ROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW - SUPPLEMENT - INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM Programs for Romania s Economic Recovery in the Horizon 2020 Perspective

Transcription

1 Institutul Naţional de Statistică Societatea Română de Statistică ROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW - SUPPLEMENT - INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM Programs for Romania s Economic Recovery in the Horizon 2020 Perspective 2015/Nr. 1

2 Autorii poartă întreaga răspundere pentru conţinutul materialelor publicate, revista şi Societatea Română de Statistică fiind exonerate de orice răspundere. ISSN

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS THE POPULATION AND THE LABOR FORCE MARKET... 7 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhD Diana Valentina SOARE PhD Student THE INVESTMENT EVOLUTION IN ROMANIA Adina Mihaela DINU PhD Student COMMUNITY ACQUIS. DEFICIENCIES OF THE LEGISLATIVE HARMONISATION PROCESS. PARTICULAR FOCUS ON THE MANAGEMENT AS CAUSE OF INCOMPLIANCE Bazil OGLINDĂ, Assistant Professor, LL.D. CLASSIFICATION OF CONTRACTS ACCORDING TO THE NEW CIVIL CODE Assoc. prof. Ioana Nely MILITARU, LL.D. EVALUATION OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE INFLUENCE ON PERFORMANCE OF ROUMANIAN COMPANIES Ph. D Professor Georgeta VINTILǍ Ph.D.Student Floriniţa DUCA THE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL FOR SETTING UP THE FUTURES PRICE Prof. Mario G.R. PAGLIACCI PhD Prof. Janusz GRABARA PhD Lecturer Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD Cristina SACALĂ PhD Student Vasile Lucian ANTON Master student THE PRODUCTION INDICES IN AGRICULTURE Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Daniel DUMITRESCU PhD Student TAXATION OF INCOME FROM INVESTMENTS Assoc. prof. dr. Raluca Andreea MIHALACHE Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015 3

4 THE IMPACT OF UNEMPLOYMENT ON OLDER POPULATION IN THE NORTH-EAST REGION Assoc. prof. Elena BUGUDUI PhD INVOLVEMENT OF THE TOP MANAGEMENT IN THE PROGESS OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE OF A SUCCESSFUL COMPANY Prof. Mircea UDRESCU PhD Prof. Constantin CODERIE PhD Associate Prof. Dan NASTASE PhD THE MARKOWITZ MODEL Prof. Ioan PARTACHI PhD Lecturer Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD Cristina SACALĂ PhD Student Iustina JURESCHI, Master student ANALYSIS OF TOURIST TRAFFIC INDEXES IN ROMANIA COMPARED TO SOME COUNTRIES IN EUROPE Alina GHEORGHE PhD Student REGIONALIZATION- AN ACTUAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC MEGA- TREND Cristian GHENA PhD Student DYNAMICS OF LABOR PRODUCTIVITY. LAW OF MARGINALLY DECREASING PRODUCTIVITY Assoc. prof. Dragoş Gabriel MECU PhD THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDICES Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU PhD Ligia PRODAN PhD Student ESTIMATION AND VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION IN A SMALL-SIZE DSGE MODEL Oana Simona HUDEA (CARAMAN) 4 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

5 THE INFLATION (CONSUMER PRICE) EVOLUTION Lecturer Mădălina ANGHEL PhD MULTIDIMENSIONAL DATA APPROACH FOR THE ANALYSIS OF TURNOVER FOR TRADE COMPANIES Lecturer Adrian ANICA-POPA PhD Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015 5

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7 The Population and the Labor Force Market Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Artifex University of Bucharest Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Diana Valentina SOARE PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract This paper analyzes the demographic status and evolution for Romania by taking into account two economic dimensions: the population and the labor force. The dynamic of the population outlines some key figures relevant for years in the interval , comparison are made against the similar indicators for other European countries. In the present context, which favors the region-based approach, the authors consider and analyze the regional dimension. Key words: population, labor force, evolution, occupied, region, sector The occupied population includes all persons both employees and freelancers who develop a productive activity within the production limits of the European Accounts System. The evolution of occupied population, by trimesters, in , followed an ascending course. The occupied population was some 9.5 million people. Employees represent all the persons working mainly on the basis of a formal or informal contract, for other resident institutional entity, in exchange for wages or some equivalent pay. The number of employees, shows a level oscillating between 6.4 million in quarter II 2009 and 6.6 million in trimester III 2009, 6.5 million in trimester III 2010, 5.9 millions in trimester II 2011, reaching the level of 6.1 millions in trimester I Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015 7

8 The process of reduction of the number of employees continued, reacing the level of million in December From this date on, it can be observed the increase, in a slow rhythm however, of the number of employees, that reaches the level of 4.43 million in July This number differs significantly form the one of employees that is currently operated with. It includes the number of employees determined in compliance with the accounts, that take into consideration, both data sources used to determine the cost of labor force occupation, such as the Survey on labor force in households (AMIGO); the Inquiry regarding the cost of labor force (S3); Annual structural survey in enterprises (ASA); and also administrative data sources (information provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Labor, Family and Equality of Chances, Ministry of Interior and Administrative Reform etc.); accounting situations of commercial companies. I state that the number of employees includes those working in the hidden economy, established according the computation methodology. Another category is represented by the independent workers (freelancers), they being the sole owners or co-owners of the entities without judicial personality they work in. In this category, can also be included: family workers, non-paid and home workers that manufacture for market; workers that exert, both individually and collectively, productive activities regarding exclusively the final consumption or formation of capital on their own account. The occupied population, according to the SEC methodology, is the sole indicator that indicates the human potential of the occupied labor force that can be used to determine the social productivity of labor as a ratio between the GDP and the occupied population. The evolution of the productivity of labor is, within the series, fluctuant enough, from positive elevated levels, to constant decreases starting quarter I 2009 until quarter I 2010, to record a comeback to a positive trend, of 1.6% in quarter II 2010 against the previous year, of 1.9% in quarter III 2010 against quarter III In 2013 and during the six months of 2014, the productivity have not manifested significant oscillations, but recorded a still low level. Real hourly productivity marks, in principle, the same evolution as the real productivity per occupied person. 8 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

9 In the analysis of the occupied population, it can be observed the percent evolution of the structure occupied regarding the great employees categories and individual entrepreneurs. In this context, according to the European Account System edition 1995 also, the employees hold a weight of some 70% out of the occupied population. On activity branches, the greatest weight is held by agriculture, with 27.6%, followed by industry, with 22.5% and transports with 21%. The indicator occupied population of Romania compared to other countries proves a concerning discrepancy in negative way and where I think the attention of decisional factors must be focused. In 2014, Romania, with a rate of occupation of 61.8%, was among the countries with values below EU28 average (for which, the value of the indicator was 64.5%). The greatest values of the occupation ratio in 2011 were recorded in: Netherlands (76.3%), Denmark (74.1%), Sweden (72.9%), Austria (71,4%) and Germany (71.0%). In most EU28 member states, the occupation ratio in 2014 was increasing, excepting four member states, in which case slight declines were observed (between 0.1 and 0.4 percent points): Portugal, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Belgium. At the level of EU28 the increase against the previous quarter was +0.7 p.p. Against the same period of 2009 the occupation ratio was in decline in most European states. At the level of EU28 the decrease was -0.5 p.p. The exceptions are 6 member states, for which the occupation ratio remained at the same level or increased slightly (at most 1.0 p.p.) among these, Romania. In 2014, in Romania, the weight of employees in total occupied working age population was 66.1% - one of the most reduced in Europe (the next-to-the-last place, after Greece). In the same time, the weight of non-employees in agriculture (mainly employees on their own and family non-paid workers) was 26.2% - the greatest in Europe. The increase of occupation in 2014 against the previous periods occurred on the background of transition towards agriculture, phenomenon visible from: Reduction of employees weight; The increase of the weight of non-employees in agriculture. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015 9

10 In 2014, the occupation ratio of the working-age population was 60.5%; increasing by +0.2 p.p. against the end of Regarded through the prism of distribution by development regions, the smallest occupation ratio was recorded in the Center region (53.2%) and the greatest in the North East region (65.3%). Occupation rates greater than the national average (60.1%) were recorded only in two regions where the agricultural sector is significant North-East (65.3%) and South (63.2%), and also in Bucharest Ilfov (62.8%) where labor force is drawn into the services sector. The highest growths, established by chain indexes, were recorded in the North East region and South Muntenia, and the highest decreases were emphasized in Bucharest Ilfov and South-West Oltenia. Territorial disparities of the occupation ratio (%) Data source: National Institute of Statistics. Information regarding the budget sector must be carefully analyzed, because the data refer to the statistics from economic activities (aggregated on homogenous activity) according to CAEN Rev.2.: public 10 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

11 administration, education, respectively health and social assistance (including private education some 2%, respectively some 4.5% for health and social assistance), excluding the armed forces and assimilated personnel (MApN, SRI, MAI etc.). These statistics do not take into account the financing form, their purpose being to provide information on economic activities, according to CAEN Rev.2. The budgetary sector was characterized, during the period by continuous decreases of the number of employees. The most accentuate declines were recorded in 2010 and during the first nine months of Also, declines in the effective of employees recorded in the pubic administration units can be found in the secondary activities developed by these entities: cultural, sport, and recreational activities, landscape design and services for buildings, agriculture, water supply, sanitation, waste management, de-contamination, constructions, transport and storage, production and supply of electrical and thermal energy, gases, hot water and air conditioning, lease and sub-lease of real estate goods etc. As for the evolution of average monthly salary gains during the period , they were characterized, mainly, by declines from one month to another, excepting the months when annual and occasional premiums were granted, according to the national law, sums from other funds. After 2013, there was re-ruled the increase of salaries, which have been decreased when foreign contracts were drawn. Compared to the previous year, in 2013, the vacant work places ratio decreased in health and social assistance (by 0.20 p.p.), public administration (by 0.11 p.p.), and in education it increased (by 0.12 p.p.). The evolution of the vacant work places ratio was more accentuated in health and social assistance (by 2.53 p.p.), followed by public administration (0.67 p.p.), and for education the ratio kept unchanged. In 2011, little more that 10% of the total vacant work places were recorded in each of the activities: public administration (2.7 thousand vacant places), respectively health and social assistance (2.4 thousand vacant places), while in education the demand for work places was of some one thousand. Comparatively against the previous periods, in health and social assistance, the most significant decrease of number of vacant places Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

12 recorded: by 7.8 thousand vacant places, representing more than two-thirds (67.5%) of the number of vacant places that diminished within a year in the whole economy, respectively with 0.8 thousand vacant places against the previous trimester. In public administration, in , the number of vacant work places decreased. In education, a slight increase of the demand for work places recorded, as against the previous year, following the start of the new school year. Among the European countries, the evolutions against 2010 are divergent: as the decrease trend is observed in 12 countries, increase in 12 while in 3 countries the weight of administration employees remained constant against the same period of the previous year. Evolution of the unemployment ratio % P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P P Provisional data Data source: Data source: National Institute of Statistics, press release no. 181 of July 31st 2014 The number of unemployed people, in July 2014, was 700,000 persons, by 39,000 lower than in June In June 2014, the rate of unemploymnent in seasonally adjusted series was estimated at 7.1%, in decrease 0.2 percentage points as against 12 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

13 the previous mont hand by 0.3 percentage points as againts the level for June The information corresponding to the financing form are managed by the Ministry if Finance, according to the provisions of OUG no. 48/2005, with subsequent completions and modifications. In the basis of this ordnance, the main credit orders for the pubic institutions financed from the state budget, social security budget, special funds budget and of the autonomous public institutions integrally financed from own revenues, submit, monthly, to the Ministry of Pubic Finances, for the previous month, situations regarding the monitor of the number of posts and personnel expenses, for their own apparatus and for public institutions in their subordination, co-ordination or authority, regardless the financing mode. The number of unemployed people (age years), estimated for June 2014 is 700 thousand persons, decrease both from the previous month (718 thousand persons) and from the same month of the previous year (739 thousand persons). Number of unemployed people during June 2012 June 2014 persons P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P P Provisional data Data source: National Institute of Statistics, press release no. 181 of July 31st 2014 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

14 By sexes, the unemployment ratio for men is by 1.3 percentage points higher than the one for women (the values being 7.7% for men and 6.4% for women). For adult persons (25-74 years), unemployment ratio was 5.7% ofr June 2014 (6.3% for men and 4.9% for women). Unemployment rate on sexes (%) 2013 Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total yrs 7,4 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,4 7,4 7, yrs 6,0 5,9 5,9 5,9 5,9 5,9 5,9 Men yrs 8,0 7,8 7,9 7,9 8,0 8,0 7, yrs 6,5 6,4 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,5 6,5 Women yrs 6,6 6,6 6,6 6,6 6,6 6,6 6, yrs 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,2 5,1 5,2 5, Jan. P Feb. P Mar. P Apr. P May P Jun. P Total yrs 7,3 7,2 7,2 7,1 7,3 7, yrs 5,8 5,7 5,7 5,6 5,8 5,7 Men yrs 7,8 7,7 7,8 7,7 7,9 7, yrs 6,4 6,2 6,3 6,2 6,4 6,3 Women yrs 6,5 6,6 6,4 6,3 6,5 6, yrs 5,1 5,1 4,9 4,8 5,0 4,9 P Provisional data Data source: National Institute of Statistics, press release no. 181 of July 31st Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

15 The number of unemployed people aged years represents 74.3% of the total number of unemployed estimated for June The salary gain, both in nominal and real terms, increasedin 2014 from the previous periods. In July 2014, the average gross monhly salary was 2,378 lei. Average gross earnings in July 2014 Except armed forces and similar (The Ministry of National Defence, The Ministry of Internal Affairs, The Romanian Intelligence Service etc.). Data source: National Institute of Statistics. Monthly Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2014, p. 121 On activities of the national economy, the maximum values of the net average salary gain are in the financial brokerage (with percentage between % above economy average). At the opposite pole, with the lowest net average salary gain, are placed the hotels and restaurants activities (with percentage between 41 43% below economy average). To be noted that both sections hold similar percentage as numbers of employees at the level of the national economy (some 2-3% each). In 2014, compared to the previous year, the net average salary gain had a slightly decreasing trend, for most economic activities (excepting those pertaining to the Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

16 budgetary, hotels and restaurants, real estate transactions and shows, cultural and recreational sectors). In 2014, the average net salary gain realized on various activities of the national economy has recorded, both increases and decreases, in almost equal measure. So, in the economic sector, slight increases were recorded, the greatest being in the activity of production and supply of electrical and thermal energy, gases, hot water and air conditioning (+1.8%). At the opposite pole, with the most significant decrease of the net average salary gain, was the extractive industry (-18.9%, because of the premiums granted for oilers day in the previous month). By main activity of economy, in industry Data source: National Institute of Statistics. Monthly Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2014, p. 121 In the public property units (fully state-owned or state-owned majority), the average net salary gain has the highest values. The lowest average net salary gains are recorded in the privately-owned entities (privately-owned majority, fully private, fully foreign), that hold the majority weight of the number of employees (some 63%). The number of pensioners with pensions above 1000 lei represented, at the analyzed moment, just the fifth part (21.1%) of the total social security pensioners. The average number of social security pensioners had a descending quarterly evolution, from 2002 until Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

17 Average number and average monthly pension of pensioners and social support beneficiaries Pensioners - total (l+ll+lll)*) 1.1. Social insuranc e pension ers - total of which: - state social insurance pensioners - Social insurance pensioners from the former agriculturist s system - Social insurance pensioners from the evidence of the State Secretary for Cults - Social insurance pensioners from the evidence of the Advocates Insurance House 1.2. Benefici aries of pensiontype social support -**) years Average number of pensioners - thousands- Trim. I Trim. II Trim III Trim. IV Average pension Lei/month Trim. I Trim. I Trim. II Trim III Trim. IV 2014 against Trim , , , , , , , I Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

18 1.3. I.O.V.R. Pensioners years Average number of pensioners - thousands- Trim. I Trim. II Trim III Trim. IV Average pension Lei/month Trim. I Trim. I Trim. II Trim III Trim. IV , against Trim. 1) including taxes and social health contributions related to retirement income (O.U.G. no.87/2000 and OUG no.107/2010)., *) Including people retired from the Ministry of National Defense, Ministry of Interior, Romanian Intelligence Service. **) Paid from the Social Insurance Fund. Data source: National Institute of Statistics. Monthly Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2014 In quarter II 2012, the number of social security pensioners has followed an ascending trend, reaching 5531 thousand persons. As for the state social security pensioners, after being on a continuous ascending trend, since quarter II 2007 (4641 thousand persons), since quarter III 2010, recorded a decrease, to 4759 thousand persons, in 2011 and 4720 thousand persons in quarter I, In 2011, comparative to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the social security pensioners had the possibility to spend averagely with only 26 lei (+3.6%) additional. In 2012, the index of the real pension decreased as against the previous year (96.0% from 118.1%); subsequently, the purchasing power of the social security pension declined. In quarter I, 2012, the average pension was 766 lei/month. In the analyzed period, some 3/4 of the total departments have recorded a greater number of pensioners compared to the employees. In the top of this group, there are Giurgiu and Teleorman where the report pensioners/employees was almost 2 (1.9) pensioners for one employee. The Bucharest municipality was at the opposite pole, recording the lowest value of the report (0.6). The departments in which the ratio is 1 to 1 represents a tenth from the total. According to the provisional results of the Survey on Family Budgets realized by NIS in 2010, the average monthly total revenues for a household were 2257 lei, a value relatively constant during The structure of the money incomes of households reveals the same trend as the total revenues. In 2011, the average total revenues for an urban household were by 32.3% higher. References Anghelache, C. (2014) România Starea economică pe calea redresării, Editura Economică, Bucureşti 2012 I 18 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

19 Anghelache, C. (2013) - România Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiză economică utilizarea modelelor în studiul economiei României, Revista Română de Statistică, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Biji, M., Lilea, E., Roşca, E., Vătui, M. (2010) - Statistica pentru economişti Editura Economică, Bucureşti Lilea, F.P.C. (2010) Analiza statistică a repartiţiei regionale a întreprinderilor mici şi mijlocii în România, Editura Ideea Europeană, Bucureşti *** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 1-12/2012, 1-12/2013 şi 1-7/2014 editat de Institutul Naţional de Statistică *** Comunicate de presă pe anul 2014 ale Institutului Naţional de Statistică Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

20 The Investment Evolution in Romania Adina Mihaela DINU PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract The economic and social outcomes recorded by Romania by the end of the year 2011 are emphasizing an unprecedented collapse. The unity of the basic indicators allowing the evaluation, quantity and quality wise, of the economic development is marking an up warding trend as comparatively the previous periods. The reserves of foreign currencies held by the National Bank recorded a slight increase, with a reasonable level by the end of the year 2011, by means of drawing a certain quantity of foreign currency existing with the population. An ordinary calculation leads to the conclusion that, presently, there is an amount of about eight-nine billion US dollars with the population, nor deposited in bank accounts. Key words: investments, context, capital, competition, economic branches 1. The general frame In the situation that the exports fail to maintain at a high level, keeping the trend they have shown during the year 2011 and the sold of the commercial balance will keep on remaining in deficit, while no attractive steps will be taken in respect of drawing to the bank accounts the foreign currency held by the population, the achievement of the reimbursements due for terms in the year 2012 and the subsequent ones will definitely be more difficult so that new loans or the re-scheduling of the payments reaching their maturity, even if not hard to obtain, will jeopardize the efforts meant to implement the steps forecasted by the governmental programme. This last step (namely getting new credits or re-scheduling the falling dues) will depend on the way in which Romania is going to act within the process of integration in the European Union as well as on the access to the European funds and on the drawing of direct foreign investments, along with the relations of Romania with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, relations materialized in loan 20 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

