Maryland s leader in public opinion polling Maryland Poll

Transcription

1 Maryland s leader in public opinion polling Maryland Poll President Obama Job Approval Governor O Malley Job Approval Death Penalty Gun Control Transportation January 2013 Contact: Patrick E. Gonzales

2 Methodology Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling. Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since the mid 1980 s. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state. Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy. Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry. This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 15 th through January 20 th, A total of 801 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns. The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the true figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race. Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 2

3 Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics GENDER Number Percent Male % Female % Number Percent Democrat % Republican % Independent % RACE Number Percent White % African-American % Other/Refused % REGION Number Percent Eastern Sh/So MD % Baltimore City % Baltimore Suburbs % Washington Suburbs % Western MD % Regional Groupings are as follows: Eastern Shore/ Southern Md Baltimore City Baltimore Suburbs Washington Suburbs Western Maryland Calvert Co. Baltimore City Anne Arundel Co. Montgomery Co. Allegany Co. Caroline Co. Baltimore Co. Prince George s Co. Carroll Co. Cecil Co. Harford Co. Frederick Co. Charles Co. Howard Co. Garrett Co. Dorchester Co. Washington Co. Kent Co. Queen Anne s Co. Somerset Co. St. Mary s Co. Talbot Co. Wicomico Co. Worcester Co. Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 3

4 Summary President Barack Obama Job Approval Statewide, 64% of Maryland voters of the job Barack Obama is doing as president (45% strongly and 19% somewhat ), while 35% dis (26% strongly dis and 9% somewhat dis). Obama Job Approval Approve Dis No opinion January % 35% 1% January % 41% 4% September % 47% 4% January % 40% 6% October % 43% 5% July % 38% 11% January % 30% 14% September % 31% 11% January % 11% 9% Figure 2 Obama Job Approval by Party % 83% 57% 42% 16% 7% Democrats Republicans Independents Approve Dis Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 4

5 Governor Martin O Malley Job Approval Among Maryland voters, 54% of the job Martin O Malley is doing as governor (25% strongly and 29% somewhat ), while 41% dis (24% strongly dis and 17% somewhat dis), with 5% having no opinion. O Malley Job Approval Approve Dis No opinion January % 41% 5% January % 40% 7% September % 40% 8% January % 30% 13% October % 44% 8% July % 39% 13% January % 36% 18% September % 37% 15% January % 37% 14% September % 35% 20% March % 48% 15% January % 49% 12% October % 31% 23% March % 21% 27% By party, 73% of Democrats of the job O Malley is doing and 20% dis; 52% of unaffiliated voters and 46% dis. Among Republicans, 17% and 80% dis. Governor O Malley s job rating by gender and race: Approve Dis Men 46% 51% Women 61% 33% White 46% 50% African-American 76% 18% Twenty-five percent of Marylanders think O Malley should run for president in 2016, 58% say he should not, and 17% aren t sure. Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 5

6 Death Penalty Opposition to the death penalty in Maryland has increased over the past two years. Statewide, 49% of voters the death penalty (29% strongly and 21% somewhat ), while 44% the death penalty (31% strongly and 13% somewhat ), with 7% offering no response. Death Penalty Favor Oppose No opinion January % 44% 7% January % 36% 8% Opposition to the death penalty has increased 8 points in the past two years The death penalty by party and race: Favor Oppose Democrats 33% 60% Republicans 77% 17% Independents 51% 38% White 53% 40% African American 34% 59% Among black voters 44% strongly and 15% somewhat the death penalty The key finding in this examination of the death penalty, however, is that when we asked Marylanders if they believe that the sentence of life without the possibility of parole is, or is not, an acceptable substitute for the death penalty, we discovered a near 2-to-1 result: 61% say that life in prison without the possibility of parole is an acceptable alternative to the death penalty 33% say that life without parole is not an acceptable alternative to the death penalty Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 6

7 Gun Control Statewide, 58% of Maryland voters would a law banning the sale of assault weapons in the state (46% strongly and 12% somewhat ), while 40% a ban (28% strongly and 12% somewhat ). The results by party and gender: Favor Oppose Democrats 70% 28% Republicans 38% 61% Independents 54% 45% Male 51% 48% Female 65% 34% An overwhelming 88% of Maryland voters would a law requiring background checks on people buying guns at gun shows (73% strongly and 15% somewhat ), while only 11% would a law requiring background checks (7% strongly and 4% somewhat ). We asked Maryland voters what they thought would do more to reduce violence in schools: have stricter gun control laws or have armed guards in schools. 44% say stricter gun control laws would do more to reduce violence in schools 36% say having armed guards would do more to reduce violence in schools The results by party and gender: Stricter Laws Armed Guards Democrats 52% 27% Republicans 29% 52% Independents 47% 40% Male 38% 43% Female 51% 30% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 7

