0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0% 1.5% 0% Growth Rate (p.a.) Population Growth Rate (p.a.) No No Yes (small) (small)

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0% 1.5% 0% Growth Rate (p.a.) Population Growth Rate (p.a.) No No Yes (small) (small)"

Transcription

1 Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models Coenen, Erceg, Freedman, Furceri, Kumhof, Lalonde, Laxton, Lindé, Mourougane, Muir, Mursula, de Resende, Roberts, Roeger, Snudden, Trabandt, in't Veld Web Appendix: Key Model Parameters Long Run Growth Rates and Interest Rates Model Frequency Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Annual Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Technology 0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0% 1.5% 0% Growth Rate (p.a.) Population Growth Rate (p.a.) Gross Real Interest Rate (p.a.) UIP-Related Risk Premium Government Debt Risk Premium 0% 1.0% 1.1% (2010; varies over time) 1.0% 0.4% 0% 0.2% 0% 3% 3% Endogenous 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% (no steady state value) - Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes (small) (small) (small) (small) (small) No No No No No No Yes No (3 bp per 1 pp gov. debt) Monetary Policy Rule Coefficients Lagged Int. Rate Long-Run Weight in US, RC; on CPI Inflation 2.5 EU; 1.9 JA Contemporaneous or Lead on CPI Inflation 1-year-ahead (yr-on-yr (yr-on-yr (yr-on-yr (yr-on-yr (qu-on-qu 1-quarterahead (qu.-on-qu. Weighted average of cont. and 1- year-ahead

2 Inflation Target Weight on Output Gap Weight on GDP Growth Weight on Nominal Exchange Rate Targeting or Instrument Rule Output Gap Coefficient Debt Gap Coefficient Deficit Gap Coefficient 0% 2.5% US 1% JA 2% elsewhere 2% 2.5% US 1% JA 2% elsewhere 2% 2% 2% 2% in US; 0 elsewhere in AS, 0 elsewhere in AS, 0 elsewhere Fiscal Rule Coefficients - Instrument rule. Instrument rule. Targeting rule. Instrument Instrument rule. Instrument Instrument rule. Lump-sum Labor income Deficit-to- rule. Lump-sum rule. Labor income taxes respond to taxes respond, GDP ratio Lump-sum taxes Labor income taxes respond, debt-to-gdp with smoothing, responds to taxes respond respond to debtto-gdp taxes respond with smoothing, ratio. to deficit- and/or output gap. to deficit. ratio. to deficit- to deficit- and/or debt-to-gdp ratio Lump-sum and/or debt-to- debt-to-gdp taxes adjust US; 0.49 EU; 0.33 JA; 0.25 AS; 0.30 RC (change in tax rate) (change in tax rate) GDP ratio. ratio (debt) (change in debt) 0.05 (change in debt)

3 Unconstrained Households Planning Horizon Avg. Remaining Working Life Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution in Consumption Habit Persistence in Consumption Labor Supply Elasticity Share of Liquidity- Constrained or Hand-to-Mouth Households Share of Credit- Constrained Households Households and Household Preferences Infinite Infinite Infinite 20 years Infinite Infinite Infinite Infinite years (implicit) Errorcorrection coefficient (adjustment cost framework): (+ labor habit) AS; 0.15 US; 0.20 CA, JA; 0.25 elsewhere n.a EA 0.33 US 0.40 (nondurable consumption only) 0.5 AS, RC; 0.25 elsewhere

4 Elasticities of Substitution Between Capital and Labor tradables, nontradables, gasoline. 0.6 oil, commodities. Capital/Labor and Oil Reserves in Oil Production Capital/Labor and Commodities Reserves in Commodities Production Imports from Different Regions (for models with >2 regions) final goods. 3 oil and commodities Domestic and Imported Intermediate Goods Tradable and Nontradable Intermediates Domestic and Imported Final Goods - 10 oil; 5 commodities; 1.5 final goods

5 Nontradables Intermediates Prices Tradables Intermediates Prices Steady State Gross Markups US; EA, NEA; - CA; 1.41 JA; 1.20 U;S 1.25 AS; RoW RC; 1.23 CX US; 1.2 CA; JA; 1.14 AS; 1.3 RC; 1.18 CX Nominal Wages US; 1.2 CA; 1.25 JA; 1.16 AS; 1.3 RC; 1.3 CX Final Goods Prices (+1.05 for retailing) Imported Goods (Final & Prices Intermediate) (for pricing-tomarket) Leverage (Debt / Net Worth) External Finance Premium (p.a.) Financial Sector % % % %

