2016 Q4 Results. Presentation by the PAs to the EEAC. March 15, 2017

Transcription

1 2016 Q4 Results Presentation by the PAs to the EEAC March 15, 2017

2 Introduction Q4 results are preliminary and subject to change due to: Quality control/clean-up Actual evaluation results PAs used placeholder values to approximate evaluation changes, but there may be some material updates (e.g., New Construction evaluation will likely lead to significant decrease in claimable savings) Final 2016 results will be filed with the D.P.U. on May 1, 2017 in each PA s 2016 Plan-Year Report 2

3 2016 Year-End/Fourth Quarter Statewide Overview Lifetime Savings Electric PAs achieved 110% of lifetime savings goal Gas PAs achieved 105% of lifetime savings goal Benefits Electric PAs achieved 110% of total planned benefits Gas PAs achieved 107% of total planned benefits Spend Both electric and gas came in under budget, electric at 89% and gas at 93% 3

4 Electric 2016 Summary Preliminary Actuals as a Percent of Plan Targets Residential Low Income Commercial & Industrial Total 184% 118% 105% 119% 82% 86% 97% 89% 128% 123% 126% 119% 117% 120% 114% 113% 112% 110% 106% 82% Sum of Participants Sum of Total Spend Sum of Capacity (kw) Sum of Energy (annual MWh) Sum of Energy (Lifetime MWh) 4

5 Total Benefits (Electric Programs) Electric Statewide Benefits Compared to Goal Millions $2,500 $2,000 $2,255 $2,042 $1,500 $1,379 $1,105 $1,000 $750 $822 $500 $126 $115 $ Residential Low Income Commercial & Industrial Total Left, dark colors = Actual Right, pastel colors = Planned 5

6 Residential Performance, Electric PAs aggressively pursued cost-effective opportunities and exceeded Annual Savings goal (106%) Claimable Lifetime Savings (82%) not as robust as annual, but this is not an indication of an under performance Plan-to-actual discrepancy is not due to decreased production; rather, it is caused by lower than planned residential lighting measure lives, which is due to changes in forecasted market adoption 6

7 Spending PAs actively pursued opportunities in all sectors PAs seek to achieve savings and deliver benefits spending should lead to savings and benefits, is not an independent goal Additional spending does not always correlate to additional cost-effective savings Only 73% and 85% PP&A expended in electric and gas, respectively, showing that PAs are seeking to minimize administrative costs per GCA PAs can move money from PP&A if appropriate, but do not know the full picture until the end of the year; during year, need to make sure there are sufficient planning funds 7

8 Low Income Performance, Electric Exceeded savings, participation, and benefits goals while coming in under budget Low-income participation was an area of special interest and focus PAs and LEAN continue to seek opportunities to serve income-eligible customers and consistently review best practices 8

9 Effect of CHP on C&I Electric Savings Over Three Years 9

10 Balanced Portfolio of Electric Savings (C&I) 10

11 C&I Upstream Lighting Lifetime Savings, MWh PA CLC 121,744 82,426 75,996 Eversource 863,827 1,201,973 1,021,137 National Grid 896, , ,257 Unitil 15,278 21,674 8,253 Savings as a Percent of Total Lifetime C&I Savings PA CLC 38% 27% 37% Eversource 16% 17% 19% National Grid 25% 14% 17% Unitil 21% 33% 20% 11

12 Impact of Lighting Changes to Portfolio Savings Trends 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 Annual MWh Savings Trend 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Lifetime MWh Savings Trend Q Q4 Despite highest-ever Annual savings, Lifetime savings are only slightly above 2014; this will be new normal as lighting measure lives continue to decrease. 12

13 Gas 2016 Summary YTD Preliminary Actuals as a Percent of Plan Goal Residential Low Income Commercial & Industrial Total 138% 113% 114% 104% 99% 99% 101% 94% 95% 97% 92% 93% 93% 92% 88% 105% Sum of Participants Sum of Total Spend Sum of Annual Therms Sum of Lifetime Therms 13

14 Total Benefits (Gas Programs) Gas Statewide Benefits Compared to Goal Millions $700 $600 $585 $547 $500 $400 $300 $344 $304 $200 $166 $164 $100 $75 $78 $ Residential Low Income Commercial & Industrial Total Left, dark colors = Actual Right, pastel colors = Planned 14

15 Low Income Performance, Gas Strong performance, but overall slightly lower than 2015 Cost-effectiveness challenges reduce the number of measures that can be offered Overall opportunity declining sales to low-income sector customers lower for many PAs in 2016 Savings slightly under goal, but still strong in light of aggressive goals PAs continue to work with LEAN to seek cost-effective opportunities to serve customers 15

16 Thank you

17 Electric Cumulative Statewide % of Planned Goal Cumulative Statewide Achievements as Percent of Planned Goal (12/36 Months) Residential Low Income Commercial & Industrial Total 57% 41% 35% 41% 24% 25% 31% 27% 42% 40% 40% 41% 38% 39% 37% 38% 38% 38% 29% 35% Sum of Participants Sum of Total Spend Sum of Capacity (kw) Sum of Energy (annual MWh) Sum of Energy (Lifetime MWh) 17

18 Gas Cumulative Statewide % of Planned Goal Cumulative Statewide Achievements as Percent of Planned Goal (12/36 Months) Residential Low Income Commercial & Industrial Total 45% 31% 37% 32% 30% 29% 37% 32% 34% 33% 32% 30% 31% 30% 32% 34% Sum of Participants Sum of Total Spend Sum of Annual Therms Sum of Lifetime Therms 18