8 Transportation Marylanders are strongly united in their belief in the Free State s transportation infrastructure needs. Statewide, 94% think it is important to maintain and improve and maintain Maryland s transportation system, such as roads, bridges and public transportation (56% very important and 38% somewhat important), while only 6% it is not important to maintain and improve and maintain Maryland s transportation system. The rub appears, however, with at least one funding mechanism to meet these needs. Statewide, only 26% would a ten cents per gallon increase in Maryland s gas tax rate (8% strongly and 18% somewhat ), while 73% a ten cents per gallon increase in Maryland s gas tax rate to be used for transportation projects (59% strongly and 14% somewhat ). The gas tax by party and gender: Favor Oppose Democrats 36% 64% Republicans 11% 89% Independents 25% 75% Male 24% 75% Female 29% 71% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 8

9 QUESTION: Do you or dis of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? GENDER JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA Number Percent Approve % Dis % No answer % JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA Number Percent % % dis % dis % No answer % JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA dis dis No answer Male % 19.0% 11.5% 35.4% 1.3% Female % 19.4% 7.4% 16.3% 0.7% 56% of females strongly of JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA the job Barack Obama is doing as president dis dis No answer Democrat % 20.3% 2.5% 4.9% 1.1% Republican % 13.0% 19.2% 63.6% 0.8% Independent % 28.1% 15.8% 26.3% 0.9% RACE JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA dis dis No answer White % 21.0% 12.1% 33.3% 1.2% African-American % 15.0% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 9

10 QUESTION: Do you or dis of the job Martin O Malley is doing as governor? GENDER JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY Number Percent Approve % Dis % No answer % JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY Number Percent % % dis % dis % No answer % JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY dis dis No answer Male % 26.6% 18.5% 32.8% 2.9% Female % 30.9% 16.1% 16.8% 6.5% JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY dis dis No answer Democrat % 38.4% 13.2% 6.9% 6.5% Republican % 11.7% 22.2% 57.7% 2.9% Independent % 27.2% 22.8% 23.7% 1.8% RACE JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY dis dis No answer White % 28.8% 18.1% 31.6% 4.5% African-American % 29.5% 14.5% 3.6% 5.7% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 10

11 QUESTION: Do you think Governor Martin O Malley should run for president in 2016, or not? SHOULD MARTIN O'MALLEY RUN FOR PRESIDENT Number Percent Yes % No % Not sure % GENDER SHOULD MARTIN O'MALLEY RUN FOR PRESIDENT Yes No Not sure Male % 62.8% 16.1% Female % 53.5% 18.0% SHOULD MARTIN O'MALLEY RUN FOR PRESIDENT Yes No Not sure Democrat % 44.0% 23.9% Republican % 83.7% 5.9% Independent % 58.8% 14.0% RACE SHOULD MARTIN O'MALLEY RUN FOR PRESIDENT Yes No Not sure White % 65.0% 13.8% African-American % 36.8% 25.4% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 11

12 QUESTION: Do you or the death penalty in Maryland? DEATH PENALTY Number Percent Favor % Oppose % No answer % DEATH PENALTY Number Percent % % % % No answer % DEATH PENALTY No answer GENDER Male % 19.3% 11.5% 23.4% 7.3% Female % 22.1% 13.4% 38.6% 7.4% DEATH PENALTY No answer Democrat % 19.2% 13.6% 46.0% 7.4% Republican % 20.5% 8.8% 8.4% 5.4% Independent % 27.2% 15.8% 21.9% 11.4% DEATH PENALTY No answer RACE White % 19.8% 12.2% 27.4% 7.1% African-American % 23.3% 15.0% 43.5% 7.8% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 12