6 Labor Income / GDP 53% (adjusting for the gross markup) Nontradables Labor Income / GDP Tradables Labor Income / GDP Nontradables Production / Total Production Depreciation Rate of Public Capital (p.a.) Steady State Factor Shares and Depreciation Rates 70% US; 70% 60%; 65% 70% 66% 54% 62% CA; (Business 54% AS 64% JA; sector) (adjusting for 51% AS; the gross 69% RC; markup) 60% CX - 78% US; 72% CA; 72% JA; 59% AS; 77% RC; 77% CX - 66% US; 55% CA; 56% JA; 47% AS; 63% RC; 50% CX % US; 50.5% CA; 54.6% JA; 35.0% AS; 64.9% RC; 41.5% CX - 66%; 60% AS % %; 48% AS - 70% 66% 54% - 50% % EA; 53% NEA; 61% US; 51% RoW - 1% - 4% 1.25% 10% 5% - -

7 Depreciation Rate of Private Capital (p.a.) Output Elasticity w.r.t. Public Capital 10% 8% Housing: 1.5%; Cons. Durables: 22%; High-tech: 32%; NRS: 2.7%; Other Equipment: 13% (2010) 10% 10% 10% 6% 12% Quantity Adjustment Costs Labor Demand by No Yes Yes No No No Yes No Firms Consumption Spending No No Yes Yes No No No No Investment Spending Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Retail Sales Yes - Yes (transaction - - costs related to money holdings) Intermediate Goods No Yes No Yes - Yes No No Imported Inputs Final Goods Imported Inputs No Yes No Yes - No No No

8 Price/Wage Adjustment Costs - Calvo delta or Adjustment Cost Coefficient OECD NAWM QUEST SIGMA Fiscal Calvo or Adjustment Costs Calvo Adjustment Adjustment Adjustment Calvo Calvo Adjustment Calvo Costs Costs Costs Costs Prices, Inflation (indexation or infl. adj. costs), or Hybrid (price indexation=0.5; wage indexation=0.5) Wage Stickiness Coefficients CA; 1050 JA, RC; 800 elsewhere Tradables Intermediates Price Stickiness Coefficients Nontradables Intermediates Price Stickiness Coefficients Imported Intermediate Goods Price Stickiness Coefficients (pricing-to-market) Imported Final Goods Price Stickiness Coefficients (pricing-to-market) Final Goods Price Stickiness Coefficients JA, RC; 700 elsewhere - 60 EU; 40 elsewhere - 60 EU; 40 elsewhere JA, RC; 700 elsewhere - 60 EU; 40 elsewhere EU; 40 US; 4 elsewhere EU; 40 US; 4 elsewhere EU; 40 elsewhere Real wage persistence: 0.73 Wage setting inertia: 0.77 Hybrid (price indexation=0.5; wage indexation=0.75) - Domestic sales: 0.90 EA, 0.83 US Foreign sales: 0.30 Hybrid (price indexation=0.75; wage indexation=0.75) Domestic sales: 0.85 Foreign sales: EA, NEA; - 16 US, RoW

E ects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

E ects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models E ects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models DOUGLAS LAXTON International Monetary Fund June 2nd, 2009 Contributors European Commission: Jan in t Veld and Werner Roeger International Monetary Fund: Michael

More information

The global economy has over recent years suffered from a number of large negative

The global economy has over recent years suffered from a number of large negative American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(): 68 http://dx.doi.org/.57/mac.4.. Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models By Günter Coenen, Christopher J. Erceg, Charles Freedman, Davide Furceri,

More information

Macro Modelling: From the Financial Crisis to the Long Slump in the EA

Macro Modelling: From the Financial Crisis to the Long Slump in the EA Macro Modelling: From the Financial Crisis to the Long Slump in the EA Werner Roeger (European Commission, DG ECFIN) April 216 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and should

More information

1. New tools and initiatives

1. New tools and initiatives Macroeconomic Model Comparison and Policy Robustness: New Tools & Applications Macro Financial Modeling Summer Session Wequassett Resort, Cape Cod, June 17-21, 2018 IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt Outline

More information

Balázs Krusper and Gábor Pellényi: impacts of fiscal adjustments in Western european countries on the Hungarian economy*

Balázs Krusper and Gábor Pellényi: impacts of fiscal adjustments in Western european countries on the Hungarian economy* Balázs Krusper and Gábor Pellényi: impacts of fiscal adjustments in Western european countries on the Hungarian economy* In the wake of the Greek debt crisis, concerns about the sustainability of public

More information

IS FISCAL STIMULUS A GOOD IDEA? Ray C. Fair. May 2012 Revised March 2014 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1861

IS FISCAL STIMULUS A GOOD IDEA? Ray C. Fair. May 2012 Revised March 2014 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1861 IS FISCAL STIMULUS A GOOD IDEA? By Ray C. Fair May 2012 Revised March 2014 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1861 COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven,

More information

Does the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy Rules?

Does the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy Rules? Does the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy Rules? Michael Kumhof International Monetary Fund Douglas Laxton International Monetary Fund Kanda Naknoi Purdue University July 27 1 Introduction The Question

More information

Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?

Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery? Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery? Olivier Blanchard, Christopher Erceg, and Jesper Lindé Cambridge-INET-EABCN Conference Persistent Output Gaps:

More information

The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters: Policy Simulations for Hungary

The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters: Policy Simulations for Hungary WP/13/27 The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters: Policy Simulations for Hungary Alejandro Guerson 213 International Monetary Fund WP/13/27 IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department The Composition

More information

Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates Martin Bodenstein, Luca Guerrieri, Christopher Gust Federal Reserve Board "Advances in International Macroeconomics - Lessons from the Crisis," Brussels,

More information

Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy

Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy WP//72 Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy Dennis Botman and Manmohan S. Kumar 2 International Monetary Fund WP//72 IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Fundamental Determinants

More information

Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound

Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound Sebastian Schmidt European Central Bank November 204 First draft: January 203 Abstract Does the zero nominal interest rate bound provide a rationale

More information

On the Merits of Conventional vs Unconventional Fiscal Policy

On the Merits of Conventional vs Unconventional Fiscal Policy On the Merits of Conventional vs Unconventional Fiscal Policy Matthieu Lemoine and Jesper Lindé Banque de France and Sveriges Riksbank The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those

More information

Revisiting the Government Purchase Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound

Revisiting the Government Purchase Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound Revisiting the Government Purchase Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound Phuong V. Ngo a, a Department of Economics, Cleveland State University, 2121 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44115. Abstract This paper

More information

Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Confronting Fiscal Dominance and Imperfect Credibility

Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Confronting Fiscal Dominance and Imperfect Credibility Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Confronting Fiscal Dominance and Imperfect Credibility Ehsan Choudhri Carleton University Hamza Malik State Bank of Pakistan Background State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been

More information

Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy

Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy Róbert Ambriško, Jan Babecký, Jakub Ryšánek, and Vilém Valenta December 2013 Abstract We build a satellite DSGE model to investigate the transmission

More information

Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks Massimo Giovannini (European Commission, Joint Research Centre) Robert Kollmann (ECARES, Université Libre

More information

Estimation of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations.

Estimation of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations. MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Estimation of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations. Stefan Belliveau 5. March 2012 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37166/ MPRA Paper No. 37166,

More information

Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model WP/13/55 Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model Derek Anderson, Benjamin Hunt, Mika Kortelainen, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, Susanna

More information

Estimates of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations.

Estimates of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations. MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Estimates of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations. Stefan Belliveau 5. March 2012 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37103/ MPRA Paper No. 37103,

More information

The Implications for Fiscal Policy Considering Rule-of-Thumb Consumers in the New Keynesian Model for Romania

The Implications for Fiscal Policy Considering Rule-of-Thumb Consumers in the New Keynesian Model for Romania Vol. 3, No.3, July 2013, pp. 365 371 ISSN: 2225-8329 2013 HRMARS www.hrmars.com The Implications for Fiscal Policy Considering Rule-of-Thumb Consumers in the New Keynesian Model for Romania Ana-Maria SANDICA

More information

Options for Fiscal Consolidation in the United Kingdom

Options for Fiscal Consolidation in the United Kingdom WP//8 Options for Fiscal Consolidation in the United Kingdom Dennis Botman and Keiko Honjo International Monetary Fund WP//8 IMF Working Paper European Department and Fiscal Affairs Department Options

More information

Working Paper Series. global policy at the zero lower bound IN A large-scale. No 1254 / October 2010

Working Paper Series. global policy at the zero lower bound IN A large-scale. No 1254 / October 2010 Working Paper Series No 1254 / global policy at the zero lower bound IN A large-scale DSGE model by Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot, Ricardo Mestre and João Sousa WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 1254 / OCTOBER

More information

Estimation of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations.

Estimation of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations. MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Estimation of the fiscal impact multiplier in reduced-form equations. Stefan Belliveau 5. March 2012 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38062/ MPRA Paper No. 38062,

More information

Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts Vs. Tax Hikes

Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts Vs. Tax Hikes Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts Vs. Tax Hikes Christopher J. Erceg and Jesper Lindé Federal Reserve Board October, 2012 Erceg and Lindé (Federal Reserve Board) Fiscal Consolidations

More information

Government Spending Multipliers and Imperfect Asset Substitution

Government Spending Multipliers and Imperfect Asset Substitution Government Spending Multipliers and Imperfect Asset Substitution John Nana Francois West Texas A&M University Andrew Keinsley Weber State University Preliminary Draft October 19, 2018 Abstract There has

More information

Discussion of Carlos Mulas Granados (IMF)

Discussion of Carlos Mulas Granados (IMF) Discussion of Carlos Mulas Granados (IMF) Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Growth: Firm level evidence of public support to R&D Werner Roeger EU Commission / DG ECFIN January 217 Prepared for: ECFIN

