Discussion of financial metrics for simple model points - IFRS Phase 2

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Brooke Park
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1 Discussion of financial metrics for simple model points - IFRS Phase 2

2 Disclaimer The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenters and should not be taken to represent those of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited, or the Institute of Actuaries of India.

3 Agenda part 1: Unit linked Contract specification Assumptions used Elements of IFRS Total Comprehensive Income (TCI) Projected balance sheets and profit signatures IFRS vs IGAAP Effect of variances and assumption changes on IFRS profit signature

4 Agenda part 2: Immediate annuity Contract specification Assumptions used Elements of IFRS Total Comprehensive Income (TCI) Projected balance sheets and profit signatures IFRS vs IGAAP Effect of variances and assumption changes on IFRS profit signature

5 Contract Specification Assumed product structure of a regular premium unit linked contract FMC 1.35% p.a. Allocation charge Year 1-2: 6% Year 3-5: 3% >Year 6: 0% Policy administration charge Rs. 400 p.a. Mortality charge Surrender and maturity benefit Death benefit 105% of best estimate mortality assumptions Fund value Sum assured + Fund value

6 Contract Specification Policy Data for a regular premium unit linked contract Annual Premium Rs. 50,000 Frequency Annual Sum Assured Rs. 500,000 Term Gender Age at entry 10 years Female 35 years

7 Assumptions used (best estimate) Mortality Surrenders Proportion of standard table 10% p.a. Acquisition Expenses Per premium: 10% Maintenance Expenses Proportion of direct expenses Fund earning rate/discount Rate Per policy: Rs Per premium: 0.5% p.a. Per policy: Rs. 300 p.a. 80% of total 8% p.a.

8 Elements of balance sheet and total comprehensive income Cash flows under the contract Charges Direct Expenses Indirect Expenses Claims

9 Elements of balance sheet Net contract asset or liability* Contractual service service margin margin: (CSM): Contractual service margin: Expected contract profit Expected contract profit Fulfilment cash cash flows flows (FCF) Future cash flows: Expected Future cash flows cash from flows: premiums Expected Future cash flows: Expected and cash flows cash from premiums flows claims from and and benefits claims premiums and benefits and claims and benefits Risk adjustment: An assessment Risk of the adjustment uncertainty about (RA): the An Risk amount adjustment: of future An cash assessment flows of the assessment of the uncertainty uncertainty about the amount of future about the amount Discounting: cash An adjustment flows of future cash that converts future flows cash flows into current amounts Discounting: An An adjustment adjustment that that converts converts future cash future flows cash into current flows amounts into current amounts FCF = NPV (Direct expenses +Claims Charges) + RA, where RA(t) = i a i * Driver i (t) CSM CSM(0) = Max[-{FCF(0)+RM(0)},0] CSM(t) = CSM(t-1) * Run-off factor, where Run-off factor represents transfer of services in the t th period

10 Total comprehensive income Description Calculated as Insurance contracts revenue (a) Expected (Direct Expenses + Claims) + Release of RA+ Release of CSM in respect of services provided in the period Incurred claims and expenses (b) (Claims+Expenses) Operating result (c) Investment income (d) Interest on insurance liability (e) Investment result (f) Profit or loss (g) Effect of discount rate changes on insurance liability (h) Total comprehensive income (i) = (a)-(b) Investment income on assets Unwind of discount on opening liability = (d) (e) = (c) + (f) (X) = (g) + (h)

11 Components of profit and loss account Paragraph 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) Description Losses, if any, at initial recognition of insurance contracts Change in the risk adjustment Change in the contractual service margin that reflects the transfer of services in the period Change in estimates of future cash flows that do not adjust the contractual service margin

12 Components of profit and loss account Paragraph 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) Description Differences between actual cash flows that occurred during the period and previous estimates of those cash flows (experience adjustments) Change in the carrying amount of onerous contracts Effect of changes in the credit standing of the issuer of reinsurance contracts held Interest expense on insurance contract liabilities determined using the discount rates that applied at the date that the contract was initially recognised. Gains or losses other than those recognised in other comprehensive income

13 Other comprehensive income Paragraph 64(a) 64(b) The difference between: Description the carrying amount of the insurance contract measured using the discount rates that applied at the reporting date, and the carrying amount of the insurance contract measured using the discount rates specified in paragraph 60(h)

14 Comparison of profit signatures Thousands IGAAP IFRS Phase 2

15 Comparison of projected liabilities Thousands Projected liabilities per policy in-force Policy Year Indian GAAP IFRS Phase 2

16 Comparison of projected liabilities Thousands Projected liabilities per policy sold Policy Year Indian GAAP IFRS Phase 2

