When did the recession start?

Transcription

1 Vol. 4, Issue 2 IN the Spotlight: Peaks to Lows: Mapping the Recession When did the recession start? It all depends on where you were. As measured by seasonally adjusted data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the recession first began in Iowa with a decline in employment in April of Next, five states, including Indiana, saw employment drop in June Eventually, all 50 states and the District of Columbia experienced a decline in employment. For Alaska and Oklahoma, that decline appeared only in the preliminary data for December Hence, when revised, those data may show no decline at all for those states. Figure 1 shows in which halfyear period each state peaked. The progress of the recession is shown in Figure 2. Here, the peak is the month before the decline in employment began and the low is the month in which the subsequent minimum level was recorded. In Figure 1, it is evident that the recession (the decline in employment from the recorded peaks) progresses in an irregular fashion while the beginning of recovery from the lows is a smooth and accelerating process. Whether or not this is meaningful is unknown. The deepest decline in employment was 182,800 jobs in Michigan, attained in December Indiana's greatest spread between the peak and the low employment of the recession was (continued on page 2) INSIDE this issue: IN THE SPOTLIGHT 1 Peaks to Lows: Mapping the Recession IN THE NEWS 4 Indiana Shows Marked Improvement in Adults with College Degrees IN BUSINESS 5 Indiana s Ports IN THE DETAILS 6 Keeping Up with the Hamiltons IN LOCAL AREAS 9 December s Unemployment Snapshot Figure 1: Employment Peaks, 2000 to 2002 All states experienced a decline in employment 2000: 1st Half (10 states) 2000: 2nd Half (9 states) 2001: 1st Half (16 states) 2001: 2nd Half (4 states) 2002: 1st Half (7 states) 2002: 2nd Half (5 states) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics IN THE WORKFORCE 10 Commerce Region 8: East Central Indiana IN CLOSING 12 News Behind the Numbers... Numbers Behind the News Indiana s Unemployment Rate January 2003: 4.8 Historic High November 1982: 12.7 Historic Low September 2000: 2.8 (seasonally adjusted)

2 IN THE SPOTLIGHT IN the Spotlight (continued from page 1) 122,300 jobs (seventh worst in the nation) reached in June Indiana has the undesirable distinction of having the steepest decline, losing 4.1 percent of its jobs between the May 2000 peak and that June 2002 low. Michigan was second. Oklahoma had the least percentage decline in employment at 0.04 percent with a loss of just 600 jobs from peak to low (see Figure 3). How long did states take to fall from their peaks to their lows? The average was 17 months, with Ohio having the longest slide (31 months) followed by Michigan and Missouri at 30 months. Indiana took 25 months before recovery set in. Figure 4 shows that 11 states took more than two years before the slide in employment stopped. How is the rebound progressing? That too depends on where you are located. In 23 states and the District of Columbia, December 2002 was the recorded low. Again, revisions of these data may change the results. At this point, however, it appears just over half the states have stopped losing jobs. Figure 5 indicates that only three states have climbed more than 1 percent above their lows; Maryland leads these states at 2.3 percent or 54,600 jobs recovered. Indiana ranks 19th in recovery with a 0.3 percent increase (a gain of 9,200 jobs above the June 2002 low). Thus, with recovery underway, how far must we go to return to the previous peaks, ending the recovery and beginning another expansionary period in the U.S. economy? Michigan has the greatest distance to travel as it Figure 2: Quarters when Peaks and Lows Occurred, 2000 to 2002 The recovery accelerated throughout 2002 Number of states Figure 3: Low as a Percent of the Peak Indiana had the steepest decline among the states Higher than -% (12 states) -% to -1.9% (15 states) -2.0% to -2.9% (14 states) -3.0% or lower (10 states) Peak Month Low Month Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 25 months or more (11 states) 13 to 24 months (24 states) Less than 13 months (16 states) Calendar quarters Figure 4: Months from Peak to Low Eleven states took more than two years before the recovery began Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 INCONTEXT