More information

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment. Paolo Pesenti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NBER and CEPR

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment. Paolo Pesenti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NBER and CEPR Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment Selim Elekdag, International Monetary Fund Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund Rene Lalonde, Bank of Canada Dirk Muir, Bank

More information

Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: the Role of Government Spending Persistence

Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: the Role of Government Spending Persistence Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: the Role of Government Spending Persistence Phuong V. Ngo a,, Jianjun Miao b a Department of Economics, Cleveland State University, 2121 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland,

More information

Inter Regional Effect of Public Debt: A Small DSGE Model of France, Germany and. Italy. Adeel Sultan Kadri Research Associate

Inter Regional Effect of Public Debt: A Small DSGE Model of France, Germany and. Italy. Adeel Sultan Kadri Research Associate Inter Regional Effect of Public Debt: A Small DSGE Model of France, Germany and Italy Adeel Sultan Kadri Research Associate adeelkadri@hotmail.com Faisal Sultan Qadri Lecturer, Govt. Premier College no.1

More information

James Cloyne Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes

James Cloyne Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes James Cloyne Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes Discussion paper Original citation: Cloyne, James (214) Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes.

More information

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PURCHASES MULTIPLIER ACTUALLY MUTIPLIED IN THE 2009 STIMULUS PACKAGE. John F. Cogan and John B. Taylor* Revised: December 2011

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PURCHASES MULTIPLIER ACTUALLY MUTIPLIED IN THE 2009 STIMULUS PACKAGE. John F. Cogan and John B. Taylor* Revised: December 2011 WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PURCHASES MULTIPLIER ACTUALLY MUTIPLIED IN THE 2009 STIMULUS PACKAGE John F. Cogan and John B. Taylor* Revised: December 2011 ABSTRACT Much of the recent economic debate about the impact

More information

Document de travail. Indebtedness and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary-union DSGE [ ]

Document de travail. Indebtedness and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary-union DSGE [ ] Hgh Lille 1 І Lille 2 І Lille 3 І Document de travail [213 33] Indebtedness and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary-union DSGE Cristina Badarau, Florence Huart and Ibrahima Sangaré Indebtedness and

More information

The macroeconomic effects of the European Monetary Union s fiscal consolidation from 2011 to 2013: A quantitative assessment.

The macroeconomic effects of the European Monetary Union s fiscal consolidation from 2011 to 2013: A quantitative assessment. The macroeconomic effects of the European Monetary Union s fiscal consolidation from to 3: A quantitative assessment. Ansgar Rannenberg Christian Schoder Jan Strasky July 4, 4 Abstract The impacts of fiscal

More information

WP/18/248 Macroeconomic Effects of Japan s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

WP/18/248 Macroeconomic Effects of Japan s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? WP/18/48 Macroeconomic Effects of Japan s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? by Mariana Colacelli and Emilio Fernandez Corugedo 18 International Monetary Fund WP/18/48 IMF Working Paper

More information

The New View on Fiscal Policy and its implications for the European Monetary Union

The New View on Fiscal Policy and its implications for the European Monetary Union The New View on Fiscal Policy and its implications for the European Monetary Union Atanas Pekanov 15. November 2018 Atanas Pekanov The New View on Fiscal Policy and its implications for the European Monetary

More information

Aboa Centre for Economics Discussion Paper No. 82 Turku 2012

Aboa Centre for Economics Discussion Paper No. 82 Turku 2012 Matti Viren Problems of fiscal consolidation and policy coordination Aboa Centre for Economics Discussion Paper No. 82 Turku 2012 The Aboa Centre for Economics is a joint initiative of the economics departments

More information

Gali Chapter 6 Sticky wages and prices

Gali Chapter 6 Sticky wages and prices Gali Chapter 6 Sticky wages and prices Up till now: o Wages taken as given by households and firms o Wages flexible so as to clear labor market o Marginal product of labor = disutility of labor (i.e. employment

More information

International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C.

International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. 2010 International Monetary Fund May 2010 IMF Country Report No. 10/145 Januaryxdfg 29, 2001 January 29, 2001 January 29, 2001 January 29, 2001 January 29, 2001 New Zealand: Selected Issues Paper This

More information

Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia

Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia Timothy Hills Federal Reserve Board Taisuke Nakata Federal Reserve Board First Draft: April 4 This Draft: August 4 Abstract The presence

More information

working papers S. Gomes P. Jacquinot M. Mohr M. Pisani May 2011

working papers S. Gomes P. Jacquinot M. Mohr M. Pisani May 2011 working papers 3 STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES: A MODEL-BASED ASSESSMENT S. Gomes P. Jacquinot M. Mohr M. Pisani May The analyses, opinions and findings of