17 Components of projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Thousands Policy Year FCF RA CSM Total

18 Scenario 1: Description Surrender experience in line with assumed up to policy year 4 Experience in policy year 5 higher than assumed rates by 20% (multiplicative), Increase in assumed decrement rates at the end of policy year 5 by 20% (multiplicative) Impact of change in assumptions fully absorbed by CSM

19 Scenario 1: Impact on CSM year 5 Impact on CSM in year 5 2, , , , , , CSM: Base Asumption change im pact absorbed by CSM CSM : Scenario 1 Decrease in liability Increase in liability

20 Scenario 1: Impact on components of liability year 5 Impact on liability in year 5 Liability: Base Change in FCF Change in RA Change in CSM Liability: Scenario 1 (4,100.00) (4,600.00) (5,100.00) (5,600.00) (6,100.00) (6,600.00) (7,100.00) Decrease in liability Increase in liability

21 Scenario 1: Projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Thousands Policy Year Base Scenario 1

22 Scenario 1: Impact on profits Thousands Impact on profits Policy Year Base Scenario 1

23 Scenario 1: Impact on profits: Year 5 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, , , Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 1 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

24 Scenario 1: Impact on profits: Year 6 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, , Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 1 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

25 Scenario 2: Description Surrender experience in line with assumptions up to policy year 4 Experience in policy year 5 higher than assumed rates by 70% (multiplicative), Increase in assumed decrement rates at the end of policy year 5 by 70% (multiplicative) Impact of change in assumptions not fully absorbed by CSM

26 Increase in liability Scenario 2: Impact on CSM year 5 Impact on CSM in year 5 2, , , , , , CSM: Base Asumption change im pact absorbed by CSM CSM : Scenario 2 Decrease in liability

27 Scenario 2: Impact on components of liability year 5 Impact on liability in year 5 Liability: Base Change in FCF Change in RA Change in CSM Liability: Scenario 2 (4,100.00) (4,600.00) (5,100.00) (5,600.00) (6,100.00) (6,600.00) (7,100.00) Decrease in liability Increase in liability

28 Scenario 2: Projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Thousands Policy Year Base Scenario 2

29 Scenario 2: Impact on profits Thousands Impact on profits ``` Policy Year Base Scenario 2

30 Scenario 2: Impact on profits: Year 5 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, , Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 2 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

31 Scenario 2: Impact on profits: Year 6 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 2 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

32 Scenario 3: Description Fund earning rates higher than expected by 20% (multiplicative) in policy year 5 No change in assumptions

33 Scenario 3: Impact on CSM year 5 Impact on CSM in year 5 2, , , , , , (200.00) CSM: Base Asumption change im pact absorbed by CSM CSM : Scenario 3 Decrease in liability Increase in liability

34 Scenario 3: Impact on components of liability year 5 (5,000.00) (5,200.00) (5,400.00) (5,600.00) (5,800.00) (6,000.00) (6,200.00) (6,400.00) (6,600.00) (6,800.00) (7,000.00) Impact on liability in year 5 Liability: Base Change in FCF Change in RA Change in CSM Liability: Scenario 3 Decrease in liability Increase in liability

35 Scenario 3: Projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Thousands Policy Year Base Scenario 3

36 Scenario 3: Impact on profits Thousands Impact on profits Policy Year Base Scenario 3

37 Scenario 3: Impact on profits: Year 5 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, , , , Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 3 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

38 Scenario 3: Impact on profits: Year 6 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, , Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 3 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

39 Scenario 4: Description Increase in assumption in respect of fund earning rates and discount rates by 20% (multiplicative) at the end of policy year 5

40 Increase in liability Scenario 4: Impact on CSM year 5 Impact on CSM in year 5 2, , , , , , CSM: Base Asumption change impact absorbed by CSM CSM : Scenario 4 Decrease in liability

41 Scenario 4: Impact on components of liability year 5 (5,900.00) (6,000.00) (6,100.00) (6,200.00) (6,300.00) (6,400.00) (6,500.00) (6,600.00) (6,700.00) (6,800.00) (6,900.00) Impact on liability in year 5 Liability: Base Change in FCF Change in RA Change in CSM Liability: Scenario 4 Decrease in liability Increase in liability

42 Scenario 4: Projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Thousands Policy Year Base Scenario 4

43 Scenario 4: Impact on profits Thousands Impact on profits Policy Year Base Scenario 4

44 Scenario 4: Impact on profits: Year 5 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, , , Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 4 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

45 Scenario 4: Impact on profits: Year 6 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 4 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

46 Agenda part 2: Immediate annuity Contract specification Assumptions used Elements of IFRS Total Comprehensive Income (TCI) Projected balance sheets and profit signatures IFRS vs IGAAP Effect of variances and assumption changes on IFRS profit signature

47 Contract Specification Assumed product structure Period of annuity payment Guarantee period Lives covered Death Benefit For lifetime of annuitant Nil Single life Nil

48 Contract Specification Policy Data for an immediate annuity contract Single premium Rs. 70,000 Annuity payable Annuity frequency Gender Age at entry Rs. 4,500 p.a. Annual Male 31 years

49 Assumptions used (best estimate) Mortality Surrenders (by policy year) Proportion of standard table NA Acquisition expenses Per premium: 5% Per policy: Rs. 300 Maintenance expenses Per policy: Rs. 50 p.a. Proportion of direct expenses Investment return, discount rate 80% of total 8% p.a.

