VIRGINIA IN THE FUTURE TRENDS ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 VIRGINIA IN THE FUTURE TRENDS ANALYSIS MULTIMODAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING - AUGUST 4,

2 INTRODUCTION TRENDS ANALYSIS: Part of the first phase of developing VTrans2040 Understanding the future trends that may shape current policies TRENDS (what the world may look like in 2040) OUTCOMES (what transportation may look like in 2040) 2

3 INTRODUCTION KEY QUESTIONS What is Virginia s Future Economy? What are its Transportation Needs? 3

4 INTRODUCTION PRESENTATION OVERVIEW 1 REVIEW TRENDS: DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL ECONOMIC TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL 2 COMBINE DATA: B A SYNTHESIS 3 GET INPUT:? WHAT DO YOU SAY? 4

5 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL 5

6 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL Virginia s Population will Grow Virginia s Projected Population Growth by 2040 Projected Population Growth (2040) in US vs. VA 6

7 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL Forecasts are Humbling Projected Population vs. Actual Population over 20 Years WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Our forecasts are uncertain even more so in the smallest areas of study Forecasts Can Disagree 7

8 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL Continued Population Concentrations Projected Population Growth WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? To understand where transportation needs will be concentrated Ten Jurisdictions Displaying Greatest Total Population Increases 8

9 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL Virginia is Aging Older Virginians are an expanding proportion of the population in 2040 WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Some elderly will need more travel options as they age Ten Jurisdictions Displaying Highest Increase in 65+ Population by

10 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL 2040 Ratio of Seniors to Youth Top Quartile of Jurisdictions with Highest Seniors to Youth Ratios (averaging 1.3) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? This trend has implications for paratransit, school transportation, and land development Statewide Ratio in 2012 = 0.5 Statewide Ratio in 2040 = th percentile in 2040 =

11 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL Millenial Population WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Millenials are often the workforce for the fastest growing economic sectors Ten Jurisdictions with the Highest Increase in Millenial Population 11

12 DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL Migration & Immigration For Every Ten Virginians in 2012: WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Economic growth depends on attractiveness to migrants / immigrants 12

13 ECONOMIC 13

14 ECONOMIC Growth in Key Sectors Top 5 Industry Sectors by Payroll Statewide (2040) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These economic sectors will be key contributors to Virginia s economy 14 *Retail replaces state/local govt. when ranking in terms of employment. All others maintain same rank.

15 ECONOMIC Economic Activity in Key Regions 2012 % of Total State GDP 37% of Total State GDP 2012 % of Total State Employment WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These areas are key contributors to Virginia s economy today 15 47% of Total State Employment

16 Economic Concentrations by Region Professional Services Employment (2040) Note the Urban Concentration Finance and Insurance Payroll (2040) Note the Urban Concentration Retail Trade Employment (2040 Note the Rural Concentration Health Care and Social Assistance Payroll (2040) Note the Rural Concentration WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Different Industry sectors will have different workforce and transportation needs Higher Employment Higher Total Payroll 16

17 Measuring Relative Change in Industrial Specialization through Location Quotient (LQ) Analysis While the greatest magnitude of job gains occur in the largest counties, LQ Analysis can show which counties have seen the greatest relative change in industrial specialization Largest Gains in Professional Services (NAICS 54) Lynchburg Architectural and Engineering Services LQ Albemarle County Scientific Research and Development LQ Bedford County Advertising LQ WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Concentrations of key industries indicate local/ regional workforce and transportation needs 17

18 Freight Concentrations by Region Legend county selection Comb2040Value to 2,000 2,000 to 5,000 ECONOMIC 5,000 to 10,000 10,000 to 22,000 22,000 to 112,000 WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Note growth in I-81 and 58 corridors important to understand future corridor needs 2040 Truck Value Growth Virginia Counties ($M) 18

19 ECONOMIC Future Freight Shifts A Growing Port and Regional Shifts will change Future Freight % Total Trade between VA and Top Trading Partners accounted for by Inbound Coal Port of Virginia Containers WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These factors will influence both regional and modal freight shifts in Virginia 19

20 ECONOMIC Modal Shifts in Freight WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Virginia is expected to have significant rail freight increases US & VA Tonnage Growth by Mode 2012 to 2040 SOURCE: FAF3