More information

FISCAL MULTIPLIERS DSGE SIMULATION IN SLOVAK ECONOMY JURAJ ZEMAN WORKING

FISCAL MULTIPLIERS DSGE SIMULATION IN SLOVAK ECONOMY JURAJ ZEMAN WORKING FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN SLOVAK ECONOMY JURAJ ZEMAN WORKING PAPER National Bank of Slovakia www.nbs.sk Imricha Karvaša 1 813 25 Bratislava research@nbs.sk May 2016 ISSN 1337-5830 The views and results presented

More information

Exchange rate regimes, international linkages, and the macroeconomic performance of the New Member States

Exchange rate regimes, international linkages, and the macroeconomic performance of the New Member States 5 Exchange rate regimes, international linkages, and the macroeconomic performance of the New Member States Tamim Bayoumi, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton and Kanda Naknoi* 1 Introduction... 76 2 Some basic

More information

The Effects of Dollarization on Macroeconomic Stability

The Effects of Dollarization on Macroeconomic Stability The Effects of Dollarization on Macroeconomic Stability Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin Division of International Finance Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Washington, DC 2551 USA

More information

Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model

Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model 1 / 29 Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model Chiara Forlati 1 Luisa Lambertini 1 1 École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne CMSG November 6, 21 2 / 29 Motivation The global financial crisis started with an increase

More information

Macroeconomic Measurement and Business Cycles

Macroeconomic Measurement and Business Cycles Macroeconomic Measurement and Business Cycles Economics 4353 - Intermediate Macroeconomics Aaron Hedlund University of Missouri Fall 2015 Econ 4353 (University of Missouri) Measurement and Business Cycles

More information

An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model for the Euro Area and the US Economy

An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model for the Euro Area and the US Economy An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model for the Euro Area and the US Economy Discussion Monday June 5, 2006. Practical Issues in DSGE Modelling at Central Banks Stephen Murchison Presentation Outline 1. Paper

More information

Macroeconomic Measurement and Business Cycles

Macroeconomic Measurement and Business Cycles Macroeconomic Measurement and Business Cycles Economics 3307 - Intermediate Macroeconomics Aaron Hedlund Baylor University Fall 2013 Econ 3307 (Baylor University) Measurement and Business Cycles Fall 2013

More information

Analysis of DSGE Models. Lawrence Christiano

Analysis of DSGE Models. Lawrence Christiano Specification, Estimation and Analysis of DSGE Models Lawrence Christiano Overview A consensus model has emerged as a device for forecasting, analysis, and as a platform for additional analysis of financial

More information

Fiscal Consolidations in Currency Unions: Spending Cuts Vs. Tax Hikes

Fiscal Consolidations in Currency Unions: Spending Cuts Vs. Tax Hikes Fiscal Consolidations in Currency Unions: Spending Cuts Vs. Tax Hikes Christopher J. Erceg and Jesper Lindé Federal Reserve Board June, 2011 Erceg and Lindé (Federal Reserve Board) Fiscal Consolidations

More information

DUAL REGIME FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN CONVERGING ECONOMIES - A SIMPLIFIED STVAR APPROACH MICHAL BENČÍK WORKING PAPER 2/20144

DUAL REGIME FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN CONVERGING ECONOMIES - A SIMPLIFIED STVAR APPROACH MICHAL BENČÍK WORKING PAPER 2/20144 DUAL REGIME FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN CONVERGING ECONOMIES - A SIMPLIFIED STVAR APPROACH MICHAL BENČÍK WORKING PAPER 4 Národná banka Slovenska www.nbs.sk Imricha Karvaša 1 813 25 Bratislava research@nbs.sk

More information

Discussion of Capital Flows and the Adjustment to Common Shocks in a Two-Country Business Cycle Model Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets

Discussion of Capital Flows and the Adjustment to Common Shocks in a Two-Country Business Cycle Model Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets Discussion of Capital Flows and the Adjustment to Common Shocks in a Two-Country Business Cycle Model Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets Robert Kollmann, ULB and CEPR Bank of France, December 13, 2013 1 IMPORTANT

More information

Does The Fiscal Multiplier Exist?

Does The Fiscal Multiplier Exist? Does The Fiscal Multiplier Exist? Fiscal and Monetary Reactions, Credibility and Fiscal Multipliers in Hungary 1 Dániel Baksa 2, Szilárd Benk 3 and Zoltán M. Jakab 4 Preliminary and incomplete December

More information

Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model

Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model Lawrence J. Christiano Daisuke Ikeda SAIF, December 2014. Background Increasing interest in the following sorts of questions: What restrictions should be

More information

The government spending multiplier, uncertainty and sovereign risk

The government spending multiplier, uncertainty and sovereign risk The government spending multiplier, uncertainty and sovereign risk Felix Strobel February 15, 216 Abstract How does the presence of sovereign risk affect the dynamic consequences of government spending