21 agreements. In order to underline the above picture, I should point out the fact that there is a constant deficit of the foreign trade balance being recorded since 1990 up to date. Under the submitted circumstance, practically there are not too many saving steps to consider. Among them: the drawing of foreign capital investment in Romania would be the one to desire but the lack of security as to the evolution of the Romanian economy and of a coherent legislative framework are not of the kind to stimulate the foreign investors. As far as the economic recovery by means of the capital investment is concerned, I have already mentioned the drawing of the foreign capital investment since it is a little more difficult to believe that the perspective of a significant increase of the real autochthonous capital might be the optimum solution. Considering the situation which has been reached, neither the commercial companies which look well consolidated will be in the position to go for the privatization process because of financial resources shortage. Meantime, applying for credits with the purpose of investing as capital would be restricted not only because of the legal provisions but also because of the high level of interests required by the commercial banks. In this context, the drawing of autochthonous and foreign capital and investment is actually a realistic way for any economic situation, both in Romania and worldwide, mainly in Europe. It is easy to understand that the major foreign investments would have as effect: replacing the loans at which Romania has to apply; the retechnologizing of the companies ad autonomous administrations; the implementation of a new model of management; the warranty for the personnel qualification and specialization; the utilization of the market segments belonging to those who are investing, eliminating thus the external competition; rising the production quality and, not the last, the decentralization of the activity and the development of the market economy. 2. Details concerning the evolution of the investments As well-known, the renewing of the fix funds, their improvement, the development of new capacities of production endowed at the level of the technological requirements on the international plan, is representing priorities for any economy aiming to keep itself in equilibrium and to circumscribe within a steady process of development at the macro level. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

22 For countries as Romania, passing through a transition process towards the market economy, the need of drawing investments for domains with development potential is a must. Romania, as well as the other east-european countries, inherited an integrated industrial development where the production capacities used to work interdependently and to secure, at a qualitative level more or less satisfactory, the products required by the domestic market as well as surplus for exports to those markets which accepted the quality of the respective products. Starting with the year 1990, an ample process of transformation began, aiming to turn the Romanian economy from a super-nationalised one into a market economy. The idea seems to be not only a beneficial one but vital as for securing a new re-launch of the industry in Romania. However, from these intentions to the concrete modalities through which the actual achievement of the economic reform and privatization has been tried, there is a somehow longer way to consider. We recall that in 1990 two hypotheses have been issued which, approached in their connection, are offering a global image on the level of the Romanian economy of that period, representing, meantime, the theses of the strategies of reform, restructuring and privatization being elaborated afterwards. On one side, there were talks about the agriculture of top productions and, with many other criticisable aspects, the great bet with the agriculture has been done. Twenty three years after launching this bet, we can state out, with great disappointment and increasing concern, that this bet was in fact not only abandoned but actually swept away by a reality which makes the agriculture regressing from all the point of view (endowment, agro-technics, outcomes etc.) to a stage eventually comparable with the inter-wars one. On the other side, as regards the industry, it has been alleged axiomatically that it would have been a cluster of scraps, fruit of a megalomaniac conception. Now we have to ascertain that these scraps are also terribly rusty, without having anything else implemented, special, in the spirit of the technique by the end of the millennium. A significant aspect, which should have been taken into account by those who took over the national economy destiny, is given by the necessity 22 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

23 to continue, finalize and put into operation the investments being under achievement process at that time. Unfortunately, in the case of many of these situations, the works have been stopped, delayed or ceased, implying huge losses for both the concerned enterprises and the overall economy. On this ground, the evolution of the investments was different as against other sectors of the national economy. Thus, at a first stage after 1990, a dramatic decrease of the investment funds centralized allocated has been remarked, the germs of the private capital being not able to replace the emptiness left by the interruption of the activities and the lack of new amounts allocated from the state budget in this filed. This is how, during the first three-four years after 1990, the allocation of funds for certain modernization has been emphasized, the private capital focusing on investments in the field of re-technologizing (mainly through imports of equipment and other fix means, in general terms) or on building new capacities of production or distribution of small size. Certainly, this is a characteristic feature of the market economy but in this way a lot of resources have been waste within the investment projects in achievement course. During a second stage, we state out that the resources generated in the privatization process have been directed to investments, a process which might have been more supported under the conditions of a more simulative fiscal legislation. On this ground, even under the conditions of a strong economic crisis, internal and international, the volume of investments kept on remaining at a constant level, with slight increases from one period to another, till the year 2008, when the effects of the crisis have been launched. Typical is the fact that the funds for investment have been directed towards imports of equipment, neglecting thus the capacity of the Romanian industry to become, by re-technologizing, competitive at the level of the external market. Under such conditions, the re-launching of the Romanian industry, of the economy in general, in the context of the laws and requirements governing the market economy, remains not only a desideratum but it is to be stated out that the degradation level for both the big industry and the other sectors of activity becomes more striking, this process getting an Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

24 irreversible trend. To note both the trend and the superior weight of the investments meant for fix means, as comparatively with those allocated to the construction. The main investments achieved during the analysed period have been directed towards the manufacturing industry, the electric and thermic industry, the agriculture and the tertiary sector (trade, post and telecommunications, public administration). The investments in the public sector, which main destination is given by the infrastructure works, have been directed with priority to the domains of national interest: electric energy, extractive industry, manufacturing industry as well as to the post and telecommunications domain. The increasing rhythm in the programs of European interest and the accented weight of the investments for equipment has to be noticed. The investments in the private sector, also increasing, have been directed with priority to the acquisition of conveyance means, mainly from import. In this sector, the investments have been directed particularly to the tertiary sphere, mainly in the trade field. 3. Evolutions with impact on investments An extremely significant example in this respect might be represented by the programmatic target, of high acuity and actuality, to which the political class granted sacrificing efforts, approaches and decisions, respectively the adhesion of Romania to the West-European economic and political structures, namely the European Union and the NATO. In the context of the new geopolitical and economic situation in Europe, the adhesion to these structures represented, even if ignoring the theme, anyhow hyperbolized, of the reintegration of Romania in Europe, a desideratum of profound objective determinations, of economic and political nature, as important and much desired by anyone of the Romanians. But, the approaching modality of the adhesion issue, by Romania on one side and by the two structures, on the other side, was different. It is easily understandable that both NATO and the European Union accepted in their entourage a country Romania supposed to have economic stability, to dispose of an infrastructure well in place and, also, to have a domestic social and political tranquillity, verified and guaranteed, these being performance criteria clearly stated out, valid for all the excandidate countries. 24 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

25 These criteria imply necessarily a causality connection, namely their accomplishment leads to the adhesion which, at its turn, becomes a starting point for a better stability from the economic, political and social point of view, on which ground new developments of the structure, supra-structure and infrastructure of the country become possible. I do consider as improper the opinion of those who believed that the integration of Romania in the European Union and in NATO is a kind of panacea for all the problems and as a second thought they considered the development of the infrastructure and of the other macroeconomic activities. Let s synthetize the situation developing after the year 1990 up to date as follows: the process of economic restructuring could not, indubitably, miss as a first consequence, the occurrence and the increase of the unemployment. Out of which, new issues for Romania, unaccustomed to use, officially, the word unemployment, arouse. Simultaneously, the embryo of the inflation has been generated, as well as the one of the national currency collapse, of the pregnant emphasize of the poor quality of certain Romanian products which entry on the European markets became harder and harder, while the general economic decline became inevitable. In this context, the strategy aiming to force the entry into European Union and NATO, by political way only has been the only one option. Anyhow, Romania is today in NATO and since January 1 st, 2007, in the European Union as well. Nevertheless, guessing also what is following the two adhesions, mainly in the context of the policy promoted by the new president of Romania, a retrospective of the twenty three years laps of time we went over makes sense, even if for the archive purposes only. I do believe that it would have been more fertile to start from the fact that the dismissed labour force, becoming meantime the unemployed persons stratum, could have been utilized with increased efficiency for achieving at least one of the criteria of adhesion, respectively the development of the infrastructure in our country. The state, as owner of a number of industrial activities, such as: the production of cement, bitumen and other products required by the development of the routes, highways etc., including of the necessary equipment, could have gone, with maximum easiness, immediately after 1990, for the utilization of the dismissed labour force and improve this element of the infrastructure. What would have happened? Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

26 First of all, a series of commercial companies or autonomous administrations, which have been either privatized against questionable amounts or entered into production or financial resources difficulties, would have become very profitable through the exploitation and valorisation on the domestic market of large quantities of products. Thus, at least the cement factories form Fieni, Hoghiz, Medgidia and others would have achieved activities of high profitableness which would have been of nature to generate, through the achieved profits, income sources to the state budget. On the other hand, employing the dismissed labour force for building these elements of infrastructure would have relieved the budget of the state social security from the payment of significant amounts, in form of unemployment assistance or indemnities and other sums which are granted to the population dismissed from the labour field. Of course, in this way the transfer of a significant number of persons from the sphere of the productive activity, mining etc., which are no more efficient over the time, to the activity of the infrastructure development would have become digestible through an useful and efficient process of the labour force conversion. Under these conditions, it would have been simple that Romania takes the advantage of a particular infrastructure, of the absorption of the greatest part of the generated unemployment facing thus less socio-economic issues. In such a situation, it is easy to assume that the European Union and, mainly, NATO, interested to be present in the zone, would have appreciated that Romania has an infrastructure praise-worthy and would have considered rapidly that it is needed that Romania is to be drawn in the constellation of the EU and NATO member countries, so that the connection conditions with the Moldova Republic, Ukraine, Turkey and the Asian zone are created. But these evolutions had not been recorded as, probably, the privatization of significant sectors of the production of cement, bitumen etc., was more efficient even if the amounts received could be questioned anytime, generating thus great difficulties as far as the recovery of the infrastructure from our country is concerned. This is the reason behind the fact that we have been left lagging behind. It is easy to assume in this context that the countries of European Union have considered in different terms the acceptance of Romania within the union structures, claiming several times a possible delay in taking a positive decision. At the decision levels of the European Union, the adhesion of Romania has been considered in particular terms. The 26 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

27 respective groups of countries realized that the entry of Romania would involve substantial financial efforts from their side in order to modernize, even only the elements of the infrastructure, while Romania was not prepared to access such funds. Nobody considers that the privatization of the infrastructure is a wrong thing to do. The wrong fact is that since 1990 up to date, the infrastructure was neither privatized, nor modernized through utilising the domestic resources which the country possessed abundantly. Coming back to the main issue, that of the reform and privatization Romania, it is not even difficult to perceive that in all the countries and, mainly in those countries traversing a transition process towards the market economy, maintaining a mixt economy is a must. This is why, the privatization of certain sectors of activity must be done only in the very moment the conditions have been created so that this process is accomplished efficiently and profitably for the macroeconomic system. Unfortunately, large enterprises, some of them producing for export, have been slowly but irreversibly, left in neglect, presently recording huge debts to the state budget, to the social security budget and to other autonomous administrations. Others have been privatized in great hurry, with a limited participation of foreign investors, without a particular compensation so that the cashed amounts are not at the level implied by the performances of these companies autonomous administrations, leave apart the failed privatizations because of lack of solvency of certain foreign investors insufficiently checked up (it could be concluded that the degradation process showed by certain enterprises was the result of certain intentions meant to bring them below the zero value in order to privatize them to the ownership of the must ones). Examples are easily available, such as: IMGB, DACIA, ROMCIM, ROMTELECOM, the dramatic TEPRO, the privatizations of the siderurgical complexes Reşiţa, Galaţi, Hunedoara we see now what the evolution of these privatizations is hiding -, not to mention a series of fertilizers production works which privatization did not mean the qualitative jump meant to achieve particular productions and the recovery of the respective companies but mainly their liquidation. Many other privatizations have been, by the end of the day, veritable real estate exercises. Now, in order to escape of the crisis trauma we are trying, upon the IMF Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

28 indication, to apply to the private management or to privatize rapidly the last state administrations (enterprises) namely energy, railways, mining etc. In this context we appreciate that it is not too late to undertake the necessary steps meant to increase the attractiveness for those interested and with financial availabilities to participate to the privatization process or to invest, together with partners from our country, amounts meant to secure the balancing and, mainly, the perspective of the re-launching certain activities by means of internal and/or external investments. 4. The investments of foreign capital We mentioned above, as vital solution for stopping the economic decline and for consolidating the process of recovery, the drawing of foreign capital investments considering that there is not too much to talk about the perspective of the increase of the real autochthonous capital. The achievement of autochthonous capital investments on the expenses of banking credits cannot be taken into consideration both due to the legal regulations in force and to the high level of the interests applied and, why not, due to the crisis itself which becomes more and more visible at the level of the banking system as well. In this context, drawing foreign capital and investments is the only way for a real evolution in any economic situation, both in Romania and worldwide in general, particularly in Europe. Unfortunately, too little has been done in this domain as well and in many cases when something has been undertaken, the contrary has been achieved. The internal legislation and the fiscal policy have been the two big obstacles on the way of the foreign capital penetration on the Romanian market. After having things somehow settled and a series of foreign investors declared their intention to place investments in Romania, a new bomb exploded. In the attempt to reach a budgetary balance, not to say to rectify it, in order to bring in additional incomes, the simple arithmetical path has been chosen. It means that something has been added to the excises, the VAT has been applied to certain transactions etc., without a solid analysis and a simulation trial, in order to see the outcomes of the steps being taken. A bitter conclusion would show that: the investors are taking an extended time for analysis and try to make predictions; the steps have not the predicted effect, on the contrary, the consumption gats reduced, consequently the export diminished and the possible investors changed their minds; 28 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

29 the incomes to the state budget are coming from an exaggerated taxation system instead of coming from concrete economic incomes; the external image is affected while our anticipations are moving away; the new position of Romania as member of the European Union is changing somehow the data of the problem but we remain in charge with the obligation to prepare thoroughly the projects meant to allow the access to the funds at our disposal. Entries of commercial companies with foreign participation to the social subscribed capital over the period 1991-July 2013 Entries of Value of the total social capital subscribed expressed in : commercial companies National currency Foreign currency Number structure Ths. lei (RON) Structure Structure structure Ths. USD Ths. Eur - % - - % - - % - - % - TOTAL , ,9 100, ,9 100, ,4 100, ,1% ,5 0,3% ,8 2,5% ,1 2,6% ,6% 65153,0 0,1% ,2 1,3% ,0 1,4% ,0% 92793,2 0,1% ,8 1,0% ,5 1,1% ,2% ,9 0,2% ,3 2,1% ,9 2,1% ,9% 67893,9 0,1% ,0 0,6% ,3 0,6% ,1% ,3 0,2% ,2 1,3% ,4 1,4% ,0% ,8 0,2% ,8 0,8% ,8 0,9% ,0% ,4 0,7% ,3 1,8% ,2 1,8% ,2% ,7 1,2% ,3 2,2% ,7 2,3% ,8% ,9 1,8% ,8 2,0% ,8 2,1% ,0% ,8 4,7% ,8 3,6% ,9 3,8% ,2% ,9 3,5% ,2 2,5% ,2 2,6% ,7% ,8 4,3% ,0 3,0% ,1 3,1% ,7% ,5 8,8% ,4 7,1% ,9 7,4% ,6% ,1 7,0% ,6 7,4% ,4 7,7% ,2% ,3 6,5% ,7 7,4% ,7 7,7% ,9% ,3 7,6% ,5 7,8% ,1 7,6% ,9% ,7 14,7% ,8 13,9% ,8 12,6% ,8% ,6 15,0% ,2 11,3% ,5 11,1% ,6% ,7 17,0% ,8 12,1% ,6 12,4% ,5% ,1 9, ,0 10, ,4 9, ,4% ,6 10, ,1 7, ,6 7,9 1.I.-31.VII , ,6 3, ,5 2, ,4 2,9 Note: Column 1 represents the number of entries from the respective period The data concerning the subscribed social capital include the subscriptions of capital at the moment of the commercial companies entries from the reference period at which the capital increases have been added and the social capital subscribed by the commercial companies erased from the Commerce Register during the reference period. Data source: The National Institute of Statistics and ONRC, Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2013 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

30 It is clearer than ever that the need of capital is vital for Romania in the context of a strong reticence of the foreign capital to massively enter on the Romanian market, due to very various reasons but also due to legislation, not exactly adequate. Due to the negative impact of the crisis, the direct foreign investments in 2009 counted for 3,512,610.5 thousand euro only, for 3,914,440.6 thousand mii euro in 2010, 3,329,432.4 thousand euro in 2011 and 2,856,416.6 thousand euro in For the first seven months of the year 2013, the foreign capital investment in Romania amounted 1,066,398.4 thousand euro. The direct investment of the Romanian residents abroad decreased in 2011 as against This is why it is hard to figure the reason for which no other steps have been undertaken during the period meant to stimulate the foreign investors, in the conditions in which the social and political situation represented an additional barrier in front of those who would have dared to invest in our country. Reticence should not exist when considering the legislation of the incentives meant to attract the foreign capital and to encourage the autochthonous capital, since everything being invested in Romania through Romanian commercial companies, irrespectively the origin of the subscribed capital, represents national wealth. The sphere of the countries from which investments in Romania came narrowed very much. During the entire period after December 1989 till nowadays an amount of 36,402,939.4 thousand euro has been invested, which does not mean too much in the context where these participations do not represent in fact foreign currency payments but participations in the form of capital subscriptions, most of the times, as capital in kind. The year 2012 pointed out the fact that the investments of foreign capital, in the form of participation to the recording of new commercial companies developed slowly or are of the amplitude of a drop in the ocean. Thus, the reticence of certain traditional countries, such as the USA, which invested just a little in companies from Romania, is quite surprising. From the neighbours zone, besides Hungary, Turkey and Moldova and some countries with feeble participation, the other countries are practically absent. 30 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

31 If for the east and central-european countries, facing their own problems of the transition which they traverse themselves, a logical explanation of the phenomenon can be found out, for countries such as Greece, where the Romanian fleet and the communications system went, a low weight in the total of the foreign capital investments over all these years is of the nature to raise certain question marks. Among these countries, the Arabic countries group is detaching itself as, although they hold a high weight from the point of view of the number of registered commercial companies, mainly as self-name companies, they cumulate together a level below 3% of the invested foreign capital. This explains also a series of negative phenomena (evasion, running of money abroad, running non-essential and apparently non-profitable activities etc.). If comparing the commercial balance deficit, respectively the outrunning of the exports by the imports, with the total investments n form of capitals in commercial companies, it can be easily to see that, through an imbalanced activity, over 90% of the total investments get lost due to the practice of a totally imbalanced foreign trade. The situation is interesting also if we shall consider the mode in which the newly established commercial companies have been entered in Romania, during the period , in a territorial profile. We shall state out that in a number of districts, such as Tulcea, Vaslui, Bacău, Gorj, Buzău, Teleorman and others, these investments, in form of social capital subscribed in foreign currency to the setting up of a new company are missing or count with an extremely low level in the total of such investments. There are some exceptions, such as the Municipality, the districts Ilfov, Prahova, Timiş, Cluj, Braşov, Constanţa, which record significant participations to the capital forming through subscribing and paying shares or social parts in foreign currency but the situation is completely inconvenient in the general context submitted above. The fact that the great investors coming from developed countries are, quite often, Romanian citizens established in the respective countries should not be neglected either. Getting closed, in this way, to the native country irrespectively their motivations, is by itself praiseworthy and deserves to be encouraged but, in connection with the content and the goals of the foreign investments of capital Romania, the outcomes are far away from producing the expected effects. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

32 Meantime, it is to point out the fact that through this kind of investments Romania could not find out a source able to secure at least the maintaining if not the revival of its industrial development. If comparing the level of the foreign capital investments by participation to the establishment of commercial companies in our country with the one of the other east or central- European countries, we shall state out that Romania is placed at the tail of such a classification. This is a new proof of the fact that the problem of the mode in which this activity is re-arranged and re-directed must by rigorously considered. 5. Investments of autochthonous capital So far we have discussed about the mode in which the foreign capital investments have been made in our country. This does not mean that the drawing of the authochtonous investments must be neglected. Although the Romanian capital should have received an increased attention, in fact the investment of the autochthonous capital has been hampered because of lack of financial means and of the impossibility for certain individuals or juridical persons to participate to projects, either independently or in collaboration with outside commercial companies. Unfortunately, either from populism or from lack of expertise, since the year 1990, the march started with the left leg. For instance, the former social parts" (about 38 milliard lei at the level of the 1990, namely about five milliard US dollars) passed automatically from the production sphere (as financing source), to the cunsumption sphere. This transfer has been achieved on the ground of lack of productive activity and of stocks of products needed by the population, which had a double negative effect: first of all, the funds meant to development diminished and, secondly, a surplus of monetary mass has been generated, without cover in goods and services at the level of prices of the year The social parts existing in 1990 could have been transformed in shares, making thus the embryo of the privatization in Romania. Simultaneously, in this way, the inflation in our country would have not been stimulated by the unbalancing of the ratio between the reduced volume of goods and services, on one side, and the excessively high monetary mass available with the population on short term, at the respective moment, on the other side. 32 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

