ANALYSIS OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT EVOLUTION FOR 2015

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1 ANALYSIS OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT EVOLUTION FOR 2015 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD. Bucharest University of Economic Studies Artifex University of Bucharest Assoc. prof. Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD. Artifex University of Bucharest Marius Popovici PhD. Student Bucharest University of Economic Studies Abstract The analysis of the Gross Domestic Product provides a high-level overview on the evolution of the Romanian economy. In this paper, the authors outline the main aspects regarding the progress of the GDP, as main indicator of the economic growth: the quarterly evolution of GDP gross and adjusted series, the analysis on categories of sources, the contribution of various uses to the formation of GDP. Also, the authors discuss some external factors that impact on the dynamic of the indicator, such as the political changes. The evolution and situation for 2015 is also important from another viewpoint: it represents a base for the future, especially for The evolutions of the global economy raise some concerns on the possibility of another shock, thus the monitoring of macroeconomic trends is especially sensitive and the results can be used by decision makers. Key words: GDP, evolution, activity, seasonal, contributions, resources The analysis of the Gross Domestic Product, the most complex result indicator for Romania, is of great importance. This happens, partly, because the specialized international institutions issued certain forecasts regarding the evolution of this indicator for the next years; and, on the other hand, The Romanian Institute for Economic Forecasting made evaluations on this topic. In November 2015 when took place an interesting government change, followed by an election year 2016, the macroeconomic activity still goes on following no development program, while most of activities follow the initial platform of USL easily amendable by PSD and other co-allied political parties platforms. It is important to notice that that in the first trimester of 2015, compared to the previous trimester, the GDP, increased by 1,1% in real terms. As against the fourth trimester of 2014, the GDP registered an increase of 3.7% on the gross series and 3.8% for the seasonable adjusted series on the same trimester of

2 Evolution of quarterly GDP Table 1 Trim. I Trim. II Trim. III Trim. IV An - in % as against same period in the previous year ,2 101,6 104,2 105,3 103,5 Gross Series ,3 101,7 103,2 102,8 103, ,3 103,4 103,6 103,7 103, ,1 102,0 104,1 105,0 - Seasonally adjusted ,0 102,3 103,2 102,8 - series ,0 103,7 103,6 103,8 - - in % as against previous quarter - Seasonally adjusted ,1 101,6 100,8 101,3 - series ,1 100,1 101,7 100, ,3 99,8 101,5 101,1 - Source: The National Institute of Statistics, press release no.58/8 March 2016 As for the analysis of data comprised in the table no.1, between 2013 and 2015, compared to the similar period of the last year, for each trimester the GDP registered increases, both for gross series, and for the seasonal adjusted series. The less increases were registered regularly in the second trimester of each year. Compared to the trimester achievements in all three years, there were increases as consequence of a good managerial activity at macroeconomic level. For the 12 analyzed trimesters, a decrease of 0.3% was registered as against the previous month for the second trimester of As to the annual growth compared to previous year, increases are registered as follows: 103.5% in 2013 as against 2012, 103% in 2014 as against 2013, and 103.7% in 2015 as against The calculations were made according to the methodology used for the gross data series. In absolute expression, the GDP for each trimester in 2015 is presented in the table no.2. Quarterly GDP in 2015, seasonally adjusted series Table 2 Trim. I Trim. II Trim. III Trim. IV Million lei, current prices , , , ,3 % as against previous quarter 101,3 99,8 101,5 101,1 % as against same period in the previous year ,7 103,6 103,8 Source: The National Institute of Statistics, press release no.58/8 March 2016 Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 3 /