More information

Macro from Micro: Estimates and Implications of Sector-Specific Technical Change. Susanto Basu Boston College and NBER

Macro from Micro: Estimates and Implications of Sector-Specific Technical Change. Susanto Basu Boston College and NBER Macro from Micro: Estimates and Implications of Sector-Specific Technical Change Susanto Basu Boston College and NBER CompNet Conference, Frankfurt, July 1, 2014 Why should central banks care about disaggregated

More information

Banks in The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model. by Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, and Dirk Muir

Banks in The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model. by Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, and Dirk Muir WP/5/5 Banks in The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model by Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, and Dirk Muir IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are

More information

The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand

The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand WP/10/128 The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand Werner Schule 2010 International Monetary Fund WP/10/128 IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department The

More information

Imbalances in the euro area and fiscal devaluation: a model-based analysis

Imbalances in the euro area and fiscal devaluation: a model-based analysis Imbalances in the euro area and fiscal devaluation: a model-based analysis S. Gomes Bank of Portugal P. Jacquinot European Central Bank May 4 M. Pisani Bank of Italy Abstract We assess to which extent

More information

Updated 10/30/13 Topic 4: Sticky Price Models of Money and Exchange Rate

Updated 10/30/13 Topic 4: Sticky Price Models of Money and Exchange Rate Updated 10/30/13 Topic 4: Sticky Price Models of Money and Exchange Rate Part 1: Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995 JPE) - We want to explain how monetary shocks affect real variables. The model here will do so

More information

Discussion of. An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model for the Euro Area and the US Economy. by Gregory de Walque, Frank Smets and Raf Wouters

Discussion of. An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model for the Euro Area and the US Economy. by Gregory de Walque, Frank Smets and Raf Wouters Discussion of An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model for the Euro Area and the US Economy by Gregory de Walque, Frank Smets and Raf Wouters Martin Ellison University of Warwick and CEPR Summary of the contribution

More information

Financial Factors in Business Cycles

Financial Factors in Business Cycles Financial Factors in Business Cycles Lawrence J. Christiano, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno 30 November 2007 The views expressed are those of the authors only What We Do? Integrate financial factors into

More information

Emerging Asia s Impact on Australian Growth: Some Insights From GEM

Emerging Asia s Impact on Australian Growth: Some Insights From GEM WP/1/ Emerging Asia s Impact on Australian Growth: Some Insights From GEM Ben Hunt 1 International Monetary Fund WP/1/ IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Emerging Asia s Impact on Australian Growth: Some

More information

UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO 1 st Finance Junior Workshop Program. Monetary Policy and Welfare Issues in the Economy with Shifting Trend Inflation

UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO 1 st Finance Junior Workshop Program. Monetary Policy and Welfare Issues in the Economy with Shifting Trend Inflation UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO 1 st Finance Junior Workshop Program Monetary Policy and Welfare Issues in the Economy with Shifting Trend Inflation Le Thanh Ha (GRIPS) (30 th March 2017) 1. Introduction Exercises

More information

Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime Dennis Bonam Jasper Lukkezen Structure 1. Theoretical predictions 2. Empirical evidence 3. Our model SOE NK DSGE model (Galì and

More information

The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus

The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus Douglas Laxton Research Department, IMF September 9 Basic Conclusions 1. No such thing as a simple scal multiplier! The response of the economy to discretionary scal

More information

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions A. Notarpietro S. Siviero Banca d Italia 1 Housing, Stability and the Macroeconomy: International Perspectives Dallas Fed

More information

Measurement. Chapter 2. Topics in Macroeconomics 2. Economics Division University of Southampton. February 8, 2008

Measurement. Chapter 2. Topics in Macroeconomics 2. Economics Division University of Southampton. February 8, 2008 Measurement Chapter 2 Topics in Macroeconomics 2 Economics Division University of Southampton February 8, 2008 Chapter 2 1/42 Topics in Macroeconomics Gross Domestic Product Introduction Gross Domestic

More information

Structural reforms and zero lower bound in a monetary union

Structural reforms and zero lower bound in a monetary union Structural and zero lower bound in a monetary union A. Gerali, A. Notarpietro, M. Pisani March 6, 4 Abstract We assess the short-run macroeconomic effects of to increase competition in the (nontradable)

More information

The Bank of England s forecasting platform

The Bank of England s forecasting platform 8 March 218 The forecast process: key features Each quarter, the Bank publishes an Inflation Report, including fan charts that depict the MPC s best collective judgement about the most likely paths for

More information

EUROPEAN ECONOMY. Structuralreformsandexternalrebalancing intheeuroarea:amodel-basedanalysis. EconomicPapers443 July2011.