21 ECONOMIC Tourism In 2012, Virginia Tourism: Generated $21.2 billion in visitor spending Supported 210,000 jobs Contributed to $4.7 billion in payroll 3% of Virginia s total payroll Tourism accounts for : 49% OF BATH COUNTY PAYROLL 40% OF WILLIAMSBURG PAYROLL Source: U.S. Travel Association for the Virginia Tourism Corporation (2012) 38% OF NELSON COUNTY PAYROLL WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Transportation plays a critical role in tourism, especially in rural and historic areas that depend on tourism for economic growth 21

22 ECONOMIC Employment Land area (thousands of acres) Agriculture Virginia Farm Employment and Land Area Cash Receipts by Commodity in Virginia, ,000 12,000 65,000 63,000 Land Area 10,000 61,000 59,000 57,000 Employment 8,000 6,000 55,000 4,000 53,000 2,000 51,000 49,000 0 Sales Value & Comparative Advantage Within the US, 2012 Declining Tobacco Industry, VALUE OF SALES BY COMMODITY GROUP ($1,000) ($1,000s) U.S. Rank 1 Poultry and eggs 1,161, Cattle and calves 707, Grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas 633, Milk from cows 347, Nursery, greenhouse, floriculture and sod 251, Other crops and hay 139, Tobacco 100, ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Farms Acres 22 8 Vegetables, melons, potatoes and sweet potatoes 92, Cotton and cottonseed 67, Hogs and pigs 67,702 21

23 ECONOMIC Rural Employment Change WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? While holding steady overall, rural employment will grow in healthcare & social services 23

24 TECHNOLOGICAL 24

25 TECHNOLOGICAL Technological Trends Shared-Use Mobility Congested commutes Limited/expensive parking Declining car ownership App Driven Types Ridesharing Car-Sharing Bike-Sharing Ride-Matching WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Technology has made it easier than ever for travelers to access and acquire transportation services 25

26 TECHNOLOGICAL Technological Trends Bike-sharing in U.S. (as of July 2013) 56 CITIES with IT-based systems 20,100 BIKES 2 UNIVERSITIES WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Biking can replace trips of all modes, but it can also make non-auto trips more feasible for the last mile 2,000 STATIONS 26 Source: Transportation Sustainability Research Center, UC Berkeley, Introduction to Shared-Use Mobility: Definitions, trends, and understanding presentation (Shaheen, June 2014)

27 Members TECHNOLOGICAL Technological Trends Carsharing in U.S. (as of July 2013) 24 OPERATORS 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Carsharing Membership in U.S. ( ) Zip-Car in VA 27 Source: Transportation Sustainability Research Center, UC Berkeley, Introduction to Shared-Use Mobility: Definitions, trends, and understanding presentation (Shaheen, June 2014)

28 TECHNOLOGICAL Technological Trends Smart Infrastructure Test bed on I-66, I-495 (Fairfax) Virginia Smart Road by VTTI and VDOT Wireless vehicle communication Dynamic paint, anti-icing Wireless electric-charging Innovations in roadway material WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Innovations may lead to fuel economy, safety, congestion reduction 28 Photo: Solar Roadways

29 ENVIRONMENTAL 29

30 ENVIRONMENTAL Climate Change Coastal Virginia 2 nd most vulnerable region in U.S. Degradation of ecosystems Low-elevation Rates of sea-level rise greater than average WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? VA Roads, bridges and other structures are vulnerable to shoreline erosion, increasing storm intensity, increasing global temperatures and rising ocean levels. Source: USGS, Coastal Vulnerability Index Map 30

31 Source: The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure, U.S. DOT, ENVIRONMENTAL Climate Change 31

32 Photo: Joe Mahoney, University of Washington ENVIRONMENTAL Climate Change Transportation Infrastructure Increase in very hot days/heat waves impacts Thermal expansion bridges and pavements Rail track deformations Lift-off limits at hot weather airports Limitations on hours of construction 32 Source: 2008 Virginia Governor s Commission on Climate Change, The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure presentation (Transportation Research Board)

33 SYNTHESIS 33

34 SYNTHESIS How can we predict travel? National Vehicle Miles Traveled (in Millions): Actual versus Projections WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Observations about past behavior are not necessarily the best assumptions with which to forecast the future 34

35 SYNTHESIS Travel Behavior is Changing WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? After a turning point, such as decline in VMT, forecasting becomes more challenging Aside from Recent Uptick, Virginia VMT Mirrors National Trends Virginia Population Increasing while Vehicle Miles Traveled has Declined 35

36 SYNTHESIS Travel Behavior is Changing Trips by Mode in Virginia (2012) 500, , % 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Percent Change in Mode in Virginia ( ) 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Carpooled Worked from Home Public Transportation Walk Bicycle, Motorcycle, Taxi 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Future transportation plans must recognize changing preferences of commuters and travelers 36