33 In this context, the legislation referring to the commercial companies, although positive in its essence, couldn t do but generate the framework for making conspicuous the free initiative and the mechanisms of the market economy which, however, in the absence of a real and substantial autochthonous capital, could not generate far-reaching developments. Maintaining over a long period a mixed structure of the economy, by the coexistence of the privat sector in the process of getting established, cvasi-exclusively represented by small and medium companies, with a state or mixed sector at the level of the large economic units subject, at this turn, of successive and difficult formulas of privatization, was not of the kind to concede, at the overall national economy, that positive trend presumed by the reforme process. On the contrary, as the time elapsed and under the impact of certain steps of economic and mainy fiscal policy, the large economic units have been de-capitalized and depreciated so that their privatization became, irrespectively the forecasted method, hard to achieve or, at the best, achievable under non-efficient terms. Simultaneously, the private sector, represented by the small and medium companies, confronted, at its turn, with the same steps, recorded, after the initial period of effervescence, a similar process of decapitalization and regress. Significant for illustrating this phenomenon is the contribution brought by the private sector to the state budget and the budget of social security, contribution which in the year 2012 counted with over 61.3% while during the first seven months of the year 2013 counted for about 61.7%. In the privatization process, the issue to apply massively to credits cannot be considered as the national currency is expensive; the real positive interests run by the commercial banks are high while the investments are not in the position to bring in incomes but within a future period. Consequently, it is to be understood why even those with great wish and expertise to participate to the privatization process are blurring the ambitions and the thoughts when perceiving the danger within such a perspective. This is why it is of maximum importance that even now, by the last hour, the privatization, reform and economic restructuring process starts from the a real analysis of the existing situation on the capital market from our country, characterized by lack of attractiveness for the foreign capital which is wished to be invested in Romania, as well as by the shortage of Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

34 financial means which all the economic agents from our county have to face. On a long term perspective it is inefficient to utilise the sums resulting from the privatization process as incomes to the state budget instead concentrating them in funds meant to secure the re-technologizing and the preparation of some commercial companies and autonomous administrations for privatization. Certainly, it is by far easier to act in this way but there is the risk that our country gets even more impoverished by financial resources able to be utilized in the privatization process. The fact that, practically, all the big privatisations have large volumes under investigation, included or opened by the Public Ministry should be mentioned as well. 6. The perspective of the investments In the context of the evolutions recorded during the period , there is the apprehension that the ship in derive named the national economy will keep on being difficult to be brought to a healthy state. In fact, the foreign investments will depend on the perspective that the new government has an anti-crisis programme for straightening out the national economy, while the domestic investments will depend on the existing resources, the exemption of taxation on the reinvested profit etc. For the immediate perspective, there is the danger that the still existing small financial reserves are consumed, the public debt increases, some components of the national wealth get reduced and depreciated on a long term basis so that the further restructuring of the national economy becomes even more difficult if not impossible. Consequently, under the circumstances of the present situation of crisis, it is compulsory to conceive and enforce a system meant to support the private sector, namely the small and medium enterprises. In this respect, taking certain steps is compulsory, such as: improving the legislation in the domain of drawing foreign capital investments, so that it offers particular facilities and governmental guaranties for those coming with major projects of interest for the national economy of Romania, the forecasted amounts for investment levelling to the order of millions of dollars; secondly, it must be taken into consideration the fact that the privatization of certain elements of infrastructure or even of certain commercial companies which, although facing financial difficulties, are representing, through securing the financing resources, a future 34 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

35 production potential, is prepared and the conditions for a real competition in their privatization are created; for the autochthonous capital creating conditions to attract the obtained profit to major investments, by means of fiscal facilities is of maximum significance; also, for stimulating the investments of autochthonous capital, the possibility of some financing, of granting credits with advantageous conditions and, mainly, succeeding to access European funds must be taken into account as well. Basically, the achievement of investments by the Romanian entrepreneurs, materialized in objectives, means generating national wealth so that there is no danger if, under judicious conditions, credits are granted. Even if these credits could not be reimbursed, if the projects were well conceived, they can be taken over and developed further on. This kind of steps must definitely be accompanied by a package of programmes aiming the increase of the labour productivity and the efficient implication of the population in useful activities, necessary and profitable both for individuals and society. It is difficult to quantify now, during full economic crisis, the mode in which the sources for investment will be allocated or the foreign ones will be attracted. The fact is that this the domain requiring the best attention in order to find out the way to get out of the crisis as well. Acknowledgement This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development , project number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/ Performance and excellence in doctoral and postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain References Anghelache, C. (2014) România Starea economică pe calea redresării, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Anghelache, C. (2013) - România Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Francis, A. (2005) Business Mathematics and Statistics 4 th edition, Editura Tehnica 2005 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

36 Titan, E. (2012) Statistica. Teorie. Aplicatii in sectorul tertiar, Editura Meteor Press *** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 1-12/2012, 1-12/2013 şi 1-7/2014 editat de Institutul Naţional de Statistică *** Comunicate de presă pe anul 2014 ale Institutului Naţional de Statistică 36 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

37 Community Acquis. Deficiencies of the Legislative Harmonisation Process. Particular Focus on the Management as Cause of Incompliance. Bazil OGLINDĂ, Assistant Professor, LL.D. Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies Abstract The purpose of this article is to make a statistical analysis regarding the reasons why some states failed to conform to the communitarian acquis. The concept of communitarian acquis is a new one for Romania, but also very important because his scope is to put our legal system in conformity with the legal system of the European Union, this is why one of the conditions from Copenhagen imposes to the candidate states to incorporate the acquis. After analyzing the jurisprudence of the European Union Court of Justice resulted that the main reason why tha states fail to comply with E.U. law is their deficient management which includes their capacity (resources) and the veto that some internal actors exercise over the government Key words: acquis, engagement, state, compliance, citiyen 1) Preliminary Considerations. Community acquis represents the body of common rights and obligations which operates as a function to approach the national legislations. 1 It constantly evolves and encompasses the totality of legal norms which govern the activity of the European Union institutions, the Community policies and actions. The elements which form the acquis are represented by all engagements undertaken by the European Union and the Member States; such engagements may have various forms. 2 The legislative harmonisationis defined as a process where an entity aligns thelegislative system to the system of another entity without having 1 I. N. Militaru, Business Law, UniversulJuridic Publishing House, Bucharest, 2013, p O. Audeoud, L'acquis communautaire, du mythe à la pratique, Revue d études comparatives Est- Ouest. Volume 33,, No , p.69, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

38 any implication in adopting the norms which it transposes. 3 This is the case of pre-accession stage where the candidate states, according to Copenhagen terms, must internalize the community acquis. Incompliance with community acquis is causedbydeficiencies deriving from the harmonisation process, pursuant to which certain norms from European law are transposed in the national law. This is a qualitative study and represents an analysis of the content of the decisions passed by the European Court of Justice. In furtherance, all cases on the dockets of the European Court of Justice shall be reviewed,whichthe 12 state that accessed to European Union in 2004, respectively in 2007 were involved in. The main theories which explain the reason why sometimes the states do not comply with the European Union law subsequent to the internalization of the community acquis are the following: the managerial approach, the deficiencies with respect to the interpretation of the European normative framework, the opposition to the European norm or the refusal to transpose it, the costs generated by the compliance, the legitimacy of the 3 A. Evans, The integration of the European Comunity and third states in Europe: A legal analysis, Clarendon Press Oxford, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

39 European norm at a certain point in time in a specific country (the acceptance degree of the norm by the citizens of that state) and the connection issue between the community norms and the norms already existing in the national law. Following the analysis of the cases and the systematization of the relevant data, the results were as shown in the chart below. One can observe that the main validated theory refers to the improper management; therefore, a detailed analysis shall be done in the following section. 2) Management Cause of Incompliance The managerial approach says that incompliance of the states is involuntary. States do not transpose the European norms because prior essential conditions for the implementation of such normsare missing. It must be mentioned that solely the directive presents relevance for our topic, as element of the derived law of the European Union. 4 Pursuant to this approach, the factors that influence incompliance refer to: the capacity of the states, the inaccurate definition of the norms and the insufficient time for internalizing the norm. The promoters of this approach 5 considered that only the first characteristics the capacity of the states may be measured from an empirical point of view. The ability of the states to act is seen as a sum of legal authority and of military, financial and human resources. On the other hand, neo institutionalism presents the capacity of state by reference to the domestic players that influence the decision making, and that may have a right of veto with respect to the decision on the implementation of a Community norm. Therefore, this hypothesis focuses on the autonomy of the government. 6 Certain domestic playersblock the decision due to costs that they may incur due to implementation of European norms. From a certain perspective, this idea might be correlated with the realistic approach on cost benefit. Therefore, we deal with two concepts: the governmental capacity which refers to financial and human resources and, on the other hand, the 4 For a detailed analysis of the notion of communitarian derived law, please see: I. N. Militaru, Business Law, UniversulJuridic Publishing House, Bucharest, 2013, p Simmons, Beth A. Compliance with International Agreements. The Annual Review of Political Science, 1998, p Tsebelis, George. Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

40 governmental autonomy which is centred on the right of veto, more or less legitimate, which some players have and pursuant to which they may block initiatives of the government. Also, it must be considered that, under the governmental capacity, the existence of resources is not sufficient. The efficiency with which the resources are used counts much more. Two descriptive examples in this regards are offered by France and Italy which are states having a great potential of resources, but which are used inefficiently; consequently, their degree of incompliance is one of the highest in European Union. The inefficiency to use resources, from a doctrinaire perspective 7, has two causes. The first cause refers to the capacity of collaboration of the state institutions and the second cause shows serious corruption issues existent at the national level when speaking of budgetary execution 8. Moreover, I would add, considering the characteristics of Romania, the poor training of human resource, which is not able to manage issues related to inter-correlated aspects regardingthe Romanian bureaucratic model and the working manner at Communitylevel, which hasnot been assumed. In this case, although the human resource exists, it cannot be used due to the lack of training and, consequently, malfunctions occur, such as a very low absorption degree of European funds. The governmental autonomy presents itself in strong connection with the players that may block the decision making process. They may be both institutional and private players with sufficient power so as to exercise the right of veto. The discussion with respect to the autonomy of the government may be the more important since the process to transpose a directive in the national law may take the form of a government ordinance or a government decision. 9 The governmental autonomy encompasses two elements. The first element refers to the ability of the executive body to control the public agenda of the legislative body so as to impose itspolical projects. The second element consists in the magnitude (size) of the legislative forum. This size is relevant as regards both the number of Members of the 7 Mbaye, Heather A. D. Why National States Comply with Supranational Law. Explaining Implementation Infringements in the European Union European Union Politics 2, 2001, p Popescu-Cruceru, Anca Sorina, Economia concurenţială în Uniunea europeană, Ed. Artifex, I. N. Militaru, Business Law, UniversulJuridic Publishing House, Bucharest, 2013, p Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

41 Parliament and the ideological currents represented in Parliament. This second element influences decisively the manner in which the information is received. In to the context of the matters analysed in this paper, this component shall influence the manner in which the normative measures adopted at European Union level are perceived. 10 Subsidiary to the cause of opposition, the administrative issues have at least equal importance when it comes to incompliance. Several cases show that even when the norms that must be transposed are not of major importance and even if the government manifests readiness to transpose them, delays or errors in transposition appear. In many of these cases, we deal with administrative malfunctions. 11 3) Conclusion. Following the analysis of 66 causes of the European Court of Justice case law, it results that the main cause of incompliance is represented by the adverse management. Therefore, not necessarily the opposition of the states or the cost for implementation generates legislative harmonisation issues, but rather the poor capacity of the states or the veto power which some of the domestic players have and use it to promote private interests. References I. N. Militaru, Business Law, Universul Juridic Publishing House, Bucharest, O. Audeoud, L'acquis communautaire, du mythe à la pratique, Revue d études comparatives Est-Ouest. Volume 33,, No , A. Evans, The integration of the European Comunity and third states in Europe: A legal analysis, Clarendon Press Oxford, 1996 Simmons, Beth A. Compliance with International Agreements. The Annual Review of Political Science, 1998, p Tsebelis, George. Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, Tsebelis, George, loc. cit, M. Bichler, (1995), 'The Case of Luxembourg', in Spyros A. Pappas, ed., National Administrative Proceduresfor the Preparation and Implementation of Community Decisions (Maastricht: European Institute of PublicAdministration), 1995, p Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

42 Mbaye, Heather A. D. Why National States Comply with Supranational Law. Explaining Implementation Infringements in the European Union European Union Politics 2, 2001, p Popescu-Cruceru, Anca Sorina, Economia concurenţială în Uniunea europeană, Ed. Artifex, 2008 M. Bichler, (1995), 'The Case of Luxembourg', in Spyros A. Pappas, ed., National Administrative Proceduresfor the Preparation and Implementation of Community Decisions (Maastricht: European Institute of PublicAdministration), Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

43 Classification of Contracts according to the New Civil Code Assoc. prof. Ioana Nely MILITARU, LL.D. Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Law Department Abstract An understanding of the notion of obligation refers to the legal relationship obligational content legal relationship which has an obligation to its contents. The obligation in terms of the legal relationship is a link obligational law under which the debtor is required to obtain a benefit to the creditor, and he is entitled to benefit due (art Civil Code). According to art Civil Code, springs obligations are: the contract, the legal act unilaterally, business management, unjust enrichment, overpayments unlawful act and any other act or fact of law binds the birth of an obligation. Key words: agreement, legal advice, sources of obligations, performance, user will, power sharing. 1. The concept of contract According to art Civil Code, the contract is defined as the agreement of wills between two or more persons with the intention to establish, modify, transmit or extinguish a legal relationship. In Romanian law concepts of contract and agreement are used with the same meaning. 2. Classification of contracts 1. After the formation, the contract may be consensual, solemn or real (art Civil Code). In Romanian law training contract is governed by the mutual consent that the rule in this matter. According to this principle,, contract is consensual when formed by simple agreement of the parties,, (art par. 2 Civil Code). The contract is solemn when its validity is subject to the fulfillment of formalities prescribed by law (art par. 3 of the Civil Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

44 Code). Solemn contract is an exception to the rule consensualismului. For valid conclusion solemn contract is required, in addition to the manifestation of will, and compliance with formal requirements prescribed by law. The contract is real when, for its validity requires good teaching a debtor (art par. 4 of the Civil Code). The actual contract is an exception to the principle of mutual consent as to its valid conclusion is necessary in addition to the manifestation of will and teaching, ie, remission property. 2. When the number of obligations to which it gives rise may be mutually binding agreement or unilateral. The contract is mutually binding obligations arising therefrom when reciprocal and interdependent. Otherwise, even if the contract is unilateral enforcement of obligations assumed by both parties (art Civil Code). Mutually binding contract gives rise to obligations for both parties, so that each part has the same time mutual rights and obligations, at the same time and creditor and debtor from the time of conclusion. Reciprocity implies that these rights and obligations are obligations that same common source contract. If, unilateral contract only one party undertakes, the other party does not, therefore, no obligation. Unilateral character is retained even when performing the contract obligations are born and borne other party, in this case, the creditor task. 3. After the aim of the parties at the conclusion of the contract can be against payment or free of charge (art Civil Code). Agreement whereby each party seeks to procure an advantage in exchange for obligations is for consideration. The advantage pursued mainly consists of a patrimony follow each other, so that the benefit of one party corresponds to the consideration for the other party. Contract by which one party seeks to procure a benefit to the other Party without any benefit in return is free of charge. Purchase a patrimony times, committing a service free of charge, without any contraechivalent pursue, is a contract free of charge. 4. As the rights and obligations (ie benefits) at the contracting parties or not known, or their scope is determined or determinable or not, the contract may be commutative or random (art Civil Code). Is commutative contract, at the time of its conclusion that there is definite rights and obligations of the parties (known) and their scope is fixed or determinable. The contract is random by nature or by will of the parties, at least one of the parties gives the chance for a win and also exposes the risk of loss, which depends on a future and uncertain event. 44 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

45 5. After the relationship between them can be contratele principal and accessories. The main contract that has independent existence, independent legal fate does not depend on the fate of another contract. The vast majority of contracts are key. The accessory contract which by its nature has no independent existence, depending on the fate of another contract principal. 6. Depending on how their conclusion, contracts may be strictly personal and ending contracts and representation. It is strictly personal contract can not be concluded only personally. In this category we include contract consulting - engineering, or the warrant. Strictly personal contracts are an exception to contracts ending by representation. The vast majority of contracts ending by representation (by proxy) they are the norm in the matter of conclusion. 7. After regulation and their legal name may be typical contracts (called) or atypical (unnamed). The typical contract that has a name established by law and regulation text. The atypical contract that has no specific regulatory and personal name. 8. By way of executing contracts may be executing at once (uno ictu) and successive performance. The execution of a contract whose execution time is involving a single supply from the one who commits (a debtor). This type of contract is called with instant execution. With successive performance contract is its execution involves several benefits staggered in time. 9. After its completion method based on negotiation, or contracts can be negotiated, adhesion and binding. Contracts are negotiated outcome of the talks, the negotiations between the parties eventual agreement on its terms without anything being imposed from outside. Adhesion contract is essential when its terms are required or are drafted by one of the parties to it or following his instructions, the other one has only to accept them as such (art Civil Code). with all the terms. For the conclusion of the contract binding conditions are required by law, the public authorities or for professional bodies. The characteristic of this type of contract is that the parties have no option on the establishment or their non-closure. 10. Once the structure of the contract can be simple or complex. Complex contract agreement is called the Civil Code - frame. Simple contract consists of a single legal operation agreement - framework is achieved through several legal operations. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

46 Contract - frame is agreement whereby the parties agree to negotiate to enter into contractual relationships or to maintain the essential elements of which are determined by it (art par. 1 Civil Code). The manner of execution of the contract - framework, in particular the term and amount of benefits and, where appropriate, their prices are set by subsequent conventions (art par. 2 Civil Code). Both in pre-contract phase, in negotiation and closure, and also during its enforcement, the contract is governed by two principles: the freedom to contract and the good faith. Contractual freedom consists in the possibility that physical and legal persons have, according to law, the possilbility to create contracts and to set up their contents. The civil code consecrates the contractual freedom as parties are free to conclude contracts and determine their contents, within the limits established by law, by public order and good morals,. The only enclosures of contractual freedom are: public orded and good morals, which are not to be trespassed by any subject of law. Good faith governs not only the entire matter of the Civil code, but also the matter of contracts. Thus, parties must act in good faith, both in the negotiation and conclusion of the contract, and during its enforcement. They cannot sweep away or limit this obligation. This is the general norm applicable to the matter of contracts. The special norm regards the mechanism of contract closure, in art. 1183, which details the obligation of good faith during negotiations and provisions sanction for bad faith conduct, that is the obligation to repair the prejudice thus caused to the other part. Parties cannot remove or limit this obligation. References Civil Code Ioana Nely Militaru, Business Law. Introduction to the legal relationship of afcaeri. Contract, Universe Publishing Law, Bucharest, 2013 Anca Popescu-Cruceru, Mircea Udrescu, Logistică şi subsisteme logistice. Interferenţe juridice în logistica firmei, Ed. Tritonic, 2013 Bazil Oglinda, Dreptul afacerilor. Teoria generala. Contractul conform NCC si NCPC, Ed. Universul Juridic, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