EUROPEAN ECONOMY. Structuralreformsandexternalrebalancing intheeuroarea:amodel-basedanalysis. EconomicPapers443 July2011. EUROPEAN ECONOMY EconomicPapers443 July2011 Structuralreformsandexternalrebalancing intheeuroarea:amodel-basedanalysis LukasVogel EUROPEANCOMMISSION Economic Papers are written by the Staff of the Directorate-General

More information

Monetary Policy in Pakistan: The Role of Foreign Exchange and Credit Markets

Monetary Policy in Pakistan: The Role of Foreign Exchange and Credit Markets Monetary Policy in Pakistan: The Role of Foreign Exchange and Credit Markets Ehsan Choudhri Distinguished Research Professor Carleton University ehsan.choudhri@carleton.ca and Hamza Ali Malik Director,

More information

Measurement. Chapter 2. Topics in Macroeconomics 2. Economics Division University of Southampton. February 2009

Measurement. Chapter 2. Topics in Macroeconomics 2. Economics Division University of Southampton. February 2009 Measurement Chapter 2 Topics in Macroeconomics 2 Economics Division University of Southampton February 2009 Chapter 2 1/45 Topics in Macroeconomics Gross Domestic Product Introduction Gross Domestic Product

More information

The CNB Forecasting and Policy Analysis System in a historical perspective

The CNB Forecasting and Policy Analysis System in a historical perspective The CNB Forecasting and Policy Analysis System in a historical perspective 33nd International conference on Mathematical Methods in Economics September 9, 2015, Cheb 1 Table of Contents 1 IT regime and

More information

Fiscal Recipes for Growth in a High Debt Environment Preliminary and incomplete - Please do not circulate with authors permission

Fiscal Recipes for Growth in a High Debt Environment Preliminary and incomplete - Please do not circulate with authors permission Fiscal Recipes for Growth in a High Debt Environment Preliminary and incomplete - Please do not circulate with authors permission Matthieu Lemoine Banque de France Jesper Lindé IMF and CEPR First version:

More information

1 Business-Cycle Facts Around the World 1

1 Business-Cycle Facts Around the World 1 Contents Preface xvii 1 Business-Cycle Facts Around the World 1 1.1 Measuring Business Cycles 1 1.2 Business-Cycle Facts Around the World 4 1.3 Business Cycles in Poor, Emerging, and Rich Countries 7 1.4

More information

Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model. March 13-14, 2015, Macro Financial Modeling, NYU Stern.

Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model. March 13-14, 2015, Macro Financial Modeling, NYU Stern. Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model Lawrence J. Christiano Daisuke Ikeda Northwestern University Bank of Japan March 13-14, 2015, Macro Financial Modeling, NYU Stern. Background Wish to address

More information

Credit Risk and the Macroeconomy

Credit Risk and the Macroeconomy and the Macroeconomy Evidence From an Estimated Simon Gilchrist 1 Alberto Ortiz 2 Egon Zakrajšek 3 1 Boston University and NBER 2 Oberlin College 3 Federal Reserve Board XXVII Encuentro de Economistas

More information

Some Preliminary Macroeconomics of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Some Preliminary Macroeconomics of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Some Preliminary Macroeconomics of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Jason Furman Harvard Kennedy School and Peterson Institute for International Economics AFA Panel: Business and Capital Taxation Philadelphia,

More information

Transmission of fiscal policy shocks into Romania's economy

Transmission of fiscal policy shocks into Romania's economy THE BUCHAREST ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES Doctoral School of Finance and Banking Transmission of fiscal policy shocks into Romania's economy Supervisor: Prof. Moisă ALTĂR Author: Georgian Valentin ŞERBĂNOIU

More information

Assessing the Spillover Effects of Changes in Bank Capital Regulation Using BoC-GEM-Fin: A Non-Technical Description

Assessing the Spillover Effects of Changes in Bank Capital Regulation Using BoC-GEM-Fin: A Non-Technical Description Assessing the Spillover Effects of Changes in Bank Capital Regulation Using BoC-GEM-Fin: A Non-Technical Description Carlos de Resende, Ali Dib, and Nikita Perevalov International Economic Analysis Department

More information

Deflation, Credit Collapse and Great Depressions. Enrique G. Mendoza

Deflation, Credit Collapse and Great Depressions. Enrique G. Mendoza Deflation, Credit Collapse and Great Depressions Enrique G. Mendoza Main points In economies where agents are highly leveraged, deflation amplifies the real effects of credit crunches Credit frictions

More information

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach Gianluca Benigno 1 Andrew Foerster 2 Christopher Otrok 3 Alessandro Rebucci 4 1 London School of Economics and

More information

Discussion of. Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model By Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe

Discussion of. Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model By Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe Discussion of Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model By Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe Marc Giannoni Columbia University, CEPR and NBER International Research

More information

The design of the funding scheme of social security systems and its role in macroeconomic stabilization

