Pensions and the Financial Crisis an International Perspective. Tommie Doubell
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1 Pensions and the Financial Crisis an International Perspective Tommie Doubell
2 Agenda Is it relevant? Overview of pension systems Impact of the Financial Crisis Lessons for South Africa
3 South Africa vs. The World Less serious impact on South Africa Lessons to learn
4 IORP Location - Regional clusters Ireland: Anglo-Saxon region (UK, US) contract law / trustees DC focus asset pooling focus Netherlands (PPI): Broad regional base DC focus corporate control broad experience; pension services Belgium Continental European region DB / DC integral pension offering checks & balances governance East-European region DC focus admin hubs uniform DC schemes Luxembourg: Broad regional base DB / DC asset pooling focus corporate control financial service providers Liechtenstein: German-speaking (DE, CH, AT, IT, SCAN) DB / DC focus integral pension offering rules-based ; insurance culture
5 International Pension Systems United States Significant DB liabilities (62% of Fortune 1000 companies have DB funds; 73% of these funds are open ) New funds mostly DC (401 k) Highly exposed to investment markets (avg. 60% in equities) Germany Mostly DB pure DC not allowed Companies carry liability on its books via book reserves Direktzusage (direct pension promise) Conservative investment (85%-90% in fixed interest)
6 International Pension Systems The Netherlands Mostly DB A few very large industry-wide schemes (80) Professional management (investment & governance) Conservative investments (70%-80% in fixed interest) Recent move from unfunded to funded past service
7 International Pension Systems United Kingdom Older Funds DB, newer DC (about 70% DB) Company sponsored funds Trust based system High equity component (60%-70%) Pensions Protection Fund Shortfall is a debt on the employer
8 International Pension Systems Ireland Older Funds DB, newer DC (Assets: 90bn DB vs 30bn DC) Company sponsored funds Trust based system High equity component (65%-75%) No Protection Fund No debt on the employer
9 Recent US & Europe history Social Security (first pillar provision) important DB legacy Mortality improvements Increases cost of pensions More pensioners relative to active members Size of pension fund increases relative to company
10 International Pension Systems Key Statistics for Large Irish State-Owned Pension Schemes Company Group Net Profit / Surplus Size of Corporate Group Net Assets Market Capitalisation (30/10/2008) Size of Group Sponsored DB Liabilities DB DB Pension Pension Scheme Funding Scheme Status Liabilities Assets Source Published Annual Reports Dated M M M M M An Post ,091 (2,193) 95% 31/12/07 Bord Gais 142 1, (235) 101% 31/12/07 Bord Na Mona (245) 73% 28/3/07 CIE ,549 (1,711) 91% 31/12/07 Coillte Teo 40 1, (245) 73% 31/12/07 ESB 432 3,366-3,830 (5,182) 74% 31/12/07 RTÉ (979) 102% 31/12/07 VHI (136) 85% 28/2/08 Sub-total State Owned 840 7,039 9,178 (10,926) 84%
11 International Pension Systems Key Statistics for Large Publicly Quoted Irish Companies Size of Corporate Size of Group Sponsored DB Liabilities Source Company Group Net Profit / Surplus Group Net Assets Market Capitalisatio n 30/10/2008 DB Pension Scheme Assets DB Pension Scheme Liabilities Funding Status Published Annual Reports Dated M M M M M AIB Plc. 1,949 9,827 3,214 3,693 (4,062) 91% 31/12/07 Bank of Ireland Plc. 1,704 6,482 1,634 3,967 (4,752) 83% 31/3/08 C&C Group Plc (154) 110% 29/2/08 CRH Plc. 1,438 7,954 8,882 1,846 (1,931) 96% 31/12/07 FBD Holdings Plc (116) 95% 31/12/07 Glanbia Plc (497) 77% 30/12/07 Greencore Group (573) 95% 31/12/07 Independent News & M edia (336) 81% 31/12/07 Irish Life & Permanent Plc , ,262 (1,293) 98% 31/12/07 Kerry Group 246 1,229 3, (806) 87% 2/1/08 Waterford Wedgwood (233) (320) (853) 83% 3/1/08 S ub-total Private S ector 6,310 30,370 19,784 13,653 (15,373) 89% Grand Total 7,150 37,409 19,784 22,831 (26,299) 87%
12 Impact of financial crisis USA - Fortune 1000: funding level drop by 28 percentage points Source: Watson Wyatt Worldwide
13 USA - Fortune 1000: Analysis of funding levels Source: Watson Wyatt Worldwide
14 Impact of financial crisis Lower funding levels UK about 95% of funds under funded Ireland about 90% of funds under funded Due to: Reduction in asset values (equities) Lower interest rates also: guaranteed increases, continuing mortality improvements, high long term inflation expectations
15 Impact of financial crisis Further implications Pensions impact on sponsoring company s balance sheet Plan sponsors business under pressure little scope to fund shortfall Serious under funding more conservative investments? Final straw for DB funds Members cannot afford to retire
16 Impact of financial crisis Protective measures Call upon insurance / Pensions Protection Funds ( but increased levies) Relax rules on breaching Minimum Funding Standards UK recovery periods of 20 years accepted, back-end loading, contingent assets Ireland was 3 year to recover to 100% - extended to 10 years. 20 years. avg. future lifetime of actives Ireland measures: State annuity purchase scheme sells annuities at cost to insolvent schemes. More protection to active members pension increases to pensioners ranks with pension increases of actives & scope to reduce benefits of pensioners and deferred members
17 Protection Funds United States Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation Deficit of $11bn at September 2008 United Kingdom Pension Protection Fund (from 2004) Deficits Growing 100 schemes in PPF; another 290 in assessment period
18 Impact of Financial Crisis Interest Rates IAS 19 require valuation at high quality corporate bond yields Yields much higher than gilt yields Could lead to undervaluation of liabilities
19 Impact of Financial Crisis
20 Impact of Financial Crisis
21 What can we learn? Social security safety-net much smaller in SA occupational pensions are crucial Be aware of risks (investment, plan sponsor, demographic, etc.) Implications for DC (advise members, suitable products) Consider institutional protection measures
22 Thanks to Members of Dr. Heubeck G.m.b.H ESOFAC Belgium Pragma Consulting Allvisa AG Heubeck AG Peraita y Asociados Winter & Associates Logos Ltd Maher Consulting Actuary Coyle Hamilton Willis Crenca & Associati ESOFAC Luxembourg S.A. Correspondent Baltic LnBB Actuarissen Rietmulder C.S Barnett Waddingham LLP
23 Contact details Tommie Doubell Tel: or us at one of our branches; Centurion Kroonstad Cape Town
24 2009 Convention Lite and the Pensions, Health and Life Seminars May 2009 Sandton Convention Centre Johannesburg, South Africa
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