47 Evaluation of Corporate Governance Influence on Performance of roumanian Companies Ph. D Professor Georgeta VINTILǍ Ph.D.Student Floriniţa DUCA The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania Abstract The main purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the corporate governance mechanism on financial performance of the company. Previous research, largely conducted using international data, has suggested that better governed firms outperform poorer governed firms in a number of key areas. In this paper the authors studied the correlation between corporate governance, measured as an index of corporate governance and corporate performance on a representative sample on Bucharest Stock Exchange listed companies in Romania. Empirical study results are partially consistent with those of previous studies in the literature. Key words: corporate governance, financial performances, size, CEO duality, leverage J.E.L.: C10, G10, G30, G Introduction Corporate governace is a the framework of rules and practices by which a board of directors ensures accountability, fairness, and transparency in a company's relationship with its all stakeholders ( Corporate governance refers to the way in which a corporations is directed, administered, and controlled. Corporate governance concerns the relationships among the various internal and external stakeholders involved as well as the governance processes designed to help a corporation achieve its goals. Of prime importance are those mechanisms and controls that are Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

48 designed to reduce or eliminate the principal-agent problem. (Baker and Anderson, 2010) Corporate Governance is concerned with holding the balance between economic and social goals and between individual and communal goals. The corporate governance framework is there to encourage the efficient use of resources and equally to require accountability for the stewardship of those resources. The aim is to align as nearly as possible the interests of individuals, corporations and society.( Cadbury, 2000). Financial performance enables Measuring the results of a firm's policies and operations in monetary terms. These results are reflected in the firm's return on investment, return on assets, value added, etc. ( The relationship between corporate governance and financial performance incited both academic world and policymakers in recent years. There exists a well number of evidence of a link between corporate governance practices and firm performance. But the empirical studies mainly focus on specific dimensions or attributes of corporate governance like board structure and composition; the role of non-executive directors; other control mechanisms such as director and managerial stockholdings, ownership concentration, debt financing, executive labor market and corporate control market; top management and compensation; capital market pressure and short-termism; social responsibilities and internationalization. Gompers et al (2003) classify 24 governance factors into five groups: tactics for delaying hostile takeover, voting rights, director/officer protection, other takeover defenses, and state laws. They use Investor Responsibility Research Centre (IRRC) data and findings show that firms with stronger shareholders rights have higher firm value, higher profits, higher sales growth, lowest capital expenditures, and made fewer corporate acquisitions. Javed and Iqbal(2007) investigated whether differences in quality of firm-level corporate governance can explain the firm-level performance in a cross-section of companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange. They analysed the relationship between firm-level value as measured by Tobin s Q and total Corporate Governance Index (CGI) and three subindices: Board, Shareholdings and Ownership, and Disclosures and Transparency for a sample of 50 firms. The results indicate that board composition and ownership and shareholdings enhance firm performance, 48 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

49 whereas disclosure and transparency has no significant effect on firm performance. 2. Data and Methodology The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of corporate governance on liquidity. The data were sourced from the Annual Reports and Accounts of the random sample of 10 firms listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange over the interval. Analysis does not include the companies operating in financial sector due to their different financial structures. Measuring corporate governance In order to evaluate the quality of corporate governance of roumanian companies, corporate governance assessment model was created. The weighting is in the construction of index is based on subjective judgments. The assigned priorities amongst and within each category is guided by empirical literature. The model consists of four sets of factors (Access to information, Board Structure, Shareholders' rights, The existence of advisory committees) defining the quality of corporate governance. The maximum score a company can get is 21, which is obtained by summing up all points in each segment. Size Size is considered a key factor that can influence the financial structure of the firm. Firm size has been suggested to be an important variable related to the leverage ratios of the firm. The variable Size of Firm is measured as logarithm of total assets. Leverage As it can be seen in the literature, various definitions of leverage exist. All these characterizations of leverage revolve around some form of debt ratio. The definitions depend on whether market value or book values are used. In addition, definitions also depend on whether short term debt, long-term debt or total debt is used. Firms have several types of assets and liabilities and there can be further adjustments made to the definition. Leverage: Represents the value of debt divided by book value of total asset. Return on asset measuring the operating profitability of a (nonfinancial) firm, expressed as a percentage of the operating assets. ROA indicates a firm's ability to efficiently allocate and manage its resources but ignores the firm's liabilities.( Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

50 The relation between corporate governance and return on asset(roe) is estimated using the fixed effect panel regression. Our empirical model is specified as: ROE = β0 + β1*cgi + β2*size + β3*leverage 3. Results and discussion Descriptive analysis are presented in Table 1. Table 1- Descriptive statistics of the variables in the study ROA CGI Leverag e Size Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev Table 1 provides a summary of the descriptive statistics of the dependent and explanatory variables. As shown in Table 1, average return on asset of the firms listed in Bucharest Stock Exchange and reviewed in scope of the analysis is The mean leverage of the firms is with a maximum of The average corporate governance index (CGI) is , with a standard deviation of The average on size is with a maximum of Results of regression analysis Table 2: Results of Regression Analysis Dependent Variable: ROA Method: Panel Least Squares Total panel (balanced) observations: 174 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. IGC LEVERAGE SIZE C R-squared Durbin-Watson stat Adjusted R-squared.1906 F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

51 The results of estimating equation are reported in Table 2.The model explains almost 20% of variation in return on asset, with significant F- statistic. Thus, we can say that based on p-values, in our model for listed companies, leverage and size is statistically significant, is 0.000(sig. < 5%) and (sig. <10%). This is consistent with the argument that managers of highly-levered firms face greater levels of accountability and need to increase operating efficiency in order to be able to timely discharge the debt obligation. The index of corporate governance is positiv correlated with return on asset (0.2485; Table 2) but it is statistically insignificant. Conclusion Aim of this research was to explore the impact of corporate governance on return on asset. This research observed a 29 firms listed over the interval at the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Beside corporate governance variable the analysis included some other variables such as leverage and size. The study contributes to the current corporate governance literature by providing evidence of a relationship between governance and performance. However, the results of this study are subject to some limitations. Corporate governance is a vast concept and is difficult to measure with objectivity and hence measure used in this study may be subjective and not a comprehensive measure. References Baker, H. and Anderson, R., Corporate Governance: A Synthesis of Theory, Research, and Practice, Cadbury, A., Global Corporate Governance Forum, World Bank, Coles, J. W., V. B. McWilliams, and Sen N. (2001) An examination of the relationship of governance mechanisms to performance, Journal of Management, 27. Duca, F., Does Corporate Governance Affect Firm Liquidity? Empirical Evidence from Romania, Romania statistical review suplement, 10/2014. Gompers, P., Ishii L., and Metrick A., Corporate Governance and Equity Prices, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Javaid, A. Y., and Iqbal, R., The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indicators and Firm Value: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Working Papers and Research Reports, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

52 The Linear Regression Model for setting up the Futures Price Prof. Mario G.R. PAGLIACCI PhD University of Perugia, Italy Prof. Janusz GRABARA PhD Politechnik University of Czestochowa, Poland Lecturer Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Cristina SACALĂ PhD Student Vasile Lucian ANTON Master student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract To realize a linear regression, we have considered the computation method for futures prices that, according to economic culture, is based on the rate of the supporting asset and internal/external interest ratios, and also on the time period until maturity. The market price of a futures instrument is influenced by the demand and supply, that is the number of units traded within a certain period. Key words: regression, quotation, futures, investment, capital The US dollar started also to regain its popularity, getting slightly appreciated as against the Euro.. On a bi- dimensional graphic basis, we can thus examine the existing connection between the futures price and the volume of 52 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

53 transactions, respectively the European interest rate. According to the graphics, it seems that no direct individual connection exists between the considered variables as they have merely the aspect of clouds of points. The OLS estimate is going to be done through Quick - Estimate Equation, with the commanding line: Pretf c Euribor UsdLibor Volum Dependent Variable: PRETF Method: Least Squares Date: 10/27/09 Time: 18:15 Sample: Included observations: 206 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

54 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C EURIBOR USDLIBOR VOLUM R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) In order to validate the model, we have to traverse the following stages: 1. The T test for each parameter separately. According to the probabilities very close to zero from the column Prob., all the parameters are significant. 2. The value of R2, which should be as close as possible to 1, or at least over 80%. In the present case, it counts for 81.4%, so that the model is a good one. 3. Checking the hypothesis of the errors independence, this implies that the errors must be not correlated in any way. This is achievable on the basis of the test Durbin Watson, which as absolute value should be placed as close as possible to 2. In the submitted case, the value is merely close to zero, counting for , so that it indicates the existence of a positive auto-correlation which we shall try to eliminate further on. The analysis of the auto-correlation There is a series of hypotheses issued on the subject of a linear regression model and of its components, out of which the most significant are referring to the series of errors. Out of them, the first one which we shall test is the errors independence hypothesis, according to which the errors must be statistically independent, implying a covariance equal to zero between any two errors e; and ej. In principle, in order to detect an autocorrelation there are both graphical tests and statistical tests which can confirm the validation of this hypothesis. 54 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

55 The analysis of the auto-correlation of first order is achieved through introducing a new line of regression between the errors series at the present time and the one of the past moment, having the form: where vt is the normal distribution of mean zero and variant σ 2 Through the command genr in Eviews we safeguard the column of residuals in a new series of data, which we shall call: rez: genr rez = resid. Based on the new column, the checking of the between the current residuals and the delayed ones, by means of a graphic of scat type, using the command: scat rez(-l) rez. Out of this graphic it is clearly observable a positive dependence approximately linear between the rows of errors from the different time Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

56 moments. Further on, we shall achieve the simple regression between them in order to point out the connection existing and its parameters, through the command ls: ls rez rez(-l). The results listed by Eviews will be the following: Dependent Variable: REZ Method: Least Squares Date: 11/01/09 Time: 17:14 Sample (adjusted): Included observations: 205 after adjustments The model is consistent enough, according to the criterion R 2, which has a value close to 0.7, indicating thus that a percentage of approximately 70% of the residuals variation at moment t is explained by the residuals at the previous moment, t-1. Meanwhile, the Student test proves the significance of the parameter associated with the independent variable introduced in model. We can conclude that there is a linear connection between two residuals at successive moments of time, consequently, the regression equation which we obtain will be: The obtained coefficient, equal to 0.829, bears the significance of a correlation coefficient between the errors at successive moments of time and obviously it is very close to 1, indicating thus the presence of a positive correlation between them. The validity of the coefficient is sustained also by the high value of the test t, along with a P-value null. A modality to visualize the dependence between errors consists of realizing a graphic directly on the residuals series. In the following image the representation of Actual, Fitted, Residuals, of the observed values, 56 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

57 adjusted and of the residual is shown. The last graphic, the one referring to the residuals, shows their shifting as against the mean. The adjusted values are placed close enough to the observed values as show by the red and green lines which evaluate in an almost parallel manner. As far as the position of the errors as against the average value, we observe that there are deviations large enough, mainly during the first half of the analysed period. Through the Residual Plot of the table, we observe the residual values as well as the zone where they should be placed if the regression is good from the variant point of view. The more values exist outside the punctuated line, the more increased is the errors dispersion. It is obvious that, during the first half of the period, the residuals values are placed, from time to time, outside the delimited zone, particularly in the first 20 recordings. We figured in the project only a part of the Residual Plot, because of lack of space (there are 200 recordings all together) but a visualization of the entire graphic shows a subsequent existence of some values even more shifted then the ones being submitted now, somewhere between the recordings Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

58 The correction of the model from the point of view of the errors autocorrelation can be achieved through two modalities. By the first one, we shall create a dynamic model where the dependent variable will be written as a linear regression depending on the independent variable as well as on their values at the previous moment of time, generating thus a lad of order 1: 58 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

59 The regression will be created in Eviews through the command: ls pretf c euribor euribor(-1) usdlibor usdlibor(-1) volum volum(-1) pretf(- 1). The outcomes are the following: Dependent Variable: PRETF Method: Least Squares Date: 11/01/09 Time: 17:53 Sample (adjusted): Included observations: 205 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C EURIBOR EURIBOR(-I) USDLIBOR USDLIBOR(-I) VOLUM E VOLUM(-1) -8.28E E PRETF(-1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R S.D. dependent var squared S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) The dynamic model newly created, as well as the solvency variables, seem to be pretty good. It has a R square approximately equal to 1 (0.9719) so that it is extensive from the point of view of the establishment, a test F with a null probability and, consequently, at least one of the coefficients is significantly different of zero. As regards the independent variables being considered, part of them only can be accepted from the point of view of the test t but, together, they are generating a model complete enough. We notice that the smallest probability of the test t is associated with the futures price of the pervious moment, consequently, we can state out that its present value depends to a certain extent on its passed value. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

60 REZ2 Now the residuals values are looking like a cloud of points, the fact that the linear dependence which has been observed on the basic regression becoming obvious. The new value of the test DW is close to 2, counting for 1.98, so that the statistical test of speciality as well confirms that the auto-correlation has been eliminated. We can conclude that the dynamic model is by far better from this point of view as comparatively with the static model but not from the perspective of the included variables. We could try to reconsider the model by eliminating the variables which were considered as insignificant and, consequently, including only the constant, the futures price of the previous moment and, possibly, the transacting volume. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C PRETF(-1) VOLUM E R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) At a first attempt, the constant seems to be insignificant but, in exchange, the significance associated with the transacting volume is increasing. Also, in exchange, the improvement of DW is visible. But 60 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

61 retaking the regression in exchange is accentuating purely and simply the correlation between the futures price at the present moment and the one of the previous moment, a connection known also from the economic theory, on which basis the specialists are formulating technical analyses. Consequently, we cannot eliminate the influence of the historical values since the information about the past prices of the respective contract are reflected in the market value presently on which ground the future price will be formed as well, of course in relation with other factors of the transacting framework or of the international economic and financial framework. Another procedure to eliminate the auto-correlation is known as Cochrane Orcutt and develops as follows: In a first stage the coefficients of the regression equation are estimated, ignoring the possible presence of a linear dependence between the values of the residuals. Thus, we obtain the estimates for the parameters from the regression, as well as a column of residuals, which column has been already saved previously within the project under the name of Rcz. In the second stage, an equation of regression is built up based on which we obtain an estimate for p. Finally, in the third stage, an auxiliary regression is built up as follows: In the present situation, it has to be applied for three dependent variables. We shall apply the procedure in Eviews, through the command: ls pretf c euribor usdlibor volum ar(1) And we shall obtain : Dependent Variable: PRETF Method: Least Squares Date: 11/01/09 Time: 18:14 Sample (adjusted): Included observations: 205 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 11 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C EURIBOR USDLIBOR VOLUM E Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

62 AR(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted AR Roots.99 The model is a significant one, according to the test F and bears a high degree of determination, according to the R squared very close to 1. As regards the coefficients, their significance is lower than in the original regression, the two interests rates having probabilities associated with the test t high enough. In the regression equation, the term AR(1) will appear as a constant, set up by this estimate. Through the test t the term appears as being significant from the statistical, with an associated probability relatively null. The regression equation will have, consequently, the form:. The DW test is again close to 2, counting for 1.97, and signals the elimination of the auto-correlation, while the significance of the parameters associated with the independent variables is higher comparatively with the dynamic model. Through this model we cover the auto-regressivity of the time series as well as the influences exerted by the other considered variables. 2. The analysis of the homoskedasticity The homoskedasticity is that hypothesis assuming a constant variable for the residuals raw. On the opposite situation the phenomenon of heteroskedasticity is to be considered, which presence in model should be emphasized and corrected. In this respect, we apply the test White, having as null hypothesis the presence of the homoskedasticity i (at = o 2 ) and, as alternative hypothesis, its absence. For the present case, the White test is implying the building up of a new model of regression in order to set up the squares of residuals, which takes into account, as independent variables, the Xs and their squares, as a result of the estimation of the residuals on the basis of the initial multifactorial regression equation. In this respect, we shall verify the Fisher test, which null hypothesis should be accepted in order to avoid any 62 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

63 connection between errors and the independent variables included into the equation. The regression proposed through the White test will have the following form: White Heteroskedasticity Test: According to the OLS estimates obtained, the regression line will have the form: rt 1 = Xi,t Xu X2,t X2,t *10" 5 X3,t *IO" 7 X3,t 2. The significance test t concerning the coefficients have mixed validities, some of the parameters being valid (such as those corresponding to Euribor A 2 or to UsdLibor A 2) having a un P-value below 5%, while the others are, most of them, uncertain, with a P-value exceeding 10%. The highest values for this probability have been recorded for the coefficients concerning the volume. As far as the test F is concerned, which aims the bonnity of the entire model, a calculated value big enough for this one, namely 13.72, to which a null probability of rejection is corresponding, so that we can accept the Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

64 alternative hypothesis of the test F, respectively that there is a least one coefficient differing from zero. For a small P-value associated to the test F, we reject also the null hypothesis of the White test and, consequently, the heteroskedasticity is present. For eliminating the heteroskedasticity, we should build up a new regression model, for which both terms of the initial equation are divided through one of the independent variables performing thus a new analysis of the White test. We could try to apply this test also on the model which we have identified by the auto-correlation analysis as being better than the static model of linear multifactorial regression, namely the dynamic model or the auto-regressive one. The only one out of these models for which the probability of the test F gives a somehow higher value, indicating thus a possibility to accept the null hypothesis, would be the dynamic model with the White test applying for cross terms as well, where the respective P-value will be of 28%, according to the following abstract: White Heteroskedasticity Test: The normality checking In order to verify whether the series of residuals is normally distributes, we apply to the representation of the normality histogram, which should look similar to the Gauss bell, at the basic indicators of this one, skewness and kurtosis and, particularly to the value of the Jarque-Bera test. The Jarque Bera test has as null hypothesis the idea that the distribution of a series of errors is a normal one and, implicitly, its opposite is an alternative hypothesis. According to a probability of rejection almost null, we should have to accept this last hypothesis and allege that the series has not a normal distribution. Due to a kurtosis superior to 3, we might say that the curve is leptokurtic and, meantime, asymmetrical as the skewness is indicating. The absence of the normality for a series cannot be corrected. In fact, the economic theory alleges that the financial series are tending to have distribution mainly leptokurtic and thin instead of a normal one, a situation in which the errors resulting from the series of futures price which we have used in the model are placing themselves. 64 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

65 4. The economic interpretation of the regression coefficients Reverting to the aspect of the regression equation initially proposed. The coefficients estimated through the OLS method have the following significance: the slope of the derivate equation in connection with one of the independent variables or a quantifier of the degree of modification of the futures price in connection with this one, under caeteris paribus conditions. Thus, if Euribor increases by a percentage point ( we remind that it is measured in percentages, as well as Libor), the futures price would change by futures points, provided that the other variables keep on remaining constant. If Libor increases by one percentage point, the futures price would increase by points while if the volume increases with an unit (corresponding to contracts transacted on the market), the futures price would change in an up-warding sense by points. All the three coefficients are positive so that the slopes of the lines resulting as a consequence of the derivation would be up-warding. 5. Conclusions During the progress of this study, we tried to find out the most interesting as well as the most correct model in order to explain the fluctuation of the futures price on a given market. Ai have noticed that there is a linear relation between this one and the support exchange rate, which might be approximated through an ordinary line passing through the origin of the axes system (having the constant zero). We have decided to utilize a multifactorial regression using as independent variables the interests on the domestic and external markets as well as the transacting volume, in the attempt to explain their influence on the dependent variable. The model proved to be good as far as the significance tests of the parameters (Student and Fisher) are concerned, as well as determination degree but, in exchange, it did not satisfied the hypotheses concerning the errors as the autocorrelation, the heteroskedasticity and the kurtosis in excess remained present. If the auto-correlation has been eliminated by introducing into the model the value of the futures price from the previous moment, generating thus a dynamic or auto-regressive model and supporting the theory that the past information are recognized in the market value of the asset of the present moment, the heteroskedasticity kept on remaining present for these models as well and the series has been proved as leptokurtic through the Jarque-Bera test. Even the attempt to achieve a logarithmic model did not verify the errors hypothesis. Irrespectively all these facts, the interest rates Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

66 as well as the demand for assets on the futures market have a visible influence on the contract price, a conclusion which is supported by the opinions of speciality as well. Acknowledgement This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development , project number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/ Performance and excellence in doctoral and postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain References Futures price and volume: Euribor: Exchange rate: Libor: 66 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