3 IN THE SPOTLIGHT Figure 5: Percent Difference from Low to December 2002 Only three states have climbed more than 1% above their lows Zero (24 states) Less than 0.5% (12 states) 0.5% to 0.9% (12 states) 1% and higher (3 states) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics sits 182,800 (3.9 percent) jobs below its prior peak. Missouri follows at 3.78 percent behind its previous peak. Indiana is a close 48th at 3.75 percent below its May 2000 peak (see Figure 6). The average state is 1.6 percent below its prior peak. But five have already surpassed that standard and are moving toward new highs. These states are led by Kentucky which is 0.4 percent (6,800 jobs) over its previous high-employment mark. Other states realizing new highs are Nevada, New Mexico, Nebraska and Maryland. Summary As measured by employment change, Indiana saw the steepest decline (-4.1 percent) in the recent U.S. recession. That decline began in June 2000 and ended in June 2002, a period of 25 months. Thus far, Indiana has recovered 9,200 of the 122,300 jobs it lost in the recession. This 0.3 percent recovery ranks 19th best in the nation. But with 113,100 jobs still to be recovered (3.75 percent of the prior peak employment level), Indiana has the seventh longest path to follow and the third steepest climb to make before reaching its former employment peak. Morton J. Marcus, Executive Director, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University Figure 6: Percent Difference from Peak to December 2002 Indiana is 3.75% below its May 2000 peak Greater than zero (5 states) 0% to -0.9% (12 states) -% to -1.9% (13 states) -2.0% to -2.9% (13 states) -3.0% or lower (8 states) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The average state is 1.6 percent below its prior peak, but five states have already surpassed that standard and are moving toward new highs. INCONTEXT 3

4 IN THE NEWS Indiana Shows Marked Improvement in Adults with College Degrees Census survey figures show significant improvement for Indiana in terms of high school graduation rates and Hoosier adults with college degrees. Between 2001 and 2002, Indiana s high school graduation rate moved up from 84.4 percent to 85.3 percent. More significantly both statistically and as a sign of educational progress was the 2.5 point increase in the percentage of the population with a bachelor s degree or higher. In 2001, 21.2 percent of adults had achieved at minimum a B.A. and by 2002 that percentage increased to 23.7 percent. Indiana s rankings relative to other states and the District of Columbia have also improved (see Table 1). The Gender Gap A 13-year national deadlock between men s and women s high school graduation rates has finally been broken, based on results of the newly released report Educational More than 30% (11 states) 25.1% to 30% (18 states) 20 to 25% (19 states) Less than 20% (3 states) Attainment in the United States: March 2001 and March U.S. women 25 and older now have a high school graduation rate of 84.4 percent, compared to the men s rate of Indiana continues to experience a relatively small gender gap in high school graduation rates, with 86.1 percent of men graduating high school compared to 84.7 percent of women. A larger gap persists between men and women with bachelor s degrees, with 26.8 percent of men 25 and older with a B.A. or higher compared to only 21.1 percent of Hoosier women. Regional Gaps According to the Census Bureau, the Northeast had the highest proportion of college graduates at 29 percent. The West followed closely behind with 28 Table 1: Indiana s Rank Among 50 States and D.C. Attainment 2002 Rank 2001 Rank H.S. Graduation Rate Bachelor s Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau Figure 1: Percent Age 25 and Over with a Bachelor s Degree or More, 2002 The Northeast has the highest proportion of college graduates Table 2: Hoosier Demographics Demographic Characteristic 18 years and over 4, years and over 4, to 24 years to 44 years 1, to 64 years 1, years and over Male 1, Female 2, White 3, Non-Hispanic White 3, Black Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population (000's) Finished H.S. percent, the Midwest at 26 percent, while the South had 25 percent. B.A. or More About the Annual Survey Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau conducts what is called the annual demographic supplement to the March Current Population Survey. This supplement for 2002 is notable for a significant increase in the number of households surveyed. While the Census Bureau reports no significant statistical differences because of the sample, there were some effects on the 2001 and 2002 survey data by using the Census 2000 population controls. For those readers needing detail on the sample size increase and the confidence intervals of the data shown in this article, please go to the web: socdemo/educ-attn.html. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Carol O. Rogers, Associate Director, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University 4 INCONTEXT

