Christoph Harwood Marksman Consulting LLP

Transcription

1 Financing Eco-refurbishment a local authority solution November 2012 Christoph Harwood Marksman Consulting LLP

2 Objectives To present financing opportunity for local authorities for large scale home eco-refurbishment plan Energy efficiency and renewables Private and social housing Green Deal aligned programme Delivery of local economic benefits Job creation Broader based low carbon economy Fuel poverty Public health Carbon savings Based on work carried out 2009 onwards Energy Saving Trust Birmingham, Newcastle, London, West Sussex, Greater Manchester, Scotland, Wales, Leeds City Region LEEP, financed by the Sainsbury Family Charitable Trusts. 2

3 Changes to the energy efficiency sector Economic Activity CESP CERT Green Deal & ECO Warm homes/warm Front Solar PV programmes

4 Benefits for Birmingham 15,000 homes Provisional Direct Net Net additional Expenditure 100m FTEs GVA 10-15m 20-25m 10-15m Energy expenditure saved pa 2-3m Carbon Savings (KT pa) 20 Net Additional Economic Effects allows for both direct economic effects and the net economic effects from the relevant multipliers. However, they are then adjusted downwards for leakage, substitution, deadweight and displacement Source; EST analysis 4

5 Policy issues Policy area Green Deal Current understanding No upfront costs to the house holder for work done Will provide charge on electricity bill Golden Rule 25 years tenor Energy efficiency only renewables require FIT/RHI Supplier Obligation (ECO) New supplier obligation from 2013 ( 1.3b pa) Vulnerable Affordable Warmth ( 0.35b) Community ( 0.19b) 10% in rural areas Hard to treat homes Carbon Savings ( 0.76b) Provides ability to make uneconomic measures economic 5

6 Golden Rule, CS ECO, Fuel Poverty Illustrative Total cost Total cost Golden Rule 6,000 6,000 ECO 2,270 ECO Variable Variable LA or HA subsidy Standing charge Green Deal Standing charge Green Deal 3,730 Green Deal Before After DECC ECO CS illustration Occupancy test indicates that full Green Deal plan will not be viable. Part payment by LA or HA fills the gap

7 Social housing the view of the tenant Illustrative Total cost Variable Standing charge Without Green Deal Total cost Variable Green Deal Standing charge With Green Deal Golden Rule Existing tenant better off when Green Deal plan in place New tenant on choice based letting moving into property that is cheaper to heat Main risk is fewer members in incoming household may mean occupancy test would not have worked => use mix funding, assuming low usage

8 CS ECO, Fuel Poverty Illustrative 5.5% interest year one 6,000 6,000 ECO 2,270 2,270 ECO 1300 Fuel poverty subsidy Green Deal Green Deal Gross benefit GD payment Net benefit % of average heat use 75% of benefits Source; EST, Marksman Consulting analysis

9 Social housing and Green Deal 5.5% interest year one Illustrative 6,000 6,000 1m insulates 268 solid wall properties ECO 2,270 2, ECO HA/LA 1m insulates 769 solid wall properties HA/LA Green Deal No use of Green Deal Use of Green Deal Source; EST, Marksman Consulting analysis

10 Financing the Green Deal role of public sector finance Private Sector Commercial banks Bonds First call on payments Public Sector GIB Local authorities Equity layer Junior debt First loss layer 10-30% Remainder of payments Maintained for life of programme

11 The Green Deal Finance Company (TGDFC)? Refinance programme Banks GIB Requesting funds from GIB Decision in Q State aid review Awaiting clarity on T&Cs 2. Fund pays GDP Green Deal Provider 3. Pays fund over upto 25 years 1. Measures delivered to property

12 Creating enough Green Deal capacity Local authorities junior debt % GIB junior debt Private sector finance Total TGDFC with GIB support Gap that can be supported by LAs over time Green Deal requirements 12

13 Role of LAs for TGDFC TGDFC Uses capacity no revenue Expands capacity receives revenue Customer authorities Financing authorities Lending to TGDFC Refinance using TGDFC Use TGDFC operational support from offset

14 Margin from providing finance Provisional Market APR to consumer (~7.5%) set by TGDFC Operating costs LA costs Procurement Officer time LA Margin LA broader outcomes Jobs Fuel poverty Special areas Cost of capital LA support to householders Cost of measures Incentives TGDFC Local Authority GIB junior debt to TGDFC is 3.85% over Gilts PWLB is 0.8% over Gilts

15 First loss layer and revenue generated ( 75m programme) Revenue available ( m) Illustration Senior debt Junior debt/first loss Base case First loss layer (%)