67 The Production Indices in Agriculture Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Artifex University of Bucharest Daniel DUMITRESCU PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract This paper outlines the main evolution of Romanian agriculture in the recent period. Romania is holding an overall middle position in the European Union, if considering the outputs of agriculture branch, but a better position from the viewpoint of resources, which encourages future developments and favorable evolutions. The research is focused mainly on the analysis of agricultural production by types of culture, of animal breeding, and size of agricultural exploitations. Key words: agriculture, harvest, outcome, culture, breeding As well known, Romania is one of countries of the most pronounced agrarian profile from the European Union. Unfortunately, this character does not mean implicitly neither a corresponding contribution of the agriculture to the GDP forming, as already mentioned previously, nor a high level of efficiency as productivity level resulting both out of the comparison of this sector with other sectors of our economy and, mainly, with the yields for various cultures and animal species recorded by the other European countries. The same situation, if not even more underlined, is stated out when considering the yields for potatoes and rape, as well as for sun-flower, although the last one is not a significant culture for the other EU member states. Extremely significant are the statistics 1 regarding the agricultural potential of the greatest agricultural producers from the EU, among which Romania is placed as well, considered from the point of view of the place and weight held within the total EU, as cultivated surfaces and production. 1 Anghel M.G. şi alţii (2012). Production and Trade of Goods, Revista Română de Statistică Supliment Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

68 Thus, for wheat, Romania is holding the 4 th place from the point of view of the cultivated surface, with a weight of 8% in total, accounting together with France, Germany and Poland, almost 50% of the total cultivated surface of the total EU. But as far as the wheat production is concerned, Romania is holding the 7 th place only, by three places lower that in the case of the surface, respectively with a weight of 3.7% of the total production of wheat of the EU. Together with France, Germany, Great Britain, Poland, Italy and Denmark, the weight in the production counts for over 75%. The corn production is by far more interesting, as Romania holds as surface, the 1st place with a weight of over a quarter (27.4%) in the total surface cultivated by the EU member states. From the point of view of the corn production, we are holding the 2 nd place only, after France, with 13.8%, whereof a gap as against the weight of over 50% in the cultivated surface. In 2013 and 2014, we record two different moments. In 2013 we achieved harvests, maybe the highest after 2000, while in 2014 the harvests have recorded low levels, due to the meteo factor. Animal effectives recorded by certain EU states, in thousand heads - Country Bovines Porcines Sheeps + Goats Romania Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Holland Poland Portugal Great Britain Spain Sweden Hungary Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

69 Data source: Eurostat, processed with current data regarding Romania, for 2013 A similar situation is stated out in respect of the animal effectives. Contrary to the situation in the past, when Romania counted among the first countries from Europe from the point of view of the effectives of bovines, porcine, ovine and goats, presently, with its 2 million five hundred thousand bovine heads, Romania is slightly outrun by Belgium and in a significant manner, by France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Poland and Holland. As to the porcine effectives, Romania is holding the 9th place only, after Germany, Spain and France. We manage to maintain ourselves on the 4th position of the top for ovine and goats only, after Spain, Great Britain and Greece. The evolution of the agricultural branch in 2014 comparatively with 2013, is showing a slight increase, as a result of the increase of the same value recorded by the vegetal production, a little lower increase of the animal production and an increase of 2.7% of the agricultural services which, however, are not holding a significant weight. The weight of the vegetal production in 2014, counting for 53.5%, is noticeably lower than the average of the years The fact that the weight of the animal production is however low, as comparatively with the potential of our country in this respect, has to be emphasized. On the other hand, splitting the land into small parcels and lack of any crop rotation whatsoever, lack of a proper quality seed as a general feature, are the factors counting as determinants for both the poor crops and their poor quality. Out of the approximately 4 million of exploitations (4.3 million in 2005 and 3.87 million in 2013), over 98% are representing exploitations characterized, according to the EU standards, as small and very small. They are utilizing, as ownership or other forms, over 60% of the agricultural surface of the country, with a production estimated as average per exploitation to less than 8 ESU. For those who, maybe, are not familiar with, we recall that ESU represents a unit o stable economic size at European level, through a relatively complex process of estimating the value of different agricultural products (both vegetal and animal), namely an ESU equals to 1200 euro. Counting for a very low number, of 0.1% only, the large agricultural exploitations of over 40 ESU per unit, generally agricultural exploitations Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

70 with legal personality, are holding and utilizing over a quarter of the agricultural surface. The evolution of the agricultural branch production until June 2013 (the average of the years = 100) Data source: Statistical researches *) Provisional data MADR The average economic size of an agricultural exploitation in Romania levels up to approximate 1 ESU which, from this point of view, is placing us behind all the other member states, this implying also the structure resulting out of grouping the agricultural exploitations in accordance with their size (see the following tables). The typology of the Romanian agricultural exploitation shows the number of the agricultural exploitations specialized for field cultures and mixed cultures is prevailing, as they are amounting 36-37% in the frame of the generic term of the vegetal production, as well as the 40% specialized in the animal breeding. Another feature of the Romanian agricultural exploitations is given by carrying on combined activities of vegetal culture and animal breeding, their weight counting for about 20%. References` Anghel M.G. şi alţii (2012). Production and Trade of Goods, Revista Română de Statistică Supliment Anghelache, C. (2014) România Starea economică pe calea redresării, Editura Economică, Bucureşti 70 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

71 Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiză economică utilizarea modelelor în studiul economiei României, Revista Română de Statistică, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Anghelache C., Isaic-Maniu AL., Mitruţ C., Voineagu V. (2011) - Sistemul conturilor naţionale: sinteze şi studii de caz, Editura Economică, Bucureşti *** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 1-12/2012, 1-12/2013 şi 1-7/2014 editat de Institutul Naţional de Statistică *** Comunicate de presă pe anul 2014 ale Institutului Naţional de Statistică Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

72 Taxation of Income from Investments Assoc. prof. dr. Raluca Andreea MIHALACHE Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract Investment income comprises the law 571/2003, as amended: dividends, taxable income from interest, income from transfer of securities represented by any securities, units in a unit trust or other financial instrument such qualified by CNVM including derivatives and shares, income from operations of sale of foreign currency forward contract and other similar operations and income from the liquidation of a legal person. Are considered interest income, interest on its bonds, interest earned on deposits, including certificates of deposit, amounts received as interest on loans and other revenues from debt. Revenues in the form of proceeds obtained from the sale of foreign currency forward contract, and any other such operations are favorable exchange differences resulting from these operations, the moment of operation and highlighting the customer's account. Annual net income is determined as the difference between gains and losses during that year from such operations. Annual net income is calculated based on the income statement. Key words: tax system, fiscality, fiscal reglementation, fiscal system, accounting methods J.E.L.: H20, H32, G3 According to the Romanian Fiscal Code, art. 41 lit. b) and lit. c) among the categories of income subject to income tax revenues are summarized as follows: an income from self-employment; a salary income; an income from rental and leasing; an investment income; a retirement income; an income from agricultural activities; an income from prizes and gambling; 72 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

73 an income from transfer of property; an income from other sources. Investment income comprises according to the Romanian Fiscal Code 1 : a) dividends; b) taxable income from interest; c) gains from transfer of securities represented by any securities, units in a unit trust or other financial instrument so classified by the NSC, including derivatives and shares; d) income from operations of sale of foreign currency forward contract and other similar transactions; e) income from the liquidation of a legal person. Are considered interest income, interest on its bonds, interest earned on deposits, including certificates of deposit, amounts received as interest on loans and other revenues from debt. In similar operations contracts for the sale of currency futures include the following derivative financial instruments traded in the market to understanding (OTC) and defined as such in the legislation governing these transactions: - Foreign exchange swap - Interest rate swap - Exchange options - Interest-rate options. The gain or loss on the transfer of securities other than equity securities in investment trusts and shares, representing positive or negative difference between the sales price and the purchase price on the types of securities, as the case with reduced costs transaction. For transactions with shares received by individuals free of charge, in the mass privatization program (PPM), the purchase price to the first trading will be assimilated with their nominal value. For transactions with shares bought at preferential price under the stock option plan, the gain is determined as the difference between the selling price and preferential purchase price minus transaction costs. In case of transfer of ownership of shares in open-end funds, the gain is calculated as the positive difference between the redemption price and the 1 OUG no. 109/2009 amending Law no. 571/2003 regarding the Romanian Fiscal Code, as amended and supplemented, published in the MO, Part I, no. 689 of 13 October 2009, with effect from 1 January 2010, art. 65 para. (1) Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

74 purchase price or subscription. The redemption price is the price that the investor is entitled to withdraw from the fund. The purchase price or subscription price paid by the investor for the purchase individual of a unit. The purchase price of a security, other than the title of participation in trusts is the price determined and revealed an intermediary for that title, held by a client, every symbol, plus costs, under the rules approved by order of the Minister of public Finance and the President CNVM, according to the Tax Code,. art. 67 para. (8), as amended and supplemented. The purchase price for the determination of the tax on the gain from the transfer of securities is determined by applying the weighted average price method. The order of sale of securities holdings relative to the symbol, recorded chronologically by date of acquisition, from the oldest to the newest holding holding. The redemption price is the price that the investor is entitled to withdraw from the Fund and consists of net asset value the day before the application for redemption, less any redemption fees. The purchase price or subscription price paid by the investor, individual, and consists of the net asset value plus the purchase fee, if applicable. In case of transfer of ownership of shares, the gain from the alienation of shares is determined as the positive difference between the sales price and the nominal value or purchase price. Since the second transaction, the nominal value will be replaced with the purchase price, which includes expenditure on fees, taxes and similar charges for the transaction documented. Determination of the gain is carried on the trade date, based on the contract between the parties. Annual net income is determined as the difference between gains and losses recorded during that year as a result of trading securities other than shares and securities of closed companies. Annual net income is calculated based on the income statement. If revenues as a result of holding shares closed-end investment funds, the obligation to calculate, withhold and pay tax on income as dividends at: investment company, if not entered into a management agreement; the management company, where the firm has signed a management contract with the company. For fiscal year transactions with securities other than shares and securities of closed companies, each intermediate or payer of income, as appropriate, shall: 74 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

75 - Calculation of annual earnings or annual loss transactions during the year for each taxpayer; - Transmission of information on annual gain or loss for the year and calculated and withheld as tax prepayment, written by him, until February 28 of the following year for which the calculation is made. Revenues in the form of proceeds obtained from the sale of foreign currency forward contract, and any other such operations are favorable exchange differences resulting from these operations, the moment of operation and highlighting the customer's account. Annual net income is determined as the difference between gains and losses during that year from such operations. Annual net income is calculated based on the income statement. For transactions of the fiscal year, each intermediate or payer of income, as appropriate, shall: - Calculation of annual earnings or annual loss transactions during the year for each taxpayer; - Transmission of information on annual gain or loss for the year and calculated and withheld as tax prepayment, written by him, until February 28 of the following year for which the calculation is made. Taxable income realized from the liquidation of a legal person is surplus to share capital contribution of the individual beneficiary. In the case of foreign exchange forward contracts (contracts for the sale of foreign currency forward), the taxable amount is the favorable difference between the forward rate at which the transaction is concluded and the spot rate or forward under the contract on which the transaction closes market at maturity multiplied by the operation opposite to the sum contract and evidenced in the customer's account at the close of the transaction. In the case of foreign exchange swaps, the taxable amount is the difference between being favorable exchange spot and forward transactions used, multiplied by the amount of the contract resulting from these transactions at the close of the transaction and recorded in the account of the customer. If interest rate swap contracts, the taxable amount is the difference between the interest favorable fixed interest rate and variable interest rate specified in the contract multiplied by the notional amount of the contract resulting from these transactions at the close of the transaction and highlighted in the customer's account. If the exchange option, the taxable amount is the difference between the current favorable exchange rate to buy or sell and exchange in the market undergoing the operation opposite - sale or purchase contract Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

76 multiplied by the amount resulting of these operations when exercising the option and highlighted in the customer's account. The interest rate option, the taxable amount is the favorable difference between the variable interest rate charged and agreed fixed in the contract, resulting in the performance and highlighted option in the client's account. In case of dissolution without liquidation of a legal person transmission company universal heritage by the sole real estate in the financial statements will be measured at fair value or market price. The tax base for dissolution without liquidation of a legal person shall be determined as follows: a) determining the amount of the difference between the amounts of the assets and liabilities of the company; b) determining the excess amount determined under section a) over social capital contributions of the individual beneficiary. According to the data from the Bucharest Stock Exchange SA (BVB) evolution of total revenue and net profit both in annual values, as well as annual values calculated quarterly on the last previous four quarters are shown in the graphs below: Chart - Total revenue and net profit (annual values) Sursa: Chart - Total revenue and net profit (annual values calculated quarterly on the last previous four quarters) Sursa: 76 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

77 References Mihalache, R.A. (2010), Fiscalitatea pe piaţa de capital din România, Editura Renaissance, Bucureşti *** - Legea nr. 571/2003 coroborată cu HG 44/2004 privind Codul fiscal, ultima actualizare conform cu Ordonanţa Guvernului nr. 19 din 23 aprilie Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

78 The Impact of Unemployment on Older Population in the North-East Region Assoc. prof. Elena BUGUDUI PhD Post Phd.University of Economics Bucharest Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract This paper aims to highlight the impact of labor supply for the population aged years looking for a job in the North East. It uses multifactor regression model, with the exogenous variables, the rate of job vacancies fielobds. The analysis shows that although the Romanian population is aging and this trend continues, the elderly are not in the demand for skills and abilities to employers. They accept jobs that do not require a specific qualification, seasonal jobs, poorly paid. Continuous vocational training policies to meet the needs of those who do not have the skills required in the current economic situation. Key words: unemployment, regression, labor market, job vacancies Introduction We assist in reducing the share of young population, aged 0-14 years, from 23.7% (in 1990) to 15.0% (in 2012) and the growth of the elderly, 65 years and older, from 10.3 % (in 1990) to 15.0% (in 2012). Adults, years increased steadily from 66% (in 1990) to 70% (in 2012). For the first time in four decades, from 1 January 2012 the population share of young population is equal to the share of elderly population (15.0%),as shown in a study by the National Bank of Romania. The specialists considers that the process of demographic aging of the population, which was quite brisk in recent decades, will make 2030, each 5th inhabitant of Romania will enter the category "elderly". Change over time in the number and structure of the population, leading to changes in the labor market. In Romania, due to structural changes, new professions appeared and disappeared traditional professions. In Romania, due to structural changes, new professions appeared and disappeared traditie.în profession with many companies, due to 78 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

79 restructuring, there was a reduction in the number of jobs available, but new ones have appeared under new economic conditions. The problem of population decline - quantitative difficulty - is accompanied by a qualitative difficulty, according to the study Talent Shortage in 2011, conducted by ManpowerGroup, which reveals that one in three employers worldwide have difficulty filling vacancies, the lack of personnel who possess the appropriate skills (up three percentage points from 2010). The recession has led to specific behaviors that deeply affect both employers' intentions and those of people who aspire to a job. The elderly are most affected by changes in the labor market, considering the skills, their skills, and availability of, respectively, the power to cope with change and adapt to new requirements. Labor market imbalances are produced, with an aging population and labor migration. Young people with greater ability to adapt to change, migrate to areas where jobs are better paid. This paper aims to highlight issues of unemployment and vacancies for economic activity in the North East, knowing that it is one of the poorest regions of Romania, but with a large number of immigrants. The region comprises 6 counties: Bacau, Botosani, Iasi, Neamt, Suceava and Vaslui, the largest of the eight development regions of Romania. The region with the largest population of eight, representing 17.2% of the total country population. Because of the geographical and historical Northeast region experienced a serious lagging behind in socioeconomic terms. The region has a degree of rurality higher than the national average. The region has a mainly agrarian economy and standard of living of the population, very low. In the communist period, we performed a forced industrialization in the region, which led to the creation of an industrial culture, workforce qualification and training of a large number of specialists. Large understood, changes in the economy has affected precisely this category, a 90s were specialists in various fields, mainly industrial. From the economic point of view, unemployment can be regarded as an unused labor capacity. International Labour Office defines unemployed population, as: persons aged who were without work during the reference week but are currently available for work and actively seeking work past four weeks or had already found a job and start working Pota the next three months. The measure the supply of labor, can be considered vacant job. According to NIS methodology, job vacancies are considered paid posts, newly created, unoccupied, or will become vacant if: concrete action employer to find a suitable candidate for the position in question Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

80 (examples of concrete actions undertaken by the employer: announcing the vacancy through employment services for labor, newspaper advertising, media, internet, direct contact of possible candidates etc.); immediate occupation or employer wants a specific time period established by the employer. 2. Econometric Modeling 2.1. Data used We use multifactor regression model. Dependent variable: the unemployment rate for the age group years (RS_55-64) independent variables vacancy rate for six fields in the Romanian economy: industry, agriculture, commerce, tourism, construction, health, education and public administration (SIAP), and financial and real estate transactions. The data used are quarterly data for the period and come from research, the statistical "Force Survey household labor" (LFS) respectively Survey vacancies. Source National Institute of Statistics Desciptive statistics Looking at Table 1, the information rate of job vacancies in the North East classified by broad areas of activity of the Romanian economy, we find that the highest rate of vacancies is to be found in areas of the budget, 13, 32%, the lower in the tourism trade. One explanation could be the fact that in the last field, practice more, moonlighting, employers not reporting job vacancies, however, in contrast, due to the legislation, all vacancies are announced. During the analyzed period (36 quarters), RLV industry was below 3.32%, and construction was 1.17%. The lowest average vacancies can be found throughout the tourism trade. Table 1. Descriptive Statistics employment rate in the North East. RLV_CON RLV_COMT RLV_TRANZRLV_SIAP RLV_IND RLV_AGRS UR IF A Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev A look at the unemployment rate for people aged over 55 years, shows that these are at a fairly low level. Maxima 3.9% is reached in Q4 80 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

81 2009 after down, remaining at a level slightly higher compared to the start of the recession, to a maximum of 2.4%. Figure 1. Evolution of unemployment RS The analysis employment rate evolution in the main areas of activity, shows that after 2008, fell sharply vacancies in industry, trade tourism, areas of the budget, financial and real estate transactions, but also in agriculture and construction, which keeps downward trend. In industry, the slump began in quarter 4, 2008, travel trade, in Q3 2009, the situation has never recovered, as well as in construction, in H RLV_IND Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

82 3.0 RLV_AGR RLV_CONS RLV_COMTUR Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

83 14 RLV_SIAPA RLV_TRANZIF Figure 2. Evolution of the rate of vacancies 2.3. Econometric analysis The econometric model used is of the form: Yt = bo + b1 X1 t + b2 X 2t bk X kt + ε t t = 1,2,...T are observations in the sample; Y observation of the dependent variable; t X independent variables, j X observation of the independent variable; jt b constant (constant term of the equat o b 1,...b k coefficients of independent variables; Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

84 ε t error term. In our study, T = 36, corresponding to the years 2005 to 2013 quarters. The independent variable coefficient how much the dependent variable changes when the independent variable X jt, changes by one unit, while the other independent variables remain co nstant. The error term captures all the effects that occur randomly and were not taken into account in reaizarea model. The regression equation is subject to assumptions in order to obtain efficient estimators, such as: cov ( x i x j ) = 0 i j for any (otherwise the 2 phenomenon of multicollinearity); var( ε t ) = σ ε (homoskedas. hypothesis) E( ε t ) =0, cov( ε i ε j ) 0 i j. for any Check validity of the model is performed using elements of mathematical statistics. To test estimators using t-test (t-statistic). If the test is greater than the critical value (the value of the Student distribution table for the relevant degrees of freedom of thought and T k) the null hypothesis is considered significant coefficient. The program used Eviews 8 tested by t test for each coefficient null hypothesis, namely that the coefficient is zero. Both values are reported t test (t-statistic) and associated probabilities (prob). If p is more than likely that is working, then the null hypothesis is accepted and considered coefficient is statistically zero (insignificant) Results and interpretation After checking the statistical hypotheses for the two models used, and their testing revealed the following model: Dependent Variable: RS(-1) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/30/14 Time: 22:42 Sample (adjusted): 2005Q3 2013Q4 Included observations: 34 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C D(RLV_SIAPA(-1)) Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