5 IN BUSINESS THE SPOTLIGHT Indiana s Ports How many of us know that more than 400 miles of the state s border is water? This means that more than 50 percent of the Indiana border is water-based. This includes Lake Michigan and the Ohio and Wabash rivers. The three ports in Indiana are located in Portage, Jeffersonville and Mount Vernon. According to the Indiana Port Commission, more than 6 million tons of cargo were shipped via these ports in A recent study estimated the economic impact value of that cargo to the state of Indiana was $1.5 billion in That study, by the Center for Urban Policy and the Environment at Indiana University, further estimated that the ports contributed $398 million in wages for Indiana workers; 10,503 direct and indirect jobs, $22 million in tax revenue for the state of Indiana, nearly $1.4 million in local property taxes and an additional $54 million of economic impact attributable to publicly funded construction projects completed in Most of the cargo is sent by barge, with only 25 percent going by ship, with a relatively even balance between outbound (55 percent) and inbound (45 percent) cargo. The largest of the three ports, Clark Maritime in Jeffersonville, is nearly 1,000 acres, shipping 1.8 million tons of cargo. Southwind Maritime has approximately 750 acres of port space and shipped 2.1 million tons of cargo in In one of the most densely populated areas of the state, Burns Harbor is 560 acres, almost half the size of its southern sister in Jeffersonville, but shipped 2.1 million tons of cargo in Carol O. Rogers, Associate Director, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University Figure 2: Population in Water-Border Counties and Port Facts 25% of all Hoosiers reside in the 20 water-border counties Burns Harbor Acreage: Cargo: 2.1 million tons Tenants: 30 1 dot = 1,000 people Over 1.5 million Hoosiers live in water-border counties Figure 1: Cargo To and From Ports 35% of cargo was grain Limestone Miscellaneous Fertilizer Steel Coal Source: Indiana Port Commission Grain Southwind Maritime Acreage: Cargo: 2.1 million tons Tenants: 10 Clark Maritime Acreage: Cargo: 1.8 million tons Tenants: 20 Source: Indiana Port Commission and U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2000 population) INCONTEXT 5

6 IN THE DETAILS Keeping Up with the Hamiltons The Bush administration s latest proposal to cut income taxes has once again raised questions about the top-heavy distribution of income in the United States and reprised the familiar lament, The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The U.S. Census Bureau has tracked income inequality at the national level since 1947 with the annual March supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). From 1947 through the late 1960s, income inequality declined as income became more evenly distributed among the nation s households. Around 1968, however, the trend reversed. A common way of measuring income inequality begins with ranking all households in the sample on their income in the previous year and splitting the distribution into quintiles (five equal shares, or fifths). The shares of aggregate income received by each quintile are calculated and compared. In 1968, the highest income quintile received 42.8 percent of aggregate income while the lowest fifth received 4.2 percent. By 2001, the household income shares had shifted even more toward the top of the income distribution, with 50.1 percent of aggregate income now going to the top quintile and only 3.5 percent to the lowest quintile. Similar analysis with CPS data isn t feasible for local areas such as counties because of limited sample size. Census 2000 summary income tables also have serious limitations, presenting the number of households within predefined income ranges, thus precluding the ranking described above. While using census data to measure income inequality among households within counties is problematic, it s easier to make comparisons across counties. Instead of focusing on households, the unit of analysis is shifted to counties. By almost any measure, Hamilton County stands head and shoulders (torso, waistline and kneecap too) above all other Indiana counties on the income yardstick. This appears to be due to the disproportionate number of households with extremely high incomes. On Census 2000 summary tables, the top range for income in 1999 is $200,000 or more. Statewide, households with 1999 income at this level constituted 1.5 percent of all households. Figure 1 portrays the household share with income in 1999 of $200,000 or more. In more than half of Indiana s counties, this household share was less than 1 Figure 1: Household Share with Income of $200,000 or More High-income households are rare in rural counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2000, income year 1999) % or more (4 counties) 1% to 1.9% (40 counties) Less than 1% (48 counties) 6 INCONTEXT

