NBC4/MaristPolMarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters. April2016

Transcription

1 NBC4/MaristPolMarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters April2016

2 How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC4/Marist Maryland Poll of 2,913 Adults This survey of 2,913 adults was conducted April 5 th through April 9 th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC4. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Maryland were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Maryland from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±1.8 percentage points. There are 2,563 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±1.9 percentage points. Among registered voters, 1,151 had a phone match in the voter file and 1,412 did not. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points and ±2.6 percentage points, respectively. There are 653 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in Maryland includes all registered Republicans. There are 1,357 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in Maryland includes all registered Democrats. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points and ±2.7 percentage points, respectively. There are 368 likely Republican primary voters and 775 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Maryland Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±5.1 percentage points and ±3.5 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland April

3 Maryland Adults Maryland Registered Voters Maryland Potential Republican Electorate Maryland Likely Republican Primary Voters Maryland Potential Democratic Electorate Maryland Likely Democratic Primary Voters Party Registration Party Identification Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Region Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Maryland Voter Registration List Interview Type Nature of the Sample - Maryland Maryland Adults Maryland Registered Voters Col % Col % 100% 8 100% Democrat n/a 5 Republican n/a 2 Independent n/a Other n/a 0% Democrat n/a 4 Republican n/a 2 Independent n/a Other n/a Very liberal n/a 9% Liberal n/a 2 n/a 3 Conservative n/a 2 Very conservative n/a n/a 1 Men 4 4 Women 5 5 Under or older 5 59% 18 to to to or older 2 White 5 5 African American 2 2 Latino Other East 2 2 Baltimore City and County 2 2 DC Suburbs 3 3 Central/West 1 1 Less than $50,000 3 $50,000 or more 6 69% Not college graduate 5 50% College graduate 4 50% Married 49% 5 Not married 5 49% Yes No Practice a Religion 5 5 Does not Practice a Religion 49% 49% Yes 1 No 8 8 Match n/a 4 No Match n/a 5 Landline 5 5 Cell Phone 4 4 NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland Adults. Interviews conducted April 5th through April 9th, 2016, n=2913 MOE +/- 1.8 percentage points. Maryland Registered Voters: n=2563 MOE +/- 1.9 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland April

4 Nature of the Sample - Maryland Maryland Potential Republican Electorate Maryland Likely Republican Primary Voters Maryland Potential Republican Electorate Maryland Likely Republican Primary Voters Col % Col % 100% 5 100% Party Registration Republican 100% 100% Party Identification Past Participation Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Region Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Maryland Voter Registration List Interview Type Democrat Republican 7 7 Independent 2 2 Other Yes 8 89% No 1 1 Very liberal Liberal 3 Conservative 4 4 Very conservative 20% 3 Men 5 5 Women 4 4 Under or older to to 44 20% 45 to or older 3 White 8 8 African American Latino Other East 4 4 Baltimore City and County 1 1 DC Suburbs 1 Central/West 2 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 7 7 Not college graduate 50% 4 College graduate 50% 5 Married 6 6 Not married Yes 3 No Practice a Religion 59% 6 Does not Practice a Religion 4 Yes 20% No 8 80% Match 50% 5 No Match 50% 4 Landline 5 60% Cell Phone 4 NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted April 5th through April 9th, 2016, n=653 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points. Maryland Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=368 MOE +/- 5.1 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland April

5 DonaldTrump TedCruz JohnKasich Other Undecided LikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters MarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters IntensityofSupport Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Veryconservative Conservative Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Colegegraduate Notcolegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion U.S.MilitaryVeteran Yes No StateVoterRegistrationList Match NoMatch InterviewType Landline CelPhone % % 2 49% % 2 0% % % Republicanpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidateorvotedabsentee NBC4/MaristPolMarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedApril5ththroughApril9th,2016,n=368MOE+/-5.1percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto100% duetorounding. NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland April

6 Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently Unsure LikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters MarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters PrimarySupport DonaldTrump TedCruz JohnKasich PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Colegegraduate Notcolegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion InterviewType Landline CelPhone 5 0% 2 7 9% % % % % % 9% % Wouldyousayyoustronglysupport<candidate>,somewhatsupport<candidate>,ordoyouthinkyoumightvotediferentlyon PrimaryDay? NBC4/MaristPolMarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVotersincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedApril5ththroughApril9th,2016n=323MOE+/-5.5percentage points.totalsmaynotaddto100% duetorounding. NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland April

7 JohnKasich TedCruz DonaldTrump Other Undecided LikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters MarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters PrimarySupport DonaldTrump TedCruz JohnKasich PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Colegegraduate Notcolegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion InterviewType Landline CelPhone 1 60% % % Whoisyoursecondchoiceforthe2016Republicanpresidentialprimary[includingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtoward acandidate]? NBC4/MaristPolMarylandMarylandLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedApril5ththroughApril9th,2016,n=320MOE+/-5.5percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto100% duetorounding. NBC4/Marist Poll Maryland April