85 D(RLV_IND(-1)) RLV_CONS(-1) D(RLV_COMTUR(-1)) D(RLV_AGR(-1)) D(RLV_TRANZIF(-1)) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) The estimated model shows that the only area that offer jobs compatible with skills and expectations population segment is analyzed only the construction industry. Here then, in the North East region, those who looked for a job in the analyzed period were compatible with seasonal occupations (in consttructiii working on perioadde generally determined), most often unqualified, or corresponding trades which, the old order had dedicated training in school education (construction, lathe, milling cutters, welders, etc.), trades now no longer found in the training programs of the new generation. The Job vacancies in construction have influenced the statistically samnificativ, inversely, the unemployment rate. 3. Conclusions The North East Region, is one of the eight development regions of Romania, acelesi experiencing problems that we find throughout Romania, and in Europe in general. Population aging, structural changes in the economy, technological progress, globalization, all these make the labor market to face great challenges. On the one hand, high unemployment among young people, the education system is rigid enough to economic changes, or offer graduates competent in accordance with the request of employers, and population aging, which is no longer found in the labor market. The three actors, policy makers, the employer but the employee must cooperate in issuing policies, their implementation and their investment for a good approximation to the labor market. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

86 Acknowledgement This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development , project number POSDRU 159/1.5/S/ Performance and excellence in doctoral and postdoctoral research in Romanian economic science domain References Ailenei D. Dir,(2009) " Realizarea unor scenarii privind pierderile de forta de munca si capital uman ale Romaniei", Contract cercetare nr / ,PN II parteneriate în domenii prioritare din ASE., Baltagi, B.H (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 3rd ed., John Wiley & Sons, West Sussex, Bourbonnais R., (2009), Économétrie, Dunod, Paris Gujarati, D. (2004), Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill, New York http//europa.eu Age and Employment European Network of Legal Experts in the non-discrimination fieldwritten by Declan O Dempsey and Anna Beale Supervised by Mark Freedland National Institute of Statistics, 2014, Tempo online, 86 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

87 Involvement of the Top Management in the Progess of the Organizational Culture of a Successful Company Prof. Mircea UDRESCU PhD Prof. Constantin CODERIE PhD Associate Prof. Dan NASTASE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract The most visible side of the organizational culture includes artificial physical products, behavioural artificial products, verbal artificial products, heroes, actors and prospects offered to the members of an organization. The invisible side of the organizational culture which however has a major role in promoting the concrete organizational culture is represented by the basic conceptions and the values promoted by the top management of the company. Thus, all the collective beliefs, values and norms will represent the core culture which, in successful companies, is based on performance, innovation, responsibility, integrity, customer care, team work etc. The way in which the top management get involved in the progress of the organizational culture is analysed in the case of a successful company. Key words: management, culture, organizational culture, company, top management, values, values, personality, objectives, results, performance, responsibility, team work. In order to justify our ideas regarding the major role played by the high quality management in the creation and the development of organizational culture in a successful company, we shall use as references the cases presented by John P. Kotter[1], a well-known author in the field of successful management. He chose Konosuke Matsushita, the founder of Matsushita Electrics, as his management model. Matsushita made people become better. In a telegram read out upon his burial, at the end of April Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

88 1989, the president of the USA called him a source of inspiration for mankind [2]. In 1910, Matsushita started his job with the Electricity Company in Osaka. He got promoted from unskilled worker to inspector in He remembers about this time in his life: I had a lot of free time that I used to spend talking with my colleagues or watching the shop-windows, when I was coming back from inspections. It was discouraging and useless. Eventually, I started hating my position and being disappointed by this position that I had dreamed of since I was a mere installation technician. [3]. To avoid wasting time, he started improving a socket that was largely used in the company. Although he was persuaded that he had obtained a top product, he was more than disappointed when his bosses did not even want to have a look at his proposal. He decided to manufacture the new product on his own and he left the company on 20 th June Right at the time when everything seemed to work against his wish, a businessman who had been refused an order for 1,000 insulating plates asked Matsushita to take over this order and to properly respond to it in a few days because he was busy with other customers. Of course, Matsushita agreed immediately and the order was delivered a few days earlier at best quality because Matsushita worked 20 hours a day. The businessman was very pleased, he increased the number of pieces of insulating plates requested in his orders and he also accepted to sell the electrical sockets already produced; the electrical sockets started to be in demand on the market. At the end of 1918, the company produced 4 products, 2 types of plates and 2 types of sockets, it had 8 employees and a turnover of 200,000 dollars, while, for instance, General Electric had a turnover of million dollars and Toshiba had 14.8 million dollars. Between , Matsushita was a seller and an entrepreneur; his entrepreneurial strategy started from the requirement better but cheaper ; he believed that a small company with big ambitions must be creative, and the ideal offer should be a product that is 30% better and 30% cheaper than the standard product. Thus, the company has chances to acquire a significant market ratio and best results [4]. Consequently, at the end of 1923, he launched the concept of a new product: a type of bicycle headlight with a light structure, unbreakable and very efficient in the sense that its battery lasted for 10 hours. He personally tested the prototype several times, using his own bicycle. His employees rode in bumpy streets in order to test the strength of the product. It was obviously better than any other brand of the market with its simple 88 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

89 structure, operating on batteries for hours and everything was cheaper than candles When the product was presented into electrical shops, the shop owners refused it because the bicycle headlights on batteries had a bad reputation as these special batteries were difficult to find when they needed replacing. Desperate, he turned to bicycle distribution companies. He faced the same reluctance. He had already produced over 4,000 bicycle headlights and if he could not sell, bankruptcy was close. He therefore approached a new strategy. He left several bike headlights with each bike seller and asked them to leave one of them permanently on without asking for any pay in exchange. MEI asked for a pay only if the users were satisfied with these bike headlights. Thus, the no-risk taking market strategy for sellers came into being. Shortly, sellers realized that the headlights would run for 50 hours, some of the consumers were pleased, orders increased. At the end of 1924, the factory produced over 10,000 headlights and the disaster turned into sheer success [5]. A distribution company acquired the exclusivity of the sales of these headlights and committed itself to a monthly order of 10,000 pieces. Another managerial team would have been more than happy with this production and sales volume; Matsushita was not. In 1926, he was thinking that, in order to ensure the long term success, he had to improve the product, to make strategic investments in order to cut the price and to maintain the sales. Consequently, he maintained the contract with the company that was selling 10,000 headlights per month; however, he didn t give them the improved models but he launched them himself. In 1927, he launched the National headlight model - cheaper, square shaped, much more efficient. In order to promote the new model, the company distributed 10,000 pieces for free to various bulk sellers and many retail sellers. Free samples marketing for this size was unconceivable. The result was that at the end of 1928, the company was already selling 30,000 more headlights per month and about 3,000,000 batteries. In 1927, the company got involved in the modernization of the ironing equipment although there were more than 100 producing companies on the market. The National iron became a leader right away and the mass production began. Generally, he would ask his employees to do the following: Treat your business partners as you treat your family. Prosperity depends on how much understanding you receive from the people who stand by your side in your business. Post-sale services are more important than pre-sale assistance as they can ensure permanent clients. Don t sell clients products they are attracted to, but useful products. Any waste, including a Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

90 sheet of paper, will increase the price of the product. If you have no product left in your stock, this has happened by negligence. Apologize and promise you will send the products immediately. [6]. Konosuke Matsushita thought that the goal of the company was to permanently improve the products in order to make them more efficient, better and cheaper than the competition s products. MEI took risks to expand on other markets in order to gain a significant ratio. He was working hard to cut prices and to increase productivity. He started a loyal and strong distribution system. His expectations regarding his employees were high; his employees were well respectfully treated. His values were flexibility and speed, as he preferred to spend less time on decisions, the research and development budget and feasibility for all projects [7]. Most important is to fully feel the happiness in our lives and at the same time to make efforts for the welfare of the future generations [8]. He translated these beliefs into general behavior; starting with 27 th July 1933, at the beginning of each working day, each employee was supposed to tell himself as persuasively as possible: 1. serving the customers: let us provide the highest quality goods and services, at reasonable prices, to contribute to the prosperity and happiness of mankind. 2. honesty and integrity: let us be honest and straightforward in all business projects and in our personal life; let us always take unbiased decisions. 3. team work for a common cause: let us join our capabilities and strength in order to accomplish our joint goals, based on mutual trust and fully acknowledging individual independence. 4. permanent effort for progress: let us strive to improve professional and personal results despite hard obstacles in order to accomplish the mission of the company to bring long term peace and prosperity. 5. courtesy and modesty: let us be always courteous and modest, let us respect the rights and the needs of the others in order to make the world better and to preserve the social structures. 6. compliance with natural laws: let us be in compliance with the natural laws and adjust our thoughts and the behaviour to the ever-changing context in order to build a gradual but stable progress and to have access to our undertakings. 7. gratitude for blessings: let us be grateful for all the blessing and the kindness received in order to leave in peace, joy and strength 90 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

91 and to overcome obstacles in our search for true happiness.(points 6 and 7 were added in 1937). The result was remarkable: a set of values sending a message to all employees, communication that became more credible in time and succeeded, although many people found this curious. The success meant mainly the power of example among all the employees of the company [9]. Thus, the owner of the company imposed to the management certain goals that seemed unfeasible at a certain moment, even unrealistic. On the 10 th January 1956, Matsushita established as his goal for the following 5 years to increase sales 4 times. As a result of a general effort, the company fulfilled this goal one year earlier. While the effort to increase the turnover was underway, the second goal was announced in 1958: to cut costs with 10%. In 1960, the staff of the company was shocked to learn the goal established for the following 5 years: to reduce the working days to 5 while maintaining the same pay. As a result of a change strategy meant to adapt the company to globalization trends, MEI was the first Japanese company that adopted the 5 working days week. These examples emphasize that management and organizational culture are inter-related. Obviously, there is a close connection between organizational culture, management, leadership and the future performance of an organization. As soon as a new company is set up, its organizational culture will appear; this will reflect the philosophy and the imagination of its members, harmonized with the values disseminated by its management. This proves that a high quality management results into an efficient organizational culture. References [1]. John P. Kotter, Matsushita Leadership, Political Publishing House Bucharest, [2]. Idem, the cited book, p.19 [3]. Idem, the cited book, p.68 [4]. Idem, the cited book, p [5]. Idem, the cited book, p [6]. Idem, the cited book, p. 23 [7]. Idem, the cited book, p. 113 [8]. Idem, the cited book, p.121 [9]. Idem, the cited book, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

92 The Markowitz Model Prof. Ioan PARTACHI PhD Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova Lecturer Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Cristina SACALĂ PhD Student Iustina JURESCHI, Master student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract Harry Max Markowitz, laureate of the Nobel Prize for economy in 1990, is known for is contributions to the development of the modern theory of the portfolio, his studies being focused with priority to the effects which the risk, the profitableness or the assets correlation are implying when the forming of a portfolio is aimed. By consecrating to the study of this matter, he contributed fundamentally to the settlement of the financial markets issues as from the years 1950, by elaborating a modern theory concerning the efficiency of the choice within a portfolio. The theory allows the setting up of an optimum modality to place the capitals as well as the diminishing of the risk degree for the done financial investments. Key words: portfolio, risk, capital, investment, financial market Markowitz has study profoundly the motivation of the behaviour of the players on the financial market from the point of view of the tendencies to maximize the profitableness and to decrease the risk. The Markowitz theory generated an economic-mathematical model aiming the behaviour of the subjects of the financial market. He introduced the practice of the diversification of the assets portfolios depending on the correlation between risk and profitableness. In the frame of the model he conceived, the assets are correlated two by two and it is possible to identify the proportion of the assets within the portfolio in order to identify the portfolio with absolute minimum variant. The Markowitz model starts from the idea that to any risk can be 92 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

93 associated with a probability of occurrence in the asset, being the more so risky so as there is a higher volatility of the gains. In the present context of the economic development, the Markowitz model keeps its relevance and keeps on being utilized for identifying the optimum choices in the frame of the portfolio. The investor cannot afford the luxury to place his entire available capital in a single asset or in a single business 1. By his model, Markowitz offered a basis for the analysis of the portfolio of financial assets and for setting up the optimum from the financial point of view taking into consideration the evolutions of the individual yields of the assets and the risk associated to them. The first step towards building up a portfolio consists of building it up with two assets. In these conditions, the hypotheses of the model being proposed by Markowitz are the following: the investors consider each investment alternative as being represented by the distribution of the expected profit probabilities, over a period of time; the investors maximize the expected utility over a period of time while the curve of the utility maximizes the marginal utility of their welfare; the investors estimate the risk on the basis of the alteration in the expected profits; the investors take decisions on the basis of the expected risk and profit only, so that the utility curve is expressed as a function of the expected profit and profit variant; for a given level of the risk, the investors prefer a high profit; for a given level of the expected profit, the investors prefer the smaller risk 2. Let s assume that on a stock exchange market there are three assets transacted, noted with i, i = 1,3. For the three assets with risk, the following data are known 3 : The expected profitableness: The individual risks: 1 Here we can apply the well-known dictum We must not out the eggs in a single panel' 2 " I want to point out that, as to the theoretical part, it would be necessary to show which are the formulas characterising the Markowitz model, but when solving the problem I shall write all of them in order to allow an as good as possible understanding on the mode to solve it 3 The equations were represented in a third-part software Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

94 and The correlation coefficients between the three assets: Considering the above: A. We consider a rational investor with behaviour of Markowitz type: this one aims to get a given yield with a minimum risk. Knowing that the profitableness which this one wishes to obtain is p = 20%, it is required for this case to establish the structure of the portfolio he has to form and the risk associated to the portfolio. B. The setting up of the Markowitz border equation (the upper part) and the equation of the tangent to this border in the point established by the requirement from A. Solution: first of all, based on the data out of the problem the matrices 4 have to be built up: Solving the point A: 4 Calculations were made in Excel 94 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

95 By solving this problem, the outcome shows that: - The optimum structure of the investor s portfolio: - The risk of the investor s portfolio: or where the following notation applies 5 : 5 We have used the notations from the course of mister professor Moisă Altar, the mode of solving the problem being the suggested one through the course support. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

96 And Programs for Romania s Economic Recovery in the Horizon 2020 Perspective By making the calculations, we have: 96 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

97 Therefore: X1 * = 9.90%, X1 * = 44.16%, X1 * = 45.94%, therefore it is verified that: ρ = X *T μ = * * *0.23=0.20=20%. Or Wherefror the risk of portfolio results: Solving point B: With The equation of a line is: y - y0 = m(x x0), where m is the slope of the line. In a portfolio the line is equal to the derivate. We shall have: Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

98 Where the slope is: The tangent equation in the point P( ; 0.20) is: The intersection with the ordinates axis is obtained for σ = 0 and is given by: Meaning R= =10.76%. Conclusions In the present context of the economic development, the Markowitz model keeps its relevance and keeps on being utilized for identifying the optimum choices in the frame of the portfolio. Through the practical application submitted and solved above, I aimed to show how a portfolio can be created by using the model proposed by Markowitz. Thus, for the three financial assets for which both the profitableness and the risk for each of them are known, I have built up a portfolio with a fixed yield of 20%, under minimum risk conditions. We have found out the portfolio structure as being: X1 * = 9.90%, X1 * = 44.16%, X1 * = 45.94%, while the minimum risk of the portfolio is 15.20%. By correlating the results with the initial data of the problem we can notice that an investor prefers to invest the less in the asset Xi, which shows the lowest yield and risk and prefers to invest an appropriate proportion in the assets of the highest risk, X2 and X3, but with a more attractive 98 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

99 profitableness. By building up the portfolio, the investor bearing a behavior of Markowitz type succeeded to get a risk of 15.2%, a value below the risk of any other asset of the portfolio, here the significance of the Markowitz model being observed to the best. From my point of view, the submitted application showed the mode of building up a portfolio according to the Markowitz model, emphasizing its utility and succeeding, meantime, to build up the efficient border as well, on the basis of a number of numerical date. Acknowledgement This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development , project number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/ Performance and excellence in doctoral and postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain References Anghelache C., Suport de curs de statistică financiară, ASE Bucureşti Moisă Altar, Suport de curs de modelare Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

100 Analysis of Tourist Traffic Indexes in Romania compared to Some Countries in Europe Alina GHEORGHE PhD Student The Bucharest University of Economic Studies Abstract In this paper the author presents the situation of tourist traffic, both nationally and internationally. The analysis is performed in order to formulate and implement a strategy for the development of rural tourism services, and thus, to ecotourism. The evolution of this area depends, mainly, of satisfying the demand for such services and improving their quality. Key words: ecotourism, development, tourist function, tourist traffic density Introduction Developing ecotourism industry is a topical subject, and at the same time, debated with great interest by the Romanian and foreign specialists. In European countries, such as Italy, France, Austria and Switzerland, the quality of ecotourism and tourism services is high. In Romania, ecotourism is at the beginning of the road, but there's a massive potential in this respect, because we have a number of protected areas, customs and traditions which shows a growing interest of foreign tourists. The tourist founction of areas or localities (F) is calculated using the following formula (R. Minciu, 2004, pg. 48): L F= 100 where : P L represents the number of places in the area or locality concerned; P represents the permanent population of the area or locality. In turn, tourist traffic density provides information regarding the request of zones and indirectly on the measures to be taken in order to ensure coverage of the requirements of tourists without being disturbed the life and activity of the residents or the ecological balance of the areas 100 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

101 (R.Minciu, 2004, p.97). Tourist traffic density (DCT) shall be determined using the following formula (R. Minciu, 2004, p. 97): NT DCT = where: S NT represents number of arrivals; S represents the surface of the zone. The two indicators are used to analyze the degree of development of tourist areas or countries. The tourist function and tourist traffic density The first issue addressed in this article is the evolution in the number of arrivals and overnights in Romania and several countries in Europe, within the timeframe , because we can find that is the level at which our country in this respect. The indicators are presented in Table 1: Table no Number of arrivals and overnights in Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Greece, Italy, within the timeframe Number of arrivals Bulgaria Croatia Romania Greece Italy Number of overnights Bulgaria Croatia Romania Greece Italy (Source: EUROSTAT, accessed at ). In the above table, we can see that the most visited countries are Italy and Greece, followed by Croatia. Romania lies on a lower position in this ranking, which is due to inadequate training of personnel specialized in Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

102 tourism and low degree of promotion of tourist attractions in Romania. Also, one reason why the number of overnights is decreased in Romania is the low quality accommodation services and poor infrastructure. Table 2 presents the evolution of accommodation capacity within the timeframe : Table No. 2. The capacity of existing accommodation in Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Italy, within the timeframe The capacity of existing accommodation Bulgaria Croatia Romania Greece Italy (Source: EUROSTAT, 2014). This indicator also registers variations from one year to another. Greece and Italy are positioned in the top. Romania is occupying an inferior place. Nationwide, after the economic and financial crisis in the country, the number of places of accommodation has grown from year to year, which it confirms the growing interest expressed by the authorities and investors in the tourism sector. Next, the author analyzed the tourist function of Romania, Italy and Greece, represented in Figure No. 1: Figure no. 1. Tourist function of Romania, Greeceand Italy, within the timeframe Source: Made by author 102 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

103 Extensive analysis with respect to the development of tourism at european level leads us to the conclusion that countries that exhibit variety of landforms similar to Romania, have a higher level of interest of our country, thanks to the interest of officials in promoting tourism in the tourist areas, where you practice ecotourism, recreational tourism and agrotourism. The European country in which results in a higher level of interest is Greece, a country that lives in particular from tourism (agrotourism, ecotourism). The tourist function in Italy varies between 7.99% in 2011 and 8.02 % in The tourist traffic density in these countries from Europe is represented in Figure no. 2: Figure no. 2. Tourist traffic density in Romania, Greece and Italy, within the timeframe Source : Made by author Considering the interest of tourists (ecotourists or rual tourists) to visit the regions and European countries of great tourist attraction, where officials and the hosts are interested to promote quality services, Italy, Greece, recorded at tourist density index, elevated levels year after year, as can be seen from Figure no. 2. As has been able to ascertain, the indicators that determine indirectly the quality of ecotourism have evolved according to tourist attraction, due to the geographical conditions, the material and human resources performance. Dynamic indexes with fixed base and chained base of tourist structures with accommodation function in romania Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