7 IN THE DETAILS percent. Only four counties had at least 2 percent of their households at the highest income level, with Hamilton County leading the pack at 6.8 percent. The closest county on the household share measure was Boone, well behind at 3.7 percent. Hancock and Porter round out the list of counties in the top category. The map confirms that these high-income households are especially rare in rural counties. Another table on Census Summary File 3 presents data on aggregate household income and the amount that is attributable to households with income of $200,000 or more. Figure 2 depicts the share of aggregate income earned by these elite households. Once again, Hamilton easily outdistances the field with a figure of 26.4 percent, compared to second-place Boone County at 17 percent, and the state at 10.3 percent. Households in the $200,000 income Figure 2: Aggregate Income Share of $200,000 Income Households Hamilton County far surpasses all the other counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2000, income year 1999) % or more (19 counties) 5% to 9.9% (51 counties) Less than 5% (22 counties) range accounted for 10 percent or more of aggregate income in 19 Indiana counties. In contrast to Figure 1, a number of mostly rural counties scored in the highest category on the income share measure. Tiny Union County, with only 2,798 households, had the third highest score, with 14.9 percent of aggregate income attributable to $200,000-income households. Three other counties with fewer than 10,000 households Switzerland, Vermillion and Orange placed in the top category on this measure. The gap between the household share depicted in Figure 1 and aggregate income share in Figure 2 seems, at first glance, to provide a useful measure of income inequality. Since we re talking about the upper tier of income, we know that the aggregate income share will always exceed the household share. However, the relative size of the gap gives at least some indication of the degree to which state or county income is concentrated in a few elite households. The gap was zero for one county, Benton, where there were no households with income exceeding $200,000, resulting in perfectly matched zero shares on households and aggregate income. The only other set of circumstances that could result in a zero gap would be the utopia in which all households in the county had income of at least $200,000. Statewide, the gap between household share and aggregate income share was 8.8 percentage points. Sixteen of 92 counties posted larger gaps, with Hamilton County again INCONTEXT 7

8 IN THE DETAILS ranking first, with a spread of 19.6 points, followed by Union County at 13.9 points. Rounding out the top five counties on this measure were Boone, Vanderburgh and Switzerland. A large gap indicates that a substantial number of households in the top income tier had income in 1999 far exceeding $200,000. Average Household Income It would be hard to overstate how much Hamilton County stands apart from the remainder of Indiana on Census 2000 income measures. Another revealing yardstick for comparing counties is average household income. Median income is generally regarded as a superior summary measure, since it is less influenced by extreme values at the top of the income distribution, but the average is useful here precisely because the impact of elite, highincome households is the question of interest. In 1999, Hamilton County s average household income was $91,153, compared to $65,894 for second-place Hancock County, and $52,229 for the state. The dollar difference between first and second place is $25,259, an enormous gap equivalent to the $25,364 difference between second-place Hancock and 90th-ranked Pike County. The ratio of Hamilton County s average household income to Hancock is 1.38, meaning that the average Hamilton County household had income in 1999 that was 38 percent higher than the typical Hancock County household, which itself had 26 percent greater income than the average household statewide. Census 2000 data examined in this study may be inadequate to give a complete picture of income inequality within counties but provide a sharper image of inequality across counties. If this were the Indy 500, Hamilton County would have lapped the field a few times, and its lead over other Hoosier counties might be measured in minutes rather than seconds. John Besl, Research Demographer, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University Figure 3: Census 2000 Average Household Income (Income Year 1999) The dollar gap between first-place Hamilton and second-place Hancock is an enormous $25,259 Indiana = $52,229 Top Five Counties Ratio of County Average Household Income to State Average, IN = 0 Bottom Five Counties Hamilton $91, Porter Knox $39,658 6 Hancock $65, Blackford Blackford $40,070 7 Hamilton Boone $64, Boone Hendricks Hancock Pike $40,530 8 Porter $63, Greene Greene $40,836 8 Knox Hendricks $62, Pike Crawford Crawford $40,927 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8 INCONTEXT

