Problems. the net marginal product of capital, MP'

Transcription

1 Problems 1. There are two effects of an increase in the depreciation rate. First, there is the direct effect, which implies that, given the marginal product of capital in period two, MP, the net marginal product of capital, MP' d, will decrease when the depreciation rate increases. For any given real interest rate, this effect lowers investment demand, and so the investment demand schedule shifts to the left. This direct effect is the result of the fact that a higher depreciation rate implies that the scrap value of the capital the firm invests in will be lower at the end of period two. In addition to this direct effect, there is also an indirect effect of the depreciation rate on investment. Since ' = (1 d) + I, given the initial capital stock,, the quantity of capital in period two will be smaller, for any I, if the depreciation rate is higher. Therefore, when d increases, the investment schedule shifts to the right. The direct and indirect effects work in opposite directions, and so, given the real rate of interest, investment may either rise or fall with an increase in the depreciation rate. 2. The problem supplies the following production function, where future output only depends on the level of second-period capital, in this case the number of trees. Future Trees Future Output (a) The production function is depicted below.

2 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment 85 (b) The marginal product of capital schedule is computed from the previous table. In table form: Future Trees Future Output MP These data are plotted in the figure below.

3 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment 86 (c) Tom s first-year profits are equal to π = Y I. The present value of second-year profits is equal Y' (1 d ) ' Y' (1 d ) ' to π' = =. These calculations are given in the column V, below. (1 + r) 2 (d) The net marginal product of capital is equal to MP d = MP 0.1. These calculations are also included in the table below. Future Trees Future Output Required I V MP d (e) Tom s optimal level of V is equal to To earn this amount of profit, Tom needs to plant 4 new trees. Note that at I = 4, MP' d = 1.7 > r = 1.0. Planting the 4th tree is therefore profitable. However, at I = 4, MP' d = 0.9 < r = 1.0. Planting the 5th tree is not profitable. The maximum V is therefore attained at the last tree for which MP' d > r. 3. The costs of the output subsidy and the investment subsidy would each require an increase in other (lump-sum) taxes to satisfy the government budget constraint with unchanged government purchases. This increase in taxes reduces consumer wealth and so labor supply shifts to the right and output supply also shifts to the right. This effect tends to increase output and decrease the real interest rate. In the case of the output subsidy, the decrease in the real interest rate increases both consumption spending and investment spending to match the increase in output. In the case of the subsidy to investment, there is also a shift to the right in the output demand curve. This effect provides an additional increase in output. Also the increase in the real interest rate (or the smaller-sized decrease in the real interest rate) reduces consumption spending so that more of the increase in output goes to investment spending and less goes to consumption spending. Therefore, the investment subsidy is likely to be more effective in increasing investment. 4. The new second-period profits of the firm are now π = Y w N + (1 d)p. (a) The new marginal benefit from investment is now MB(I) = (MP + (1 d)p )/(1 + r) As the marginal cost from investment remains at one, the new investment rule is then MP = (1 + r) (1 d)p (b) With an increase in p, the marginal product of future capital needs to be reduced, thus more future capital is needed and investment rises. Indeed, as the liquidation value of capital goes up, you want to invest more in capital. Thus investment is positively correlated with stock prices.

4 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment Slope of the output demand curve. (a) A reduction in the real interest rate increases consumption and investment spending. This is the primary reason for the downward slope of the output demand curve. However, as output rises, there is a further increase in consumption spending according to the size of the marginal propensity to consume. The larger the marginal propensity to consume, the flatter is the aggregate demand curve. (b) The intertemporal substitution effect on consumption is one of the primary reasons why demand rises at lower interest rates. The larger the sensitivity of consumption spending to the real rate of interest, the flatter is the output demand curve. (c) The responsiveness of investment demand to the real rate of interest is one of the primary reasons why demand rises at lower interest rates. The larger the responsiveness of investment demand to the real rate of interest, the flatter is the output demand curve. 6. Slope of the output supply curve. (a) The figure below depicts the effect of an increase in labor supply, due to an increase in the real interest rate, on the equilibrium level of employment. The diagram shows two alternate labor demand curves with differing slopes. Note that the equilibrium level of employment increases more when the marginal product of labor declines at a slower rate with increases in the level of employment. Therefore, when the marginal product of labor declines at a faster rate as the quantity of labor used in production increases, there is a smaller increase in employment and therefore a smaller increase in output supply. The output supply curve is steeper in this case. (b) When the substitution effect of an increase in the real rate of interest decreases, there is a smaller effect on equilibrium employment of an increase in the real interest rate. Therefore there is a smaller increase in output supply. The output supply curve is steeper in this case.

5 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment A future increase in government spending generates a negative income effect. Therefore, current-period consumption declines and current-period labor supply increases. The increase in current-period labor supply shifts the output supply curve to the right. The real interest rate falls, and the levels of employment and output likely increase. The results are summarized in the figures below. The equilibrium level of output increases from Y * to Y **, and the level of employment rises from N * to N **. The equilibrium rate of interest unambiguously declines. This decline in the real rate of interest is responsible for the second, leftward shift in the labor supply curve. If, on net, employment and output increase, then it must be the case that the real wage falls. (If, on the other hand, output falls on net, then employment must fall and the real wage must rise.) The reduction in the real interest rate assures us that investment increases. The income effect tends to lower consumption, while the decline in the real rate of interest tends to increase consumption. Most likely, consumption falls, although consumption may also increase.