104 In Romania, the number of accommodation establishments in both tourism and ecotourism, is changing from one year to another, as shown in the table below: Tabel nr.3 Accommodation establishments Accommodation establishments Hotels and motels Hostels Tourist inns Tourist huts Camping and cottage type units Touristics villas and bungalows Preschool and students camps Touristic guesthouses Agrotouristic guesthouses Touristic houselets Holiday villages Accommodation spaces on ships Total Source: INS accessed at In the table above, it is noted that, after the installing of the economic and financial crisis in Romania, the interest of entrepreneurs in the tourism development of the ecotourism industry has grown. A growing number of people are interested in starting a small business in the field of ecotourism, most being family businesses. As a result of this development, has significantly increased the number of holiday villages tourist chalets and agrotouristic guesthouses and this aspect is presented in Table no 4.: 104 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

105 Table no. 4 Dynamic indexes with fixed base(bf) and chained base(bl) recorded in Romania, within the timeframe Accommodation establishment s Hotels and BF BL BF BL BF BL BF BL BF BL BF BL 104,4 100,9 107,2 102,6 111,6 104,1 118,4 106,1 127,4 107,5 136,2 106,8 motels Hostels 239,3 105,3 245,4 102,5 293,9 119,7 345,4 117,5 439,3 127,1 539,3 122,7 Tourist inns 54,5 66,6 45,4 83,3 45,4 100,0 36,3 80,0 36,3 100,0 18,1 75,0 Tourist huts 95,5 93,1 102,6 107,4 108,8 106,0 115,5 108,9 130,0 109,7 129,2 99,3 Camping and cottage type units 89,5 91,7 87,9 98,1 81,4 92,6 80,6 99,0 57,2 71,0 67,7 118,3 Touristics villas 95,3 93,6 96,1 100,8 99,1 103,0 101,3 102,2 73,7 72,7 84,5 114,6 and bungalows Preschool and 76,1 89,8 73,5 96,5 73,5 100,0 60,9 82,8 45,6 75,0 46,3 101,4 students camps Touristic 123,2 104,8 131,1 106,3 147,0 112,1 158, ,8 110,6 201,0 114,2 guesthouses Agrotouristic 135,1 102,6 141,0 104,3 147,6 104,7 141,6 95,8 126,5 89,3 164,1 129,6 guesthouses Touristic 103,4 96,7 106,8 103,3 103,4 96,7 110,3 106,6 141,3 128,1 134,4 95,1 houselets Holiday villages 100,0 150,0 100,0 100,0 133,3 133,3 133,3 100,0 166,6 125,0 200,0 120,0 Source: Made by author A second cause for ecotourism accommodation in Romania has increased the interest of the national authorities in this respect, by developing ecotourism development strategies at the county level. Conclusion In conclusion, it is noticed that at the national level, it is necessary to formulate a strategy for the development of ecotourism, since the country has great potential in this respect, both geographically, socially, and economically. At the same time, Romania is visited by a growing number of foreign tourists, and for attracting a larger number is required a better promotion of ecotourism services at the international level, and also the romanian customs and traditions. References R. Minciu (2004), Tourism Economy, III-rd Edition, Uranus Publising House, Bucharest accessed at accessed at Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

106 Regionalization- an Actual Socio-economic Mega- Trend Cristian GHENA PhD Student Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract The international trade system reaches almost everybody, although the average length of each link in this case is much shorter than that of the internet. The activities of national economies in some parts of the world have become increasingly regional, such as in the case of Europe, East Asia, or North America, while the Third World countries in Africa and South America are increasingly dependent on other regions without much success of intra-regional integration, despite occasional efforts. Nowadays sports play an essential role in our social life and contributes to shaping the process of regionalization. Based on the sports criteria, in time there developed separate supranational bodies, which are structured as confederations, associations, federations, organizations etc. Key words: Regionalization, definition, dimensions, types, theoretical background, sport journalism, sport Introduction The beginning of the 21st century is marked by several parallel integration processes among the socio-economic systems of the world as long as among cultural and sport systems. The internet is becoming a geographically global system, despite being out of reach for the majority of the world s population. The international trade system reaches almost everybody, although the average length of each link in this case is much shorter than that of the internet. The activities of national economies in some parts of the world have become increasingly regional, such as in the case of Europe, East Asia, or North America, while the Third World countries in Africa and South America are increasingly dependent on other regions without much success of intra-regional integration, despite occasional efforts. This economic regionalization is accompanied by social 106 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

107 and cultural ones: migration patterns in the Big Regions serve as ready evidence for that. It is widely recognized that the world economy has experienced an unprecedented intensification of economic and financial integration since the latter part of the twentieth century. Developments such as trade and capital account liberalization, as well as technological innovation in transport and telecommunications, have increased the international exchange of factors of production and final products. What is less often recognized is that the process of globalization has been accompanied by the strengthening of economic and financial linkages within geographic regions. Indeed the world economy is simultaneously becoming more regionalized and more globalized. The trend towards regional integration has been supported in many areas by regional policy initiatives, particularly in the field of trade. The result is a proliferation of regional agreements that vary widely in breadth and depth. Relations of regionalization and sports journalism Among the most important processes influencing at present both world civilization as a whole as well as the individual states, there belongs globalization, respectively internalization and multilateralism, but also fragmenting, respectively regionalization and integration. Against the process of globalization, which leads to the universalization of the world economy, there functions the process of fragmenting (differentiation), resulting in its division into smaller economic entities. The regional reflection of the world economy fragmenting is the process, which is labeled as regionalism (regionalization). And it is, as well as other socio-economic mega-trends, understood in different ways. According to L.A. Winters, it means any policy aimed at decreasing trade barriers among countries, without regard to the fact, whether they are neighboring countries or any near countries. The notion of economic integration itself was rarely used in the previous century and its definition was ambiguous and sometimes unclear. Later, its characteristics emerged as a name for the situations starting from the economic approximation, though co-operation and solidarity, up to the connecting, merging, unifying. As the basic forms of economic integration, there is regarded free, or relatively free, trade, which in itself means integration, even it in its lowest form. Free trade also is, according to the neo-classics, the main reason of economic integration realization. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

108 Joseph Nye defined international region "as a limited number of states linked by a geographical relationship and by a degree of mutual interdependence", and (international) regionalism as "the formation of interstate associations or groupings on the basis of regions". Along with economic integration, we can speak about cultural and sport integration. In a few short centuries, primitive pasture games relying on balls of rocks, rags, feathers or hair transformed into global events with intricate rules, with television and the internet tracking cricket matches in Australia to soccer in Zaire. Any sport can now attract players or audiences in any part of the globe, and yet conventional wisdom suggests that as an activity takes on global stature, it becomes more controlled and competitive, disconnecting from local origins. Sport s purpose is no longer limited to entertainment, often intermingling with trade, business and politics. Talent, speed and innovation are recognized transnationally in business or sport, and Thomas Hylland Eriksen s essay details reasons why some sport phenomena spread while others do not: The most popular cultural products whether books, food or sports tend to require little culturally specific knowledge, have an emotional, sensory or intellectual appeal that transcends local concerns; and can be effectively marketed across borders, particularly via television or the internet. In other words, he writes, low common denominators, a cheap entrance ticket and immediate gratification are factors facilitating global dissemination. For Eriksen, soccer is a hamburger, and speed skating is akin to a husmanskost, or a Swedish fish meatball. Competition and its regulation need not be very centralized. Global sports such as golf and tennis manage without a world championship, instead competing with a set of world tournaments, with frequent upsets of even the most dominant players, explains Rumsford. Other sports, such as cricket, undergo post-western transformation as former British colonies tussle with traditionalists over one-day versus multiple-day matches. Rumsford maintains that a global sport such as cricket lacks a single global modernity. Nowadays sports play an essential role in our social life and contributes to shaping the process of regionalization. In sport, it is when a team has multiple "home" venues in different cities. Examples of regionalized teams include a few teams in the defunct American Basketball Association, or the Green Bay Packers, American football team, when they played in both Green Bay and Milwaukee from Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

109 Thumbnailed, sport is a dimension of the economy and the economic and social relations that are created in the region. In order to prepare for the big competitions such as the European Championships, World or Olympic Games are used official sports events on the regional level. The regional competitions have gained a great extent in recent times, especially in Europe, but not only. For example: - Mediterranean Games; - Balkan Championships; - Competitions of Commonwealth of Independent States; - Nordic Games; - Competitions of Latin countries. These competitions are designed primarily as checks for other important confrontations in sports arenas. Many of the regional competitions are not addressing the seniors, but stop at the maximum age group of juniors and youth. On other continents, the examples are similar. Regionalization in sports is emphasized in the Persian Gulf, where we can find various sport competitions designated to the teams from that area. Ethnicity is another criterion of organization of such competition, as an example can serve the Arab Games, Southeast Asian, Pan-American, or even the Commonwealth Games or the Francophone Games. Based on these sports criteria, in time there developed separate supranational bodies, which are structured as confederations, associations, federations, organizations etc. They admit members among adherents, especially from geographically delimited space. There are can be found exceptions, such as the Balkan Athletics Association, which accepted membership of Croatia, Armenia, Macedonia, Moldova and Cyprus, and received requests for affiliation from the Czech Republic, Hungary and Ukraine. In this context, it is clear that sport is a useful vector towards regional integration and emphases regional cooperation and good neighborly relations. Beyond this goal, sports journalism, correctly implemented can serve as an opinion maker who have the ability to explain in detail the utility of regionalization through sport. Conclusions The decisive integration process in the world economy is becoming the process of trans-nationalization, which reflects the growing share of transnational corporations in the world gross product and world trade. It Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

110 represents, also for sports journalism, a new global division of labor. This functional form of integration includes both the internalized relationships inside the individual transnational corporations and the hierarchic nets of the externalized co-operation relationships, in which the connected transnational corporations usually dominated. If speaking about sports competitions, it is easier to find unified regional values through regular sport or debate meetings, than in case of sports journalism, as it presents at regional level a greater heterogeneity. It will be difficult to harmonize preferences and professional lines of journalists from different countries using different languages and having different values and objectives. This is not true for North Americans that however is a completely separate example of different possibilities for regionalization. The tradition of common professional leagues of Canada and the USA (baseball, ice hockey, basketball, soccer or American football) is so strong that it has become indestructible in this century. Huge performance, generating tens of millions of dollars, has unified in sports journalists of the two countries, which pursue the same professional lines. Practically, they can be considered in different camps only in international competitions where their countries are facing directly. Another example is table tennis, with annual meetings between continental teams of Europe and Asia, or idea of the French Athletics Federation that organizes annually a team competition, named Decanathion, that is attended by Balcanic or Northern European teams. All these are examples of regionalization in sports that are sustained intensely by sport journalists, who manage to convince and attract the public opinion towards such type of competitions, paving the way for organizers of such events that are now expected by the public. A recent example that comes to mind appeared at the World Cup in Brazil in 2014, when sports journalists, beyond the national preferences and through the exact statistics and detailed analysis, generated a distanced dispute between the two major football continents, Europe and South America. The general idea that a European team has not ever won the supreme title in South American reverberated throughout the month reserved for the biggest soccer competition of the last four years. Another intriguing approach might center in on conflicts among sports or even disdain for a sports culture. Indeed, the book s closing essay, by Gary Armstrong, centers on the 2005 national election in Liberia when international soccer star George Weah lost to Harvard-educated 110 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

111 grandmother Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, and offers a reminder of sport s limited power. Gender concerns, economic troubles and diverse talents can outweigh the media attention directed at major figures in sports. Despite sport s special appeal and symbolism, societies expect responsibility from organizers and individual players. Much of sport s power is derived from the narratives of players and teams that emerge over time, and over-commercialization, rapid growth, intrusive nationalization, arrogant celebrity hierarchies as well as relentless quests for victory or profits that can taint those stories. Sport and sports journalism are two distinct concepts, but inextricably linked. Moreover, we have here a triangle that is completed with economics that lead and dictate specific strategies in sports or sports journalism. In an era where professionalism is the cornerstone of all actions and economic regularities have been functioning already for several decades, the relationship between the three cannot be left aside. References V. Jenicek Globalization and Regionalization, Czech University of Agriculture, Prague A. Winters Regionalization versus Multilateralism, CEPR London Richard Giulianotti and Roland Robertson Globalization and Sport Julie McKay, Maria Oliva Armengol, Georges Pineaut - Regional Economic Integration in a global Framework G20 workshop ACKNOWLEDGMENT This paper has been financially supported within the project entitled SOCERT. Knowledge society, dynamism through research, contract number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/ This project is co-financed by European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development Investing in people! Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

112 Dynamics of Labor Productivity. Law of marginally decreasing Productivity Assoc. prof. Dragoş Gabriel MECU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract The dynamics of productivity, its growth, is an objective necessity of development and progress for each economic agent, and of the society as a whole. The productivity increase, generally, and especially of labor productivity, has a lawlike character because it reflects the causality reports between the efficiency of labor spending and the degree of economic development. Key words: productivity, labor, progress, factors, causes The main condition of the economic and social progress of a country is the dynamic character of productivity. The evolution of productivity is determined by indices, reporting the productivity level of the current period at the one on the base period, that is: Iw = (W1/W0) 100. The dynamics of productivity(iw), its growth index, is depending on the dynamics of production (IQ) and the dynamics of the production factor (factors) (IFP). The evolution of productivity can be: growth, when Iw>1; stagnation, when Iw=1 and reduction, when Iw<1. Evidently, it can be understood that, in the first situation, the increase index of productivity surpasses the one for production factors, in the second situation, the respective indices are equal, and in the last case, the index of production is lesser than the index of production factors. Labor productivity represents, also, the main expression form for efficiency at which labor is consumed, by it there can be appreciated the use degree for human resources, the social labor economy, the progress of a nation. Also, the categories of labor efficience and productivity express the ratio between effects (results) achieved and expenses (efforts) assumed by the effects. Therefore, often, the productivity of labor is defined as the economic efficiency of spending the labor force, in given conditions of production and 112 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

113 time. But, between the category labor productivity (as fruit of labor, the possibility of labor to create, during a timeframe, a volume of goods, to execute some works or to provide some services) and the category of economic efficiency there are also differences, 1 such as: a) economic efficiency covers a wider comprehension sphere than the productivity of labor; b) economic efficiency is pursued in all domains of economic and social life, while labor productivity is determined, especially, in the sphere of material production; c) economic efficiency uses numerous systems of indicators, while the productivity of labor is calculated directly. The increase of labor productivity manifests itself in the time saving, this being the resource whose price increases the fastest in report to the other resources. The importance of time, in contemporary conditions, increases, because in a world full of events, which cannot be predicted in a determinist fashion, the economic science has accepted the uncertainty and risk, the intensity of time usage, the better integration of economic components in the natural ambiance. In this context, progress and property are on the side of those who better manage, on the long run, the production factors they are using and the time. The law of time economy, of increase the labor productivity, under the present conditions, manifests itself on the following advantages: a) increase of production with the same volume of production factors and the savings of factors for the achievement of a production unit; b) reduction of production costs and, on this basis, the increase of profit, of profitability (appropriation of an economic unit, of a product or a resource to bring profit, following encashments from a given period that are higher than expenses); c) establishing prices and the possibility to reduce them; d) increase of products competitiveness on the national and global market; e) increasing the incomes of economic agents; f) decrease of labor time and increase of free time; g) improvement of the position and power of a country in the global economy. 1 Economie politică, vol. I, Editura Porto-Franco, Galaţi, 1991, p Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

114 the real economic progess of a people is the increase of the level of average labor productivity, the rise of the level of wealth 2. The law of labor productivity increase, and implicitly of time economy, in contemporary economics, overcomes the sphere of material production because, really, the finished product means information, services, experience, cerebral contribution. Related to the dynamics of production factors productivity, economic thinking appreciates the existence of a law of decreasing marginal productivity, also known as the universal law of decreasing fertility (decreasing results) or the law of non-proportional results. This law was observed, first, in agriculture, and is linked to the interpretation of economic efficiency of investments in this branch. Later, a series of authors explain that this law has a wider area of existence, it refers to any activity domain. The adepts of marginalist theory hold firm that from a given point on, additional capital investments in agriculture are not coming together with an increase, in the same measure, of the results and productivity of labor. Subsequently, investments become less profitable, and products, more expensive. Of course, these limitations are linked by the very boundaries of the knowledge level of agricultural sciences and technologies. Together with scientific and technical progess, the limits of agriculture outputs modify. The law of decreasing marginal productivity manifests in a production process that calls for the use of more production factos, so if one of them increases, the others being constant, the volume for the additional production occurring after each increase of this factor (marginal productivity) tends at first to increase, then, passing a maximum point, always ends by diminishing. Depending on the specificity of the production sector and the possible combinations of production factors, usually, it can be ascertained that the productivity or output of the production factors is an issue of marginal productivity evolution. The laws of decreasing marginal productivity is valind under the following limits: a) it assumes that additional increasing size of the variable factor (most likey, labor) combined in the production process with the constant factor (the capital) always put into action the whole of this fixed factor; b) it acts only when additional investments are made for manufacturing equipment at the same level with previous investments; c) it acts when technique progresses.related to the output of variable factor, two situations can be found in practice: 2 Mihail Manoilescu, Forţele naţionale productive şi comerţul exterior. Teoria protecţionismului şi a schimbului internaţional, Editura Ştiinţifică şi Enciclopedică, Bucureşti, 1986, p. 122, 314, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

115 1) even if increasing quantities from a variable factor are mixed with a given quantity form the fixed one, there is a situation when both marginal and average productivity decrease, so each additional unit of the variable factor contributes in a smaller measure to the increase of total production than the previous unit, the marginal and average productivities decrease; 2) for a certain period, the same marginal productivity holds, even if the use of variable capital increases, that is the situation of constant productivity and output. The two situations are encounterend when we take into consideration the fact that one of the factors is fixed and production increases only by consecutively incrementing the other one. This is a restrictive situation and therefore is to be also taken into consideration, the evolution of both factors at the same time. This is where production functions come into action. If all production factors lead to simultaneous and proportional increase of production, scale outputs are achieved, whichare occurring on long time periods (in the sense of large production series). If we assume that all factors are doubled, either the production is doubled and we have scale constant outputs, or if the production increases more than double, there are progressive outputs or if th production decreases below double, decreasing scale outputs. References Gherasim T. (1994) Microeconomie, vol. I şi II, Editura Economică, Bucureşti. Manoilescu, M (1986) - Forţele naţionale productive şi comerţul exterior. Teoria protecţionismului şi a schimbului internaţional, Editura Ştiinţifică şi Enciclopedică, Bucureşti, 1986, p. 122, 314, 319. Mecu, D.G.(coord., 2005) Microeconomie, Editura Arvin Press, Bucureşti Mecu Gh. ş.a. (2002) Economie de piaţă contemporană, vol. I, II şi III, Editura Genicod, Bucureşti Pavelescu, F. (1996) - Regimul productivităţii muncii în economia românească, Tribuna Economică, nr. 14, 1996, p Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

116 The Industrial Production Indices Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Artifex University of Bucharest Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Ligia PRODAN PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract This paper describes the main aspects regarding the analysis of the industrial production indices in the Romanian economy, for the recent period. The research follows considers the sectorial evolution, as the contribution of significant branches is emphasized and discussed by the authors. Key words: industry, production, manufacture, evolution, weight In the industrial production indices are reflecting a slight increase as comparatively to the similar periods of the previous year, being largely influenced by the restructuring of the extractive sector, as well as by the decrease recorded at the level of the lohn production, which generated a slower rhythm of development at the level of the manufacturing industry. The rhythms of increase in the industrial field diminished and were different so that as against the increase recorded by the manufacturing industry, the decreases recorded by the extractive industry and the electric and thermo-energy, gas and water sector should be underlined; however, there have been increases for certain categories, such as the industry of durable goods, recording an increase of the industry of capital goods with, the industry of current usage goods with increase. The fact that these other activities or branches had small weights within the total industrial activity from our country is to be noted. However, there are several other branches which recorded diminished indices, such as: 116 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