The design of the funding scheme of social security systems and its role in macroeconomic stabilization The design of the funding scheme of social security systems and its role in macroeconomic stabilization Simon Voigts (work in progress) SFB 649 Motzen conference 214 Overview 1 Motivation and results 2

More information

Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates

Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates at the effective lower bound for interest rates Bank of England 12 March 2010 Plan Introduction The model The policy problem Results Summary & conclusions Plan Introduction Motivation Aims and scope The

More information

Topic 5: Sticky Price Models of Money and Exchange Rate

Topic 5: Sticky Price Models of Money and Exchange Rate Topic 5: Sticky Price Models of Money and Exchange Rate Part 1: Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995 JPE) - We want to explain how monetary shocks affect real variables. The model here will do so by introducing sticky

More information

Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier

Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier Michael Woodford Columbia University New Approaches to Fiscal Policy FRB Atlanta, January 8-9, 2010 Woodford (Columbia) Analytics of Multiplier

More information

Columbia University. Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series. Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier.

Columbia University. Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series. Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier. Columbia University Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier Michael Woodford Discussion Paper No.: 0910-09 Department of Economics Columbia

More information

Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Modelbased

Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Modelbased WP/13/269 Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Modelbased Approach Lorenzo Forni and Massimiliano Pisani 213 International Monetary Fund WP/13/269 IMF Working Paper Fiscal

More information

FISCAL DEVALUATION IN THE EURO AREA: A MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS

FISCAL DEVALUATION IN THE EURO AREA: A MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS FISCAL DEVALUATION IN THE EURO AREA: A MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS Working Papers 4 S. Gomes P. Jacquinot M. Pisani 4 4 FISCAL DEVALUATION IN THE EURO AREA: A MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS Working Papers 4 S. Gomes P.

More information

Macroeconomic effects of non-standard monetary policy measures in the euro area: the role of corporate bond purchases

Macroeconomic effects of non-standard monetary policy measures in the euro area: the role of corporate bond purchases Macroeconomic effects of non-standard monetary policy measures in the euro area: the role of corporate bond purchases A. Bartocci L. Burlon A. Notarpietro M. Pisani April 26, 217 Abstract This paper evaluates

More information

Microfoundations of DSGE Models: III Lecture

Microfoundations of DSGE Models: III Lecture Microfoundations of DSGE Models: III Lecture Barbara Annicchiarico BBLM del Dipartimento del Tesoro 2 Giugno 2. Annicchiarico (Università di Tor Vergata) (Institute) Microfoundations of DSGE Models 2 Giugno

More information

The Real Business Cycle Model

The Real Business Cycle Model The Real Business Cycle Model Economics 3307 - Intermediate Macroeconomics Aaron Hedlund Baylor University Fall 2013 Econ 3307 (Baylor University) The Real Business Cycle Model Fall 2013 1 / 23 Business

More information

HONG KONG INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY RESEARCH

HONG KONG INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY RESEARCH HONG KONG INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY RESEARCH INFLATION INERTIA THE ROLE OF MULTIPLE, INTERACTING PRICING RIGIDITIES Michael Kumhof HKIMR Working Paper No.18/2004 September 2004 Working Paper No.1/ 2000 Hong

More information

Chapter 2. The Measurement and Structure of the Canadian Economy. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada

Chapter 2. The Measurement and Structure of the Canadian Economy. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada Chapter 2 The Measurement and Structure of the Canadian Economy Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada National Income Accounting The national income accounts is an accounting framework used in measuring

More information

Monetary Economics. Lecture 11: monetary/fiscal interactions in the new Keynesian model, part one. Chris Edmond. 2nd Semester 2014

Monetary Economics. Lecture 11: monetary/fiscal interactions in the new Keynesian model, part one. Chris Edmond. 2nd Semester 2014 Monetary Economics Lecture 11: monetary/fiscal interactions in the new Keynesian model, part one Chris Edmond 2nd Semester 2014 1 This class Monetary/fiscal interactions in the new Keynesian model, part

More information

A DSGE model with unemployment and the role of institutions

A DSGE model with unemployment and the role of institutions A DSGE model with unemployment and the role of institutions Andrea Rollin* Abstract During the last years, after the outburst of the global financial crisis and the troubles with EU sovereign debts followed

More information

ECON MACROECONOMIC THEORY Instructor: Dr. Juergen Jung Towson University

ECON MACROECONOMIC THEORY Instructor: Dr. Juergen Jung Towson University ECON 310 - MACROECONOMIC THEORY Instructor: Dr. Juergen Jung Towson University Dr. Juergen Jung ECON 310 - Macroeconomic Theory Towson University 1 / 36 Disclaimer These lecture notes are customized for

More information

How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?

How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? Ethan Ilzetzki London School of Economics Enrique G. Mendoza University of Maryland and NBER Carlos A. Végh University of Maryland and NBER This Draft May 20, 2010

More information