16 Models based on appetite for input and output requirements Outcomes Provider Producer Promoter Resource/Risk 16

17 Local authorities Promoter model Finance vehicle(s) GDP 1 GDP 2 GDP 3 GDP 4 etc Approved GD providers Local authority broad marketing

18 LA Producer model Finance vehicle(s) GDP 1 GDP 2 GDP 3 GDP 4 etc Referral fee Sales & marketing Organisation Marketing for a panel of GDPs LA investment into own programme or third party vehicle 2-3m start up costs

19 Birmingham and Newcastle provider models Birmingham Cabinet decision in April 2011 Initial programme of 15,000 houses and 100m Option to extend to 60,000 and 400m OJEU and PQQ issued in Sep West Midland local authorities 11 other public sector organisations Includes own non-domestic 275m with option to extend to 1.5b Oct Carillion selected State aid application with TGDFC Newcastle Cabinet decision in July 2011 Recognised need to work with neighbouring authorities to achieve scale Open up to North East councils Cabinet decision to proceed passed in Jan 2012 OJEU issued in June Five local authorities committed from start and five with option to join Eleven housing associations Fourteen other public sector bodies Non-domestic included Oct 2012 Eight bidders pass PQQ and into ISOS

20 Local authority activity on Green Deal provider model Multiple areas of dialogue Option review Business case Developing regional support Procurement Black Country Scottish Government West Sussex Birmingham (1+22) Edinburgh London Newcastle (5+5) Leeds City Region Wrexham & Flintshire Greater Manchester

21 Financing offer to house owner Energy efficiency with Green Deal Lower cost energy bills Renewables with roof rental Free electricity ( ) pa ~ 8,000 Ownership ~ year Green Deal service charge CS- ECO help with hard to treat Finance vehicle Generation and export FIT Contribution from householder Potential for RHI 21

22 Local Authority Operating Model Finance Payments Other LA Housing Association Funds Fuel poverty funds Finance (Prudential borrowing or reserves) Finance vehicle Delivery Partner Green Deal + FIT payments Contract Marketing ECO Installation companies Energy Companies Install and manage PV Meter/deemed Benefits Green Deal Payments 22

23 Green Deal LA joint approach Anchor local authority Set up and run procurement process Manage ongoing programme Client authorities Access neighbours prudential borrowing or TGDFC Provide marketing support Anchor Contract Delivery Partner IPA IPA OPA Housing Association Partner Authorities Self financing with own prudential borrowing Initial; from start to achieve critical mass for tender Optional; named on OJEU with option to take on programme 15,000 out of 2-300,000 houses

24 Green Deal early adopters Laggards Early adopters Nationally early adopters can account for up to 13% of the population first target market Late majority Early majority Source; Grand Designs; Great British Refurb Campaign 24

25 Adoption rates and targets London three year target ( ) Early adopters (GBR) Interest with interest rate at 6% London solid solid wall early adopters (high) Market research London searly adopters (low) B&Q BG PAYS pilots BG2 BCC Stroud/SWEA Gentoo Target set North East Target BCC target 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

26 Total market size 5% market penetration Illustrative m Partner (investing) authorities Or Client authorities 1.5b 15,000 house, 75m 1.0b 10,000 house, 50m 0,5b 5,000 house, 25m Leeds Barnsley Bradford Calderdale Craven Harrogate Kirklees Selby Wakefield York North Yorks 26

27 Local Authority Green Deal Warehouse First loss risk retained TGDFC as the Green Deal Warehouse LA1 Bank finance Uniformity requirement LA2 LA3 Bond 3-500m etc

28 m Refinancing in 5m packages Illustrative Actual debt for programme is ~ 60m for 30% first loss layer Months

29 Capital requirements ten authority programme m 15 Illustrative Annual per authority Average annual investment Junior debt Senior debt Financing requirement ECO Programme size

30 Adoption risk Set price to householder based on a target of installations 75m House by house implementations Every house implementation covers its own costs and a share of start up costs Start up costs 1.5-2m Business case Procurement Operational set up post procurement

31 Time scale and other activities Provisional H1 H2 H1 H2 Decision points Sign up partners Demand research Procurement Live Parallel preparation Marketing/ adoption Jobs Planning Input from other LAs BCC live NCC procure State aid TGDFC

32 Summary Local authorities have core role to play Trusted by householders Access to low cost finance Fits with requirements on jobs, low carbon and fuel poverty Green Deal legislation is strong enabler Private sector finance does not seem to be available without public sector support ie local authorities and/or GIB Private sector delivery sector is supportive Local authorities are taking the lead Birmingham and Newcastle have enabled the programme Other UK local authorities are expected to follow Self-financing programme 32

33 Financing Eco-refurbishment Christoph Harwood Marksman Consulting LLP 33