37 SYNTHESIS Payroll & Location Counties that are Expected to Rank in the Top Five in One or More of the Top Industries by Payroll (2040) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Supporting the transportation needs of significant payrollgenerating counties is important to economic growth LOCATION TOP INDUSTRIES BY PAYROLL 37

38 SYNTHESIS Payroll & Density Population Density: Counties with Top Industries by Payroll (2040) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Key economic sectors locate in higher-density jurisdictions POPULATION DENSITY COUNTIES WITH TOP INDUSTRIES BY PAYROLL = approximately 1,000 people/square mile 38

39 SYNTHESIS Millenials & High Wage Areas WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Millenials may drive the higher wage-based knowledge and information economy in the future Counties with Top Industries by Payroll in 2040 WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Millenials may drive the higher wage-based knowledge and information economy in the future Highest Population of Millenials in 2040 MILLENIALS COUNTIES WITH TOP INDUSTRIES BY PAYROLL 39

40 SYNTHESIS Location & Travel Travel Times & Per Capita Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled for Counties with Top Industries by Payroll. VDOT (2012), ACS (2012) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? For Millenials: there was a 15% decline when comparing use of their car as today s primary form of transportation (86%) versus in the future (71%). Source: APA Poll, LOCATION TRAVEL TIME/ VMT *On average (weighted by workers), travel times are 4% longer in the counties with top industries by payroll (roughly 80 seconds longer) than the statewide average. However, they are 15 minutes less than statewide average when Prince William County is excluded. *On average (weighted by population), DVMT in the counties with top industries by payroll is 8% less (2.2 miles less) than DVMT statewide 40

41 SYNTHESIS Mode & Counties with Top Industries by Payroll WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? We need to understand the travel preferences of the high-payrollindustry workers to support future economic needs % Workers Taking Transit / % Workers Working from Home (2012) MODE COUNTIES WITH TOP INDUSTRIES BY PAYROLL Key Mode Share Stats for Counties with Top Industries by Payroll 82.9% of Henrico County workers get to work in SOVs 15.0% of Prince William County workers carpool 25.2% of Arlington workers get to work using public transp. 4.4% of Richmond workers walk to work 4.0% of Richmond workers motorbike/bike to work 8.3% of Loudon County workers telecommute 41

42 SYNTHESIS Commuting and Density WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Differences in mode choice occur in higher-density areas this provides insight into the needs of the future workforce MODE COUNTIES WITH TOP INDUSTRIES BY PAYROLL According to the US Census, the denser the population, the more likely commuters are to: Walk and bike (slightly more likely) Take bus/rail (significantly more likely) The less dense the population, the more likely commuters are to: Drive alone (slightly more likely) Drive with others (slightly more likely) Work at home (slightly more likely) 42

43 SYNTHESIS Transportation & Health Active Commuting and Obesity Rates by Country (Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation) Public Transit and Physical Activity (Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Walking, biking and transit commuting are linked to health benefits HEALTH MODE CHOICE 43

44 SYNTHESIS Livable Communities 56% OF MILLENIALS 46% ACTIVE BOOMERS WOULD PREFER TO LIVE SOMEDAY IN A WALKABLE COMMUNITY, WHETHER AN URBAN, SUBURBAN, OR SMALL TOWN LOCATION. Only 8% of Millenials and 7% of Active Boomers prefer living if they can afford it in a suburb that requires driving to most places. SOCIAL Source: Investing in Place. American Planning Association (APA), LIFESTYLE 44

45 DISCUSSION 45

46 DISCUSSION How Trends fit in the Process 46

47 DISCUSSION What do you say? Are there other trends that may shape transportation outcomes in the future? What trends do you think will have the biggest impacts on transportation in Virginia s future, and how? 47

48 DISCUSSION Your Input WHAT DO YOU SAY? DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL What s Missing? What s Significant? ECONOMIC What s Missing? What s Significant? What s Missing? What s Significant? TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL What s Missing? What s Significant? B A SYNTHESIS What s Missing? What s Significant?

49 WORKSHOP 49

50 Discussion Questions 1. What does this goal mean to you/your agency? 2. What are the most important ways to accomplish this goal from your agency perspective and in light of the future trends we just discussed? 50

51 Safety & Security 51

52 System Maintenance & Preservation 52

53 Mobility, Connectivity and Accessibility 53

54 Environmental Stewardship 54

55 Economic Vitality 55

56 Coordination of Transportation & Land Use 56

57 Program Delivery 57