. This was mainly due to the robust growth of 7 per cent in the manufacturing sector in 2Q18 The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) registered a 25 month high growth of 8.4 per cent with manufacturing growing at 10.2 per cent in November Higher growth in capital goods, infrastructure/construction and consumer non-durable had a significant impact on IIP numbers. IIP-based growth rates of broad sectors/use-based classification (in per cent) Sectors (Apr-Nov) Mining Manufacturing Electricity Capital goods Primary goods Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumer durables Consumer non-durables The index of eight core industries measures the performance of eight core industries, i.e., coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity. In , these industries grew 4.8 per cent in compared to 3 per cent in

8 Growth in the production of eight core industries (in per cent) (April - November) Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Refinery products Fertilizers Steel Cement Electricity During April November , the eight core industries registered an overall growth rate of 3.9 per cent. The production of coal, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity registered positive growth during this period Growth in sales (Y-o-Y) of over 1,700 non-government non-financial (NGNF) listed manufacturing companies in the first two quarters of was 8.9 per cent in 1Q and 9.5 per cent in 2Q of This was on account of improved performance of industries such as iron and steel, motor vehicles and other transport equipment within the manufacturing sector. During the first and second quarters of FY18, adverse growth in profits was witnessed mainly on account of postponement of production, related to the implementation of GST Nominal credit growth (y-o-y) to industry turned positive to 1 per cent in November 2017 for the first time after witnessing negative growth since October Lower credit supply could be attributed to impaired balance sheets of public sector banks due to higher NPAs; however, it could also reflect weak demand for credit in the economy In , till September, the flow of total FDI was USD33.75 billion, compared to USD60.08 billion in In 2016, the total road length increased to 5,617,812km, while the total number of motor vehicles grew four times to reach 22.9 crore During (up to September 2017), Indian Railways carried crore tonne of revenue earning freight traffic as against crore tonne during (up to September 2016), showing an increase of 5.06 per cent during the period In (April September), domestic airlines carried 5.75 crore passengers, with a growth rate of 16 per cent over the corresponding period the previous year. Scheduled Indian and foreign carriers carried 2.92 crore passengers to and from India, and witnessed a growth rate of 9 per cent in (April September) over the corresponding period the previous year During (April September), the domestic air cargo handled was 6.1 lakh MT, showing a growth of per cent over the corresponding period the previous year, while the international air cargo of 10.7 lakh MT was handled, showing a growth of per cent As of September 2017, the total subscribers stood at crore, out of which crore connections were in rural areas and crore in urban areas. Wireless telephony constituted per cent of all subscriptions, whereas the share of landline telephones stood at 1.96 per cent at the end of September 2017 The all-india installed power generation capacity has increased substantially over the years and reached 330,860.6MW as on 30 November The peak deficit has declined from 9 per cent in to 1.6 per cent during

9 Services sector Advance estimates of growth for : According to the first advance estimates for , the services sector is expected to grow at 8.3 per cent in , higher than the growth of 7.7 per cent in The higher growth can be attributed to the rise in growth percentage in trade, repair, hotels and restuarants, financial services and construction categories. The public administration, defence and other services categories registered a growth of 11.3 per cent in as against 6.9 per cent in , owing to higher payments of wages and salaries to government staff due to the implementation of recommendations of the Seventh Pay Commission. This growth is expected to decelerate to 9.3 per cent in Share and growth rate of India s services sector (GVA at basic prices) Particulars Trade,repairs, hotels and restaurants Share (Per cent) Growth (Per cent) Transport, storage, communication and services related to broadcasting Financial services Real estate, ownership of dwelling and professional services Total GVA at basic prices Note: Shares are in current prices and growth in constant prices Services trade Exports: o India has been one of the largest exporters of commercial services in the world, with a share of 3.4 per cent in 2016 o Services exports registered a CAGR of 8.3 per cent between and , with an adverse growth of 2.4 per cent in the year o Public administration and defence, and others Construction Total services Services exports recorded a robust growth of 16.2 per cent during April September , with an improvement in certain major sectors such as travel and software services - 3 Provisional estimates 4 First advance estimates

