DAS EU-WEISSBUCH AUF DEM PRÜFSTAND

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1 DAS EU-WEISSBUCH AUF DEM PRÜFSTAND WIE KOMMEN WIR ZU ANGEMESSENEN, SICHEREN UND NACHHALTIGEN RENTEN? Brüssel, 24. April 2012 Josef Wöss / Erik Türk (AK Wien)

2 THEMEN DEMOGRAPHISCHER WANDEL ABHÄNGIGKEITSQUOTEN BEDEUTUNG DES ARBEITSMARKTES EU-WEISSBUCH ZU PENSIONEN

3 DEMOGRAPHISCHER WANDEL Demographische Abhängigkeitsquoten (EU-27) 2010 (EU-27) demographic dependency ratio 2050 (EU-27) demographic dependency ratio d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to Source: AK-Wien / Dependency Ratio Calculator (data: europop 10

4 DEMOGRAPHISCHE VS. ÖKONOMISCHE ABHÄNGIGKEIT 2010 (EU-27) 2010 (EU-27) age structure 2010 (EU-27) economic status of the people employment rate: 64 % (15-64) d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to e_dr = economic dependency ratio: pensioners (old-age, early retirement, disability) and unemployed relative to people in employment people in employment pensioners and unemployed neutral - housewifes/housemen etc. (right picture) Source: AK-Wien, Dependency Ratio Calculator (database: Eurostat europop 10 / Labour Force Suvey 2011; EU-Commission Ageing Report 2009; own calculations)

5 WIE GEHT S WEITER? STANDARD -SCENARIO Vergleich (EU-27) 2010 economic status of the people employment rate: 64 % (15-64) Standard -Scenario economic status of the people employment rate: 70 % (15-64) d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to e_dr = economic dependency ratio: pensioners (old-age, early retirement, disability) and unemployed relative to people in employment people in employment pensioners and unemployed neutral - housewifes/housemen etc. Source: AK-Wien, Dependency Ratio Calculator (database: Eurostat europop 10 / Labour Force Suvey 2011; EU-Commission Ageing Report 2009; own calculations)

6 WIE GEHT S WEITER? EU-2020plus -SCENARIO Vergleich (EU-27) 2010 economic status of the people employment rate: 64 % (15-64) EU Scenario; economic status of the people employment rate: 75 % (15-64) d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to e_dr = economic dependency ratio: pensioners (old-age, early retirement, disability) and unemployed relative to people in employment people in employment pensioners and unemployed neutral - housewifes/housemen etc. Source: AK-Wien, Dependency Ratio Calculator (database: Eurostat europop 10 / Labour Force Suvey 2011; EU-Commission Ageing Report 2009; own calculations)

7 ABHÄNGIGKEITSQUOTEN IM VERGLEICH ÄNDERUNG / EU demographic dependency ratio % % + 20% economic dependency ratio ( Standard -Scenario) economic dependency ratio ( EU Scenario) Source: AK-Wien, Dependency Ratio Calculator

8 ABHÄNGIGKEITSQUOTEN FEHLER AUS VERSEHEN? THE ECONOMIST, 9. April 2011 Text: the key figure is the ratio of workers to pensioners, known as the support (or dependency) ratio. This is deteriorating steadily in all rich countries (see chart). Charts: Support ratio: The number of people of working age compared with the number of people beyond retirement age [65+ relative to 20-64]

9 BESCHÄFTIGUNGSPOTENZIAL EU-27 (2007) Population 15-64: 329 mio (EU-Commission, Demography Report 2008)

10 EU-WEISSBUCH ZENTRALE HERAUSFORDERUNGEN ALTERUNG DER BEVÖLKERUNG - Longevity growth and the transition into retirement of the baby-boomers will have far-reaching economic and budgetary consequencies. reducing the economic growth potential and exercising pressure on public finances FINANZ- UND WIRTSCHAFTSKRISE / RÜCKGANG DER BESCHÄFTIGUNG - Pay-as-you-go pension schemes are affected by falling employment, and hence lower pension contributions - Funded schemes are affected by falling asset values and reduced returns

11 EU-WEISSBUCH NEUE ANALYSEN DIE ALTERSSTRUKTUR EINER GESELLSCHAFT ALLEIN SAGT WENIG AUS. VIEL WICHTIGER ALS DEMOGRAPHISCHE SIND ÖKONOMISCHE ABHÄNGIGKEITSQUOTEN - the real issue is the economic dependency ratio, defined as the unemployed and pensioners as a percentage of the employed ERFORDERLICH IST EINE STEIGERUNG DER BESCHÄFTIGUNGS- QUOTEN IN ALLEN ALTERSGRUPPEN - raising employment rates. not just in higher age-groups, but also for groups with lower employment rates such as women, migrants and youths

12 EU-WEISSBUCH ALTE EMPFEHLUNGEN KOPPELUNG DES PENSIONSALTERS AN DIE STEIGENDE LEBENSERWARTUNG - to stabilise the balance between working years and years in retirement AUSBAU DER PRIVATEN ZUSATZALTERSVORSORGE - complimentary retirement savings have to play a greater role