13 QUESTION: As a penalty for murder, do you believe that the sentence of life in prison without any possibility of parole is, or is not, an acceptable substitute for the death penalty? IS LIFE WITHOUT PAROLE ACCEPTABLE ALTERNATIVE FOR DEATH PENALTY Number Percent Yes % No % No answer % GENDER IS LIFE WITHOUT PAROLE ACCEPTABLE ALTERNATIVE Yes No No answer Male % 41.7% 6.5% Female % 24.9% 6.2% 69% of women in Maryland believe that the sentence of life in prison without any possibility of parole is an acceptable substitute for the death penalty IS LIFE WITHOUT PAROLE ACCEPTABLE ALTERNATIVE Yes No No answer Democrat % 25.2% 6.7% Republican % 48.1% 6.7% Independent % 31.6% 4.4% RACE IS LIFE WITHOUT PAROLE ACCEPTABLE ALTERNATIVE Yes No No answer White % 35.5% 5.7% African-American % 23.3% 7.8% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 13

14 QUESTION: Do you or a law banning the sale of assault weapons in Maryland? GENDER BANNING THE SALE OF ASSAULT WEAPONS Number Percent Favor % Oppose % No answer % BANNING THE SALE OF ASSAULT WEAPONS Number Percent % % % % No answer % BANNING THE SALE OF ASSAULT WEAPONS No answer Male % 13.5% 12.2% 36.2% 1.0% Female % 11.0% 12.5% 21.1% 1.4% BANNING THE SALE OF ASSAULT WEAPONS No answer Democrat % 7.6% 10.9% 17.6% 1.6% Republican % 21.3% 13.4% 47.7% 0.8% Independent % 11.4% 15.8% 29.8% 0.9% 61% of black voters strongly a ban on assault weapons BANNING THE SALE OF ASSAULT WEAPONS No answer RACE White % 13.4% 12.8% 31.7% 1.2% African-American % 9.3% 10.4% 18.1% 1.6% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 14

15 QUESTION: Do you or a law requiring background checks on people buying guns at gun shows? REQUIRING BACKGROUND CHECKS Number Percent Favor % Oppose % No answer % REQUIRING BACKGROUND CHECKS Number Percent % % % % No answer % REQUIRING BACKGROUND CHECKS No answer Democrat % 11.8% 2.7% 5.8% 1.6% Republican % 20.9% 4.6% 11.3% 0.8% Independent % 14.0% 5.3% 4.4% 0.0% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 15

16 QUESTION: Which of these do you think would do more to reduce violence in schools: have stricter gun control laws or having armed guards in schools?(order ROTATED) MORE LIKELY TO REDUCE VIOLENCE Number Percent Stricter gun laws % Armed guards % Both (VOL) % Neither (VOL) % No answer % Stricter gun laws MORE LIKELY TO REDUCE VIOLENCE Armed Neither guards Both (VOL) (VOL) No answer GENDER Male % 43.2% 3.1% 8.1% 8.1% Female % 29.5% 3.4% 6.7% 9.8% Stricter gun laws MORE LIKELY TO REDUCE VIOLENCE Armed Neither guards Both (VOL) (VOL) No answer Democrat % 26.6% 4.9% 7.1% 9.4% Republican % 51.9% 1.3% 7.9% 10.0% Independent % 40.4% 0.9% 7.0% 5.3% Stricter gun laws MORE LIKELY TO REDUCE VIOLENCE Armed Neither guards Both (VOL) (VOL) No answer RACE White % 39.3% 2.4% 7.6% 8.1% African-American % 25.9% 6.2% 5.7% 10.9% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 16

17 QUESTION: How important is it to maintain and improve and maintain Maryland s transportation system, such as roads, bridges and public transportation? MARYLAND'S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Number Percent Very important % important % Not too important % Not at all important % No answer % GENDER MARYLAND'S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Very important important Not too important Not at all important No answer Male % 43.0% 4.2% 0.5% 0.3% Female % 34.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% MARYLAND'S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Very important important Not too important Not at all important No answer Democrat % 29.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% Republican % 52.3% 5.9% 1.3% 0.0% Independent % 43.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.9% RACE MARYLAND'S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Very important important Not too important Not at all important No answer White % 43.8% 4.8% 0.5% 0.2% African-American % 21.8% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 17

18 QUESTION: Would you or a 10 cents per gallon increase in Maryland s gas tax rate to be used for transportation projects?(rotated WITH PREVIOUS QUESTION) GAS TAX INCREASE Number Percent Favor % Oppose % No answer % GAS TAX INCREASE Number Percent % % % % No answer % GAS TAX INCREASE No answer GENDER Male % 15.9% 11.7% 63.3% 0.8% Female % 20.6% 15.1% 55.4% 0.5% GAS TAX INCREASE No answer Democrat % 26.1% 15.4% 48.2% 0.7% Republican % 7.1% 10.9% 77.8% 0.4% Independent % 11.4% 11.4% 63.2% 0.9% Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 18