Chapter 25. Aggregate Demand and Supply Analysis

Transcription

1 Chapter 25 Aggregate Demand and Supply Analysis

2 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-2

3 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-3

4 Aggregate Demand and Supply How the aggregate output and price are determined. How they are affected by the policies Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-4

5 Aggregate Demand Downward sloping Monetarist: Money supply (monetary policy) is the most effective tool to shift the aggregate demand function. Keynesian view: Government spending and/or taxes (fiscal policy) is the most effective tool Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-5

6 Monetarist View of AD P Y 2000 V = = = 2 M 1000 Modern Quantity Theory of Money M V = P Y Implication: M determines P Y if V unrelated to M Deriving AD Curve M = 1000, V = 2 P Y = 2000 Point A: P = 2 Y = 1000 PY = Point B: P = 1 Y = 2000 PY = Point C: P =.5 Y = 4000 PY = Conclusion: P Y, downward sloping AD Shift in AD Curve M : P Y, so at given P, Y AD shifts right 25-6

7 The AD Curve 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-7

8 Keynesian View of AD Y ad = C + I + G + NX Downward Sloping AD P, M/P, i, I, NX, Y ad, Y Shift in AD M, M/P, i, I, NX, Y ad, Y AD shifts right C or G or T or NX : Y ad, Y AD shifts right Complete Crowding Out G, i C, I, NX C + I + G + NX = Y ad unchanged Partial crowding out: private spending down, but not fully offsetting G 25-8

9 Aggregate Demand AD is downward sloping. Monetarist: Monetary policy is the most effect way to shift aggregate demand. Keynesian: Fiscal policy is the most effect way to shift aggregate demand Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-9

10 Aggregate Supply in Short Run Upward slope of AS In short-run production costs fixed P, profits, Y produced Shift in AS Production costs : At given P, profits, Y AS shifts left 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-10

11 Equilibrium in Short Run Equilibrium: AD = AS If P > P*, AS > AD P to P* If P < P*, AS < AD P to P* 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-11

12 Equilibrium in Long Run Panel (a): Y > Y n Wages : at given P, profits, Y produced AS shifts in until Y = Y n at long-run AS Panel (b): Y < Y n Wages : at given P, profits, Y produced AS shifts out until Y = Y n at long-run AS Activist sees movement to longrun AS (self-correcting mechanism) as slow; nonactivist sees as fast 25-12

13 Summary: Factors that Shift AD 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-13

14 Effect of Shift in AD on Y 1. AD shifts right: Y P to point 1' 2. Y > Y n : wages, AS shifts in until reach point 2, where Y = Y n Conclusion: AD shifts right, Y in short run only; in long run only P 25-14

15 Summary: Factors that Shift AS 25-15

16 Effect of Shift in AS on Y 1. Negative supply shock: AS shifts in, Y P to point 2 2. Y < Y n : wages, AS shifts out until return to point 1 Conclusion: AS shifts in, Y P in short run, but in long run Y and P are unchanged 25-16

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18 Negative Supply Shocks: and Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-18

19 Positive Supply Shocks Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-19

20 What can monetary policy do? The self-correcting mechanism is slow. So exogenous shocks may keep the economy out of its long-run trend for prolonged periods. We can use the policy instrument to restore long-run output by shifting the aggregate demand Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-20

21 Conduct of Monetary Policy Choice of monetary instrument Monetary Aggregates, or Interest Rate Can you choose both? No! After you choose one, the other one is automatically determined by the market. Which monetary instrument is currently used by the central banks? Interest rate 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-21

22 How to set the interest rate? Taylor rule (John Taylor, Stanford) i t =i+α(π t - π)+β(y t -y) i t interest rate of time t i targeted long-run interest rate π t inflation rate of time t π targeted long-run inflation rate y t output (GDP) of time t y targeted long-run output (GDP) 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-22

23 How well the Taylor rule captures the monetary policy in U.S.? 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-23

24 How Taylor rule is followed in reality Countries explicitly follow Taylor rule Australia, New Zealand, U.K. U.S. Greenspan: No commitment to any monetary rule. Bernanke: Expected to follow the rule more explicitly Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-24

25 Debates on the Taylor Rule How much should the interest rate react to inflation and output? What are the optimal values for α and β in the Taylor rule? What should be included in the Taylor rule? Current inflation rate, lagged inflation rate or expected inflation rate? Is output stabilization necessary? Should the exchange rate be included in an open economy? Should the central bank adjust interest rate gradually? If the fed wants to increase interest rate by 1 percentage point, should it increase the interest rate by 25 basis points each time during the next 4 months or increase the interest rate by 1 percent immediately Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 25-25

26 Shifts in Long-Run Supply Y n grows over time, but is shown as fixed in AD/AS diagram Real Business Cycle Theory 1. Y n fluctuates a lot due to aggregate supply (real) shocks 2. Shifts in AD small 3. Conclusion: Business cycles due to real shocks 4. Supports nonactivism Hysteresis 1. AD shifts in, natural rate of unemployment, Y n shifts in 2. Unemployment stays high 3. Supports activism 25-26