9 IN LOCAL AREAS December s Unemployment Snapshot Figure 1: December 2002 Unemployment Rates Indiana s unemployment remains significantly lower than the nation burgh Posey Warrick Perry Spencer St. Joseph Lagrange Steuben Elkhart La Porte Noble De Kalb Lake Porter Marshall Kosciusko Starke Allen 1 Whitley 4.8 Newton Jasper Pulaski Fulton Huntington Wabash Cass Wells White Adams Benton Carroll Miami 5.0 Grant 4.0 Blackford Jay 5 Howard 6.5 Warren Tippecanoe Clinton Tipton Delaware Montgomery 5.0 Madison Fountain Randolph Boone 4.8 Hamilton Henry 5.4 Wayne Marion Parke 4.9 Hancock Hendricks Putnam Rush Fayette Union Johnson 3.6 Clay Morgan Shelby Franklin Vigo 5.1 Owen Brown Bartholomew 3.2 Decatur 4.7 Dearborn Sullivan Monroe Greene 2.9 Ripley Jennings 4.0 Ohio Jackson Lawrence 4.3 Jefferson Switzerland Daviess Knox 4.2 Martin Washington Scott Orange State Unemployment Rate = 4.7% Gibson Pike Vermillion Dubois 3.3 Vander- Above State Rate (37 counties) Approx. Equal to State Rate (+/- 0.3) (23 counties) Below State Rate (32 counties) Crawford Harrison 3.7 Clark 4.4 Floyd 3.8 Region outlines are Commerce Regions. Source: Monthly Labor Force Estimates, Indiana Department of Workforce Development; map by IBRC Indiana s unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) has remained at 4.7 for many months now and continues to be significantly lower than the national rate each month. Within Indiana, 37 counties experienced rates of unemployment higher than the state, particularly Orange (8.8), Fulton (8.4), Miami (8.4) and Fayette (8.0). Orange County s long history of high unemployment might change if the opportunity for gambling in that county passes the legislature this session. Table 1: December Unemployment Rates Commerce Regions (not seasonally adjusted) Region Region Region Region Region Region Region Region Region Region Region Region Source: STATS Indiana Future LAUS Releases Release Date Data March January Benchmark April Benchmark April February 2003 May Benchmark May March 2003 INCONTEXT 9

10 IN THE WORKFORCE Commerce Region 8: East Central Indiana The Area Commerce Region 8 is comprised of six counties in east central Indiana: Blackford, Delaware, Henry, Jay, Randolph and Wayne. Delaware County forms the Muncie Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Other cities in the area include Richmond, New Castle, Hartford City and Portland. Region 8 had 301,629 residents in 2000, declining 0.3 percent from 1990 figures. Of the 12 Commerce Regions, Region 8 alone had a declining population during the decade. Half of the counties in the area lost residents. Henry, Jay and Randolph counties were the exceptions, gaining a total of 916 people. Figure 1: Commuting and Population Density 39.4% of the region live in the Muncie MSA 1 dot = 150 people Delaware 475 Blackford ,223 Henry Wayne Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Census 2000 population) and STATS Indiana (2001 tax year commuting) 1, Jay Randolph Delaware County accounted for 39.4 percent of the regional population. An additional 23.6 percent lived in Wayne County (see Figure 1). Industrial Mix and Jobs Major employers in the area include 3-M, Anchor Glass Container, Ball State University, Borg-Warner Automotive, Cardinal Health System, DaimlerChrysler, First Merchants Corporation, Key Plastics, New Venture Gear, Saint Gobain, Union City Body and Workhorse Custom Chassis. In 2000, the services industry made up the bulk of regional employment at 27.6 percent, followed by manufacturing with 20 percent. Retail trade was not far behind, accounting for 19.1 percent of the region s jobs. Despite the lack of population growth, nonfarm employment increased 10.6 percent between 1990 and The largest percent increase occurred in transportation and public utilities with 25.6 percent (or 1,524 jobs). Following state and national trends, the services industry had the largest numeric increase of 8,903 (or 25.4 percent). Military employment declined 30.6 percent (or 477 lost jobs), while the manufacturing sector experienced closings and layoffs I-64 Commerce Region 8: Blackford, Delaware, Henry, Jay, Randolph and Wayne counties I-90 I-80/94 I-74 I-70 I-94 I-65 I-69 I-80/90 I-70 I-74 accounting for 1,468 lost jobs (a 4.4 percent decline). The recent bankruptcies and shutdowns in 2002 have caused problems for the area. Notable closings include Indiana Glass in Dunkirk, Burlington Motor Carriers and Transcom USA in Daleville, and Teleservices Direct and Indiana Steel & Wire in Muncie. Three of the five closings occurred at year s end, so the effects of the closings did not show up in last year s data. Nevertheless, Region 8 had consistently higher unemployment rates than nine of the other Commerce Regions throughout On the positive side, Autocar LLC is moving its world headquarters and truck manufacturing plant into Hagerstown and the $77 million addition to NC-M Chassis Systems (formerly New Castle Machining and 10 INCONTEXT

