Policy on NZS age of eligibility: what longevity data is needed? Alison O Connell PANZ Auckland, November 2011
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1 Policy on NZS age of eligibility: what longevity data is needed? Alison O Connell PANZ Auckland, November 2011 Presentation Alison O Connell 2011
2 This presentation Age of eligibility debate Problems with most common indicator Misinterpretation Risk of lifespan underestimation Demography research developments Proposed solutions
3 RRIP 2010 proposal for NZS eligibility age Increase from 65 years by two months a year from 2020, to reach 67 years in Concern is "Long-term affordability of the system...cost increases will be driven by demographic developments over the coming decades : a large cohort of baby boomers about to qualify the continuing upward trend in life expectancy Retirement Commissioner (2010) Review of Retirement Income Policy
4 In the UK, the planned increase in eligibility age was considered insufficient "The Pensions Act 2007 legislated for the State Pension age..to rise for men and women to 66 by 2026, 67 by 2036, and 68 by Even since this timetable was set, official projections for average [cohort] life expectancy at 65 in 2026 have gone up an extra 1.5 years for men, and 1.6 years for women DWP 2010 A sustainable State Pension: when the State Pension age will increase to 66 p. 9 (UK)
5 and the timetable accelerated In the face of increased life expectancy, the Government has decided to bring forward the increase *to age 66 by men in 2020 will still spend nearly 32 per cent of their adult life in receipt of state pensions on average well above the ratio in Calculated using cohort life expectancies DWP 2010 A sustainable State Pension: when the State Pension age will increase to 66 pp. 5 and 43 (UK) UPDATE: Given the ongoing increases in life expectancy beyond 2026 On 29 November 2011, the UK government announced plans to accelerate the timetable for the increase of State Pension age to 67 by eight years. The increase will now take place between 2026 and HM Treasury 2011 Autumn Statement 2011 p. 23 (UK)
6 Mortality rates used to calculate period and cohort measures Calendar year Age q 0, 1981 q 0, 1982 q 0, 1983 q 0, 1984 q 0, 2079 q 0, 2080 q 0, q 1, 1981 q 1, 1982 q 1, 1983 q 1, 1984 q 1, 2079 q 1, 2080 q 1, q 2, 1981 q 2, 1982 q 2, 1983 q 2, 1984 q 2, 2079 q 2, 2080 q 2, q 3, 1981 q 3, 1982 q 3, 1983 q 3, 1984 q 3, 2079 q 3, 2080 q 3, q 98, 1981 q 98, 1982 q 98, 1983 q 98, 1984 q 98, 2079 q 98, 2080 q 98, q 99, 1981 q 99, 1982 q 99, 1983 q 99, 1984 q 99, 2079 q 99, 2080 q 99, q 100, 1981 q 100, 1982 q 100, 1983 q 100, 1984 q 100, 2079 q 100, 2080 q 100, 2081 Period 1981 Cohort born 1981
7 Misuse of period life expectancy for expected lifespan (1) "Life expectancy is an estimate of how long a resident can expect to live from birth. New Zealand Institute 2010 "Figures released by Statistics New Zealand this week show that, on average, a girl born between 2005 and 2007 will live 82.2 years. NZ Herald 2008
8 Misuse of period life expectancy for expected lifespan (2) "When Beveridge brought in the state pension, kicking in for men at the age of 65, the male life expectancy was 64. In other words, the average man died before he could claim any state pension at all. Guardian 2010 "In 2006, life expectancy in the United States at age 50 was 32.6 for white women and 30.2 for black women; white men at age 50 could expect to live 29.0 years on average and black men 25.2 years. US academic paper 2010
9 Period life expectancy understates lifespans At birth At age 65 Cohort born 2010 Period 2010 Gap Cohort age 65 in 2010 Period 2010 Gap Male Female Source: Statistics New Zealand life expectancy indicators for total population. Medium estimate projection scenario, 2009-based.
10 Estimated percentage of adult New Zealanders with SLS under- or overestimating compared to life table x+e x 44.5% 46.8% 25.6% 26.0% 29.9% 27.3% 55.8% 65.2% 24.4% 19.9% 19.8% 14.9% Underestimate Congruent Overestimate Period High Medium Low Cohort table, by mortality projection Author analysis of subjective lifespans (SLS) from ANZ-Retirement Commission Financial Knowledge Survey 2009 and life tables from Statistics New Zealand. Period table based projection for cohort tables.
11 NZ cohort life expectancy shows two-year increase has lifespan improvement rationale Cohort e 65, by age in Medium projection Male Female Low mortality projection Male Female Increase in e 65 for a 45-year-old compared to a 65-year-old ~2 years ~3 years Source: Figures obtained from Statistics New Zealand, indicators for total population. Consistent with 2009-based projections.
12 Monthly savings required for a male aged 50 to achieve standard retirement goal at age 65 using different lifespan indicators $385 $214 if retire at 67 $455 0 Period LE at 65 Medium Mortality cohort LE at 65 Low Mortality cohort LE at 65 Total Source: Author s calculations using Sorted calculator and life expectancy indicators from Statistics New Zealand. Period table based projection for cohort tables.
13 Best practice cohort life expectancy trend: linear and steep Reproduced from Shkolnikov et al (2011) Steep Increase in Best-Practice Cohort Life Expectancy Population and Development Review 37(3).
14 Period life expectancy is useful as a summary of all-ages mortality in a time period, but it: Is not the lifespan anyone should expect (especially life expectancy at birth) May contribute to longevity live too long risk for individuals May contribute to retire too early risk for individuals Hides pace of improvement in lifespans May overstate the gap in average lifespans between groups and favour mortality compression over mortality shifting
15 Public debate about increasing lifespans using cohort indicators may help: To give individuals an understanding of their own potential lifespan To reduce individuals longevity risk and increase understanding of rationale for retiring later Policymakers to understand true pace of lifespan trends in New Zealand Policymakers to understand uncertainty in forecasting
16 UK publishes more data on long-term projected cohort life expectancy than NZ Remaining years of life at age 65 by year of reaching age 65 Medium mortality assumptions
17 Example: UK Reproduced from Cohort Estimates of Life Expectancy at Age 65 published April 2011 by the Department for Work and Pensions.
18 Summary: best practice indicators of individual lifespan, 2 scenarios Cohort life expectancy at each age in retirement calculators Cohort life expectancy at NZS age of eligibility for future years of reaching it, for different generations Proportion of adult life in education, in work, retired, for different generations
19 Longevity Bulletin published by the Actuarial Profession in the UK provides a regular overview of research into longevity trends and explains actuarial perspectives on population longevity. See recent issues for more on life expectancy indicators.
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