10 Service export and import growth (%) H H1 Export Import o With a pricing pressure on traditional services and a challenging global business environment soaring over domestic software companies, software services exports increased marginally by 2.3 per cent. Imports o o o India s services imports registered a growth of 17.4 per cent during April September as payments on the transport sector increased 15 per cent Amongst the other major services imports, travel grew 12 per cent and business services by 11.3 per cent, during the same period Software services registered a significant growth of 47.6 per cent in 1H18, as compared to a growth of 25.9 per cent in 1H17. Tourism services: With 8.8 million foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in 2016, the tourism sector experienced a growth of 9.7 per cent in terms of FTAs. In 2017, FTAs were 10.2 million, with a growth of 15.6 per cent, while the Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs) from tourism were USD27.7 billion, registering a growth of 20.8 per cent over 2016 IT-BPM services: India s Information Technology Business Process Management (IT-BPM) industry grew 8.1 per cent in to USD139.9 billion (excluding e-commerce and hardware) from USD129.4 billion in Furthermore, the exports grew 7.6 per cent to reach a value of USD116.1 billion in Real estate and housing: The growth of this sector decelerated in the last three years from 7.5 per cent in to 6.6 per cent in , and further to 4.4 per cent in The growth of the construction sector which includes buildings, dams, roads and bridges has decelerated to 1.7 per cent in from 5.0 per cent in FDI in services: During (April October 2017), the FDI equity flows to the top10 services in service sector grew 15 per cent, as compared to an adverse growth of 0.9 per cent in The growth is mainly due to the higher FDI in two sectors, i.e., telecommunications, and computer software and hardware Nikkei Markit services: A Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for India, Nikkei/Markit Services, improved from 48.5 in November 2017 to 50.9 in December 2017.

11 Recent initiatives to boost economic growth Bank recapitalisation scheme The Government of India (GoI) has announced capital infusion of INR2.1 lakh crore in the public sector banks in 2H17. The measure entails budgetary allocation of INR76,000 crore by the government, while the remaining amount is to be raised by the sale of recapitalisation bonds. The INR2.1 lakh crore package is greater than the cumulative capital infusion by the government over the last 31 fiscal years. 5 During FY18, banks are expected to receive INR88,139 crore funding support, with INR80,000 crore coming from recapitalisation bonds. Furthermore, the government has aligned capital infusion with reforms to be undertaken by banks to ensure higher accountability and transparency. 6 The package is expected to help the public sector banks meet BASEL III norms, stimulate credit growth and mitigate some risks associated with high level of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) in the Indian banking system. Expanding road network To boost road infrastructure in the country and foster job creation, the Government of India (GoI) announced an INR6.9 lakh crore investment outlay to construct 83,677km of road network, over a period of five years. The ambitious programme is expected to generate 14.2 crore man-day jobs for the country. As per the initial estimates, the amount of INR6.9 lakh crore could be derived from debt funding (INR2.1 lakh crore), private investments (INR1.1 lakh crore), Central Road Fund (CRF) (INR97,000 crore) and budgetary support (INR59,000 crore), with an addition of INR2.2 lakh crore funding support from CRF, Toll-Operate-Transfer (TOT) based projects and toll collections of National Highway Authority of India (NHAI). 7 Besides job creation, the Indian economy could also derive benefits such as reduced cost of logistics, increased last-mile connectivity and increased private investments from the programme. Improving in business ecosystem The country was ranked at the hundredth position, registering an improvement of 30 places, in the World Bank s Ease of Doing Business (EoDB) 2017 report. The significant jump was a result of the government s pro-reform agenda, comprising measures such as passing of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), simplifying tax computation and merging application for Permanent Account Number (PAN) and Tax Account Number (TAN). 5 The whys and hows of PSU bank recapitalisation, Live Mint, 10 January PSU banks to get annual report cards, Rs 88,000 crore infusion, The Times of India, 24 January Cabinet approves Rs7 trillion road construction plan, including Bharatmala, Live Mint, 24 October 2017

12 Going forward, the country could further improve its rankings, as it is expected to undertake various measures such as simplifying the registration process for firms and reducing delay in construction permits. In addition, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime and Aadhaarbased identification approach could further help streamline challenges pertaining to the regulatory regime. 8 Goods and Services Tax (GST) GoI carried out a significant overhaul of the indirect tax regime and launched GST in July 2017, with the vision of creating a unified market. Under this regime, various goods and services would be taxed as per five slabs 28 per cent, 18 per cent, 12 per cent, 5 per cent and zero tax. To reduce the short-term inflationary effect of GST, the GST Council cut tax rates on more than 250 goods and services by moving them to lower tax slabs in two separate rate cuts. 9,10 Post GST implementation, India s tax net expanded, as a 50 per cent increase was recorded in unique indirect taxpayers. Moving forward, this tax could undergo more changes, such as subsuming of two or more tax slabs and introducing single form for service providers, which could further streamline issues faced by businesses. GST is expected to bring various benefits to businesses and consumers such as easier compliance, input tax credits, reduced logistic costs and a transparent tax regime. 8 Ease of doing business: Government targets 90 reforms to climb rank in World Bank's report, The Economic Times, 4 January GST Council cuts tax rate for 29 goods, 53 services. Find out what will get cheaper, Business Today, 19 January FM Arun Jaitley Says GST Stabilised in Short Time, Hints at Further Rejig of Rates, News 18, 27 January 2018

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