2015 Public Finance Debate Series TODAY S POLICY SETTINGS UNFAIRLY FAVOUR THE BABY BOOMER GENERATION 20 APRIL 2015

Transcription

1 2015 Public Finance Debate Series TODAY S POLICY SETTINGS UNFAIRLY FAVOUR THE BABY BOOMER GENERATION 20 APRIL 2015

2 Ms Becky Prebble FOR THE MOTION

3 Age structure of NZ population Source: Statistics NZ

4 Age structure of NZ population Source: Statistics NZ

5 House prices over 40 years Source: Productivity Commission

6 House prices over 40 years Source: Productivity Commission

7 Ratio of tax to GDP over 40 years Source: The Treasury

8 Ratio of tax to GDP over 40 years Source: The Treasury

9 Mar-65 Jul-66 Nov-67 Mar-69 Jul-70 Nov-71 Mar-73 Jul-74 Nov-75 Mar-77 Jul-78 Nov-79 Mar-81 Jul-82 Nov-83 Mar-85 Jul-86 Nov-87 Mar-89 Jul-90 Nov-91 Mar-93 Jul-94 Nov-95 Mar-97 Jul-98 Nov-99 Mar-01 Jul-02 Nov-03 Mar-05 Jul-06 Nov-07 Mar-09 Jul-10 Nov-11 Mar-13 Jul-14 Unemployment rate - % of labour force

10 Mar-65 Jul-66 Nov-67 Mar-69 Jul-70 Nov-71 Mar-73 Jul-74 Nov-75 Mar-77 Jul-78 Nov-79 Mar-81 Jul-82 Nov-83 Mar-85 Jul-86 Nov-87 Mar-89 Jul-90 Nov-91 Mar-93 Jul-94 Nov-95 Mar-97 Jul-98 Nov-99 Mar-01 Jul-02 Nov-03 Mar-05 Jul-06 Nov-07 Mar-09 Jul-10 Nov-11 Mar-13 Jul Unemployment rate - % of labour force

11 Sample tertiary qualifications Bachelor of Sport and Recreation Bachelor of International Hospitality Management Bachelor of Culinary Arts Certificate in Commercial Floristry Certificate in Construction Skills National Certificate in Health, Disability, and Aged Support

12 Dr Simon Chapple AGAINST THE MOTION

13 Baby boomer fiscal smash n grab on Millennials Baby boomers will benefit from generous pensions and rising old-age health spending They will not pay sufficient life-time taxes to fully fund them The Millennial generation is smaller in size They will not generate sufficient pay-as-you-go funding for these boomer commitments Taxing Millennials to cover the funding gap is unfair It raids their well-being to maintain that of Baby boomers

14 It s déjà vu all over again! Ongoing memes of inter-generational fiscal conflict David Thomson, Selfish Generations, 1991: Baby boomers, you re being ripped off by the generation David Willets, The Pinch, 2010: Millennials, you re being ripped off by Baby boomers

15 Baby Boomers versus Millennials: New Zealand s total fertility rate,

16 Baby boomers and Millennials are fictions Egregious or necessary fiction? Generations are much more continuous than discrete binaries Policy shifts to be fair to binary generations necessarily create unfairness within these binaries Variation in exposures and experiences within generations spanning 20+ years may be greater than between generations

17 And it is not all about generational conflict. Generations are not simply linked by fiscal rules and inter-generational fiscal conflict Unpaid work by parents, in-family transfers, gifts and bequests between generations all matter The pass-on of broader social and physical environments are also generational links

18 But let s have fun and run with the generational fiction.

19 Ultimately, policy goals are about well-being Two questions: Is average well-being of Millennials systematically higher (or lower) than that of Baby boomers? If yes (or no) are the between-generation patterns of well-being unfair? Fiscal redistribution is but one contributor to inter-generational differences in wellbeing and thus only one factor in assessing policy fairness

20 How do well-being advantages and disadvantages stack up across the two generational fictions?

21 Baby boomers. The Good The ability to play, free of high levels of parental control Universal but modest and declining child cash benefits Low cost higher education Easy to find, relatively well-paid jobs on labour market entry Easy to buy a first house and make capital gains Brilliant new music

22 Baby boomers.the Bad Loads of siblings, low parental time investment Crowded schools, large class sizes Rubbish cooking Left home & school early Less chance of getting a higher education Inherit less from their parents, as sharing between lots of siblings Economic shocks, mid-1970s to early 1990s Worried sick about nuclear annihilation

23 Baby boomers. the downright ugly Faced higher levels of violence in homes & schools, fewer rights as children It was more legitimate to discriminate on the basis of gender, ethnicity and sexual orientation Lived in a society which stigmatised and hid mental illness Were governed by a repressive patriarchal gerontocracy Widespread, unpunished fashion crimes: Flared trousers & mullets

24 Millennials.the Good Taller: Better health during childhood Live longer Higher parental time investments Living longer with parents Smaller class sizes Better chance of higher education Higher living standards Will inherit more than their parents, as fewer siblings Easier for their parents to provide for grandchildren s childcare Face less racism, sexism, everyday violence, bullying Better acceptance of mental illness Awesome new electronic gizmos & whatsits Are taken more seriously by their elders

25 Millennials.the Bad As children, less freedom from adults Fatter Pay more for higher education A tougher labour market entry Harder to buy a first house Face retiring at an older age May pay higher average tax rates Fewer siblings to help with care of ageing parents Are worried sick about global warming

26 Millennials.the Downright Ugly Terrible music Rubbish reality TV Internet trolling Unpunished fashion crimes include ear lobe stretching & bearded hipsters in ironical hats

27 A thought experiment on inter-generational policy fairness Given a choice, would your well-being be better by: Being reincarnated as a Baby boomer? Or as a Millennial?

28 A thought experiment, contd Would unfair to Millennials fiscal policy settings influence your choice towards becoming a Baby Boomer? How important would any socio-demographic characteristics be in your choice (e.g. your gender, ethnicity, intelligence, sexuality, family background or physical or mental health status), compared with a purely random chance of being reincarnated as any Boomer or Millennial?

29 Personal views If selection were random, I d chose being Millennial The previous generation both gives and takes. Arguably it has, overall, given more than taken. And that s a good thing Consequently, policy settings do not obviously unfairly favour Boomers A possible future rise in my average Millennial tax rate of (at the most) say 5-10 percentage points, lasting for 20 odd years to pay Boomer pensions is a minor issue of a particular well-being input

30 Personal views, contd For reasons other than Boomer versus Millennial fairness, I favour raising the age of pension eligibility for Boomers to 67 and indexing it to life expectancy Global warming is a more serious negative collective legacy for future generations (not just Millennials) by past generations (including Boomers and Millennials, amongst others)

31 Thank you for attending. Debate two: Economic evidence should play a greater role in health policy evaluation 20 May 2015, pm