3 For the whole year. the GDP value is 709,198.5 million Lei. In Euro, for the exchange rate of 4.50 Lei for 1 euro, the GDP registered 157,599.7 million euro. The GDP in seasonal adjusted data, estimated for IV trimester of 2015 was 180,047.3 million Lei in current prices, increasing in real terms by 1.1% as against III trimester in 20115, and by 3.8% as against the IV trimester of The analysis of the GDP between 2000 and 2014 on source category is presented in the following graphic: GDP evolution seasonally adjusted series, Chart 1 Source: The National Institute of Statistics, press release no.58/8 March 2016 The estimated GDP for the IV trimester in 2015 was 209,996.0 million Lei in current prices, increasing in real terms with 3.7% as against the IV trimester in

4 Quarterly GDP in gross series Table 3 Trim. I Trim. II Trim. III Trim. IV 2015 Million lei, current prices , , , , ,6 % as against same period in the previous year 104,3 103,4 103,6 103,7 103,7 Source: The National Institute of Statistics, Press release no.58/8 March The GDP estimated for 2015 was 710,266.6 million Lei in current increasing in real terms with 3.7% as against Data regarding the GDP in current prices, volume indices and deflator indices, gross series and seasonal adjusted series for the IV trimester in 2015 are analyzed. For the GDP increase for 2015 all economic branches are implied, except for the agriculture, forestry and fishing activities. Thus, important contributions came from wholesale and retail, autos and motor repair, transportation and storage, hotels and restaurants by 15.8% weight in GDP, and an increase of activity volume with a 6.4% increase. For construction activities, an increase of 8.8% was registered with a weight of 7.4% in GDP formation. Communications and information, with a reduced weight in GDP formation (5.7%), registered a significant increase of the activity volume of 11.8% in 2015 as against In 2015, industry weight was increased as to the GDP formation and registered a 2.0% increased activity. The net taxes per product had have a 12.1% weight in GDP formation with an increased volume of activity of 5.7%. These activities shared 15.8% from GDP, with activities increased by.4% in 2015 as against Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 3 /

5 Table 4: Contribution of resources categories to the formation and growth of the Gross Domestic Product in Q4 and 2015 formation - % growth - % Trim. IV Year Trim. IV Year Agriculture, silviculture and fishing 2,8 4,2-0,2-0,5 Industry 22,1 23,2 0,3 0,5 Constructions 13,4 7,4 1,4 0,6 Engross and retail trade; repairing autos and motorcycles; transport and 15,3 15,8 0,6 1,0 storage; hotels and restaurants Information and communications 5,3 5,7 0,5 0,6 Financial and insurance brokerage 3,1 3,5 0,0 0,0 Real estate transactions 7,3 8,0 0,2 0,2 Professional, scientifical and technical activities; administrative 8,4 7,3 0,5 0,3 service and support service activities Public administration and defense; social insurances in the public system; 9,0 10,2 0,0 0,2 education; health and social assistance Show, cultural and entertainment activities; repairing home-used products and other services 2,4 2,6 0,1 0,1 Gross Value Added total 89,1 87,9 3,4 3,0 Net product taxation 10,9 12,1 0,3 0,7 Gross Domestic Product 100,0 100,0 3,7 3,7 Source: The National Institute of Statistics, Press Release no.58/8 march 2016 As to the utility of GDP, the increase is owed to the final consume expenses of the population household, whose volume increased by 6.2% contributing by 3.8% to the GDP growth and the gross formation of fix capital, with a contribution of 1.8%, as a consequence of an increase of 7.5% of the GDP volume. In 2015, a negative contribution to GDP was produced by the net export (-1.6%), following the increase by 4.7% of the export volume for goods and services in correlation with increased imports of goods and services by 8.4%. 54