50 Assumptions used (IGAAP reserving) Mortality Maintenance Expenses Investment return, discount rate 90% of best estimate Per policy: Rs. 60 p.a. 6% p.a.

51 Comparison of profit signatures 5 Thousands IGAAP IFRS Phase 2

52 Comparison of projected liabilities Thousands Projected liabilities per policy issued Policy Year Indian GAAP IFRS Phase

53 Components of projected liabilities Thousands Policy Year FCF RA CSM Total

54 Scenario 1: Description Mortality experience in line with assumptions up to policy year 4 Experience in policy year 5 lower than assumed rates by 20% (multiplicative), Decrease in assumed decrement rates at the end of policy year 5 by 20% (multiplicative) Impact of change in assumptions fully absorbed by CSM

55 Scenario 1: Impact on CSM year 5 Impact on CSM in year 5 3, , , , , , CSM: Base Asumption change im pact absorbed by CSM CSM : Scenario 1 Decrease in liability Increase in liability

56 Scenario 1: Impact on components of liability year 5 Impact on liability in year 5 Liability: Base Change in FCF Change in RA Change in CSM Liability: Scenario 1 64, , , , , , , , , , Decrease in liability Increase in liability

57 Scenario 1: Projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Thousands Policy Year Base Scenario 1

58 Scenario 1: Impact on profits 600 Impact on profits Policy Year Base Scenario 1

59 Scenario 1: Impact on profits: Year Impact on components of total comprehensive income Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 1 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

60 Scenario 1: Impact on profits: Year Impact on components of total comprehensive income Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 1 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

61 Scenario 2: Description Investment returns lower than expected by 20% (multiplicative) in policy year 5 No change in assumptions

62 Scenario 2: Impact on CSM year 5 Impact on CSM in year 5 3, , , , , , CSM: Base Asumption change im pact absorbed by CSM CSM : Scenario 2 Decrease in liability Increase in liability

63 Scenario 2: Impact on components of liability year 5 Impact on liability in year 5 Liability: Base Change in FCF Change in RA Change in CSM Liability: Scenario 2 70, , , , , , , Decrease in liability Increase in liability

64 Scenario 2: Projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Policy Year Base Scenario 2

65 Scenario 2: Impact on profits 600 Impact on profits Policy Year Base Scenario 2

66 Scenario 2: Impact on profits: Year Impact on components of total comprehensive income (200.00) (400.00) Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 2 (600.00) Decrease in profits Increase in profits

67 Scenario 3: Description Decrease in assumption in respect of investment returns and discount rates by 20% (multiplicative) at the end of policy year 5

68 Scenario 3: Impact on CSM year 5 Impact on CSM in year 5 3, , , , , , CSM: Base Asumption change im pact absorbed by CSM CSM : Scenario 3 Decrease in liability Increase in liability

69 Scenario 3: Impact on components of liability year 5 Impact on liability in year 5 Liability: Base Change in FCF Change in RA Change in CSM Liability: Scenario 3 80, , , , , , , , Decrease in liability Increase in liability

70 Scenario 3: Projected liabilities Projected liabilities per policy issued Policy Year Base Scenario 3

71 Scenario 3: Impact on profits Impact on profits Policy Year Base Scenario 3

72 Scenario 3: Impact on profits: Year 5 2, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 0.00 (2,000.00) (4,000.00) Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 3 (6,000.00) (8,000.00) (10,000.00) (12,000.00) (14,000.00) Decrease in profits Increase in profits

73 Scenario 3: Impact on profits: Year 6 1, Impact on components of total comprehensive income 1, , , , Profit: Base 60(a) 60(b) 60(c) 60(d) 60(e) 60(f) 60(g) 60(h) 60(i) OCI Profit: Scenario 3 Decrease in profits Increase in profits

74 Thank you

Further information Paragraphs of IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts Paragraphs BC296-BC315 of the Basis for Conclusions on IFRS 17 Insurance

Further information Paragraphs of IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts Paragraphs BC296-BC315 of the Basis for Conclusions on IFRS 17 Insurance 1 2 Paragraphs 60-70 of IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts Paragraphs BC296-BC315 of the Basis for Conclusions on IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts Webcast Reinsurance contracts held available at: go.ifrs.org/ifrs-17-implementation