117 textile production, clothes, shoes and leather articles production, rubber and plastics products, production of building materials and other non-metallic minerals and production of equipments and machinery. The first three categories, i.e. textile production, clothes, shoes and leather articles carried out their activity in the form of lohn production and recorded a tempering rhythm which might generate effects during the periods to come as well. On an overall basis, the industry kept on remaining on a positive position, meaning that it recorded a slight increase of the contribution to the GDP achievement in 2013 and The privatization process could lead within the forthcoming periods to new decreases, both for the rhythm and the volume of the production of certain branches, but also of the total contribution which the industry might bring to the GDP achievement, by the obtained gross added value. The labor productivity by an employee in the industrial field followed a slow increase trend over the period In the first seven months of 2014, the resources of prime energy increased. The evolution of the industrial production represents the sectors which have positively marked the evolution process during the period This characteristic is specific to the manufacturing industry which, by the over-helming weight hold in the total industry production generated the same trajectory to the entire industrial production. This is significant, despite the fact that the production of electric and thermo energy, is following a practically opposite trend while the trend of the extractive industry is recording a flat evolution. The data show a fluctuating evolution of the production volume, compared to previous periods. The decrease is stronger in the extractive industry as well, the manufacturing industry and electric and thermo energy, recording decreases. The decreases have been stronger at the level of the large industrial groups, structured upon the goods destination. Here we have to mention the marked decrease of the production of capital goods and by almost a quarter for the production of intermediary goods. The decreases recorded by the import and the export of intermediary goods are going to jeopardize this sector production which is already a confirmed fact by the recorded decreases. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

118 The biggest decreases being recorded during the first seven months of 2013, comparatively with the corresponding months of the previous year are shown up by the metallurgical industry A similar trend of a significant magnitude is stated out in the case of the production of auto-vehicles for road transportation from a relatively slight reduction in October to a marked decrease December. A similar trend of a significant magnitude is stated out in the case of the production of auto-vehicles for road transportation from a relatively slight reduction in October to a marked decrease December. In July 2013, the prices of the industrial production increased by 1.03% as comparatively to the corresponding month of the previous year, on an overall basis 1. The industrial production is one of the few sectors which are marking a certain recovery at the EU level and that of the EU member states. The evolution of the Romania industrial production is also included in this allegation. Certainly, the positive evolution at the EU level is marked by the evolution of the industrial production in Germany, France, Italy and other countries, among which Ireland, Hungary, Denmark, Holland, with a relatively smaller weight. For 2013 and 2014, Romania recorded increases of the industrial production computed as seasonally adjusted series, atrend which was maintained in the first seven months of 2013 also. If considering the distribution by large groups, the increase of the industrial production in Romania has been more marked for the group of the capital goods industry and significantly lower for the group of the current usage goods. From the point of view of the industrial production increase recorded by Romania in 2013 and 2014, it can be seen that the production has been significantly higher as against the corresponding period of the previous year. During the first seven months of 2014, overall, industry recorded a growth by 3.9%. It is worthy to note that the increase recorded by Romania in September 2010 is higher comparatively with all the other European states which, most of them, excepting Poland, Slovenia and Holland, recorded decreases, in same cases quite significant. 1 Anghel M.G. şi alţii (2012). Production and Trade of Goods, Revista Română de Statistică Supliment 118 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

119 The situation keeps on being more or less the same in January 2011, comparatively with 2010 when the increase recorded by Romania is exceeded by Poland and Czech Republic only. In 2012, 2013 and 2014 the industry followed a growing trend. However, these increases by groups have been counter-weighted the decreases recorded by the groups of current usage goods and durable goods. The indices of the industrial production, in comparatively with 2009 and 2008, are showing, both on the overall and for the extractive and manufacturing industries branches, for all quarters as far as the first one is concerned. The indices for the first half of 2014 have manifested increases in all months. The manufacturing industry, electric energy, gas and water, as major sections, on one side and the capital goods industry, the intermediary goods industry and the power industry on the other side, with important increases are responsible for the mentioned increases at the industry level. The industrial production indices, as adjusted series, are also indicating a positive trend, although is circumscribed within increase levels relatively modest as to the overall industry, but nevertheless significant for the sub-branch electric and thermo energy, gas and water and, respectively, the capital goods industry. The value indices of the new orders marked decreases in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, and during the period the trend reversed. In 2014 comparatively with 2013, the situation changed in respect of the new orders within the manufacturing industry from Romania, mainly in the situation of the manufacturing industry working on orders basis. Significant increases have been recorded in the case of orders value index for the manufacturing of chemical substances and products group, metallurgical industry, and manufacturing of road conveyance autovehicles, out of which absolutely remarkable was the increase recorded for the external market, as a consequence of the well known evolution of the Dacia cars exports to west-european countries, mainly to Germany. The actual supplies of goods established on the basis of the turnover indices are reflecting an uncertainty tendency as regards the producers capability to capitalize the achieved production, on one hand and the payment difficulties of the buyers, on the other hand. The labor productivity increased yearly over the period 2002 July 2014, simultaneously with the decrease of the occupied population, so Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

120 during the first seven months of 2014, the productivity of labor grew by 3.1% per total industry. References Anghel M.G. şi alţii (2012). Production and Trade of Goods, Revista Română de Statistică Supliment Anghelache, C. (2014) România Starea economică pe calea redresării, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Anghelache, C. (2013) - România Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Voineagu V., Furtună F., Voineagu M., Ştefănescu C., Factorial analysis of socio-economic phenomena, in regional profile, RAMIS Publishing House, Bucharest, Romania, 2002 *** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 1-12/2012, 1-12/2013 şi 1-7/2014 editat de Institutul Naţional de Statistică *** Comunicate de presă pe anul 2014 ale Institutului Naţional de Statistică 120 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

121 Estimation and Variance Decomposition in a Small-size DSGE Model Oana Simona HUDEA (CARAMAN) a,b a Post PhD Researcher Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest b Lecturer PhD, Bucharest University Abstract The purpose of this study is to make a grounded estimation-based analysis of the Romanian economy, considering several central economic variables, aggregated at macroeconomic level. By resorting to a basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the final equations of which are briefly described herein, and to the Bayes theorem imposing the setting of priors for the parameters to be estimated, the paper reveals the output obtained, in compliance with the methodological steps previously rendered, the main results, relating to the check of plots, the posterior distribution and the variance decomposition of the model variables being presented and discussed from an economic perspective. Key words: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, Bayes theorem, parameter estimation, posterior distribution, variance decomposition JEL codes: C11, C13, C52, C68 1. Introduction The intention of the study is to estimate a last generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model prototype by resorting to the Bayesian analysis. The small model called in this paper takes into account two representative rational economic agents, households and firms, acting on a monopolistic market and aiming at optimising their characteristic functions, maximisation of satisfaction for the first one and minimisation of costs for the second one. Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

122 The model deals with 8 endogenous variables, among which 3 state variables, 4 jumpers, 3 static variables and one observable, namely the gross domestic product. The latter, used in logarithm and differentiated, is associated with quarterly data taken from NIS, ranging form 2000Q1 to 2014Q2. The analysis, specific to the real business cycle approach, considers also the occurrence of 2 technology level-related structural shocks which impact on the model variables, determinant for their fluctuation in time: the permanent technology level shock and the investment-specific technology level shock, as in Greenwood et al. (2000). The paper is structured according to the following pattern: section 2 - Model and Data - renders the model selected equations transposed into the Dynare code to be implemented in Matlab, as well as some preliminary information on the model data, section 3 - Methodology, Results and Discussions - starts by listing several steps in undergoing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium estimation of parameters and continues with the description of the posterior distribution of parameters, with the representation of the log-posterior and log-likelihood kernel check plots and with the analysis of the variance decomposition of the model variables, all of them construed accordingly, and section 4 - Conclusions - synthesises the main results obtained. 2. Model and Data The model approached in this paper is a small standard RBC (Real Business Cycle) model, similar to the one rendered by Griffoli (2010), but reconsidered from the perspective of the real wage and real interest rate equations. For concision reasons, only the final equations, prepared for implementation in Dynare (Matlab), are presented below: F.O.C. related to consumption, as one solution to the household problem: 1 1 α 1 z 1 α ( ) 1, t+ 1 z2, t z2, t+ 1 = β Εt α k ( e lt + 1) + (1 δ ) e [1] ct ct + 1 where c represents the household consumption, β, the subjective discount factor, Et, the value expected at time t, α, the capital share in total production, kt, the capital stock held, lt, the labour force provided by household, δ, the capital depreciation rate and zt, the technology level, captured in two instances (permanent technology level and investmentspecific technology level) F.O.C. related to labour force, as the complementary solution to the same problem above: 122 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

123 ζ Programs for Romania s Economic Recovery in the Horizon 2020 Perspective c α α z 1 1, t α ( 1 α ) k ( e ) l t = t 1 t 1 lt where ζ represents the spare time utility parameter The Cobb-Douglas production function of firms: z 1 ( ) α 1, e l α t yt = kt 1 t [3] where yt represents the production obtained by firms The equation of capital stock used by firms: z 2, t kt = ( 1 δ ) kt 1 + e it [4] where it represents the investments The aggregate demand-supply equilibrium on the market of goods and services: y t = ct + it [5] The technology level-related AR(1) processes: z 1, t = ρ 1 z1, t 1 + e1, t [6] ρ z e [7] z 2, t = 2 2, t 1 + 2, t If several endogenous variables are deduced within the model, the level of production is previously given, under the differentiated logarithmic form of the 2000 quarterly-based average prices expressed in million RON, for fourteen years and a half since the baseline time, the related data being provided by NIS. Also, the prior distribution of the model parameters is established according to the literature in the matter, considering the previously obtained results specific to our country. The technology level shocks are deemed to represent an essential element of the analysis, being the main generating source of fluctuations for the model variables. 3. Methodology, Results and Discussions The method used to estimate the model parameters, based on the Bayesian analysis, involves the establishment of the log-likelihood: T n 1 1 ' 1 ( Θ ) = ( π ) Σ ( ) Σ ( ) M T X T T X T T ln L X, M ln 2 ln X X X X T T where L(ΘM XT,M) is the log-likelihood funion, XT, the observable endogenous variables, n, the number of observables, X T, the expected value of X T and, its var-covariance matrix Σ X T Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/ [2]

124 and the determination of the posterior log-kernel: ln K( Θ M X T, M ) = ln L( Θ M X T, M ) + ln p( Θ M M ) where P(ΘM M) is the prior distribution of the model parameters The posterior-log kernel is then maximized using an optimization numeric routine, resulting in the related Hessian matrix and posterior distribution mode (Table 1): Table 1. Results from posterior maximisation parameters prior mean mode s.d. prior pstdev α beta β beta δ beta ζ gamma ρ beta ρ beta σe, invg Inf σe, invg Inf To get the posterior distribution, the MH (Metropolis-Hastings) algorithm is called. This MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chains) type method, which pursues to simulate such distribution by generating Markov chains denoting possible estimations of the model parameters, thereafter selected from the perspective of their relevance, based on filtering rules, is implemented in Dynare, a specific tool of the well-known Matlab software. Subsequent to the model implementation, various results have been generated, these ones being presented and discussed below. Table 2 renders the posterior distribution and confidence interval for the model parameters: Table 2. Estimation results parameters prior mean post mean conf. interval pstdev α β δ ζ ρ ρ σe, Inf σe, Inf 124 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

125 The estimates indicate a classical value, as per the related literature, of the subjective discount factor (β), remaining fixed to 0.99, an imperceptibly higher capital share in total production (α), of 0.35, and a lower rate of capital depreciation (δ), decreased to 0.02, the last two elements inducing the increase of capital stocks. The spare time utility parameter (ζ) reaches a value of 1.74, lower than the one established as prior, but a little bit superior to those obtained in previous personal studies, being, overall, in line with the results encountered in the field. Concerning the technology level autoregressive parameters (ρ1, ρ2), we observe a very high persistence of the fist one, of 0.99, its current value being finally influenced by its past value, other determining factors having a quite insignificant influence, and, as expected, reduced persistence of the second one, amounting to 0,49. As for the standard deviation of the technology structural shocks (σe,1, σe,2), although having started from the same prior value, have slowly differentiated from one another, reaching 0.006, respectively 0.008, therefore suggesting some informative characteristics of data in determining the estimation results. Economically speaking, such values denote a reduced degree of volatility, with positive effects on the anticipative analysis capacity. An aggregate representation of both log-posterior and log-likelihood kernel check plots is rendered in Figure 1. Figure 1. Check plots alpha beta delta psi rho rho sigma x 10-3 sigma x 10-3 log-post log-lik kernel Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

126 In the graph above, the green line reflects the informative level of data, while the transition to the blue line indicates the influence on the same of the previously established prior distributions. If the likelihood is quite flat, the prior distribution will clearly show up in the posterior one. Going forward, to the model endogenous variables, we undertake to underline several aspects, such as their variance and the variance decomposition depending on the considered shocks. Table 3. Variance of model variables and its decomposition (%) variable s.d. var. var. dec. (e1) var. dec. (e2) y c k i l y/l z z Table 3 presents, beyond the standard deviation, respectively its square value denoting the variance of the model variables, also the contribution of the model structural shocks, namely the permanent technology level shock and the investment-specific technology level shock, evidencing the main driving forces impacting on the real economy. As it can be seen, the permanent technology level sock greatly accounts for the variation of the variables considered. Save for the case of the investment-specific technology level, obviously wholly influenced by its related shock, there are just two variables for which this second shock is to be considered: investments (7.20%) and labour force (38.53%), it being reasonably explainable from the economic perspective, as a modification of the investment-related technology generates changes both as concerns the level of the investments and especially the number of employees needed by firms. 4. Conclusions The small-size standard model approached, encompassing eight endogenous variables and two exogenous ones, estimated by resorting to a 126 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

127 Bayesian approach, revealed a slightly perceptible, still existing, informative characteristic of gross-domestic product-related data, the prior distributions having a significant role in influencing the output, this being mainly due to the setting of the same in compliance with previously obtained results. Regarding the posterior distributions of the model parameters, they indicated, among others, an increased capital stock level and a reduced volatility of the technology-related structural shocks. Finally, but not at least, the variance decomposition of the model variables suggested the significant impact of the permanent technology shock on the fluctuation of the same, the investment-specific technology shock being relevant exclusively for the investment and labour force items. Acknowledgments This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development , project number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/ Performance and excellence in doctoral and postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain. References Fernandez-Villaverde, J. (2009). The Econometrics of DSGE Models, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper (14677) Greenwood, J.; Hercowitz, Z.; Krusell, P. (2000). The role of investmentspecific technological change in the business cycle, European Economic Review, 44 (2000): Griffoli, T.M. (2010). An introduction to the solution & estimation of DSGE models, Dynare v4 - User Guide, Public beta version Hudea (Caraman), O.S. (2013). DSGE Modelling Architecture. Exemplification of the Romania Case, IECS Kydland, F. E.; Prescott, E. C. (1982). Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica, 50 (6): Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

128 The Inflation (Consumer Price) Evolution Lecturer Mădălina ANGHEL PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract The authors focus on the evolution of inflation and consumer price in Romania. The purpose of the research is based on the fact that the inflation is one of the main phenomena that are affecting the national economy of our country. Therefore, the inflation is to be properly analysed and monitored, as its implications are capable of generating leverage-style effects on other faces of the economic and social life. Key words: inflation, price index, target, consumption, An important element to consider when evaluating the economic evolution of a country over a period of time consists of the way the consumer prices developed, both on an overall basis and by groups of goods and services, as well as of the dual comparison with the planned, forecasted target and the outcomes of the previous year. In the context of the steady concern as regards the adjustment of the system of the income collecting, based on the unique quota of taxation, as well as bringing the Fiscal Code to the level of correlative terms, in line with the actual situation of the country, in there are a number of events occurring and worth to be outlined. First of all, the discussions between the Romanian Government and the I.M.F., have been finalized and the installments out of the granted credit were allocated. Practically, all of them, over 20 billion euro, were integrally transferred. There have been a number of elements which the I.M.F., intransigent and willing to see a market economy in action, did not agree with. Thus, for instance, there have been many concerns in respect of how to convince the I.M.F. to agree with a higher deficit of GDP or to keep on accepting the situation of having certain subsidies at the level of the national economy. 128 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

129 The second essential phenomenon of the years is given by the divergent evolution between the consumer price index, as an overall and in structure, in comparison with the evolution and appreciation of the national currency, the new leu, against the two currencies which are forming the foreign exchange basket, respectively Euro and USD. Since a couple of years, as a consequence of the policy run by the National Bank of Romania, which undertook the responsibility of targeting and fixing the inflation at certain levels, the foreign exchange evolution of the national currency followed a trajectory which, from a economic and financial point of view, proved to be a positive one but, meantime, generated a negative effect on the Romanian exports, or for those working abroad and those living in the country, being meantime non-conform with the actual economical situation of the country. We can outline two contradictory evolutions which we could identify from this point of view. On the one side, the increase of the consumption propensity of the population and, hence, the imperative requirement for steps meant to stop this tendency. Thus, at a first stage, the interests for the population deposits have been reduced after which, in order to improve the attractiveness of saving, they have been increased again aiming a sole purpose, respectively tempering the population propensity to consumption. The austerity steps being taken have stopped, in a natural way, the population consumption with immediate effect on the economic growth and deterioration of the standard of life. The revival measures of salaries and pensions, but also other social attempts, did not succeeded to improve, upon expectations, the incomes and subsequently the quality of life. On the other hand, in its concern as to targeting the inflation, the National Bank aimed to implement and control, permanently, the evolution of the foreign exchange rate, consequently the position of the national currency against the two foreign currencies euro and dollar. Another typical element is given by the steady concern of the Executive and, mainly, of the National Bank, to observe the goals declared as regards the inflation targeting. Despite all steps being taken targeting slipped out of an actual control, lining up outside the forecasts, from 2010 until June After 2013, a reverse trend of inflation evolution begins, kept under control. Among the non-foodstuffs recording a high average increase there are the natural gas, the thermo energy, tobacco and cigarettes, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/

130 electric energy, water sewage sanitation, hygiene and cosmetics, postal services, inter-urban transport. Price increase in July 2014 percents Increase of consumption Average increase of consumption Indicators prices in July 2014, prices during the period against: June 2014 December I- 31.VII I- 31.VII Total -0,1 1,1 0,2 0,2 Foodstuff *) -0,3-0,2 0,0 0,0 Nonfoodstuff 0,0 2,1 0,5 0,3 Services 0,4 1,3 0,3 0,2 *) Including drinks. Data source: National Institute of Statistics, Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2014 Another possible analysis on the increase of the consumer price index might take into consideration the influences of the administrated prices which recorded an average increase of over 2,9%. Consumption price indexes, December previous year= % ,3 117,8 114,1 109,3 108,6 104, ,6 107,9 104, *) Provisional data. Data source: National Institute of Statistics ,2 105,33 104,5 101, * 130 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2015

131 A comparative survey on the annual average inflation in the EU member countries during the period shows that, along with Hungary, Romania was recording a high level of the inflation annual average level. If proceeding to a careful analysis, we should note also that there are only three-four groups of goods which recorded a particular increase and generated the impossibility of hitting the forecasted target. Thus, for instance, the consumer taxes (taxes on vice), respectively the excises on alcohol and tobacco products, as well as luxury goods or products such as natural gas or thermo-energy, have been extremely high, having a major influence on the rhythm of increase of the consumer price index (inflation). The annual average rate of inflation at the EU level, in 2013* measured on the harmonized indices basis (IAPC) Provisional data Data source Eurostat, calculations INS *) References Anghelache, C. (2014) România Starea economică pe calea redresării, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Anghelache, C. (2008) Tratat de statistică, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/