6 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment Labor supply shifts to the right, so output supply also shifts to the right. Consumption demand also increases, so the output demand curve must also shift to the right. Output must increase although the real rate of interest may rise or fall. In light of the increase in output, equilibrium employment must increase. A higher level of employment, in the absence of a shift in the labor demand curve, assures us that the real wage rate must also fall. Investment rises if the real rate of interest declines, and investment falls if the real rate of interest increases. Because output has increased, consumption will rise as long as investment remains the same or declines. Consumption falls only in the case of a decline in the rate of interest of sufficient size to increase investment by more than the increase in output. (a) To summarize: Y, N, w, r?, I?, C?, but most likely increases. (b) As one possibility, at low levels of nutrition, it may be infeasible for the consumer to work very much (a very high MRS lc, ). In this case, an increase in nutrition would make the consumer more willing (and able) to work more and consume more. One could also imagine some change in the technology of using leisure that is more goods intensive. In this case the value of leisure is low without a lot of consumption goods. 9. A temporary increase in z increases output and employment, raises the real wage, and lowers the real rate of interest. Consumption and investment both increase. An increase in future total factor productivity, z, shifts the current-period output demand curve to the right. Current output and employment increase, and the real interest rate increases. Since the current-period labor demand curve does not shift, the shift in labor supply due to the lower real interest rate causes the real wage rate to decline. A permanent increase in total factor productivity simply combines the effects of the temporary and permanent changes in z. Current output and employment unambiguously increase. The real wage rate may either rise or fall. The real interest rate may either rise or fall. As long as the direct effect of the increase in MP' outweighs any indirect effect due to a possible increase in the real interest rate, then investment will increase. As long as the direct effects of the increases in current and future income dominate any indirect effect of a possible rise in the real interest rate, then consumption will also increase. 10. The increase in z shifts the output demand curve to the right, but has no effect on the output supply curve. The increase in shifts the output demand curve to the left, and shifts the output supply curve to the right. The combined effects shift the output supply curve to the right. The shift in the output demand curve is uncertain. An increase in the current capital stock lowers investment spending. An increase in future total factor productivity increases investment spending. As one possibility, suppose that the effect of the prospective increase in total factor productivity is that investment increases. In this case, both the output supply curve and the output demand curve shift to the right. Output rises unambiguously, but the effect on the real interest rate is uncertain. If a lack of capital were the only reason for low output in poor countries, then we would expect that the real interest rates in poor countries would be higher than the real interest rates in rich countries. This is not the case. Alternatively, if poor countries are poor both because they have less capital and because they have worse prospects for future investment, then this explanation of the difference between poor and rich countries need not be in conflict with observed differences in real interest rates.

7 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment A temporary increase in the price of energy is best modeled as a reduction in current-period total factor productivity. Such a disturbance shifts output supply to the left. Therefore, output falls and the real interest rate increases. In question 3, above, we showed that a larger value for the marginal propensity to consume implied a flatter output demand curve. In the figure below, we show the shift in output supply with two alternative output demand curves. When the marginal propensity to consume is high, the output demand curve is flat and the reduction in z results in a large reduction in output and a small increase in the real interest rate. When the marginal propensity to consume is smaller, there is a smaller reduction in output, and a larger increase in the real interest rate.

8 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment A hurricane destroys a significant amount of capital. This disturbance may be analyzed as an exogenous decrease in the stock of capital. The production function shifts downward. Labor demand shifts to the left. These effects result in a leftward shift in the goods supply curve. The loss in capital also increases the expected marginal product of capital, and so the goods demand curve shifts to the right. The figures below depict the case in which equilibrium output decreases. (a) The analysis of the effects of the hurricane suggests that it is reasonable to expect a decrease in national income. However, because the model is based upon maximizing principles, it is likely that the reduction in national income represents an optimal response to the reduction in the capital stock. There is therefore no presumption that policy will improve the situation.

9 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment 92 (b) An appropriate-sized increase in government spending can restore the economy to the original * level of output, Y. 1 A temporary increase in government spending generates a negative wealth effect shifting the labor supply curve to the right. The temporary increase in government spending also shifts the output demand curve to the right. The figure below depicts a case in which the increase in government spending exactly returns the economy to the original level of output. Output is unchanged. The real interest rate increases. Employment must increase. In order to produce the same amount of output an increase in employment is needed to substitute for the lost capital. (c) A more sensible rationale for an increase in government spending would be based upon needs to replace government-provided capital. That is, the government might want to increase spending to replace roads, sewer systems, and other infrastructure. 13. A short war is best modeled as a temporary increase in government spending. Such a disturbance shifts the output demand curve to the right because the increase in current-period government spending will be larger than the reduction in consumption demand due to the decline in consumers lifetime wealth. The output supply curve also shifts to the right because of the reduction in consumers lifetime wealth. Output and employment unambiguously increase. Because the increase in government spending is only temporary, the effect on lifetime wealth is likely to be small, so the demand curve shifts farther than the supply curve. Therefore, the interest rate most likely increases.

10 Chapter 9 A Real Intertemporal Model with Investment 93 In order to more clearly see how the size of the intertemporal substitution effect on consumption comes into play, let us assume that the lifetime wealth effect is small enough to be ignored. In this case we need only be concerned with the shift in output demand and not the shift in output supply. The flatter output demand curves correspond to the case in which the interest rate effect on consumption is stronger. As the figure below depicts, the increase in output in this case is smaller. The intuition is as follows. When consumption is very sensitive to changes in the interest rate, it takes a smaller increase in the interest rate to crowd out demand to fit the increased G. With a smaller increase in the real interest rate, there is a smaller shift in labor supply, and so there is a smaller increase in employment and output.