6 The contribution of the categories of activities to the GDP formation and growth Table 5 formation - % growth - % Trim. IV Year Trim. IV Year Final effective total consumption 72,4 75,1 4,7 4,0 Final individual effective consumption of households 65,6 68,0 4,6 3,9 Expenses for the final consumption of households 58,7 61,3 4,5 3,8 Expenses for the final consumption of non-profit entities in the service of households 0,6 0,3 0,0 0,0 Expenses for the final individual consumption of the public administrations Final collective effective 6,3 6,4 0,1 0,1 consumption of public administrations 6,8 7,1 0,1 0,1 Gross formation of fixed capital 25,2 24,5 2,6 1,8 Variation of inventories 4,7 1,0-1,5-0,5 Net export of goods and services -2,3-0,6-2,1-1,6 Export of goods and services 34,2 40,9-0,7 1,9 Import of goods and services 36,5 41,5 1,4 3,5 Gross Domestic Product 100,0 100,0 3,7 3,7 Source: The National Institute of Statistics, Press release no. 58/8 March Conclusions The in-depth analysis of the Gross Domestic Product, as presented in this paper, provides key information on the macro-economic status of Romania. The evolutions of the main indicator are characterized by the influence of various factors, and the new information adds value to the study. The economic achievements for 2015 represent an important marker for the social-economic evolution of Romania for This year seems to be extremely significant with regard to the actual context where the evolutions of the central Asian countries seem to configure the risk of a Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 3 /

7 new financial-economic crisis similar to that of 2006 that reached its peak in 2008, Romania included. The sudden change registered in 2012, followed by successive increases for 2013, 2014 and 2015, seem to fail in Based on this observation, someone can see that in 2015, for all trimesters, the GDP registered increases as against the similar period of the preceding year. References - Anghelache C., Manole A., Anghel M.G. (2015). Modele macroeconomice de analiză şi previziune a creşterii economice (PIB) Evoluţii în primul trimestru al anului 2015, comunicare susţinută în cadrul Seminarului Ştiinţific Naţional Octav Onicescu organizat de Societatea Română de Statistică în data de 11 iunie Dumitrescu D., Anghel M.G., Anghelache C. (2015). Analysis Model of GDP Dependence on the Structural Variables, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXII, No.4 (605), Winter, pp , revistă indexată în bazele de date internaţionale EconLit, RePEc (IDEAS, Econpapers), DOAJ, EBSCO Publishing, ICAAP, ISSN Anghelache C., Manole A., Anghel M.G. (2015). Analysis of final consumption and gross investment influence on GDP multiple linear regression model, Theoretical and Applied Economics, No. 3/2015 (604), Autumn, pg , ISSN (ediția print) / ISSN (ediția online), categoria B+, revistă indexată în baze de date internaţionale EconLit, RePEc (IDEAS, Econpapers), DOAJ, EBSCO Publishing, ICAAP - Anghelache C., Anghel M.G. (2015). GDP Analysis Methods through the Use of Statistical Econometric Models, ECONOMICA Scientific and didactic journal, nr. 1 (91), Chişinău, Republica Moldova, pp , ISSN: , categoria B, revistă indexată în baza de date internaţionale OAJI (Open Academic Journals Index) - Anghelache C. (2008). Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică, Editura Economică, Bucureşti, ISBN Anghelache, C. (2015). România Starea economică în continuă creştere, Editura Economică, Bucureşti, ISBN Anghelache C., Anghel M.G. (2015). Statistică. Teorie, concepte, indicatori şi studii ce caz, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti, 248 pg., ISBN Murarita I. Ciurlau F.C. (2008). Tendencies of the Gross Domestic Product at the level of the South-Western developing Region Oltenia, Revista Tinerior Economisti(The Young Economists Journal), Volume (Year): 1 (2008), Issue (Month): 11 (November), pp Chang A.C., Li P. (2015). Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number Schonauer(Sacală) C. (2015). Developments of regional gross domestic product and the unemployment rate in Romania during , Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), Volume (Year): 3 (2015), Issue (Month): 2 (December), pp Sîrbu R.M., Borca C., Farkas Z.B. (2014). Debate On Romania Integration In European Union. SEA - Practical Application of Science, Volume (Year): (2014), Issue (Month): 3 (April), pp The National Institute of Statistics, press release no.58/8 March