11 IN THE WORKFORCE Forge) should open by the end of the first quarter. Also in the works is a $4.17 million expansion of Milso Industries in Richmond that would create 55 to 60 new jobs, while Stealth Boat Company in New Castle is looking to expand by 150 to 200 employees within the next three years. Income and Wages In 2000, per capita personal income was $24,244 for the region; that s $2,689 less than the state average of $26,933. Table 1 shows the quarterly wages for the first quarter of 2001 (please note that the data in this table are segmented into the new NAICS classifications instead of the more familiar SIC codes). While the average weekly wage in Region 8 was $544, the most well paid sector was utilities with an average of $1,181. It is not surprising that those employed in accommodation and food services received the lowest wages both regionally and statewide. In each of the 20 divisions, wages per job were lower in East Central Indiana than in the state. The largest difference occurred in management of companies and enterprises, where employees in Region 8 earn $6,800 less a quarter (or $523 less each week). Additional data is available at: prcomm8.html. Rachel Justis, IN Context Managing Editor, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University Table 1: Average Employment and Earnings for First Quarter 2002 Industry Employment % of Employment Avg. Weekly Wage/Job Region 8 Indiana Region 8 Indiana Region 8 Indiana Total Covered Employment 117,949 2,779, % 100.0% $544 $629 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 293 9, % 0.4% $397 $491 Mining* D 6,509 0% 0.2% D $875 Utilities , % 0.6% $1,181 $1,201 Construction 3, , % 4.9% $578 $700 Manufacturing 27, , % 2% $778 $854 Wholesale Trade 3, , % 4.3% $623 $815 Retail Trade 15, , % 12.1% $339 $388 Transporation and Warehousing 4, , % 4.4% $557 $643 Information 1,697 49, % 1.8% $514 $716 Finance and Insurance 3, , % 3.7% $658 $919 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1,173 35,631 % 1.3% $468 $510 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,405 88, % 3.2% $562 $792 Management of Companies and Enterprises , % % $788 $1,311 Administrative and Support and Waste 4, , % 4.6% $386 $411 Management and Remediation Services Educational Services 12, , % 8.5% $580 $616 Health Care and Social Assistance 17, , % 11.6% $548 $597 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation , % 1.4% $244 $516 Accomodation and Food Services 9, , % 7.8% $186 $209 Other Services (Except Public Administration) 3,330 82, % 3.0% $319 $405 Public Administration 4, , % 4.4% $524 $620 * Data for mining establishments were nondisclosable in Region 8. Source: Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana Industry Employment and Wages, based on ES-202 data from the Indiana Department of Workforce Development INCONTEXT 11

12 INCONTEXT Published six times per year by a partnership of: Indiana Business Research Center Kelley School of Business Indiana University Executive Director: Morton J. Marcus Editor: Carol O. Rogers Managing Editor: Rachel Justis Circulation: Nikki Livingston Bloomington Campus 1275 E. Tenth Street, Suite 3110 Bloomington, Indiana IUPUI Campus 777 Indiana Avenue, Suite 210 Indianapolis, Indiana context@indiana.edu Indiana Department of Commerce News Behind the Numbers... Arecent story in the Indianapolis Star focused on the larger share of outof-state students coming to IU and Purdue these days. Two out of every five students, the paper reported, are from other states or other countries. Their numbers, increasing since the mid-1990s, now hover around 40 percent of 76,000 students on both campuses the highest rate in many years. Full text of the news article can be found at indianaeconomicdigest.net just type IU or Purdue in the search box. Numbers Behind the News... Indiana is a major net-importer of college students, ranking fourth in the nation and first in the Midwest, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis fedgazette (online). In 2000, Indiana netted 5,997 incoming freshmen to its universities and colleges. In other words, almost 6,000 more students came into Indiana for college than left for other states institutions of higher learning. Figure 1: Net Migration of Freshmen Indiana ranked first in Midwest in ,773 5,997-2,699 1, Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education Executive Director: Tim Monger Research Director: Dennis Paramore One North Capitol Suite 700 Indianapolis, Indiana For all the latest state and county figures and complete time series data sets related to the Indiana economy, visit the following Internet sites: Indiana Business Research Center Kelley School of Business Indiana University IUPUI Campus 777 Indiana Avenue, Suite 210 Indianapolis, IN Nonprofit Organization U.S. Postage PAID Permit No Indianapolis, Indiana Indiana Department of Commerce