Partial Repeal of the ACA through Reconciliation Coverage Implications for Arizona Residents

Transcription

1 AZ Partial Repeal of the ACA through Reconciliation Coverage Implications for Arizona Residents This fact sheet examines how a reconciliation bill similar to the one vetoed in January 2016 will affect health care coverage in Arizona. The estimates supplement two Health Policy Center reports: Implications of Partial Appeal of the ACA through Reconciliation (Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, and John Holahan) and Partial Repeal of the ACA through Reconciliation: Coverage Implications for Parents and Children (Buettgens, Genevieve M. Kenney, and Clare Pan). Information on data and methods is available in those reports. FIGURE 1 Health Insurance Coverage for Arizona Residents under Age 65, 2019 ACA 2016 reconciliation bill 4,551 3,008 1,714 1,459 1, Uninsured Medicaid/CHIP Private nongroup Employer coverage TABLE 1 Distribution of Health Insurance Coverage among Arizona Residents under Age 65, with the Affordable Care Act and under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 ACA Reconciliation Bill Difference (thousands of people) Insured 5,261 88% 4,551 76% -709 Employer 3,008 50% 2,938 49% -70 Nongroup (eligible for tax credit) 126 2% 0 0% -126 Nongroup (other) 224 4% 40 1% -184 Medicaid/Children s Health Insurance Program 1,714 29% 1,384 23% -330 Other (including Medicare) 190 3% 190 3% 0 Uninsured % 1,459 24% 709 Total 6, % 6, % M Street NW Washington DC urban.org

2 TABLE 2 Characteristics of Arizona Residents Losing Coverage under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 Uninsurance rate under ACA Uninsurance rate under reconciliation bill Age (years) < % 8% 14% % 16% 34% % 18% 32% % 16% 28% % 13% 27% % 10% 22% Family income level < 100% FPL % 11% 25% % FPL % 11% 29% % FPL 79 11% 15% 29% % FPL % 12% 24% % FPL 61 9% 7% 16% > 400% FPL % 16% 24% Family employment status At least one full-time worker % 11% 21% Part-time only % 18% 36% No worker % 15% 30% White, non-hispanic % 8% 20% Black, non-hispanic 29 4% 11% 20% Hispanic % 20% 30% Asian/Pacific Islander 30 4% 10% 24% American Indian/Alaska Native 59 8% 14% 29% Other, non-hispanic 12 2% 6% 17% Adult education attainment Less than high school 88 15% 33% 50% High school % 17% 34% Some college % 11% 24% College 73 13% 7% 18% Graduate school 33 6% 4% 14% Total % 14% 29% Notes: ACA = Affordable Care Act; FPL = federal poverty level. Columns may not sum to totals because of rounding. 2

3 FIGURE 2 Uninsured Children in Arizona, 2019 of children Uninsured under the ACA Difference from ACA scenario ACA 2016 reconciliation bill 2016 reconciliation bill and no MOE 2016 reconciliation bill and no separate CHIP program Notes: ACA = Affordable Care Act; CHIP = Children s Health Insurance Program; MOE = maintenance of eligibility. Children are ages 18 and younger, following Medicaid/CHIP guidelines. Medicaid/CHIP eligibility under the no MOE scenario is at federal minima for all states under the 2016 reconciliation bill: 138 percent of the federal poverty level for children younger than 6 and 100 percent of the federal poverty level for children ages 6 to 18. If the MOE provision is eliminated, states would decide whether to reduce eligibility levels for children. FIGURE 3 Uninsured Parents in Arizona, 2019 Uninsured under the ACA Difference from ACA scenario ACA 2016 reconciliation bill Note: ACA = Affordable Care Act. 3

4 TABLE 3 Characteristics of Arizona Children Losing Coverage under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 Losses under Reconciliation state of children total Additional Coverage at Risk under No MOE state of children total Age % 27 18% % % Family income < 100% FPL 15 11% <1 0% % FPL 13 10% 91 61% % FPL 14 11% 59 39% % FPL 36 27% <1 0% % FPL 17 13% <1 0% > 400% FPL 36 28% <1 0% White, non-hispanic 62 47% 40 26% Black, non-hispanic 4 3% 9 6% Hispanic 42 32% 85 57% Asian/Pacific Islander 6 4% 2 1% American Indian/Alaska Native 13 10% 12 8% Other, non-hispanic 5 4% 3 2% Family employment status At least one full-time worker % % Part-time only 7 5% 14 9% No worker 7 5% 14 10% No parent at home 7 6% 9 6% Notes: CHIP = Children s Health Insurance Program; FPL = federal poverty level; MOE = maintenance of eligibility. Columns may not sum to totals because of rounding. Children are ages 18 and younger, following Medicaid/CHIP guidelines. Medicaid/CHIP eligibility under the No MOE scenario is at federal minima for all states under the 2016 reconciliation bill: 138 percent of FPL for children younger than 6 and 100 percent of FPL for children ages 6 to 18. If the MOE provision is eliminated, states would decide whether to reduce eligibility levels for children. 4

5 TABLE 4 Characteristics of Arizona Parents Losing Coverage under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 of parents Age % % % % % Family income < 100% FPL 33 22% % FPL 42 28% % FPL 16 11% % FPL 18 12% % FPL 11 7% > 400% FPL 31 20% White, non-hispanic 72 47% Black, non-hispanic 4 3% Hispanic 56 37% Asian/Pacific Islander 8 5% American Indian/Alaska Natives 9 6% Other, non-hispanic 2 2% Employment status At least one full-time worker % Part-time only 16 11% No worker 19 13% Source: Urban Institute analysis using HIPSM Note: FPL = federal poverty level. Acknowledgments This fact sheet was prepared by Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan, Genevieve M. Kenney, and Clare Pan. These estimates were funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. Funders do not determine research findings or the insights and recommendations of Urban experts. Further information on the Urban Institute s funding principles is available at Copyright January Urban Institute. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute. 5